The series:  Hosted the Mariners (loss, win, win) and the Royals (loss, loss).

The big story:  The lineup suffered a massive power outage from every player except Sizemore, as our other 12 "hitters" combined for zero home runs, zero triples and just nine doubles over 145 at-bats — and incidentally only 11 walks over 163 plate appearances — for a .262 slugging percentage.  (The major league average last season was .422.)  Our middle infielders produced just one single in 30 at-bats.  Blake and Hafner combined for just four hits, though all were doubles, in 29 at-bats.  The other four regulars (Martinez, Garko, Gutierrez and Dellucci) went the "empty batting average" route, hitting a solid .294 but combining for just three doubles and three walks between them.

The team's curious response was to jettison Jason Michaels in favor of Ben Francisco.  Curious, because after a horrendous 3-for-33 start in the team's first 15 games, Michaels had posted an 880 OPS over the past 16 games and was not part of the team's problems in any visible way.  Curious, because Michaels has a very team-friendly contract.  Curious, because Francisco had gotten off to an equally slow start in Buffalo and had made less of a rebound.  Curious, because the two players bring a very similar mix of skills to the roster.  Curious, because most in the industry expect Francisco to be a role-player or fringe everyday player, just like Michaels.

Curious, in sum, because it's not clear the Indians have done anything at all except replace one face with another, and usually, that kind of superficial move is reserved for the manager's job.  But, you know, they say you can't start a fire without a spark.  I guess.  Whatever.

In other news:  The rest of the rotation also continued to dominate, allowing just one earned run all week before the 7th inning, capped off by Aaron Laffey, who tossed an even better Sunday gem than he did last week, making the Indians look smart for not taking an easy chance to skip his turn in the rotation.  Paul Byrd continued a totally unpublicized four-game tear in which he's given up four home runs but only six runs total, and just one walk total, averaging 6.6 IP with a 1.71 ERA.  Garko more or less broke out of a hellacious 0-for-24 slump.  Wedge seethed a lot.  Betancourt was less than inspiring, failing to record a scoreless appearance in three tries.

Meanwhile, over on the Bizarro Planet, Cliff Lee was untouchable for six more innings before finally ending his un-scored-upon streak at 28 innings — giving up a three-run bomb, reducing his outing to a mere quality start, and ballooning his ERA all the way up to 0.96, still easily the best in the majors this season.  Like two regressions passing in the night, Sabathia's start was eerily similar to Lee's, beginning with six scoreless innings and ending with three straight hits to start the 7th.  Sabathia pitched well overall but still owns the league's worst ERA at 7.51.

Post of the week:  Maybe I need to rethink this.

Who fed it:  Byrd pitched the best game of the week, allowing just four singles and one walk.  Two of those five baserunners were erased trying to steal second, and none of them ever reached second.  Byrd retired the leadoff batter in all eight innings, and only two batters reached base with less than two outs.  Laffey was nearly as good in his start, allowing just one unearned run on four singles and two walks.  Sizemore busted out a 1311 OPS, including as many extra bases (nine) as the rest of the roster combined, and as many walks (five) as the four corner positions plus DH and catcher.  Perez had an odd but successful week, at one point earning a "Hold" without facing a single batter; he faced four batters over three other games, producing three groundballs and one flyball, resulting in a single and three outs.  Jensen Lewis allowed no hits and one walk over 4.1 innings, and Tom Mastny struck out one guy and allowed another to reach on a groundball error, the only two batters he's faced in the last 19 days. Absolute Best:  Sizemore.  Relative Best:  Byrd.

Honorable mention:  in his final start as an Indian (and only start of the week), Jason Michaels hit a double and a sac fly.  The next day, he scored the 11th inning game-winner as a pinch-runner in his final game here.  Not as dramatic as a farewell home run, but a fitting send-off for a role player who always seemed to be working his ass off out there.

Who ate it:  It's been feast-or-famine almost every week for Peralta, and this week, it was an all-out 0-for-13 famine.  Cabrera was nearly as bad at 1-for-16.  Blake's strikeouts (six) were double his times on base (three); he's played every inning of the last nine games, producing a line of .100/.206/.167.  Betancourt, filling in capably for Borowski, yielded two home runs and four singles while retiring only five batters.  Hafner hit two doubles in one game but went 0-for-10 in three others; he's struck out 14 times in his last 56 trips to the plate, hitting just four singles and four doubles and drawing only five walks for a line of .167/.250/.250.  Breslow totally crapped the bed in his only appearance in the last 19 days.  Absolute Worst:  Peralta.  Relative Worst:  Betancourt.

The other guys:    The Twins surged while the White Sox struggled and the Tigers scuffled.  The division more than ever looks like it will go to any team that can manage anything close to 90 wins, as the Tigers' pitching and the Indians' hitting look no more likely to come together than the White Sox or Twins going on a big flukey run.

False alarms:

• Not one single hitter having a good year by his own standards.
  
• Betancourt, terrible.
• Roger Clemens, apologizing for something.
• Not one formidable opponent in the AL Central.

Open questions:

• Can the starters walk on water long enough for the lineup to regroup and win a few games?
  
• Is there something fundamentally wrong with the organizational approach to hitting, and how long can Derek Shelton keep his job?
  
• When Cliff Lee returns to reality, what will that look like?
  
• Which teams are really in the AL Central race, anyway?
• Just how bad will the game have to be going before we see Mastny or Breslow again, and how bad will they be after a 15-day layoff?
• Too soon to write Laffey's name into our starting rotation plans, 2009-2013?
  
• Can Betancourt regain anything remotely resembling his 2007 dominance for any amount of time, or will he scuffle back-and-forth all season as he did in 2006?
• Is Jensen Lewis back on track, sort of?
• How many relievers would have to be failing completely for Adam Miller to get the call to the big-league bullpen?  Do we even want to see him there?
• Could Sowers be on the block soon?
• Could the Indians really consider Marte more or less expendable and Blake more or less untouchable?
• Really?

The series:  Visited the Royals (win, win, win) and hosted the Yankees (win, win, loss, loss).

The big story:  There were several, and perhaps the biggest was simply that we had a strong week, winning five of seven to move into second place.   But the most significant development for the 2008 season going forward was C.C. Sabathia's total U-turn from trainwreck to dominant starter.  Sabathia gave up just one run over 14 innings, striking out 11 hapless Royals in the first game and tossing an 8-inning gem in which only five Yankees reached base in the second.  This pair of consecutive starts was one of the best of Sabathia's career, surpassed in 2007 only by his back-to-back shutouts in June.  At the same time, his first four starts were so horrendous (13.50 ERA) that even after the extreme two-start bounce-back, his ERA is still the worst in the majors at 7.88 – even worse than Barry Zito's.  Sabathia's excellence ended up being of no real immediate consequence, as the Indians turned the first one into a 15-1 rout, then handed Sabathia a tough 1-0 loss in the second.

In other news:  Jake Westbrook unexpectedly went on the Disabled List with a lower-back muscle strain.  Initially expected to miss only a few starts, he's now expected to be out for a full month after his symptoms persisted for a full week.  His injury, combined with a rain-delay-induced double-header, resulted in a flurry of call-ups and send-downs as the Indians played with an extra outfielder for a few days (Ben Francisco), swapped out for a spot starter (Jeremy Sowers) on Saturday, swapped out for another extra outfielder (Brad Snyder) on Sunday, and finally on Monday swapped out for Aaron Laffey, who will join the rotation at least for the following week.  Both starters made fine 2008 debuts against the Yankees, with Laffey looking significantly stronger than Sowers even though the box scores will claim the opposite.

Lee deepened his improbable run as the game's most effective pitcher with a complete game shutout, as the national media joined Indians fans in collectively dropping their jaws.  The lineup blew up for 24 runs in the first two games but then fizzled with just 14 runs in the next five, a trend led by Casey Blake, who posted a 2125 OPS in two games against the Royals but just a 350 OPS starting all four games against the Yankees.  The post-Borowski bullpen started to come together as Kobayashi asserted himself with a few strong setup performances while Betancourt breezed through his first two Save opportunities, making the closer's job look suspiciously un-different from his old setup-man gig.

Adam Miller finally made his official 2008 debut in Buffalo, following a few weeks rehabbing a blister and a few weeks in extended spring training.  Miller pitched nine scoreless innings in two starts while continuing to build up his pitch count, and his velocity was intact even if his peripherals weren't.  Miller's return, coupled with Brian Slocum's solid start, suggests that the Indians remain an absurd eight-deep in big-league-ready starting pitchers, even after putting Westbrook on the DL and shipping Sean Smith off to Colorado.  At the same time, David Huff, 39th overall draft pick in 2006, overcame a rocky first two starts to pitch his third straight gem for the Akron Aeros, allowing just one run (on a solo shot) and 13 baserunners against 19 strikeouts over the three games, and he picked off a couple guys, too.  If Huff continues to emerge, that may further tempt the Indians to move Miller into the big-league bullpen.

Post of the week:  Now taking nominations.

Who fed it: Sabathia dominated in two starts while Lee was near-spotless in his one.  Julio excelled in two low-leverage outings, while Kobayashi and Betancourt settled into their new roles; the three relievers faced 32 batters and got 29 outs, including two erased on double-plays, and allowed no one past first base.  Blake had the best all-around numbers of any hitter on the week but was abysmal against the Yankees.  Victor batted .375, achieving a 902 OPS on the week with (once again) no home runs.  Dellucci and Peralta each combined a solid average with a pair of home runs.  Seemingly competing for at bats, Michaels and Gutierrez both accounted for a major chunk of our otherwise anemic offense against the Yankees, the former batting .400 while the latter slugged .600, and they looked damned good in the field, too.  Special mention must be given to Aaron Laffey, who no-hit the Yankees for five innings and, through sheer horrendous luck alone, gave up four runs in the 6th when he deserved to give up, at most, one. Absolute Best:  Sabathia.  Relative Best:  Lee.

Who ate it:  It's hard to say what the worst part of Ryan Garko's week was, the .042 average, the .115 OBP or the .083 slugging.  I'm going with the .042 average, because he was just one walk short of decent walk rate, and hey, his isolated power is almost 2.0!  Unfortunately, even those minimal contributions were mostly confined to last Tuesday's game, and Garko's line for the last five games was .000/.048/.000.  Aside from Garko, the rest of the Indians put up a more-than-respectable .302/.360/.451 line for the week.  Hafner continued his harrowing march to the bottom, with week-by-week OPS totals of 824, 761, 592 and (this week) 512 — or, if you prefer, he has a 559 OPS over his last 17 games.  Absolute Worst:  Garko.  Relative Worst:  Garko.  Twenty Other Kinds Of Worst:  Garko.  And Yet The Guy Who Really Makes Me Suicidal Is Still:  Hafner.

The other guys:  We made Wang look like Bob Gibson.  The rest of it, pretty fuzzy, maybe I'll fill it in later, does anybody really care about this section?

False alarms:

• Cliff Lee, greatest pitcher in the universe.
  
• Chien-Ming Wang, second greatest.
• C.C. Sabathia, third greatest (he's actually about tenth).
• Ben Francisco in a Cleveland uniform.
  
• Ryan Garko, worst hitter ever.
• Jhonny Peralta on web gems last night.
• J-Mike, serviceable big-league hitter.

Open questions:

• How long will Jake be out, and once he returns, will he be totally awesome, or merely awesome?
• How long can Chicago stay at the top of the standings?
  
• Since any blogger writing in his/her parents' basement in his/her underwear can notice when a reliever's velocity is down 3-5 mph, and might actually write about it without the team's permission, what exactly do we need newspaper columnists for?
• Too soon to start panicking about losing Cliff Lee after 2010?
• When the hell is Slider's birthday, anyway?
  
• Can Kobayashi confuse hitters with his deathballs all season like Okajima did?
• Can Julio be useful?
• How long will we keep marching Stomp Lewis out there with reduced velocity?
• Just how bad will the game have to be going before we see Mastny or Breslow again, and how bad will they be after a 15-day layoff?
• Has anyone noticed that Eddie Mujica is in his last option year?  Does anyone care?
• How much better can Laffey be than he was last year?  Is his ceiling is higher than we think?
• Can Steel Rafi get settled and find some semblance of his 2007 consistency?
• How many relievers would have to be failing completely for Adam Miller to get the call to the big-league bullpen?  Do we even want to see him there?
• Could Sowers be on the block soon?
• Is it really possible for Marte to spend 120 more days on the roster than Ben Francisco this season, and yet still get fewer at bats?
  
• Is Wedge basically just testing Marte to see how long it takes him to get an obviously bad attitude, at which point they ship him out?
• Will Shapiro fall for this kind of nonsense again?

The series:  Hosted the Red Sox (loss, loss) and Tigers (loss, win) and visited the Twins (win, loss, loss).

The big story:  We got six quality starts out of seven, but our offense got exactly one win out of those six quality starts.  These weren't borderline quality starts, either – in each of the six, the starter either made it into the 7th inning or gave up less than 2 runs, and in three out of six, he did both.  Five regulars put up averages under .170 while only one hit better than .250 – but they maddeningly continued to draw walks, drawing the fifth-most this week in the AL despite apparently not being able to hit.  The Indians were only outscored by five runs on the week but managed to distribute their runs badly, winning two games by 14 runs and losing five games by 19 runs.  The net result is that the Indians missed an opportunity to get a little distance in the standings from the Tigers, joining them in the cellar instead, and fans are forced to start wondering just how inevitable a crash is for first-place Chicago.

In other news:  Sabathia and Borowski, nominally our #1 starter and reliever respectively, further bombed out.  Already the worst starter in baseball entering the week, Sabathia gave up his second nine-spot in a week's time, one of just two pitchers to give up more than six runs in a game, twice, in 2008 – and his co-honoree Tom Gorzellany has an ERA more than four runs lower.  Borowski, meanwhile, failed in such spectacular and obvious fashion – struggling to throw a  fastball over 80 mph – that many felt relieved to see such his agonizing career as Indians closer end swiftly (at least for the moment) by a trip to the DL for "noodle-like symptoms."  It turned out that Borowski's giddyup deficit was well known to the staff, which raised questions as to why he was allowed to attempt to close four games.  Sabathia and Borowski's struggles led directly to five of our 12 losses this season, and we survived Sabathia's Opening Day blowout and nearly overcame another on April 11.  So it's not wishful thinking to believe that even with all the team's other problems, we'd probably be 11-8 right now had these two pitchers not failed so profoundly.

Lee continued his improbable run as the game's most effective pitcher, leading the majors in RA, ERA and FIP.   Byrd made a more or less unheralded return to form this week with two very fine starts, while Carmona quieted fears following last week's  nine-walk adventure.  Hafner hit a game-winning home run but otherwise struggled to keep his OPS over 700, as Indians fans start to wonder if we haven't even seen him hit rock-bottom yet.   Perez bounced back from a shellacking the previous weekend to pitch effectively in four games, but he was finally touched for a run on his 11th batter of the game yesterday, his first game facing more than 9 batters since moving out of long relief last June.  Despite being tagged with a loss yesterday, he actually made great strides toward re-asserting himself as an 8th-inning ace.

Post of the week:  Now taking nominations.

Who fed it:  Byrd pitched far better than your typical #5 starter, giving up just one run over 13 IP in two starts.  Lee put up eight innings of two-hit, shutout ball and fans looked on in disbelief.  Victor surged back with a 12-for-27 week, but his searing .444 average was a little empty, accompanied by just one walk and one extra-base hit, a double.  Carroll continued to perform well in a supporting role, supplementing his .200 average with a beefy .500 secondary average and his usual fine defensive play.  Perez was unlucky on base hits but overall very effective over four games and 4.2 IP, allowing just one walk and no extra-base hits to go with 6 K's – 11 groundballs, 3 flyballs and just one line drive.  Absolute Best:  Lee.  Relative Best:  Byrd. 

Who ate it:  Sabathia and Borowski were complete disasters – although in fairness, Sabathia's ERA for the week (20.25) was twice as good as Borowski's (40.50) .  While many hitters were terrible, nothing was more awful than Peralta's slugging average of .136, or more disappointing than Sizemore's overall line of .160/.300/.240, or more troubling than Hafner's overall line of .167/.259/.333.  Stomp Lewis had two miserable outings out of two, lucky to give up only two runs to Boston after allowing two doubles and two walks in the two-run loss, and allowing two walks before getting just one out a few nights later.  Absolute Worst:  Peralta.  Relative Worst:  Borowski.

The other guys:  Indians pitchers got mugged pretty good by Manny, Lugo and Pedroia for the Red Sox, as well as Renteria, Cabrera and Inge for the Tigers, but nobody inflicted as much damage as Youkilis, who collected a walk, a single, three doubles and a home run in just two games, good for a 2075 OPS.   Ortiz produced an empty 3-for-10, 600 OPS, and needed some luck even to do that well.  Pudge went 0-for-6, stranding ten, in a game where his teammates were teeing off on Indians pitchers to the tune of 11 runs.  Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez, both 22-year-olds acquired in the offseason, combined for just one single and one walk in 23 AB.  On the other side, the Indians dispatched Verlander, Lester and Liriano handily only to get manhandled by the utterly unheralded Armanda Galarraga and Nick Blackburn, plus the somewhat heralded Scott Baker.  The Indians put up a five-spot on Detroit's Zach Miner to seal their one strong offensive game, but against Boston, Papelbon and Okajima each sealed a two-run victory with a two-strikeout perfect final frame.

False alarms:

• Paul Byrd as an excellent starter.
  
• Sabathia being the worst pitcher in the game.
• Borowski being sent in to close a game.
  
• Perez looking rough.
  

Open questions:

• Can we turn it around quickly enough that we don't dig a 2006-sized hole for ourselves in the standings?
  
• Since any blogger writing in his/her parents' basement in his/her underwear can speculate on whether C.C.'s contract situation is distracting him, what exactly do we need newspaper columnists for?
• Too soon to start the Cy watch for Cliff Lee?
• How long can Byrd keep it together?
• How long can Sabathia keep it apart?
• What kind of production will the team consider acceptable from AbaCab? 
  
• Why are the Indians so strangely unwilling to play Blake in LF or RF, which would allow them to give Marte playing time in lieu of Micheals and sometimes Gutierrez?
• Is there anything more to the lack of playing time for Marte, other than his just being low-man on the totem pole to start the season?
  
• How much playing time will Carroll siphon from Peralta and especially AbaCab, and will his performance hold up given more exposure?
  
• Will Borowski ever return to the active roster, and if so, in what role?
• Kobayashi, Breslow, Julio – seriously, can these guys pitch?
  

via www.fangraphs.com

Different night, same late-inning collapse, but with a bit less vitriol. Unfortunately, a loss is still a loss.

Again, the Indians' starter did much better than expected. Again, the Indians' offense had opportunities to break the game open but failed, and again a Tribe reliever committed the cardinal sin of relieverdom, the 9th inning home run.

The seeds for tonight's loss were sown yesterday. For after Rafael Betancourt threw 1.2 innings on Monday, he wasn't going to be available tonight. Which normally wouldn't be that big a deal, but after Joe Borowski was shunted to the Disabled List, the Indians were left with a thin back end of the bullpen. And because Paul Byrd rarely goes deep into games even when pitching well, Eric Wedge was going to have to steal an inning or two with guys not inducted into the Circle of Trust.

Fortunately, Paul Byrd pitched as good a game as he's capable of, allowing 6 base runners in 6 innings. The obvious change from his first couple outings was the command of his pitches. Byrd always has a definite plan to get hitters out, but those plans require intricate placement of pitches. Tonight he stayed on the corners or just off, and fooled Boston's lineup for six innings.

Meanwhile, the offense wasn't helping much, though they didn't lack for opportunities. They left a runner on third in the second, runners on the corners in the third, and runners on first and second in the fourth. They finally got that big hit in the fifth, when Victor Martinez drove home two runs, the culmination of an excellent at-bat. But true to form, Jhonny Peralta ended the inning by grounding into a double play.

So when Paul Byrd left the game, it was just a 2-1 contest, meaning that the Indians' depleted bullpen would have to hold Boston scoreless for the next three innings. Wedge tried to sneak in Jorge Julio in the seventh, as the Red Sox had up the bottom half of their order, but Julio couldn't hit the strike zone, and was removed after walking the first two hitters he faced. Rafael Perez limited the damage, but again, this left a gap in the relief coverage for the rest of the game. Jason Varitek was the sixth batter Jensen Lewis faced.

The series:  Hosted the White Sox (win, win, loss) and visited the Athletics (loss, loss, win).

The news:  Victor injured himself on the basepaths on Opening Day for the second straight year and was replaced in the lineup by Shoppach for the rest of the week, although he has pinch-hit.  The Tigers, expected to compete in a tight division race with the Indians, opened the season with six straight losses, put new star Miguel Cabrera on the shelf, and got outscored 39-15.  And in the biggest news of the week, manager Eric Wedge did not start Gutierrez on Sunday, sparking explosive bursts of existential angst as Indians fans everywhere try to make sense of a mysterious and inexplicable universe.

Post of the week:  Now taking nominations.

Who fed it:  Sizemore and Garko got off to superfine starts, posting near-identical lines right around .341/.442/.568.  Carmona, Westbrook and Lee rattled off easy quality starts, collectively allowing just 3 ER over 21 IP.  Perez blew a late-inning lead on his second batter of the new season but looked dominant in the next two games.  Marte went 1-for-3.  Absolute Best:  Sizemore.  Relative Best:  Lee. 

Who ate it:  Sabathia tanked his first two starts – you might say he was 0-for-4 in quality start criteria – so that'll be the last time I write 800 words about whether he will or won't or should or shouldn't leave after 2008.  Okay, probably not, but that's how it feels at the moment, anyway.  Betancourt gave up seven hits in his first two innings, and he allowed more than one run in a game for the first time since September  2006.  Dellichaels posted perhaps the worst week in the history of LF platoons, batting .050, which even a .20 walk rate can't redeem.  Shoppach looked strangely uncomfortable behind the plate and allowed three passed balls.  Finally, Gutierrez and Blake, after electrifying the faithful on Opening Day, combined for exactly one base hit, a single, in their next 28 at bats.  Absolute Worst:  Sabathia.  Relative Worst:  Blake.

UPDATE:  JulioBernazard helpfully points out that Dellichaels' lone hit of the week actually came while Michaels was playing RF, not LF, and to make matters worse, Dellucci was technically a pinch-hitter when he was HBP.  Taking these key facts into account, the LF platoon's production for the week was actually .000/.238/.000, and not .050/.269/.100 as previously implied.  LGT-WIR deeply regrets this rare understatement.  [Jay]

The other guys:  We rocked Buerhle, Vazquez, MacDougal and Dotel but were baffled by Danks, Duchscherer and Eveland, three guys who collectively had 37 career starts coming into the week.  Dye, Pierzynski, Bobby Crosby and Daric Barton all had big series; Thome hit two Opening Day home runs improbably off our lefty ace but forgot how to hit after that.  Oakland had both Ryan Sweeney and Mike Sweeney in their lineup at one point, like some kind of very weird dream, Alan Embree and Keith Foulke in their bullpen.

False alarms:

• Royals and White Sox in first place.
• Tigers in last place.
• Sabathia and Betancourt being terrible.
• Shoppach fumbling.

Open questions:

• Pronk, or just Travis?
• New Jake or Good Old Jake?
• Why must C.C. be such a disappointment?
• Too soon for a Dellichaels death watch?
• Too soon for a Tigers 2008 season death watch?
• How healthy will Victor be this season?
• Can Cliff Lee really bounce back to be a pretty good pitcher?
• Can Carmona just continue being awesome without interruption?

Yes, the glorious day has finally arrived.  After a 20-month hiatus, I'm finally excavating and updating my ramshackle prospect ranking system, formerly known as the Exciting Prospects Standard and now redubbed with the more apt (but no more humble) moniker, Prospects That Matter.  Actually, it's not really a ranking system, it's actually a separating-the-men-from-the-boys system; the specific rankings are secondary, and frankly, I don't give them a great deal of thought.  It is perhaps best described as a way of organizing the way we look at our young talent.

Why the new name?  Well, my friends, I'm older now, and wiser, or perhaps more tolerant, or perhaps just lazier.  If you really find Chris Gimenez exciting, I'm not going to argue with you about it.  If, on the other hand, you want to tell me that Chris Gimenez should actually matter to an Indians fan, well, then, you might just have a fight on your hands.  The aim of the system remains the same, and that is, for a diehard Indians fan who doesn't follow the minors closely, to identify those prospects that are really worth knowing about -- and not to bother that fan with guys who are merely over-hyped or over-drafted.

PTM attempts to identify:  Which guys are the most likely to contribute to the Indians winning a pennant?  Which guys are going to contribute the most, and which guys are going to contribute the soonest?  To that end, the PTM player must meet one of these criteria:

• In Triple-A: succeeding at age 25, solid at 24, or younger.
• In Double-A: succeeding at age 23, solid at 22, or younger.
• In High-A: succeeding at age 21, solid at 20, or younger.
  
• In Low-A: succeeding at age 19, solid at 18, or younger.
• In short-season leagues: solid at age 17 or younger.

Triple-A players making this list are major-league-ready or nearly so and basically just waiting for an opportunity, while the High-A players on the list generally will be fairly high ceiling, and their success at such a young age makes them fairly likely to be a good major leaguer.  The Double-A players are a nice mix of readiness and likely success.  "Successful" generally means that he performed well enough to be promoted, and I try to take a nuanced view of a player's stats.  I start with basic productivity but keep a careful eye on peripherals, and particularly on K rates for pitchers.

Statements from team officials may also be considered, but ultimately the choice to promote or not to promote a player is more credible than any verbal statement.  Scouting reports are taken into account, but mostly with an eye toward projecting a player's defensive skills and likely role in the majors, which affects how good his bat will have to be in order to make it – in other words, in terms of pure hitting skills, the bar is lower for a standout defender like Brad Snyder than it is for a merely solid guy like Ben Francisco.  Injuries are always considered a negative factor, and in the PTM context, I never consider injuries a mitigating factor for a mediocre performance.

In 2006, PTM stubbornly championed guys like Carmona, AstroCab and Lofgren before they were fashionable, Adam Miller even when he was injured, solid successes like Garko and frustrating cases like Ferd and Marte – the system is fundamentally better at predicting who will earn a shot in the majors than who will succeed there, though it may be no worse than other systems in that regard.  Recent draft picks without track record and over-21 types dominating in the low minors were excluded without mercy, a tendency of PTM that irritated some fans in 2006 and will continue to irritate in 2008.  PTM preaches patience, not only at the plate but in our prospect rankings.  There are some guys I don't like leaving certain guys off the list any more than you do, but if the performance is there, those guys will jump on the list soon enough.

A note about the ages listed – it's their "seasonal age" for 2007, not 2008, listed that way because it's based on that age that we're evaluating their achievements so far.  I also pay little mind to "official" rules as to what makes a prospect.  If a player is 25 or younger and not a fully established major leaguer, he's a prospect in every way that actually matters to a team, or to a fan.

Prospects That Really, Really Matter — players who've met PTM criteria at an excessively young age.

1. Asdrubal Cabrera – 21, SS-2B, thrived in Double-A and was solid in the majors.  As if you didn't know.
2. Aaron Laffey – 22, RHP, not a lot of strikeouts but also not a lot of walks, performed  well and "equivalently" from Akron to Cleveland.
   
3. Adam Miller – 22, RHP, struggled with injuries but way ahead of the curve in Triple-A.  Still very much a potential ace.
   
4. Jensen Lewis – 23, RHP, unusual to rank a reliever this high, but Lewis truly dominated in Akron, and then Buffalo, and then Cleveland, and then against the Yankees in the playoffs, with an ERA under 2.00 and K rate over 10.  Frankly, this ranking might not be high enough — no other Indians prospect performed at this high of a level in 2007.
   
5. Andy Marte – 23, 3B, and you don't have to like it.  For one thing, once a guy has made the list, he only graduates by getting too old or succeeding in the majors.  Try to imagine 2007 was Marte's first season in Triple-A — 766 OPS, 23-year-old third baseman, it's actually pretty good.  But of course, his actual first season in Triple-A was at age 21.  His three-year total, ages 21-22-23, are .268/.337/.473.
6. Chuck Lofgren – 21, LHP, those who were disapointed by his season in Akron were forgetting how young he is to be an above-average pitcher at this level.  Lofgren will spend his age-22 season in Double-A, and he's a lefty with better stuff than Laffey or Sowers.

Prospects That Really Matter — those who beat the PTM criteria with room to spare.

7. Jeremy Sowers – 24, LHP, and like Marte, he would make the list based only on his age and 2007 numbers alone, but the high ranking is for his dazzling 2006 performance at age 23.
   
8. Sean Smith – 23, RHP, not turning any heads but had a very solid season in Triple-A.
   
9. Shin-Soo Choo – 24, OF, obviously slowed by injuries, but as with Sowers, we'd do well not to forget what he did at age 23.
   
10. Eddie Mujica — 23, RHP, also slowed by injuries, and also more impressive in 2006 than in 2007, but check out the great K/BB rates.  Still a potential impact reliever if he's healthy.
    

Prospects That Matter — others who've cleared the bar.

11. Nick "Weglarz!" Weglarz – 19, OF, bounced back from injury to make a stellar full-season debut.
    
12. Ben Francisco – 25, OF, improved on his age-24 numbers and made a solid debut in the majors.
    
13. Jordan Brown – 23, 1B, a knee injury reportedly sapped his power, but he still hit .333, and it will be interesting to see how his power develops this season.
14. Jeanmar Gomez – 18, RHP, suffocated Dominican Summer League hitters at 16 (2005) and dominated the Gulf Coast League at 17 (2006), although a bit reminiscent of Carmona, you have to wonder how a guy manages a 2.50 ERA with just 5.92 K/9.  His full-season debut was merely decent, and he's going to have to show more strikeouts and fewer home runs as he progresses, but he improved in both areas as the season progressed.  He'll be starting his age-19 season at High-A, something nobody else on this list has done or will do – youth and progress, that's what we're looking for here.  Somebody really needs to do a scouting report on this guy.
15. Jeff Stevens – 23, RHP, eye-popping K rates in Double-A and apparently not content to be a footnote, he may well hit the  Cleveland bullpen in 2008.
    
16. Carlos Rivero – 19, SS, marginal overall numbers, but a plus defender with a solid walk rate, and a decent amount of pop for a teenage middle infielder.
    
17. John Drennen – 20, CF, not unlike Lofgren, his struggles caused some to:: forget that he was one of the youngest players in his league.
18. Hector Rondon – 19, RHP, pitched better than Gomez at Lake County but is a year older, will also start the season in the Kinston rotation.
    

A few themes emerge on this year's list.  For one thing, it's huge, which either means I'm getting more lenient, or the criteria are letting in certain types of players too easily, or  that the Indians are justified in their strong confidence about the depth of their farm system, defying most "organizational talent" rankings.  A small core of players has been promoted to the advanced-A Kinston club to start the year at age 19 or 20, and it's a happy mix of two pitchers, one skill position player and one power-hitting Canadian.  This complements well the small core of college draftees who will converge on Akron in 2008 (with a good shot to make next year's list).

The other theme is guys succeeding in Triple-A at very young ages – not just at 25 but at 22 – but then possibly being stuck there, possibly because of a limited ceiling, possibly because that last jump to majors is the hardest.  Spots 5-10 are fairly dominated by a sense of, "Don't give up on me, I'm still young, I still matter!"  They all reached Buffalo by 22, and not one of them is 25 yet.

It may be that a future refinement of PTM should raise the bar in some way for Triple-A pitchers in particular, but then again, maybe the bar is just fine.  Part of the premise of the system is that a guy who reaches Triple-A at 22 may have the same stats as a low-ceiling 25-year-old, but he's got three whole seasons to figure out how to make that last jump.  Some research suggests that unlike a hitter's raw tools, a pitcher's stuff doesn't really improve after age 23, but it takes pretty good stuff just to get this far, and there's more to pitching than just stuff.  Something to ponder going forward.

More lists after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

First thing is, we're not going to lose, and there will be a companion article to this one explaining why we're not going to lose.  But let's face the facts here, baseball is crazy, and the most likely scenario is that we face a tight race with the Tigers.  We might lose.  And if we lose, it will probably be for some combination of these reasons.

1. Pure talent.  The Indians have more healthy key players, more talented depth players, and fewer players who stand to regress back from having had career seasons in 2007.  But on the whole, the Tigers have more talented key players, and if guys like Sheffield and Guillen can stay healthy, then their lack of decent depth players won't make much difference.
   
   PECOTA projects the Tigers to score only 15 more runs than the Indians, but that's a weighted-mean projection that significantly factors in the chance of losing key players to injury.  If the Tigers generally stay healthy, the offensive difference likely will be far greater.
   
   The Indians meanwhile are at significant risk for below-average production at three out of four corner positions, and several of our key players are over 30 (Dellucci, Michaels, Hafner, Borowski, Byrd, Kobayashi) and, as a group, not likely to get more healthy or more productive than they were in 2007.
   
   And despite a reputation for starter depth, not one of the four guys slated to man the last two rotation spots (Byrd, Lee, Laffey and Sowers) is a solid bet to post a league-average ERA this season.
   
   
2. Sketchy defense.  Two of our best three starters are extreme groundballers, and both are righthanded.  That means a significant part of our fate will rest in the disposition of groundballs headed toward the left side of the infield, where we will be starting two guys who could fall off a cliff defensively at any time.  Both Peralta and Blake have had moments in their careers where their defense was actually praiseworthy, but they've also both been atrocious over an entire season at least once.
   
   Moving Asdrubal to shortstop probably won't be a serious option, as that would replace Peralta's bat in the lineup with Carroll's or Barfield's.  As for playing Marte at third, even if we take the charitable view that all he needs is a good month or so to settle in as a big-leaguer, exactly how many balls get booted while he's doing that?
   
   
3. Troubled youth.  Much of our 2007 success was due to unexpected performances from rookies, but we don't really know how Asdrubal or Gutierrez will look after more exposure to major league pitching.  It would not be surprising if both of them struggled, and of course Marte has never really performed well in the majors.  Add in Perez and Lewis -- and arguably Carmona -- and you're looking at a significant chunk of the roster in the unpredictably youthful column.
   
   Moreover, we're unlikely to get big contributions from four rookies again in 2008, or in any season, or even from two rookies.
   
   
4. Wacky bullpens.  It just wouldn't be surprising if four or five of our relievers just could not get their acts together this season -- these things happen, bullpens are just like that.  Borowski, Lewis, Kobayashi, Breslow, Julio -- all those guys could tank, and Betancourt has been known to hit the DL now and again.
   
   Even leaving out the pessimism, we simply can't expect Betancourt to have the most impact of any reliever in the game again, and we can't expect to get major contributions from two guys who aren't even on the Opening Day roster, as we got last year.  The Indians 2007 success overall was not particularly flukey, but it was in this area.
   
   
5. Tired arms.  This one has been beat to death already, but that doesn't mean it isn't a significant concern.  Carmona at 24 is out of the notorious "injury nexus," and people tend to ignore the fact that he threw 174  innings at age 21 with no ill effect, so throwing 215 at age 23 is not necessarily that big of a deal.
   
   Sabathia, however, threw 256 innings, which is a lot for any pitcher of any age or experience, and often threw under more stress than Carmona faced.  Thta's 58 more innings than he'd thrown in any season except 2002, and even that year, he only threw 210.  Let's not forget, Sabathia loses three starts or so to injury in most seasons anyway, so how can he be likely to stay healthy following a 30% jump in workload?  He can't be.
   
   
6. Lack of quality depth.  I'm serious.  On our 40-man roster, we've got nine warm bodies for four corner spots -- Garko, Gutierrez, Dellucci, Michaels, Blake, Marte, Choo, Francisco, Aubrey and Snyder -- but only one of them (Garko of course) is a really solid bet to post above-average production in 2008.
   
   In the bullpen, we started 2007 with at least four rookies waiting in Buffalo -- Perez, Mujica, Lara and Slocum -- young, talented, live-armed dudes who'd already gotten their feet wet in 2006.  We don't have the same caliber of reinforcements to start 2008.  It's basically Elarton, Mastny and a diminished Mujica.
   
   
7. That guy, still not helping.  Adam Miller sure could help in a number of these areas, and yet he sure can't be counted on to help in any of them.
   
   
8. Bad timing.  Just as anything can happen in a short series, two evenly matched teams can produce just about any result in a 19-game season series.  The Indians could outplay the Tigers by 6 games against all other teams and outscore them head-to-head with a few blowouts mixed in, but if they lose the season series 13-6, it won't matter.  At the same time, while the schedule is very closely balanced for any two teams in the same division, facing a certain team in May isn't always the same as facing them in August.
   
   
9. Lack of pie.  Yeah, you know what I'm talking about.  Gritty, clutchy, leadership pie -- the kind of pie Trot Nixon knew how to make.  Trot's gone, and we don't know if Dellucci or anyone else can pick up the slack.
   
   
10. Lack of Vizquel, Thome, Millwood, Colavito.  No, not really.  Geez, man, get a life.  Maybe you didn't hear, last year, we won 96 games without those guys, and all of their teams sucked.  Yes, even Colavito's.
    

So that's the bad news.  Of course it's always possible that the Indians will find some other, more bizarre or unpredictable way to tank their season, something nobody could have or would have ever predicted.  Just ask Travis Hafner.

UPDATE:  I've posted some general comments about Breslow from our sister Red Sox site in this FanPost, worth a quick read. [Jay]

One of the Nicks -- I believe it was Iron Nick, not Steel Nick -- helpfully posted a link to this Comment I made a couple weeks ago.  Many took that post as sort of a blanket defense or thumbs-up for Fultz, and I guess it's kind of the former but not really the latter.  Some may not have taken full notice of this paragraph:

I don't see this as an awesome prediction (it isn't even follwed by a "Boo Thome"), it's just kind of stating the obvious.

My guess is that a lot of the negativity surrounding Fultz is just based on the fact that he's never impressed anyone and was a free agent signing.  Most folks here are savvy enough not to scream at Shapiro every time he makes a minor league signing, understanding that these signings are insignificant when they don't pan out, and nicely significant when they do.  We know that Shapiro doesn't envision the likes of Tyner and Elarton as centerpieces of a championship club.

But we still perhaps pin too much importance on our minor major-league free agents -- witness the vitriol sometimes directed at the likes of Hollandsworth, Rouse, Michaels, Carroll and Aaron Fultz.  These guys are just bit players, "role players" in the parlance of the game, and it just happens that role player money has gone slightly north of $2 million.  It's crazy, but it doesn't change the fact that they're role players.

What I'm getting at is that while the difference between a major league deal and a minor league deal is significant, it isn't enormous.  Julio didn't get Fultz's deal, and Fultz didn't get Borowksi's -- and none of them thankfully got Baez's deal -- but the performance differences aren't great -- obviously.  The minor league deal guys are a few good weeks away from the majors, and even Borowski is just a couple of bad months from being DFA'ed.  And every one of these guys has been more effective than Baez, who got $19 million.  (This is of course the very reason to go bargain-hunting for relievers -- the trashbin cumulatively has far more raw effectiveness left in it than the mid-tier free agent market for relievers -- but I digress.)

So that's the first broad point.  The second broad point is that we never really get a non-ridiculous sample size when it comes to relievers.  My comments earlier in the month essentially defended Fultz, but only to say, based on the numbers, there's little if any reason to hate the guy.  But how much do the numbers tell us about a sporadically used reliever?  Very little.  With samples this tiny -- including all Spring Training numbers -- you have to rely on the scouts being on the ball with their evaluations, because the numbers just can't tell you anything with even a small amount of confidence.

Fultz's option was picked up, which meant only that based on what the Indians saw out of him last season, they felt he was worth giving another very-minor major-league deal for 2008 -- nothing less, nothing more.  After the past three weeks, however, they felt they could dump him and not regret it -- but as always, the decision isn't based just on the player's performance alone, it's based on all the available options.  Part of the utility of picking up Fultz's option is, simply, we don't know that a better option will present itself, either on the free agent market, or on the waiver wires, or in a trade, or from our own minor league system, i.e., some other lefty showing up looking like the second coming of Rafael Perez.  Fultz looked terrible -- not just in the numbers, but in the eyes of the team's evaluators -- and also! a better option presented itself in Breslow.

Okay, then, Fultz is gone.  And this one part of the prediction I will take credit for:  They didn't hesitate to do it.  (And let's pause for a moment of silent appreciation that our club is run by grownups.)  (Thank you.)

As for comparing the two, I would speculate that even beyond his Spring struggles, the Indians really were not thrilled with Fultz in the specific role of LOOGY anyway.  The Indians philosophically seem more oriented toward finding all-around good relievers rather than one-out relievers, but that doesn't mean they don't want a reliever who can dispatch lefties reliably.  Given the composition of the rest of the bullpen, and specifically the desire to continue using Perez for more general late-inning work, they really need a guy with LOOGY potential moreso than just another decent lefty.

And I say this not just because of Fultz's track record but because of Breslow's.  In his brief major league career, Breslow has faced 41 lefties and struck out 11 of them.  In Triple-A Pawtucket, he racked up 14.37 K/9 against lefties in 2007, holding them to a 784 OPS despite a horrendously unlucky .455 BABIP.  A year earlier, he had 11.40 K/9 against lefties.  The two-year totals are 52 K, 15 BB, 4 HBP, and only 1 HR in about 165 PA.  Also worth noting, he apparently doesn't do it with groundballs, which given our inconsistent infield is probably a good thing.

Of course Breslow is out of options, which is irritating, but he's also cheap -- as in, cheap for the foreseeable future.  If we can put this guy back together, we've got him clear through 2013, ages 27-33, and he won't even hit arbitration until 2011.  And remember, this is a guy with some decent career minor league numbers on his résumé -- 9.84 K/9, 0.69 HR/9.  I think based on contract status alone, you probably have to take Breslow over Fultz, and eating the $1.5 million is just a small blip in that decision.

So that's my take.  They're ditching Fultz because they can, and because they always knew they could, and because a better option presented itself in Breslow.  And they like Breslow for Fultz's old job -- I think -- because they think he's going to give lefties real fits up there.  And just like a minor league deal, it's no big thing if it doesn't work, but if it does work, it could pay off nicely -- and not just in 2008.

And if it doesn't work out?  They'll DFA him, move on to the next guy, and never look back.