This week:  5-2 Overall:  19-19 Scoring:  32-13 Old Mood:  3.1 New Mood:  4.5

W L % GB Minnesota 20 17 .540 - Cleveland 19 19 .500 1.5 Chicago 18 19 .486 2.0 Kansas City 16 21 .432 4.0 Detroit 16 22 .421 4.5

The series:  Visited the Yankees (win, win, loss) and hosted the Blue Jays (win, win, win, loss).

The big story:  The team put together a strong week behind a dominant rotation, but the daily lineups wore the strange hue of a series of odd decisions — moves that occasionally excited but more often puzzled, or even smelt of desperation.

Newly promoted Ben Francisco was used in all seven games, including five starts, performing similarly to (and not demonstrably better than) the man he replaced, who was traded to Pittsburgh for (we can guess) something in between a bag of balls and a case of bats.  Slight-hitting Jason Tyner was also promoted, adding to our already overstocked cupboard of weak-hitting outfielders, or perhaps more accurately subtracting by addition.  Even more strange than Tyner's promotion was his being given a start immediately upon his arrival.  We have four better-hitting outfielders — five if you count Blake — most of whom are also good or great defenders, so what was the point of this?

There seemed to be no rhyme or reason to it, unless it was to send the other players a message, something along the lines of:  "You guys suck so bad, we might as well be playing Jason freakin' Tyner.  That's right, you guys, it's that bad.  Our hitting is as pathetic as the goddam Twins now."

And then there's Andy Marte, long buried at the end of the bench, who shockingly got three starts this week — and yet already has fewer at-bats this season (22) than Ben Francisco (25), who has been on the roster only 11 days compared to Marte's 43.  Some guys just have to play, apparently, and some guys don't.  (See full screed.)  It's a good thing we don't have to understand these decisions, because who could?

In other news:  Cliff Lee ascended to a new level of other-worldly Chuck Norrissitude, leading a rotation that allowed just nine runs in seven starts, including five games allowing one run or zero.  Five!   Five starts allowing one run or zero!  This week alone!  Since April 17, Indians starters have allowed just 35 runs in 23 games, good for a 2.07 ERA.  Sabathia even managed to climb out of the ERA cellar, having needed four excellent starts to get his ERA down to 6.55 — still awful, but good enough to surrender the "lead" to Nate Robertson at 6.64, of our alleged rivals the Detroit Tigers.  (Happily, the bottom five also includes two other Tigers, Justin Verlander at 6.43 and Kenny Rogers at 5.82.)

Asdrubal Cabrera delivered a stunning series of defensive gems in a two-game stint at shortstop, but he made history when he returned to second base last night, turning just the 14th unassisted triple-play in the history of major league baseball.  Rather than save the ball for himself or for the Hall of Fame, AbaCab casually flipped the ball to some fans sitting behind the Indians dugout as he jogged in from the field — just another routine play, I guess.

Post of the week:  Okay, maybe let's start using that recommend-until-it's-green thingy.  And no, I'm not eligible, thank you.

Who fed it: Cliff Lee pitched 16 scoreless innings, starting a new streak perhaps to rival his previous 27-inning tear.  Carmona and Laffey provided another 16 scoreless innings, Carmona's in a complete game shutout, the quartet of Perez-Lewis-Julio- Breslow contributed eight more, and man, that is just a lot of scoreless innings.  Julio has been pounding on the door of the Circle of Trust, having retired 22 batters since the last time he allowed a run (April 16) while allowing just two singles and two walks.  Breslow meanwhile was fighting just to have his existence recognized, appearing in just his second game in the past four weeks.  Casey Blake had the best offensive line of the week with a 912 OPS, though that was more of a reflection on the team's hitting than anything else.  Sizemore hit another two home runs, matching his pair from last week, and has a 1063 OPS over his last dozen games.  And, well, that's about it for the hitters.  How did we ever score 12 runs in that one game?  Absolute Best:  Lee.  Relative Best:  Lee.

Who ate it:  Garko was the worst-hitting starter this week by far, with just two singles, a double and the obligatory HBP to show for 19 trips to the plate.  He bears an atrocious .140/.219/.175 line over his last 16 games, with as many strikeouts, double-plays and sac-flys (14) as times on base (also 14).  I can't tell if we're supposed to consider Francisco a bench guy or not, but if we assume that he isn't one, then the bench (Carroll, Shoppach, Marte and Tyner) was unbelievably awful this week — 4 for 43 awful, .093/.152/.093 awful — often frustrating Wedge's attempts to shuffle the lineup and give extra days off to his  struggling sluggers, i.e., half the roster.  You know who else sucks?  Rafael Betancourt, whose ERA is something around 9 since being anointed the closer, I can't even stand to look it up.  Absolute Worst:  Garko.  Relative Worst:  Betancourt.

The other guys. false alarms and open questions:   Will return next week; I kind of got sidetracked by the whole Marte thing.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Cliff Lee	.706	Rafael Betancourt	-.456
Unassisted Triple Play	.185	Kelly Shoppach	-.149
		Asdrubal Cabrera	-.127

99 years ago, Cleveland shortstop Neal Ball made the first unassisted triple play in AL history. Bill Wambsganss made the second one during the 1920 World Series. And tonight Asdrubal Cabrera made just the 14th unassisted triple play (including postseason) in MLB history. Because so much has to go right, it's an extremely rare play. But everything game together tonight. As mentioned above, the Blue Jays were desperate to score a run, so they put the runners in motion with nobody out. If Asdrubal Cabrera wasn't covering second, Lyle Overbay's line drive would have scored a run, and might have lead to a big inning. But because everything fell into place, Cabrera was in the perfect position to catch the sinking liner, though it wasn't a routine catch. But after he got up with the ball, all that remained was to tag second (to double up Kevin Mench, who took off for third) and tag Marco Scutaro (to double up Marco Scutaro, who had just arrived from first).

And the pitcher who watched Cabrera make three outs behind him? Cliff Lee, who saw his magical start to the 2008 season continue. Even with his Nintendoesque pitching stats, maintaining an ERA under 1.00 requires at least some good fortune. Besides the historic triple play, Franklin Gutierrez made a game-saving diving grab in the ninth to assure Lee of at least a no-decision. But still, Lee threw what normally would have been a shutout, striking out five, walking two, and allowing seven hits in nine innings of work. He wasn't on the top of his game; he had to work himself out of several jams, which in my mind was impressive than his first couple dominant outings. He's now pitching unpredictably, that is, using any of his pitches in any count. Lee's hot streak will inevitably end, but when it does, I don't think this new Lee will entirely disappear.

But despite the rare play and almost as rare pitching streak, Toronto finally broke through and won the game in the tenth. The Jays had had opportunities all game long, but finally capitalized off Rafael Betancourt. Two singles to open the game set the inning up; the second hit Betancourt flush just above his left elbow. After a sacrifice, leading to a intentional walk, Toronto scored the game's first run with a no-doubter sacrifice fly. The game was put away by Aaron Hill's two-run single.

 

 

 

 

Let's recap two!

 

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Fausto Carmona	.542	Jamey Carroll	-.090
Asdrubal Cabrera	.170	Ben Francisco	-.077
David Dellucci	.134	Casey Blake	-.076

In spite of some wildness, Fausto Carmona pitched a very efficient shutout in the first game of today's doubleheader. Of course, a cursory look at Fausto's basic stats (3-1, 2.95 ERA) would make you think I had confused him with Paul Byrd, but take a look at his walks and hits, and you'd be puzzled again, in this case how he'd manage that low an ERA in the first place. The Toronto offense has been in a miserable slump - until the 10th inning of the nightcap, they had only scored 1 run in the four-game series. As much as we'd love for the near-domination to be entirely due to the Tribe pitchers, the Toronto offense played a significant role in the Blue Jay offensive brownout. But in a season where he'd often be his own worst enemy, Fausto stayed in the strikezone enough to shorten his innings and finish the game.

AJ Burnett, who had awful career numbers (8.46 ERA in 4 starts) against the Indians, pitched well, keeping the game scoreless into the sixth inning. David Dellucci broke the deadlock in that inning by singling in Grady Sizemore. Burnett stuck around into the eighth, and came within one out of completing the game.

Asdrubal Cabrera accounted for the second and third runs of the game by hitting his first home run of the season. Not counting tonight's action, he's hitting poorly by any standard, but he's playing excellent defense, and more importantly, Josh Barfield isn't exactly pressing the issue. It also bears remembering that Asdrubal is only 22 years old and has just over 300 major-league plate appearances.

 

 

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Aaron Laffey	.115	Ryan Garko	-.016
Victor Martinez	.114	Ben Francisco	-.016
Grady Sizemore	.106

The pitching was excellent again, but this time, the offense was as well. Grady Sizemore lead off the game with a home run, and before the inning was over, the Indians had a 6-0 lead. Blue Jays starter Dustin McGowan had no command of his fastball, which for a team that loves fastballs was a very welcome development.

But the twelve-run outburst shouldn't overshadow what Aaron Laffey's performance. Pitching with a huge lead most of the game, Laffey still maintained his game plan of attacking the lower portion of the strike zone. The Indians haven't missed Jake Westbrook, and that isn't demeaning to Jake; Laffey's allowed just 4 earned runs in his three starts.

Asdrubal Cabrera had two hits, but his defense was what stood out tonight. Cabrera, playing at shortstop, made several nice throws going into the hole between short and third. Though Jhonny Peralta playing shortstop makes sense today, Cabrera's the future at the position.

This week:  2-3 Overall:  14-17 Scoring:  15-18 Old Mood:  5.2 New Mood:  3.1

W L % GB Minnesota 16 14 .533 - Chicago 14 16 .467 2.0 Cleveland 14 17 .452 2.5 Kansas City 14 17 .452 2.5 Detroit 14 19 .424 3.5

The series:  Hosted the Mariners (loss, win, win) and the Royals (loss, loss).

The big story:  The lineup suffered a massive power outage from every player except Sizemore, as our other 12 "hitters" combined for zero home runs, zero triples and just nine doubles over 145 at-bats — and incidentally only 11 walks over 163 plate appearances — for a .262 slugging percentage.  (The major league average last season was .422.)  Our middle infielders produced just one single in 30 at-bats.  Blake and Hafner combined for just four hits, though all were doubles, in 29 at-bats.  The other four regulars (Martinez, Garko, Gutierrez and Dellucci) went the "empty batting average" route, hitting a solid .294 but combining for just three doubles and three walks between them.

The team's curious response was to jettison Jason Michaels in favor of Ben Francisco.  Curious, because after a horrendous 3-for-33 start in the team's first 15 games, Michaels had posted an 880 OPS over the past 16 games and was not part of the team's problems in any visible way.  Curious, because Michaels has a very team-friendly contract.  Curious, because Francisco had gotten off to an equally slow start in Buffalo and had made less of a rebound.  Curious, because the two players bring a very similar mix of skills to the roster.  Curious, because most in the industry expect Francisco to be a role-player or fringe everyday player, just like Michaels.

Curious, in sum, because it's not clear the Indians have done anything at all except replace one face with another, and usually, that kind of superficial move is reserved for the manager's job.  But, you know, they say you can't start a fire without a spark.  I guess.  Whatever.

In other news:  The rest of the rotation also continued to dominate, allowing just one earned run all week before the 7th inning, capped off by Aaron Laffey, who tossed an even better Sunday gem than he did last week, making the Indians look smart for not taking an easy chance to skip his turn in the rotation.  Paul Byrd continued a totally unpublicized four-game tear in which he's given up four home runs but only six runs total, and just one walk total, averaging 6.6 IP with a 1.71 ERA.  Garko more or less broke out of a hellacious 0-for-24 slump.  Wedge seethed a lot.  Betancourt was less than inspiring, failing to record a scoreless appearance in three tries.

Meanwhile, over on the Bizarro Planet, Cliff Lee was untouchable for six more innings before finally ending his un-scored-upon streak at 28 innings — giving up a three-run bomb, reducing his outing to a mere quality start, and ballooning his ERA all the way up to 0.96, still easily the best in the majors this season.  Like two regressions passing in the night, Sabathia's start was eerily similar to Lee's, beginning with six scoreless innings and ending with three straight hits to start the 7th.  Sabathia pitched well overall but still owns the league's worst ERA at 7.51.

Post of the week:  Maybe I need to rethink this.

Who fed it:  Byrd pitched the best game of the week, allowing just four singles and one walk.  Two of those five baserunners were erased trying to steal second, and none of them ever reached second.  Byrd retired the leadoff batter in all eight innings, and only two batters reached base with less than two outs.  Laffey was nearly as good in his start, allowing just one unearned run on four singles and two walks.  Sizemore busted out a 1311 OPS, including as many extra bases (nine) as the rest of the roster combined, and as many walks (five) as the four corner positions plus DH and catcher.  Perez had an odd but successful week, at one point earning a "Hold" without facing a single batter; he faced four batters over three other games, producing three groundballs and one flyball, resulting in a single and three outs.  Jensen Lewis allowed no hits and one walk over 4.1 innings, and Tom Mastny struck out one guy and allowed another to reach on a groundball error, the only two batters he's faced in the last 19 days. Absolute Best:  Sizemore.  Relative Best:  Byrd.

Honorable mention:  in his final start as an Indian (and only start of the week), Jason Michaels hit a double and a sac fly.  The next day, he scored the 11th inning game-winner as a pinch-runner in his final game here.  Not as dramatic as a farewell home run, but a fitting send-off for a role player who always seemed to be working his ass off out there.

Who ate it:  It's been feast-or-famine almost every week for Peralta, and this week, it was an all-out 0-for-13 famine.  Cabrera was nearly as bad at 1-for-16.  Blake's strikeouts (six) were double his times on base (three); he's played every inning of the last nine games, producing a line of .100/.206/.167.  Betancourt, filling in capably for Borowski, yielded two home runs and four singles while retiring only five batters.  Hafner hit two doubles in one game but went 0-for-10 in three others; he's struck out 14 times in his last 56 trips to the plate, hitting just four singles and four doubles and drawing only five walks for a line of .167/.250/.250.  Breslow totally crapped the bed in his only appearance in the last 19 days.  Absolute Worst:  Peralta.  Relative Worst:  Betancourt.

The other guys:    The Twins surged while the White Sox struggled and the Tigers scuffled.  The division more than ever looks like it will go to any team that can manage anything close to 90 wins, as the Tigers' pitching and the Indians' hitting look no more likely to come together than the White Sox or Twins going on a big flukey run.

False alarms:

• Not one single hitter having a good year by his own standards.
  
• Betancourt, terrible.
• Roger Clemens, apologizing for something.
• Not one formidable opponent in the AL Central.

Open questions:

• Can the starters walk on water long enough for the lineup to regroup and win a few games?
  
• Is there something fundamentally wrong with the organizational approach to hitting, and how long can Derek Shelton keep his job?
  
• When Cliff Lee returns to reality, what will that look like?
  
• Which teams are really in the AL Central race, anyway?
• Just how bad will the game have to be going before we see Mastny or Breslow again, and how bad will they be after a 15-day layoff?
• Too soon to write Laffey's name into our starting rotation plans, 2009-2013?
  
• Can Betancourt regain anything remotely resembling his 2007 dominance for any amount of time, or will he scuffle back-and-forth all season as he did in 2006?
• Is Jensen Lewis back on track, sort of?
• How many relievers would have to be failing completely for Adam Miller to get the call to the big-league bullpen?  Do we even want to see him there?
• Could Sowers be on the block soon?
• Could the Indians really consider Marte more or less expendable and Blake more or less untouchable?
• Really?

 

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Paul Byrd	.540	David Dellucci	-.248
Asdrubal Cabrera	.479	Rafael Betancourt	-.182
Travis Hafner	.233	Casey Blake	-.152

This was one of those game which would have been devastating had the Indians not won it. Paul Byrd pitched into the eighth inning, allowing no runs. Of course, the Indians only had a one-run lead, but there was only the matter of Rafael Betancourt pitching the ninth. Right?

Well, the run wasn't really due to Betancourt's pitching. Ichiro singled to start the inning, but after that it was the Cleveland defense that pushed the run home. Betancourt first threw a wild pitch, which if you've seen Rafael pitch you'd be shocked at. Then Ichiro attempted to steal third, and Victor Martinez got off a good throw. Too bad we'll never know if he would have thrown Ichiro out or not, since Casey Blake didn't catch the throw. The ball went down the third base line, and just like that the game was tied. Victor's feed was slightly off-center, and Blake tried to catch and tag in the same motion. Even if Ichio is safe, he's still on third, and given how both offenses hit, it was not a given that they'd get the runner in with less than two outs.

So the game went to extra innings. Enter Masa Kobayashi, who on the first pitch of the inning grooved a fastball to Richie Sexson, Now the Indians were down 2-1, and Seattle closer JJ Putz started to warm in the bullpen. The same guy who lead baseball in WXRL  last season (Betancourt was second). As it turned, it wasn't a good game to be a very good reliever, for Putz struck out Travis Hafner to start the inning, but then allowed three straight base runners to load the bases. Then he walked Grady Sizemore to force in a run and the tie the game. He struck out Casey Blake and David Dellucci to extend the game, though.

The Indians won the game in the eleventh in a similar fashion off of Mark Lowe and Sean Green. After Victor Martinez flied out, Jhonny Peralta walked, Travis Hafner doubled against the no-doubles defense, and Jamey Carroll reached via a HBP. This time, however, the big play came with two outs. Franklin Gutierrez struck out, leaving everyone to gnash their teeth at the probability that the Indians would leave the bases loaded again. But Asdrubal Cabrera lined a single to right and those depressing thoughts evaporated quickly away.

 

This week:  2-5 Overall:  7-12 Scoring:  25-30 Old Mood:  4.8 New Mood:  2.9

W L % GB Chicago 11 7 .611 - Kansas City 9 10 .474 2.5 Minnesota 9 10 .474 2.5 Cleveland 7 12 .368 4.5 Detroit 7 13 .350 5.0

The series:  Hosted the Red Sox (loss, loss) and Tigers (loss, win) and visited the Twins (win, loss, loss).

The big story:  We got six quality starts out of seven, but our offense got exactly one win out of those six quality starts.  These weren't borderline quality starts, either – in each of the six, the starter either made it into the 7th inning or gave up less than 2 runs, and in three out of six, he did both.  Five regulars put up averages under .170 while only one hit better than .250 – but they maddeningly continued to draw walks, drawing the fifth-most this week in the AL despite apparently not being able to hit.  The Indians were only outscored by five runs on the week but managed to distribute their runs badly, winning two games by 14 runs and losing five games by 19 runs.  The net result is that the Indians missed an opportunity to get a little distance in the standings from the Tigers, joining them in the cellar instead, and fans are forced to start wondering just how inevitable a crash is for first-place Chicago.

In other news:  Sabathia and Borowski, nominally our #1 starter and reliever respectively, further bombed out.  Already the worst starter in baseball entering the week, Sabathia gave up his second nine-spot in a week's time, one of just two pitchers to give up more than six runs in a game, twice, in 2008 – and his co-honoree Tom Gorzellany has an ERA more than four runs lower.  Borowski, meanwhile, failed in such spectacular and obvious fashion – struggling to throw a  fastball over 80 mph – that many felt relieved to see such his agonizing career as Indians closer end swiftly (at least for the moment) by a trip to the DL for "noodle-like symptoms."  It turned out that Borowski's giddyup deficit was well known to the staff, which raised questions as to why he was allowed to attempt to close four games.  Sabathia and Borowski's struggles led directly to five of our 12 losses this season, and we survived Sabathia's Opening Day blowout and nearly overcame another on April 11.  So it's not wishful thinking to believe that even with all the team's other problems, we'd probably be 11-8 right now had these two pitchers not failed so profoundly.

Lee continued his improbable run as the game's most effective pitcher, leading the majors in RA, ERA and FIP.   Byrd made a more or less unheralded return to form this week with two very fine starts, while Carmona quieted fears following last week's  nine-walk adventure.  Hafner hit a game-winning home run but otherwise struggled to keep his OPS over 700, as Indians fans start to wonder if we haven't even seen him hit rock-bottom yet.   Perez bounced back from a shellacking the previous weekend to pitch effectively in four games, but he was finally touched for a run on his 11th batter of the game yesterday, his first game facing more than 9 batters since moving out of long relief last June.  Despite being tagged with a loss yesterday, he actually made great strides toward re-asserting himself as an 8th-inning ace.

Post of the week:  Now taking nominations.

Who fed it:  Byrd pitched far better than your typical #5 starter, giving up just one run over 13 IP in two starts.  Lee put up eight innings of two-hit, shutout ball and fans looked on in disbelief.  Victor surged back with a 12-for-27 week, but his searing .444 average was a little empty, accompanied by just one walk and one extra-base hit, a double.  Carroll continued to perform well in a supporting role, supplementing his .200 average with a beefy .500 secondary average and his usual fine defensive play.  Perez was unlucky on base hits but overall very effective over four games and 4.2 IP, allowing just one walk and no extra-base hits to go with 6 K's – 11 groundballs, 3 flyballs and just one line drive.  Absolute Best:  Lee.  Relative Best:  Byrd. 

Who ate it:  Sabathia and Borowski were complete disasters – although in fairness, Sabathia's ERA for the week (20.25) was twice as good as Borowski's (40.50) .  While many hitters were terrible, nothing was more awful than Peralta's slugging average of .136, or more disappointing than Sizemore's overall line of .160/.300/.240, or more troubling than Hafner's overall line of .167/.259/.333.  Stomp Lewis had two miserable outings out of two, lucky to give up only two runs to Boston after allowing two doubles and two walks in the two-run loss, and allowing two walks before getting just one out a few nights later.  Absolute Worst:  Peralta.  Relative Worst:  Borowski.

The other guys:  Indians pitchers got mugged pretty good by Manny, Lugo and Pedroia for the Red Sox, as well as Renteria, Cabrera and Inge for the Tigers, but nobody inflicted as much damage as Youkilis, who collected a walk, a single, three doubles and a home run in just two games, good for a 2075 OPS.   Ortiz produced an empty 3-for-10, 600 OPS, and needed some luck even to do that well.  Pudge went 0-for-6, stranding ten, in a game where his teammates were teeing off on Indians pitchers to the tune of 11 runs.  Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez, both 22-year-olds acquired in the offseason, combined for just one single and one walk in 23 AB.  On the other side, the Indians dispatched Verlander, Lester and Liriano handily only to get manhandled by the utterly unheralded Armanda Galarraga and Nick Blackburn, plus the somewhat heralded Scott Baker.  The Indians put up a five-spot on Detroit's Zach Miner to seal their one strong offensive game, but against Boston, Papelbon and Okajima each sealed a two-run victory with a two-strikeout perfect final frame.

False alarms:

• Paul Byrd as an excellent starter.
  
• Sabathia being the worst pitcher in the game.
• Borowski being sent in to close a game.
  
• Perez looking rough.
  

Open questions:

• Can we turn it around quickly enough that we don't dig a 2006-sized hole for ourselves in the standings?
  
• Since any blogger writing in his/her parents' basement in his/her underwear can speculate on whether C.C.'s contract situation is distracting him, what exactly do we need newspaper columnists for?
• Too soon to start the Cy watch for Cliff Lee?
• How long can Byrd keep it together?
• How long can Sabathia keep it apart?
• What kind of production will the team consider acceptable from AbaCab? 
  
• Why are the Indians so strangely unwilling to play Blake in LF or RF, which would allow them to give Marte playing time in lieu of Micheals and sometimes Gutierrez?
• Is there anything more to the lack of playing time for Marte, other than his just being low-man on the totem pole to start the season?
  
• How much playing time will Carroll siphon from Peralta and especially AbaCab, and will his performance hold up given more exposure?
  
• Will Borowski ever return to the active roster, and if so, in what role?
• Kobayashi, Breslow, Julio – seriously, can these guys pitch?
  

 

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
David Dellucci	.069	CC Sabathia	-.363
Bob Feller*	.000	Travis Hafner	-.036
Carlos Baerga*	.000	Jhonny Peralta	-.029

The best thing about this game is that it ended.

What can you say about CC Sabathia's outing, other than heading to the local digital thesaurus and listing all the synonyms of horrible, ghastly, and other assorted epithets? 13 baserunners, nine runs, all of them earned, just one strikeout, and thousands of disturbed scalps across Northeast Ohio. The same guy who won the Cy Young Award last season has given up 27 runs in 18 innings pitched. The same pitcher who was getting at least $150M at the end of the season is currently the worst pitcher in baseball.**

And of course getting shut down by a 26-year-old pitcher making his second major-league start needs mentioned. On normal days this would be the recap's top rant, but hey, it was up against stiff competition. Yesterday one could at least mention the missed opportunities for the offense, today we don't even have that to lament. David Dellucci hit his first home run of the season, and he's actually been one of the better hitters in the lineup. Asdrubal Cabrera has been an offensive non-entity, Jason Michaels has 3 hits on the year, and Casey Blake has a .450 OPS.

*Both were guests during the STO broadcast; needless to say, they were much more interesting than anything happening on the field.

**No, i didn't check to see if anyone's been worse than Sabathia; if you all know it's true, what's the point in actually proving it?

Game Eight: Indians 4, Angels 3  

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Pronk	.537	Jamey Carroll	-.174
Jake Westbrook	.173	Victor Martinez	-.136
Asdrubal Cabrera	.110	Franklin Gutierrez	-.125

Jake Westbrook again pitched extremely well, and this time, he got the victory. Jake gave up three runs on seven hits, but threw nine innings on only 95 pitches. Only in the sixth inning did he face more than four hitters.

He was able to pitch the ninth thanks to Pronk's ninth inning two-run homer. Both Francisco Rodriguez and Scot Shields were unable to pitch, leaving Justin Speier to attempt the save. Speier got the first two hitters easily enough, but Asdrubal Cabrera coaxed a two-out walk, bringing up Hafner, who crushed one out to right field. If you're interested, that home run was worth .712 in WPA.

---

Game Nine: Angels 9, Indians 5

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Kelly Shoppach	.082	Paul Byrd	-.306
Grady Sizemore	.023	Asdrubal Cabrera	-.082
David Dellucci	.014	Travis Hafner	-.082

Compared to Jake Westbrook's performance the night before, Paul Byrd looked like an emergency callup. Byrd again couldn't spot his pitches, and was thrashed by the Angels. Byrd was brutally honest after his three-inning outing:

"I haven't had my command at all," Byrd said. "I haven't had very good stuff, either. To pitch up here, you have to have one of the two, for sure. I have neither right now."

Of course, Byrd's stuff isn't really that good, at least good enough to for him to get  away with it being in the wrong location. Fausto Carmona can miss his spot and still get an out or a swinging strike. If Byrd misses his location and the pitch usually gets hit hard.

The offense was much better, and actually brought the Indians back into the game for a time. The Tribe had 12 hits, which for early 2008 was an outburst. Kelly Shoppach and Jhonny Peralta both homered, and four Indians had multi-hit games. Travis Hafner followed up his heroics the night before with an 0-4 with two strikeouts.

My real prediction:  Another long season for Tigers fans.

I learned something from my post yesterday, from the way it not only didn't provoke much discussion, it actually seemed to chill discussion everywhere on the site.  It just seemed to trigger the latent resignation that flows in our veins as Cleveland fans.  Maybe I've should have known better, maybe I thought your intelligence would kick in, maybe I owe you an apology.

But people ... how could you fall for that?

Have you forgotten who and what this team really is?

The guys who went 96-66, the best record in baseball.

The guys who played through snow-outs, who played three home openers and won all three.

The guys who set the tone early by sweeping the Tigers in Detroit.

The guys with the best and deepest rotation, the most dominant 1-2 punch, the Cobra, the best big three, and the goddam Cy Young winner.

The guys who beat the best pitcher in the game five times in one season, when no other team had ever beat him three times.

These guys.

The guys who stalled out in June and July but never collapsed, and the guys who charged back to dominate down the stretch.

The guys who took a surging Twins team, coming off a 9-3 run and threatening to get back in the race, and swept them both home and way, six wins over ten days , to end their season.

The guys who unceremoniously booted the Tigers out of the race with yet another sweep, sending them 7.5 games back when they could have been 1.5 games back.  That's the photo at the top, the first game of that series, Casey Blake with the walkoff in the 11th.

The guys who delivered a vicious beatdown to the Yankees in the playoffs, chilling and silencing a Yankee Stadium crowd.  The guys who – let's just put it out there – nearly sent the best team in the game home early.

The guys with the fists.

The guys with the grit.

And the clutch.

And yes, the guys who know all about pi ... and all about pie.

(Purely as an aside, when you do an image search for Chris Antonetti, one of the first results to pop up is this, which I take as just further proof that people must really, really love being a part of the Indians organization.)

Yeah, that's right ... those guys.  You love those guys, remember?  And they're more or less awesome, remember?

Those guys are back.  Those guys have gotten better.

Those guys are going to win this year, and this is why.

1. Pure talent.  Seriously, did you really think the Tigers had more pure talent than the Indians?  Sure, the Tigers had some injuries, but they had a bunch of fluke seasons, and all it got them was 88 wins.  They had to import Miguel Cabrera just to try to close the gap.
   
   Let me tell you about a difference in talent.  On our club, we make Cliff Lee fight and practically grovel for the last spot in the rotation.  On their club, they trade for "the Cliff Lee of the NL" and hand him the #3 starter job.  When your #7 starter is about as good as their #3, that isn't just us having depth, it's them being in trouble.
   
   People ... half our roster was born in the 80's.  We aren't on the wrong side of 30, we're on the right side of 28.  Our roster is younger, less injury prone, and full of guys who could take small or large steps forward.  Garko or even Peralta could hit 30 home runs, and Sizemore could make a run at an MVP.  Our catcher created 109 runs last season, theirs only 59 – and our guy is 29, while theirs is 36.
   
   The Indians won 96 games last season, and our players as a group are on the rise.  The Tigers won 88 games last season, and their players on the whole are in decline.  MIguel Cabrera isn't enough to close that gap, and they traded most of their best young talent to get him.  The Tigers may have a hair more raw talent than the Indians on their roster, but too much of that talent is old and breaking down.
   
   
2. Regression is a bitch ... for the other guys.  It's the most clear-cut, powerful and undeniable force in baseball – stronger than the age curve and more reliable than platoon splits.  The Tigers may seem poised to bounce back from a down year, but their 88 wins were propped up by a number of flukey career seasons, while our 96 wins by and large were not.
   
   Just look at the BABIP for the two teams' regulars.  The bottom of the list is Sheffield, who wasn't so much unlucky as he was playing hurt.  Then there's Hafner, who definitely suffered some bad luck even if that wasn't his only problem.  Then there's Inge, who won't be a factor, and Victor, who will.  Check it out:  Victor put up downballot-MVP type numbers despite hitting into some of the worst luck on either team.  It would be hard to bet on him improving on 2007, but his luck probably will.
   
   Now look at the top of the list – Ordoñez at .381, Granderson at .360, Polanco at .346, compared with their career marks of .314, .344 and .314.   And not even listed there – Renteria at .375, against a career mark of .322.  The snapback to reality on these guys is going to be enormous – PECOTA is mean-projecting a 56-run drop in production from Ordoñez alone – essentially negating the upgrade from Inge to Cabrera – to go with a 40-run drop for Granderson and a 30-run drop for Renteria.
   
   In fairness, PECOTA predicts every player to drop after a good season, but this is an extreme case.  Granderson production rate is not expected to fall off much – he will be 27 after all – but then again, Sizemore's high-looking .333 BABIP is actually below his career average, meaning he too was slightly unlucky, and Hafner also is a good bet to improve at least somewhat on 2007.  As for the Tigers, their best bounceback candidate is a 39-year-old who's missed 150 games over the past two seasons.
   
   So regression is a bitch for the TIgers, who won't score 900 runs this season, let alone 1000.  But for the Indians, regression helps our lineup and work out about even in the rotation, where stellar seasons from Sabathia and Carmona were evenly matched by trainwrecks from Lee, Sowers and Westbrook.
   
   And you know who else is due for some good luck with the balls in play?  Joe Borowski.
   
   
3. Stellar depth.  Another one I can't believe you fell for.  How many teams have Josh Barfield as their 4th middle infielder, or Ben Francisco as their 6th outfielder, or Andy Marte as a backup third baseman, or Jeremy Sowers as their 7th starter, or Tom Mastny as their 9th reliever?  I'll tell you how many, none.  Every one of those guys would be playing in many other teams' lineups, rotations and bullpens.  It's totally ridiculous, and it's a great advantage, and it will absolutely matter this year, as it matters every year for almost every team.
   
   
4. Stellar youth.  Of course young players are inconsistent, but they improve more often than they decline.  Our youngest and least experienced key players will start at 2B and RF this season.  Any risk there is strongly mitigated by the fact that for both players, much of their value is in their exceptional defense, which is far more predictable.  And besides, the bar is incredibly low for each – the chance that we'll get less production out of those two positions in 2008 than we did in 2007 is practically nil.
   
   
5. Babied arms.  We have the best medical staff in the game, and they know how to protect pitchers.  Case in point:  Westbrook has never been more effective than in the second half last season, and this Spring he looked even better.  Carmona is going to be fine, he breezed economically through almost every start last year, hardly ever pitching under stress.  C.C. may show a little wear, but it won't break us.  And as for the other guys, who cares?  Our guys break down less than on any other team, and besides, we've got that stellar depth, too.
   
   
6. Wacky bullpens – not a problem.  You don't ever really know about bullpens.  Some years they collapse, some years they're stellar.  Here's the thing though ... last year, our bullpen collapsed and was stellar.  Just look at the body count:  Foulke, Oldberto, Matt Miler, J.D., Fernando – and most of the flame-outs were happening while Sowers, Lee and Westbrook were struggling to get into the 4th inning.
   
   That's enough to break most teams' bullpens, which in turn is enough to break most teams – but not the Indians.  They planned ahead, stocked up.  Spent most of the decade acquiring and developing arms, then picked up four veterans in the offseason – and they took good care of Rafael Betancourt.  That gave them a full boat of experienced guys in Cleveland, plus 4-5 young guys on the brink in Buffalo – plus Jensen Lewis in Akron.
   
   So despite all the flame-outs, the Indians finished with the 6th best bullpen ERA in the majors – not only didn't the bullpen sink the Indians, it was actually a strength.  The Indians keep 21 pitchers on the 40-man roster for just 12 big-league jobs, and this is the reason why.
   
   And now they've done it again, picking up Kobayashi, Julio, and Breslow to replace Oldberto, Miller and Fultz.  And this year, we've got Perez and Lewis taking the place of two multi-year head-scratchers.  And young'uns Mastny, Mujica, Santos and Stevens in Buffalo.  And who's to say we won't have another surprise breakout like Lewis' last year – Scott Lewis?  J.D. Martin?  Tony Sipp?  Adam Mller?  It's not that any one of these guys is likely to contribute, but the Indians have a ton of pitchers in various states of development and repair, and they basically never trade any.  At some point, it becomes more likely than not that one or more will contribute, even from the rehab bin.
   
   The Indians start off with a strong bullpen, full of guys with strong track records and hard-to-hit stuff, and it's considerably more stocked than Detroit's .  But more than that, the Indians are very well prepared for the inevitable struggles, injuries and flame-outs, and the Tigers are not prepared at all.  Wacky bullpens can sink almost any team, but they'll have a lot of trouble sinking these Indians.
   
   
7. Good timing.  Wedge finally figured out how to beat Pythagoras last season, so we're all good now.
   
   
8. That guy, finally.  It's an even-numbered year, and that can only mean one thing:  Miller Time.  I don't know if it'll be in the bullpen or the rotation, but Atom Miller will be healthy this year, and that means a bunch of big-league hitters are going to be striking out.
   
   
9. Lack of Vizquel, Thome, Manny, Millwood, and soon Sabathia, too.  It may be strange to say that losing Sabathia is part of why we'll win, but it is.  This team, as much or as any team in professional sports, is run by grownups.  They respect players, and their affection is palpable, but when it comes to making decisions, they leave their sentimentality at the door.  They don't kid themselves – they know you can find great insights in statistical analysis, but they know it doesn't have all the answers.  They're rigorous.  They're pros.  They've avoided the Big Mistake that sinks the season – or multiple seasons.  And they've never, ever made decisions based on trying to save face with the fans.
   
   They've built a great team with that approach, and I'll tell you just one more thing about them ...
   
   
10. Grit.  Dammit, I'm telling you these guys got a lot of grit.  Victor's got grit.  Shoppach is brimming with grit.  Sizemore will be diving in the outfield when he's 50.  Stomp Lewis has to take medication just to keep his grit under control.  Borowski has nothing but grit, but he'd never complain about that, because he's so damned gritty.  Betancourt, he's got all that and a bag of grit.
    
    And our much-maligned left field platoon, Dellucci and Michaels, those guys've got more grit than most entire rosters.  You people should be worshipping at their gritty, clutchy, diving, ass-slapping feet.
    
    And what I'm trying to tell you here, and I don't even know if it's right or natural or legal, but ... Diamondview's got grit.  I don't know how they did it, but they got grit into the Diamondview somehow, and now it's spitting out chemistry and intangibles and That Elusive It Factor along with the usual performance projections and market undervaluations.  We've never seen anything like it, but I'm telling you ... Diamondview's got grit.
    
    And by the way ... Scott Elarton?  Tom Mastny?  Ben Francisco?  That's right, even our depth has grit, which means that even our grit has depth.  If somebody gritty were to go down – and they often do, because that comes with playing the game the right way, you know – we've got someone else ready to step in and play just as gritty – someone gritty enough to start on most teams.  It's totally out of control.  It's enough to make Darin Erstad retire and Joe Morgan's head explode.

So let me sum it up for you.  We've got the talent, the timing, the grit, the smarts, the chemistry and the momentum.  We've got everything worth having on a ballclub, and the only question to be settled is whether we're the best team in the game or merely the best in our division.

It's our year.  And it starts today.