Signed SS Asdrubal Cabrera to a 1-Year, $4.55M Contract

The Indians came as close to an arbitration hearing with Asdrubal Cabrera as they did to almost any arbitration-eligible player since 1991. But although that team tradition has been maintained, another has been largely abandoned. Only two players in the organization (Travis Hafner and "Fausto Carmona") are under multi-year contracts that were signed with the Indians before they were eligible for free agency. Perhaps the pendulum is swinging back towards year-to-year contracts, with players and agents more content to deal with short-term risks in exchange for a big free agent payday.

It's been very apparent that Shin-Soo Choo is going to test free agency as soon as possible, and now it looks like Cabrera will be doing the same. This was probably Cleveland's best opportunity to extend Cabrera past free agency, as once his free agent season rolls around, what risk there is is swallowed up in the glare of bright, shinning reward. Chris Antonetti also seems resigned to this:

"We're appreciative of Asdrubal's contributions," Indians general manager Chris Antonetti said. "We certainly value him as a member of the organization and a member of our team. He was a key part of our team over the last few seasons, and we're looking forward to him contributing in the time that he's with us.

With this anticlimactic signing, the Indians will head into Spring Training with a little over $60.0M on their payroll, with just the pre-arbitration players to sign. They should start the season with about a $66.0M or perhaps a $67.0M payroll, and no player on the roster being owed a 2013 salary.

Joe Posnanski has a column up today talking about issues related to age and player development. This got me thinking about the age of the Indians lineup, and particular how the projected starting lineup sits relative to the perceived prime age range of 25-30. After putting together the average age of the Indians starting lineup, by position, from 2004-2012, I do not really have anything particularly insightful to say. The Indians should be pretty well positioned in the peak of the production curve this year, but they pretty much have been there throughout this time period. If all goes as projected, the Indians might go through 2012 with a full seven of the nine lineup spots occupied by a guy aged 25-30 on a regular basis, which would be matched only by 2008.

"...it's better to burn out, 'cause rust never sleeps/ The king is gone, but he's not forgotten..."

Sometime during the 2008 season, mauichuck made the prediction that Travis Hafner would either rebound and become the type of monster hitter he had been from 2004-2006, or flame out altogether. Hafner, of course, was in the midst of his worst season as a pro. Just two years removed from putting up an OPS just shy of 1.100, Hafner hit .197/.305/.323 in 2008, struggling with the after effects of a still amorphous shoulder problem. Chuck's prediction seemed reasonable enough at the time, but has proven to be completely wrong. The past three seasons, in a somewhat strange way, Hafner has been remarkably consistent. Here are his batting lines from 2009-2011:

• 2009: 96 games, .272/.355/.470, .826 OPS, 16 HRs, 1.63 K/BB
• 2010: 118 games, .278/.374/.449, .824 OPS, 13 HRs, 1.84 K/BB
• 2011: 94 games, .280/.361/.449, .811 OPS, 13 HRs, 2.17 K/BB

Hafner has become a steady part-time player, with moderately above average power and discipline. Not bad, though not great for a one-time monster slugger with the team's largest contract. Given his skill set, there isn't really any reason to expect a massive and sudden decline from Hafner in the immediate future, and most projections for him (fangraphs has a few here) show him putting up similar numbers in 2012 as he has over the past three seasons.

What is sort of interesting is the final number I put up in the lines above. In his prime, Hafner put up fantastic walk-rates partly because of his great plate discipline and party because of the unwillingness of pitchers to challenge him with pitches over the plate. Over the past three seasons Hafner's strikeout rates have increased incrementally each year (21.2% last season) while his BB-rates have been on the decline (his 9.8% rate last season was a career low). What I find interesting is that his decline has come almost entirely as the result of his performance against left-handed pitchers. His line against right-handed hitters in 2011 was .302/.404/.482 with a 13.1 BB% and a 20.8 K%, right in line with what he has done each of the past three years. But against lefties he dropped to a .233/.259/.379 line, with a remarkably low 1.9 BB% (dropping precipitously over the past three seasons) and a 22.2 K%. Travis Hafner can't hit lefties anymore.

And more importantly, Hafner shouldn't hit against lefties in 2012. Despite his struggles, Hafner still logged 108 plate appearances against lefties last season, good for more than 29% of his total PAs. This was actually up from the previous two seasons in which he had faced about 24% lefties. One of the reasons the Indians need to have a right-handed bat on the team who can hit lefties is so that Travis Hafner doesn't have to face them. Sadly, of the guys most likely to fill the role of Hafner's replacement against lefties (Duncan, Cunningham, Santana) - none of them really fit the bill of lefty-specialist. But even if they aren't fantastic against lefties, merely being good, which they all have at some point, could represent a significant incremental improvement in the 2012 Tribe.

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With the signing of Casey Kotchman, Cleveland has finally made a move to patch over the black hole that was 1B in 2011. The Indians cumulative OPS at 1B last season was 763, about 30 points below league average. It appears the Indians have already decided to send Matt LaPorta back to Columbus, barring injuries anyway, and there's no reason to complain about that. However, it's at least worth diagnosing exactly how the Indians have upgraded the Cold Corner. I'm going to chart out the 2011 1B, plus Kotchman, both by their 2011 numbers and career numbers. Santana's numbers will be 1B-only, while I'll use total numbers of LaPorta (who was horrible as a DH/PH last season) and Duncan. For reference, the total AL split at first for 2011 was a .340/452 OBP/SLG with a 116 OPS+ and a 2.09 SO:BB.

2011:

Career:

Let's run through each player's profile.

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