BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

by kritz on Apr 27, 2007 1:23 PM EDT

for those without a baseball prospectus subscription ...

BP's PECOTA player projection system ranks the tribe as having:

#17 farm system in baseball (taking into account rookie-eligible players only). d-rays are ranked #1.

#6 in 25-and under talent (regardless of rookie eligibility). d-rays rank #1 here as well.

#2 in 'total talent stock' (looking at all players in the organization ... but not sure how far into the future they're trying to look here). twins are ranked #1.

all in all, bodes well for the next few years, but with a middle-to-low budget, the organization needs a couple of good drafts to get some impact talent back into the system.

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Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

No doubt there's at least a kernel of truth in those ratings. But don't put too much stock in them. On his list of the top 100 prospects, Mr. Silver puts Kevin Kouzmanoff #11, Scott Lewis #53, and Adam Miller #82. He could be right, but I think those rankings suggest a flaw or two in his system.

by plato on Apr 27, 2007 2:23 PM EDT reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

Worth noting is that the only two Indians in the top 100 are Scott Lewis at #53 and Adam Miller at #82; they say PECOTA doesn't like Miller's injury history & his performance at AAA this year isn't that great so far.

The other really interesting thing to me is that they've got Kouzmanoff at #11 (whose performance this year must've been ignored, as he's currently hitting .125 for the Padres).

by zempf on Apr 27, 2007 2:27 PM EDT reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

Ha.. I spent too much time editing that, I guess.

by zempf on Apr 27, 2007 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

Good piece. The Alex Gordon at #8 over Grady Sizemore at #9 on the overall rankings of 25 and under talent is enough to give one pause however.

by cheech99 on Apr 27, 2007 4:06 PM EDT reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

Also consider fielding. Gordon is projected as one of the best third basemen. Sizemore undoubtedly will never crack the top 10 for CFers in the majors.

Mind you, if I was to pick one player to build around, I would choose Grady over Gordon. Although time will tell on that, and Grady will need to adjust his approach against lefty pitchers.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Apr 27, 2007 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

Sizemore undoubtedly will never crack the top 10 for CFers in the majors.

I don't understand what you mean.

by Jay on Apr 27, 2007 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

Seriously? Grady's arm-strength is average, but I rarely see him miss the cut-off man. His jumps are great, he plays well off the wall, his range is simply outstanding. Does anybody else REMEMBER Coco and Gerut in center? I think Grady will have a couple of shiny gloves on his shelf before his career's over.

by fleerdon on Apr 27, 2007 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

I agree he'll get a couple Gold Gloves -- he's noticeable for his hitting, and everyone is impressed by his effort. But whether he'll deserve them is another question.

by Jay on Apr 28, 2007 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

Does anybody else REMEMBER Coco and Gerut in center?

Just ask a Red Sox fan about how Coco is in center. He's got very good closing speed, but his jumps and routes aren't very good at all. It's the same reason why Choo is never going to be a center fielder.

by Ryan on Apr 28, 2007 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

That's the sentiment I was trying to express. Sorry if the syntax didn't click. But seriously, maybe we're just a little spoiled. I can see the argument that Grady isn't a world-class centerfielder, but it's tough to argue that he isn't at least "pretty good," and it's damn near impossible to argue that he isn't an improvement over the guys he replaced.

by fleerdon on Apr 28, 2007 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

Some fans focus on the one thing one of our players lacks, then exaggerate it, then forget that most other players have some faults as well. Grady is still young and learning for that matter, but his speed and routes and instincts are excellent, and he's always been highly rated for throwing accuracy, if not strength. While his arm strength is purely average, how many great arms are actually out there in CF anyway?

by Jay on Apr 28, 2007 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

Willy Mo Pena?

by Brick. on Apr 28, 2007 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

That's one.

by Jay on Apr 28, 2007 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

Good arm, but terrible routes and jumps.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Apr 28, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

Despite the fact that the outfield assist remains one of my favorite elements of the game, to this discussion I would like to add: Two shorter, good throws are much more reliable than one cross-field ICBM, even from guys with superior arms. Especially from center field, where you're often coming off long routes and awkward catches, and especially on a team with two competent cut-off men in Peralta and Barfield (props, gentlemen; props), accuracy far outweighs arm strength.

Also, from a HBT story I linked to a while back...

One thing to note right away: aside from Taveras, nobody really stood out in center field in 2006. In fact, there isn't really much difference between number three, Chone Figgins, and number 15, Juan Pierre. The bottom two, though, Joey Gathright and Johnny Damon are genuinely atrocious throwers, at least they were in 2006.

by fleerdon on Apr 28, 2007 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

Yeah, they found that only one CF in the majors saved more than three runs in 2006 -- Taveras actually -- and Sizemore ranked 8th at -0.3. The ability to throw runners out from CF is obviously not a profound difference-maker, and probably is a lot less significant than just throwing to the right place. Neither is close to the significance of catching a lot of flyballs.

by Jay on Apr 28, 2007 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

If you're just talking about defensive center fielders, maybe. But all-around game? Who's better?

by Ryan on Apr 27, 2007 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: BP's PECOTA prospect / organization rankings

que the 150 comment conversation about the ins and outs of the phrase 'top 10'...

by Brick. on Apr 27, 2007 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure I trust the system!

Hello everyone,

No offense, but rating Scott Lewis #53 and Adam Miller #82, complaining about Miller's injury history, when Scott Lewis' history is more checkered?!

Also, Miller has done no worse at AAA than Lewis has at AA, thanks to Lewis' poor start in his last outing. Besides that, they complain about Miller's poor performance so far, but did they stop to realize that Miller has made, I believe, one start on normal rest? The other times, he's had 5-6 days rest, and on another, 8 days rest. Today, he'll be going on 6 days rest, so you really can't read too much into his performance at this point. Once he starts pitching every fifth day like he's supposed to a few times, then you can get a better idea of how well he can do at AAA.

Like zempf mentioned, they complain about Miller's performance, but they essentially give Kouz a pass, even though he's doing poorly by most standards. Essentially, I don't even know why they're taking this year's performance into account when they did these rankings - most players haven't even had 100 ABs yet or 5 starts, not even a month of baseball, yet they're going to incorporate these early-season stats into their analysis to try to justify their rankings? That right there would give me pause in believing the validity of these rankings.

Like I said, they're one of the few, if not the only one, that would rank Lewis higher than Miller, and trying to say or imply that Miller's injury history is more significant or more worrisome than Lewis'.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Apr 27, 2007 4:53 PM EDT reply actions

Re: I'm not sure I trust the system!

Silver acknowledges that PECOTA is kind of flying blind with respect to injury considerations. Lewis is ranked ahead of Miller purely because Miller's injury is reflected heavily in his 2005 numbers, where Lewis' injury doesn't show up anywhere in his professional record except in his limited number of innings.

by Jay on Apr 27, 2007 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions