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Construct your 25-man Roster!

One of my pet peeves with Indians management is their tendency to certainty of veteran mediocrity to the uncertainty of promising youngsters. Then again, I don't have to worry about options, contracts and the fiscal implications of a down seasons. Having watched a spring games, I think I can make a few 'gut' calls and am going to take a stab at constructing the Indians' 25 roster. I have tempered by irrational exuberance with young players in favor of contract realities. Here's what I have....

Roster:

 C Matrinez
 C Shoppach

1B Garko
2B Cabrera
SS Peralta
3B Blake
2B Carroll
IF <one of the players received in Marte/Michaels trade>

OF Dellucci
OF Francisco
OF Sizemore
OF Gutierrez

SP Sabathia
SP Carmona
SP Westbrook
SP Byrd
SP Lee

RP Borowski
RP Betancourt
RP Perez
RP Kobayashi
RP Lewis
RP Mastny
RP Mujica
RP Miller

(scratch Miller, forgot about Hafner)

  • - So nothing really adventurous here. Marte is done. That swing of his too high maintenance and takes a while to uncork. I have seen no adjustments from him, nor any desire to let the ball get deep and hammer it the other way.
  • - I don't understand the value or purpose of Michaels. I get that Francisco's platoon split is really an anti-platoon split, but surely he can replicate Michaels' overall contribution (defense+offense). No?
  • - Fultz is beyond useless to me. But apparently we NEED two lefties in the 'pen. How many times last season did we see Fultz called in to get ONE lefty out and end up walking the guy? The numbers actually say that he wasn't THAT bad. 14 of 45 inherited runners scored. That isn't abysmal, but I just have an irrational dislike of Fultz.
  • Future Moves:
  • - Trade Peralta (or move him to 3rd). Its not that I don't like Peralta, but I'm really impressed with Barfield's adjustments. He keeps his hands lower now, giving him a little more time before he has to react. His K numbers in spring aren't great, but I like what I see from AB to AB. Unlike Marte who isn't striking out because he's popping up junk pitches early in the count, Barfield is actually making pitchers work. I'd put Barfield in AAA to start the season. Once it becomes clear that Asdrubal is a bonafide talent, move him to SS and call up Barfield. Let him backup to start out. But when he starts to look legit, trade Peralta or move him to third. The infield defense improves and the team will have SOME speed.
  • - Trade Lee when Laffey and Sowers start to look like competent replacements.
  • - Option one of the relievers to make room for Choo when he comes off the DL.
  • -

    What's your 25-man roster?

    0 recs | Comment 17 comments

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    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
    Hmmm, well, in reality the 25 man is pretty much set already right?  The only question is the last spot in the bullpen.  It looks like you answered that question by dropping Fultz and expanding the pen to 8.

    I assume by "<one of the players received in Marte/Michaels trade>", you mean Marte or Michaels.  Unless you want to try to reacquire Mota.

    by dgcambridge on Mar 12, 2008 2:48 PM EDT   0 recs

    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
    I'd favor making room for that guy named Hafner somewhere on the 25-man.

    Also, your dream team has by overtaken by events: Miller, injured again, has been optioned to Buffalo.

    Yes to Francisco.

    No to Mujica, unless both Fultz and Julio stink it up for the remainder of ST.

    ken from alexandria

    by ken from alexandria on Mar 12, 2008 3:00 PM EDT   0 recs

    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
    You say, "the certainty of veteran mediocrity," I say, "the certainty of depth."

    You say, "the uncertainty of promising youngsters," I say, "the uncertainty of decent but not great prospects backed up by nobody."

    Let's call the whole thing off.

    by Jay on Mar 12, 2008 6:48 PM EDT   0 recs

    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
    don't understand the value or purpose of Michaels. I get that Francisco's platoon split is really an anti-platoon split, but surely he can replicate Michaels' overall contribution (defense+offense). No?

    Amplifying your point, Francisco doesn't have an anti-platoon split, he has not shown any significant platoon split.  He probably will at some point, but what's clear so far is that he doesn't struggle against right-handers -- and Michaels kind of does struggle.  This is significant, because it means that if you start Michaels against a lefty, and they bring in a righty, you're either pulling him or more or less giving away the at-bat.  

    Let's also keep in mind, the left-vs-left split is by far the most severe across all players, significantly worse than right-vs-right.  The point of a platoon is essentially that while lefties make more productive hitters overall, many  if not most of them need to be protected against lefty pitchers.  A righty bat in theory will not usually need that kind of protection, because if he did, he wouldn't be in the majors -- short of some other valuable skill, like playing CF.

    Hell, I've forgotten what point I was thinking about making, but whatever.

    How many times last season did we see Fultz called in to get ONE lefty out and end up walking the guy?

    Good question -- but why not just answer it?

    The answer is ... twice.  That's all it was, twice -- but it was two appearances in a row, and the bases were loaded both times.

    But this is cheating of course.  We can't really know how many times he was brought in to face one batter, because what happens to that first batter affects whether Wedge pulls him or not, and often in unpredictable ways.  But here's a few other ways to look at it.

    Fultz came into 49 games last season and walked the first batter 6 times.  Out of the other 43 times, he got 37 outs, allowing 3 singles, 2 doubles, 1 homer and a sac fly.  He had a 506 first-batter OPS-against, but on the other hand, 11 runs scored in those plate appearances, so he admittedly was not very timely with his walks.

    How was he with bases loaded generally?  Not great.  Facing 11 batters, he walked three (including the two we remember) and gave up two singles, for an 855 OPS.  But not only is this a criminally small sample, it's also not that terrible.   He got the other six guys out and didn't give up any extra-base hits, which obviously is what really kills you with the bases juiced, so you could read the numbers in part as Fultz not giving in to the batter.

    Fultz also faced 22 batters with two men on base, and only 5 out of 44 of those runners scored -- 513 OPS in those situations, also damned good.  For six of those batters the score was tied, and he ended the threat 5 times.  The sixth time, he gave up a groundball single up the middle to score a runner from third.  For another six batters the score was within 2 runs, and Fultz allowed one walk and a double, but also got three strikeouts and a groundout.  It ain't bad.

    Main thing to remember about Fultz is that his status is no different than it was last year, or than Oldberto's last year, or Borowski's this year or last.  He's only on a one-year deal, he's only making $1.5 million, and if he struggles and/or they have a reasonable replacement for him, they'll DFA him and never look back.

    So don't waste your energy worrying about him, he's not a significant problem on this squad.

    by Jay on Mar 12, 2008 7:26 PM EDT   0 recs

    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
    Well played on Fultz. As I said, it was irrational dislike and cited his not too terrible IS/IR rate.

    But I'm not quite sure what your thoughts about Michaels intended to convey.

    by crazymoloh on Mar 12, 2008 7:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
    I too think we can and probably should move Michaels.  I think I was trying to convey that there's no reason to "worry" about Francisco having a regular split or a reverse-split, because first, a reverse split is really really really unlikely, and second, regular splits are not worrisome for righty batters as they are for lefties.  So ... oh, hell, I lost it again.  There is a point in there, somewhere, possibly.

    Re: Fultz, I should have acknowledged that you were making no claim as to being rational about it.  I'm a big fan of disclaimers like that.

    by Jay on Mar 12, 2008 8:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

    No offense, but Barfield is going to have be
    great in 2008 before I even consider trading or moving Peralta next offseason (and I still wouldn't do it - see below for why.)

    Hello crazymoloh,

    Interesting 25-man roster and assumptions about Miller, Hafner, etc.

    Regarding your idea about trading Peralta or moving him to 3B, I could see that as a possibility down the road, but I'm thinking Rodriguez or Goedert might give them that option by establishing themselves at 2B and allowing Cabrera to move to SS.  (By that time, Hodges, or perhaps even Mills will probably be established at 3B if Peralta is not traded.)  I don't suspect that to happen until probably the 2010 season at the earliest.

    No offense, but it's going to take more than just a few months or a half-season from Barfield performing like we're expecting him to to even make me randomly think of moving Peralta (either to 3B or to another team) during the 2008 season.  For one thing, Barfield needs to show he can perform well for a whole season in the AL, and chances are, he won't be in the Majors the whole season this season.  In addition, the Indians are poised for a WS run this year; moving Peralta is likely NOT going to help increase our chances of winning a WS this year, the year where we'll still have Sabathia (who probably will not be here next season.)

    Therefore, while I think Peralta could be traded or perhaps moved to 3B in the future, it will very likely not happen in 2008, and probably not in 2009 either, as I don't think Barfield will convince the Indians he's the long-term answer at 2B unless he really tears it up this season at AAA and the Majors, and then can tear it up again in 2009 at the ML level for a full season.  If Barfield can do all that, then maybe they might consider moving Peralta to another team or to 3B at that point, and by then (the 2010 season,) Hodges and maybe even Mills could be ready for 3B, thereby increasing the possibility Peralta would be traded and not moved to 3B.  It's also possible, though less likely than Hodges being at 3B, that Rodriguez or Goedert might have established themselves enough to be in the running for the 2B job by that point as well, thereby further negating the chances of Barfield being the Indians' future 2B.

    But, certainly trading or moving Peralta from SS in 2008 is very unlikely in my opinion, even if Barfield tears it up for a few months this season at AAA and/or the Majors.

    Just my 2 cents - no offense.

    May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

    by indiansfan on Mar 12, 2008 7:37 PM EDT   0 recs

    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
    I'm not saying Barfield hasn't made adjustments, but now's not the time to hedge Marte's future on it.  What's the harm in a few months in Buffalo for Barfield to PROVE these adjustments you claim, considering the cost would be 5 years of Marte?

    And more importantly, what's the harm for Cleveland?  Marte's at-bats would go to your to-be-received-player who probably has less upside than Marte, but, like Marte, he wouldn't get enough ABs to make a difference.

    by rick on Mar 13, 2008 4:32 AM EDT   0 recs

    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
    In fact, we have significant financial incentive to send Barfield to Buffalo.  If he spends three weeks in the minors, it pushes his free agency back a year.  If he spends nine weeks in the minors, it pushes his arbitration back a year.  "All in the game" -- and like Shapiro says, ultimately these decisions get made for the team by the player on the field.

    by Jay on Mar 13, 2008 9:42 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
    Exactly.  Sometimes the game itself and/or the players determine who'll play.

    If Blake gets hit with a fastball and breaks his hand (and Marte has been dealt), the everyday 3B is....Jamie Carroll?   Uhhhm, no thanks.

    by rick on Mar 13, 2008 2:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
    I would like to see Laffey, not Mujica, in the bullpen and I entirely agree that Fultz is not worth hanging on to.  He's not even Jim Poole, and that's saying a lot!  Knowing the Indians, he'll make the team, then get dumped somewhere later in the season (see Roberto Hernandez, assorted other washed-up relievers over the past few seasons).

    I doubt they will be able to trade Michaels/Marte for value.  I imagine they'll keep them both and wait/hope for either results or a good trade possibility.  Francisco will start in AAA (unfairly) and be up by June (so will Choo) as someone is bound to get hurt.  Barfield may spend much time at AAA this year, unless Cabrera is a mirage or there's an infield injury.

    I think the only real question about the roster is whether Mastny makes it.  He has had some good outings, some bad; Julio hasn't exactly wowed anyone yet.  But, the Indians may decide to take a look at Julio first, which would mean they'd have to demote Mastny.

    I STILL wish they'd get rid of Dellucci, rather than Michaels.  Michaels is a solid fourth outfielder.  Dellucci is a "proven veteran" who will get too many starts and will underproduce, strand runners, and block better players.  If I had one wish, it would be to see him OFF the roster (they sure missed him last year, didn't they!!).

    by peter m on Mar 14, 2008 9:18 AM EDT   0 recs

    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
    Dellucci is a "proven veteran" who will get too many starts and will underproduce, strand runners, and block better players.

    Based on what exactly?

    Dellucci did a very fine job in a platoon role in 2005 and 2006 -- that's why he's here.  There's no particular reason to think he will underproduce.

    Francisco has an 823 career OPS in the minors, hardly a clearly better option to anybody.  We all like Francisco and the energy he produces, but a guy who projects to a 329 OBP is not exactly worth hunger-striking over.  Our positive impression of him is traced mostly to a couple of clutch hits in 2007 -- which Dellucci also had -- and two impressive Spring Trainings.  Emotionally, it's right.  Analytically, the cupboard is pretty bare.

    As for Dellucci vs. Michaels, evidently you have not heard about a little thing called platoon splits, but the basic idea is that if you're going to have five outfielders, the smart move is to have more than one who hits from the left side.  The only pure lefties we have in the lineup are Dellucci and Grady, plus two switch-hitters.  Once Choo comes back the equation changes, but let's be honest, Choo has never really established himself in the majors, and we don't know what we're going to get out of him.

    I don't know how many "ideal 4th outfielders" you think we need.  Gutierrez makes an above-average CF and Francisco could play there in a pinch.  You could argue that Michaels is the best CF on the team if you want, but you can't argue that it's by much.

    As a final point, let's not hear any more nonsense about "unfairly."  Every player gets three option years, and both Michaels and Marte in particular definitely have used theirs up.  Michaels was "blocked" by a succession of mediocre veterans and more toolsy-looking prospects in Philly before falling into a good CF platoon with (of all people) Kenny Lofton.

    As for Marte, his OPS in Triple-A was the exact same 878 as Francisco's -- except that (a) he was 21, (b) he was a plus-defender at third base rather than an OF tweener, and (c) that was three years ago.  So Marte puts up the same/better performance as Francisco, but damned if he doesn't have to spend most of the next two years on optional assignment anyway.  That's just how it works, it's why they're called "options," and it's totally fair.

    You want to force the options thing, you have to play exceptionally well.  You could do the Kouzmanoff thing and just go totally crazy, but you could also do what Crisp did after getting sent down in 2003 -- hit .360 with a .434 OBP for two months.  If Francisco does that, he'll be in the majors right quick.

    by Jay on Mar 14, 2008 10:27 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
    Sorry I can't agree with you about Dellucci, a 34-year old outfielder who has never had more than 450 or so at bats and whose best season yielded 65 RBI's.  He's a decent player, I acknowledge, but not better than Michaels and has no real upside.  They lost not a step when he went down last year so can easily forgo his contributions.  (I don't think they'd miss Michaels either, to be fair.)  My point was that Francisco has shown some ability to hit major league pitching, so I'd like to see him get a chance. Maybe he's a fourth outfielder, but he's young enough that he might turn out to be better than that; there's no real chance that Dellucci can be anything other than what he's been -- a solid, journeyman with obvious limitations.  I prefer Michaels because he's cheaper, a little younger, and the team seems actually to have decided he's a fourth outfielder.  I don't think they've come to that conclusion about Dellucci, who will play 2/3 of the time and is VERY unlikely to be anything other than adequate (his numbers don't lie).

    "Unfairly" refers to Francisco's having had good springs and to his having done pretty well when called up last year.  Yes, young players get sent down; that's the drill.  But, they often get sent down because older, mediocre players block them.

    I agree that the Indians don't need lots of fourth outfielders.  Unfortunately, they've signed a bunch.  Dellucci and Michaels are the most obvious.  Gutierrez, Francisco, Choo  et al are young guys who might get better.  I say keep one of the veterans, and my preference is for Michaels (for the reasons I gave).

     

    by peter m on Mar 14, 2008 10:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
    I guess I feel that you're missing the irony in this.  Only a few years ago, Dellucci and Michaels were the scrappy gamers that fans like us were clamoring to see, waiting for the team to dump some other guy.  Francisco, love the guy, but he hasn't really done anything to suggest clearly that he will even be Dellucci or Michaels' equal, let alone their better.

    So in essence, you're demanding that the team dump last year's mediocrity in favor of next year's mediocrity.  Won't be long now before you're clamoring for them to dump Gutierrez in favor of, oh, let's say Jose Constanza.  Young and scrappy!

    So I agree that the younger guys have more potential to improve than the older guys.  But my point is that the younger guys have to improve just to be as good as the older guys already have been.

    by Jay on Mar 14, 2008 10:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
    Somehow I see the ghost of Brina Giles in all of this.
    "the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

    by mauichuck on Mar 15, 2008 11:53 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

    Re: Construct your 25-man Roster!
      age level avg obp slg ops
    Francisco 21 A+ 287 356 481 837
    Giles 21 A+ 248 366 341 707
    Hafner 21 A 237 347 412 759
    Francisco 22 AA 254 322 414 736
    Giles 22 AA 327 407 452 859
    Hafner 22 A 292 378 546 924
    Francisco 23 AAA 316 364 478 842
    Giles 23 AAA 313 391 479 870
    Hafner 23 A+ 346 433 580 1013
    Francisco 24 AAA 278 345 454 799
    Giles 24 AAA 310 390 501 891
    Hafner 24 AA 282 393 545 938
    Francisco 25 AAA 318 382 496 878
    Giles 25 AAA 314 394 594 988
    Hafner 25 AAA 342 450 559 1009

    by Jay on Mar 15, 2008 3:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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