The series:  Visited the Yankees (win, win, loss) and hosted the Blue Jays (win, win, win, loss).

The big story:  The team put together a strong week behind a dominant rotation, but the daily lineups wore the strange hue of a series of odd decisions — moves that occasionally excited but more often puzzled, or even smelt of desperation.

Newly promoted Ben Francisco was used in all seven games, including five starts, performing similarly to (and not demonstrably better than) the man he replaced, who was traded to Pittsburgh for (we can guess) something in between a bag of balls and a case of bats.  Slight-hitting Jason Tyner was also promoted, adding to our already overstocked cupboard of weak-hitting outfielders, or perhaps more accurately subtracting by addition.  Even more strange than Tyner's promotion was his being given a start immediately upon his arrival.  We have four better-hitting outfielders — five if you count Blake — most of whom are also good or great defenders, so what was the point of this?

There seemed to be no rhyme or reason to it, unless it was to send the other players a message, something along the lines of:  "You guys suck so bad, we might as well be playing Jason freakin' Tyner.  That's right, you guys, it's that bad.  Our hitting is as pathetic as the goddam Twins now."

And then there's Andy Marte, long buried at the end of the bench, who shockingly got three starts this week — and yet already has fewer at-bats this season (22) than Ben Francisco (25), who has been on the roster only 11 days compared to Marte's 43.  Some guys just have to play, apparently, and some guys don't.  (See full screed.)  It's a good thing we don't have to understand these decisions, because who could?

In other news:  Cliff Lee ascended to a new level of other-worldly Chuck Norrissitude, leading a rotation that allowed just nine runs in seven starts, including five games allowing one run or zero.  Five!   Five starts allowing one run or zero!  This week alone!  Since April 17, Indians starters have allowed just 35 runs in 23 games, good for a 2.07 ERA.  Sabathia even managed to climb out of the ERA cellar, having needed four excellent starts to get his ERA down to 6.55 — still awful, but good enough to surrender the "lead" to Nate Robertson at 6.64, of our alleged rivals the Detroit Tigers.  (Happily, the bottom five also includes two other Tigers, Justin Verlander at 6.43 and Kenny Rogers at 5.82.)

Asdrubal Cabrera delivered a stunning series of defensive gems in a two-game stint at shortstop, but he made history when he returned to second base last night, turning just the 14th unassisted triple-play in the history of major league baseball.  Rather than save the ball for himself or for the Hall of Fame, AbaCab casually flipped the ball to some fans sitting behind the Indians dugout as he jogged in from the field — just another routine play, I guess.

Post of the week:  Okay, maybe let's start using that recommend-until-it's-green thingy.  And no, I'm not eligible, thank you.

Who fed it: Cliff Lee pitched 16 scoreless innings, starting a new streak perhaps to rival his previous 27-inning tear.  Carmona and Laffey provided another 16 scoreless innings, Carmona's in a complete game shutout, the quartet of Perez-Lewis-Julio- Breslow contributed eight more, and man, that is just a lot of scoreless innings.  Julio has been pounding on the door of the Circle of Trust, having retired 22 batters since the last time he allowed a run (April 16) while allowing just two singles and two walks.  Breslow meanwhile was fighting just to have his existence recognized, appearing in just his second game in the past four weeks.  Casey Blake had the best offensive line of the week with a 912 OPS, though that was more of a reflection on the team's hitting than anything else.  Sizemore hit another two home runs, matching his pair from last week, and has a 1063 OPS over his last dozen games.  And, well, that's about it for the hitters.  How did we ever score 12 runs in that one game?  Absolute Best:  Lee.  Relative Best:  Lee.

Who ate it:  Garko was the worst-hitting starter this week by far, with just two singles, a double and the obligatory HBP to show for 19 trips to the plate.  He bears an atrocious .140/.219/.175 line over his last 16 games, with as many strikeouts, double-plays and sac-flys (14) as times on base (also 14).  I can't tell if we're supposed to consider Francisco a bench guy or not, but if we assume that he isn't one, then the bench (Carroll, Shoppach, Marte and Tyner) was unbelievably awful this week — 4 for 43 awful, .093/.152/.093 awful — often frustrating Wedge's attempts to shuffle the lineup and give extra days off to his  struggling sluggers, i.e., half the roster.  You know who else sucks?  Rafael Betancourt, whose ERA is something around 9 since being anointed the closer, I can't even stand to look it up.  Absolute Worst:  Garko.  Relative Worst:  Betancourt.

The other guys. false alarms and open questions:   Will return next week; I kind of got sidetracked by the whole Marte thing.

The series:  Hosted the Mariners (loss, win, win) and the Royals (loss, loss).

The big story:  The lineup suffered a massive power outage from every player except Sizemore, as our other 12 "hitters" combined for zero home runs, zero triples and just nine doubles over 145 at-bats — and incidentally only 11 walks over 163 plate appearances — for a .262 slugging percentage.  (The major league average last season was .422.)  Our middle infielders produced just one single in 30 at-bats.  Blake and Hafner combined for just four hits, though all were doubles, in 29 at-bats.  The other four regulars (Martinez, Garko, Gutierrez and Dellucci) went the "empty batting average" route, hitting a solid .294 but combining for just three doubles and three walks between them.

The team's curious response was to jettison Jason Michaels in favor of Ben Francisco.  Curious, because after a horrendous 3-for-33 start in the team's first 15 games, Michaels had posted an 880 OPS over the past 16 games and was not part of the team's problems in any visible way.  Curious, because Michaels has a very team-friendly contract.  Curious, because Francisco had gotten off to an equally slow start in Buffalo and had made less of a rebound.  Curious, because the two players bring a very similar mix of skills to the roster.  Curious, because most in the industry expect Francisco to be a role-player or fringe everyday player, just like Michaels.

Curious, in sum, because it's not clear the Indians have done anything at all except replace one face with another, and usually, that kind of superficial move is reserved for the manager's job.  But, you know, they say you can't start a fire without a spark.  I guess.  Whatever.

In other news:  The rest of the rotation also continued to dominate, allowing just one earned run all week before the 7th inning, capped off by Aaron Laffey, who tossed an even better Sunday gem than he did last week, making the Indians look smart for not taking an easy chance to skip his turn in the rotation.  Paul Byrd continued a totally unpublicized four-game tear in which he's given up four home runs but only six runs total, and just one walk total, averaging 6.6 IP with a 1.71 ERA.  Garko more or less broke out of a hellacious 0-for-24 slump.  Wedge seethed a lot.  Betancourt was less than inspiring, failing to record a scoreless appearance in three tries.

Meanwhile, over on the Bizarro Planet, Cliff Lee was untouchable for six more innings before finally ending his un-scored-upon streak at 28 innings — giving up a three-run bomb, reducing his outing to a mere quality start, and ballooning his ERA all the way up to 0.96, still easily the best in the majors this season.  Like two regressions passing in the night, Sabathia's start was eerily similar to Lee's, beginning with six scoreless innings and ending with three straight hits to start the 7th.  Sabathia pitched well overall but still owns the league's worst ERA at 7.51.

Post of the week:  Maybe I need to rethink this.

Who fed it:  Byrd pitched the best game of the week, allowing just four singles and one walk.  Two of those five baserunners were erased trying to steal second, and none of them ever reached second.  Byrd retired the leadoff batter in all eight innings, and only two batters reached base with less than two outs.  Laffey was nearly as good in his start, allowing just one unearned run on four singles and two walks.  Sizemore busted out a 1311 OPS, including as many extra bases (nine) as the rest of the roster combined, and as many walks (five) as the four corner positions plus DH and catcher.  Perez had an odd but successful week, at one point earning a "Hold" without facing a single batter; he faced four batters over three other games, producing three groundballs and one flyball, resulting in a single and three outs.  Jensen Lewis allowed no hits and one walk over 4.1 innings, and Tom Mastny struck out one guy and allowed another to reach on a groundball error, the only two batters he's faced in the last 19 days. Absolute Best:  Sizemore.  Relative Best:  Byrd.

Honorable mention:  in his final start as an Indian (and only start of the week), Jason Michaels hit a double and a sac fly.  The next day, he scored the 11th inning game-winner as a pinch-runner in his final game here.  Not as dramatic as a farewell home run, but a fitting send-off for a role player who always seemed to be working his ass off out there.

Who ate it:  It's been feast-or-famine almost every week for Peralta, and this week, it was an all-out 0-for-13 famine.  Cabrera was nearly as bad at 1-for-16.  Blake's strikeouts (six) were double his times on base (three); he's played every inning of the last nine games, producing a line of .100/.206/.167.  Betancourt, filling in capably for Borowski, yielded two home runs and four singles while retiring only five batters.  Hafner hit two doubles in one game but went 0-for-10 in three others; he's struck out 14 times in his last 56 trips to the plate, hitting just four singles and four doubles and drawing only five walks for a line of .167/.250/.250.  Breslow totally crapped the bed in his only appearance in the last 19 days.  Absolute Worst:  Peralta.  Relative Worst:  Betancourt.

The other guys:    The Twins surged while the White Sox struggled and the Tigers scuffled.  The division more than ever looks like it will go to any team that can manage anything close to 90 wins, as the Tigers' pitching and the Indians' hitting look no more likely to come together than the White Sox or Twins going on a big flukey run.

False alarms:

• Not one single hitter having a good year by his own standards.
  
• Betancourt, terrible.
• Roger Clemens, apologizing for something.
• Not one formidable opponent in the AL Central.

Open questions:

• Can the starters walk on water long enough for the lineup to regroup and win a few games?
  
• Is there something fundamentally wrong with the organizational approach to hitting, and how long can Derek Shelton keep his job?
  
• When Cliff Lee returns to reality, what will that look like?
  
• Which teams are really in the AL Central race, anyway?
• Just how bad will the game have to be going before we see Mastny or Breslow again, and how bad will they be after a 15-day layoff?
• Too soon to write Laffey's name into our starting rotation plans, 2009-2013?
  
• Can Betancourt regain anything remotely resembling his 2007 dominance for any amount of time, or will he scuffle back-and-forth all season as he did in 2006?
• Is Jensen Lewis back on track, sort of?
• How many relievers would have to be failing completely for Adam Miller to get the call to the big-league bullpen?  Do we even want to see him there?
• Could Sowers be on the block soon?
• Could the Indians really consider Marte more or less expendable and Blake more or less untouchable?
• Really?

via www.fangraphs.com

Cliff Lee ran out of gas in the seventh inning, probably a result of a string of eight- and nine-inning appearances. But even though his final line denoted a disappointing three runs allowed, Cliff Lee still pitched very well. He continued to pound the strike zone, and while he only struck out three, he did not walk a batter.

Travis Hafner sat out tonight's game, and what looked like a very weak lineup ended up bouncing Mariner starter Jarrod Washburn in the fifth. Franklin Gutierrez collected two more hits; he's having an excellent homestand  (9-for-23). The offense rapped out six extra-base hits. Ryan Garko, who still hasn't gotten a hit since April 22, nevertheless got on base twice. But Grady Sizemore was the star of the evening, hitting a home run, a double, and reaching base four times.

The series:  Visited the Royals (win, win, win) and hosted the Yankees (win, win, loss, loss).

The big story:  There were several, and perhaps the biggest was simply that we had a strong week, winning five of seven to move into second place.   But the most significant development for the 2008 season going forward was C.C. Sabathia's total U-turn from trainwreck to dominant starter.  Sabathia gave up just one run over 14 innings, striking out 11 hapless Royals in the first game and tossing an 8-inning gem in which only five Yankees reached base in the second.  This pair of consecutive starts was one of the best of Sabathia's career, surpassed in 2007 only by his back-to-back shutouts in June.  At the same time, his first four starts were so horrendous (13.50 ERA) that even after the extreme two-start bounce-back, his ERA is still the worst in the majors at 7.88 – even worse than Barry Zito's.  Sabathia's excellence ended up being of no real immediate consequence, as the Indians turned the first one into a 15-1 rout, then handed Sabathia a tough 1-0 loss in the second.

In other news:  Jake Westbrook unexpectedly went on the Disabled List with a lower-back muscle strain.  Initially expected to miss only a few starts, he's now expected to be out for a full month after his symptoms persisted for a full week.  His injury, combined with a rain-delay-induced double-header, resulted in a flurry of call-ups and send-downs as the Indians played with an extra outfielder for a few days (Ben Francisco), swapped out for a spot starter (Jeremy Sowers) on Saturday, swapped out for another extra outfielder (Brad Snyder) on Sunday, and finally on Monday swapped out for Aaron Laffey, who will join the rotation at least for the following week.  Both starters made fine 2008 debuts against the Yankees, with Laffey looking significantly stronger than Sowers even though the box scores will claim the opposite.

Lee deepened his improbable run as the game's most effective pitcher with a complete game shutout, as the national media joined Indians fans in collectively dropping their jaws.  The lineup blew up for 24 runs in the first two games but then fizzled with just 14 runs in the next five, a trend led by Casey Blake, who posted a 2125 OPS in two games against the Royals but just a 350 OPS starting all four games against the Yankees.  The post-Borowski bullpen started to come together as Kobayashi asserted himself with a few strong setup performances while Betancourt breezed through his first two Save opportunities, making the closer's job look suspiciously un-different from his old setup-man gig.

Adam Miller finally made his official 2008 debut in Buffalo, following a few weeks rehabbing a blister and a few weeks in extended spring training.  Miller pitched nine scoreless innings in two starts while continuing to build up his pitch count, and his velocity was intact even if his peripherals weren't.  Miller's return, coupled with Brian Slocum's solid start, suggests that the Indians remain an absurd eight-deep in big-league-ready starting pitchers, even after putting Westbrook on the DL and shipping Sean Smith off to Colorado.  At the same time, David Huff, 39th overall draft pick in 2006, overcame a rocky first two starts to pitch his third straight gem for the Akron Aeros, allowing just one run (on a solo shot) and 13 baserunners against 19 strikeouts over the three games, and he picked off a couple guys, too.  If Huff continues to emerge, that may further tempt the Indians to move Miller into the big-league bullpen.

Post of the week:  Now taking nominations.

Who fed it: Sabathia dominated in two starts while Lee was near-spotless in his one.  Julio excelled in two low-leverage outings, while Kobayashi and Betancourt settled into their new roles; the three relievers faced 32 batters and got 29 outs, including two erased on double-plays, and allowed no one past first base.  Blake had the best all-around numbers of any hitter on the week but was abysmal against the Yankees.  Victor batted .375, achieving a 902 OPS on the week with (once again) no home runs.  Dellucci and Peralta each combined a solid average with a pair of home runs.  Seemingly competing for at bats, Michaels and Gutierrez both accounted for a major chunk of our otherwise anemic offense against the Yankees, the former batting .400 while the latter slugged .600, and they looked damned good in the field, too.  Special mention must be given to Aaron Laffey, who no-hit the Yankees for five innings and, through sheer horrendous luck alone, gave up four runs in the 6th when he deserved to give up, at most, one. Absolute Best:  Sabathia.  Relative Best:  Lee.

Who ate it:  It's hard to say what the worst part of Ryan Garko's week was, the .042 average, the .115 OBP or the .083 slugging.  I'm going with the .042 average, because he was just one walk short of decent walk rate, and hey, his isolated power is almost 2.0!  Unfortunately, even those minimal contributions were mostly confined to last Tuesday's game, and Garko's line for the last five games was .000/.048/.000.  Aside from Garko, the rest of the Indians put up a more-than-respectable .302/.360/.451 line for the week.  Hafner continued his harrowing march to the bottom, with week-by-week OPS totals of 824, 761, 592 and (this week) 512 — or, if you prefer, he has a 559 OPS over his last 17 games.  Absolute Worst:  Garko.  Relative Worst:  Garko.  Twenty Other Kinds Of Worst:  Garko.  And Yet The Guy Who Really Makes Me Suicidal Is Still:  Hafner.

The other guys:  We made Wang look like Bob Gibson.  The rest of it, pretty fuzzy, maybe I'll fill it in later, does anybody really care about this section?

False alarms:

• Cliff Lee, greatest pitcher in the universe.
  
• Chien-Ming Wang, second greatest.
• C.C. Sabathia, third greatest (he's actually about tenth).
• Ben Francisco in a Cleveland uniform.
  
• Ryan Garko, worst hitter ever.
• Jhonny Peralta on web gems last night.
• J-Mike, serviceable big-league hitter.

Open questions:

• How long will Jake be out, and once he returns, will he be totally awesome, or merely awesome?
• How long can Chicago stay at the top of the standings?
  
• Since any blogger writing in his/her parents' basement in his/her underwear can notice when a reliever's velocity is down 3-5 mph, and might actually write about it without the team's permission, what exactly do we need newspaper columnists for?
• Too soon to start panicking about losing Cliff Lee after 2010?
• When the hell is Slider's birthday, anyway?
  
• Can Kobayashi confuse hitters with his deathballs all season like Okajima did?
• Can Julio be useful?
• How long will we keep marching Stomp Lewis out there with reduced velocity?
• Just how bad will the game have to be going before we see Mastny or Breslow again, and how bad will they be after a 15-day layoff?
• Has anyone noticed that Eddie Mujica is in his last option year?  Does anyone care?
• How much better can Laffey be than he was last year?  Is his ceiling is higher than we think?
• Can Steel Rafi get settled and find some semblance of his 2007 consistency?
• How many relievers would have to be failing completely for Adam Miller to get the call to the big-league bullpen?  Do we even want to see him there?
• Could Sowers be on the block soon?
• Is it really possible for Marte to spend 120 more days on the roster than Ben Francisco this season, and yet still get fewer at bats?
  
• Is Wedge basically just testing Marte to see how long it takes him to get an obviously bad attitude, at which point they ship him out?
• Will Shapiro fall for this kind of nonsense again?

via www.fangraphs.com

Westbrook pitched just as well as Nick Blackburn, but Blackburn had the Twins defense behind him. Whether it was good throws, turning hard-hit grounders into double plays, or making good catches in the outfield, the Minnesota glovework essentially won the game.

Jake Westbrook made a first-inning mistake to Justin Morneau, and in this game, mistakes were fatal. Normally throwing 7 innings and allowing 3 runs would be good enough to at least avoid a loss.  The non-Sabathia starts have been promising; now the team just has to start hitting.

via www.fangraphs.com

Excerpts from Managing to Win (11th Edition), by Leo Martin:

If your charges aren't putting out, the first step is always a chewing out. First of all, it usually will shock the lackadaisical guys out of a rut. And the public will just eat it up. Trust me, you can never go wrong with a good old verbal tirade.

On building team unity:

If team chemistry just isn't there, try building it with a beanball war. This especially works with a big rival. You don't need much of a pretext - any old brushback will do. If you get lucky and the other guy plunks one of yours, you probably won't even need to start the ball rolling, if there's any starch in the boys at all. As an added touch, nail the biggest SOB on the other side - this way everyone's behind you. And if some hack asks you about it after the game, act all indignant and so forth, like you would never dream of stooping to that level of indecency, all the while grinning like a cheshire cat inside.

On the secret to winning:

Do you actually think I can answer that? Get some [deleted] good pitchers and [deleted] good hitters, and you have a chance.

The series:  Hosted the White Sox (win, win, loss) and visited the Athletics (loss, loss, win).

The news:  Victor injured himself on the basepaths on Opening Day for the second straight year and was replaced in the lineup by Shoppach for the rest of the week, although he has pinch-hit.  The Tigers, expected to compete in a tight division race with the Indians, opened the season with six straight losses, put new star Miguel Cabrera on the shelf, and got outscored 39-15.  And in the biggest news of the week, manager Eric Wedge did not start Gutierrez on Sunday, sparking explosive bursts of existential angst as Indians fans everywhere try to make sense of a mysterious and inexplicable universe.

Post of the week:  Now taking nominations.

Who fed it:  Sizemore and Garko got off to superfine starts, posting near-identical lines right around .341/.442/.568.  Carmona, Westbrook and Lee rattled off easy quality starts, collectively allowing just 3 ER over 21 IP.  Perez blew a late-inning lead on his second batter of the new season but looked dominant in the next two games.  Marte went 1-for-3.  Absolute Best:  Sizemore.  Relative Best:  Lee. 

Who ate it:  Sabathia tanked his first two starts – you might say he was 0-for-4 in quality start criteria – so that'll be the last time I write 800 words about whether he will or won't or should or shouldn't leave after 2008.  Okay, probably not, but that's how it feels at the moment, anyway.  Betancourt gave up seven hits in his first two innings, and he allowed more than one run in a game for the first time since September  2006.  Dellichaels posted perhaps the worst week in the history of LF platoons, batting .050, which even a .20 walk rate can't redeem.  Shoppach looked strangely uncomfortable behind the plate and allowed three passed balls.  Finally, Gutierrez and Blake, after electrifying the faithful on Opening Day, combined for exactly one base hit, a single, in their next 28 at bats.  Absolute Worst:  Sabathia.  Relative Worst:  Blake.

UPDATE:  JulioBernazard helpfully points out that Dellichaels' lone hit of the week actually came while Michaels was playing RF, not LF, and to make matters worse, Dellucci was technically a pinch-hitter when he was HBP.  Taking these key facts into account, the LF platoon's production for the week was actually .000/.238/.000, and not .050/.269/.100 as previously implied.  LGT-WIR deeply regrets this rare understatement.  [Jay]

The other guys:  We rocked Buerhle, Vazquez, MacDougal and Dotel but were baffled by Danks, Duchscherer and Eveland, three guys who collectively had 37 career starts coming into the week.  Dye, Pierzynski, Bobby Crosby and Daric Barton all had big series; Thome hit two Opening Day home runs improbably off our lefty ace but forgot how to hit after that.  Oakland had both Ryan Sweeney and Mike Sweeney in their lineup at one point, like some kind of very weird dream, Alan Embree and Keith Foulke in their bullpen.

False alarms:

• Royals and White Sox in first place.
• Tigers in last place.
• Sabathia and Betancourt being terrible.
• Shoppach fumbling.

Open questions:

• Pronk, or just Travis?
• New Jake or Good Old Jake?
• Why must C.C. be such a disappointment?
• Too soon for a Dellichaels death watch?
• Too soon for a Tigers 2008 season death watch?
• How healthy will Victor be this season?
• Can Cliff Lee really bounce back to be a pretty good pitcher?
• Can Carmona just continue being awesome without interruption?

My real prediction:  Another long season for Tigers fans.

I learned something from my post yesterday, from the way it not only didn't provoke much discussion, it actually seemed to chill discussion everywhere on the site.  It just seemed to trigger the latent resignation that flows in our veins as Cleveland fans.  Maybe I've should have known better, maybe I thought your intelligence would kick in, maybe I owe you an apology.

But people ... how could you fall for that?

Have you forgotten who and what this team really is?

The guys who went 96-66, the best record in baseball.

The guys who played through snow-outs, who played three home openers and won all three.

The guys who set the tone early by sweeping the Tigers in Detroit.

The guys with the best and deepest rotation, the most dominant 1-2 punch, the Cobra, the best big three, and the goddam Cy Young winner.

The guys who beat the best pitcher in the game five times in one season, when no other team had ever beat him three times.

These guys.

The guys who stalled out in June and July but never collapsed, and the guys who charged back to dominate down the stretch.

The guys who took a surging Twins team, coming off a 9-3 run and threatening to get back in the race, and swept them both home and way, six wins over ten days , to end their season.

The guys who unceremoniously booted the Tigers out of the race with yet another sweep, sending them 7.5 games back when they could have been 1.5 games back.  That's the photo at the top, the first game of that series, Casey Blake with the walkoff in the 11th.

The guys who delivered a vicious beatdown to the Yankees in the playoffs, chilling and silencing a Yankee Stadium crowd.  The guys who – let's just put it out there – nearly sent the best team in the game home early.

The guys with the fists.

The guys with the grit.

And the clutch.

And yes, the guys who know all about pi ... and all about pie.

(Purely as an aside, when you do an image search for Chris Antonetti, one of the first results to pop up is this, which I take as just further proof that people must really, really love being a part of the Indians organization.)

Yeah, that's right ... those guys.  You love those guys, remember?  And they're more or less awesome, remember?

Those guys are back.  Those guys have gotten better.

Those guys are going to win this year, and this is why.

1. Pure talent.  Seriously, did you really think the Tigers had more pure talent than the Indians?  Sure, the Tigers had some injuries, but they had a bunch of fluke seasons, and all it got them was 88 wins.  They had to import Miguel Cabrera just to try to close the gap.
   
   Let me tell you about a difference in talent.  On our club, we make Cliff Lee fight and practically grovel for the last spot in the rotation.  On their club, they trade for "the Cliff Lee of the NL" and hand him the #3 starter job.  When your #7 starter is about as good as their #3, that isn't just us having depth, it's them being in trouble.
   
   People ... half our roster was born in the 80's.  We aren't on the wrong side of 30, we're on the right side of 28.  Our roster is younger, less injury prone, and full of guys who could take small or large steps forward.  Garko or even Peralta could hit 30 home runs, and Sizemore could make a run at an MVP.  Our catcher created 109 runs last season, theirs only 59 – and our guy is 29, while theirs is 36.
   
   The Indians won 96 games last season, and our players as a group are on the rise.  The Tigers won 88 games last season, and their players on the whole are in decline.  MIguel Cabrera isn't enough to close that gap, and they traded most of their best young talent to get him.  The Tigers may have a hair more raw talent than the Indians on their roster, but too much of that talent is old and breaking down.
   
   
2. Regression is a bitch ... for the other guys.  It's the most clear-cut, powerful and undeniable force in baseball – stronger than the age curve and more reliable than platoon splits.  The Tigers may seem poised to bounce back from a down year, but their 88 wins were propped up by a number of flukey career seasons, while our 96 wins by and large were not.
   
   Just look at the BABIP for the two teams' regulars.  The bottom of the list is Sheffield, who wasn't so much unlucky as he was playing hurt.  Then there's Hafner, who definitely suffered some bad luck even if that wasn't his only problem.  Then there's Inge, who won't be a factor, and Victor, who will.  Check it out:  Victor put up downballot-MVP type numbers despite hitting into some of the worst luck on either team.  It would be hard to bet on him improving on 2007, but his luck probably will.
   
   Now look at the top of the list – Ordoñez at .381, Granderson at .360, Polanco at .346, compared with their career marks of .314, .344 and .314.   And not even listed there – Renteria at .375, against a career mark of .322.  The snapback to reality on these guys is going to be enormous – PECOTA is mean-projecting a 56-run drop in production from Ordoñez alone – essentially negating the upgrade from Inge to Cabrera – to go with a 40-run drop for Granderson and a 30-run drop for Renteria.
   
   In fairness, PECOTA predicts every player to drop after a good season, but this is an extreme case.  Granderson production rate is not expected to fall off much – he will be 27 after all – but then again, Sizemore's high-looking .333 BABIP is actually below his career average, meaning he too was slightly unlucky, and Hafner also is a good bet to improve at least somewhat on 2007.  As for the Tigers, their best bounceback candidate is a 39-year-old who's missed 150 games over the past two seasons.
   
   So regression is a bitch for the TIgers, who won't score 900 runs this season, let alone 1000.  But for the Indians, regression helps our lineup and work out about even in the rotation, where stellar seasons from Sabathia and Carmona were evenly matched by trainwrecks from Lee, Sowers and Westbrook.
   
   And you know who else is due for some good luck with the balls in play?  Joe Borowski.
   
   
3. Stellar depth.  Another one I can't believe you fell for.  How many teams have Josh Barfield as their 4th middle infielder, or Ben Francisco as their 6th outfielder, or Andy Marte as a backup third baseman, or Jeremy Sowers as their 7th starter, or Tom Mastny as their 9th reliever?  I'll tell you how many, none.  Every one of those guys would be playing in many other teams' lineups, rotations and bullpens.  It's totally ridiculous, and it's a great advantage, and it will absolutely matter this year, as it matters every year for almost every team.
   
   
4. Stellar youth.  Of course young players are inconsistent, but they improve more often than they decline.  Our youngest and least experienced key players will start at 2B and RF this season.  Any risk there is strongly mitigated by the fact that for both players, much of their value is in their exceptional defense, which is far more predictable.  And besides, the bar is incredibly low for each – the chance that we'll get less production out of those two positions in 2008 than we did in 2007 is practically nil.
   
   
5. Babied arms.  We have the best medical staff in the game, and they know how to protect pitchers.  Case in point:  Westbrook has never been more effective than in the second half last season, and this Spring he looked even better.  Carmona is going to be fine, he breezed economically through almost every start last year, hardly ever pitching under stress.  C.C. may show a little wear, but it won't break us.  And as for the other guys, who cares?  Our guys break down less than on any other team, and besides, we've got that stellar depth, too.
   
   
6. Wacky bullpens – not a problem.  You don't ever really know about bullpens.  Some years they collapse, some years they're stellar.  Here's the thing though ... last year, our bullpen collapsed and was stellar.  Just look at the body count:  Foulke, Oldberto, Matt Miler, J.D., Fernando – and most of the flame-outs were happening while Sowers, Lee and Westbrook were struggling to get into the 4th inning.
   
   That's enough to break most teams' bullpens, which in turn is enough to break most teams – but not the Indians.  They planned ahead, stocked up.  Spent most of the decade acquiring and developing arms, then picked up four veterans in the offseason – and they took good care of Rafael Betancourt.  That gave them a full boat of experienced guys in Cleveland, plus 4-5 young guys on the brink in Buffalo – plus Jensen Lewis in Akron.
   
   So despite all the flame-outs, the Indians finished with the 6th best bullpen ERA in the majors – not only didn't the bullpen sink the Indians, it was actually a strength.  The Indians keep 21 pitchers on the 40-man roster for just 12 big-league jobs, and this is the reason why.
   
   And now they've done it again, picking up Kobayashi, Julio, and Breslow to replace Oldberto, Miller and Fultz.  And this year, we've got Perez and Lewis taking the place of two multi-year head-scratchers.  And young'uns Mastny, Mujica, Santos and Stevens in Buffalo.  And who's to say we won't have another surprise breakout like Lewis' last year – Scott Lewis?  J.D. Martin?  Tony Sipp?  Adam Mller?  It's not that any one of these guys is likely to contribute, but the Indians have a ton of pitchers in various states of development and repair, and they basically never trade any.  At some point, it becomes more likely than not that one or more will contribute, even from the rehab bin.
   
   The Indians start off with a strong bullpen, full of guys with strong track records and hard-to-hit stuff, and it's considerably more stocked than Detroit's .  But more than that, the Indians are very well prepared for the inevitable struggles, injuries and flame-outs, and the Tigers are not prepared at all.  Wacky bullpens can sink almost any team, but they'll have a lot of trouble sinking these Indians.
   
   
7. Good timing.  Wedge finally figured out how to beat Pythagoras last season, so we're all good now.
   
   
8. That guy, finally.  It's an even-numbered year, and that can only mean one thing:  Miller Time.  I don't know if it'll be in the bullpen or the rotation, but Atom Miller will be healthy this year, and that means a bunch of big-league hitters are going to be striking out.
   
   
9. Lack of Vizquel, Thome, Manny, Millwood, and soon Sabathia, too.  It may be strange to say that losing Sabathia is part of why we'll win, but it is.  This team, as much or as any team in professional sports, is run by grownups.  They respect players, and their affection is palpable, but when it comes to making decisions, they leave their sentimentality at the door.  They don't kid themselves – they know you can find great insights in statistical analysis, but they know it doesn't have all the answers.  They're rigorous.  They're pros.  They've avoided the Big Mistake that sinks the season – or multiple seasons.  And they've never, ever made decisions based on trying to save face with the fans.
   
   They've built a great team with that approach, and I'll tell you just one more thing about them ...
   
   
10. Grit.  Dammit, I'm telling you these guys got a lot of grit.  Victor's got grit.  Shoppach is brimming with grit.  Sizemore will be diving in the outfield when he's 50.  Stomp Lewis has to take medication just to keep his grit under control.  Borowski has nothing but grit, but he'd never complain about that, because he's so damned gritty.  Betancourt, he's got all that and a bag of grit.
    
    And our much-maligned left field platoon, Dellucci and Michaels, those guys've got more grit than most entire rosters.  You people should be worshipping at their gritty, clutchy, diving, ass-slapping feet.
    
    And what I'm trying to tell you here, and I don't even know if it's right or natural or legal, but ... Diamondview's got grit.  I don't know how they did it, but they got grit into the Diamondview somehow, and now it's spitting out chemistry and intangibles and That Elusive It Factor along with the usual performance projections and market undervaluations.  We've never seen anything like it, but I'm telling you ... Diamondview's got grit.
    
    And by the way ... Scott Elarton?  Tom Mastny?  Ben Francisco?  That's right, even our depth has grit, which means that even our grit has depth.  If somebody gritty were to go down – and they often do, because that comes with playing the game the right way, you know – we've got someone else ready to step in and play just as gritty – someone gritty enough to start on most teams.  It's totally out of control.  It's enough to make Darin Erstad retire and Joe Morgan's head explode.

So let me sum it up for you.  We've got the talent, the timing, the grit, the smarts, the chemistry and the momentum.  We've got everything worth having on a ballclub, and the only question to be settled is whether we're the best team in the game or merely the best in our division.

It's our year.  And it starts today.