FanPost

mcrose's Top 20 Tribe Prospects: 1-10


I posted my 2017 Top 20 Tribe Prospects Overview fanpost yesterday, with a look back at my 2016 top 20 and some brief comments of the current state of the Indians’ farm system as a whole. I’ll post my 11-20 prospect rankings next week, but without further ado, here is my top 10 Tribe prospects for 2017:

1 - Francisco Mejia. Mejia has already garnered the top spot in the ongoing LGT poll, and I’d wager he gets the top spot on most online rankings as well. The reason for this is pretty simple - Francisco, without a doubt, had THE breakout campaign of any Tribe prospect this past year. Across two levels, low-A Lake County and high-A Lynchburg, he posted a 382/514 obp/slg (896 ops), anchored by a (full season) system high .342 batting average and an historic 50 game hit streak that catapulted him into national attention and (thankfully unconsummated) trade deadline headliner deals. Not only did he have the best season at the plate of any Tribe farmhand, he did this while being an everyday catcher, featuring an arm that is ranked 80 (elite) by some scouts and throwing out greater than 40% of would be base stealers. All at the tender age of 20.

At the plate, Mejia shows no real split as a switch hitter, albeit with more power from the left hand side. Although small of stature (5’9 180), he generates impressive bat speed that launched 29 doubles, 4 triples (yes, he can run too) and 11 homers (one of which travelled close to 500 feet pulled to right). But as the 50 game streak indicates, Mejia regularly puts the bat on the ball and, while a relatively free swinger, commands the strike zone, striking out less than 15% of the time and taking walks when he doesn’t get a pitch to his liking. It is interesting to note that both his K-rate and BB-rate actually improved upon promotion. Weaknesses? Some gossip about being hard to coach, but from what I saw (milb.tv everybody - worthy investment!) he takes his catching duties seriously and loves being the onfield QB, keeping his pitchers in synch and baserunners honest. He is still progressing on blocking and framing pitches, but I have no doubt catcher is his position and he will be the Tribe’s starting backstop after the Gomes/Perez reign. He may start the season at Lynchburg again, depending on how the brass view Eric Haase, but the majority of 2017 he’ll be at AA Akron. He’s definitely headstrong and cocksure, but as long as he buys into the program, the sky’s the limit for Francisco Mejia.

2 - Bradley Zimmer. Getting two paragraphs by me last year (reserved for the first slot) and ranked #1 by pretty much everybody, Zimmer came into 2016 with high expectations. He was drafted in the first round in 2014 with a scout profile of good hitter/power lacking. Well guess what - the draft scouts were wrong. Despite teasing us the first year or so, Zimmer is not a .300 hitter, but he does have power, generated from a lanky 6’4 frame and a pretty even swing plane that can produce high level exit velocities when he connects. The problem is getting that connection. Bradley’s swing looks great, but his reaction time is not ideal and he has trouble (at this point, 1000 at bats in) adjusting to offspeed pitches. This led to exposure at AA (28% K rate over 400 at bats) and even more so at AAA (37% K rate over 150 ab’s), and a general diminution of his prospect status. But young mister Zimmer was not at rest in 2016, he was working - his walk rate increased as well, eclipsing yonder Yandy for best in the system (14.7% over 650 ab’s) when all was said and done. Combined with 38 steals, excellent outfield play and what I think is an unrepresentative AAA debut, Zimmer has all the tools, and the room for adjustments to be made yet, to retain his high ranking. I fully expect him to post better AAA numbers from the getgo this year, and perhaps don a Tribe uniform in Cleveland in 2017.

3 - Triston Mckenzie. M-K (accent on "K") is a lonnnng drink of water. Sandwiched between Brady Aiken and Juan Hillman in the 2015 draft, far ahead of each right now. Just turned 19 a few months ago, stands 6’5 and a 165 pounds, all arms and legs and is really smart. Kinda like the grade school pitcher in the Keanu Reeves baseball movie but doesn’t need the headphones or Keanu’s advice. Just the best pitcher in the short season NY-Penn league by far (0.55 era, 55 k’s in 49 innings), only improved his peripherals upon promotion to full season Lake County (49 k’s and 6 walks in 34 innings), and basically proved himself to be one of the best starting pitching prospects in all of baseball. Fastball at 91-95 from the right side, great curve and developing change, with excellent control, he has all the ingredients to be a front line starter. Best RH pitching prospect since Adam Miller (may his middle finger rest in peace). Only thing from keeping him (Triston) from the #1 ranking is a few pounds and the perennial TINSTAAPP. But, he has an effortless delivery and displays a prodigal understanding of sequencing, so I’m really looking forward to what he does in his first full season. He could easily make it to high-A as a teenager in 2017 if he dominates like he did last year. Pray for health, it’s really all he needs.

4 - Bobby Bradley. The fifth pick (3rd round) of an excellent 2014 draft, Bobby Bradley came out of a Gulfport Mississippi high school with a reputation for power. As in, he had the power, and would be a tough sign. But he did sign, and a few weeks later started putting up the best AZL rookie league campaign that league has perhaps ever seen, playing first base, the only position he can at 6’1 225. He got MVP honors, with a 361/426/652 triple slash with 16 walks and only 36 k’s in 155 ab’s that immediately put him on top prospect lists all over the map. A year later, skipping short-season, he debuted at age 18 at full season Lake County and posted an 890 ops with 27 dingers, 56 walks and 148 k’s in 400 ab’s. Do you see the progression yet? 2016 at high-A age 19 (turned 20 in late May), he posted 29 dingers, 75 walks and 170 k’s in 485 ab’s. That’s a lot of home runs, a lot of walks, and a lot of strikeouts. 29.7% k-rate, to be exact - unsustainable if it continues. The caveat is that he’s still very young for the league he’s playing in, and is a very dangerous hitter. He got MVP in the Carolina League this year as well, because opposing managers and coaches knew just how dangerous he was. He’s not Aguilar or Nellie Rodriguez - he has more potential, and he has what everyone wants - easy power. It’s up to him to make the adjustments and cut down on the strikeouts, but his ceiling is still high. This year at AA Akron will tell the tale.

5 - Yandy Diaz. The occult Yandy. Nobody quite knows his history - a low profile international signing out of Cuba (defector) for $300K in 2013 at a relatively advanced age. Debuted at high-A at age 22. His dad defected too - many years earlier and played pro ball in the states but never made it to the big time. Yandy doesn’t want to talk about it and apparently hasn’t talked to his dad either, in many years. But Yandy is now poised to do what his dad didn’t - make it to the big leagues. His calling card is elite on base skills (career obp north of .400) and all around athleticism, playing 2B (Cuba), 3B (minors), and all OF positions (AAA and just completed winter league). He has a strong arm, quick feet, good defensive skills (voted top 3B in minor league play), but his rise in this ranking is due to what he did in 2016 and what he offers to Cleveland in 2017. He started the past year in AA Akron, was quickly promoted to AAA, where he fell a few at bats short of the batting crown, logging a .325 BA (860 ops) over 360 at bats. That, combined with his telling placement in CF in the Venezuela league (just completed) where he posted a 371/451/510 triple slash, puts him squarely in the sights of the Cleveland brass, looking for internal options in the outfield this year. Power is yet to come, but he bats from the right side and posts excellent numbers against lefties. It’s easy to see if Michael Brantley doesn’t return to form,Yandy might see plenty of time in Cleveland next year. And who knows - maybe he’ll invite his dad to see him fulfill a dream deferred? That would make a great story.

6 - Greg Allen. Allen was tutored by Tony Gwynn as a collegiate at San Diego State, drafted 5 rounds behind Bradley Zimmer in 2014, and has manned a stellar centerfield in the Tribe farm system ever since, arguably the best in the system, in fact named the best CF in all minor league baseball by Rawlings/Milb this past year. A prototype switch-hitting leadoff hitter, Allen gets on base at a .400 clip, steals bases (45 this past year) and generally does all you can ask from a player at a premium defensive position. Has sneaky pull power from the left side, pretty even splits L/R and K/BB, nothing that lights up the prospect hype (altho continual "fringe five" on fangraphs), but has maintained his performance level through the crucible of AA and deserves a promotion to AAA. That will depend on the FO’s commitment to Zimmer in CF. Personally, I would love to see an opening day Columbus lineup of Yandy in LF, Allen in CF, and Zimmer in RF. All of them could see time in Cleveland in 2017. Allen is the purest centerfielder of the bunch, and while comparisons to Kenny Loften might be a little exaggerated, he certainly fits the mold.

7 - Yu Cheng Chang. Yu ("you?" in an alternate universe Abbott and Costello would rewrite their routine with him in mind) is a bit of a trailblazer. Taiwanese baseball players have made it to the major leagues (CC Lee anybody?), but no position player has made any impression, mainly because they can’t/haven’t hit. Chang can hit. Signed for $500K out of the Taiwan development leagues, he played second fiddle to Bobby Bradley in the marvelous 2014 AZ rookie league campaign, posting a .986 ops as an 18 year old and similarly (and unusually) skipped short season to debut at Lake County in 2015, where he played a meh shortstop but clubbed 30 extra base hits. Come 2016, he graduates with Bradley to high-A, and clubs 51 extra base hits (30 doubles, 8 triples, 13 home runs), while still manning a somewhat robotic yet increasingly effective (less errors, more runs saved) shortstop. The manager always puts him near the middle of the order. He’s a good hitter, will be the starting SS at AA at age 21 while still figuring out the local lingo. He’s a stringy 6’1 with some muscle waiting to put on, and I’m not sure if he’ll stick at short, but the hitting talent is undeniable. I’m rooting for him to be the first non-pitcher major league Taiwanese player to make an impression.

8 - Will Benson. Surprise #1 draft pick last year. Ranked nationally below our #2 pick Nolan Jones. Most analysts thought it would be a great draft if we picked them in reverse order. But in hindsight we couldn’t - Benson wouldn’t have been on the board by then and luckily Jones dropped due to signability and "north prep" concerns. So, backwards kudos to Brad Grant and staff. However, it was clear they liked Benson for the first pick, had a personal tryout and were impressed by his character and makeup, not to mention his 6’6 stature, elite athletic skills, and his preference for baseball over basketball. After the draft, I watched highlights of him playing basketball for Westminster, GA and hitting baseballs in summer league and frankly was in awe of his… basketball skills. So I followed him and Nolan close in the AZ league, and it was apparent that Benson is a superior athlete, and has a huge ceiling as a baseball player. Comparing him to say, Clint Frazier, same region and competition in high school: Frazier lived only baseball, with all the coaching from a young age, with great tools - Benson has better tools (bigger, faster, stronger arm, same power potential) and has yet to get the same degree of coaching. The word everyone says is "raw", and he is - but Frazier at age 18 had these AZL peripherals: BB% - 8.7, K% - 31.1, ISO - .209. Benson, a few months younger, had these: BB% - 12.0, K% - 32.6, ISO - .215 . Huge upside, could be a washout and anything in between. I’d be surprised if they put him at Lake County seeing his learning curve. Expect him at Mahoning Valley next year with a late promotion to LC if he has a decent showing.

9 - Brady Aiken. I think we all thought it was a bold move picking Aiken our #1 (#17 overall) in the 2015 draft, coming off TJ surgery and the tendentious negotiations the previous year when Houston drafted him #1 overall and dropped him due to medical concerns. Which proved prescient. The crucial thing to understand is that while we drafted the same person Houston did, we didn’t draft the same player. We drafted a Brady Aiken who threw a few pitches after high school and wouldn’t throw another pitch for a long time. The big lanky lefty 17 year old with a mid-90’s fastball that he could spot with a curve to boot was now a year older and in post surgery rehab. We’d have to wait to see what we had, and let our own (notable) medical/rehab division oversee it. It was a gamble. Not a bad gamble, but a risk nonetheless (here’s to well considered small market risks!). A lot of national rankers, going into 2016, had Aiken high on lists, based simply on him being a #1 pick at one point. To me, he was still a prep draftee and had to prove himself. I had him ranked #9 last year, on potential, and that’s where I rank him this year as well. Brady proved healthy in 2016, and pitched 40+ innings in AZ and MV, to middling results - a fastball topping out at 90, a curve that was the one pitch he could strike batters out with (better than a K per inning, nice), but with a much different physique, and still on the mend as a pitcher and player. He’s 20 years old now, with a potentially bright future but no track record, and that’s why I keep him at the bottom end of the top ten. Citing stats is not particularly relevant here. The gamble could still pay off, ceiling is high based on prep performance, but the current Brady Aiken has something to prove, like every other prospect.

10 - Shawn Morimando. I guess Shawn is my man. It’s not that I particularly like him or envision him as a Tribe saviour, but every year he surprises me. It’s funny to say "surprise" since he’s probably the most consistently good and steady starting pitcher on the farm the last 4 years, but every year he advances, puts up pretty much the same numbers and surprises me that he does so. He’s a lefty starting pitcher, drafted in the 19th round in 2011 out of high school, pitched a mere 6 innings in rookie ball, and lo and behold (first surprise) skips a level and makes the starting rotation at full season Lake County as a teenager, proceeds to make all 22 starts with a 3.60 era. Doesn’t give up hits, walks a lot of batters, not many K’s. Ok. Next year starts at high-A and does the same thing - 3.70 era, doesn’t give up hits, walks more and K’s more. Next year (2014) doesn’t get the promotion until midseason, but still does the same thing - no matter where he’s at he limits hits, has a little trouble with walks (3+ per nine) with a monotonously gradual increase in K rate. 2015, full season at AA Akron, same thing - makes every start, era in the low 3’s, only now I can watch him on the internet. What I see is a compact lefty hurler who throws a ball from a three quarter slot and the ball breaks on two planes no matter the pitch - it always goes left to right and up and down like Raffy Perez used to do in in his brief spell as a dynamite reliever in the Cleveland pen - not as controlled (hence the walks), but basically the same confusing action. I put him at #10 last year as my own overlooked dark horse, and surprise, damned if he didn’t do it again - 3.25 era across two levels, AA and AAA, made his major league debut, and will be a depth starter next year, from the left side. Fastball at 89-92, decent curve and change, and they all look the same - just different speeds with the two plane break. I really don’t know if he will stick as a ML starter, but he certainly has been consistent in the minors, and IMO deserves inclusion in the top 10.



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