Albert Belle...Hall of Famer?

by Ryan on Dec 13, 2005 12:29 AM EST in News Comment 11 comments

You all remember Albert, the tremendous baseball talent who also was a tremendous jerk. This dichotomy is not new in Hall of Famers, but given that Belle is a borderline candidate for the Hall, and those with votes are those he interacted with in the locker room, his off-the-field antics might play a large role in the voters' decision. If Belle had played until he was in his late 30s, amassed 500+ home runs, and had a couple more top-5 MVP finishes, voters might not have had a choice.

But even with a shortened career, you can make a case for Albert. Here's a list of left fielders in the Hall of Fame, along with their total WARP (adjusted for era), and their 3 most productive seasons. Just for fun, I've added Albert Belle and Jim Rice, the two left fielders on this year's ballot.

Belle certainly does not have the career totals to justify enshrinement, but he does have the type of peak which have gotten several short-career players into the Hall. In fact, his numbers compare favorably to Jim Rice, who may get in this year. Between 1993 and 2000, Belle only posted a WARP3 under 10 twice. Even for his era, those are excellent numbers. Belle finished in the top 10 in MVP voting five times from 1993 to 1998, and really should have won at least once. He was the best player on several good to great teams, including the 1995 pennant-winning Indians. He's performed well (.230/.405/.557) in the postseason.

What's working against Belle? Plenty. He doesn't have any of the career milestones that get the attention of voters. His defense will probably hurt him more than it will help him. And of course, he's alienated the vast majority of those who have HOF ballots.

The problem with Belle is that even if some voters recognize that he has a case for election, his off-the-field issues will tip the scale against him. If Albert had been able to play for 3-4 more seasons, reached the 500 home run mark (or at least gotten close to it), and put together one or two more very good (top-10 MVP) seasons, then a lot of voters would have held their noses and written Belle's name on their ballots. But I think his case is too marginal to override those who still hold a grudge against him.

What do you think?

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Re: Albert Belle...Hall of Famer?

Albert was the first of the trio of potential hall of famers to leave Cleveland for more bucks (of course, Ramirez and Thome being the other two). Would it be fair to say that the grass was not greener for any of these guys? (Well the money was greener). Albert will not make the HOF, Ramirez seems likely and so does Thome as long as he is not done. Will any of them be wearing Cleveland caps in Cooperstown?

My brother has pointed out that the '96 indians was likely the most potent offensive team of all time. They had 4 of the all-time top 40 OPS in the prime of their careers (Ramirez (10), Thome (18), Giles (22), and Belle (37)). Jeff Kent and Brian Giles rode the bench. Free agency and some bad trades ended the bashing era for the tribe, which we will not likely see again in our lifetime.

Will future tribe stars recognize the advantage of staying in Cleveland when their free agency begins? Or is it just best that these guys left. It always seems to me that other teams particularly go after Cleveland guys (and end up overpaying them) as they feel that Cleveland cannot pay them. Am I just paranoid?

by oxforddave on Dec 13, 2005 5:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Albert Belle...Hall of Famer?

Wait, what's the advantage to staying in Cleveland? They won't get older? Thome's back still would have gone out had he stayed here. It just would have been our problem and not Philadelphia's (and now Chicago's) if he'd stayed.

Greg

by dctribefan on Dec 13, 2005 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Albert Belle...Hall of Famer?

Point well taken (though Thome's back is still servicable, it was an elbow injury that cost him last year). Everyone has to move on, some teams earlier than others. It still doesn't lessen the bite.

by oxforddave on Dec 13, 2005 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Albert Belle...Hall of Famer?

Thome would certainly go in as an Indian barring a a late-career renaissance. On the off chance that Belle gets in, he'd be wearing an Indians cap. Ramirez would probably go in as a Red Sock.

Actually, I'd love to see Belle make if only to see his induction speech. That would be priceless.

by Ryan on Dec 13, 2005 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Albert Belle...Hall of Famer?

Depending on how many more years Manny plays, and whether or not they are all in Boston, I wouldn't be too surprised to see Manny go in with his Indians hat. He hasn't been that happy in Boston and really liked it much better in Cleveland. As long as the choice is his and not MLB, I believe he'd go with Cleveland.

by mickeyf on Dec 14, 2005 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Albert Belle...Hall of Famer?

The choice is the directors of the Hall of Fame, and no one else's, and they say that their aim is to pick the cap that most represents the player's place in baseball history. Generally, that means the team on which the player achieved the most, although there are occasional exceptions.

Reggie Jackson spent more time on and was much more accomplished as an A's player than as a Yankee, but his moments as a Yankee are so indelibly burned into baseball fans' collective memories, the N/Y cap got the call. Clemens, on the other hand, is a dead lock to go in a Boston cap.

There is no doubt that Thome will go in as an Indian if he makes it. If he isn't traded, Manny will have spent more time as a Red Sox player than as an Indian and probably will have collected more hits, home runs and RBI's. In fact, Manny may surpass his Indians HR total this season, as the score is presently CLE-Manny 236, BOS-Manny 199. Between that and his World Series MVP, Manny likely will go in in a Red Sox cap. If he is traded this season, it will be a closer call. If he ever winds up back on the Indians -- which he won't -- the balance tips back in that direction.

by Jay on Dec 14, 2005 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Albert Belle...Hall of Famer?

Recognize that it isn't just the Indians, the fans of about 25 teams feel the same way. Think about the Royals, who just a few years ago had arguably the best outfield in baseball with Dye, Damon and Beltran.

Free agency is a fact of life. Once players reach it, they get exponentially more expensive, while simultaneously declining in their abilities. Our free agents are no better in that respect, and no worse, than other teams'.

I looked at Omar Vizquel a year ago and said, if this were some other team's free agent, we wouldn't even be considering signing him. So why should we re-sign him? I felt the same about Colon in 2002. It takes a lot for me to get sentimental at this point. Thome was a perfect storm of a great player, a leader, a community fixture, and a rare buyer's market overall in 2002. Yet even in that case, we didn't re-sign him, and that wasn't a mistake.

The bottom line, I guess, is that there's just no point worrying about whether "our" free agents will want to stay. The only way we're going to keep players beyond their seventh year is if they agree to extend their contracts at a decent discount, as Thome did in 1997 and Sabathia did in 2005, more than a full year before hitting free agency.

If they're not willing to stay at a deep discount, then the Indians are quite literally better off without them.

by Jay on Dec 14, 2005 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Albert Belle...Hall of Famer?

I agree with you Jay. But for both Thome and Ramirez, there were teams that felt that they had to have each of them for silly reasons. They way overpaid for these silly reasons, and if they were not involved there was a good chance the tribe could have had them for almost reasonable money. It would be like the tribe feeling they needed Giles and offered him something ridiculous like 5/50.

Yes, it still burns me that the Phillies had to have Thome, realize a couple of years later that it was stupid, and then trade him to our rivals at a discount. Thanks a bunch, Phillies.

by oxforddave on Dec 15, 2005 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Albert Belle...Hall of Famer?

Yeah, that's a good point, but the Phillies paid a heavy price for screwing us, and the jury is still out on how much of a discount the White Sox got. I'd also say, the market is a living thing, and Philly/Boston's interest in Thome/Ramirez didn't happen in a vacuum, it happened in large part because there weren't other major suitors, and each team perceived that there were only two bidders and they had the resources to outbid us. We went to five years on Thome, but only because the Phillies went to six. If the Phillies aren't in it, maybe the Marlins or somebody starts bidding, and maybe they go five years and the Indians will only go four years ... and we lose anyway.

I save my annoyance for Thome, who blocked efforts to trade him all through 2002 because he convinced himself he wanted to retire as an Indian -- then he bolted anyway for the money. From our perspective, he couldn't have hurt us any more if he'd tried. The fact that those particular draft picks are working out for us, on the one hand you can point to it as the "wisdom" of blowing off Thome, but on the other hand it's more or less a fluke.

by Jay on Dec 15, 2005 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Albert Belle...Hall of Famer?

The only recent inductee I can find comparable to Belle is Kirby Puckett in 2000 (2001?). Based on the WARP criteria above, his best three seasons were 11.0, 10.5, and 9.2 for a three year total of 30.7. His overall total was 91.9. He had a 12 year career (also cut short by injury - eye). Only 1 season of less than 500PA.

Whereas Belle also had a 12 year career, but 4 had less than 500 PA (although 2 were real close). I would say that Belle had an 11 year career (1990 only 9 games).

In comparison:
Puckett Avg Season (12 years) 653PA, 89R, 90RBI, 34-2B, 17HR, 11SB, .318AVG, .837OPS, 7.66 WARP
Belle Avg Season (11 years) 607PA, 88R, 113RBI, 35-2B, 35HR, 8SB, .295AVG, .933OPS, 8.05 WARP

Puckett was definitely a better fielder and a nice guy (til the mistress thing anyway), but "Joey" was the most feared hitter in the league from 94-98. I don't think you could say that about Puckett.

Yes we're biased for being Tribe fans, but I do believe Albert should be a HOF, but I'd give it a 20% or less because of all the people he ticked off during his reign of terror ...

Just my thoughts

by talonk on Dec 13, 2005 7:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs