Jason Johnson has a career record of 54-88, from seasons spent with Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and, most recently, Detroit. He has had one winning season in his nine-season career, when he went 8-7, in 1999, with Baltimore; but he only started 22 games that season and had an ERA of 5.46 with a 1.52 WHIP, above his career averages of 4.89 and 1.47. In four of the last five seasons, Johnson has made at least 32 starts, quite impressive for a guy battling diabetes, and ostensibly the reason Cleveland signed him in the offseason. Johnson was to be the fifth starter--not exactly a role with lofty expectations--but Indians management and a number of writers stressed that Johnson couldn't be judged by his career record since it came while pitching for teams that, well, stunk, and that signing Johnson was a great move since he was so reliable. If anything, Johnson was going to be a better fifth starter than Scott Elarton, last season's fifth starter, who signed with the Royals in the offseason.
    Oh how reality fails to meet expectations. Yesterday afternoon, against the Oakland Athletics, Johnson gave up five runs in the first inning and two runs in the second inning before he was pulled from the game. I applaud Eric Wedge for yanking Johnson so early in the game, but it was clear after four batters that Johnson couldn't find the strike zone (three walks in his two innings) with his regular pitches and so the only way he was getting the ball over the plate was by tossing batting-practice fastballs. After four batters the A's scored two runs and had runners on first and third. Cleveland hadn't recorded an out.
    Johnson got off to a good start this season, going seven innings and giving up no runs against the Twins in his first start. But this was back when everyone thought Minnesota was good and could hit; turns out Minnesota isn't good and can't hit. Since Johnson has given up at least four runs in his last three starts, and since the Indian's fourth starter, Paul Byrd, as given up at least five runs three times this season and has twice failed to make it through three innings, the Indians ought to consider new strategies for getting the most out of its starting rotation.
    Fortunately, I have a good idea (which actually isn't my idea; it's the idea a number of smart baseball analysts have had over the past few seasons, but I'm recommending it here, for Eric Wedge.).
    Right now the Indians are allotting 20% of the games to two pitchers who have ERAs of 7.11 and 5.08. That's 64-65 games this season and, at their current pace, 32 or 33 losses. Those 30-odd losses also mean increased stress on the bullpen, which translates to even more losses. But what if the Indians could distribute 32 of those games to its three other starters--Sabathia, Lee, and Westbrook--while acquiring an additional arm for the bullpen, thus reducing bullpen fatigue? This could mean 10-12 fewer losses, so instead of finishing with a pedestrian 85-77 record the Indians finish with an outstanding 95-win season, for example. Is such a thing possible? Why, yes. It's called a four-man rotation, and it was the standard for most of baseball until the late 1970s.
    Managing a four-man rotation is arguably more difficult than managing a five-man rotation, since a manager must pay very close attention to how many pitches his starters are throwing while tired (this is key: the number of pitches thrown does not matter; it's the number of pitches thrown when tired that damages a pitcher's arm and reduces his effectiveness.). Instead of allowing each starter 100-110 pitches each start, a manager might only allow 85-95 pitches. But one fewer starter means one more relief pitcher, and given that starting pitchers come at a premium trading a fifth or fourth starter for an above-average middle relief pitcher is entirely possible. And this is what the Indians ought to do. Trade either Byrd or Johnson to a team that is heavy in relief pitchers or in need of another starter. Take that relief pitcher and use him with Jason Davis as a long-relief man. Allow the big three pitchers to throw fewer pitches each start, but give the more starts. Of course, these pitchers are going to throw more innings for this strategy to work, and a bigger concern among managers than pitches per start is inning per season. But Eric Wedge need not worry. While all of the starters are going to throw more innings, a higher percentage of the innings pitched will come from the first few innings of a ballgame--when pitchers are fresh--than later innings--when pitchers are tired and are at the highest risk of injury and ineffectiveness. The number of innings pitched matters, but when those innings are pitched (start of the game, end of the game) matters, too.  The Indians will pitch about 1450 innings this season, and Wedge should do everything in his power to make sure that his best pitchers are pitching the most innings they can. Moving to a four-man rotation ensures that those pitchers will pitch more innings. And in so doing will enable the Indians to win more games.

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As for what the front office would say: there is little evidence to suggest that the pitchers would be at any greater risk of injury pitching every four days than every five. The statistical evidence shows that the primary reason pitchers get hurt is because managers leave them in games when their arms are tired. Certainly Wedge would have to pay closer attention to the health of each pitcher, but he's paid enough to take on that additional responsibility (in fact, doing what he can to help the Indians win is, if not explicit, implicit in his contract).

Moving either Johnson or Bird into the bullpen is interesting, but it probably couldn't be done on the fly. Or that's what managers and GMs would tell you. And alleviating the financial burdon of Bird's $14.5 million contract should factor into the decision.

But the point about them coming into the game when we are down four runs and it doesn't matter how many more they give up is a bit too defeatist for me. We have the best offense in baseball. Being down four runs isn't the much if there are a few innings left. We need our long RP to keep us in game because we can score enough to make it interesting.