Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conference

by tabler84 on Oct 24, 2007 9:24 PM EDT

I thought there were some surprises, and I'm breaking down some of Mark's thoughts for people who haven't taken the time to listen to the whole thing. [You can listen to the full audio here -Jay]

Sabathia - Shapiro says that one way or another, CC's contract status will be resolved heading into opening day next season. More and more, Jay's predicted offer (4 years, $75 million) seems the likely outcome, with the Tribe holding onto Sabathia for another title run.

"You're not going to get week-by-week updates from me," he cautioned. When asked if he would consider trading Sabathia if the contract seems impossible, he responded, "My firm expectation is that CC will be a Cleveland Indian no matter what the scenario next spring." He says the Tribe's opportunity to contend for a title trumps the idea of a big trade.

Byrd - He cleary had no idea that Byrd had ever taken HGH. He says he met with Byrd to talk about it and will let it play out. But this casts serious doubt on some of Byrd's claims.

Hafner - Used interesting language to analyze Hafner's rough season. Says he thinks Hafner tends to have a hard time "separating," which is a word Wedge and the team have repeatedly used to describe being able to move on from adversity. Says he expects much better next season; no discussion of any possible injury, so that appears unlikely.

Borowksi - JoBo is coming back. Mark made it clear that he's not the only one who makes these calls, but he feels JoBo has forced the Tribe's hand. I'm on record saying JoBo is a great guy, but $4M is a large risk for a club with this payroll when they can hire someone else to handle low-leverage saves.

Payroll - Wouldn't speculate just yet. He later added that this year's free agent class is thinner than Keira Knightley on Fast Day.

Asdrubal - Without saying it in these words, Mark said Asdrubal will start next year. They admire the way he handled everything this year. A better debate will be what position Droobs will play.

Lofton and Trot - They're gone. At least, that's what it sounds like. Mark pointed to Millwood as an example of a guy who came in, set a good example, and let the young guys learn from his example even after leaving. He repeatedly used language such as, "Even if they're not back next season..."

Dellucci - As long as he's healthy, he'll play a lot. Mark likes his leadership (seems to compare to Trot's clubhouse presence). A good bet is 300 to 400 ABs if he can stay off the DL.

Westbrook - "An easy guy to root for, and an easy guy to believe in." Kind of says it all, doesn't it?

The ALCS loss - Mark is just like so many of us! Says he couldn't bring himself to watch ESPN or the like since it happened. Awesome.

Raffy-L and J-Lew - Said these guys were on their radar even heading into the year. Says they had designs on making Raffy-L a late lefty, and it worked out magically.

Said that Choo could be a factor next year, and Adam Miller could be as well. Interestingly, used these words to describe Miller: "He could be a factor for us somewhere on the pitching staff." Again I'll ask -- Is there no chance they envision Miller in the bullpen?

The print reporters seemed amazed that the front office had heard of these great young players! Hey, PD and WKNR staff, feel free to read LGT or other great sources of prospect info.

On the Jake atmosphere - He says it was cool to watch Grady, Victor, et al get so excited by the rocking crowds. Says the Jake can once again become a huge asset for the team throughout the season.

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Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Thanks for the re-cap!

Most of it sounds great... except for the part about Dellucci. Maybe he's trying to drive up his trade value?

by JulioBernazard on Oct 24, 2007 9:29 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Well, they've made a financial investment and I think there's some pressure to see it bear fruit.

I was not an LGT regular when we signed DD; I'm curious to hear what the consensus was around here.

by tabler84 on Oct 24, 2007 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

I was relatively new to the site (Barfield's trade brought me here, I think). I very much liked it in a strictly platoon sense. I think his numbers support that optimism.

Main stats.
Splits.

by nickjs21 on Oct 24, 2007 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Dellucci Signed by Kos. Much discussion of why Ryan and I didn't comment in the first 24 hours. Some speculation that the signing was setting up a Garko trade, with Blake shifting to 1B.

My Thoughts by Ryan. Various discussion of other marginal corner outfielders.

News and Notes by Ryan. Everyone reacts to everyone else's reactions; many of our beat writers sleep next to a photo of Manny on their pillows.

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

What's wrong with Dellucci? Honestly. Used effectively, he could be the best of any of the platoon options. He was hurt.

Plus he almost faught a guy over Josh Barfield (I don't know if anyone has taken the time to point this out 500 times, but his OPS+ was 54). Imagine what he'd do if someone shoved Victor. Ohhhhhh man.

by nickjs21 on Oct 24, 2007 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: News Conf

Was pretty much a butcher in the OF.
Didn't hit.
Will be a year older.
As Jay says, don't give a guy extra credit for having had a recent injury.

by JulioBernazard on Oct 24, 2007 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: News Conf

i don't really see that the outlook has changed that much from last year, going into the season with the micucci platoon in left. michaels put up basically identical numbers against lefties this year as he did last year (.800 ops vs .799 ops). he's a good, cheap, part-time player at that position, and in that role. (there may be an issue that wedge is pathologically incapable of playing michaels in the role to which he is best suited, as he always seems to rack up equal ABs against righties and lefties, but that's beside the point.)

delucci's career numbers suggest he should do about the same against righties. i don't think "a year older" here makes much of a difference. he's not a prospect that's failing to pan out, he's 33. he should be pretty stable/predictable performance-wise at this age, and doesn't appear to be physically in any form of decline.

david ops'ed about 700 vs. righties last year in the 150 or so ABs he got. 150 ABs at 100 points under her career ops isn't any reason to throw him under the bus. that hammy pull was gruesome, but is there any reason to think he can't come back?

an .800 or so ops platoon in left, with mediocre defense, is nothing great. but it's servicable, and just like going into last year, i think it'll do fine.

by emil minty on Oct 25, 2007 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: News Conf

I'd like B Francisco to get a long look in spring training.

by JulioBernazard on Oct 25, 2007 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions

+1!

Hello Julio,

I too would like to see Francisco get a long look in ST - I don't know if Francisco has always had a history of hitting RHP better than LHP or not, but I know he did in 2007. That would be one disadvantage in having him take Michaels' spot and role on the roster.

However, Francisco would be cheaper, and arguably, has more power than Michaels, which would fit in better for the offense you'd expect from a LF, whether it be as part of a platoon or outright.

But, I wouldn't be surprised if either Michaels or Francisco is traded this offseason, possibly in an attempt to upgrade the bullpen, the bench with a bat, and/or perhaps the starting rotation if Byrd isn't brought back.

I still think he will, but there is a little more doubt about Byrd being brought back due to the HGH controversy and the fact that Shapiro seems to have not known about Byrd taking it until a few days before it came out in the SF Chronicle. Plus, you'd still need someone more than Miller to fill the rotation in 2008 if Byrd isn't brought back, and I don't know if the Indians would want to go with both Miller and Sowers at the back-of-the-rotation for an extended period in 2008, plus there's no guarantee Lee improves to his previous self or is even here to start 2008.

It wouldn't surprise me if Lee were included in some deal (perhaps with Michaels or Francisco) to try to upgrade the bullpen with more than just a waiver-wire type reliever, but someone who could close, if need be - I'd think that the Indians might take the same approach with Borowski as they did to start last season - have another experienced option at the closer's role, as Borowski has had some health issues in the past, so I'd think the Indians will try to protect themselves from Borowski getting injured and without forcing one of Lewis/Betancourt/Perez out of the roles they were comfortable in and did well in in 2007.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Oct 25, 2007 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: +1!

If you've been paying close attention to this team for the last few years, you should realize that barring an injury, Francisco will start next season in Buffalo to give us extra depth.

The only thing that could change that is if the Indians believe that another minor leaguer can take Francisco's place on the depth chart. Note that aside from Ben/Franklin, our most advanced outfielders all bat lefty -- Van Every, Cooper, Snyder, Panther, and Choo.

The next most advanced righty outfielder we have is Barton, and there's no way the Indians consider him a solid depth option for the majors in April and May.

by Jay on Oct 25, 2007 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point!

Hello Jay,

You make a good point about the depth at AAA.

Is it safe to presume that Michaels is virtually a lock to remain on this ballclub then or is it possible he's trade bait?

I still think they may try to find someone to share the closer's duties with Borowski, and possibly without inserting Betancourt, Perez, or Lewis into dual-closer/back-up closer role. I would think Betancourt would be the likeliest to share that role with Borowski if they don't look outside the organization, but I still think they'll try to protect themselves against a possible Borowski injury.

I guess my main question is - is there someone out there in the FA market who could fit that role and provide the Indians with a experienced backup option to the closer's role (like Foulke was last year) in case Borowski either becomes injured or is ineffective for a long period of time?

That's why I'm thinking Michaels or Francisco could possibly be trade bait, along with someone like Lee, who seems to be on the bubble in terms of staying with this organization, partly because he's been ineffective, but as mentioned by someone else, his bullheadedness at times to listen to the coaches and implement the adjustments they're trying to get him to make.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Oct 25, 2007 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Good point!

I think it's possible Michaels is trade bait.

I don't see where this club has room on it for Michaels, Blake and Marte, unless they're prepared to make Marte a 1B/3B utility guy. And if they do that, then they only have room for four outfielders -- and they'd still have to trade either Michaels or Choo.

Look at this way. We've only got four bench spots, and two of them will be reserved for Shoppach and a middle infield guy, which could be a Rivas or a Gomez or a Barfield. (Asdrubal makes this possible by starting at 2B and subbing at SS.)

So that means we have a total of five spots for LF, RF, 3B and "other," and Gutierrez and Dellucci are more or less locks for two of them.

So if (a) nobody is traded, and (b) Blake remains the starting 3B, then you've got Marte as the second utility guy. That then prevents you from having a fifth outfielder (Choo or Francisco) or fourth versatile infielder (Gomez?). It also gives you an all-right-handed bench.

You have to wonder if that's really the configuration they want for their position players. It seems to me that it's acceptable, but not ideal, which suggests that they'll explore the trade market but not necessarily push it.

Then again, if they retain Gomez, then they've already jettisoned the above configuration as an option. At that point, they pretty much have to trade two guys among Michaels, Blake, Marte and Choo. Or Dellucci, I guess, but I just don't see that happening.

Michaels seems like the logical one to go, but Blake will make more money in 2008 and also would yield more in a trade. Blake is the logical one to keep because he provides depth in both the outfield and at third base. Problem is, we don't really need outfield depth.

by Jay on Oct 25, 2007 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd like to see them keep Gomez around!

Hello Jay,

Great points again! :-)

I'd really like to see them keep Gomez around; he can play all over the INF (and solidly as well,) plus I like his quick, compact stroke - I think it works well off of the bench. I personally thought he would get a start in Game 4 against Wakefield, based on his past success against him, Peralta's lack of success against him, and Cabrera's unfamiliarity with him, but it worked out well for us anyway.

Trading Blake - hmm... that would be interesting, though I don't know - I think the main question is, can Marte be the consistent power-hitting force he was projected to be when we acquired him? That's why I think perhaps Blake will remain - I'm not sure we can answer that question with any strong degree of certainty that Marte will be that force - he showed a bit of progress last year when he came up (SSS understood,) but I'm not sure they'd be very willing to trade Blake, a fan and clubhouse favorite (though like Crisp, that wouldn't stop the Indians from trading him if they felt it would improve the ballclub,) unless they were overwhelmed with an offer that they felt would improve the ballclub by a good margin.

The only thing against Blake, as has been mentioned on here before, is that his value probably won't get much, if any, higher than it is now, so if there would be a time to trade him for value, now would probably be the best time, but I think the uncertainty surrounding Marte would prevent them from doing that, not unless they feel comfortable having Gomez as the primary backup or are willing to give Peralta a full-time shot at 3B, moving Cabrera over to SS, have Barfield be the full-time 2B, and have Marte split time at 1B/3B, which would shift Garko in and out of the lineup and have Peralta/Cabrera/Barfield shifting often (something I really can't see happening in any circumstance,) but I doubt they would make that drastic of a move (Peralta to 3B is the move I'm referring to) this upcoming season in a year where they're expected to return to the postseason.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Oct 25, 2007 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: I'd like to see them keep Gomez around!

Beating a dead horse, I realize, but:

What exactly is Gomez's value? With a bat, he sucks. Like, Lindsay Lohan in knee pads. With a glove, is he outstanding? Or just praised because he's versatile? I'm not being snarky with the glove thing; I truly don't know.

by tabler84 on Oct 25, 2007 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I like the fact his bat is low maintenance, plus

he plays solid enough defense at all 4 INF spots (3B to 1B.)

Hello tabler84,

Besides that, he seems to know the strike zone based on his BB/K ratios (SSS understood) and he's hit for a decent BA over the last few years, and even decent OPS (700s and 800s) coming off the bench while with Baltimore in 2006 and 2007. His OPS was only .599 with us, but he only had 53 ABs.

He seems to be able to put up quality ABs even when he doesn't play regularly, something that I like to have coming off the bench. Plus, he'd probably be able to be signed cheaply, and the fact that Nixon and Lofton likely won't be back next year, if one wanted to insert Blake as an everyday OFer (LF probably) and Marte at 3B or if one wanted to trade Blake, I think Gomez's versatility could be a good thing - he played solidly whether they put him on the INF last year, so I think he could be a useful piece off the bench.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Oct 26, 2007 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Good point!

Unless Marte starts hitting out of no where I don't think we should even consider him being on the Major League roster on the Indians any time soon.

My wish list. Jhonny Peralta to 3rd Cabrera to SS and go get Jason Bay. LGT resident kineisologist

by E5 on Oct 25, 2007 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions

That's part of the problem, though!

Hello E5,

Marte is out-of-options in 2008, so he HAS to stick on the roster or otherwise, the Indians risk losing him, and I would think they'd prefer to get something for Marte rather than nothing, so unless he totally falls off the wayside, I'd think he'd have to be on the roster.

Otherwise, the Indians should consider making a trade involving him now before they find themselves in a similar situation as they did with Brandon Phillips. However, I think they are committed to Marte, which is all the more reason why I think he'll be on the 2008 roster - hopefully, he'll produce enough on a regular basis so that he'll be more than just a part-time player.

Essentially, this is a very big year for Marte - he has to start delivering on that potential, or otherwise, he will be moreless a bust, and could be forced out soonafter as Hodges, Mills, and Rodriguez will probably all see AA this season, and solid shots Hodges and Rodriguez could even see AAA this season as well if they get off to great starts at AA.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Oct 26, 2007 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: That's part of the problem, though!

I did not realize he was out of options. Wonderful!

My wish list. Jhonny Peralta to 3rd Cabrera to SS and go get Jason Bay. LGT resident kineisologist

by E5 on Oct 26, 2007 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Good point!

A bench of Marte, Choo, Shoppach, and Barfield/Gomez. That works, no? I'd be happy with that, depending on Choo's recovery.

by dgcambridge on Oct 26, 2007 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Good point!

That's a useful bench, but if Marte doesn't get a significant amount of ABs this year, we might not know (or ever know) if he's going to be able to produce as an everyday player.

It's too bad that he didn't light AAA on fire this season and make the decision easier.

by tabler84 on Oct 26, 2007 5:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Good point!

I think Lee is gone, due to his intransigence (obvious earlier this year, simmering below the surface past years). I would like to see Jmike replaced by Francisco, but, as Jay mentioned above, there is no one directly below Francisco to serve as depth (unless, perhaps, Blake could serve as the depth at RF, 3B, and LF).

I think we are in for a pretty boring offseason, despite the rumors that will surround our excess starting pitching (if there is such a thing). I don't profess to know what Lee's trade value is, but perhaps it could be for a reliever with a solid track record, as I don't see us trading anyone else in a package with Lee.

I also think the offseason being boring is a good thing, despite lack of excitement. This is a pretty good young team.

by bewwolv on Oct 25, 2007 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Good point!

I think often, evidently.

by bewwolv on Oct 25, 2007 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Good point!

Ya think?

by Jay on Oct 25, 2007 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Good point!

Couldn't tell by talking to me.

by bewwolv on Oct 25, 2007 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Link.

And oops -- here's the link.

http://www.cleveland.com/sports/audio/index.ssf?/sports/audio/tribe1.html

by tabler84 on Oct 24, 2007 9:30 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-

Asdrubal will play no other position but 2b, barring an injury or trade. I am fairly certain it will not even be slightly debated.

by Joe on Oct 24, 2007 9:36 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Tabler, you're an invaluable signal-to-noise filter for all things media related. Thanks for the work. It's much appreciated.

by osoc13 on Oct 24, 2007 10:07 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season

My question is where does Choo play next year? How does he find time if Delucci is getting 300-400 at bats?

Maybe he spells Gutz against against righties?

Either way, it looks like barring any injuries it's going to be another crowded outfield.

by Pronktastic on Oct 24, 2007 10:13 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season

Well, I've been wrong many times before, and am sure to be many times in the future, but I just don't get the sense that there is much enthusiasm in the FO for Choo. Yes, he was hurt, but he's a limited player who basically has to platoon. At this point, so long as Dellucci is on the roster, he has no place on the team. I don't think that there's any way that the Indians platoon Gutz. (at least not to start the season).

And thanks to tabler84 for the rundown.

Railing against the sacrifice bunt since 2000.

by jdudas on Oct 24, 2007 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season

I think I may be in denial about it. For some reason I have this irrational love of Choo.

by Pronktastic on Oct 24, 2007 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season

ditto.

by osoc13 on Oct 24, 2007 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season

Trade, then?

And Pronktastic, it's okay. I do love the nickname opportunities. But sometimes we have to consider what's best for the team, not just the game threads.

by nickjs21 on Oct 24, 2007 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News

Marte v. Blake at 3rd is my biggest question mark going into next season, but that's something that's going to be figured out on a touch-and-go basis when spring training starts.

Dellucci strikes me as a guy destined to lose his job to a younger player (and quickly, if his OPS is anywhere near .679 again), either Francisco or Choo. Next year's version of Nixon, minus the pies.

by maledicta on Oct 24, 2007 10:42 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

It's not that I'm not a fan of the new poll, Jay/Ryan, but it's just very hard to pick one.

by nickjs21 on Oct 24, 2007 10:44 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

And yet recent history suggest not a lot of guys will get traded.

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

We all know that "depth" has been the hot buzzword for Shaprio in the last 3 months. Yet every offseason I can't help but look at who will be traded, not who might.

by nickjs21 on Oct 24, 2007 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

I don't think Lee goes just on my hunch/belief that you don't trade SP depth (even replacement level) because you never know when you're going to need it.

It's just too valuable the league over.

However, Lee's insolent disposition could make him more or less expendable.

by emd2k3 on Oct 25, 2007 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Review

Borowski's and Fultz's options seem to be complete no-brainers. It's like, if the 07/08 offseason is supposed to be worse than the 06/07 offseason in terms of worse available talent perhaps even further driving up price, than what's not to like.

Hell, last year's off-season netted Roberto Hernandez for basically the same dollars that we would give Borowski for the 08 option. The 08 Borowski role would obviously scream transition the torch to Jensen Lewis or someone at some point, but the Indians don't hand closer jobs out lightly.

by cheech99 on Oct 24, 2007 10:53 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Losing the ALCS dovetailed nicely with the evacuation order for my township (SD fires). Nothing burned down! Wohoo!

Now I can get back to feeling lousy over how the season ended!!! Just kidding. This was an f-ing awesome season and I'm hoping for something similar next year, with a happier ending of course.

by crazymoloh on Oct 24, 2007 10:56 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Yep..same here. I was dreading going into work monday having to explain myself. I had my whole department rooting for the Tribe. Whatever... I'm still leaving my Chief Wahoo bobblehead up!

by cclemens31 on Oct 25, 2007 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Con

I found it very interesting to hear Shapiro speak on these matters. I especially noted his repeated mention of the "inefficiencies" of the free agent market when discussing the fact that we don't really have any major holes to fill on the team for next year. I couldn't help but think to myself (once again) "Man, what a smart GM we have! I'm glad that I'm an Indians fan."

by Buckeye Brad on Oct 24, 2007 11:09 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Adam Miller starts. End of discussion. You don't waste an arm like that.

by Voltaire on Oct 24, 2007 11:30 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Ultimately, yes, unless a reason develops to think he'd be a stellar reliever and not necessarily a solid starter, as apparently happened with Papelbon.

But that doesn't mean he can't break in as a reliever at some point in 2008, if circumstances come together in that way.

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Right, I understand a need to maybe break in a bullpen, and I know what you're saying about potentially ending up in the 'pen.

But I disagree about Papelbon - I think they're wasting innings. Great closer, yes, but how do they know he can't be a great starter?

by Voltaire on Oct 24, 2007 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

I'll agree. It seems to me that the Sox had every intention of making him a starter this year, but put him back in the closer role owing to a complete and utter lack of a closer as they broke spring training. It seems to me that they fully believed that he would be a good starter. They don't know that he would've been great in that role, but I don't think it's fair to say that having him close games was by design.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Oct 25, 2007 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

My recollection is that it wasn't totally clear how Papelbon would respond to being stretched out. They were sure that he was worth trying as a starter, not sure he'd definitely work out -- I mean, how can you ever be sure of that anyway?

I think the most significant factors were that he really wanted to be the closer and had shown the promise to be an elite one. If Miller really had the strong desire to do it and performed as well in that role down the stretch in '08 as Papelbon did down the stretch in '06 ... would we really be complaining about it?

by Jay on Oct 25, 2007 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

I remember having the distinct impression that Papelbon had decided, by the end of Spring Training, that he no longer wanted to start. This was painted as selfless filling of the hole but I wonder if he knew something about his arm that no one else did.

Dealing with it.

by Brad D on Oct 26, 2007 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

In the SI playoff preview there was a small Papelbon piece that outlined the situation this way:

1-Papelbon was moved to the starting rotation to protect his arm. It was thought that the additional rest was more important than the number of pitches.

2-During ST Papelbon just didn't want to start, especially after he saw the closer situation. He asked Francona for his job back and got it.

3-Doctors asked Francona to put certain limits on Pap-never 3 days in a row, lower pitch counts, etc. He did but by midseason an exam revealed that Pap could pitch however was needed. His arm has apparently sort of righted itself.

by afh4 on Oct 28, 2007 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

He strengthened his arm it didn't magically get better.

My wish list. Jhonny Peralta to 3rd Cabrera to SS and go get Jason Bay. LGT resident kinesiologist

by E5 on Oct 28, 2007 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Completely agree. As much as I would love to see the Yankees allow Joba to come out of the bullpen, making him a starter until he proves them wrong is the much better strategy. Adam Miller has similar injury concerns, but you have to let him start. Potential #1-2 pitchers are really hard to find, and the reward definitely is worth the risk of Tommy John (As I furiously begin knocking on my wooden desk).

by Ghostof WillHartley on Oct 25, 2007 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

I think they do know he can be a great starter. The Red Sox are just worried about having a great closer. Just think what that Red Sox post-season pitching staff would be like with Papelbon in the rotation. Great closers seem to be wasted in the post-season.

FWIW: has a team destined for the playoffs ever considered converting a closer in the final month of the season? The team might be able to lengthen his innings to only 4 or 5 per game, but in a 7-game series, 8-10 innings from Papelbon are much more valuable than the 3-4 innings he threw (highly leveraged or not)... During the season, the shut-down closer is highly valuable, especially as the middle relievers must be protected from throwing too many innings. But, in the playoffs the middle relievers can throw extra innings with the off days, so the relative value of the closers falls.

by Spidey on Oct 25, 2007 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

deleted ... ground rules

by Jay on Oct 25, 2007 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

There is certainly a discussion to be had if there's any reason to believe that he's more likely to stay healthy.

by dgcambridge on Oct 25, 2007 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

And what's the discussion? Would we really rather have a Sowers or a Laffey in the rotation and Miller in the bullpen if Miller's healthy? Heck no.

by Voltaire on Oct 25, 2007 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Yes, your view has been noted: The more innings the better. I'd generally agree, but it's not necessarily that simple. Nate Silver looked at it last fall here and here.

But that's not my point. No one is a bigger Miller fan than I am. I don't know how he would transition to the pen, and I firmly believe he is ready to contribute as a starter.

That being said, the most important question has got to be: How can we keep this guy healthy? Are you not concerned by the last two years? We've heard a couple of times that he's recovered, and then he's pulled out again.

Of course, Miller should be better than Laffey. But I want to know if there is any reason to prefer one role over the other in terms of health. It's not a simple question either, and should involve a look at Miller's specific problems. One would expect that the larger workload of a starter would increase the risk, but I know with Papelbon, there was some thought that the start/rest cycle of a starter would be less taxing on his shoulder.

by dgcambridge on Oct 26, 2007 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

I understand what you're saying - and yes, his injury history is a concern, and something to pay attention to. I guess we'll all just have to wait and see.

by Voltaire on Oct 26, 2007 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Hafner.

Regarding Hafner, "separating" might be the most convenient explanation, but it doesn't wash with his previous seasons.

Just from memory, I know Travis has started awfully slowly in at least one past season, but he came back to put up MVP-style numbers. If he had a problem separating you'd think it would manifest in a season where he started poorly.

Conversely, he had a very strong April this year. I recall a friend saying to me, "This guy can hit .400 even with the shift. He's such a difficult out." So why would he suddenly become the kind of person who can't focus on a singular at bat and gets bogged down by past struggles? He's 30, not 20.

The mystery continues.

by tabler84 on Oct 25, 2007 8:52 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Hafner.

maybe Borowski can earn part of his $4 million by teaching Pronk how to "separate." he definitely has a knack for it.

by jeremy @ Let's Go Tribe! on Oct 25, 2007 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Personally, I think it's more a slight breakdown

in his mechanics and approach, as well as a major loss of confidence.

Hello everyone,

Talking about it some at MinorLeagueBall in this thread, I'm thinking it has to do more with a slight breakdown in his mechanics and approach - he was not getting around on good inside fastballs, he couldn't reach the outer half of the plate to hit the fastball or breaking pitches, and he seemed to be pulling way too much - he rarely hit balls hard the other way like he did with regularity in his past seasons.

Now, I think the "separating" idea could tie into the idea that he seems to have lost major confidence in his ability to hit the ball - you can see it from his being "inbetween" so often, not just in the ALCS against Boston, but even some in the ALDS against the Yankees, and for most of the regular season. He just did not look like the same hitter up there; I know I was not as confident in him delivering in clutch situations or getting things started in the 2nd inning when we had a 1-2-3 1st inning as I had been in past seasons, and by the looks of it, he didn't seem confident either. He seemed to be guessing too often on what pitchers were going to throw him, often guessing wrong. Whether that means he needs to reanalyze how pitchers are getting him out now and make adjustments to compensate for that, I'm not sure.

In that thread above, some wonder whether it's due to the wrist injury he sustained at the end of 2006, as it seems it takes a full year for the hitter to regain his old form, and perhaps, that might have something to do with it, but unless the wrist is bothering his form and mechanics, I think it goes beyond the wrist injury; it just seems he is so unsure of himself that he seems to not stick to a plan throughout the whole at-bat, which may partly explain why he chased a lot more pitches out of the strike zone than he usually does.

Whether that was due to his being intentionally walked to start the season, I'm not sure, but it was surprising not to see him readjust after pitchers decided to stop intentionally walk him as much and go back to being more selective, one of his strengths in past seasons.

Hopefully, whatever is wrong with Pronk, he and the Indians can correct it for the 2008 season - we definitely need his bat in our lineup, as our offense is considerably better with the "old" Pronk batting in the middle of it.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Oct 25, 2007 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Personally, I think it's more a slight breakdo

No offense, Joe, but I'm not exactly holding my breath for the minorleagueball braintrust to crack this case, you know what I mean? We've had our best people on this all year. Hell, we've had our middling and worst people on it, too, because you never know, the whole blind squirrel thing.

by Jay on Oct 25, 2007 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Personally, I think it's more a slight breakdo

Top men.

by hans on Oct 26, 2007 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Personally, I think it's more a slight breakdo

Is that an Ark reference?

by stuart dean on Oct 26, 2007 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Personally, I think it's more a slight breakdo

yes. I like how you refer to it as "an Ark reference" nicely done.

by hans on Oct 27, 2007 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Interesting stuff.

I don't really align with your concerns over the money with Borowski, tabler. I think the payroll pushes at least 75 this year, and the 4 to Borowski is cheaper than any other "proven closer."

I don't blame Shapiro for not wanting to walk into the season without a "proven closer." I'm at the point of throwing my hands up with regards to the mysticism of the 9th inning; I don't want to implode the season because Jensen, Raffy R, Mastny, or Fausto can't close games because it takes some kind of magical bone that only Joe Borowski and Antonio Alfonseca have.

In other words, I don't think anything is guaranteed with regards to the 9th inning when it comes to converting players. Fausto couldn't do it. FREAKING FAUSTO.

by afh4 on Oct 25, 2007 11:16 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

It's not about the inning, it's about the leverage. If you believe that Fausto couldn't convert low-leverage saves at the same rate as Borowski (or better), we'll agree to disagree.

The FO and coaching staff seems acutely aware that JoBo has to be used carefully and in low-leverage spots. He's not a proven closer in the sense you're speaking of; he's only proven that he doesn't suck bad enough to cough away leads with no one on base.

Again, my concern is that if JoBo fails, there is nowhere on the roster for him. He's gone, and so is the cash. I'd rather hire J-Lew for that job, add leverage to it, and see if we can promote or sign another high-leverage arm for $3.5M.

by tabler84 on Oct 25, 2007 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

I don't know what I believe with regards to the 9th inning but I'm not prepared to just act like it's a 'low leverage inning' and apparently Shapiro isn't either. We've gotten burned trying to plug and play closers before and I think the idea is to not lose a season that way.

If someone takes the job and runs with it and is actually awesome at it, then what do I care about having a mop up man worth 4 million? It's not a substantial enough chunk of payroll to worry about in my estimation.

I think more than anything where we disagree is on the ability to find another arm/player equivalent to Borowski for 4 million or less. Check the list. I don't think it's happening. I could be wrong but that's what I think.

by afh4 on Oct 25, 2007 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

One area I think the Tribe might be able to find that, because of how well Okijima worked out at a low cost, is Japan. Masahide Kobayashi is a RHP Closer and is supposedly very good. I'd like to see us make a run at him.

We also need to spend some cash to lock up R-Raffy with a multi year deal. He is in his last year of arbitration I believe. Extending him should be priority #2 for the Indians this off season.

I think they should have the cash to do both. My my estimate that would put them around 75M or so. (That accounts for more arb year money for Blake and RRaff, but not a CC deal)

by KevinV on Oct 25, 2007 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Have any of you heard/noticed/been told by Tim McCarver that Oki turns his head violenty toward 3B when he pitches? It's really interesting every time I see/hear about it.

by JulioBernazard on Oct 25, 2007 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Very funny, what a blowhard!

by stuart dean on Oct 25, 2007 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

He got owned in a few innings. It does not mean he could have eventually been a stud closer. I don't understand why you can't hand the job to Raffy R. He has never been given a chance to close over an extended period of time.

by Joe on Oct 25, 2007 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

I don't want to move Raffy R because he's more valuable in the relief ace role, coming in when leverage is at it's highest and men are on base. I want someone almost exactly like Borowski to close games-someone who just closes games at a clip over 85%.

Frankly, I think it might make sense to keep Borowski just so we can use Lewis, Perez, and Betancourt where they're needed most. If we could just convince Wedge that if Raffy R hasn't been used or has been underused he can also do the 9th, I think we'd be in great shape.

by afh4 on Oct 25, 2007 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

We're assuming that JoBo can continue to close games at the same success rate, even in lower leverage situations. Color me skeptical.

The best argument in his favor surrounds BABIP. However, we're talking about a guy whose shoulder is pretty shredded and needs career-ending surgery whenever he chooses to get it done. He's not going to improve; his concern will be holding the line on performance.

by tabler84 on Oct 25, 2007 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

I think that's accurately the rub and I'm fine with it.

I think it's worth 4 million to see if he can replicate his success. It's a decent bet in my opinion, and not a devastating loss if we're wrong.

More than anything, I'm flummoxed by your concern over the 4 million. We don't have big needs and I don't think we're going to be short on money anyways. I wouldn't be surprised if Shap has more than 20 extra million to mess with, and all we really need is, maybe a starter if Byrd's option isn't picked up? Some fun bullpen stuff? Maybe a veteran third basemen?

by afh4 on Oct 25, 2007 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

I think we disagree in two places:

I'm not satisfied with having a closer who can not be trusted -- ever -- in high-leverage spots. Or more specifically, one that can't be trusted with men on base in non-ninth inning spots. It's not the worst problem to have, of course, but we ought not be complacent if there are better options.
I view 5% of the team payroll as a pretty significant chunk. It's obviously worth spending if the return can't be replaced with a smaller contract. But I don't want to lapse into thinking we can get away with risking chunks of payroll like that if we can avoid it.

by tabler84 on Oct 25, 2007 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

A one year deal is almost never a risk.

by Joe on Oct 25, 2007 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

But Raffy R could still be used in high leverage situations. Just when they are in the 8th or 9th. Look at the Red Sox or Yankees. Their clsoes pitch 2 innings when they need them to and we could do the same. Raffy L could pitch in earlier high leverage situations. It could work very well.

by Joe on Oct 25, 2007 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Papelbon pitched in more than one inning exactly 3 times this season. He never pitched for 2. He maxed out at 1.2.

Rivera pitched in more than one inning 10 times this year.

It's way, way more limiting than you realize. These guys never pitch in the 7th and only pitch in the 8th with the assurance they'll pitch in the 9th. That's not even close to relief ace.

by afh4 on Oct 25, 2007 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Have I missed something? Isn't Wedge going to use his closer in the ninth in save situations, no matter what?

by dgcambridge on Oct 25, 2007 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Shapiro did say payroll will not be an issue for 2008; it will become an issue in 2009 and beyond.

by palcal on Oct 25, 2007 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Yeah we start to see a lot of the long term deals costs increase greatly.

For VMart, Peratla, Grady, Pronk, Westb, Lee

3.00+ 2.25+ 3.00+ 8.05+ 10.00+ 3.75= 30.05
4.25+ 3.40+ 4.60+ 11.00+ 10.00+ 5.75= 39.00
5.70+ 4.60+ 5.60+ 11.00+ 11.00+ 8.00= 45.90
7.00+ 7.00+ 7.50+ 12.00+ 0.00+ 0.00= 33.50

Those are assuming all club options are exercised. Those are good contracts for the most part, but still the costs do go up significantly.

Tack on CC and we are about tapped out. I really hope we get something useful out of Lee, he is a significant cost to the team.

by KevinV on Oct 25, 2007 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Anyone else find it odd that Shaw covered the press conference. I didn't know he could actually report...

by stuart dean on Oct 25, 2007 11:44 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Heh, he was probably waiting for LGT to run it down first. ;)

His piece is fine, if predictably not quite as incisive as our analysis on LGT.

Two points on his piece, though:

I haven't run the numbers on Lofton's VORP or runs produced, but Shaw implies that because Kenny is not an RBI machine, he's not a productive player.
Bud still thinks all three losses at the end were blowouts. He writes, "When you lose, 11-2, and are outscored, 30-5, over the last three games, there's nothing subtle about it. The autopsy shows death by blunt instrument." The autopsies of columnists' careers tend to show death by lack of critical understanding.

by tabler84 on Oct 25, 2007 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Ok seriously? I'm not a fan of Shaw at all, but being outscored 30-5 in three games is pretty f%$#ing embarassing, I don't care what metrics you use.

Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Oct 25, 2007 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Turk,

Jay tackled this topic most effectively, and I'll try to find his posts on it. It's lazy to say the games were pure blowouts. I'm not an apologist for the team's performance; I'm just looking at it objectively. Two of those games were very much winnable in the late stages, and one was effectively tied.

by tabler84 on Oct 25, 2007 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Here ya go.

http://www.letsgotribe.com/comments/2007/10/21/235010/19/348#348

by tabler84 on Oct 25, 2007 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Turk did say the blowouts were "embarrassing," which does not contradict directly your point about Shaw.

We can even look at that first inning in Carmona's start. Four runs scored, but it was one pitch away from being zero runs. Two infield singles, then he walks Ortiz on a 3-2 count. Strikes out Manny, gets Lowell to pop up. Remember?

I don't second-guess that game generally or the strike zone in particular, because Fausto's overall performance outside of Drew's at-bat was nothing to write home about, either. But the game does occasionally offer a moment where a difference of millimeters is a four-run swing, and that's part of the reason why blowouts need to be taken with a grain of salt.

by Jay on Oct 25, 2007 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

I remember it all too well. I've been borderline hysterical about the ball-one call to JD Drew. I'm the most firm believer in chaos theory there is, and I have all kinds of visions about how things might have played out if only that were properly called "strike one."

by tabler84 on Oct 25, 2007 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Tabs,

As jay mentioned, I wasn't really arguing your point. Believe me, I watched all those games. I remember thinking to myself how huge it was for Fausto to get Manny and Lowell with bases loaded and no runs scored and thinking "great, all he has to do now is get the sure out in Drew."

But we all know how that ended up. I agree that nearly all of these games were close, despite the scores. But 10, 20, 50 years from now, people looking at the box score will see downright embarassment (and the same goes for our 13-6 win, which was actually much closer than it looked).

Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Oct 25, 2007 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Gotcha. I just get annoyed when Shaw sounds like the average, Kenny-Roda-Lite idiot. But it's true that the final scores offer only a punch in the gut.

by tabler84 on Oct 25, 2007 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Shaw's ok as a football columnist, perhaps because of the fact that football coverage, like football itself, is lot more irrational and emotion-driven than baseball.

Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Oct 25, 2007 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

But those runs against us DID score, which can mean a lot of things:

the bullpen was tired (possible)
the team was playing tight (probable)
Raffy L had/has gone totally wrong (probable)

and on and on.

The reasons for the lopsided non-"blowouts" need to be examined.

by JulioBernazard on Oct 25, 2007 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Agreed. The rationalizations on how close the "blowouts" really were reminds me of the old wisdom, "you can't polish a turd." The "if only..." talk serves no purpose, and it can be done for almost any game in any sport. Bottom line, we (the Tribe) got waxed those last 3 games and 30-5 looks bad, because, well, it is. Your bullet point reasons seem right to me.

by Fredward on Oct 25, 2007 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Great points - Focusing on the 30-5 score misses the point. How can anyone say we were blown out when we took the Red Sox to seven games? What if the differential was 8-5?

Besides, what's the point? By focusing on the run differential in the final 3 games, are the writers saying the Indians need to do something drastic during the off-season?

by Spidey on Oct 25, 2007 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Yes, I think they are saying that. Which is laughably ignorant. If I could clone this team and put it on the field next year, I would.

by Voltaire on Oct 26, 2007 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Hoynes is in Boston covering the WS regardless.

by palcal on Oct 25, 2007 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News

My favorite part is his statement at the beginning that we're three weeks behind our normal schedule. If Danny Ferry was in charge, he'd find a way to lose Betancourt and Cabrera during the offseason, and add nobody.

by dgcambridge on Oct 25, 2007 9:57 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News

Do you prefer GMs who are held hostage by absurdly unreasonable contract demands? Do you also prefer GMs to create a bountiful free agent class out of thin air?

This discussion belongs in the Cavs thread, but you sound like a fan who hasn't bothered to pay attention.

by tabler84 on Oct 25, 2007 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News

Although Ferry never should have signed Hughes.

Ok. Cavs thread.

by osoc13 on Oct 25, 2007 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News

Wow. OK, struck a nerve there, I guess. I have been paying attention, and I had no idea that Cavs fans generally approved of what Ferry's done. I see the Cavs thread down below. I'll check it out.

by dgcambridge on Oct 25, 2007 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News

I think Ferry screwed the pooch big time in 2005, the consequences of which he felt this summer when he had no cap space and no players to deal. He made no moves because there were no moves to make, which is partially his fault and partially due to the lack of talent available and so many teams already being very close to the luxury tax. What Ferry does over the next 16 months will determine the fate of the team for the next ten years.

I have been very much against Ferry from the start, but he did the right thing this summer.

by osoc13 on Oct 26, 2007 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News

I read your comments in the other thread. (You know, the one with the wildly speculative thoughts about the future strengths of the continential markets, and so more nitpicking about LeBron's hat.) You're right, Ferry had some cap room in 2005, and so some of this mess is his own creation. If there are no creative moves to be made, he's got to get at least get Andy in. He probably will. But if he doesn't, I say the offseason was a disaster.

by dgcambridge on Oct 26, 2007 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News

Huge difference, Danny Ferry is doing the right thing not over paying those role players.

I am tired of hearing that the free agent market sucks. Do something creative, his negative feeling on the free agent market make it harder to sign quality guys. He is telling all these free agent they suck. I think what he is really saying though is the because we act like a cash strapped team (we are not by the way) that he can not sign any quality free agents. Dolan is really pissing me off and I think Shapiro is going to go like some other owner restricted GM's and leave at some point.

My wish list. Jhonny Peralta to 3rd Cabrera to SS and go get Jason Bay. LGT resident kineisologist

by E5 on Oct 25, 2007 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News

Westbrook and Hafner both resigned this year and you want to dig up the old stupidity about Dolan?

A. We are a cash strapped franchise in one of the poorest large cities in the States.
B. Shapiro has said time and time again that he loves it here and enjoys working with Mr. Dolan. C. The FA market does suck. It worse than sucks. Shapiro will do what he always does and pick up cheap pieces and hope for the best from them. It is his MO and it works.

Dealing with it.

by Brad D on Oct 26, 2007 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News

I am tired of hearing that the free agent market sucks.

The free agent market does indeed suck, particularly pitching.

Do something creative, his negative feeling on the free agent market make it harder to sign quality guys.

I don't think that matters. I would think free agents care about either money or a chance to win.

Dolan is really pissing me off and I think Shapiro is going to go like some other owner restricted GM's and leave at some point.

Are you really resorting to the Dolan is Cheap! card after what happened this season?

Shapiro just signed an extension, and while I'm sure he'd love to have more money, specifically cited ownership's willingness to give him free rein over baseball decisions as the main reason he likes it here. Shapiro isn't leaving in the near-term (3-4 years).

by Ryan on Oct 29, 2007 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Hire Gabe Paul?

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Oct 25, 2007 10:20 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Marte's hitting got better every month in Buffalo. He is out of options. So does he get another shot with Cleveland or does he get traded?

I suppose it's up to him and what kind of spring he has, but I'd hate to see another Brandon Phillips situation.

I am not a Blake hater, but would it be that hard to replace .270-280 and about 20 HRs?

The Tribe needs another starter. If they want to win 96 games again, they shouldn't count on two starters to win 40% of them.

by JamesPowell on Oct 26, 2007 12:33 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Why would you get rid of a proven, versatile player with guaranteed good production?

by Voltaire on Oct 26, 2007 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

Casey hit only 17 points less OPS than Pronk. Casey had 36 doubles and helped carry this team in May when we were still struggling for an identity.

He's like the ultimate insurance policy if someone gets injured or plays horrible. A cheap one, too.

by Toxicadam on Oct 26, 2007 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

My thoughts exactly. I don't think people realize how valuable Blake is because of his versatility.

by Voltaire on Oct 26, 2007 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending News Conferenc

the byrd situation is interesting

shapiro didn't exactly cover for him

by Freneau on Oct 26, 2007 12:37 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending Conference

Wow, so many topics to elaborate on.

Closer - JoeBo's option is picked up. My guess is that he won't make it through 08 without an injury though. And that injury will force Wedge to use Betancourt or Lewis as our closer. this will hopefully set us up for 2009 and further with a good young flamethrower as teh closer. I don't see us trading for another closer-type this winter.
Blake - He's the most dealable of the bunch. But Wedge will probably talk Shapiro out of dealing him, given his fascination with him. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have him back. But not at the expense of Choo or Marte. Franciso will start in AAA for depth as talked about above. If we resign Gomez, I really believe Blake gets dealt.
Lee - IIRC, he cannot be sent down to AAA next year. So either he's in our rotation, or gets dealt. Unless Byrd's option is not picked up, I would expect to see Lee get dealt. As much as I like Laffey, after what happened to Sowers this year, I am not counting on Laffey to repeat his performance. Please note I am not saying he will implode, just that the chance is there. But we do have options, including Sowers himself, to replace him if needed.

by talonk on Oct 26, 2007 11:14 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's Season-Ending Conference

I'm not advocating to give Laffey the 5th spot. But, his numbers were decent for a 5th starter, and were actually tilted by some bad luck stats last year. He's an interesting guy as a lefty sinker ball pitcher.

by hans on Oct 27, 2007 3:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review:

Jay/Ryan, I just thought of something.

Now that you two are buffing up your web cred (Ryan at Hardball Times, Jay at Esquire), have you ever given consideration to interviews? It's a shot in the dark, but maybe someone inside the Indians FO (as high up as--swoon--Chris or Mark) might be willing to field a couple of e-mail questions from some respected statistically-minded folk. I can't imagine a time better than now during the offseason. Once the Series ends, they'll be up to their necks in work. Maybe the hardest part would actually be getting in touch with them. Perhaps Mr. Raab could help?

by nickjs21 on Oct 26, 2007 1:14 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review:

Great idea. Bart Swain has a rep for "getting it" and delivering.

by tabler84 on Oct 26, 2007 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review:

Well, first, these guys are actually more busy in the offseason as I understand it. I wouldn't rule out anything, and we have thought about it. There is nobody in the Indians organization that I would be shocked to find out they were willing to talk to us. Billy Beane has been talking to Athletics Nation for years.

But as exciting as it seems, I have to think there's at least a bit of fool's gold in there. Part of our credibility and insight comes precisely from an independent, outsider status. Once you start developing relationships deep in the industry, you definitely give some of that up. On some level you start to have some of the same issues that the beat reporters have -- compromising analysis or point of view in deference to relationships and access.

The key thing to remember is that even if we started doing things like that, it would never be fundamental to what we're doing here. For competitive reasons, and of course PR reasons, they're never going to be able to answer every question the way we'd like to have it answered.

by Jay on Oct 27, 2007 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Shapiro

From {THT http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/2007-net-win-shares-value/] net win shares article

3 on this list:

Wright, David A $17,252,481
Pena, Carlos $16,662,239
Carmona, Fausto C $14,645,048
Sizemore, Grady $14,641,777
Ordonez, Magglio $14,475,339
Ramirez, Hanley $14,309,949
Martinez, Victor $13,780,938
Fielder, Prince G $13,230,613
Granderson, Curtis $12,628,558
Suzuki, Ichiro $11,890,016"

None on this one:

Colon, Bartolo ($9,949,934)
Kendall, Jason ($9,118,644)
Sexson, Richie ($8,840,459)
Schmidt, Jason ($8,678,969)
Jennings, Jason ($8,549,268)
Giambi, Jason ($8,545,215)
Monroe, Craig ($8,174,059)
Maroth, Mike ($7,875,913)
Gibbons, Jay ($7,612,287)
Durham, Ray ($7,177,283)

and for fun:

"Still, the Dodgers don't win the award for squandering the most money last year. That award goes to the Chicago White Sox, one of only two teams to post a negative Net Win Shares Value in 2007 (Houston was the other). The five worst values on Chicago's South Side last year were:

Podsednik, Scott -$5,869,65
Crede, Joe -$4,542,71
Hall, Toby -$4,375,03
Contreras, Jose -$4,040,34
Gonzalez, Andy -$3,993,41"

by Brick. on Oct 26, 2007 9:17 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Shapiro

That last bit is very, very satisfying.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Oct 27, 2007 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's News Conference

Just some of my ideas:

-It looks like Borowski's option will be picked up. I'm fine with that, but I hope Shapiro is willing to trade him if the right opportunity presents itself. Any team looking for an experienced closer would be a good target. It's about time for Betancourt to get his shot at closing. If he's not ready now, when will he be ready?

-I'd rather trade Barfield than Peralta. Jhonny has more power and better plate discipline. A middle infield of Peralta and Cabrera looks a lot better than one of Cabrera and Barfield. I like Cabrera as much as anybody- he could be the Sizemore of the middle infield- but reality is that he's young and could struggle a bit next year, at least early. And Barfield's bat has to be suspect in the AL at this point. At the very least, his approach doesn't fit on this team. If he's not traded, he should look for an apartment in Buffalo. There, he can provide infield depth for the Tribe while working on his approach.

I'm not sure what the average major-league OBP was this year (around .333?), but Barfield needs to get to that level. For that matter, so does Gutierrez, but he's less of a concern because he projected to 25+ homers over a full season, and because of his defense.

-I'd be surprised if Paul Byrd doesn't return. I thought his explanation for HGH use sounded reasonable.

-Since trading Sabathia is out of the question (according to Shapiro), next year's first 4 starters should be Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook, and Byrd. I'd trade Cliff Lee over the winter, and let Adam Miller, Jeremy Sowers, and Aaron Laffey compete for the 5th spot.

-I'd like to see Chris Gomez resigned as the backup infielder and left-handed bat off the bench.

-I hope Shapiro goes after Mike Lowell in free agency. Even if he's outbid quickly and falls out of the running early, at least he'll have tried. If we can (dream) sign Lowell, Blake could be moved to left field. We'd have an instant improvement at two positions. Francisco, Michaels, Dellucci, and/or Marte could then be trade bait.

by Matt Y. on Oct 27, 2007 7:44 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's News Conference

Just a couple more thoughts:

-There are a few right-handed relievers whom the Indians could try to sign, including Scott Linebrink, Troy Percival, and LaTroy Hawkins. Scott Proctor might be a good middle reliever. Mike Timlin and Doug Brocail had good years, but they're old. Shawn Chacon switched from starter to reliever for the Pirates and did well, but that was for a non-contending team. Octavio Dotel and David Riske could also be options. But in my opinion, Linebrink should be the top priority.

Free agent left-handers include Jeremy Affeldt, Ron Mahay and Trever Miller, among others. If the Indians don't pick up Aaron Fultz's option, those guys could be targets.

So, barring a trade, the bullpen could be Borowski, Betancourt, Perez, Linebrink/other righthander, Lewis, Fultz/other lefty, and Tom Mastny. Looks good to me.

-In the likely scenario that we can't sign Mike Lowell, what are possible trade targets? Jason Bay has already been mentioned on LGT. How about Garrett Atkins or Miguel Cabrera? Atkins might be available because the Rockies have prospect Ian Stewart ready to play. As for Cabrera, he's a Marlin who will be a free agent after 2009. Of course he's available, for the right price. The downside is that neither one plays great defense.

by Matt Y. on Oct 27, 2007 8:57 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's News Conference

You should be working in a front office some where. I love the Linebrink thought but he did not pitch to well after being traded to the Brewers and seems to have been abused and could be ready for a decline. Atkins and Cabrera would most likely be available but for a rather steep price. I honestly don't think the Indians have the minor league chips to trade for either one of these players. The only guys in the minors that could bring this haul is Adam Miller (injury risk) and Lofgren who are no sure things. When the marlins traded Beckett (who the Indians should have considered trading for) they received a very good haul of prospects and one has turned into a perennial all star shortstop. The Indians simply do not have the depth to do either of those trades but a good thought.

My wish list. Jhonny Peralta to 3rd Cabrera to SS and go get Jason Bay. LGT resident kinesiologist

by E5 on Oct 27, 2007 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's News Conference

How do you know the Tribe didn't consider trading for Beckett?

by Voltaire on Oct 27, 2007 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's News Conference

I pretty much agree with most of your points. Taking a run at Lowell wouldn't be a bad idea, but i agree that he will most likely be scooped up by another team willing to pay more (NY Yankees after AROD leaves? Boston, who knows). I think Linebrink would be "ok", but his K/9 slipped a bit this year, his WHIP rose, and he is likely on the decline in his career. He'd still be a nice arm to have, but I have the belief that he will be overvalued by other organizations. There is likely a better arm out there that hasn't been as much of a "buzz" name as Linebrink.

by hans on Oct 27, 2007 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's News Conference

Yeah, good points about Linebrink. I wouldn't want him at too high a price either. He's not that old though-at 31 I think he's a year younger than Betancourt. Also, although the Brewers gave up three minor leaguers to get Linebrink for half a season, their top priority will be closer Francisco Cordero.

Other free agent options might be just as risky- or shall I say Riske?

Actually, David Riske might be fine as a seventh-inning guy, if Shapiro considers bringing him back. I don't think he's ever had a bad ERA.

by Matt Y. on Oct 28, 2007 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Review: Shapiro's News Conference

thanks for pointed out the age, I didn't bother to look it up. So I'd probably hold back from expecting regression due to age, but none-the-less he still has been removed two years from his peak performance (although looking at the numbers again, his K/9 with MIL after the trade was back up near his career highs.)

by hans on Oct 28, 2007 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions