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Jake Westbrook

#37 / Pitcher / Cleveland Indians

6-3

215

R

R

Sep 28, 1977

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008 - Jake Westbrook 4 0 0 28 0 0 0 0 5 16 0 0 .000 .000 .000

Week In Review: April 22-28



This week:  5-2
Overall:  12-14
Scoring:  38-20
Old Mood:  2.9
New Mood:  5.2

  W L % GB
Chicago 14 10 .583 -
Cleveland 12 14 .462 3.0
Minnesota 11 14 .440 3.5
Kansas City 11 14 .440 3.5
Detroit 11 15 .423 4.0

The series:  Visited the Royals (win, win, win) and hosted the Yankees (win, win, loss, loss).

The big story:  There were several, and perhaps the biggest was simply that we had a strong week, winning five of seven to move into second place.   But the most significant development for the 2008 season going forward was C.C. Sabathia's total U-turn from trainwreck to dominant starter.  Sabathia gave up just one run over 14 innings, striking out 11 hapless Royals in the first game and tossing an 8-inning gem in which only five Yankees reached base in the second.  This pair of consecutive starts was one of the best of Sabathia's career, surpassed in 2007 only by his back-to-back shutouts in June.  At the same time, his first four starts were so horrendous (13.50 ERA) that even after the extreme two-start bounce-back, his ERA is still the worst in the majors at 7.88 – even worse than Barry Zito's.  Sabathia's excellence ended up being of no real immediate consequence, as the Indians turned the first one into a 15-1 rout, then handed Sabathia a tough 1-0 loss in the second.

In other news:  Jake Westbrook unexpectedly went on the Disabled List with a lower-back muscle strain.  Initially expected to miss only a few starts, he's now expected to be out for a full month after his symptoms persisted for a full week.  His injury, combined with a rain-delay-induced double-header, resulted in a flurry of call-ups and send-downs as the Indians played with an extra outfielder for a few days (Ben Francisco), swapped out for a spot starter (Jeremy Sowers) on Saturday, swapped out for another extra outfielder (Brad Snyder) on Sunday, and finally on Monday swapped out for Aaron Laffey, who will join the rotation at least for the following week.  Both starters made fine 2008 debuts against the Yankees, with Laffey looking significantly stronger than Sowers even though the box scores will claim the opposite.

Lee deepened his improbable run as the game's most effective pitcher with a complete game shutout, as the national media joined Indians fans in collectively dropping their jaws.  The lineup blew up for 24 runs in the first two games but then fizzled with just 14 runs in the next five, a trend led by Casey Blake, who posted a 2125 OPS in two games against the Royals but just a 350 OPS starting all four games against the Yankees.  The post-Borowski bullpen started to come together as Kobayashi asserted himself with a few strong setup performances while Betancourt breezed through his first two Save opportunities, making the closer's job look suspiciously un-different from his old setup-man gig.

Adam Miller finally made his official 2008 debut in Buffalo, following a few weeks rehabbing a blister and a few weeks in extended spring training.  Miller pitched nine scoreless innings in two starts while continuing to build up his pitch count, and his velocity was intact even if his peripherals weren't.  Miller's return, coupled with Brian Slocum's solid start, suggests that the Indians remain an absurd eight-deep in big-league-ready starting pitchers, even after putting Westbrook on the DL and shipping Sean Smith off to Colorado.  At the same time, David Huff, 39th overall draft pick in 2006, overcame a rocky first two starts to pitch his third straight gem for the Akron Aeros, allowing just one run (on a solo shot) and 13 baserunners against 19 strikeouts over the three games, and he picked off a couple guys, too.  If Huff continues to emerge, that may further tempt the Indians to move Miller into the big-league bullpen.

Post of the week:  Now taking nominations.

Who fed it: Sabathia dominated in two starts while Lee was near-spotless in his one.  Julio excelled in two low-leverage outings, while Kobayashi and Betancourt settled into their new roles; the three relievers faced 32 batters and got 29 outs, including two erased on double-plays, and allowed no one past first base.  Blake had the best all-around numbers of any hitter on the week but was abysmal against the Yankees.  Victor batted .375, achieving a 902 OPS on the week with (once again) no home runs.  Dellucci and Peralta each combined a solid average with a pair of home runs.  Seemingly competing for at bats, Michaels and Gutierrez both accounted for a major chunk of our otherwise anemic offense against the Yankees, the former batting .400 while the latter slugged .600, and they looked damned good in the field, too.  Special mention must be given to Aaron Laffey, who no-hit the Yankees for five innings and, through sheer horrendous luck alone, gave up four runs in the 6th when he deserved to give up, at most, one. Absolute Best:  Sabathia.  Relative Best:  Lee.

Who ate it:  It's hard to say what the worst part of Ryan Garko's week was, the .042 average, the .115 OBP or the .083 slugging.  I'm going with the .042 average, because he was just one walk short of decent walk rate, and hey, his isolated power is almost 2.0!  Unfortunately, even those minimal contributions were mostly confined to last Tuesday's game, and Garko's line for the last five games was .000/.048/.000.  Aside from Garko, the rest of the Indians put up a more-than-respectable .302/.360/.451 line for the week.  Hafner continued his harrowing march to the bottom, with week-by-week OPS totals of 824, 761, 592 and (this week) 512 — or, if you prefer, he has a 559 OPS over his last 17 games.  Absolute Worst:  Garko.  Relative Worst:  Garko.  Twenty Other Kinds Of Worst:  Garko.  And Yet The Guy Who Really Makes Me Suicidal Is Still:  Hafner.

The other guys:  We made Wang look like Bob Gibson.  The rest of it, pretty fuzzy, maybe I'll fill it in later, does anybody really care about this section?

False alarms:

  • Cliff Lee, greatest pitcher in the universe.
  • Chien-Ming Wang, second greatest.
  • C.C. Sabathia, third greatest (he's actually about tenth).
  • Ben Francisco in a Cleveland uniform.
  • Ryan Garko, worst hitter ever.
  • Jhonny Peralta on web gems last night.
  • J-Mike, serviceable big-league hitter.

Open questions:

  • How long will Jake be out, and once he returns, will he be totally awesome, or merely awesome?
  • How long can Chicago stay at the top of the standings?
  • Since any blogger writing in his/her parents' basement in his/her underwear can notice when a reliever's velocity is down 3-5 mph, and might actually write about it without the team's permission, what exactly do we need newspaper columnists for?
  • Too soon to start panicking about losing Cliff Lee after 2010?
  • When the hell is Slider's birthday, anyway?
  • Can Kobayashi confuse hitters with his deathballs all season like Okajima did?
  • Can Julio be useful?
  • How long will we keep marching Stomp Lewis out there with reduced velocity?
  • Just how bad will the game have to be going before we see Mastny or Breslow again, and how bad will they be after a 15-day layoff?
  • Has anyone noticed that Eddie Mujica is in his last option year?  Does anyone care?
  • How much better can Laffey be than he was last year?  Is his ceiling is higher than we think?
  • Can Steel Rafi get settled and find some semblance of his 2007 consistency?
  • How many relievers would have to be failing completely for Adam Miller to get the call to the big-league bullpen?  Do we even want to see him there?
  • Could Sowers be on the block soon?
  • Is it really possible for Marte to spend 120 more days on the roster than Ben Francisco this season, and yet still get fewer at bats?
  • Is Wedge basically just testing Marte to see how long it takes him to get an obviously bad attitude, at which point they ship him out?
  • Will Shapiro fall for this kind of nonsense again?

24 comments | 0 recs

Updates

The Game

Unlike most sites, we were "lucky" in that the game we'd have been Game Threading was delayed by rain.

The game has been rescheduled for today, 6:10 p.m., with Carmona still scheduled to start.  Today's originally scheduled 8:10 p.m. game has been pushed back to 9:40 p.m., with Lee still scheduled to start.

The Rotation

Jeremy Sowers will make the spot-start on Saturday, filling in for Jake Westbrook.  This is a mild surprise, as Aaron Laffey has slightly better numbers so far this season for Buffalo.  Wedge has said that Francisco is likely to be sent down to make room for Sowers ("I told Benny it's more than likely just a couple days.")

An unfortunate side-effect of the postponement of last night's game is that, if two games are actually played tonight, the Indians will need not just one spot starter on Saturday, but also a second spot starter on Monday.  With no rest day until May 5, the Indians would have to start Carmona on short rest on Monday in order to keep the five-man rotation in order, even with Sowers added.

Instead, the Indians will need another spot-starter on Monday, and that game's starter will also be lined up to take the mound the next time he's needed, on Saturday, May 3.  In other words, if both games are played tonight, then Sowers likely will be sent down to after this Saturday's game, to be replaced by another pitcher who can start on Monday and the following Saturday.

One would think that would be Laffey, but Laffey is scheduled to start for Buffalo tonight, which would put him on short rest for a Monday start.  Tantalizingly, Monday will be Adam Miller's turn in the rotation in Buffalo.  Miller emerged from March's rehab and April's extended spring training to make his official 2008 debut last night, pitching five innings and giving up three runs, though none earned, throwing 84 pitches and looking "completely healthy."  He has never pitched in the majors.

After May 3, the fifth starter could be skipped until May 12, but if Sowers is demoted this Sunday, he will not be eligible to return until May 17.  Given the Indians' fondness for playing with a 27-man roster, with four reasonably good spot-starter options in Buffalo and on the 40-man roster – these three plus Brian Slocum – we may well see three different spot starters over the next month if Westbrook remains out that long.

Westbrook is eligible to return from the DL as early as May 6.

The Site

As you probably noticed, the site was down last night, along with the entire SBN 2.0 network.  There was a massive but intermittent failure following a significant server upgrade performed the night before, and the network couldn't be brought back online without making significant changes and diagnostic tests.  The problem turned out to be bad RAM, but as those with an IT background can attest, it's very rare to have bad RAM cause intermittent problems rather than immediate failure, which made it hard to track down.

Naturally the SBN folks are deeply disappointed and frustrated to have had these problems, and naturally we all were annoyed by it — and naturally, this whole experience has the technical team already planning out deeper redundancies and "more paranoid" upgrade processes (their words).  On the other hand, I believe there's been less than ten hours of downtime on SBN over the past 30 months since I got involved, and the technical ambition of the 2.0 network speaks for itself.

Things may be a bit spotty for the next day or two, but we're told that the major failures should be over.  For future reference, we'll post updates on the LGT Facebook group forum in the event of a significant outage.

34 comments | 0 recs

Short-term rotation options

With Jake headed to the DL, the Indians will need to call up a starter from Triple-A to take his spot in the rotation.  Only two starts need to be covered if Jake's stay lasts only the minimum 15 days, which is likely.

To avoid starting anyone on short rest, the Indians will need a spot start by Saturday the 26th at the latest.  Westbrook's turn comes up on Friday the 25th, but Byrd could start a day early, Friday rather than Saturday, and still be on the usual four days of rest.

Fortunately, the Indians have four Triple-A starters who could be used without disrupting their normal routines too much.

Aaron Laffey looks like the odds-on favorite, and he could start Friday, in Westbrook's usual spot, with just one extra day of rest.  He's got a 3.13 ERA in four starts and is coming off five scoreless innings with 5 K and 2 BB.

Jeremy Sowers is a close second choice, with overall numbers that are very similar to Laffey's but are just slightly lesser.  His K:BB are 16:8 rather than 18:6, and his BIP aren't quite as grounded.  He could start Saturday on regular rest, with Byrd moving up his start to Friday.

Sean Smith makes an intriguing option and could start on regular rest Friday or with one extra day on Saturday.  He got roughed up two starts ago but is carrying a heavy 10 K/9, something neither Laffey or Sowers is every likely to do.  Smith is not on the 40-man roster, however, so another player would have to be released, traded for a minor leaguer, or moved to the 60-day DL in order to add him.  Further, with four other Triple-A starters already on the 40-man, there's no reason to think adding Smith now would turn out to be useful later in the season.

Atom Miller makes for the most interesting choice of all, however unlikely.  Miller finished rehabbing weeks ago and has been in extended Spring Training ever since, preparing to start his season tomorrow night in Buffalo.  The Indians certainly could have Miller throw a bullpen session tomorrow rather than making his scheduled start, which would have him set up to start a game on Friday or Saturday.  I don't think they'd do that considering how (justifiably) careful they've been with Miller ... but you never know.

Scott Elarton and Brian Slocum will not be considered, in Slocum's case because he pitched tonight and so could not step into the Indians rotation on regular rest, and in Elarton's case because he's been used out of the bullpen all season and hasn't faced more than 14 batters in any game – in the majors, minors or Spring Training – since last June.

12 comments | 0 recs

Game Eighteen: Twins 3, Indians 0

20080419_indians_twins_0_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA
Lowest WPA
Ryan Garko .032 David Dellucci -.131
Jorge Julio .008 Travis Hafner -.108
Franklin Gutierrez -.020 Jake Westbrook -.075

Westbrook pitched just as well as Nick Blackburn, but Blackburn had the Twins defense behind him. Whether it was good throws, turning hard-hit grounders into double plays, or making good catches in the outfield, the Minnesota glovework essentially won the game.

Jake Westbrook made a first-inning mistake to Justin Morneau, and in this game, mistakes were fatal. Normally throwing 7 innings and allowing 3 runs would be good enough to at least avoid a loss.  The non-Sabathia starts have been promising; now the team just has to start hitting.

25 comments | 0 recs

Game Thirteen: Red Sox 6, Indians 4

20080414_redsox_indians_0_medium

 Joe Borowski WPA: -.742

This Manny Ramirez quote pretty much says all you need to know about how Joe Borowski pitched last night:

"[It was] like a fastball," Ramirez said. "It was something like 80 [mph]. Or a changeup. It was right there."

 If what Joe Borowski threw to Ramirez was a fastball, then there's something wrong with him physically. If that's the case, at least there's reason to hope that Joe can regain those mphs that he's lost. If he's healthy, then he can't be the closer any longer.

"The ball just wasn't coming out of his hand like you typically see with him," manager Eric Wedge said, "and he didn't have the location he normally has."

Such concerns reek of potential arm or shoulder trouble, and Borowski did not deny that a postgame MRI exam was a possibility.

All of which points Joe not entering the game the next time a save situation presents itself. It stinks that it had to come down to this, for Borowski's velocity has been down all season - it wasn't like he was throwing faster in his first few appearances. And what if Casey Blake had been playing his normal position to start the ninth? Would all this soul-searching have occurred even if Joe had gotten the save? I would hope so.

Of course, the reason Borowski entered the game in the first place shouldn't be forgotten. Jake Westbrook, after a high-stress first, pitched very well again, getting the Indians into the seventh inning. And the offense, while still not firing on all cylinders, showed some resemblence to the patient, pitcher-devouring approach employed last year. The only problem is that they were one hit from putting the game away in the fifth; Ryan Garko and Franklin Gutierrez struck out with the bases loaded against Julian Tavarez, who to be fair had great stuff. But the opportunity was there, and they couldn't take advantage of it.

30 comments | 0 recs

Week In Review: April 7-13



This week:  2-4
Overall:  5-7
Scoring:  30-35
Old Mood:  6.6
New Mood:  4.8

  W L % GB
Chicago 7 4 .636 -
Kansas City 7 5 .583 0.5
Minnesota 6 6 .500 1.5
Cleveland 5 7 .417 2.5
Detroit 2 10 .167 5.5

The series:  Visited the Angels (loss, win, loss) and hosted the Athletics (loss, loss, win).

The big story:  The 2008 rotation became Bizarro 2007 Rotation.  Westbrook and Lee were the team's biggest problems in early 2007, combining for a 6.99 ERA through June 2, with just four quality starts in just 13 tries, having missed nine starts due to injury.  Their paths diverged after that, with Westbrook returning from the DL to be one of the league's better pitchers in the final three months, while Lee's downward spiral culminated in three straight seven-run trainwrecks and a demotion to Buffalo.  This season, the two have combined for a 1.31 ERA and have the same four quality starts in their four tries.  This week, Westbrook was either one ground ball or 480 feet away from a shutout, depending on how you look at it, while Lee baffled the Athletics for eight innings of two-hit ball.  Lee has allowed just one walk and one extra-base hit in his two starts.

On the flip side, Carmona, so dominant in 2007, started 2008 with fine results but worrisome walk totals, and they finally caught up with him this week in an eight-walk trainwreck in which he was lucky to give up only 3 runs in 3.1 innings.  Byrd, surprisingly good to start 2007, has been surprisingly terrible to start 2008.  Sabathia, the Cy Young incumbent, produced his third trainwreck in three tries, in fact the worst of the three, and has been the worst starter in all of baseball this season.  The last time an Indians starter made three straight starts with an 11-something ERA, he was demoted to the minors the next day, despite his multi-year deal and multi-million-dollar salary.  That man, of course, was Cliff Lee.

In other news:  All in all, it feels like we're closer to 4-8 than 6-6, whether or not that's actually the case.  JoBo served up the first totally incomprehensible and indigestible loss of the year.  Iron Rafi seemed to right himself with two perfect innings following a very shaky start, while Steel Rafi got roughed up pretty good.  Carmona signed a deal almost too good to be believed, with the Indians guaranteeing just $14.5 million for 2009-2011 while securing Carmona's services at bargain prices clear through 2014.  Victor slowly returned to the lineup with little sign of ill effects.  The Tigers deepened their early-season hole with a 2-4 performance, getting outscored 39-18 and suffering the losing side of three shutouts along with a minor rash of minor injuries.  Gutierrez had the sniffles ("I am Jay's total lack of surprise"), leading to the natural conclusion that Wedge should be fired, while Dellucci defiantly emerged as our second-best hitter behind Garko.

Post of the week:  Now taking nominations.

Who fed it:  Peralta slugged a cool 947 with three home runs, now on pace for 40.    Dellucci smacked three doubles in his four starts, scored as a pinch-runner, and pulled a bases-loaded walk as a pinch-hitter, ending the week with an astonishingly useful .400/.526/.600 line.  Lee and Westbrook rocked.  Masa, J.J., Craigers and Stomp gave up 3 runs total in 13.2 innings of mostly long relief, with 10 K, 5 BB and 8 hits.  Jamey Carroll was transcendently solid, pairing deft defense with a .545 OBP.  Shoppach hit .375 with a clutch home run.  Absolute Best:  Peralta.  Relative Best:  Dellucci. 

Who ate it:  Sabathia and Byrd unequivocally crapped the bed in their only starts.  AbaCab went 4-for-19, but it's 4-for-24 if we include last Sunday's game, with just one walk and no extra bases.  Michaels was an empty 2-for-14, no walks or extra bases – which sadly raised his OPS by 50 points, all the way to 315 – and in fact his OBP (.133) was even lower than his average (.143).  Sizemore slugged just .275 over the past ten games, with no extra base hits despite a fine average (the same .275 of course) and decent OBP (.362).  Finally, since his clutch double on Opening Day, Blake's line is .129/.206/.161, and he really might be playing his way out of a job.  Absolute Worst:  Michaels.  Relative Worst:  Sabathia.

The other guys:  Joe Saunders had a terrific outing against us to start the week; K-Rod did not.  Vlad and Torii combined to go 8-for-23, and each smacked two home runs in three games.  Darren Oliver faced ten batters, hit two of them and walked one, but gave up no hits or runs.  Some poor bastard named Fernando Hernandez gave up six runs to us in two outings, recording only a HBP and a run-scoring walk in the first game.  The second time out, he very nearly got through two whole scoreless innings, but then he changed his mind and quickly gave up four runs.  Bobby Crosby went 5-for-11 with a home run and two walks.

False alarms:

  • Royals and White Sox, still in first place.
  • Sabathia being the worst pitcher in the league.
  • Cliff Lee as Cy Young candidate.
  • Marte getting a start.

Open questions:

  • Could we stop screwing around and have one really good week please?
  • Since any blogger writing in his/her parents' basement in his/her underwear can speculate on whether C.C.'s contract situation is distracting him, what exactly do we need newspaper columnists for?
  • How good can Cliff Lee really be, and for how long?
  • Can Dellucci be the nice role player he was meant to be for us?
  • Still too soon for a Michaels death-watch?
  • Too soon to mention a Caesy Blake death-watch, even in hushed tones?
  • Martevich?  Martevich Martevich Martevich Martevich?
  • Still too soon for a Tigers 2008 season death watch?
  • How healthy will Victor be this season?
  • Could Peralta be charging into a breakout season, just one month from his 26th birthday?
  • Can Cliff Lee really bounce back to be a pretty good pitcher?
  • Does anybody have any clue who will be our 2009 Opening Day starter?
  • For more than half our relievers, do we really have the slightest idea if they're really good or really bad?

86 comments | 0 recs

Games Eight and Nine

Game Eight: Indians 4, Angels 3  

20080408_indians_angels_0_medium

Highest WPA
Lowest WPA
Pronk .537 Jamey Carroll -.174
Jake Westbrook .173 Victor Martinez -.136
Asdrubal Cabrera .110 Franklin Gutierrez -.125

Jake Westbrook again pitched extremely well, and this time, he got the victory. Jake gave up three runs on seven hits, but threw nine innings on only 95 pitches. Only in the sixth inning did he face more than four hitters.

He was able to pitch the ninth thanks to Pronk's ninth inning two-run homer. Both Francisco Rodriguez and Scot Shields were unable to pitch, leaving Justin Speier to attempt the save. Speier got the first two hitters easily enough, but Asdrubal Cabrera coaxed a two-out walk, bringing up Hafner, who crushed one out to right field. If you're interested, that home run was worth .712 in WPA.


Game Nine: Angels 9, Indians 5

20080409_indians_angels_0_medium

Highest WPA
Lowest WPA
Kelly Shoppach .082 Paul Byrd -.306
Grady Sizemore .023 Asdrubal Cabrera -.082
David Dellucci .014 Travis Hafner -.082

Compared to Jake Westbrook's performance the night before, Paul Byrd looked like an emergency callup. Byrd again couldn't spot his pitches, and was thrashed by the Angels. Byrd was brutally honest after his three-inning outing:

"I haven't had my command at all," Byrd said. "I haven't had very good stuff, either. To pitch up here, you have to have one of the two, for sure. I have neither right now."

Of course, Byrd's stuff isn't really that good, at least good enough to for him to get  away with it being in the wrong location. Fausto Carmona can miss his spot and still get an out or a swinging strike. If Byrd misses his location and the pitch usually gets hit hard.

The offense was much better, and actually brought the Indians back into the game for a time. The Tribe had 12 hits, which for early 2008 was an outburst. Kelly Shoppach and Jhonny Peralta both homered, and four Indians had multi-hit games. Travis Hafner followed up his heroics the night before with an 0-4 with two strikeouts.

14 comments | 0 recs

Carmona locked up through 2014

The Indians announced today that they have signed Fausto Carmona to a three-year guranateed extension through 2011, while also extending his commitment to the Indians through the end of the 2014 season, weeks before his 31st birthday.  Carmona becomes the longest-committed Indian on the active roster, and he's one of ten who are signed through 2012 or beyond.  (Travis Hafner is committed through 2013, as are rookies Asdrubal Cabrera, Craig Breslow and Jensen Lewis.  Grady Sizemore is committed through 2012, as are second-year players Ryan Garko, Rafael Perez, Andy Marte and Franklin Gutierrez.)

Carmona's contract is guaranteed through 2011, paying a total of $14.5 million over in addition to his $500,000 salary for 2008.  The deal further gives the Indians three successive single-season club options for 2012, 2013 and 2014.  No buyouts have been reported for the three club options, but the option-year salaries will increase if Carmona is in the top five in the Cy Young voting in two successive years.

Signing bonus:  $750,000 in 2008, in addition to $500,000 salary.
Guaranteed salaries:  $2.75 million in 2009, $4.9 million in 2010, $6.1 million in 2011.
Club options without incentives:  $7 million in 2012, $9 million in 2013, $12 million in 2014.
Club options with incentives:  $9 million in 2012, $11 million in 2013, $14 million in 2014.

Wby2e37u_mediumTo put these numbers into context, this past offseason saw Carlos Silva, a decent but thoroughly unexceptional starting pitcher, sign a four-year deal with the Mariners for an annual salary of $12 million, and of course our own Paul Byrd is making $8 million based on a deal signed two years ago, a deal that is now somewhat under-market.  In fact, Carmona's potential salary for 2012-2014 are only 3% higher than Westbrook's guaranteed salary for 2008-2010, even though salaries are likely to climb by 40% over the four years in between the two deals, and Westbrook's deal is a slightly under-market and team-friendly to start with, and Carmona's money isn't even guaranteed.

Carmona will be paid a maximum of $48 million over seven seasons, from 2008 through 2014, if all options and bonuses are exercised.  This is reportedly the richest deal ever given to a pitcher not yet eligible for arbitration, continuing the Indians' recent trend of setting new industry benchmarks for rewarding talented young players.  If Carmona continues to be a top-20 starter, he may well have earned more than the $14.5 million guarantee through arbitration by the end of 2010, let alone 2011.  In this way, "lockup contracts" such as this generally reduce a team's overall payroll commitment, or at least have a neutral effect, such that Carmona's extension should not adversely affect the Indians' ability to acquire or retain other players.

Although not seriously considered by Cy Young voters, Carmona arguably was the most effective pitcher in the AL in 2007, possibly in either league, posting a 151 ERA+ that was better than Sabathia's or Beckett's – in any season of their careers.  At the same age of 23, Sabathia had already produced almost four whole good seasons in the majors, but on the other hand, Sabathia didn't even approach Carmona's 2007 level of dominance until he was 25, and he has never matched it.  Though obscured by Sabathia's Cy Young campaign, Carmona's season was probably the best by any Indians starter of the past 35 years, dating back to Gaylord Perry's stellar 1972 Cy Young season, and seriously rivaled only by Dennis Martinez's 28 starts in 1995.

Continue reading this post »

52 comments | 0 recs

Week In Review: March 31 - April 6



This week:  3-3
Overall:  3-3
Scoring:  24-25
Old Mood:  9.1
New Mood:  6.6

  W L % GB
Chicago 4 2 .667 -
Kansas City 4 2 .667 -
Cleveland 3 3 .500 1.0
Minnesota 3 4 .429 1.5
Detroit 0 6 .000 4.0

The series:  Hosted the White Sox (win, win, loss) and visited the Athletics (loss, loss, win).

The news:  Victor injured himself on the basepaths on Opening Day for the second straight year and was replaced in the lineup by Shoppach for the rest of the week, although he has pinch-hit.  The Tigers, expected to compete in a tight division race with the Indians, opened the season with six straight losses, put new star Miguel Cabrera on the shelf, and got outscored 39-15.  And in the biggest news of the week, manager Eric Wedge did not start Gutierrez on Sunday, sparking explosive bursts of existential angst as Indians fans everywhere try to make sense of a mysterious and inexplicable universe.

Post of the week:  Now taking nominations.

Who fed it:  Sizemore and Garko got off to superfine starts, posting near-identical lines right around .341/.442/.568.  Carmona, Westbrook and Lee rattled off easy quality starts, collectively allowing just 3 ER over 21 IP.  Perez blew a late-inning lead on his second batter of the new season but looked dominant in the next two games.  Marte went 1-for-3.  Absolute Best:  Sizemore.  Relative Best:  Lee. 

Who ate it:  Sabathia tanked his first two starts – you might say he was 0-for-4 in quality start criteria – so that'll be the last time I write 800 words about whether he will or won't or should or shouldn't leave after 2008.  Okay, probably not, but that's how it feels at the moment, anyway.  Betancourt gave up seven hits in his first two innings, and he allowed more than one run in a game for the first time since September  2006.  Dellichaels posted perhaps the worst week in the history of LF platoons, batting .050, which even a .20 walk rate can't redeem.  Shoppach looked strangely uncomfortable behind the plate and allowed three passed balls.  Finally, Gutierrez and Blake, after electrifying the faithful on Opening Day, combined for exactly one base hit, a single, in their next 28 at bats.  Absolute Worst:  Sabathia.  Relative Worst:  Blake.

UPDATE:  JulioBernazard helpfully points out that Dellichaels' lone hit of the week actually came while Michaels was playing RF, not LF, and to make matters worse, Dellucci was technically a pinch-hitter when he was HBP.  Taking these key facts into account, the LF platoon's production for the week was actually .000/.238/.000, and not .050/.269/.100 as previously implied.  LGT-WIR deeply regrets this rare understatement.  [Jay]

The other guys:  We rocked Buerhle, Vazquez, MacDougal and Dotel but were baffled by Danks, Duchscherer and Eveland, three guys who collectively had 37 career starts coming into the week.  Dye, Pierzynski, Bobby Crosby and Daric Barton all had big series; Thome hit two Opening Day home runs improbably off our lefty ace but forgot how to hit after that.  Oakland had both Ryan Sweeney and Mike Sweeney in their lineup at one point, like some kind of very weird dream, Alan Embree and Keith Foulke in their bullpen.

False alarms:

  • Royals and White Sox in first place.
  • Tigers in last place.
  • Sabathia and Betancourt being terrible.
  • Shoppach fumbling.

Open questions:

  • Pronk, or just Travis?
  • New Jake or Good Old Jake?
  • Why must C.C. be such a disappointment?
  • Too soon for a Dellichaels death watch?
  • Too soon for a Tigers 2008 season death watch?
  • How healthy will Victor be this season?
  • Can Cliff Lee really bounce back to be a pretty good pitcher?
  • Can Carmona just continue being awesome without interruption?

129 comments | 3 recs

Game Three: White Sox 2, Indians 1

20080403_whitesox_indians_0_medium 

              Highest WPA:

  • Ryan Garko .190
  • Jensen Lewis .136 
  • Franklin Gutierrez .055

              Lowest WPA:

  • Jhonny Peralta -.175
  • Asdrubal Cabrera -.172
  • Grady Sizemore -.145

Jake Westbrook pitched very well...except for two pitches. Normally two runs in 7.1 innings would be more than enough for the Indians' offense, but  not today. The bats on both clubs were largely muffled, probably a product of a quick turnaround from the night before. 

The biggest at-bat of the game came after the Indians scored their only run. After Nick Swisher misplayed a Franklin Gutierrez fly ball, the Indians had runners on second and third with one out. But Asdrubal Cabrera hit the ball right at Joe Crede and Ryan Garko couldn't score. Casey Blake then followed with a fly ball to end the inning. Joe Crede led off the next inning with a home run, and the Indians went in order the next two innings to end the game.

70 comments | 0 recs


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