The Cleveland Indians outfield is looking to be the most serious weak point going in the 2017 campaign. The rotation is stacked, the bullpen godly, the infield rife with All-Stars and studs, but the outfield is only question mark. That, of course, means it's interesting, so I'm going to take a tour of all the options facing the Indians as the season approaches. First up is also first alphabetically, Abraham Almonte,
I confess to being a big fan of Almonte. It's only sort of grounded in reality, but I've written about him here and elsewhere quite positively. That's not to say there aren't holes in Almonte's game. He couldn't take a walk to save his life when he came back from a suspension in 2016, sporting a 5/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his 67 games. He also, in fact, got popped for steroid using, so there's some mud on his name. He doesn't do anything particularly well, but he's pretty good at some things and he's at least a pleasing player to watch.
He also might have the best outfield glove on the team. There have been miscues, there's no denying that, but he also had to rush back into form while the rest of the team had been cooking for a whole season. That comfort in the outfield comes with repetition, both over a career and in a single season. By the time Almonte was in midseason form he was facing the best teams in baseball in the bright lights of October. Through is own misdeeds he gave himself a tough road but didn’t embarrass himself.
As an Indian he's been worth 1.8 rWAR the last two seasons, and nearly that by FanGraphs' WAR (they don't parse it quite as cleanly) and all of that has been his glove. He's been a negative influence by FanGraphs ratings and a sub-100 OPS+ hitter according to Baseball-Reference. But he still brings value in a needed fashion.
If he can learn to hit like he did when he came over from the San Diego Padres again, and with a full spring training and all the benefits of a normal season, perhaps that .266/.321/.455 slash line will be more approachable. PECOTA suggests he will be worse than that, though he's still slated to get 429 plate appearances, resulting in a .256/.317/.403 line. It wouldn't be an incredible failure on his part, but he is entering his theoretical prime and could at least move up the bell curve. I realize every piece I've written using PECOTA projections the last wee has been leaning on the positive, but it's hard not to be positive around this team. And seeing Almonte hit .263/.324/.414 with 10 homers in 439 PA's doesn't look impossible to me. If he could be anything resembling a positive influence on offense he'd be an incredible piece.
Almonte is effectively taking the role Rajai Davis vacated, though his focus will be center and right rather than left and center. These are harder fields to play by size in Progressive, and still he's been a positive influence in those fields despite getting only 118 combined games the last two years. Without the full power of StatCast, we can’t tell his full impact in all fields, but as the below charts from his time in right field show us, he’s at least pretty good.
This shows his converting outs by difficulty, and as demonstrated, he gets his own from time to time.
This one, same style chart, but it’s the types of hits he allowed in 2016.
And finally, range in the outfield, showing outs he made.
The one showing hits normalized to a starting point do show him not being good at coming in and to his left, but those could often be bloop jobs that are hard to catch anyway. He’s not Kevin Kiermaier, but he gets it done in the outfield. For comparison’s sake, here’s Rajai Davis’s outs made by difficulty. Keep in mind, this isn’t a direct comparison since it’s from his play in center, and he got a ton more playing time.
To me, at least, it says Almonte will be at worst no worse, and possibly better. He is younger and still needs to get his payday, after all.
Many of the players that Baseball-Reference considers similar to him do have a positive spike at around 28. In Xavier Paul’s age 27 and 28 seasons (second most alike batter) he combined over 154 games to hit .264/.350/.420. Bobby Brown, who is most alike Almonte at age 27 according to Baseball-Reference, hit .267/.333/.382 when he was 29. Not great by any means, but good for a 101 OPS+.
This is all we need from Almonte, to be neither good nor bad at the plate and make some plays in the outfield. There shouldn’t be high hopes for anyone in the outfield, but there doesn’t need to be. Almonte is first among those that just need to do their job and don’t lose the game for them. Not a high goal, but you need something to shoot for. His becoming a two-win player by some way or the other could be a majorly underrated key to a much better ending in October.
Or at least a smoother road through the summer.