(Part 4 of a series.  See Part 1 - The Starters, Part 2 - The Infield, Part 3 - Wait. What?)

This will be a little different than the first three installments, because prospects are a little different than major league players.  My sense is that major league teams are much more consistent in how they evaluate major league players than they are minor league players.  Guys in the majors have a longer track record of performance and inherently less risk since they are already at the major league level.  Players in the minors, especially the further they are from the big leagues, have shorter performance records and much more risk of completely crapping out (indeed, for players in lower levels, a great likelihood of crapping out).  Major league teams vary considerably, however, into how they balance scouting, performance, and projection of minor league players, and thus their value is more volatile.  One team may value a player highly, another may be sure he'll bust out long before he reaches the bigs.  As such, the value of prospects in trades is more difficult to ascertain.  I'm going to make a few generalizations beforehand:

• Players closer to the majors (AAA and AA) generally have more trade value because the risk associated with them is much lower
• Among lower minor players, the valuation of players will be more variable, but except for those guys given the "blue-chip" label, most guys aren't going to have much trade value because of the gap between where they are at and the major league
• The Indians don't have any "blue-chip" prospects (this does not mean the Indians system is "bad").  Adam Miller used to be one and might still have blue-chip stuff, but injuries have removed that label.  Chuck Lofgren was on the brink of blue-chip status two years ago, but his development has stalled out with control issues in Akron.  Again, he's still young enough to turn it around, but his trade value is not what it probably once was (or could have been).  Nick Weglarz might be a blue-chip prospect by the end of the season, but is too far-away right now.  Beau Mills still has something of a blue-chip after-sheen lingering from last year's draft, but hasn't claimed that title yet in the minors.
• Minor league relievers don't have much value unless they are (a) close to the majors, and (b) really, really dominant
• Because of the reasons outlined above my list will be weighted towards guys in Buffalo andAkron and will be divided simply into guys with value and guys with marginal value.  To put these into perspective, when we tradedColon to the Expos, Brandon Philips was a prospect with value (a real "blue-chipper").  Sizemore was a guy with marginal value who the Indians correctly (or luckily) identified as a guy with real potential value, but still quite far from the bigs.

Guys with Value

Jordan Brown
Professional Seasons (including current)/Current Level/Age: 4/AAA/24

• PRO – Garko's still under our control for awhile and a guy like Beau Mills, who is a likely 1B, has a higher projected ceiling
• PRO – coming off consecutive league-MVPs at Kinston andAkron, perhaps raising his value among certain evaluators
• CON – Brown could in some circumstances be a major league contributor this year given out lack of production at all the offensive corners

Shin-Soo Choo
Professional Seasons/Current Level/Age: 8/MLB/25

• PRO – we've got a lot of almost good corner outfielders about the same age/status as Choo already
• PRO – Choo looks like he's best used as a strict platoon player

• PRO – Trading Choo frees up a 25-man and 40-man roster spot

• CON – Choo's value, coming off a serious injury, is probably at a low

Wes Hodges
Professional Seasons/Current Level/Age: 3/AA/23

• PRO – Hodges got off to a hot start and has a big school pedigree coming out of Georgia Tech
• CON – Casey Blake is our 3B, the organization has shown little confidence in Andy Marte, and we don't have a 3B prospect inBuffalo.  This makes Hodges our closest to the bigs 3B in the minors.

Beau Mills
Professional Seasons/Current Level/Age: 2/A+/21

• PRO – His professional track record is still short enough that his value is buoyed by his impressive college numbers and scouting evaluation, which projects him as a legit major-league power corner infield bat
• CON – Can't be traded till after the June draft under any circumstances
• CON – He's our best power prospect and one of only two in our system (along with Weglarz, see below)

Nick Weglarz
Professional Seasons/Current Level/Age: 4/A+/20

• PRO – He's Canadian
• PRO – We might forever lose Andrew as a Tribe fan
• CON – We might forever lose Andrew as a Tribe fan
• CON – Weglarz value as a prospect is just beginning to develop and, with decent odds, will increase considerably over the next 1-2 seasons

Adam Miller
Professional Seasons/Current Level/Age: 6/AAA/23

• PRO – We have the best starting pitching in the majors right now
• PRO – We have a lot of minor league starting pitching depth
• CON – We'll have at least two rotation spots to fill next year and Miller probably still remains a candidate for one of them (although the latest injury might put that in doubt).  This CON will hold for every starting pitcher at the AA/AAA level.
• CON – Coming off and going into injuries, Miller's value probably is not equal to his pitching "stuff"

David Huff
Professional Seasons/Current Level/Age: 3/AA/23

• PRO – How many soft-tossing lefties does one organization need?
• CON – He's our best close, but-not-yet in the majors starting pitcher right now as well as our likely 6th man next year (assuming Laffey and Sowers fill the spots vacated by CC and Byrd)

Chuck Lofgren
Professional Seasons/Current Level/Age: 5/AA/22

• PRO – Lofgren's young enough and has shown enough (maybe) flashes of good pitching this season to still have decent value
• CON – Lofgren's like the Cliff Lee of minor-league pitching prospects in the Indians system: fantastic stuff, a lot of early success followed by stagnation and control issues, the potential to still put it all together into something very good

Guys with Marginal Value

Wyatt Toregas:

• PRO – his defense is probably good enough to be considered a viable major league backup catcher
• PRO – We've got Victor and Kelly for awhile if we want them
• CON – he's currently the Indians 3^rd catcher with an uninspiring group of players below him in Akron and Kinston

Continue reading this post »

Yes, the glorious day has finally arrived.  After a 20-month hiatus, I'm finally excavating and updating my ramshackle prospect ranking system, formerly known as the Exciting Prospects Standard and now redubbed with the more apt (but no more humble) moniker, Prospects That Matter.  Actually, it's not really a ranking system, it's actually a separating-the-men-from-the-boys system; the specific rankings are secondary, and frankly, I don't give them a great deal of thought.  It is perhaps best described as a way of organizing the way we look at our young talent.

Why the new name?  Well, my friends, I'm older now, and wiser, or perhaps more tolerant, or perhaps just lazier.  If you really find Chris Gimenez exciting, I'm not going to argue with you about it.  If, on the other hand, you want to tell me that Chris Gimenez should actually matter to an Indians fan, well, then, you might just have a fight on your hands.  The aim of the system remains the same, and that is, for a diehard Indians fan who doesn't follow the minors closely, to identify those prospects that are really worth knowing about -- and not to bother that fan with guys who are merely over-hyped or over-drafted.

PTM attempts to identify:  Which guys are the most likely to contribute to the Indians winning a pennant?  Which guys are going to contribute the most, and which guys are going to contribute the soonest?  To that end, the PTM player must meet one of these criteria:

• In Triple-A: succeeding at age 25, solid at 24, or younger.
• In Double-A: succeeding at age 23, solid at 22, or younger.
• In High-A: succeeding at age 21, solid at 20, or younger.
  
• In Low-A: succeeding at age 19, solid at 18, or younger.
• In short-season leagues: solid at age 17 or younger.

Triple-A players making this list are major-league-ready or nearly so and basically just waiting for an opportunity, while the High-A players on the list generally will be fairly high ceiling, and their success at such a young age makes them fairly likely to be a good major leaguer.  The Double-A players are a nice mix of readiness and likely success.  "Successful" generally means that he performed well enough to be promoted, and I try to take a nuanced view of a player's stats.  I start with basic productivity but keep a careful eye on peripherals, and particularly on K rates for pitchers.

Statements from team officials may also be considered, but ultimately the choice to promote or not to promote a player is more credible than any verbal statement.  Scouting reports are taken into account, but mostly with an eye toward projecting a player's defensive skills and likely role in the majors, which affects how good his bat will have to be in order to make it – in other words, in terms of pure hitting skills, the bar is lower for a standout defender like Brad Snyder than it is for a merely solid guy like Ben Francisco.  Injuries are always considered a negative factor, and in the PTM context, I never consider injuries a mitigating factor for a mediocre performance.

In 2006, PTM stubbornly championed guys like Carmona, AstroCab and Lofgren before they were fashionable, Adam Miller even when he was injured, solid successes like Garko and frustrating cases like Ferd and Marte – the system is fundamentally better at predicting who will earn a shot in the majors than who will succeed there, though it may be no worse than other systems in that regard.  Recent draft picks without track record and over-21 types dominating in the low minors were excluded without mercy, a tendency of PTM that irritated some fans in 2006 and will continue to irritate in 2008.  PTM preaches patience, not only at the plate but in our prospect rankings.  There are some guys I don't like leaving certain guys off the list any more than you do, but if the performance is there, those guys will jump on the list soon enough.

A note about the ages listed – it's their "seasonal age" for 2007, not 2008, listed that way because it's based on that age that we're evaluating their achievements so far.  I also pay little mind to "official" rules as to what makes a prospect.  If a player is 25 or younger and not a fully established major leaguer, he's a prospect in every way that actually matters to a team, or to a fan.

Prospects That Really, Really Matter — players who've met PTM criteria at an excessively young age.

1. Asdrubal Cabrera – 21, SS-2B, thrived in Double-A and was solid in the majors.  As if you didn't know.
2. Aaron Laffey – 22, RHP, not a lot of strikeouts but also not a lot of walks, performed  well and "equivalently" from Akron to Cleveland.
   
3. Adam Miller – 22, RHP, struggled with injuries but way ahead of the curve in Triple-A.  Still very much a potential ace.
   
4. Jensen Lewis – 23, RHP, unusual to rank a reliever this high, but Lewis truly dominated in Akron, and then Buffalo, and then Cleveland, and then against the Yankees in the playoffs, with an ERA under 2.00 and K rate over 10.  Frankly, this ranking might not be high enough — no other Indians prospect performed at this high of a level in 2007.
   
5. Andy Marte – 23, 3B, and you don't have to like it.  For one thing, once a guy has made the list, he only graduates by getting too old or succeeding in the majors.  Try to imagine 2007 was Marte's first season in Triple-A — 766 OPS, 23-year-old third baseman, it's actually pretty good.  But of course, his actual first season in Triple-A was at age 21.  His three-year total, ages 21-22-23, are .268/.337/.473.
6. Chuck Lofgren – 21, LHP, those who were disapointed by his season in Akron were forgetting how young he is to be an above-average pitcher at this level.  Lofgren will spend his age-22 season in Double-A, and he's a lefty with better stuff than Laffey or Sowers.

Prospects That Really Matter — those who beat the PTM criteria with room to spare.

7. Jeremy Sowers – 24, LHP, and like Marte, he would make the list based only on his age and 2007 numbers alone, but the high ranking is for his dazzling 2006 performance at age 23.
   
8. Sean Smith – 23, RHP, not turning any heads but had a very solid season in Triple-A.
   
9. Shin-Soo Choo – 24, OF, obviously slowed by injuries, but as with Sowers, we'd do well not to forget what he did at age 23.
   
10. Eddie Mujica — 23, RHP, also slowed by injuries, and also more impressive in 2006 than in 2007, but check out the great K/BB rates.  Still a potential impact reliever if he's healthy.
    

Prospects That Matter — others who've cleared the bar.

11. Nick "Weglarz!" Weglarz – 19, OF, bounced back from injury to make a stellar full-season debut.
    
12. Ben Francisco – 25, OF, improved on his age-24 numbers and made a solid debut in the majors.
    
13. Jordan Brown – 23, 1B, a knee injury reportedly sapped his power, but he still hit .333, and it will be interesting to see how his power develops this season.
14. Jeanmar Gomez – 18, RHP, suffocated Dominican Summer League hitters at 16 (2005) and dominated the Gulf Coast League at 17 (2006), although a bit reminiscent of Carmona, you have to wonder how a guy manages a 2.50 ERA with just 5.92 K/9.  His full-season debut was merely decent, and he's going to have to show more strikeouts and fewer home runs as he progresses, but he improved in both areas as the season progressed.  He'll be starting his age-19 season at High-A, something nobody else on this list has done or will do – youth and progress, that's what we're looking for here.  Somebody really needs to do a scouting report on this guy.
15. Jeff Stevens – 23, RHP, eye-popping K rates in Double-A and apparently not content to be a footnote, he may well hit the  Cleveland bullpen in 2008.
    
16. Carlos Rivero – 19, SS, marginal overall numbers, but a plus defender with a solid walk rate, and a decent amount of pop for a teenage middle infielder.
    
17. John Drennen – 20, CF, not unlike Lofgren, his struggles caused some to:: forget that he was one of the youngest players in his league.
18. Hector Rondon – 19, RHP, pitched better than Gomez at Lake County but is a year older, will also start the season in the Kinston rotation.
    

A few themes emerge on this year's list.  For one thing, it's huge, which either means I'm getting more lenient, or the criteria are letting in certain types of players too easily, or  that the Indians are justified in their strong confidence about the depth of their farm system, defying most "organizational talent" rankings.  A small core of players has been promoted to the advanced-A Kinston club to start the year at age 19 or 20, and it's a happy mix of two pitchers, one skill position player and one power-hitting Canadian.  This complements well the small core of college draftees who will converge on Akron in 2008 (with a good shot to make next year's list).

The other theme is guys succeeding in Triple-A at very young ages – not just at 25 but at 22 – but then possibly being stuck there, possibly because of a limited ceiling, possibly because that last jump to majors is the hardest.  Spots 5-10 are fairly dominated by a sense of, "Don't give up on me, I'm still young, I still matter!"  They all reached Buffalo by 22, and not one of them is 25 yet.

It may be that a future refinement of PTM should raise the bar in some way for Triple-A pitchers in particular, but then again, maybe the bar is just fine.  Part of the premise of the system is that a guy who reaches Triple-A at 22 may have the same stats as a low-ceiling 25-year-old, but he's got three whole seasons to figure out how to make that last jump.  Some research suggests that unlike a hitter's raw tools, a pitcher's stuff doesn't really improve after age 23, but it takes pretty good stuff just to get this far, and there's more to pitching than just stuff.  Something to ponder going forward.

More lists after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Indians.com is reporting that Matt Whitney has been returned to the Indians organization, and he'll be starting the 2008 season with the Double-A Akron Aeros rather than the (nominally) major league Washington Nationals.

Whitney was a stud hitting prospect when the Indians drafted him out of high school in the first round of the 2002 draft.  After drawing comparisons to Manny Ramirez, he promptly broke his leg and has struggled for five years to produce anything resembling the work of an elite or even good prospect.

Whitney's value was further reduced when he was moved from 3B to 1B at the start of the 2007 season, in recognition of his reduced mobility.  But that move may have contributed to a re-awakening of his bat, as he finally put up solid numbers in Lake County and performed even better once promoted to Kinston.

Even that performance, however, still left Whitney as a 23-year-old prospect who'd never seen Double-A, conquering the lower minors only at a relatively advanced age and in his fourth season at that level.  Faced with a 40-man roster crunch, the Indians chose to expose Whitney to December's Rule 5 draft, in which both he and Aeros CF Brian Barton were selected by the Nationals and Cardinals respectively.

Barton has more or less thrived with the Cardinals and is more of a classic Rule 5 pick, with speed and defensive skills that make him useful even if only as the 25th man on the big-league roster.  Whitney realistically was a very long-shot to stick with any major league club, however, having never faced even Double-A pitching and bringing little to any roster except his bat.  Unsurprisingly, he struggled against major league pitching, even against advanced prospects and non-roster invitees.

Still just 24 years old, Whitney remains a real prospect even if not a particularly accomplished one as a minor leaguer.  His 2007 performance leaves open the question, is he first-round talent, finally recovered and showing his real ability?  Or is he a marginal talent, who was merely starting to peak at 23, doing well (but not dominating) against younger and less experienced players?  The age-22 or -23 player who does well in A-ball is a cliche in terms of unfounded prospect hype, but Whitney's first-round talent and subsequent injury at least raises an eyebrow, even for an old-prospect skeptic like me.  How he performs at age 24 in Double-A will tell the tale.