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Sizemore Locked Up

by Ryan on Mar 29, 2006 7:20 AM EST in News Comment 51 comments

According to Andy Call of the Canton Repository, it appears that Grady Sizemore will be the next core player to sign a long-term deal:

PAYDAY FOR GRADY The Indians, according to a club source, are likely to announce within the next few days they have agreed to a long-term contract with center fielder Grady Sizemore. The team and Sizemore's agent have been involved in negotiations for most of the spring. The deal likely will mirror those given to Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta -- five years with a club option for a sixth season.

If Sizemore is indeed signed, he will be the fifth player signed to a long-term deal within the past two seasons. Last year, the team extended CC Sabathia, Travis Hafner, and Victor Martinez. Earlier this spring, the club inked Jhonny Peralta through his arbitration years. Sabathia's contract bought out two years of free agency, while the other three's deals potentially buy out one year.

Sizemore is the closest thing the team has to a true star, a player with exceptional on-the-field and off-the-field appeal. He's just 23 years old, and his offensive upside is as great as anyone currently on the roster.

UPDATE: It's official: Six years for a guaranteed $23.45 million, plus an $8 million option for a seventh year (2012). Sizemore's contract sets a new major league record for players with less than two years of major league service time, shattering the prior record set by Victor Martinez a year ago at $15.5 million. Sizemore's contract is in fact one of the largest ever given to any player by the Indians, a team that has guaranteed over $28 million to a player only twice in its history. [Jay]

UPDATE: Here's the year-by-year salary data, along with Peralta and Martinez's contracts for comparison. The first number is the signing bonus, the last two are the option year and buyout amounts. Martinez's contract starts in 2004, while the other two start in 2005. [Jay]

Grady: 1.00, 0.50, 0.75, 3.00, 4.60, 5.60, 7.50, 8.50/0.50
Jhonny: 1.25, 0.50, 0.75, 2.25, 3.40, 4.60, 7.00/0.25
Victor: 1.00, 0.50, 0.80, 3.00, 4.25, 5.70, 7.00/0.25

0 recs | Comment 51 comments

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Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

I'm not much of a fantasy league watcher, but in this week's Sports Weekly, John Hunt lists five overrated players and guess who is first on the list: Grady Sizemore.

I hope Grady proves Hunt to be very, very wrong.

by kov on Mar 29, 2006 9:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

someone's girlfriend is a grady fan...

by concuss on Mar 29, 2006 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

Of course Grady is overrated. He's got the Derek Jeter mojo going.

by Jay on Mar 29, 2006 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

Who were the others?

by crazymoloh on Mar 29, 2006 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

Overrated:
Grady Sizemore
Chris Shelton
Jon Garland
Tony Clark

Underrated:
Bruce Chen
Alfonso Soriano
Jeff Francoeur
J.J Hardy
Austin Kearns

by kov on Mar 29, 2006 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

Maybe there was an editorial mishap and they switched the 'overrated'/'underrated' labels

by APV on Mar 29, 2006 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

I think he's talking about fantasy value and fantasy prices when he calls these players overrated. Some of those descriptions match reality, some do not. Fantasy players don't really care if, say, Bruce Chen is a total assface in the clubhouse.

by Jay on Mar 29, 2006 9:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

How can Soriano be underrated? Isn't he one of the most overrated players in the game, or did everyone but Jim Bowden finally figure out he's not worth $10M a year?

Kos

by Kos on Mar 29, 2006 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

Sorry, I missed Joe Crede on the overated list: There were five of each.

Here's what Hunt said about Sizemore:

"I liked him a lot last year, but now he's getting Vlad Guerrero-type money in early 2006 drafts. That's too much to risk on a possible sophomore slump."

Funny he should mention money (fantasy type)just ahead of Sizemore getting real money.

by kov on Mar 29, 2006 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

Press conference scheduled for 11:30AM at Winter Haven according to Indians Ink.

by cheech99 on Mar 29, 2006 9:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

PD reporting it is done. No terms yet.

by oxforddave on Mar 29, 2006 9:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

PD now reports 6 years, $24 million, with a club option for a 7th year. Do you think Peralta is going to feel a little miffed that he only got 5/$13?

by APV on Mar 29, 2006 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

Sure. As miffed as a guy who just got $13 million can feel.

by dctribefan on Mar 29, 2006 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

Maybe as miffed as Omar was a few years ago.

by kov on Mar 29, 2006 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

I'll be a little surprised if it's $24 million guaranteed, without counting options or incentives. It actually isn't that far off Peralta's, if you heavily backload and add the sixth year. But you would think the Indians would be a little sensitive to upsetting the apple cart a little bit.

Then again, the Indians are unlikely to have another negotiation like this with a position player for at least two years. Now then ... where's that 3-4 year deal for Lee?

by Jay on Mar 29, 2006 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

The sixth year would buy out a year of free agency, so that's probably where the extra dollars are coming from.

by Ryan on Mar 29, 2006 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

No doubt, I think we'll see that at least $6 million is for the sixth year alone.

Hey, Ryan, not to pick nits, but "as much offensive upside as anyone on the roster?" In my view, there is one guy on the roster for whom an 1100 OPS some year would not be a total shock, and it isn't Sizemore.

by Jay on Mar 29, 2006 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

I think Sizemore could easily have Jim Edmonds' career. That's Hafner-like offensive production, plus speed.

by Ryan on Mar 29, 2006 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

And I think Hafner could have Jason Giambi's career, only without the steroids.

by Jay on Mar 29, 2006 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

And I think Hafner could have Jason Giambi's career, only without the steroids.

Well, then you project Hafner to only hit 20 HRs a year :)

by Ryan on Mar 29, 2006 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

Haha!

Hafner is coming off his age 27 and 28 years and outperformed Giambi at those ages. At ages 29 and 30, Giambi had two MVP-caliber years with an 1130 OPS.

They have a lot in common as hitters, notably a rare three-way balance between contact, patience and power. You see plenty of patient power hitters and plenty of high-contact power hitters, but you rarely see a hitter with strength in all three aspects. Obviously they are both lefty hitters with minimal speed or defensive value.

They don't show up as comps for each other, however, for two reasons. One, Giambi was somewhat rushed to the majors while Hafner was somewhat stuck in the minors, which produces a net difference of two whole years of major league at-bats at the same age. Two, again, Giambi simply was not as good at this age.

by Jay on Mar 29, 2006 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

It's not like I'm ripping on Hafner, it's that I really like Sizemore.

FWIW, I'm not as bullish on Peralta.

by Ryan on Mar 29, 2006 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

What, exactly, is Pronk's contract status, again?

by JulioBernazard on Mar 29, 2006 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

He's signed through 2007, with a team option for 2008.

Jay's Contract Compendium should answer all your questions.

by Ryan on Mar 29, 2006 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

So is Hafner your 1100 OPS guy?

by kov on Mar 29, 2006 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

Best seasons of current Indians, by OPS:

Hafner 2005 - 1003
Hafner 2004 - 993
Peralta 2005 - 885
Broussard 2004 - 883
Martinez 2005 - 853
Martinez 2004 - 851
Blake 2004 - 839
Sizemore 2005 - 832

Yes, I think I'm talking about Hafner!

Whatever we might say about their age and talent differences, it does bear mentioning that Hafner has a 170-point head start over Sizemore.

The list is also a reminder that (a) Broussard might really be worth one more $2 million crap shoot, and (b) Crisp wouldn't have been on it.

by Jay on Mar 29, 2006 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

I'm not Jay, but he did mean Hafner. I love Hafner to death, and I think he's one of the top hitters in the game, but an 1100 OPS? Giambi has only done that twice, and there's a good chance that those years were roid-aided. I'm not saying Hafner posting an 1100 OPS is impossible, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it (the way it reads, it looks like you're saying it's simply his upside, which I can agree with), especially since the Jake is a pitcher's park. I'll be thrilled if he tops out at 1050...after we re-sign him, of course.

I grew up during the Hart regime. For me, seeing us lock up our young players is more normal than not doing so. It's such a great idea when used on the right players, and this is one of those times. Locking in a guy like Sizemore at this price is a fantastic move. We're talking about a guy who could develop some more power and turn into one of the top outfielders in the game. For what it's worth, PECOTA says there's about a 55% chance that he develops into at least a star. Having an option on one of his free agent years is incredible, especially when you consider that, after factoring inflation into the option year, the present day "real-time" value of the $10.5M option (assuming he reaches all of his incentives) is probably about $8.5M. Plus, he's arguably turning into our most marketable player, so I'm sure we'll make some of the contract back by selling "Mrs. Sizemore" shirts. Hell, even I'd wear one of those...

I love that Shapiro locked Grady in now rather than waiting another year. The price seems about right, and the option year makes it a great deal. It's nice to see that we are concerned about locking in our young stars, and I don't understand why other teams don't do this as much as we do.

Kos

by Kos on Mar 29, 2006 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

I get the feeling the other AL GMs are none-to-thrilled to see us lock down most of our young stars for the next few years. The White Sox and Twins especially since this affords us the opportunity to go out and get other pieces without having to worry about signing our own and still be a frontrunner in the division. Beane must be wondering how to get it done in Oak-town. I wonder if Steinbrenner/Cashman and Epstein even care since they have boatloads of cash, but they could be envious.

This just means a trip to Cleveland will be very difficult to win 2 of 3 for the next 3-5 years

Go get 'em Tribe!!!

by talonk on Mar 29, 2006 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

You have it right, I think we agree. "I said, an 1100 OPS some year would not be a total shock."

by Jay on Mar 29, 2006 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

Wow, those all seem low. Maybe I've just been looking at the Yankees payroll too much. Imagine how Manny's $147 mil (or whatever it was) would have dwarfed all of those if he did not run off to Boston.

by dvd1204 on Mar 29, 2006 12:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up?

Sorry, the revised version is below ... I somehow deleted Thome from the list before posting.

Anyway, yeah ... that Manny deal made absolutely no sense. And given where the team was a year later, the Thome deal would have been almost as senseless.

by Jay on Mar 29, 2006 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

In case anyone's interested, these are the largest guaranteed contracts in Indians history:

David Justice, $38.5 million (mid-1997 extension)
Roberto Alomar, $32 million (1999 free agent)
Jim Thome, $30.5 (mid-1997 extension)
Travis Fryman, $28 million (1998 extension)
Marquis Grissom, $27.5 million (mid-1997 extension)
Chuck Finley, $27 million (2000 free agent)
C.C. Sabathia, $27 million (mid-2005 extension)
Charles Nagy, $26 million (mid-1998 extension)
Kenny Lofton, $24 million (1998 free agent)
Grady Sizemore, $23.45 million (2006 lockup)

I believe that's all of them over $20 million, with Burks and Vizquel just missing the cut. The dollar figures are based on the guarantee of the new contract plus, in the case of any extension, any money still owed to the player at the time the extension was signed.

by Jay on Mar 29, 2006 1:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Casey Blake made the Top 25

This has absolutly nothing to do with Grady, but, you all are going to love this. In the Lorain Morning Journal today, it was mentioned that Casey Blake, C-Town's #1, was recently named to the State of Iowa's Top 25 all-time greatest athlete's list. Casey was a 4 year letter winner in 4 sports in high school as well as a baseball player. Bob Feller and Dan Gable of wrestling fame had to make the list, but is Iowa that devoid of athleticism that Casey Freakin' Blake makes the all time greatest Iowa athelete list? Can anyone name anybody else?

by sons of geronimo on Mar 29, 2006 5:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Casey Blake made the Top 25

I love it when these comments take a total right turn. Off the top of my head, the only Iowa athletes I can think of are Kurt Warner, Fred Hoiberg, and Raef Lafrentz. I'm not even sure that they're all originally from there.

by dgcambridge on Mar 29, 2006 6:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Casey Blake made the Top 25

Whatever else you want to say about Blake, he seems to be a very fine athlete. The nature of the game, however, is that being a great athlete doesn't have that much to do with hitting a baseball hard.

by Jay on Mar 29, 2006 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

I didn't read through all the posts but wouldn't it have made more sense for the Indians to sign Grady to a bigger deal once he hit free agency? This only locks him up for one year of FA if I am correct so it just seems like we are misspending our precious money.

by Joe. on Mar 29, 2006 8:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

The theory is that by doing this, you lock in lower salaries during the player's three arbitration years than they would actually be awarded from an arbitrator.

If you look at the three contracts I laid out at the end of the post, all three players will basically be getting paid the same money as Crisp and Broussard in their first arbitration years. And, you know, these guys are a lot better than those guys.

by Jay on Mar 29, 2006 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

I should add, that first year of arbitration is where the LEAST savings are. You may note Soriano's $10 million salary.

by Jay on Mar 29, 2006 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

and he lost his case too.

by homelytourist on Mar 29, 2006 11:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

What does everyone thing about the poison-pill-esque trade clauses in the contract?

Something like if the Indians trade him they have to pay 10% of every dollar left on the contract. I don't know if I've heard of that before (at least structured in that fashion).

by rog on Mar 30, 2006 9:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

It's a different structure, but many contracts have a small poison pill for trades. Here's how this evolved:

Teams want a hometown discount
Players don't want to give a hometown discount only to be traded later out of the hometown
Teams would agree to no-trade clause to offset hometown discount
No-trade clauses work out horribly a huge percentage of the time

So, the solution is that you negotiate a contract with a "vanishing hometown discount." If a player is traded out of the hometown, the discount disappears.

by Jay on Mar 30, 2006 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

Jay, perhaps Arroyo should have hired you to be his agent!

by Jeffrey R on Mar 30, 2006 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

I'm available. I can live on 2.5 percent, too.

by Jay on Mar 30, 2006 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

I will be the dumb one and ask what was wrong with his contract. I never heard anything about it.

by rog on Mar 31, 2006 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

Supposedly, he signed for less than market value because he liked playing in Boston. The proverbial "home town discount". Less than 6 months later, he was traded.

The irony being that the lower contract made him an even more attractive trade target.

by dgcambridge on Mar 31, 2006 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

The ironic thing about Arroyo's hometown discount to the Red Sox is that it made him even MORE tradeable. I would think that every agent will use that as a cautionary tale to their clients. By the way, I'd hire Jay too...of course the 2.5% is negotiable.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Mar 30, 2006 7:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

Thanks, dude. And I quite agree about the contract, I think I may have even said that when it happened. Again, had I been Arroyo's agent, if my client was insisting on signing that deal, I would resign from his service. That's just embarassing.

by Jay on Mar 30, 2006 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

What I don't get is why he even has an agent? If you aren't going to listen to them, why would you pay for one?

Kos

by Kos on Mar 31, 2006 12:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

They do a lot more than sign contracts.

Arbitration is a huge amount of preparation from an agent standpoint.

Equipment deals. This is HUGE from a player standpoint. Believe me.

Endorsement deals. Anybody and everybody wants you to sign crap.

Getting a guy a car for spring training. A house/apt. for spring trainig. A house/apt. for during the season.

A player's personal income taxes. Who finds an accountant? A lawyer?

A player makes a few million for the first time. Guess who is in charge of either offering financial advice or finding a financial advisor?

They need to make travel arrangements? Where to find concert tickets?

I've learned so much interning at an agency. The spectrum of responsibilities is huge.

My point? The % they earn is well earned.

Especially when you consider they ONLY take a % on original signing bonus, and NEVER again until YEAR ONE OF ARBITRATION.

that's a lot of time, usually 4-8 FOR THOSE THAT MAKE IT before an agent makes any cash off a player after the signing bonus. and again, that's just for guys that "make it"...

Not quite as glamorous as it seems...I promise. But would I do it? Hell yea.

by rick on Mar 31, 2006 2:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

That's a great list, but most of it could fall under the purview of a highly effective personal assistant, a job which would command something less than $100,000. While many things are expected of an agent, his or her singular economic value is in contract negotiations.

by Jay on Mar 31, 2006 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sizemore Locked Up

All I know is I'm stoked to have Sizemore, Peralta, and Hafner tied down for the near future to the team (not to mention my fantasy league where we use their actual salaries and a hard cap - I doubt I'm trading any one of these 3 guys unless I am overwhelmed).

From a Tribe perspective, once we get Lee signed, our core is established for a few years. If Marte hits like he is supposed to, I can see him getting a similar deal (this is still far off). And as much as noone likes to hear this, having these players signed to these deals is also beneficial two-fold. One, we know our budget and can allocate funds for the missing ingredients. Two, if we need to deal one of them (this is a distinct possibility in order to reload), their contracts are easier to move then a $60M+ anchor. We won't have to eat the $$, but rather get a productive player back.

by talonk on Mar 31, 2006 11:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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