via www.fangraphs.com

I guess it would figure that the Indians come back to win a game after the starter barely got through five innings.

Fausto Carmona's frequent walking spells, which would have sent a pitcher with lesser stuff to the minors by now, shortened his outing tonight. Even though the Yankee lineup tends to chew up starters before their normal finishing point, I don't really think it was their patience that forced Fausto out. It was Fausto's mechanics that acted up; like most of his starts, he'd be in the strike zone for several batters at a time, then his pitches would go off the radar. Carmona has now walked 30 batters in almost 40 innings, an astounding number, especially if you consider how low his ERA remains.

Victor Martinez was a late scratch, making Jhonny Peralta (.216/.276/.392) and Ryan Garko (.242/.361/.354) the #3 and #4 hitters. The scary thing is that those were the proper choices, unless you wanted to move Sizemore down. Ben Francisco was in the lineup, just up from Buffalo, not to mention one of Andy Marte's rare appearances. (Side note: If you throw out Jamey Carroll, every one of those in tonight's lineup either made their major-league debut with the Indians or still had rookie eligibility when they debuted with the Indians. And that includes all the pitchers who made appearances in tonight's game as well.)

But despite another shaky outing from Carmona, despite not doing much against Andy Pettitte, the Indians won the game. The offensive production came on two swings of the bat. The first swing was Jhonny Peralta's home run to right-center in the fourth. The second came in the eighth inning off Joba Chamberlain when pinch-hitter David Dellucci flew out to the short porch in right field. Dellucci's home run came after Ryan Garko seemingly let Joba off the hook by weakly flying out when ahead in the count.

For a game in early May, this win was pretty significant. The Indians haven't been the only team struggling early this season, and even with a below-.500 record, they are now just 1.5 games behind the first-place Twins. For all the trials and tribulations April brought, the Indians don't really need to make up much ground.

The series:  Hosted the Mariners (loss, win, win) and the Royals (loss, loss).

The big story:  The lineup suffered a massive power outage from every player except Sizemore, as our other 12 "hitters" combined for zero home runs, zero triples and just nine doubles over 145 at-bats — and incidentally only 11 walks over 163 plate appearances — for a .262 slugging percentage.  (The major league average last season was .422.)  Our middle infielders produced just one single in 30 at-bats.  Blake and Hafner combined for just four hits, though all were doubles, in 29 at-bats.  The other four regulars (Martinez, Garko, Gutierrez and Dellucci) went the "empty batting average" route, hitting a solid .294 but combining for just three doubles and three walks between them.

The team's curious response was to jettison Jason Michaels in favor of Ben Francisco.  Curious, because after a horrendous 3-for-33 start in the team's first 15 games, Michaels had posted an 880 OPS over the past 16 games and was not part of the team's problems in any visible way.  Curious, because Michaels has a very team-friendly contract.  Curious, because Francisco had gotten off to an equally slow start in Buffalo and had made less of a rebound.  Curious, because the two players bring a very similar mix of skills to the roster.  Curious, because most in the industry expect Francisco to be a role-player or fringe everyday player, just like Michaels.

Curious, in sum, because it's not clear the Indians have done anything at all except replace one face with another, and usually, that kind of superficial move is reserved for the manager's job.  But, you know, they say you can't start a fire without a spark.  I guess.  Whatever.

In other news:  The rest of the rotation also continued to dominate, allowing just one earned run all week before the 7th inning, capped off by Aaron Laffey, who tossed an even better Sunday gem than he did last week, making the Indians look smart for not taking an easy chance to skip his turn in the rotation.  Paul Byrd continued a totally unpublicized four-game tear in which he's given up four home runs but only six runs total, and just one walk total, averaging 6.6 IP with a 1.71 ERA.  Garko more or less broke out of a hellacious 0-for-24 slump.  Wedge seethed a lot.  Betancourt was less than inspiring, failing to record a scoreless appearance in three tries.

Meanwhile, over on the Bizarro Planet, Cliff Lee was untouchable for six more innings before finally ending his un-scored-upon streak at 28 innings — giving up a three-run bomb, reducing his outing to a mere quality start, and ballooning his ERA all the way up to 0.96, still easily the best in the majors this season.  Like two regressions passing in the night, Sabathia's start was eerily similar to Lee's, beginning with six scoreless innings and ending with three straight hits to start the 7th.  Sabathia pitched well overall but still owns the league's worst ERA at 7.51.

Post of the week:  Maybe I need to rethink this.

Who fed it:  Byrd pitched the best game of the week, allowing just four singles and one walk.  Two of those five baserunners were erased trying to steal second, and none of them ever reached second.  Byrd retired the leadoff batter in all eight innings, and only two batters reached base with less than two outs.  Laffey was nearly as good in his start, allowing just one unearned run on four singles and two walks.  Sizemore busted out a 1311 OPS, including as many extra bases (nine) as the rest of the roster combined, and as many walks (five) as the four corner positions plus DH and catcher.  Perez had an odd but successful week, at one point earning a "Hold" without facing a single batter; he faced four batters over three other games, producing three groundballs and one flyball, resulting in a single and three outs.  Jensen Lewis allowed no hits and one walk over 4.1 innings, and Tom Mastny struck out one guy and allowed another to reach on a groundball error, the only two batters he's faced in the last 19 days. Absolute Best:  Sizemore.  Relative Best:  Byrd.

Honorable mention:  in his final start as an Indian (and only start of the week), Jason Michaels hit a double and a sac fly.  The next day, he scored the 11th inning game-winner as a pinch-runner in his final game here.  Not as dramatic as a farewell home run, but a fitting send-off for a role player who always seemed to be working his ass off out there.

Who ate it:  It's been feast-or-famine almost every week for Peralta, and this week, it was an all-out 0-for-13 famine.  Cabrera was nearly as bad at 1-for-16.  Blake's strikeouts (six) were double his times on base (three); he's played every inning of the last nine games, producing a line of .100/.206/.167.  Betancourt, filling in capably for Borowski, yielded two home runs and four singles while retiring only five batters.  Hafner hit two doubles in one game but went 0-for-10 in three others; he's struck out 14 times in his last 56 trips to the plate, hitting just four singles and four doubles and drawing only five walks for a line of .167/.250/.250.  Breslow totally crapped the bed in his only appearance in the last 19 days.  Absolute Worst:  Peralta.  Relative Worst:  Betancourt.

The other guys:    The Twins surged while the White Sox struggled and the Tigers scuffled.  The division more than ever looks like it will go to any team that can manage anything close to 90 wins, as the Tigers' pitching and the Indians' hitting look no more likely to come together than the White Sox or Twins going on a big flukey run.

False alarms:

• Not one single hitter having a good year by his own standards.
  
• Betancourt, terrible.
• Roger Clemens, apologizing for something.
• Not one formidable opponent in the AL Central.

Open questions:

• Can the starters walk on water long enough for the lineup to regroup and win a few games?
  
• Is there something fundamentally wrong with the organizational approach to hitting, and how long can Derek Shelton keep his job?
  
• When Cliff Lee returns to reality, what will that look like?
  
• Which teams are really in the AL Central race, anyway?
• Just how bad will the game have to be going before we see Mastny or Breslow again, and how bad will they be after a 15-day layoff?
• Too soon to write Laffey's name into our starting rotation plans, 2009-2013?
  
• Can Betancourt regain anything remotely resembling his 2007 dominance for any amount of time, or will he scuffle back-and-forth all season as he did in 2006?
• Is Jensen Lewis back on track, sort of?
• How many relievers would have to be failing completely for Adam Miller to get the call to the big-league bullpen?  Do we even want to see him there?
• Could Sowers be on the block soon?
• Could the Indians really consider Marte more or less expendable and Blake more or less untouchable?
• Really?

The series:  Visited the Royals (win, win, win) and hosted the Yankees (win, win, loss, loss).

The big story:  There were several, and perhaps the biggest was simply that we had a strong week, winning five of seven to move into second place.   But the most significant development for the 2008 season going forward was C.C. Sabathia's total U-turn from trainwreck to dominant starter.  Sabathia gave up just one run over 14 innings, striking out 11 hapless Royals in the first game and tossing an 8-inning gem in which only five Yankees reached base in the second.  This pair of consecutive starts was one of the best of Sabathia's career, surpassed in 2007 only by his back-to-back shutouts in June.  At the same time, his first four starts were so horrendous (13.50 ERA) that even after the extreme two-start bounce-back, his ERA is still the worst in the majors at 7.88 – even worse than Barry Zito's.  Sabathia's excellence ended up being of no real immediate consequence, as the Indians turned the first one into a 15-1 rout, then handed Sabathia a tough 1-0 loss in the second.

In other news:  Jake Westbrook unexpectedly went on the Disabled List with a lower-back muscle strain.  Initially expected to miss only a few starts, he's now expected to be out for a full month after his symptoms persisted for a full week.  His injury, combined with a rain-delay-induced double-header, resulted in a flurry of call-ups and send-downs as the Indians played with an extra outfielder for a few days (Ben Francisco), swapped out for a spot starter (Jeremy Sowers) on Saturday, swapped out for another extra outfielder (Brad Snyder) on Sunday, and finally on Monday swapped out for Aaron Laffey, who will join the rotation at least for the following week.  Both starters made fine 2008 debuts against the Yankees, with Laffey looking significantly stronger than Sowers even though the box scores will claim the opposite.

Lee deepened his improbable run as the game's most effective pitcher with a complete game shutout, as the national media joined Indians fans in collectively dropping their jaws.  The lineup blew up for 24 runs in the first two games but then fizzled with just 14 runs in the next five, a trend led by Casey Blake, who posted a 2125 OPS in two games against the Royals but just a 350 OPS starting all four games against the Yankees.  The post-Borowski bullpen started to come together as Kobayashi asserted himself with a few strong setup performances while Betancourt breezed through his first two Save opportunities, making the closer's job look suspiciously un-different from his old setup-man gig.

Adam Miller finally made his official 2008 debut in Buffalo, following a few weeks rehabbing a blister and a few weeks in extended spring training.  Miller pitched nine scoreless innings in two starts while continuing to build up his pitch count, and his velocity was intact even if his peripherals weren't.  Miller's return, coupled with Brian Slocum's solid start, suggests that the Indians remain an absurd eight-deep in big-league-ready starting pitchers, even after putting Westbrook on the DL and shipping Sean Smith off to Colorado.  At the same time, David Huff, 39th overall draft pick in 2006, overcame a rocky first two starts to pitch his third straight gem for the Akron Aeros, allowing just one run (on a solo shot) and 13 baserunners against 19 strikeouts over the three games, and he picked off a couple guys, too.  If Huff continues to emerge, that may further tempt the Indians to move Miller into the big-league bullpen.

Post of the week:  Now taking nominations.

Who fed it: Sabathia dominated in two starts while Lee was near-spotless in his one.  Julio excelled in two low-leverage outings, while Kobayashi and Betancourt settled into their new roles; the three relievers faced 32 batters and got 29 outs, including two erased on double-plays, and allowed no one past first base.  Blake had the best all-around numbers of any hitter on the week but was abysmal against the Yankees.  Victor batted .375, achieving a 902 OPS on the week with (once again) no home runs.  Dellucci and Peralta each combined a solid average with a pair of home runs.  Seemingly competing for at bats, Michaels and Gutierrez both accounted for a major chunk of our otherwise anemic offense against the Yankees, the former batting .400 while the latter slugged .600, and they looked damned good in the field, too.  Special mention must be given to Aaron Laffey, who no-hit the Yankees for five innings and, through sheer horrendous luck alone, gave up four runs in the 6th when he deserved to give up, at most, one. Absolute Best:  Sabathia.  Relative Best:  Lee.

Who ate it:  It's hard to say what the worst part of Ryan Garko's week was, the .042 average, the .115 OBP or the .083 slugging.  I'm going with the .042 average, because he was just one walk short of decent walk rate, and hey, his isolated power is almost 2.0!  Unfortunately, even those minimal contributions were mostly confined to last Tuesday's game, and Garko's line for the last five games was .000/.048/.000.  Aside from Garko, the rest of the Indians put up a more-than-respectable .302/.360/.451 line for the week.  Hafner continued his harrowing march to the bottom, with week-by-week OPS totals of 824, 761, 592 and (this week) 512 — or, if you prefer, he has a 559 OPS over his last 17 games.  Absolute Worst:  Garko.  Relative Worst:  Garko.  Twenty Other Kinds Of Worst:  Garko.  And Yet The Guy Who Really Makes Me Suicidal Is Still:  Hafner.

The other guys:  We made Wang look like Bob Gibson.  The rest of it, pretty fuzzy, maybe I'll fill it in later, does anybody really care about this section?

False alarms:

• Cliff Lee, greatest pitcher in the universe.
  
• Chien-Ming Wang, second greatest.
• C.C. Sabathia, third greatest (he's actually about tenth).
• Ben Francisco in a Cleveland uniform.
  
• Ryan Garko, worst hitter ever.
• Jhonny Peralta on web gems last night.
• J-Mike, serviceable big-league hitter.

Open questions:

• How long will Jake be out, and once he returns, will he be totally awesome, or merely awesome?
• How long can Chicago stay at the top of the standings?
  
• Since any blogger writing in his/her parents' basement in his/her underwear can notice when a reliever's velocity is down 3-5 mph, and might actually write about it without the team's permission, what exactly do we need newspaper columnists for?
• Too soon to start panicking about losing Cliff Lee after 2010?
• When the hell is Slider's birthday, anyway?
  
• Can Kobayashi confuse hitters with his deathballs all season like Okajima did?
• Can Julio be useful?
• How long will we keep marching Stomp Lewis out there with reduced velocity?
• Just how bad will the game have to be going before we see Mastny or Breslow again, and how bad will they be after a 15-day layoff?
• Has anyone noticed that Eddie Mujica is in his last option year?  Does anyone care?
• How much better can Laffey be than he was last year?  Is his ceiling is higher than we think?
• Can Steel Rafi get settled and find some semblance of his 2007 consistency?
• How many relievers would have to be failing completely for Adam Miller to get the call to the big-league bullpen?  Do we even want to see him there?
• Could Sowers be on the block soon?
• Is it really possible for Marte to spend 120 more days on the roster than Ben Francisco this season, and yet still get fewer at bats?
  
• Is Wedge basically just testing Marte to see how long it takes him to get an obviously bad attitude, at which point they ship him out?
• Will Shapiro fall for this kind of nonsense again?

via www.fangraphs.com

Even with the offense recently waking up, the Indians' strength all season has been their starting pitching. Paul Byrd (ignore the WPA) continued that trend, limiting a full-strength Yankee lineup to four runs on six hits. Eric Wedge, who normally will not err on the side of caution when it comes to pulling a starter, has been very aggressive with Paul Byrd so far this season. Byrd had thrown just 77 pitches through 5.2, but after giving up a home run to Hideki Matsui, was hooked quickly.

The move paid off, as Rafael Perez bridged the gap between the sixth and the ninth, allowing only one baserunner and using just 23 pitches in his 2.1 innings, quite a feat against a finicky New York offense. Perez wasn't expected to go the distance, as Wedge had Masa Kobayashi warming behind Perez, but the Indians' manager changed his plans after he saw how Raffy Left looked.

The Indians' offensive upsurge hasn't been driven by the stars of the lineup, but by everyone else. Tonight it was the unlikely trio of Jamey Carroll (2 hits, 2 SB, 1 RBI), Jhonny Peralta (2 H, 1 HR, 4 RBI), and Franklin Gutierrez (HR) who accounted for the six runs scored tonight. Carroll has slowly been winning playing time over Asdrubal Cabrera, and while he's not the future at second, he's certainly been good enough warrant more at-bats in the present.

The series:  Hosted the Red Sox (loss, loss) and Tigers (loss, win) and visited the Twins (win, loss, loss).

The big story:  We got six quality starts out of seven, but our offense got exactly one win out of those six quality starts.  These weren't borderline quality starts, either – in each of the six, the starter either made it into the 7th inning or gave up less than 2 runs, and in three out of six, he did both.  Five regulars put up averages under .170 while only one hit better than .250 – but they maddeningly continued to draw walks, drawing the fifth-most this week in the AL despite apparently not being able to hit.  The Indians were only outscored by five runs on the week but managed to distribute their runs badly, winning two games by 14 runs and losing five games by 19 runs.  The net result is that the Indians missed an opportunity to get a little distance in the standings from the Tigers, joining them in the cellar instead, and fans are forced to start wondering just how inevitable a crash is for first-place Chicago.

In other news:  Sabathia and Borowski, nominally our #1 starter and reliever respectively, further bombed out.  Already the worst starter in baseball entering the week, Sabathia gave up his second nine-spot in a week's time, one of just two pitchers to give up more than six runs in a game, twice, in 2008 – and his co-honoree Tom Gorzellany has an ERA more than four runs lower.  Borowski, meanwhile, failed in such spectacular and obvious fashion – struggling to throw a  fastball over 80 mph – that many felt relieved to see such his agonizing career as Indians closer end swiftly (at least for the moment) by a trip to the DL for "noodle-like symptoms."  It turned out that Borowski's giddyup deficit was well known to the staff, which raised questions as to why he was allowed to attempt to close four games.  Sabathia and Borowski's struggles led directly to five of our 12 losses this season, and we survived Sabathia's Opening Day blowout and nearly overcame another on April 11.  So it's not wishful thinking to believe that even with all the team's other problems, we'd probably be 11-8 right now had these two pitchers not failed so profoundly.

Lee continued his improbable run as the game's most effective pitcher, leading the majors in RA, ERA and FIP.   Byrd made a more or less unheralded return to form this week with two very fine starts, while Carmona quieted fears following last week's  nine-walk adventure.  Hafner hit a game-winning home run but otherwise struggled to keep his OPS over 700, as Indians fans start to wonder if we haven't even seen him hit rock-bottom yet.   Perez bounced back from a shellacking the previous weekend to pitch effectively in four games, but he was finally touched for a run on his 11th batter of the game yesterday, his first game facing more than 9 batters since moving out of long relief last June.  Despite being tagged with a loss yesterday, he actually made great strides toward re-asserting himself as an 8th-inning ace.

Post of the week:  Now taking nominations.

Who fed it:  Byrd pitched far better than your typical #5 starter, giving up just one run over 13 IP in two starts.  Lee put up eight innings of two-hit, shutout ball and fans looked on in disbelief.  Victor surged back with a 12-for-27 week, but his searing .444 average was a little empty, accompanied by just one walk and one extra-base hit, a double.  Carroll continued to perform well in a supporting role, supplementing his .200 average with a beefy .500 secondary average and his usual fine defensive play.  Perez was unlucky on base hits but overall very effective over four games and 4.2 IP, allowing just one walk and no extra-base hits to go with 6 K's – 11 groundballs, 3 flyballs and just one line drive.  Absolute Best:  Lee.  Relative Best:  Byrd. 

Who ate it:  Sabathia and Borowski were complete disasters – although in fairness, Sabathia's ERA for the week (20.25) was twice as good as Borowski's (40.50) .  While many hitters were terrible, nothing was more awful than Peralta's slugging average of .136, or more disappointing than Sizemore's overall line of .160/.300/.240, or more troubling than Hafner's overall line of .167/.259/.333.  Stomp Lewis had two miserable outings out of two, lucky to give up only two runs to Boston after allowing two doubles and two walks in the two-run loss, and allowing two walks before getting just one out a few nights later.  Absolute Worst:  Peralta.  Relative Worst:  Borowski.

The other guys:  Indians pitchers got mugged pretty good by Manny, Lugo and Pedroia for the Red Sox, as well as Renteria, Cabrera and Inge for the Tigers, but nobody inflicted as much damage as Youkilis, who collected a walk, a single, three doubles and a home run in just two games, good for a 2075 OPS.   Ortiz produced an empty 3-for-10, 600 OPS, and needed some luck even to do that well.  Pudge went 0-for-6, stranding ten, in a game where his teammates were teeing off on Indians pitchers to the tune of 11 runs.  Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez, both 22-year-olds acquired in the offseason, combined for just one single and one walk in 23 AB.  On the other side, the Indians dispatched Verlander, Lester and Liriano handily only to get manhandled by the utterly unheralded Armanda Galarraga and Nick Blackburn, plus the somewhat heralded Scott Baker.  The Indians put up a five-spot on Detroit's Zach Miner to seal their one strong offensive game, but against Boston, Papelbon and Okajima each sealed a two-run victory with a two-strikeout perfect final frame.

False alarms:

• Paul Byrd as an excellent starter.
  
• Sabathia being the worst pitcher in the game.
• Borowski being sent in to close a game.
  
• Perez looking rough.
  

Open questions:

• Can we turn it around quickly enough that we don't dig a 2006-sized hole for ourselves in the standings?
  
• Since any blogger writing in his/her parents' basement in his/her underwear can speculate on whether C.C.'s contract situation is distracting him, what exactly do we need newspaper columnists for?
• Too soon to start the Cy watch for Cliff Lee?
• How long can Byrd keep it together?
• How long can Sabathia keep it apart?
• What kind of production will the team consider acceptable from AbaCab? 
  
• Why are the Indians so strangely unwilling to play Blake in LF or RF, which would allow them to give Marte playing time in lieu of Micheals and sometimes Gutierrez?
• Is there anything more to the lack of playing time for Marte, other than his just being low-man on the totem pole to start the season?
  
• How much playing time will Carroll siphon from Peralta and especially AbaCab, and will his performance hold up given more exposure?
  
• Will Borowski ever return to the active roster, and if so, in what role?
• Kobayashi, Breslow, Julio – seriously, can these guys pitch?
  

The series:  Visited the Angels (loss, win, loss) and hosted the Athletics (loss, loss, win).

The big story:  The 2008 rotation became Bizarro 2007 Rotation.  Westbrook and Lee were the team's biggest problems in early 2007, combining for a 6.99 ERA through June 2, with just four quality starts in just 13 tries, having missed nine starts due to injury.  Their paths diverged after that, with Westbrook returning from the DL to be one of the league's better pitchers in the final three months, while Lee's downward spiral culminated in three straight seven-run trainwrecks and a demotion to Buffalo.  This season, the two have combined for a 1.31 ERA and have the same four quality starts in their four tries.  This week, Westbrook was either one ground ball or 480 feet away from a shutout, depending on how you look at it, while Lee baffled the Athletics for eight innings of two-hit ball.  Lee has allowed just one walk and one extra-base hit in his two starts.

On the flip side, Carmona, so dominant in 2007, started 2008 with fine results but worrisome walk totals, and they finally caught up with him this week in an eight-walk trainwreck in which he was lucky to give up only 3 runs in 3.1 innings.  Byrd, surprisingly good to start 2007, has been surprisingly terrible to start 2008.  Sabathia, the Cy Young incumbent, produced his third trainwreck in three tries, in fact the worst of the three, and has been the worst starter in all of baseball this season.  The last time an Indians starter made three straight starts with an 11-something ERA, he was demoted to the minors the next day, despite his multi-year deal and multi-million-dollar salary.  That man, of course, was Cliff Lee.

In other news:  All in all, it feels like we're closer to 4-8 than 6-6, whether or not that's actually the case.  JoBo served up the first totally incomprehensible and indigestible loss of the year.  Iron Rafi seemed to right himself with two perfect innings following a very shaky start, while Steel Rafi got roughed up pretty good.  Carmona signed a deal almost too good to be believed, with the Indians guaranteeing just $14.5 million for 2009-2011 while securing Carmona's services at bargain prices clear through 2014.  Victor slowly returned to the lineup with little sign of ill effects.  The Tigers deepened their early-season hole with a 2-4 performance, getting outscored 39-18 and suffering the losing side of three shutouts along with a minor rash of minor injuries.  Gutierrez had the sniffles ("I am Jay's total lack of surprise"), leading to the natural conclusion that Wedge should be fired, while Dellucci defiantly emerged as our second-best hitter behind Garko.

Post of the week:  Now taking nominations.

Who fed it:  Peralta slugged a cool 947 with three home runs, now on pace for 40.    Dellucci smacked three doubles in his four starts, scored as a pinch-runner, and pulled a bases-loaded walk as a pinch-hitter, ending the week with an astonishingly useful .400/.526/.600 line.  Lee and Westbrook rocked.  Masa, J.J., Craigers and Stomp gave up 3 runs total in 13.2 innings of mostly long relief, with 10 K, 5 BB and 8 hits.  Jamey Carroll was transcendently solid, pairing deft defense with a .545 OBP.  Shoppach hit .375 with a clutch home run.  Absolute Best:  Peralta.  Relative Best:  Dellucci. 

Who ate it:  Sabathia and Byrd unequivocally crapped the bed in their only starts.  AbaCab went 4-for-19, but it's 4-for-24 if we include last Sunday's game, with just one walk and no extra bases.  Michaels was an empty 2-for-14, no walks or extra bases – which sadly raised his OPS by 50 points, all the way to 315 – and in fact his OBP (.133) was even lower than his average (.143).  Sizemore slugged just .275 over the past ten games, with no extra base hits despite a fine average (the same .275 of course) and decent OBP (.362).  Finally, since his clutch double on Opening Day, Blake's line is .129/.206/.161, and he really might be playing his way out of a job.  Absolute Worst:  Michaels.  Relative Worst:  Sabathia.

The other guys:  Joe Saunders had a terrific outing against us to start the week; K-Rod did not.  Vlad and Torii combined to go 8-for-23, and each smacked two home runs in three games.  Darren Oliver faced ten batters, hit two of them and walked one, but gave up no hits or runs.  Some poor bastard named Fernando Hernandez gave up six runs to us in two outings, recording only a HBP and a run-scoring walk in the first game.  The second time out, he very nearly got through two whole scoreless innings, but then he changed his mind and quickly gave up four runs.  Bobby Crosby went 5-for-11 with a home run and two walks.

False alarms:

• Royals and White Sox, still in first place.
• Sabathia being the worst pitcher in the league.
  
• Cliff Lee as Cy Young candidate.
• Marte getting a start.
  

Open questions:

• Could we stop screwing around and have one really good week please?
  
• Since any blogger writing in his/her parents' basement in his/her underwear can speculate on whether C.C.'s contract situation is distracting him, what exactly do we need newspaper columnists for?
• How good can Cliff Lee really be, and for how long?
  
• Can Dellucci be the nice role player he was meant to be for us?
• Still too soon for a Michaels death-watch?
• Too soon to mention a Caesy Blake death-watch, even in hushed tones?
  
• Martevich?  Martevich Martevich Martevich Martevich?
  
• Still too soon for a Tigers 2008 season death watch?
• How healthy will Victor be this season?
• Could Peralta be charging into a breakout season, just one month from his 26th birthday?
  
• Can Cliff Lee really bounce back to be a pretty good pitcher?
• Does anybody have any clue who will be our 2009 Opening Day starter?
• For more than half our relievers, do we really have the slightest idea if they're really good or really bad?
  

via www.fangraphs.com

You know how sometimes a pitching line doesn't tell the whole story? This isn't one of those times:

3.1 IP, 9 ER, 12 H, 4 SO, 2 BB

Causes of CC's early-season struggles? There's no perceptible change in CC's velocity, and his pitch mix hasn't changed dramatically. And there's no physical problems:

Sabathia said he "felt great," which only made the night more difficult.

"There's no excuse ... why I'm pitching this way," he said. "It's just one of those things. But I've been here before, and I'm definitely going to get this thing right."

So is it his uncertain contract status? That uncertainty isn't changing until at least November. He's allowed 35 baserunners in 14 innings, a combination of not staying in the strike zone and, when in the strike zone, staying in the middle of the plate.

Even with Sabathia's problems, the Indians made a game of it, scoring six runs in the eighth inning, and brought the tying run to the plate. Huston Street settled things down, though, getting a weak fly from the bat of David Dellucci to end the rain-lengthened eighth. He then set the Indians down in order in the ninth.

Jorge Julio allowed the final two Sabathia runs to score in the fourth, but otherwise the bullpen was perfect, finishing out the game without allowing any more damage.  Craig Breslow  hasn't allowed a run in his four innings pitched this season.

Game Eight: Indians 4, Angels 3  

Jake Westbrook again pitched extremely well, and this time, he got the victory. Jake gave up three runs on seven hits, but threw nine innings on only 95 pitches. Only in the sixth inning did he face more than four hitters.

He was able to pitch the ninth thanks to Pronk's ninth inning two-run homer. Both Francisco Rodriguez and Scot Shields were unable to pitch, leaving Justin Speier to attempt the save. Speier got the first two hitters easily enough, but Asdrubal Cabrera coaxed a two-out walk, bringing up Hafner, who crushed one out to right field. If you're interested, that home run was worth .712 in WPA.

Game Nine: Angels 9, Indians 5

Compared to Jake Westbrook's performance the night before, Paul Byrd looked like an emergency callup. Byrd again couldn't spot his pitches, and was thrashed by the Angels. Byrd was brutally honest after his three-inning outing:

"I haven't had my command at all," Byrd said. "I haven't had very good stuff, either. To pitch up here, you have to have one of the two, for sure. I have neither right now."

Of course, Byrd's stuff isn't really that good, at least good enough to for him to get  away with it being in the wrong location. Fausto Carmona can miss his spot and still get an out or a swinging strike. If Byrd misses his location and the pitch usually gets hit hard.

The offense was much better, and actually brought the Indians back into the game for a time. The Tribe had 12 hits, which for early 2008 was an outburst. Kelly Shoppach and Jhonny Peralta both homered, and four Indians had multi-hit games. Travis Hafner followed up his heroics the night before with an 0-4 with two strikeouts.

Like his last start, CC Sabathia's problem was control, walking four in 5.1 innings.
He had racked up 107 pitches when he was pulled. This against a lineup that shouldn't have given him any problems. 

More alarming than Sabathia's struggles, however, were the offense's inability to yet again put together any production whatsoever. Victor Martinez was the Indians' best hitter last season, but in a nine-man lineup, one player's absence shouldn't cause that devastating effect. The main culprits in the power outage have been Jhonny Peralta (.143/.190/.143), Casey Blake (.118/.167/.176), and the left field platoon (no hits in 13 at-bats). 

To top things off, Rafael Betancourt, last year's bullpen security blanket, gave up 4 hits and two runs in just one-third of an inning. It didn't affect the outcome of the game (the offense made sure of that), but it's another uncertainty to add to the pile that's accumulated over the first week of the season.

My real prediction:  Another long season for Tigers fans.

I learned something from my post yesterday, from the way it not only didn't provoke much discussion, it actually seemed to chill discussion everywhere on the site.  It just seemed to trigger the latent resignation that flows in our veins as Cleveland fans.  Maybe I've should have known better, maybe I thought your intelligence would kick in, maybe I owe you an apology.

But people ... how could you fall for that?

Have you forgotten who and what this team really is?

The guys who went 96-66, the best record in baseball.

The guys who played through snow-outs, who played three home openers and won all three.

The guys who set the tone early by sweeping the Tigers in Detroit.

The guys with the best and deepest rotation, the most dominant 1-2 punch, the Cobra, the best big three, and the goddam Cy Young winner.

The guys who beat the best pitcher in the game five times in one season, when no other team had ever beat him three times.

These guys.

The guys who stalled out in June and July but never collapsed, and the guys who charged back to dominate down the stretch.

The guys who took a surging Twins team, coming off a 9-3 run and threatening to get back in the race, and swept them both home and way, six wins over ten days , to end their season.

The guys who unceremoniously booted the Tigers out of the race with yet another sweep, sending them 7.5 games back when they could have been 1.5 games back.  That's the photo at the top, the first game of that series, Casey Blake with the walkoff in the 11th.

The guys who delivered a vicious beatdown to the Yankees in the playoffs, chilling and silencing a Yankee Stadium crowd.  The guys who – let's just put it out there – nearly sent the best team in the game home early.

The guys with the fists.

The guys with the grit.

And the clutch.

And yes, the guys who know all about pi ... and all about pie.

(Purely as an aside, when you do an image search for Chris Antonetti, one of the first results to pop up is this, which I take as just further proof that people must really, really love being a part of the Indians organization.)

Yeah, that's right ... those guys.  You love those guys, remember?  And they're more or less awesome, remember?

Those guys are back.  Those guys have gotten better.

Those guys are going to win this year, and this is why.

1. Pure talent.  Seriously, did you really think the Tigers had more pure talent than the Indians?  Sure, the Tigers had some injuries, but they had a bunch of fluke seasons, and all it got them was 88 wins.  They had to import Miguel Cabrera just to try to close the gap.
   
   Let me tell you about a difference in talent.  On our club, we make Cliff Lee fight and practically grovel for the last spot in the rotation.  On their club, they trade for "the Cliff Lee of the NL" and hand him the #3 starter job.  When your #7 starter is about as good as their #3, that isn't just us having depth, it's them being in trouble.
   
   People ... half our roster was born in the 80's.  We aren't on the wrong side of 30, we're on the right side of 28.  Our roster is younger, less injury prone, and full of guys who could take small or large steps forward.  Garko or even Peralta could hit 30 home runs, and Sizemore could make a run at an MVP.  Our catcher created 109 runs last season, theirs only 59 – and our guy is 29, while theirs is 36.
   
   The Indians won 96 games last season, and our players as a group are on the rise.  The Tigers won 88 games last season, and their players on the whole are in decline.  MIguel Cabrera isn't enough to close that gap, and they traded most of their best young talent to get him.  The Tigers may have a hair more raw talent than the Indians on their roster, but too much of that talent is old and breaking down.
   
   
2. Regression is a bitch ... for the other guys.  It's the most clear-cut, powerful and undeniable force in baseball – stronger than the age curve and more reliable than platoon splits.  The Tigers may seem poised to bounce back from a down year, but their 88 wins were propped up by a number of flukey career seasons, while our 96 wins by and large were not.
   
   Just look at the BABIP for the two teams' regulars.  The bottom of the list is Sheffield, who wasn't so much unlucky as he was playing hurt.  Then there's Hafner, who definitely suffered some bad luck even if that wasn't his only problem.  Then there's Inge, who won't be a factor, and Victor, who will.  Check it out:  Victor put up downballot-MVP type numbers despite hitting into some of the worst luck on either team.  It would be hard to bet on him improving on 2007, but his luck probably will.
   
   Now look at the top of the list – Ordoñez at .381, Granderson at .360, Polanco at .346, compared with their career marks of .314, .344 and .314.   And not even listed there – Renteria at .375, against a career mark of .322.  The snapback to reality on these guys is going to be enormous – PECOTA is mean-projecting a 56-run drop in production from Ordoñez alone – essentially negating the upgrade from Inge to Cabrera – to go with a 40-run drop for Granderson and a 30-run drop for Renteria.
   
   In fairness, PECOTA predicts every player to drop after a good season, but this is an extreme case.  Granderson production rate is not expected to fall off much – he will be 27 after all – but then again, Sizemore's high-looking .333 BABIP is actually below his career average, meaning he too was slightly unlucky, and Hafner also is a good bet to improve at least somewhat on 2007.  As for the Tigers, their best bounceback candidate is a 39-year-old who's missed 150 games over the past two seasons.
   
   So regression is a bitch for the TIgers, who won't score 900 runs this season, let alone 1000.  But for the Indians, regression helps our lineup and work out about even in the rotation, where stellar seasons from Sabathia and Carmona were evenly matched by trainwrecks from Lee, Sowers and Westbrook.
   
   And you know who else is due for some good luck with the balls in play?  Joe Borowski.
   
   
3. Stellar depth.  Another one I can't believe you fell for.  How many teams have Josh Barfield as their 4th middle infielder, or Ben Francisco as their 6th outfielder, or Andy Marte as a backup third baseman, or Jeremy Sowers as their 7th starter, or Tom Mastny as their 9th reliever?  I'll tell you how many, none.  Every one of those guys would be playing in many other teams' lineups, rotations and bullpens.  It's totally ridiculous, and it's a great advantage, and it will absolutely matter this year, as it matters every year for almost every team.
   
   
4. Stellar youth.  Of course young players are inconsistent, but they improve more often than they decline.  Our youngest and least experienced key players will start at 2B and RF this season.  Any risk there is strongly mitigated by the fact that for both players, much of their value is in their exceptional defense, which is far more predictable.  And besides, the bar is incredibly low for each – the chance that we'll get less production out of those two positions in 2008 than we did in 2007 is practically nil.
   
   
5. Babied arms.  We have the best medical staff in the game, and they know how to protect pitchers.  Case in point:  Westbrook has never been more effective than in the second half last season, and this Spring he looked even better.  Carmona is going to be fine, he breezed economically through almost every start last year, hardly ever pitching under stress.  C.C. may show a little wear, but it won't break us.  And as for the other guys, who cares?  Our guys break down less than on any other team, and besides, we've got that stellar depth, too.
   
   
6. Wacky bullpens – not a problem.  You don't ever really know about bullpens.  Some years they collapse, some years they're stellar.  Here's the thing though ... last year, our bullpen collapsed and was stellar.  Just look at the body count:  Foulke, Oldberto, Matt Miler, J.D., Fernando – and most of the flame-outs were happening while Sowers, Lee and Westbrook were struggling to get into the 4th inning.
   
   That's enough to break most teams' bullpens, which in turn is enough to break most teams – but not the Indians.  They planned ahead, stocked up.  Spent most of the decade acquiring and developing arms, then picked up four veterans in the offseason – and they took good care of Rafael Betancourt.  That gave them a full boat of experienced guys in Cleveland, plus 4-5 young guys on the brink in Buffalo – plus Jensen Lewis in Akron.
   
   So despite all the flame-outs, the Indians finished with the 6th best bullpen ERA in the majors – not only didn't the bullpen sink the Indians, it was actually a strength.  The Indians keep 21 pitchers on the 40-man roster for just 12 big-league jobs, and this is the reason why.
   
   And now they've done it again, picking up Kobayashi, Julio, and Breslow to replace Oldberto, Miller and Fultz.  And this year, we've got Perez and Lewis taking the place of two multi-year head-scratchers.  And young'uns Mastny, Mujica, Santos and Stevens in Buffalo.  And who's to say we won't have another surprise breakout like Lewis' last year – Scott Lewis?  J.D. Martin?  Tony Sipp?  Adam Mller?  It's not that any one of these guys is likely to contribute, but the Indians have a ton of pitchers in various states of development and repair, and they basically never trade any.  At some point, it becomes more likely than not that one or more will contribute, even from the rehab bin.
   
   The Indians start off with a strong bullpen, full of guys with strong track records and hard-to-hit stuff, and it's considerably more stocked than Detroit's .  But more than that, the Indians are very well prepared for the inevitable struggles, injuries and flame-outs, and the Tigers are not prepared at all.  Wacky bullpens can sink almost any team, but they'll have a lot of trouble sinking these Indians.
   
   
7. Good timing.  Wedge finally figured out how to beat Pythagoras last season, so we're all good now.
   
   
8. That guy, finally.  It's an even-numbered year, and that can only mean one thing:  Miller Time.  I don't know if it'll be in the bullpen or the rotation, but Atom Miller will be healthy this year, and that means a bunch of big-league hitters are going to be striking out.
   
   
9. Lack of Vizquel, Thome, Manny, Millwood, and soon Sabathia, too.  It may be strange to say that losing Sabathia is part of why we'll win, but it is.  This team, as much or as any team in professional sports, is run by grownups.  They respect players, and their affection is palpable, but when it comes to making decisions, they leave their sentimentality at the door.  They don't kid themselves – they know you can find great insights in statistical analysis, but they know it doesn't have all the answers.  They're rigorous.  They're pros.  They've avoided the Big Mistake that sinks the season – or multiple seasons.  And they've never, ever made decisions based on trying to save face with the fans.
   
   They've built a great team with that approach, and I'll tell you just one more thing about them ...
   
   
10. Grit.  Dammit, I'm telling you these guys got a lot of grit.  Victor's got grit.  Shoppach is brimming with grit.  Sizemore will be diving in the outfield when he's 50.  Stomp Lewis has to take medication just to keep his grit under control.  Borowski has nothing but grit, but he'd never complain about that, because he's so damned gritty.  Betancourt, he's got all that and a bag of grit.
    
    And our much-maligned left field platoon, Dellucci and Michaels, those guys've got more grit than most entire rosters.  You people should be worshipping at their gritty, clutchy, diving, ass-slapping feet.
    
    And what I'm trying to tell you here, and I don't even know if it's right or natural or legal, but ... Diamondview's got grit.  I don't know how they did it, but they got grit into the Diamondview somehow, and now it's spitting out chemistry and intangibles and That Elusive It Factor along with the usual performance projections and market undervaluations.  We've never seen anything like it, but I'm telling you ... Diamondview's got grit.
    
    And by the way ... Scott Elarton?  Tom Mastny?  Ben Francisco?  That's right, even our depth has grit, which means that even our grit has depth.  If somebody gritty were to go down – and they often do, because that comes with playing the game the right way, you know – we've got someone else ready to step in and play just as gritty – someone gritty enough to start on most teams.  It's totally out of control.  It's enough to make Darin Erstad retire and Joe Morgan's head explode.

So let me sum it up for you.  We've got the talent, the timing, the grit, the smarts, the chemistry and the momentum.  We've got everything worth having on a ballclub, and the only question to be settled is whether we're the best team in the game or merely the best in our division.

It's our year.  And it starts today.