Traded OF Jason Michaels and cash to the Pittsburgh Pirates for a PTBNL

The Indians will be covering most of Michaels' 2008 salary; of the $2.15M owed Michaels this season, the Indians will be paying  $1.68M of it. The Pirates will be utilizing Michaels as their fourth outfielder; Nyjer Morgan, optioned to Indianapolis to make room for Michaels, had been hitting .161/.257/.194 in 31 at-bats. Though neither of Pittsburgh's left-handed outfielders have much a platoon split, Michaels should get regular at-bats as at least a pinch-hitter. If Michaels does well the remainder of this season, the Pirates have an affordable $2.6M 2009 option on Michaels.

As for the Indians, this gives Ben Francisco regular major-league at-bats. Until Shin-Soo Choo is healthy, what you see in the outfield today is what you're going to get. If Francisco hits, the Indians will have another tough decision when Choo's rehab stint is done; Choo is out of options, while Francisco can still be sent down.

Yes, the glorious day has finally arrived.  After a 20-month hiatus, I'm finally excavating and updating my ramshackle prospect ranking system, formerly known as the Exciting Prospects Standard and now redubbed with the more apt (but no more humble) moniker, Prospects That Matter.  Actually, it's not really a ranking system, it's actually a separating-the-men-from-the-boys system; the specific rankings are secondary, and frankly, I don't give them a great deal of thought.  It is perhaps best described as a way of organizing the way we look at our young talent.

Why the new name?  Well, my friends, I'm older now, and wiser, or perhaps more tolerant, or perhaps just lazier.  If you really find Chris Gimenez exciting, I'm not going to argue with you about it.  If, on the other hand, you want to tell me that Chris Gimenez should actually matter to an Indians fan, well, then, you might just have a fight on your hands.  The aim of the system remains the same, and that is, for a diehard Indians fan who doesn't follow the minors closely, to identify those prospects that are really worth knowing about -- and not to bother that fan with guys who are merely over-hyped or over-drafted.

PTM attempts to identify:  Which guys are the most likely to contribute to the Indians winning a pennant?  Which guys are going to contribute the most, and which guys are going to contribute the soonest?  To that end, the PTM player must meet one of these criteria:

• In Triple-A: succeeding at age 25, solid at 24, or younger.
• In Double-A: succeeding at age 23, solid at 22, or younger.
• In High-A: succeeding at age 21, solid at 20, or younger.
  
• In Low-A: succeeding at age 19, solid at 18, or younger.
• In short-season leagues: solid at age 17 or younger.

Triple-A players making this list are major-league-ready or nearly so and basically just waiting for an opportunity, while the High-A players on the list generally will be fairly high ceiling, and their success at such a young age makes them fairly likely to be a good major leaguer.  The Double-A players are a nice mix of readiness and likely success.  "Successful" generally means that he performed well enough to be promoted, and I try to take a nuanced view of a player's stats.  I start with basic productivity but keep a careful eye on peripherals, and particularly on K rates for pitchers.

Statements from team officials may also be considered, but ultimately the choice to promote or not to promote a player is more credible than any verbal statement.  Scouting reports are taken into account, but mostly with an eye toward projecting a player's defensive skills and likely role in the majors, which affects how good his bat will have to be in order to make it – in other words, in terms of pure hitting skills, the bar is lower for a standout defender like Brad Snyder than it is for a merely solid guy like Ben Francisco.  Injuries are always considered a negative factor, and in the PTM context, I never consider injuries a mitigating factor for a mediocre performance.

In 2006, PTM stubbornly championed guys like Carmona, AstroCab and Lofgren before they were fashionable, Adam Miller even when he was injured, solid successes like Garko and frustrating cases like Ferd and Marte – the system is fundamentally better at predicting who will earn a shot in the majors than who will succeed there, though it may be no worse than other systems in that regard.  Recent draft picks without track record and over-21 types dominating in the low minors were excluded without mercy, a tendency of PTM that irritated some fans in 2006 and will continue to irritate in 2008.  PTM preaches patience, not only at the plate but in our prospect rankings.  There are some guys I don't like leaving certain guys off the list any more than you do, but if the performance is there, those guys will jump on the list soon enough.

A note about the ages listed – it's their "seasonal age" for 2007, not 2008, listed that way because it's based on that age that we're evaluating their achievements so far.  I also pay little mind to "official" rules as to what makes a prospect.  If a player is 25 or younger and not a fully established major leaguer, he's a prospect in every way that actually matters to a team, or to a fan.

Prospects That Really, Really Matter — players who've met PTM criteria at an excessively young age.

1. Asdrubal Cabrera – 21, SS-2B, thrived in Double-A and was solid in the majors.  As if you didn't know.
2. Aaron Laffey – 22, RHP, not a lot of strikeouts but also not a lot of walks, performed  well and "equivalently" from Akron to Cleveland.
   
3. Adam Miller – 22, RHP, struggled with injuries but way ahead of the curve in Triple-A.  Still very much a potential ace.
   
4. Jensen Lewis – 23, RHP, unusual to rank a reliever this high, but Lewis truly dominated in Akron, and then Buffalo, and then Cleveland, and then against the Yankees in the playoffs, with an ERA under 2.00 and K rate over 10.  Frankly, this ranking might not be high enough — no other Indians prospect performed at this high of a level in 2007.
   
5. Andy Marte – 23, 3B, and you don't have to like it.  For one thing, once a guy has made the list, he only graduates by getting too old or succeeding in the majors.  Try to imagine 2007 was Marte's first season in Triple-A — 766 OPS, 23-year-old third baseman, it's actually pretty good.  But of course, his actual first season in Triple-A was at age 21.  His three-year total, ages 21-22-23, are .268/.337/.473.
6. Chuck Lofgren – 21, LHP, those who were disapointed by his season in Akron were forgetting how young he is to be an above-average pitcher at this level.  Lofgren will spend his age-22 season in Double-A, and he's a lefty with better stuff than Laffey or Sowers.

Prospects That Really Matter — those who beat the PTM criteria with room to spare.

7. Jeremy Sowers – 24, LHP, and like Marte, he would make the list based only on his age and 2007 numbers alone, but the high ranking is for his dazzling 2006 performance at age 23.
   
8. Sean Smith – 23, RHP, not turning any heads but had a very solid season in Triple-A.
   
9. Shin-Soo Choo – 24, OF, obviously slowed by injuries, but as with Sowers, we'd do well not to forget what he did at age 23.
   
10. Eddie Mujica — 23, RHP, also slowed by injuries, and also more impressive in 2006 than in 2007, but check out the great K/BB rates.  Still a potential impact reliever if he's healthy.
    

Prospects That Matter — others who've cleared the bar.

11. Nick "Weglarz!" Weglarz – 19, OF, bounced back from injury to make a stellar full-season debut.
    
12. Ben Francisco – 25, OF, improved on his age-24 numbers and made a solid debut in the majors.
    
13. Jordan Brown – 23, 1B, a knee injury reportedly sapped his power, but he still hit .333, and it will be interesting to see how his power develops this season.
14. Jeanmar Gomez – 18, RHP, suffocated Dominican Summer League hitters at 16 (2005) and dominated the Gulf Coast League at 17 (2006), although a bit reminiscent of Carmona, you have to wonder how a guy manages a 2.50 ERA with just 5.92 K/9.  His full-season debut was merely decent, and he's going to have to show more strikeouts and fewer home runs as he progresses, but he improved in both areas as the season progressed.  He'll be starting his age-19 season at High-A, something nobody else on this list has done or will do – youth and progress, that's what we're looking for here.  Somebody really needs to do a scouting report on this guy.
15. Jeff Stevens – 23, RHP, eye-popping K rates in Double-A and apparently not content to be a footnote, he may well hit the  Cleveland bullpen in 2008.
    
16. Carlos Rivero – 19, SS, marginal overall numbers, but a plus defender with a solid walk rate, and a decent amount of pop for a teenage middle infielder.
    
17. John Drennen – 20, CF, not unlike Lofgren, his struggles caused some to:: forget that he was one of the youngest players in his league.
18. Hector Rondon – 19, RHP, pitched better than Gomez at Lake County but is a year older, will also start the season in the Kinston rotation.
    

A few themes emerge on this year's list.  For one thing, it's huge, which either means I'm getting more lenient, or the criteria are letting in certain types of players too easily, or  that the Indians are justified in their strong confidence about the depth of their farm system, defying most "organizational talent" rankings.  A small core of players has been promoted to the advanced-A Kinston club to start the year at age 19 or 20, and it's a happy mix of two pitchers, one skill position player and one power-hitting Canadian.  This complements well the small core of college draftees who will converge on Akron in 2008 (with a good shot to make next year's list).

The other theme is guys succeeding in Triple-A at very young ages – not just at 25 but at 22 – but then possibly being stuck there, possibly because of a limited ceiling, possibly because that last jump to majors is the hardest.  Spots 5-10 are fairly dominated by a sense of, "Don't give up on me, I'm still young, I still matter!"  They all reached Buffalo by 22, and not one of them is 25 yet.

It may be that a future refinement of PTM should raise the bar in some way for Triple-A pitchers in particular, but then again, maybe the bar is just fine.  Part of the premise of the system is that a guy who reaches Triple-A at 22 may have the same stats as a low-ceiling 25-year-old, but he's got three whole seasons to figure out how to make that last jump.  Some research suggests that unlike a hitter's raw tools, a pitcher's stuff doesn't really improve after age 23, but it takes pretty good stuff just to get this far, and there's more to pitching than just stuff.  Something to ponder going forward.

More lists after the jump.

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Before playing their final Florida Spring Training game, the Indians optioned Ben Francisco to Buffalo, effectively setting their Opening Day 25-man roster. Shin-Soo Choo still has to go on the DL, but other than that, the roster's locked in.

There were two mild surprises this spring: Aaron Fultz released in favor of Craig Breslow, and Jorge Julio making the team over Tom Mastny. And for a team left intact like the Indians, no big surprises are a good thing. Thus far there have been no injuries to major-league players, no collisions with sprinkler heads, no 100-mile taxi rides, and the only controversy was between Casey Blake and Travis Hafner's pet dog.

After all these non-stories, you might wonder what the Indians' roster looks like. Well, you can see the latest 40-man roster on the left sidebar (thank you, SBN 2.0), so I'll jump right to the 25-man roster:

Infielders (plus Pronk)

 C Victor Martinez
1B Ryan Garko
2B Asdrubal Cabrera
SS Jhonny Peralta
3B Casey Blake
DH Travis Hafner
C Kelly Shoppach
IF Jamey Carroll
IF Andy Marte

Aside from the backups, no change from last year's configuration. The big question with this group concerns Marte: how often will Eric Wedge get him into games? Casey Blake's versatility will make it easier for Marte to get starts, for although Andy played first base this spring, his play there made Ryan Garko seem like a Gold Glover.

Otherwise, the playing time seems locked in. Carroll is the backup for Cabrera and Peralta, though I'd imagine he'd see most of his playing time at second, with Cabrera moving over to short on Jhonny's days off. Shoppach will catch every fifth day, with Victor Martinez playing first on most of those occasions. Of course, how well Garko (and, to some extent, Travis Hafner) hit will determine how many true days off Martinez will have.

Outfielders

RF Franklin Gutierrez
CF Grady Sizemore
LF David Dellucci
OF Jason Michaels

Dellucci's job is on the shakiest ground of any starting position player. Ben Francisco was sent down to Buffalo for no reason other than it was he who had an option. Shin-Soo Choo, who does not have an option, will be ready to play in a couple months. The Indians understand the meaning of a sunk cost, so if Dellucci isn't slugging .500 by the end of May, he'll be somewhere else.

I think Jason Michaels is pretty safe. Even though the Indians don't need a backup who can play center field (Gutierrez is probably better defensively than Sizemore there), he'd be useful with either Francisco or Choo starting in left.

Starting Rotation

LHP CC Sabathia
RHP Fausto Carmona
RHP Jake Westbrook
RHP Paul Byrd
LHP Cliff Lee

The only drama here was whether Cliff Lee could win back his starting job over a couple worthy contenders. And he did, pitching well enough to stay with the team. Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers provide the Indians excellent depth, so it isn't a given that Lee is off probation - remember, the Indians can still option him to Buffalo.

Aside from Lee, the main concern is how Fausto Carmona (and, to some extent, CC Sabathia) will fare after seeing a big uptick in innings pitched last season.

Bullpen

RHP Joe Borowski
RHP Rafael Betancourt
LHP Rafael Perez
RHP Jensen Lewis
RHP Masahide Kobayashi
LHP Craig Breslow
RHP Jorge Julio

Like last year, the Indians are going with all short relief. The Indians brought in Kobayashi to siphon off some innings from the Circle of Trust, as well as to guard against performance falloff from the COT. The Indians swapped out Fultz for Breslow, a classic example of how fungible matchup guys are. As Jay pointed out, Breslow gives the Indians more contractual upside, but he first has to get 2008 hitters before we can worry about when his arbitration cutoff will occur.

Given their roster makeup, the Indians can afford to keep Andy Marte with the major-league club, but he'll make it in a reserve role:

After hitting .275/.372/.506 in AAA at the age of 21, Marte's regressed the past two seasons. Injuries and a couple of poor major-league stints makes this season extremely important both for Marte and the Indians. He's only 24 years old, and  current third baseman Casey Blake is only signed through this season, so Andy remains the long-term solution at the hot corner. But he'll have to win the job playing only sporadically. And third base is really his only opportunity to play, since the Indians aren't going to want to sit Ryan Garko or Victor Martinez that often.

Shin-Soo Choo, who is also out of options, won't be able to play in the field until May, though he's hitting now. Like third base, left field isn't a settled position, so I would imagine the Indians will make sure Choo's rehab is very thorough, if you know what I mean.

Eric Wedge will go with seven pitchers in the bullpen:

Whoever loses out shouldn't feel that disappointed, for bullpens almost never keep the same configuration over the course of a season, let alone a month. I'm partial to Edward Mujica over the long haul, but Mastny seems to be a better fit for long relief.