LGT Community Projections: Lonnie Chisenhall

Lonnie Chisenhall. - Rob Carr

Next up is Lonnie Chisenhall, who will be for the first time an everyday player at the major-league level. Will he run with this opportunity? Or crash and burn?

A quick reminder:

  • If you haven't done so, please feel free to post your projection for the first six players in this series; I won't compile the results until after we've gone through all the starting positions. So you have until the end of this week (the 24th) to post your entry.
  • There's a couple easy ways to get to those projections: first you can click on the link in the sidebar above, or you can click on the red Community Projections button at the top of this post.

Background

2008 was Brad Grant's first draft as Director of Amateur Scouting, and Lonnie Chisenhall was his first draft pick. Grant was promoted because the Indians' last decade of drafts had been virtually barren, especially in the top-end talent, the type of the players that turn into good everyday regulars, core players, or even franchise players. Because the Indians had won 96 games the season before, they were selected 29th in the first round, so Grant would have his work cut out for him; usually by the time the first is half-over the high-end talent is gone.

In the years before Grant took over, the Indians had drafted a string of college pitchers and position players, the least risky way of ensuring that the picks would reach the majors (and most of them did), but the upside wasn't very high. With his first pick, Grant didn't select a player out of high school, but he didn't select a college junior, either, and the player he selected came with other risks as well.

Lonnie Chisenhall was a top prospect coming out of high school, but opted to go to South Carolina instead. He was kicked off the team after he and a teammate stole TV/computer equipment from a dorm room and a large amount of money from an assistant coach's locker. He pleaded guilty to both offenses, and received probation. Meanwhile he enrolled at a community college in North Carolina, and quickly popped back up on the draft prospect radar screen thanks to a great season. So a year after graduation from high school, he was eligible for the draft again as a 19-year-old, and the Indians took a chance on him.


BA Calculator
OBP Calculator
SLG Calculator

Draft as a shortstop, Chisenhall was quickly moved to third base in his first full season in pro baseball (2009). He was able to handle third base, all the while showcasing his sweet left-handed swing. Before the 2010 season, he was rated #31 in Baseball America's overall prospect list, and #25 before the 2011 season. He made his major-league debut that year, and wasn't overwhelmed, hitting .255/.284/.415 in 223 Plate Appearances with the Indians. He appeared in less games with the Indians in 2012 thanks to a broken arm; because of the injury, he missed a golden opportunity to get major-league at-bats, but the Indians liked what they saw to the point where they non-tendered Jack Hannahan after the season and didn't bring in a major-league third baseman to challenge him. Third base is Lonnie's, and although he may sit some against left-handers, he's going get the vast majority of playing time there.

Chisenhall has already shown that he can hit for power at the major-league level, hitting 12 home runs and 19 doubles in his brief major-league career (374 PA). However, my concern is that he isn't walking much; he's walked only 16 times between 2011 and 2012, and has struck out 76 times. If you break things down further, you'll see that against right-handers, those SO/BB numbers don't look that bad, but against left-handers, they're downright horrible:

I Split G PA H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB BAbip tOPS+
vs RHP as LHB 104 283 72 15 1 7 14 53 .271 .309 .414 .722 110 .314 103
vs LHP as LHB 57 91 20 4 0 5 2 23 .227 .253 .443 .696 39 .250 91
vs LH Starter 27 73 19 4 0 3 5 16 .279 .329 .471 .799 32 .327 123
vs RH Starter 82 301 73 15 1 9 11 60 .255 .287 .409 .696 117 .294 94
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/22/2013.

This is a small sample, so it may correct itself as Chisenhall gets more at-bats, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Historical Stats

Year Age Tm G PA H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2011 22 CLE 66 223 54 13 0 7 1 0 8 49 .255 .284 .415 .699 94
2012 23 CLE 43 151 38 6 1 5 2 1 8 27 .268 .311 .430 .741 108
2 Yrs 109 374 92 19 1 12 3 1 16 76 .260 .295 .421 .716 100
162 Game Avg. 162 556 137 28 1 18 4 1 24 113 .260 .295 .421 .716 100
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/22/2013.

Projections

Chisenhall has the least major-league experience of any player in the Opening Day lineup, so projections are likely to vary widely depending on what you want to believe. Here's ZiPS:

ZiPS Projection
PA 469
2B 23
HR 11
SB 2
SB % 67%
BA/OBP/SLG .255/.305/.398

This projection envisions a low-OBP, medium-power season for Chisenhall, which I can see happening. Especially if he struggles against left-handers.

Cairo predicts this for Chisenhall in 2013:

Cairo Projection
PA 424
2B 22
HR 10
SB 2
SB % 67%
BA/OBP/SLG .247/.303/.388

Even less playing time, and lower batting average and power.

Here's my projections:

Ryan's Projection
PA 450
2B 25
HR 18
SB 1
SB % 50%
BA/OBP/SLG .241/.294/.407

I'm not counting on much from Chisenhall in his first full major-league season, other than some power. I think he'll continue to struggle against left-handers, lowering his BA/OBP and ultimately limiting his playing time.

What are your thoughts?

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Let's Go Tribe

You must be a member of Let's Go Tribe to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Let's Go Tribe. You should read them.

Join Let's Go Tribe

You must be a member of Let's Go Tribe to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Let's Go Tribe. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker