Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

by Ryan on May 18, 2007 12:12 AM EDT in News

Recap
Box Score
Win Probability Added @ Fangraphs

Highest WPA:

Fausto Carmona .609
Victor Martinez .139
Ryan Garko .046

Lowest WPA:

Grady Sizemore -.074
Josh Barfield -.069
Trot Nixon -.058

Terms like filthy and nasty tend to get overused today. Those appellations should be describing stuff that's several degrees better than the average MLB pitcher's stuff, which is really good by itself compared to all professional pitchers.

That being said, Fausto's sinker today was virtually unhittable, fully deserving of any adjective you can come up with. Carmona essentially threw one pitch the entire game, and Twins hitters couldn't do much with it even though they knew what was coming. His pitches moved extremely late in their trajectory, inducing weak contact all game long. Torii Hunter, who's faced Carmona twice this season, had this to say about his stuff:

"It's not normal," Torii Hunter said of Carmona's go-to pitch. "He's not even human. It was so scary, I thought I was hung over."

<snip>

"That dude is filthy," Hunter said. "We've been struggling, but even if we had been playing good, we wouldn't have beaten him. If you've never played the game, listen to me, I'm a hitter. Right-handers have no chance unless they get lucky and get a hit on a broken bat."

And lest we forget, the Indians were facing baseball's best pitcher at the top of his game. Johan Santana mowed the Indians' offense down with similar efficiency, until the 7th. Victor Martinez and Ryan Garko hit back-to-back home runs to start the inning off, clearing the way for Carmona to finish what he started.

Fausto Carmona has come a long way since his misadventures as a closer, and it's to his credit that he put 2006 behind him so quickly. He's not going back to the bullpen, and he's not going back to Buffalo. He'll probably have to mix in another pitch or two to have success over the long haul, but that shouldn't be a big deal when he can work them off of such a dominant pitch.

Next Up: The excitement known as Interleague Play. Lee vs. Lohse, 7:05 PM

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Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

How can a starting pitcher get a WPA over 0.5? If both teams are blanking each other, the WP hovers around 0.5 the whole game. Then when his team scores, the hitters should be getting most of the WPA. So I don't really see how a starter could get above 0.3 even. Does anyone have an explanation for this?

by MikeP on May 18, 2007 12:55 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

I don't know, but it seems like pitching a complete game shutout tends to increase your probability of winning somewhat significantly :)

by portlandtribefan on May 18, 2007 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

The first thing to look at is the early innings (1-4). Just because the WPA is hovering around .5 doesn't mean that no one is gaining WPA. Every time Carmona shut them down, he added a little bit to his WPA. Santana would then gain that WPA back for the twins by shutting the tribe down.

As the innings get later and later (look at the 6th and 7th), things start getting more important. Carmona just keeps adding and adding. Each inning he is totalling more WPA. So was Santana, which explains why he can still have a positive WPA despite giving up the game winning hit. Plus, by just finishing the game off, Carmona got another .10 in WPA.

If you look at individual innings, I would say Carmona went .05, .05, .05, .05, .07, .07, .07, .07, .12. That was by no means scientific, but I think it makes sense. Every scoreless inning he pitched added WP, and as the innings got later and later he was adding more and more.

I know this was long-winded, so sorry, but I thought this was another good game for WPA. If you only score 2 runs, your offense should have a negative WPA. If you give up 0 runs, your pitching WPA should be off the charts. The totals for both teams accurately represent this sentiment.

by The Animal on May 18, 2007 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

WPA adds up the changing probabilities of each plate appearance, not the change at the start and end of a pitcher's whole appearance.

Eight times, Carmona finished one inning and then got up to start the next a few minutes later. For seven of those eight times, the Indians came to the plate, got three outs and scored nothing -- thus the WPA went down each time. So Carmona would get .05 or .07 each inning, and then the Indians hitters would lose a little bit by the time he got back out there. (Except for the 7th inning of course.) Then you get a big bonus for ending the game, since it was so close.

If you only score 2 runs, your offense should have a negative WPA. If you give up 0 runs, your pitching WPA should be off the charts.

Yes, but not as much so if the two runs were in the first inning. What you're describing is moreso the rationale behind PRC, which is dead-on -- that a run saved is actually worth slightly more than a run scored, in that the team cannot lose if you don't give up any runs.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Thanks, I get it now. Carmona and Santana both took WPA from the other teams' hitters over the course of the whole game in a zero-sum game. So even though Santana gave up the winning runs, he still had positive WPA, because both teams' hitters had negative WPA.

by MikeP on May 18, 2007 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Carl Willis really needs to work with him on his offspeed stuff. That could be the difference between him being a #3-4 starter or the staff ace. I don't recall the name of the batter but one at-bat he threw two sliders to start if off. Both pitches were strikes as the batter was not expecting his slider at all. The funny thing is he actually has a decently hard slider. He just needs to use it more.

by Joe. on May 18, 2007 1:00 AM EDT reply actions

I also noticed that Carmona still needs to

keep control of his emotions and not overthrow at times, mostly in the 9th inning today.

Hello everyone,

One thing Carmona needs to continue working on - not getting too excited and overthrowing, as he did that at times in the 9th inning of today's game. He was reaching 97 MPH in the 9th, compared to 91-94 MPH for most of the game prior to the 9th. That's probably part of the reason why he didn't do so well in the closer's role last year - getting too excited and trying too hard to finish a game off. That makes him lose command and causes his stuff to flatten out, not allowing it a chance to break down, which makes it more hittable.

To his credit, though, he is better able to settle himself down than he was last year, enabling him to regain his command and composure, but still has to continue working on it. Overall though, he's progressing very nicely, and looks to be the guy to stay at this point when Westbrook returns rather than Sowers.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on May 18, 2007 1:49 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Phillips comes into Friday's game riding a 19-game hitting streak. He has 6HR and sometimes bats 4th.

by palcal on May 18, 2007 2:41 AM EDT reply actions

Amazing - it seems he's rounded into his 2006

form.

Hello palcal,

I had no idea he had that streak or raised his BA about 60-70 points since the last time I checked.

Seems he's due to have an 0-fer - hopefully, we can give him at least one, if not two or three. :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on May 18, 2007 3:00 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

I am really gonna miss Paul Byrd. Enjoy the Senior Circuit!

... That was pre-emptive.

by nickjs21 on May 18, 2007 3:02 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Here's a pretty graph. That shows Shapiro is doing pretty well.

by rog on May 18, 2007 9:11 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Kansas City has a higher payroll than the Indians? Holy freakin' cow.

Unofficial Andy Marte and Joe Borowski Apologist. My fantasy team - Swindon SpecOps 27.

by woodsmeister on May 18, 2007 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

i like pretty graphs - thanks for the link!

by Brick. on May 18, 2007 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

The graph is pretty, but it's also a bit busy and a little hard to follow the lines across (maybe it's my aging eyes).

Perhaps there's another way to show this. What if we divided the teams W/L % by its payroll. For Cleveland it would be 1.02 (63.15% over $61.67M) and for the Yanks it would be .24 (46.15% over $189.64M).

I'd do this for all the teams and put it on a bar graph, but I'm at work and I've already used all my 15-minute break :-)

However, I believe that Cleveland would have the higest bar (best) and NY would have the smallest (last).

by kov on May 18, 2007 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Actually, Cleveland is only 4th best. What I did was take the records and salaries from that graph, put it into an excel spreadsheet and did this:

Took total 2007 salary, divided by 162 = cost per game. Added W and L for total GP. Multiplied GP by per game salary = amount of payroll spent so far. Divided that number by number of wins so far.

Top 5: TB ($330,912), FLA ($428,939), PIT ($528,640), CLE ($602,774), and AZ ($613,590)

Worst 5: NYY ($2,536,325), CHC ($1,333,039), STL ($1,323,649), BAL ($1,315,414), and SEA ($1,314,331).

by talonk on May 18, 2007 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Coughbavasicaugh

by Brick. on May 18, 2007 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Right, but none of the 3 teams ahead of Cleveland are over .500.

by dgcambridge on May 18, 2007 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Yeah, and they have payrolls half or lower than the Tribe too. I didn't like going by strict winning percentage, but based on wins was a better cost outlier since that is the end product, most wins.

by talonk on May 18, 2007 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

The graph is interesting. I think a more analytical way of doing it is to come up with a marginal player cost for wins. To do that, we would need to come up with a base cost, then anything above that you have to pay for a "marginal cost for a win". One probably gets better resource allocation if one does that on each and every transaction, and not as a whole. Raw salary just doesn't seem like the way to analyze it to get results to improve one's team. It seems teams get themselves in trouble by making sweeping decisions based on total payroll rather than marginal decisions based on performance per salary. I know it sounds kind of vague, but I think a lot of teams make bad decisions on players because they are thinking of their whole budgets rather than performance per dollar spent.

by Bogalusa Bomber on May 18, 2007 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Any calcuation based on wins ignores that some teams have played more games than others, which gives them an advantage. That's why I correlated W/L% to salaries. Believe it or not, the weather has significantly affected how many games some teams have played ;-)

by kov on May 18, 2007 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

When I made my calculations, I did base them on number of games played so far per team. The only hangup would be at the end of the year when a few teams don't finish with 162 games since I calculated every team by total payroll/162.

For example:
Cle total salary: $61,673,267
Salary/162= $380,699
GP = 24+14=38
[Sal/162]*GP = $14,466,568
Cost per win = $14,466,568/24=$602,773

by talonk on May 19, 2007 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

isn't that what clemens gets paid per start?

by Brick. on May 19, 2007 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Actually, I think that is what Clemens gets per pitch.

by Jeffrey R on May 19, 2007 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Okay, you made me want to do my own math on this. Clemens gets $28,000,022 prorated over the 183 days of the season, so that's $153,005.58 per day. Assuming he's activated on June 2, he'll be active for 122 days out of 183, so that works out to $18,666,681.33 for the season.

If he pitches absolutely every fifth day (not game) from June 2 on, he'll make 24 starts -- that's assuming the Yankees skip someone's turn for every off-day rather than giving the starters an extra day of rest. But things never work out that perfectly, and he is turning 45. I think 22 starts is a reasonable guess.

So that works out to $848,485.52 per start -- but that's just what he's getting paid. That's not all that the Yankees are paying. Since the Yankees are already well over the luxury tax threshold for 2007 ($148 million), all of Clemens' salary will be taxed at the marginal rate of 40 percent.

So his prorated salary cost is really not $28 million, it's $39.2 million, which is $214,207.82 for each day he spends on the 25-man roster (including off-days and even the All-Star break). So his salary cost will actually be $26,133,353.87, which works out to $1,187,879.72 per start.

So to sum up, Clemens gets:

$18.7 million total
153K per day on the active roster
848K per start

The Yankees pay:

$26.1 million total
214K per day on the active roster
$1.19 million per start

Of course, he'll have to pitch in the postseason for free. If both his team and his body can get there, that is.

by Jay on May 19, 2007 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

And if - if that is - he throws 100 pitches per start that's $8,480 per pitch! Holy shit! Oh yeah and he won't pitch for free in the post season - he'll still get his play-off money - probably won't cover his city income tax - but not free.

Sometimes you just gotta be gritty

by mauichuck on May 20, 2007 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Is that the highest WPA yet recorded this season?

by MTF on May 18, 2007 9:31 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Loshee? I thought the twins series was over and we were playing the reds?

by Brick. on May 18, 2007 10:17 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

He was dealt at the July deadline last year by the Twins to the Reds for the infamous Zach Ward (wasn't he the brother on Titus?).

by talonk on May 18, 2007 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

i know, implied <sarc>. just funny we're facing him piggybacking the twins series...

by Brick. on May 18, 2007 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Ahh, I was close ... Zack Ward was on Titus.

by talonk on May 18, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Did you guys see that Julio Franco started at 3B yesterday for the Mets? Awesome!

by JulioBernazard on May 18, 2007 10:23 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

For what it's worth, Steve The Failed GM Phillips predicted on Mike & Mike this morning that the White Sox would pass the Indians in the Central because the Indians "don't do the little things."

Which is a shame, especially when all those big things (winning) are going to go to waste.

At least Phillips is consistent.

by nickjs21 on May 18, 2007 10:43 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Steve "the failed GM" Phillips has yet to understand that he got fired for the same reason- he didn't win.

by MTF on May 18, 2007 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Phillips and Tavarez have been hanging out and eating wings too often

by JK in CBus on May 18, 2007 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Casey Blake doesn't do all the little things?

by Roger Dorn on May 18, 2007 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

The little things:

Bunting.
Sac flies.
Waving your hand to the baserunner when the ball goes by the catcher.
Clubhouse haircuts.
Notifying the rest of the infield how many outs there are with your fingers.

Also, while we're at it, the big things:

Pitching.
Hitting.
Defense.
Winning.
Not losing.
Leadership pie.

by nickjs21 on May 18, 2007 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

The White Sox put on exclamation point out his point with 4 errors today...they do do the little things don't they..

by haymister on May 18, 2007 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Carmona is ridiculous right now. The newcomer who showed up to "rain on the parade" yesterday at the end of the game thread by talking about peripherals made the point that pitchers who can be good-great-dominant without great peripherals (i.e. high K rates) are extremely rare.

That's all good and true but I think those rare good-great-dominant players usually have one pitch that is put-in-playable but essentially not hittable-Carmona's sinker yesterday. With that sinker, and the assumption that Carmona can add a few K's (he throws in the high 90s people), I really want to believe we're looking at something sort of special.

While Hunter's comments are anecdotal, they're very emphatic. It makes it harder to believe Carmona is just getting lucky.

Besides, Dr. F's xFIP is 4.35 which I'm good with.

In other news, Josh Beckett is still A) wildly overrated because B) HE CAN'T THROW THAT CURVE WITHOUT GOING ON THE DL. What a frustrating pitcher.

by afh4 on May 18, 2007 11:14 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Boston does have great pitching so far, even outside of Beckett, so I'm hoping the DL captures some of their other guys along the way too. Our depth might be the lifesaver against several teams this year, most particularly Boston.

by MTF on May 18, 2007 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

I ain't scared of Boston. Beckett absolutely cannot stay healthy and everything I've read says it's because of his curve, a pitch he really needs to throw. Not a great combination.

Even if Beckett is healthy when we're facing them in a high leverage situation, Schilling is aging by the day.

I guess the way I feel is Beckett and Pap are the only two guys who I think could hold down our offense. Our offense has the offensive equivalents of guys like Schill, Dice-K, Okajima, etc and we'll win enough of those battles, I hope.

I don't know-it's the winning streak and all but there is, to me, no one to be afraid of. Teams should be afraid of us right now and, if we keep it up, in the future. We can hit anyone and we can get anyone out. It's not going to be about someone out-talenting us.

by afh4 on May 18, 2007 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

I hope you're right: looking at the Boston RS-RA gap can make you shake your head. Oakland has been dominating too.

by MTF on May 18, 2007 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

I read some other anecdote that quoted Garko as saying he gets more comments by opposing players at 1B about Fausto than any other Tribe pitcher. The informal poll at first puts his stuff as the nastiest on the staff.

by mcrose on May 18, 2007 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

that's even more impressive when you consider how few guys carmona has allowed to get to first base

(i didn't look it up, just in case he allows more than others - you get my point, though)

by Brick. on May 18, 2007 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

I remember looking at Carmona's stats in buffalo, and seeing that he doesn't walk many guys, doesn't strike out many guys, and doesn't give up many hits. This seemed a weird combination. Now watching him start, it is clear why he has this unique profile (he pounds the zone with hard sinkers that batters can't square up). He didn't pitch like this when he was in the pen, as he K'd more, walked more, and gave up more hits and dongs. I'm glad to see that he is back to the profile he was before, and I could care less about the lack of K's.

by oxforddave on May 18, 2007 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

he gets outs. i don't care if they're k's. totally different pitchers, but maddux made a career of pitching to contact and getting outs efficiently. i'd rather see 10 broken bat swinging bunt outs and 4 k's than 15 k's and 2 homeruns and a pitchcount that lasts through 6 innings as opposed to 8 or 9.

by Brick. on May 18, 2007 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Kazmir threw 109 pitches last night.

In 4 innings.

by oxforddave on May 18, 2007 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

exactly

by Brick. on May 18, 2007 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

The mlb.tv highlight reel of this game begins by calling Santana a "crafty lefty."

Ummm?

by afh4 on May 18, 2007 11:44 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Thirty-Eight: Indians 2, Twins 0

Chicks dig the 11 strikeouts.

According to Joe Posnanski, this adjective is incorrectly used. See his definition:

Crafty: Adjective meaning "slow-throwing pitcher." Sentence example: "Crafty left-hander Jamie Moyer is baffling Royals hitters again." Caveat: Crafty can only be used for left-handed pitchers. See "Wily."

by nickjs21 on May 18, 2007 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions