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Making Sense of the Market

If you love big trades, this offseason is for you.

In the past couple of days, Carlos Delgado, Jim Thome, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, and (possibly) Juan Pierre have changed teams.

The most important deal from the Indians' standpoint was Thome going to Chicago for Aaron Rowand and two top prospects. The Indians were reportedly in contention for Thome, offering Coco Crisp and David Riske for Thome and OF Jason Michaels. If those details are correct, the Indians' offer was pretty good from a player standpoint; Crisp is younger and cheaper than Rowand, and Riske for Michaels would give the Phillies some help in the bullpen for a fourth outfielder.

(Commence train-of-thought speculation)

I think a lot of signs point to the Indians dealing David Riske if they can get an outfielder or a starting pitcher in return. Even if you assume Matt Miller won't be available, the Indians have pretty good depth in the setup roles between Rhodes, Cabrera, Sauerbeck, and Betancourt. If they do sign BJ Ryan or another closer, then they'd have five spots accounted for (again, assuming that Miller is injured). Probably one of the remaining spots would go to a longman (Brian Tallet, Jason Davis, etc). So if there's one area the Indians could deal from, it's the bullpen.

Right now the Indians have a lot of pieces in place, but a couple don't really seem to fit. What, for instance, will they do with Jason Dubois, who's right-handed and has good power potential, but is below-average in the outfield and has a difficult time adjusting to major-league pitching? What about Brandon Phillips, who appears blocked at second and short, and is out of options? What do they do with Ben Broussard if they do bring in a first baseman? Will Ryan Garko be that first baseman?

On the closer front, Billy Wagner will probably be setting the market soon when he chooses between the Mets and the Phillies. After Wagner signs, the rest of the closers should sign fairly quickly, including BJ Ryan.

Kevin Millwood is probably going to take his sweet time deciding where to go, so perhaps solving the closer question first is a way for Shapiro to put out one fire quickly before addressing the other major issues. I think going hard after Brian Giles is a better tack than after Ryan, but maybe Shapiro feels there's a better chance of landing Ryan than Giles. Ryan apparently likes the situation in Cleveland, where he'd be the closer, and away from the East Coast media circuses.

There's no doubt in my mind that Ryan is an excellent closer, and probably a better value than Billy Wagner, the only better stopper on the market,but I don't really like spending that kind of money on a 60-70 inning pitcher. But then again, look at what's out there among outfielders and starters.

(End train-of-thought speculation)

I've said this several times before, but going the trade route may be the best course of action IF the Indians want to fill all their needs this offseason. They might be able sign BJ Ryan or Brian Giles, but not both.

0 recs  |  Comment 28 comments

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Re: Making Sense of the Market
Interesting, especially the part about us offering Riske and Coco. Maybe Shapiro IS serious about Ryan and his thinking is signing Ryan at $8M a year and trading Riske only costs us about $5M and gives us a good trade chip. As much as I love Riske and his long-term potential, if Wedge isn't going to use him, it makes sense to trade him. Either way, this offer for Thome tells me that Riske is going somewhere in a deal for a bat or a starter. If we do trade him, I'd like to see us offer him to Arizona in a package for Javy Vazquez. Would anyone really be upset if we let Wickman, Howry, Millwood, and Riske go so we could bring in Vazquez and Ryan? Seems pretty good to me.

Kos

by Kos on Nov 24, 2005 1:27 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
Yeah, I'd be fairly happy if that scenario happens.

Look at it this way (projected 2006 salaries):

Ryan ($8M) replaces Wickman ($5M)
Vazquez ($9M) replaces Millwood ($12M)
Cabrera ($300K) replaces Howry ($4M)
Brown ($300K) replaces Riske ($2.5M)

If this situation happens, I doubt the Indians have much money left over to upgrade in the outfield unless they pull off a trade. But I could live with that if they get Ryan and Vazquez.

by Ryan on Nov 24, 2005 1:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
I really like that Vazquez is due only $18M over two years, and Ryan would probably only cost us $24M over three years. Millwood, Wickman, Howry, Riske, Elarton, and Hernandez combined to make about $14M last year. Ryan and Vazquez would cost $17M a year to replace them. Personally, I think it's worth it. We can then have Blake, Dubois, and Broussard (if he sticks around) split time between RF and 1B. Blake could also fill in for Boone from time to time, and Garko could be ready to go by mid-season. So what do you think we could put together for Vazquez? Something like Riske, Tadano, and Snyder? They'd be able to spin Riske if they didn't want him, and they could probably get a decent amount for him.

Kos

by Kos on Nov 24, 2005 2:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
I don't see what the Indians would have gained from the Crisp/Riske for Thome/Michaels swap.

Michaels is a nice player in his own right, very underrated, but no more productive or cheaper than Crisp.  The Indians would still have Casey Blake stuck in right field.  

And who knows how much of the contract Cleveland would have had to pick up.

I don't like that deal at all...

Notice how teams are being forced to eat very little of their bad contracts (Cameron, Delgado, Thome).  Honestly, only paying half of Thome's deal AND getting rowand and two top prospects is a nice return.

If the Reds will bite (which I doubt since Riske is a free agent in one year), Austin Kearns would look great in right field. Did I mention he's cheap?  I'm sure every team is in on Kearns, though.

by rick on Nov 24, 2005 2:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
See, I don't like this scenario at all.  $17 million to Ryan and Vazquez?  

I thought we learned not to type up $18 million in 70-inning pitchers last off season.  As for Vazquez, I don't know about guys who couldn't cut it (at all) in the Bronx and now are demanding trades.  

I agree with Ryan.  Giles has never looked better.  Has someone offered him a 4th year yet?  I'd rather see 3 for $30MM to Giles if someone hasn't offered that much yet.  

by cheech99 on Nov 25, 2005 10:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
BTW, I just remembered that Riske is a free agent after this season, so I'm sure that gives Shapiro even more incentive to deal him now. He's coming off a pretty excellent season where his manager didn't use him in late situations, and his value probably won't be higher in July than it is right now. I guess it IS the right time to deal him. Good thinking, Shapiro.

Kos

by Kos on Nov 24, 2005 1:36 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

howry a cub
it has been reported that howry has signed on with the cubbies for only $4 mill a year.  seems like we could have offered that, and there's no guarantee he would close there.

by brad on Nov 24, 2005 3:21 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
i also saw of note that the phillies are going to pay 22 of thome's remaining 46 mil.

so the sox get him for 24 mill over 3 years?  not too shabby.  but of course there's no indication that thome can stay healthy. and even though he still gets the love of the hometown because of his aww shucks persona, he's no better than manny or albert  or anyone that bolted for bucks.

by brad on Nov 24, 2005 3:27 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
The White Sox essentially just signed Thome to a 3 year, $22M deal.

Would any team have done that this offseason? Not likely.

Plus, they had to give up their gold glove caliber center fielder AND two of their top prospects.

I'm not saying Thome won't be productive for them...
but why not just stick with Frank Thomas for one year and 1)not assume the risk of Thome 2)not assume three years of Thome at that price 3)not lose your starting center fielder 4)not give up two of your best prospects

by rick on Nov 24, 2005 4:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
This was done because Ken Williams is an idiot. He could have easily waited until January to do this, but he wanted to do it now in case Konerko bolts. Honestly, who were the ChiSox bidding against here? They probably could have offered Rowand for Thome and $25M the day before the Super Bowl and had it accepted. When Stand Pat Gillick takes you for a ride, you flat out suck as a GM.

Kos

by Kos on Nov 24, 2005 8:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
Thank you!  I thought I was the only one thinking like that ...

by Jay on Nov 24, 2005 9:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
whoa. I don't understand you guys. I believe Thome is a great value for 7 mil a year for the next 3 years. When healthy he is better than Konerko, and will cost 5 mil less per year (and only 3 years). Am I the only one pissed off that the Phillies completely overpay for Thome and take him from the tribe, then turn around and give our rivals 22 mil to take him off their hands?

by oxforddave on Nov 24, 2005 9:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
Even if he's healthy and productive, he's probably going to decline a bit and have to DH at least 125 games next year. Plus, Chicago gave up their CF (who they could have spun somewhere else for a good amount) and two of their top prospects. Even if they really wanted Thome, they could have just waited two or three months and paid less to get him. It was just another case of Ken Williams being an idiot. I'm not saying picking up Thome is a bad move, but if they had waited, they could have given up less to get Thome.

Kos

by Kos on Nov 24, 2005 9:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
Well, the White Sox did give up a very valuable player in Aaron Rowand and two of their best pitching prospects. So the Phillies didn't exactly give him away.

by Ryan on Nov 24, 2005 9:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
uhh, lest anyone forget, Thome will give you 30-40 HR and likely an OBP of .370. Those are big numbers. Huge. Brian Anderson is ready to step into CF, so Rowand is expendable (unlike the tribe, who if they trade crisp have no one to step into LF, heck they have no one to play RF right now). Who else could they trade him for? Lyle Overbay? Yeah, like he will hit close to Thome. Big scary hitters who can win ball games are worth every penny.

What is the problem with Kenny Williams? He sure looks like a very good GM to me. Picked up Contreras and Freddy Garcia for peanuts. Grabbed Jenks of off waivers. Signed Tuguchi and Dye. Yeah the Podsineck deal looks silly, but that had alot to do about dollars. Oh yeah, I think the white sox won the world series with a team he built.

This is a gamble for the white sox. Thome's back could blow out. But Kenny Williams is a smart enough man to realize the white sox will not repeat without upgrading their offense, and he is willing to pull the trigger. I wish he didn't. Huge upgrade over jurassic.

Prediction: if the tribe is unable to sign Giles, they will trade crisp for manny (with dollars going to the tribe, and other prospect(s) for the redsox). If the tribe is willing to put crisp on the market for a DH/1B, they will put him on the market for one of the best hitters in baseball. I'm not sure I would like that sort of deal (and I am the biggest trade for manny boosters out there), but maybe Shapiro feels that Crisp's value has peaked.

by oxforddave on Nov 24, 2005 11:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
Okay, let's try this again. Disregard the deal itself. I'm not focusing on that. Instead, think about it this way: no one else was really in the running for Thome, so Ken Williams should have held out and let the price drop. He outbid himself. It's like buying a shirt for $50 today when you know it's going on sale for $40 tomorrow. It's purely impatience.

BTW, can we please stop talking about how Ken Williams is great because the White Sox won the World Series? Ken Williams traded Carlos Lee SO he could sign Jermaine Dye. That is stupid. The Contreras trade was offered by Cashman because the Yankees are impatient, so I won't give Ken credit. They gave up a fair amount for Garcia, though I personally liked the deal and felt it was one of the few good moves Williams made in the last five years. Jenks could be good, but the guy had control problems and was a head case in AAA for Anaheim. It was more good coaching than a good GM pickup. And Iguchi has to be the most overhyped player on the team. He has no range at 2B, and his 3.3 WARP pretty much shows you that Ozzie and the media make him look better than he really is. The only other pickup by Williams that I liked was the Uribe for Aaron Miles trade, and I still can't give him credit for that because Dan O'Dowd and the Rockies are clueless, and anyone could have told you that Miles sucked.

Kos

by Kos on Nov 24, 2005 11:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
Prediction: if the tribe is unable to sign Giles, they will trade crisp for manny (with dollars going to the tribe, and other prospect(s) for the redsox). If the tribe is willing to put crisp on the market for a DH/1B, they will put him on the market for one of the best hitters in baseball. I'm not sure I would like that sort of deal (and I am the biggest trade for manny boosters out there), but maybe Shapiro feels that Crisp's value has peaked.

I don't know if Crisp's value has peaked entirely, but I think that when or if Franklin Gutierrez shows he can hit well enough to play center field, Crisp is probably trade bait. But that's looking ahead a season. I don't think I would be trading Crisp now, especially if they couldn't get a suitable replacement in left field. Maybe if they could land Manny Ramirez and a boatload of cash.

I'm convinced more than ever that signing Brian Giles would be the best fit for this team. Save the prospects for a starting pitcher.

by Ryan on Nov 25, 2005 1:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
I think the rumor that the tribe offered Crisp is the most interesting thing about the Thome trade. Who does Shapiro plan to fill his spot with? Is he that confident he will get Giles? I agree with you Ryan that it is a year early to be trading Crisp, there is much afoot that we don't know about, and thus we will be surprised at the end of the offseason.

by oxforddave on Nov 25, 2005 10:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
I think they would have put Jason Michaels in LF.  

by mkwng on Nov 25, 2005 4:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
that management is not committed to playing garko at first is a joke. what you're likely to get out of him is what guys like pronk/grady/coco/jhonny did in their first year of elongated playing time. that is pretty average stuff, some pop, but nothing rookie of the year worthy. that seems to be the worst case, and i'd take that considering you're not going to get much better production from broussard.
where this will pay off though is that in 2007 we should see production comprable to what those same guys did in their second season of facing big league pitching, and that is well worth it.
best case however, garko is ML ready and can immediately make a splash, even hit middle of the order.

i'm a big BJ Ryan fan but 8-9 mil/year seems too high. the club shouldn't be so big on grooming Fernando Cabrera. He has K-rod capabilities. nothing seems to shake this guy. let him close for league minimum, and get some dependable middle relievers to take the pressure off even more.

by brad on Nov 24, 2005 1:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
that management is not committed to playing garko at first is a joke. what you're likely to get out of him is what guys like pronk/grady/coco/jhonny did in their first year of elongated playing time.

After the Brandon Phillips disaster, all of those guys you mentioned had to win jobs from other players. Coco Crisp beat out Alex Escobar, Jhonny Peralta beat out Alex Cora, Travis Hafner beat out Ben Broussard initially, and of course Grady Sizemore took over for Juan Gonzalez.

I don't think the Indians are going to block Garko; they've had a pretty consistent track record as far as playing youngsters. But I don't think they want to simply give him the job going into Spring Training.

by Ryan on Nov 25, 2005 1:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
Rotoworld is reporting that the New York Daily News is reporting BJ Ryan has signed a 5 year, $47M deal with the Jays. If it's true...wow.

Kos

by Kos on Nov 25, 2005 8:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
Yea, I just got something up on this...

ARE THEY SERIOUS?

by rick on Nov 25, 2005 8:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
Holy $%^#$, that's almost as much as Mariano Rivera got in 2000 or 2001 (I forget exactly when).

by Ryan on Nov 25, 2005 11:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
It is ridiculous, but not surprising. I've been saying for a while that the market was going to go crazy this winter and that Shapiro had to get ahead of it if he wished to make acquisitions. 7 mil/yr for Thome doesn't look so bad now does it?

More importantly, it looks like the cubs got Howry cheap. Shapiro must have wanted him to walk for the draft picks. As for next year, fellow tribe fans, our new closer will be ........

Bob Wickman  

by oxforddave on Nov 25, 2005 11:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
7 mil/yr for Thome doesn't look so bad now does it?

Of course it doesn't seem bad, but Thome wasn't a free agent.

by Ryan on Nov 26, 2005 12:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Making Sense of the Market
Not only was Thome not a free agent, he wasn't even in high demand. Chicago gave up too much. BUT the thing you should be learning is that you have to outsmart the market. If you're willing to pay BJ Ryan $47M because everyone else is, you're falling into the same trap teams like the Mets, Tigers, and Orioles have. When guys get overpaid, the solution is not to overpay even more so you can get them. The solution is to find guys that are undervalued (Octavio Dotel? Chris Hammond? Erubiel Durazo?). You can sit here and say it isn't smart, but keep in mind this is exactly what we did with Kevin Millwood last year. When the market gets out of hand, you have to outsmart it, not hand out Denny Neagle-ish contracts because of it.

Kos

by Kos on Nov 26, 2005 1:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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