Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections this week, giving fans and analysts a chance to rant and rave over Nate Silver's second greatest work. Following his Wicker Park Burrito Bracket, of course.
The Cleveland Indians are slated to win 92 games according to this projection system, right at the mark they were slated to win in 2016 and two behind what actually happened. With much of the AL Central taking a step or so back, something resembling 96 or so is doable. But it's not all happiness and theoretical hope. Projection systems being what they are, they typically irritate if not infuriate because of their expectations of your favorite players. PECOTA was no different for me this year. Here's my biggest bugaboos.
By the way, I realize how projection systems work, in an academic sense. They take into account past performance, and if a player had a down year recently that will infect their overall numbers. If they don't have a lot of major league time and just broke out of nowhere, that's not going to translate well to what PECOTA expects. But let me get a few words out of it, regardless.
Francisco Lindor slashing .286/.334/.434
This from the very publication that said if Francisco Lindor was my shortstop, he'd be perfect. As if he won't raise his walk rate to near nine and drop his K rate some more. It's nice they expect 17 home runs out of Lindor, but to say his BABIP will apparently tank suddenly after two years of line drives all over the place is madness to me. Hopefully he cuts back on the bunts though.
Carlos Carrasco only throwing 174 innings, even if they're great
No, Carrasco has never even approached 200 innings in his career. He was supposed to crack that this past season but then freak injuries felled him early and late. In the interim he was an excellent pitcher. Eventually he is going to avoid bad luck and assume his place aside Kluber, even carrying the Cyborg at times. This will be that year.
Lonnie Chisenhall showing no improvement at all
I don't know all the intricacies of PECOTA, but I thought it would take aging curves into account at least a little bit. Instead it only looks at a player's past to tell their future. That means someone like Chisenhall who has only had most of one good season, and that spread over two separate calendar years at the end of 2015 and beginning of 2016, is going to look bad. Like, to the tune of .268/.319/.433.
Admittedly, there's not much to really rally the Chisenhall supporters, he's pretty much a platoon player, but he's just going to turn 28. Still, I think he could reach one of his higher projected percentiles, perhaps even the 80th with a .283/.336/.458. That's literally where my expectations have landed these days anyway. This is the last gasp for him to really have a good season with sustained success, so the optimist in me is bugged.
Sleeping on Abraham Almonte
Getting popped for steroids really tempered the general excitement on Almonte, but even so I feel like he's going to hit better than .256/.317/.403.
When he came to Cleveland in 2015 he sported an encouraging 33/16 strikeout-to-walk ratio; it eventually fell in a hole in 2016 to the tune of 42/8. He was likely pressing though, trying to add to the effort and help his playoff-bound teammates. This is another case of my believing in potential that still shows a glimmer. The above slash line is in PECOTA's 50th percentile, I think he can make it up to his own 70th percentile, slashing .271/.334/.426 and keep the glove good in the outfield. Perhaps the motivating influence of winners and Francona will give him that boost. That and wanting to make more money. This acquisition will turn to gold eventually.
Realistically, my problems with his and Chisenhall’s projections are pure optimism being faced with cold reality. Then again, it wouldn't be the first time in the last few months a projection failed horribly.
Carlos Santana's power "outage"
Okay, 26 home runs would be just great. But it's more the merely 33 doubles that bugs me. It seems impossible to me that Santana won't have at least 60 extra-base hits. Plus he hit 34 home runs and is facing a fat payday. I wrote about this a few days ago, but I must reiterate that this is going to be the big year for Carlos Santana. For PECOTA to flout that is a personal insult. Perhaps I shouldn't take a robot's data issuance so close to heart.
Michael Martinez getting playing time with the Indians
I will destroy you, PECOTA.