Making Sense of the Market
If you love big trades, this offseason is for you.
In the past couple of days, Carlos Delgado, Jim Thome, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, and (possibly) Juan Pierre have changed teams.
The most important deal from the Indians' standpoint was Thome going to Chicago for Aaron Rowand and two top prospects. The Indians were reportedly in contention for Thome, offering Coco Crisp and David Riske for Thome and OF Jason Michaels. If those details are correct, the Indians' offer was pretty good from a player standpoint; Crisp is younger and cheaper than Rowand, and Riske for Michaels would give the Phillies some help in the bullpen for a fourth outfielder.
(Commence train-of-thought speculation)
I think a lot of signs point to the Indians dealing David Riske if they can get an outfielder or a starting pitcher in return. Even if you assume Matt Miller won't be available, the Indians have pretty good depth in the setup roles between Rhodes, Cabrera, Sauerbeck, and Betancourt. If they do sign BJ Ryan or another closer, then they'd have five spots accounted for (again, assuming that Miller is injured). Probably one of the remaining spots would go to a longman (Brian Tallet, Jason Davis, etc). So if there's one area the Indians could deal from, it's the bullpen.
Right now the Indians have a lot of pieces in place, but a couple don't really seem to fit. What, for instance, will they do with Jason Dubois, who's right-handed and has good power potential, but is below-average in the outfield and has a difficult time adjusting to major-league pitching? What about Brandon Phillips, who appears blocked at second and short, and is out of options? What do they do with Ben Broussard if they do bring in a first baseman? Will Ryan Garko be that first baseman?
On the closer front, Billy Wagner will probably be setting the market soon when he chooses between the Mets and the Phillies. After Wagner signs, the rest of the closers should sign fairly quickly, including BJ Ryan.
Kevin Millwood is probably going to take his sweet time deciding where to go, so perhaps solving the closer question first is a way for Shapiro to put out one fire quickly before addressing the other major issues. I think going hard after Brian Giles is a better tack than after Ryan, but maybe Shapiro feels there's a better chance of landing Ryan than Giles. Ryan apparently likes the situation in Cleveland, where he'd be the closer, and away from the East Coast media circuses.
There's no doubt in my mind that Ryan is an excellent closer, and probably a better value than Billy Wagner, the only better stopper on the market,but I don't really like spending that kind of money on a 60-70 inning pitcher. But then again, look at what's out there among outfielders and starters.
(End train-of-thought speculation)
I've said this several times before, but going the trade route may be the best course of action IF the Indians want to fill all their needs this offseason. They might be able sign BJ Ryan or Brian Giles, but not both.
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28 comments
Comments
Re: Making Sense of the Market
Kos
by Kos on Nov 24, 2005 1:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
Look at it this way (projected 2006 salaries):
Ryan ($8M) replaces Wickman ($5M)
Vazquez ($9M) replaces Millwood ($12M)
Cabrera ($300K) replaces Howry ($4M)
Brown ($300K) replaces Riske ($2.5M)
If this situation happens, I doubt the Indians have much money left over to upgrade in the outfield unless they pull off a trade. But I could live with that if they get Ryan and Vazquez.
by Ryan on Nov 24, 2005 1:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
Kos
by Kos on Nov 24, 2005 2:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
Michaels is a nice player in his own right, very underrated, but no more productive or cheaper than Crisp. The Indians would still have Casey Blake stuck in right field.
And who knows how much of the contract Cleveland would have had to pick up.
I don't like that deal at all...
Notice how teams are being forced to eat very little of their bad contracts (Cameron, Delgado, Thome). Honestly, only paying half of Thome's deal AND getting rowand and two top prospects is a nice return.
If the Reds will bite (which I doubt since Riske is a free agent in one year), Austin Kearns would look great in right field. Did I mention he's cheap? I'm sure every team is in on Kearns, though.
by rick on Nov 24, 2005 2:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
I thought we learned not to type up $18 million in 70-inning pitchers last off season. As for Vazquez, I don't know about guys who couldn't cut it (at all) in the Bronx and now are demanding trades.
I agree with Ryan. Giles has never looked better. Has someone offered him a 4th year yet? I'd rather see 3 for $30MM to Giles if someone hasn't offered that much yet.
by cheech99 on Nov 25, 2005 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
Kos
by Kos on Nov 24, 2005 1:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
howry a cub
by brad on Nov 24, 2005 3:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
so the sox get him for 24 mill over 3 years? not too shabby. but of course there's no indication that thome can stay healthy. and even though he still gets the love of the hometown because of his aww shucks persona, he's no better than manny or albert or anyone that bolted for bucks.
by brad on Nov 24, 2005 3:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
Would any team have done that this offseason? Not likely.
Plus, they had to give up their gold glove caliber center fielder AND two of their top prospects.
I'm not saying Thome won't be productive for them...
but why not just stick with Frank Thomas for one year and 1)not assume the risk of Thome 2)not assume three years of Thome at that price 3)not lose your starting center fielder 4)not give up two of your best prospects
by rick on Nov 24, 2005 4:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
Kos
by Kos on Nov 24, 2005 8:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
by Jay on Nov 24, 2005 9:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
by oxforddave on Nov 24, 2005 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
Kos
by Kos on Nov 24, 2005 9:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
by Ryan on Nov 24, 2005 9:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
What is the problem with Kenny Williams? He sure looks like a very good GM to me. Picked up Contreras and Freddy Garcia for peanuts. Grabbed Jenks of off waivers. Signed Tuguchi and Dye. Yeah the Podsineck deal looks silly, but that had alot to do about dollars. Oh yeah, I think the white sox won the world series with a team he built.
This is a gamble for the white sox. Thome's back could blow out. But Kenny Williams is a smart enough man to realize the white sox will not repeat without upgrading their offense, and he is willing to pull the trigger. I wish he didn't. Huge upgrade over jurassic.
Prediction: if the tribe is unable to sign Giles, they will trade crisp for manny (with dollars going to the tribe, and other prospect(s) for the redsox). If the tribe is willing to put crisp on the market for a DH/1B, they will put him on the market for one of the best hitters in baseball. I'm not sure I would like that sort of deal (and I am the biggest trade for manny boosters out there), but maybe Shapiro feels that Crisp's value has peaked.
by oxforddave on Nov 24, 2005 11:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
BTW, can we please stop talking about how Ken Williams is great because the White Sox won the World Series? Ken Williams traded Carlos Lee SO he could sign Jermaine Dye. That is stupid. The Contreras trade was offered by Cashman because the Yankees are impatient, so I won't give Ken credit. They gave up a fair amount for Garcia, though I personally liked the deal and felt it was one of the few good moves Williams made in the last five years. Jenks could be good, but the guy had control problems and was a head case in AAA for Anaheim. It was more good coaching than a good GM pickup. And Iguchi has to be the most overhyped player on the team. He has no range at 2B, and his 3.3 WARP pretty much shows you that Ozzie and the media make him look better than he really is. The only other pickup by Williams that I liked was the Uribe for Aaron Miles trade, and I still can't give him credit for that because Dan O'Dowd and the Rockies are clueless, and anyone could have told you that Miles sucked.
Kos
by Kos on Nov 24, 2005 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
I don't know if Crisp's value has peaked entirely, but I think that when or if Franklin Gutierrez shows he can hit well enough to play center field, Crisp is probably trade bait. But that's looking ahead a season. I don't think I would be trading Crisp now, especially if they couldn't get a suitable replacement in left field. Maybe if they could land Manny Ramirez and a boatload of cash.
I'm convinced more than ever that signing Brian Giles would be the best fit for this team. Save the prospects for a starting pitcher.
by Ryan on Nov 25, 2005 1:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
by oxforddave on Nov 25, 2005 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
by mkwng on Nov 25, 2005 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
where this will pay off though is that in 2007 we should see production comprable to what those same guys did in their second season of facing big league pitching, and that is well worth it.
best case however, garko is ML ready and can immediately make a splash, even hit middle of the order.
i'm a big BJ Ryan fan but 8-9 mil/year seems too high. the club shouldn't be so big on grooming Fernando Cabrera. He has K-rod capabilities. nothing seems to shake this guy. let him close for league minimum, and get some dependable middle relievers to take the pressure off even more.
by brad on Nov 24, 2005 1:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
After the Brandon Phillips disaster, all of those guys you mentioned had to win jobs from other players. Coco Crisp beat out Alex Escobar, Jhonny Peralta beat out Alex Cora, Travis Hafner beat out Ben Broussard initially, and of course Grady Sizemore took over for Juan Gonzalez.
I don't think the Indians are going to block Garko; they've had a pretty consistent track record as far as playing youngsters. But I don't think they want to simply give him the job going into Spring Training.
by Ryan on Nov 25, 2005 1:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
Kos
by Kos on Nov 25, 2005 8:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
ARE THEY SERIOUS?
by rick on Nov 25, 2005 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
by Ryan on Nov 25, 2005 11:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
More importantly, it looks like the cubs got Howry cheap. Shapiro must have wanted him to walk for the draft picks. As for next year, fellow tribe fans, our new closer will be ........
Bob Wickman
by oxforddave on Nov 25, 2005 11:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
Of course it doesn't seem bad, but Thome wasn't a free agent.
by Ryan on Nov 26, 2005 12:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Making Sense of the Market
Kos
by Kos on Nov 26, 2005 1:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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