Let's Go Tribe: All Posts by Jason Lukehart

Indians Saturday news, notes, and links

2013-05-25T13:00:05Z

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The Indians fell 8-1 to Boston Friday night. The less said the better, I think. But for the masochists out there, here are some pertinent links:

A box score, where you can see that the tribe collected just 2 hits in 7 innings against John Lackey.

Paul Hoynes' recap from the Plain Dealer, where you can read Justin Masterson saying "I didn't feel the greatest out there." I guess that's good, because it'd be a shame if last night was his greatest.

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Other Tribe tidbits:

Nick Swisher isn't just a bro anymore, he's a dad. In this report from MLB.com's Jordan Bastian, he says the kind of things you expect a new parent to say. Needless to say, he's excited.

In Bastian's Friday evening notes, you get Francona talking about how awesome Carlos Santana is, and word on the official unveiling of the Bob Feller Medal of Valor, for which finalists will be announced in Cleveland on the 4th of July.

Dayn Perry at CBS Sports looks at video of Terry Francona possibly trying to kill a man... or maybe just give him a wedgie.

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Other baseball news from last night:

Detroit's Anibal Sanchez took a no hitter into the 9th inning before Minnesota's Joe Mauer broke it up with one out. Sanchez pitched a no hitter in 2006, and was looking to join Justin Verlander and Mark Buehrle as the only active pitchers with multiple no hitters in the regular season (Roy Halladay has one, along with his playoff no-no).

Anaheim's Jered Weaver has made only two starts this season because of a fractured elbow, but he's likely only a week or so from returning.

Curtis Granderson, playing in just his 8th game of the season because of a broken forearm caused by a HBP in Spring Training, was hit by a pitch last night, breaking his pinkie. He's likely to miss another 4-6 weeks.

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Bill Baer at Hardball Talk looks at a pair of articles on Cincinnati's Joey Votto, one of which is authored by a man who understands just how good Votto is, while the other writer believe Votto is having a disappointing season due to his RBI total. Sigh...

Speaking of Cincinnati, at NotGraphs (Fangraphs' redheaded stepchild), Mike Bates examines some goofy fun being had by the UC Bearcats baseball team. It's easy to picture a team with Nick Swisher getting into this.

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NPR's Nina Totenberg reports on the Supreme Court Historical Society, which hosted a re-enactment of Flood v. Kuhn, which you might recognize as former Major League great Curt Flood's legal challenge of the reserve clause, (which for decades kept players from having any real freedom to negotiate a fair contract or seek a different team). In 1972, the Supreme Court ruled 5-3 against Flood, but the case was a major step in the creation of free agency. The re-enactment looks more lively than your typical afternoon at the Supreme Court.

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For this week's pop culture list, I move into the late sixties (1965-1969, specifically). Depending on who you're talking to and how old they are, the country was either coming to life in those years, or going to hell in a handbasket.

6) Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid - Paul Newman and Robert Redford are often linked, so it may surprise you to know they only made two movies together.

5) Flight of the Phoenix - Jimmy Stewart's last great movie (not counting "An American Tail: Fievel Goes West," because that was just voice work)

4) Cool Hand Luke - More Newman, in one of his best roles here, playing a man who eats a huge number of eggs (and does some other stuff too).

3) The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly - Clint Eastwood and one of the coolest and most iconic musical scores in movie history.

2) Once Upon a Time in the West - Sergio Leone is best known for the trilogy of 'Spaghetti Westerns' he made with Eastwood, but for me, this one (by a slim margin, as you can see) is his best.

1) 2001: A Space Odyssey - Kubrick's masterpiece is beautifully shot, at times glacially paced, and certainly not for everyone, but I think it's one of the most captivating films ever made.

Today also marks the 30th anniversary of the theatrical release of "Return of the Jedi." If you need me, I'll be trying to talk my girlfriend into wearing a metal bikini to commemorate the occasion.

Cleveland Indians as American League Player of the Week (a history)

2013-05-23T16:00:07Z

On Monday Justin Masterson was named American League Player of the Week, a well deserved honor after he pitched a complete game shutout against the Yankees on Monday and then tossed 7 more scoreless frames Sunday against the Mariners, with 11 strikeouts. Masterson is the Indians' second player award this title already this season, after Ryan Raburn won it just three weeks ago. There was some discussion in the comments about how long it had been since the Tribe had two winners in the same season. I took a quick look to find out, and then decided to go back and take another look at every AL Player of the Week the Indians have had since the award was started in 2003.

Indians' AL Player of the Week winners:

2003: Casey Blake (June 30-July 6)

2004: Jake Westbrook (April 19-25), Victor Martinez (May 10-16), Victor Martinez (July 12-18)

2005: Victor Martinez (August 22-28), Coco Crisp (September 5-11), Travis Hafner (September 19-25)

2006: Ben Broussard (April 24-30), Travis Hafner (July 31-August 6)

2007: Casey Blake (May 21-27), CC Sabathia (June 25-July 1), Fausto Carmona (September 10-16)

2008: CC Sabathia (June 9-15), Asdrubal Cabrera (September 8-14)

2009: No one

2010: Shin-Soo Choo (April 12-18), Shin-Soo Choo (September 13-19)

2011: Asdrubal Cabrera (April 4-10)

2012: No one

2013: Ryan Raburn (April 29-May 5), Justin Masterson (May 13-19)

That's 19 awards by 12 different players. Masterson is only the fourth pitcher to be named Player of the Week while working for the Indians, and the first in five years (meaning the other 7 winners were position players). Sabathia is the only pitcher to win the award with the Indians twice, but a handful of position players have also won it more than once.

Indians who won the award multiple times:

Victor Martinez: 3

Travis Hafner, Casey Blake, CC Sabathia, Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera: 2

Martinez and Choo are the only Indians to win the award more than once in the same season. Martinez holds the 'record' for shortest gap between two awards, going just two months between honors back in May and July of 2004. Casey Blake, on the other hand, had nearly four full years pass between his two wins.

Finally, my choices for the best of those 19 weeks...

Best Player of the Week weeks by an Indian:

Pitchers

5) CC Sabathia (June 25-July 1, 2007) - 2 stars, 16 IP, 2.25 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 16 K (a complete game with 8 K against Oakland, then 7 strong innings against the Rays with another 8 K, no walks in either game)

4) Jake Westbrook (April 19-25, 2004) - 2 starts, 16 IP, 1.13 ERA, 0.31 WHIP, 10 K (came on in relief with the Tribe down 4-0 and pitched 7 perfect innings, then threw a complete game against the Tigers)

3) CC Sabathia (June 9-16, 2008) - 2 starts, 17 innings, 1.59 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 15 K (a complete game shutout against the Twins, then 10 strikeouts in 8 innings against the Padres)

2) Fausto Carmona (September 10-16, 2007) - 2 starts, 15 IP, 0.60 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 12 K (got the best of the White Sox, then shut out the Royals for 8 innings, with 9 strikeouts and only 3 hits allowed)

1) Justin Masterson (May 13-19, 2013) - 2 starts, 16 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 20 K (a complete game shutout against the Yankees, then held the Mariners scoreless for 7 innings while striking out 11)

Between the zero runs and 20 strikeouts, I don't think there's any real case that Masterson's week doesn't belong in the #1 spot.

Batters

5) Ryan Raburn (April 29-May 5, 2013) - 22 PA, .591/.591/1.182, 1.773 OPS, 13 H, 4 HR, 5 R, 9 RBI (he had multiple hits four times, including two 4-hit games, he also hit a pair of homers in two different games)

4) Shin-Soo Choo (September 13-19, 2010) - 26 PA, .500/.615/1.150, 1.765 OPS, 10 H, 4 HR, 7 R, 11 RBI (his week was highlighted by a 3 HR game against the Royals, in which he drove in 7 runs)

3) Shin-Soo Choo (April 12-18, 2010) - 25 PA, .579/.680/.1.211, 1.891 OPS, 11 H, 3 HR, 5 R, 11 RBI (in 25 trips to the plate he made only 8 outs, reaching base at least three times in four different games)

2) Ben Broussard (April 24-30, 2006) - 17 PA, .625/.647/.1.438, 2.085 OPS, 10 H, 4 HR, 6 R, 13 RBI (the highest batting average and slugging percentage of any of these weeks)

1) Travis Hafner (September 19-25, 2005) - 34 PA, .385/.529/.1.192, 1.722 OPS, 10 H, 6 HR, 9 R, 16 RBI (the first five games from this week were part of a 6-game HR streak, the second-longest in franchise history)

Hafner's rate stats aren't quite as high, but he put his rates up over far more PA and I think that his awesome power display merits the #1 spot.

It's been six years since the Indians last had three Player of the Week winners in the same season. It'd be pretty cool if this year's squad could match that accomplishment, or better yet, surpass it.

AL Central week in review (May 13-19)

2013-05-20T14:00:08Z

A.L. Central standings through Sunday, May 19:

Team	W	L	GB	RS	RA	DIFF
Cleveland	25	17	-	208	173	+35
Detroit	23	19	2	222	175	+47
Kansas City	20	20	4	171	157	+14
Chicago	19	23	6	155	170	-15
Minnesota	18	22	6	180	191	-11

The AL Central continues to be fairly closely bunched, bu the Tribe has pulled into a two-game lead. If you're the optimistic sort, Cool Standings (used by ESPN) now projects 93 wins the the Indians and gives them a 61% chance of making the playoffs. If you're the type who tempers their expectations, Fangraphs' advanced standings now projects 83 wins for the Indians, putting them 10 games back of Detroit and 2 games back of the second wildcard.

Cleveland Indians (5-2)

The Tribe started its week with a doubleheader against the Yankees. Justin Masterson pitched his second shutout of the season in the front end before the Indians feel in the nightcap. Next up were two games in Philadelphia. The first was a 6-2 loss, the third straight game in which the Tribe scored 2 runs or fewer, but the bats bounced back Thursday, propelling the team to a 10-4 win with home runs by Mike Aviles, Nick Swisher, and Jason Kipnis.

The weekend brought three games back at home against the Mariners (with a fourth coming Monday afternoon). Friday night one of the biggest crowds of the season Kipnissed a walk-off home run in the 10th inning after Ubaldo Jimenez struck out 9 (though lasting just 5 innings). Saturday brought another walk-off win, but this one was only made possible by Chris Perez, who allowed to home runs in the 9th that tied the game. That cost Zach "Rough and Ready" McAllister the win, but we're all smart enough to know that doesn't matter. On Sunday the Tribe sparred us all any drama, as the offense got to Felix Hernandez early, making him the team's 7th Cy Young winning pelt on the young season. Masterson pitched another 7 shutout innings, striking out 11.

The Indians are now on a 17-4 tear, their hottest 21-game stretch since late in the 2007 season and it's now been over a month since they lost a series. This is the baseball.

Player of the Week: Justin Masterson (2 starts, 16 innings, 20 strikeouts, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP)

Player of the Weak: Mark Reynolds (.120/.214/.280, 8 strikeouts)

Detroit Tigers (3-4)

The Tigers hosted the Astros. They won Monday's game 7-2 behind a strong performance by Anibal Sanchez and home runs by Victor Martinez and Andy Dirks, and again Tuesday, on the strength of Doug Fister's solid outing. On Wednesday, after winning their first 6 games of the season against Houston, Detroit finally dropped one, still giving them a 2-1 series win. Next came 4 games in Texas to face the Rangers. Justin Verlander was roughed up for the second straight start and didn't survive the 3rd inning of Thursday's loss. The Tigers split the next two contests, with Rick Porcello pitching well and Sanchez pitching poorly. In Sunday's finale the Tigers looked poised to earn a series split, twice taking a two-run lead, but each time they squandered the advantage, eventually falling 11-8.

Miguel Cabrera went 4 for 4 on Sunday, including 3 home runs. Since joining the Tigers in 2008 he leads the AL in hits, home runs, runs, RBI, and OPS.

Player of the Week: Miguel Cabrera (.429/.484/.964, 12 hits, 4 HR, 7 R, 7 RBI)

Player of the Weak: Alex Avila (.063/.200/.063, 4 strikeouts, 1 hit all week)

Kansas City Royals (2-4)

The Royals spent the week in California, beginning with three games against the Angels. K.C. banged out 19 hits in the opener, a 11-4 win highlighted by 5 hits from Billy Butler. After dropping the second game, the Royals bounced back to win the rubber match and take the series. Next they rode of the Pacific Coast Highway (okay, they probably flew) to Oakland. The A's had won just 2 of their previous 10 games (including a 4-game sweep at the hands of the Indians), but Kansas City couldn't solve them and scored just 5 runs in the series and was swept, wasting strong starts from James Shields and Ervin Santana.

The Royals had been above .500 since April 8, but they are just 3-10 over the last two weeks and are back to an even record. The good news is they're headed to Houston for three games, and few things have been better for a team over the last three seasons than a series against the Astros.

Player of the Week: Billy Butler (.480/.519/.720, 12 hits, 3 2B, 4 R, 10 RBI)

Player of the Weak: Mike Moustakas (..040/.077/.080, 5 strikeouts, 1 for 25)

Chicago White Sox (4-3)

The White Sox were in Minnesota to start their week. After splitting the first two games, Chicago pounded the Twins in the series finale, getting two home runs from Adam Dunn and one from Dayan Viciedo. After that game four games with the Angels out west. If you've been keeping up with these weekly recaps, you know that Keppinger had not drawn a walk all season (he was at 140 PA and counting). Thursday's contest was tied in the 8th inning when Jeff Keppinger came to the plate with the bases loaded, and of course he finally managed to draw a walk, plating what proved to be the game winner. Friday night the Sox won again, running their winning streak to a season-high four games. Chris Sale pitched 7.2 shutout frames and struck out 12. Saturday the Sox put up 17 hits (15 of them singles), but were outscored and fell. They lost again on Sunday, leaving them with a series split.

The White Sox averaged 5 runs a game for the week, their best production all season. It was enough to pull them ahead of Seattle and into 14th place in the American League in runs per game.

Player of the Week: Alex Rios (.407/.467/.815, 11 hits, 6 XBH, 1 SB, 6 R, 7 RBI)

Player of the Weak: Hector Santiago (2 starts, 9 innings, 6.00 ERA, 1.89 WHIP)

Minnesota Twins (1-5)

It was laundry week in Minnesota, as the Twins hosted the Sox (White and Red). Chicago came to town first and in the opener Aaron Hicks had the best game of his young career, blasting two home runs and robbing Adam Dunn of one with a fantastic catch. Minnesota won that game, but dropped the next two. The Twins' struggles continued against Boston, with the bats failing on Friday, starting pitcher Scott Diamond failing on Saturday, and no one in particular looking very good on Sunday. The Twins were swept, and for the second time of 2013 they are now on a five-game losing streak.

Mike Pelfrey (6.57) and Vance Worley (6.20) are each sporting an ERA among the five worst in baseball for pitchers who've made 8+ starts.

Player of the Week: Justin Morneau (.370/.370/.481, 10 hits, 3 2B, 5 RBI)

Player of the Weak: Josh Willingham (.136/.208/.227, 7 strikeouts)

2013 Player Power Poll

Pitchers:

1) James Shields (Royals) - 66.0 IP, 2.45 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 8.45 K/9, 2.05 BB/9

2) Chris Sale (White Sox) - 64.0 IP, 2.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 8.58 K/9, 2.11 BB/9

3) Justin Masterson (Indians) - 70.0 IP, 2.83 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.13 K/9, 3.34 BB/9

4) Anibal Sanchez (Tigers) - 55.1 IP, 2.77 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 11.06 K/9, 2.28 BB/9

5) Ervin Santana (Royals) - 55.1 IP, 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.16 K/9, 1.46 BB/9

Hitters:

1) Miguel Cabrera (Tigers) - .387/.457/.659, 67 H, 11 HR, 34 R, 47 RBI

2) Carlos Santana (Indians) - .300/.409/.554, 23 BB, 12 2B, 7 HR, 24 R

3) Prince Fielder (Tigers) - .277/.406/.523, 30 BB, 9 HR, 21 R, 37 RBI

4) Joe Mauer (Twins) - .342/.420/.490, 53 H, 21 BB, 17 2B, 25 R

5) Alex Rios (White Sox) - .301/.363/.558, 49 H, 10 HR, 7 SB, 27 R

The Week Ahead

Indians: 1 vs. Mariners, 2 vs. Tigers, 4 @ Red Sox

Royals: 3 @ Astros, 4 vs. Angels

Tigers: 2 @ Indians, 4 vs. Twins

Twins: 3 @ Braves, 4 @ Tigers

White Sox: 3 vs. Red Sox, 3 vs. Marlins

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Indians news and notes (May 18, 2013)

2013-05-18T13:00:06Z

The Indians won in dramatic fashion last night on a three-run walk-off home run by Jason Kipnis in the 10th inning. It was Kipnis' third home run of the week. Earlier in the night, the story for the Tribe was Ubaldo Jimenez, who struck out a season-high 9, but drove up his pitch count in the process and was pulled after facing one hitter in the 6th inning. He needs to work on avoiding going deep into so many counts, but it was still another encouraging start for him. It was also his third straight start with 8+ strikeouts, the first time he's had a streak like that as an Indian.

Here's video of Kipnis' blast:

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Awesome.

You can find a box score for the game here.

The LGT recap (chapter 40) of the game can be found here.

Dennis Manoloff has the Plain Dealer's recap of the game. Attendance last night was 34,282 (with $1 hot dogs and post-game fireworks playing a role, but building enthusiasm a factor too). Manoloff notes that walk-up tickets sales were responsible for 6,700 tickets, the sixth-highest total in stadium history. That's encouraging.

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In Indians' news from before last night's game:

Jerry Crasnick at ESPN takes a look at the recent success of the Indians' rotation. This was mentioned in the comments yesterday, but is worth mentioning again, since many may have missed it. There are quotes from pitching coach Mickey Callaway on many of the starters.

Jordan Bastian and Mark Emery at MLB.com have notes from yesterday, including more from Callaway, Jason Kipnis' revamped swing, and Vinnie Pestano's return to the club (he pitched a scoreless inning last night).

Bastain also reported some less encouraging news: Hot prospect Danny Salazar was scratched from his AAA start last night because of shoulder soreness and might miss another start or two.

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Ben Lindbergh at Grantland (he is also the editor-in-chief at Baseball Prospectus) looks at "The Art of Pitch Framing." It's a long read, but worth the time. If nothing else read through the first section, which gives a good overview and explains just what a massive difference it now seems a good catcher can make, simply by his ability to actually catch the ball. Jose Molina is the best in the biz at this.

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Ken Rosenthal at Fox Sports discusses whether fewer players reaching free agency is good or bad for players. He talks to Scott Boras and other about the extensions many young players have since of late, extensions that keep them from becoming free agency until later on in their careers. Certainly players like Evan Longoria have missed out on a lot of money by signing such deals, but I don't see any reason to be upset about a contract a player chose to sign in order to obtain financial security for life.

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Jayson Stark at ESPN lists what he sees as the best ways to improve umpiring in MLB. Increased accountability is a recurring theme in his suggestions, but improved work conditions/benefits for the umpires is also mentioned. Stark also has a thought on who should be recruited to serve as the next generation of umpires, current minor league players.

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'The Office' aired its series finale Thursday night, wrapping up a nine-season run. Meanwhile, we're only eight days away from the return of 'Arrested Development,' which debuted a year and a half before 'The Office,' but has been off the air for more than seven and a half years now. These are two of the most-loved comedies in recent years, and they got me thinking about my favorites.

Top TV Comedies of the 2000s

6) The Simpsons - Its peak was clearly in the 90s, but there have been plenty of really good episodes in the 2000s too. 'Archer' and 'Futurama' are other animated shows I really enjoy, but I'm giving this spot to the godfather.

5) Curb Your Enthusiasm - Pretty... pretty... pretty... pretty good. At it's best, it nearly matches Seinfeld, but it doesn't have the consistency of my favorite comedies.

4) Louie - Some episodes of this don't seem like they should be viewed as comedy. It doesn't always 'work,' but it is always interesting. I don't know of any show I'd compare it to.

3) The Office - Because it hasn't been as good the last couple years, it can be easy to overlook just how funny it was for many years.

2) Parks and Recreation - Pawnee, Indiana is one of the most colorful and fully realized fictional settings on TV.

1) Arrested Development - Tragically cut down before its time. I am really excited to be getting another season.

Cleveland Indians 2013 MLB Draft Preview: draft picks and budget

2013-05-16T16:05:46Z

The MLB First-Year Player Draft will take place from June 6 to June 8, meaning we are only three weeks away from one of the biggest events of the baseball calendar. During those three weeks we'll be taking a look at some of top prospects, linking to lists from respected talent evaluators, and weighing in as best we can on top players' merits for the Tribe. Before getting into that though, I think it's wise to review a few of the draft's rules (some of which have changed fairly recently) and look at where the Indians stand heading into the draft.

For years, MLB has set slot values for early picks, financial ceilings for each draft choice which they pressured teams to keep from going over. Some teams followed those instructions fairly strictly, while others ignored them. Last year, in an attempt to further suppress young players' salaries and make it harder for teams to ignore the slot figures, MLB implemented a new cap on the bonuses given out to players drafted in the first ten rounds. Each team is now given a set budget (based on its specific draft picks in the first ten rounds) to cover all players drafted in rounds 1-10 (bonuses in excess of $100,000 given out to players after the first ten counts also count against this cap). Technically, a team may go beyond its cap figure, but the penalties for doing so are severe:

- A team that exceeds its budget by less than 5% is subject to a 75% tax on the overage.

- A team that exceeds its budget by 5-10% is subject to a 75% tax on the overage and the loss of their 1st round pick in the following season.

- A team that exceeds its budget by 10-15% is subject to a 100% tax on the overage and the loss of their 1st and 2nd round picks in the following season.

- A team that exceeds its budget by more than 5% is subject to a 100% tax on the overage and the loss of their 1st round pick for the following two seasons.

I'm hard-pressed to believe any team will willingly forfeit their 1st round pick just so that they can spend more money this year, so I doubt we'll see any team exceed its cap figure by more than 5%, and few teams are likely to exceed their figure at all.

The Indians' 2013 draft cap is set at $6,188,800. Their first pick (#5 overall) is slotted at $3,787,000, which is 61% of their total budget. There is no penalty for exceeding the slot figure for an individual pick, so long as the combined payout to all players signed from the first ten rounds doesn't exceed the overall cap. A team could splurge on their 1st pick, then draft a player later on who's agreed to sign for less than slot, or choose not to sign one of their other picks at all. A team could also use their 1st pick to draft someone who's agreed to sign for less than slot, so that the team can overpay for players later on. That would be a poor strategy for the Indians though, because after that first pick, they're going to be waiting a while.

In signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, the Indians gave up their 2nd round pick and the "competitive balance" pick the team was awarded last summer (1 of 12 given out), which means that after the #5 overall pick, the Tribe will not pick again until #79 (followed by #111 and then every 30 picks from there on out). At #5 a team should be looking to land a future star, at #79 a team should be very happy if their selection becomes a league average contributor for a few seasons. With a relatively weak farm system and no other pick for so long, there's added pressure on the front office to select someone at #5 that really pays off.

For the most part, I'm a proponent of drafting the best player available, regardless of what position they play. So many of the Indians' better prospects play SS or 2B though, while the minor league pitching talent is very thin. It seems to me that priority should be given to using the top pick on a high ceiling pitcher. I also think the team should select someone they believe can be ready within the next year or two, because players like Swisher and Bourn are likely to decline by the time they reach the last year or two of their deals and talent like Francisco Lindor should arrive in Cleveland in 2015. A college pitcher seems like the best target. Power hitting would be a good secondary goal.

Over the next couple weeks, we'll look at the very best options at each position, weigh in on which guys will likely be gone before the Tribe gets a chance (the Astros, Cubs, Rockies, and Twins have picks #1-4) and try to identify a few targets for the team's next couple picks too.

Indians news: AL Central week in review (May 6-12)

2013-05-13T15:00:16Z

A.L. Central standings through Sunday, May 12:

Team	W	L	GB	RS	RA	DIFF
Cleveland	20	15	-	178	149	+29
Detroit	20	15	-	188	135	+53
Kansas City	18	16	1.5	144	134	+10
Minnesota	17	17	2.5	156	155	+1
Chicago	15	20	5	120	132	-12

The AL Central continues to be more closely bunched together than any other division in baseball. Here's a look at each teams' results from last week:

Cleveland Indians (6-1)

The Tribe played 4 games with Oakland during the week, the series could not have gone much better. On Monday Mark Reynolds was hit by a pitch in his first AB and responded by later hitting a tape measure home run, one of four HR the Indians hit in a 7-3 win. Zach McAllister pitched 7.2 shutout innings Tuesday, for another victory, then Justin Masterson picking up his fifth win on Wednesday, in a game marked by controversy after the umpiring crew incorrectly ruled a game-tying home run by the A's to have been a double. Thursday the Wahoos finished off the 4-game sweep, with Scott Kazmir recording 10 strikeouts for the first time since 2009.

Michael Bourn returned to the team just in time for a big 3-game series in Detroit. The Indians got their butts kicked Friday night (leading to some doom and gloom around these parts), but on Saturday the lineup wore Justin Verlander out, collecting 6 hits and 5 walks, and chasing him after just 5 innings. Meanwhile, Ubaldo Jimenez struck out 8 over 6 innings, his second solid start of the week. Nick Hagadone allowed Detroit to make a game of it, but the Tribe held on. In Sunday's rubber match the Tigers look an early lead and had chances to blow it open, but couldn't capitalize, Bourn's speed helped tie the game in the 9th and the Tribe won in the 10th, moving into a share of 1st place.

Player of the Week: Nick Swisher (.308/.379/.692, 1.072 OPS, 8 H, 5 HBH, 6 R, 4 RBI) - His best week of the season so far.

Player of the Weak: Drew Stubbs (.143/.143/.143, 9 strikeouts) - It's good that Michael Bourn is back, because now Stubbs can be platooned (he doesn't hit right handed pitching).

Detroit Tigers (1-4)

The Tigers were in D.C. for a pair of games to begin the week. Anibal Sanchez pitched fairly well in the opener, but the offense managed just one run in a 301 loss. The offense was a bit better Thursday, most notably 3 hits by Omar Infante and a 3-run home run by Matt Tuiasosopo, but Doug Fister lasted only 3 innings, only the second time all year a Detroit started hasn't gone at least 5, and the Tigers had another loss.

Next up came three games at home against the red-hot Indians. Max Scherzer wasn't at his best Friday night, but it didn't matter, as led by home runs by Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, and Andy Dirks, Detroit's bats come alive for 10 runs on 15 hits. Justin Verlander didn't have his best stuff and lasted just 5 innings Saturday. A 7th inning rally made a game of it, but the Tigers couldn't finish the comeback bid. They were set to win the series finale, ahead 3-2 in the 9th, but Jose Valverde blew it, wasting a strong start by Rick Porcello and dropping into a tie for 1st place.

Miguel Cabrera already has 40 RBI, putting him on pace for 185. The AL record is 184 (Lou Gehrig, 1931) and the most by any player since 1938 is 165 (which I'm sure you recall was done by Manny Ramirez in 1999).

Player of the Week: Jhonny Peralta (.438/.550/.750, 1.300 OPS, 7 H, 4 BB, 1 HR, 8 R)

Player of the Weak: Austin Jackson (.158/.200/.211, 6 strikeouts) - Jackson didn't play Sunday because he's dealing with a sore hamstring.

Kansas City Royals (1-6)

The Royals began their week by finishing a series with the White Sox Monday. Kansas City was ahead 1-0 in the 9th after getting 8 shutout innings from James Shields, but closer Greg Holland couldn't hold the lead and K.C. lost in the 11th. Then they were off to Baltimore for 3 games. They had chances to win the opener, but hit into 3 double plays and lost 4-3. On Wednesday poor defense did them in, as 3 errors (including 2 by shortstop Alcides Escobar) allowed a pair of unearned runs to score in a 5-3 defeat. Escobar made another error Thursday, but it wasn't as damaging. Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas all homered and Jeremy Guthrie improved his record to 5-0 as K.C. avoided being swept.

They returned home for a set with the Yankees over the weekend. Wade Davis was hit hard Friday night in an 11-6 loss, his ERA now stands at 5.86 and he he might be another bad start or two from losing his spot in the rotation. James Shields was much better Saturday, lasting 8 innings, but the offense was quiet and the Royals went down again. On Sunday they entered another series finale just trying to keep from being swept, but this time they had no such luck, dropping their fifth game of the week as they prepare to embark on a 9-game road trip.

Player of the Week: Alex Gordon (.393/.379/.786, 1.165 OPS, 11 H, 3 HR, 5 R, 8 RBI) - Gordon continues to be the Royals' best player.

Player of the Weak: Alcides Escobar (.103/.103/.103, 3 errors)

Minnesota Twins (4-3)

The Twins had 4 games in Boston to begin their week. Monday they left 11 runners on base and lost in extra innings, but they bounced back to win the next three. Tuesday it was 7 shutout frames from Scott Diamond, Wednesday it was an explosion of offense, as the Twins scored 15 runs (having not score more than 8 all season before then). Rookie Oswaldo Arcia had 4 hits, Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, and Ryan Doumit each had 3. Thursday's contest wasn't as dramatic, but a 5-3 win counts for just as much in the standings.

The Twins were back home to face the Orioles next. Mauer collected 3 more hits Friday, but they weren't enough to avoid a loss. Mauer didn't give up though, he had another 3-hit game Saturday, this time the Twins road them to victory. Sunday there wasn't much Minnesota offense at all (though Mauer did manage a paltry 2 hits), as they were blanked 6-0. The Twins are sitting at .500 though, which is better than most people expected.

After hitting 9 doubles last week, Joe Mauer already has 15 on the year, putting him on pace for 71. The MLB record is 67 and no one has hit 60 since 1936.

Player of the Week: Joe Mauer (.533/.600/.833, 1.433 OPS, 16 hits, 9 2B(!), 10 R, 4 RBI

Player of the Weak: Brian Dozier (.174/.174/.348, 8 strikeouts) - This is his second consecutive week in this spot.

Chicago White Sox (3-3)

The White Sox played Kansas City Monday, wrapping up a weekend series. Chris Sale allowed just 1 run over 7.1 innings and Chicago won it on a Jordan Danks HR in the 11th inning. Next the Sox traveled to Queens for 2 games with the Mets. Hector Santiago threw 7 shutout innings in the first game, but the real story was Chicago managing just one base runner all night, an Alex Rios single. The Sox bullpen cracked in the 10th and the Sox were defeated 1-0. They bounced back to take Wednesday's contest after getting home runs from Rios and Alejandro De Aza.

A weekend series at home against the Angels wrapped up Chicago's week. De Aza homered again Friday night, but it wasn't enough to avoid a loss. The Sox were defeated again Saturday, 3-2, the third time on the week they'd scored two runs or fewer. The offense wasn't much better Sunday, managing 3 runs, but Chris Sale took matters into his own hands by carrying a perfect game into the 7th inning and ending up with a complete game shutout.

Chris Sale's shutout was also the third Maddux of 2013, and the White Sox' seventh Maddux since pitch counts began to be fully tracked in 1988. You can find every team's Maddux count here.

Player of the Week: Alejandro De Aza (.316/.409/.579, .988 OPS, 6 H, 3 BB, 1 HR, 4 RBI)

Player of the Weak: Jeff Keppinger (.143/.143/.143) - His third week here out of six this season. Keppinger now has 125 PA so far and is yet to draw a single walk.

2013 Player Power Poll

1) Miguel Cabrera (Tigers): .379/.452/.600, 1.052 OPS, 17 HBH, 27 R, 40 RBI

2) Carlos Santana (Indians): .336/.437/.626, 1.063 OPS, 17 XBH, 22 R, 16 RBI

3) Justin Verlander (Tigers): 51.1 IP, 57 K, 1.93 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.3 bWAR

4) Anibal Sanchez (Tigers): 45.2 IP, 58 K, 1.97 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.0 bWAR

5) Joe Mauer (Twins): .341/.418/.496, .915 OPS, 46 H, 15 2B, 18 BB, 22 R

The Week Ahead

Indians: 2 vs. Yankees, 2 @ Phillies, 4 vs. Seattle (series ends Monday)

Royals: 3 @ Angels, 3 @ Athletics

Tigers: 3 vs. Astros, 4 @ Rangers

Twins: 3 vs. White Sox, 3 vs. Red Sox

White Sox: 2 @ Twins, 4 @ Angels

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Cleveland Indians news and notes (Saturday, May 11)

2013-05-11T13:00:07Z

1

Last night the Indians got knocked around pretty good in their first game against Detroit this season, losing 10-4. Corey Kluber was not ready for the Tigers' lineup, allowing 8 runs before being chased in the 5th inning. Nick Swisher had 3 hits, but there's not much else good to say about it. Michael Bourn went 0 for 4 in his return.

Boxscore

Paul Honyes' recap from the Plain Dealer

Jordan Bastian's notes from MLB.com include mention of Kipnis tinkering with his swing, Raburn reflecting on his return to the Motor City, and a plan to monitor Michael Bourn's playing time over the next couple weeks.

2

At Fangraphs, Dave Cameron take a look at Scott Kazmir's velocity, location, and contact rates from his recent starts, concluding that:

"Kazmir is showing the tools that make up a quality starting pitcher once again. His fastball again appears to be a real weapon... we shouldn't assume that his walk problems magically went away... he'll always give up his fair share of home runs, but the strikeouts make the rest of the skillset work."

If you feel like being encouraged, it's a good read. The return of his velocity is what I find most striking. If he can keep it up, he'll be one of the best minor league signings the Tribe has made.

3

Fangraphs has also introduced its own standings, and they're unlike the ones you can find in other places. They provide a good explanation, which is worth looking at. The feature I find most interesting is the projected standings for the rest of the year. You sometimes see something like this, but Fangraphs has done a far more sophisticated version. They project the Indians to 81-81 right now, mostly because they see the pitching staff allowing a lot more runs than they have so far.

4

It received a lot less fuss than Angel Hernandez's blown call in Cleveland, but Thursday night the umps dropped the ball in Houston, where Astros manager Bo Porter made a pitching change and then another, without the first reliever throwing facing a batter. Angels manager Mike Scioscia was none too pleased, and filed a protest. The Angels went on to win, so there was no real harm, but it was another case of umpires missing something that should have been fairly obvious.

A key difference is that the mistake made in the Cleveland/Oakland game is viewed as a judgement call (one with really, REALLY poor judgement), whereas what happened in Houston was a failure on the part f the umpires to follow and enforce the rules correctly. MLB, probably wanting to feel like it was doing SOMETHING about this series of errors, took action against the umpires from the Astros/Angels series, suspending crew chief Fieldin Culbreth for two games and fining the entire crew an undisclosed amount.

5

I'm hesitant to bring this up, but since attendance has been a hot topic around here, and since comparisons to the Marlins' attendance situation have been a big part of that, here are a couple looks at the situation in Miami:

Bryan Curtis at Grantland looks at the ticket scalping market for Marlins games, where a huge number of the tickets sold go unused. For those of you lamenting the Tribe supposedly drawing fewer fans than Miami, it may interest you to know that huge blocks of tickets are being sold for $1 apiece to scalpers who then try to sell them for $5.

Mike Oz at Yahoo's Big League Stew reports on a disastrous MLB Fan Cave contest the Marlins held, which led to an outpouring of angry responses from would be fans.

6

For this week's non-baseball topic, I'll turn back to running through film history, this time entering the 1960s, a decade that saw the rise of the spy movie, heist flick, and spaghetti western and more elaborate and involving science fiction and fantasy.

At this point , I feel like ten years is too wide a span for just six movies, so I'm going to start cutting decades in half.

My favorite films of the early 60s (1960-64):

6) Psycho - Probably Hitchcock's most famous film, it's been parodied to death, but get past that and it's a story that holds up surprisingly well.

5) The Manchurian Candidate - American war veterans have been brainwashed by the KGB into becoming assassins.

4) Dr. Strangelove - Dark humor, some of the finest satire in popular film history.

3) The Apartment - Sort of like 'Mad Men,' but as a comedy starring one of the underlings. One of Billy Wilder's best films and some of Jack Lemmon's finest work.

2) The Great Escape - A fantastic cast of allied POWs plan their escape from a Nazi camp during World War II. Steve McQueen plays someone much cooler than you.

1) To Kill a Mockingbird - The rare film version of a classic novel that lives up to the text, aided in large part by Gregory Peck being just the right man to play Atticus Finch.

Follow @JasonLukehart

MLB news: Can Indians keep their hot start going?

2013-05-10T14:00:40Z

The Indians have won 10 of their last 11 games, something they'd not done since August of 2008. Their record sits at 18-14, which may not seem overly impressive, but over the course of 162 games, that works out to 91-71, a fine record, usually good enough to make the playoffs in the wildcard era. Their run differential (runs scored minus runs allowed) is +33, second in the AL only to the Tigers. They're just one game out of 1st place heading into their weekend series in Detroit.

But...

Almost every Tribe fan recalls that the team also had a good record in mid-May of 2011 and again in 2012 (and was in 1st place each time), only to fall far back over the rest of the season. The wounds left by those disappointments are still fresh. Are there reasons to believe this year might be different?

The 2012 Indians

The high water mark last year was 26-18. 17 of those first 26 wins came by just one or two runs though, which works out to 65.4%. That's a very high percentage of close victories. I don't know what the league average is, but looking at the last Indians squad to make the playoffs, only 47.9% of the 2007 team's wins were by just one or two runs and of the 2013 team's 18 wins so far, only 38.9% have been that close.

To give more of an apples to apples comparison, let's look at just the first 32 games of 2012. The Indians were 18-14 at that point, same as right now. Was there writing on the wall to say this wasn't a 91 win team? Yes. For one thing, they'd actually been outscored 147-145. A team's run differential is a better predictor of how they'll do going forward than their record and a negative differential does not predict success.

Here are the key members of 2012's early season lineup, with their numbers through 32 games. The last column shows each player's BABIP since 2009, to give a sense of whether he was 'lucky' at this time last year:

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2009-13 BABIP
Carlos Santana	.257	.390	.413	.308	.284
Casey Kotchman	.194	.279	.286	.200	.276
Jason Kipnis	.278	.352	.492	.293	.284
Asdrubal Cabrera	.333	.426	.524	.344	.317
Jack Hannahan	.305	.380	.463	.356	.297
Shelley Duncan	.213	.330	.363	.264	.308
Michael Brantley	.262	.306	.357	.289	.280
Shin-Soo Choo	.240	.371	.344	.306	.352
Travis Hafner	.255	.400	.439	.269	.307

While individually there's variance, on the whole, it doesn't look like the lineup was particularly lucky or unlucky. They were 6th in the AL in runs per game at that point, which seems about right.

Here are the key pitchers from 2012 through 32 games:

Player	IP	ERA	WHIP	BABIP	2009-13 BABIP
Derek Lowe	43.2	2.47	1.51	0.317	0.326
Justin Masterson	42.1	4.89	1.56	0.287	0.314
Ubaldo Jimenez	40	5.17	1.78	0.281	0.294
Josh Tomlin	34.2	4.67	1.24	0.308	0.277
Jeanmar Gomez	29	4.66	1.21	0.275	0.299
Jairo Asencio	18	5.5	1.28	0.26	0.306
Joe Smith	15.2	2.87	1.28	0.256	0.258
Vinnie Pestano	14	1.93	1.07	0.286	0.266
Chris Perez	13.2	3.95	1.17	0.244	0.248

Here you see a bit more evidence of some luck (a collective BABIP of .284, compared to a league average somewhere in the .295-.300 range, as every starter but Tomlin was below his established BABIP and Lowe had a sparkling ERA but an awful WHIP, meaning he was stranding an awful lot of runners. The scary thing is, even with that bit of luck, the Indians were just 11th out of the 14 AL teams in runs allowed through 32 games. Their luck soon regressed and the pitching was even worse than this start. The weak run differential and mediocre (even with good luck) pitching should have made it clear that last year's Indians weren't a good club.

The 2011 Indians

This team was a different story. Through 32 games their record stood at 20-12 and their run differential was +49, the best in baseball. The strong start continued beyond 32 games, reaching a high point of 30-15, at which point even a sports-pessimist such as myself began to think the Tribe might be headed for the playoffs. After all, between 1995 (the first season with wildcard teams in the playoffs) and 2010 there had been 20 teams that won at least 30 of their first 45 games, 18 of them made the playoffs. At the very least, a winning record seemed assured, for in MLB history there had been 150 previous teams that started a season that well and only two had failed to finish the season with a winning record (the 1905 Cleveland Naps and 1940 New York Giants). The 2011 Indians of course became the third.

Going back to the first 32 games, here's where the lineup stood at that point in 2011:

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2009-13 BABIP
Carlos Santana	0.217	0.333	0.396	0.228	0.284
Matt LaPorta	0.266	0.336	0.479	0.284	0.276
Orlando Cabrera	0.277	0.302	0.353	0.301	0.284
Asdrubal Cabrera	0.265	0.338	0.432	0.283	0.317
Jack Hannahan	0.263	0.346	0.432	0.3	0.297
Michael Brantley	0.287	0.366	0.357	0.314	0.308
Grady Sizemore	0.265	0.324	0.574	0.304	0.28
Shin-Soo Choo	0.226	0.305	0.355	0.255	0.352
Travis Hafner	0.352	0.412	0.538	0.424	0.307

The collective BABIP was .302, basically right in line with the league average and the established level of these particular players. The run differential and lineup luck don't point towards the 2011 team as having been playing too far over its head, but that team came apart after the 30-15 start, playing to a record of just 50-67 the rest of the way, with a run differential of -105.

How did the pitching look through 32 games in 2011?

Player	IP	ERA	WHIP	BABIP	2009-13 BABIP
Justin Masterson	47	2.11	1.17	0.299	0.314
Roberto Hernandez	44.2	4.43	1.19	0.259	0.296
Josh Tomlin	40.2	2.43	0.81	0.157	0.277
Carlos Carrasco	29	4.97	1.45	0.344	0.318
Jeanmar Gomez	18.1	4.91	1.8	0.37	0.299
Tony Sipp	15.2	1.72	0.96	0.19	0.248
Chris Perez	15	3	1.13	0.239	0.248
Vinnie Pestano	13.2	1.32	1.02	0.25	0.266
Rafael Perez	12.2	0	0.87	0.176	0.326

Now you can better see the team's collapse coming. The three pitchers responsible for the most innings were all carrying a BABIP below their normal levels, Josh Tomlin dramatically so. All four key members bullpen had been lucky too. The staff's BABIP was .275, unlikely to be sustained: In the last 20 years, only 11 AL teams have kept that up for a full season). The Indians were also allowing just 0.64 home runs per 9 innings, ZERO American League teams in the last 20 years have maintained that over a full season. The Indians allowed just 3.47 runs per game over the first 32, but by season's end that figure had climbed to 4.69.

The 2013 Indians

Finally, here are figures for the 2013 team right now. First, the hitters:

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2011-13 BABIP
Carlos Santana	.329	.455	.674	.409	.281
Nick Swisher	.257	.363	.457	.278	.306
Jason Kipnis	.221	.272	.413	.253	.290
Asdrubal Cabrera	.221	.290	.416	.263	.299
Lonnie Chisenhall	.235	.270	.388	.270	.294
Michael Brantley	.301	.363	.382	.346	.311
Drew Stubbs	.264	.311	.382	.360	.323
Ryan Raburn	.329	.380	.575	.417	.301
Mark Reynolds	.291	.367	.645	.300	.276

The team's BABIP is .309, which is a little above average. Santana and Raburn are both due to cool off especially, but it doesn't seem as though the team is in for a major course correction there. The HR/FB rate is at 14.6%, which is high, pointing to a likely drop off in the power department, which isn't such a surprise, given that the Tribe leads MLB in home runs right now. The team is scoring the second-most runs per game in the AL (behind Detroit). That seems likely to dip a bit, but they should remain above average.

The 2013 pitchers:

Player	IP	ERA	WHIP	BABIP	2011-13 BABIP
Justin Masterson	54	3.67	1.24	.346	.307
Zach McAllister	37.2	2.63	1.12	.250	.305
Ubaldo Jimenez	29.2	6.37	1.32	.240	.308
Brett Myers	21.1	8.02	1.59	.275	.291
Scott Kazmir	20.1	4.87	1.43	.346	.361
Corey Kluber	17.2	3.06	1.19	.327	.344
Cody Allen	15	2.40	1.27	.289	.319
Bryan Shaw	14.2	1.23	1.09	.270	.315
Chris Perez	12	0.75	1.08	.241	.253
Joe Smith	11.2	0.77	0.77	.269	.258

The pitching staff's collective BABIP is .265, which is a red flag, because it's not going to stay that low (the average is ~30 points higher). Masterson and Kazmir have been unlucky, but the rest of the starters and most of the bullpen will likely see their figures climb (and maybe cool your jets on the "2010 Ubaldo is BACK!" campaign). On the plus side, a higher percentage of the team's fly balls have been turning into home runs, so that figure should drop with time. The Indians are allowing the 6th fewest runs per game, but probably won't keep it up. They ought to be better tan last year's dismal staff, but ultimately below average.

One factor left out of all that is Michael Bourn, who's due to return today having played in only 10 games so far. Bourn projected to be the team's best player, and his return could counter-balance some of the drop off that's to be expected from players like Raburn and Jimenez.

The current record says 91-71. The run differential says 96-66. Looking at other factors like BABIP and HR/FB rate, I'd say the team is going to be better than in either of the last two seasons and finish with a winning record, but don't get your hopes quite as high as that run differential might tell you to.