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Around SBN: 2011 In Extreme Home Runs

Missed Opportunities

Dosequisman_tiny by Jay on in News

With 100 games left, the Indians are now 9.5 games back of division leader Detroit, 8 games back of defending champ and current Wild Card leader Chicago, with three other teams in between.  Realistically, a 60-40 record is not going to get it done.  It likely will take a 65-35 finish to make the postseason.

Helpfully, this is basically the same team that went on a 64-33 tear last season -- starting with game 59.  Of course no team is likely to go on that kind of tear, ever, but it wouldn't exactly be like lightning striking twice either.  It's worth considering that another team has garnered a reputation for staging improbable charges after May, multiple years in a row.  Last year's Athletics went on a 58-24 run before finally succumbing to injuries.  They went 69-39 in 2004, 80-50 in 2003, 71-26 in 2002.

Would it surprise anyone at all if these Indians turned out to be a lot like those Athletics?  No.  But it remains a long shot.

The Indians created another significant obstacle along the way by slumping over this particular stretch of games, 17-20 since May 1.  That stretch included 15 games against our direct rivals for the division championship (White Sox, Tigers), nine games against terrible teams (Royals, Pirates) and 13 against fairly mediocre teams (Angels, Twins, Athletics, Mariners).

In other words, every single one of these 37 games was an opportunity to gain significant ground in the pennant race, either by dominating a relatively weak team or by defeating a direct rival.  And they blew it.  Here's what the Indians have accomplished, or failed to accomplish, over that stretch of games, from best to worst:

  • Against Chicago, went 5-4 to gain one game.  This must be considered a bare-minimum accomplishment given Chicago was already ahead in the standings.
  • Against horrible teams, went 5-4 -- not what contenders are supposed to do to horible teams.
  • Against mediocre teams, went 6-7 -- looking very much like a mediocre team themselves.
  • Against Detroit, went 1-5, making an incredible contribution to Detroit's playoff aspirations.
It's hard to look at.  Broken down this way, it's clear the Indians could have won, and should have been able to win, six or seven more of these games -- and indeed, they outscored their opponents 201-183 over that stretch.  A record of 20-17 would have been more predictable even given a relatively mediocre string of preformances.  For this particular stretch of games, a run of 25-12 would not have been surprising in the least.

The whys and hows and what-nexts are very much up for debate.  But it's clear that the Indians slumped at the precise moment they should have been surging.  That stretch of opportunity will not arise again on the schedule this season, and overcoming it will not be easy -- even if the 21st Century Indians are very much like the 21st Century Athletics.

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Re: Missed Opportunities
mark my words gentlemen....sunday, june 10, that infamous day when merloni was sent down for the terrible vazquez, marks the end of the indians season. shapiro should wake up with a horse's head in his bed.

by mikehudson on Jun 12, 2006 7:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
Um, the Indians were 29-32 before that move was made.

by Jay on Jun 12, 2006 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
Why do you think that has any thing to do with it, Shapiro rolled the dice in the off season on pitching and it has not worked out.  
Fan in Texas

by fanintexas on Jun 12, 2006 7:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
Summary of a season: Mediocre at best.

We have hit well at times. Lots of slugfests in our favor, and lots not. We have hit well in the clutch sometimes, but not consistently at all.

We have done better in one run games, but we haven't become proficient at all.

It is our pitching that needs to get better. Our starting pitching has been so hot and cold (CC excepted). One good to great start, one poor start throughout the staff. This puts a strain on our bullpen as well, lots of innings in blowout losses, followed by poor pitching in close games. And then when we do have stretches of good pitching (SP and RP) our bats go cold.

Id the season over? No. Can we get back in the race? Yes. Do I have "faith"? Yes. But I am a realist. Unless we can have a long winning span (not necessarily a streak per se) of 8-1, 15-2, etc., this season will slowly slip away.

by talonk on Jun 12, 2006 7:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
I wonder... did the 2000-2003 Athletics also seem to underperform their Pythagorean projections?  

Well, I guess I should rephrase, did they severely underperform than in the first months of the season before catching their stride in early to mid-June?  It seems like the two teams are built with the same philosophies in mind, if not perhaps the vaunted Big Three on the mound.  

by cheech99 on Jun 12, 2006 8:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
All they've show this year is mediocrity across the board.  The hitting has been strong at times, but inconsistent throughout (at least in terms of run scoring).  I would say they have won pretty much the same number of games that they "should have."

by rog on Jun 12, 2006 8:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
You have really hit the nail on the head, Jay.  It's so frustrating seeing the Indians given chance after chance to get themselves back in the hunt and just throwing it away every single time.

I keep hoping for a turnaround, but every day it seems less and less likely.

by Jackdaw on Jun 12, 2006 9:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
This team needs a couple things...

1 - another bat
2 - another starter
3 - a good fielding utility infielder
4 - one more real solid bullpen guy

1 - should be good with a trade for a Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, or Carl Crawford (all are supposedly on the block)...all are LF and Crawford or Soriano would be perfect because they can leadoff and Grady could be moved to 3rd

2 - I trust Guthrie or Sowers as the 5th starter but do I trust Westbrook as the 3...I think we should trade him and demote Johnson, then, bring up one of the young guys for the 5th spot and trade for someone to take Westbrook's (he would look great in a deal for the pitching starved Tampa for Crawford)...I think Willis is unavailable but we need someone like this...maybe Livan Hernandez (although I am not the biggest fan), or the best would be Jason Schmidt

3 - should easy to find, they are a dime a dozen (too bad Shaprio cant find one)

4 - any recommendations here?  probably will have to be some random guy from the Pirates or Marlins

What are your thoughts???

And just imagine this...

1 - Crawford
2 - Blake
3 - Sizemore
4 - Hafner
5 - Martinez
6 - Broussard/Perez
7 - Peralta
8 - Belliard
9 - Boone

1 - Sabathia
2 - Schmidt
3 - Lee
4 - Byrd
5 - Sowers/Guthrie

by Tribe Alive on Jun 13, 2006 11:24 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
This is a great, great hitting team but they are extremely up and down.  There are certain games they have no offense.  It seems like if Sizemore or Hafner dont contribute, this team loses.  A bat to protect Pronk would be key.  Or, better yet, a bat to lead off so Sizemore can move down and protect Pronk.

It is a fact...

by Tribe Alive on Jun 13, 2006 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
Another bat (where?) would help, but it wouldn't have a ripple effect on our bullpen and defense, which I am increasingly convinced are our core problems.

by Jay on Jun 13, 2006 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
Every good offense has some degree of extreme variance in performance.  We were complaining about it in the late 90's, too.  Last week's alternating blowouts were an extreme manifestation of that but almost certainly were just a fluke.

Basically, I don't think our offense is more inconsistent than other great offenses to any significant degree.

by Jay on Jun 13, 2006 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
Any resources this team has, whether they be money, prospects, cap space, etc. would be absolutely wasted by adding more offense. It's absolutely the law of diminishing returns. Complaining the offense is inconsistent is valid, I guess, but there's no formula for making it more consistent. It's essentially a random function and one that generally evens out. If you go and add Soriano (please god no), that doesn't mean the offense will suddenly start scoring 6.5 runs every game instead of 12 one day and none the next. All you can ask from an offense is that it scores the gross amount of runs you expect and puts up the rate stats you expect. The Indians offense is already so good at both of these things that adding more offense is nothing but diminishing returns. Asking an offense to self control, somehow score the right amount of runs on the right days, is a notion so complicated and involving so many factors that there's no way to explain how adding offense would address it. You just have to hope it evens out, which it normally does.

by afh4 on Jun 13, 2006 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
Paul Hoynes writes today that Shapiro is looking for a shortstop via trade - I just don't see that as the answer.  I think you just have to ride Peralta until he comes around, and if defense and pinch-running is what you're looking for in a back-up, Vazquez is sufficient, despite his meltdown Sunday.

What the team needs is one good new player to give it a shot in the arm - some fresh face that isn't tainted with the muck of this 62 game debacle.  I think it's got to be either Sowers or a veteran 8th inning reliever.  Again, jettisoning Johnson and Mota - be it in exchange for cash, players to be named, or gift certificates - will be addition by subtraction.  Johnson's greatest liability may not be his on-field performance so much as this "it's not my fault" attitude he seems to drag with him whereever he goes.

Jay, thanks for the breakdown on that 37 game stretch.  

by G Village on Jun 13, 2006 11:42 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
Excellent analysis of our season so far, Jay.  It's possible that last year's team played so far over their head that we assumed we were a very good team verging on excellence.  Those high expectations on everyone's part (FO, team and fans) may have caused undue pressure on the players to perform when we faltered, and may be contributing to the bewildering play we've seen from some normally solid players.

Maybe we just aren't that good yet.

by LeftyCatcher on Jun 13, 2006 11:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
It's a plausible theory, but I can't buy it.  Not when the team produced 100 Pythagorean wins despite 1500 miserable plate appearances from the Killer B's.  Even given an extreme statistical reading of last season, you would still have to conclude that this team has at least 90-win talent.  And they should be held accountable on that basis.

by Jay on Jun 13, 2006 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
I wonder if Kevin Mench might be available. Shap. has long tried to pry him from the Rangers, and now it appears that Showalter is giving his at bats to Mark DeRosa.

by jdudas on Jun 13, 2006 11:52 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
What would we do with Kevin Mench? Have you noticed that it's pitching we need?

by exileincincy on Jun 13, 2006 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
Well, he would solve the long-term problem that is right field. At the very least, it would allow the Indians to move Blake for a middle reliever.

by jdudas on Jun 13, 2006 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
If I remember correctly, his road splits are pretty terrible. He'd be a good option if he could pitch, but I don't see any reason to use some of our talent to go get him, especially when Michaels is improving.

by Kos @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 14, 2006 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
I don't think that Mench is the answer. Since he went on the tear when he changed shoes (ended May 4th) he has hit 2hr and driven in 11rbi, lost almost 20 pts on his BA and over 100 on his OPS. He is a decent option but not remarkably better than Blake. Crawford is extremely talented but to pry him from the Rays would undoubtedly cost at least two top flight prospects. Jorge Cantu would be a nice pickup and can play all three infield spots (tho not a great SS) is only 23 and already is a solid hitter with good power. It depends oh who you believe as to whether he is available but he too would cost us dearly.

Pitching is really the big problem. Schmidt would be a risk along the same lines as Byrd and Johnson. He has been inconsistent and injury prone the last couple years and is 33 years old. An upgrade? Yes. Worth losing a prospect such as Sowers, Marte or Carmona for? Probably not. Just my thoughts.

Surely we aren't this bad

by Brad D on Jun 13, 2006 2:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
Aside from the fact that Mench is younger than Blake, I'd consider the comparison of the two pretty even.  Especially if you factor in the fact that Mench plays in a great hitter's park and Jacobs Field has played as a pitcher's park the last several years.  

by APV on Jun 13, 2006 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
Jacobs Field a pitchers park!!! HAHAHAHA...dont tell Jason Johnson, Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd, Scott Sauerbeck or Guillermo Mota that...

HAHA...

by Tribe Alive on Jun 13, 2006 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
This team has everything that it needs when it comes to a starting lineup and starting pitching (there is depth, Carmona, Sowers, etc.).  Could we use a better BACKUP MI?  Yes.  Better 4th outfielder?  Yes.  Sure we could use another big bat, but who wouldn't?  That is not easily obtained.  What we really need to do is settle down the bullpen, and I don't know how we do this until we find a reliable 8th inning guy (internally or through a trade).

This team will go on a tear very soon.  I am more and more a believer in that the manager makes a difference in players performance, and Wedge doesn't ignite good play.  (Why else does our record under achieve given our stats, and other teams like the CWS and Cardinals overachieve?)  The Tribe presses and gets off to slow start when the games have meaning (still close to 1st).  This continues until the players feel they are out of contention (ie 10 games back in June or July).  Then they stop worrying about the standings and just play baseball.  Their superior talent starts winning games despite the manager because the players feel the games don't matter.  They get close and the games start meaning more, and they begin to press again because the manager cannot keep them loose.  At least that has been the story the last two years.

The run is coming.  This team has too much talent for it not to.  I'm just afraid it will be too late when it does and/or it will not last long enough.

by dvd1204 on Jun 13, 2006 3:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
Jacobs Field is a pitchers park. No question on that. I doubt that a run is coming. A run is a product of three things: consistent offense, good bullpen work and starters going deep in games. With the possible exception of the offense we simply don't have these things. I would love to be wrong but there is a reason we haven't made a run yet.
Surely we aren't this bad

by Brad D on Jun 13, 2006 5:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
The reason is the manager keeps a tense clubhouse.  That is the point.  When we get far enough behind late enough in the year each game has less "meaning" psychologically where meaningful games are measured in relationship to winning the division or making the playoffs.  (And I know all games actually count the same towards the standings, but they all don't have the same "meaning" or carry the same amount of pressure to a player and the fans for that matter).  Just like we, the fans, know we should be pounding the weak teams, so does the team.  We think every game is a must win against KC because it should be a "gimme" game, and the pressure is then high to perform.  But when all the "gimme" games added up doesn't seem like enough to make the playoffs, the pressure to win that game is greatly reduced and the players play more relaxed, and win because they are better.

I know this seems silly, but there is some reason the Eric Wedge Tribe are consistently inefficient (based on their stats) at winning games, start slow, make a mid-season run, and choke when they get close.  Because I have no quantitative reasons as to why we under achieve and others over achieve, this is my theory.  I'm expecting history to repeat itself.  Whether we like it or not, the offense is great, and the starting pitching is good (JJ will be replaced).  Now the bullpen definitely needs help.  That is the #1 concern right now.

by dvd1204 on Jun 13, 2006 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Your theory makes a lot of sense!
Hello dvd1204, welcome if you're new!

Your theory makes a lot of sense; I've thought of something along those lines as well.  There is something about Wedge and the team that does not "gel"; every year that he has led this team, the team has been too inconsistent, with the offense, with the pitching, with the defense, etc.

Sometimes, they look like "worldbeaters" and could beat any team in baseball, even from past eras.  Other nights, they look like they can't beat a Minor League pitcher or they play defense worse than a bunch of 7 & 8 year olds.  

Granted, every team is going to have peaks and valleys, but under Wedge, there have really been peaks and valleys.  Unfortunately, we seem to have had more valleys than peaks, especially this year.  

I think this team does put added pressure on itself when it's in playoff contention or when it plays a weaker team like KC or even TB a year or two ago (may partly explain why we couldn't beat them during that final week of the 2005 season when our playoff destiny was in our hands.)

For some reason, they can't seem to use that pressure to their advantage like a lot of teams do.  I sometimes think Wedge's managing style may have something to do with it, but that's just a guess.  I really can't explain why they're like that, but based on the last several years with this team, it certainly seems like a plausible theory to explain why they're so inconsistent.

I sure hope they find some way to play consistently well - if it's not the players, what is it?  The manager, the coaching staff, the fundamental approach and focus?  I'm not sure.  

Just my 5 cents. :-)

Take care and "keep" the faith for 2007!

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Jun 14, 2006 3:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
Yeah, it's not just the bullpen, the starters haven't been good.  We've had one excellent starter, and the other 4 have been struggling to get to league average.

The defense hasn't helped, but Johnson has the highest BABIP, and I don't know if it is enough to account for all of his suck.  Lee's is high too, but Byrd and Westbrook can't really blame it.

So you've got 4 guys who are pitching above a replacement level, but below average level.  I think they deserve some of the blame too. On the other hand, they haven't been bad enough that you can get an easy fix by replacing one, unless you aquire a true stud.

by dgcambridge on Jun 13, 2006 6:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Missed Opportunities
While it may not "just" be the bullpen, the bullpen appears to be a pretty large explanatory variable. A simplistic look at the 2005 stats shows at least four relievers with more than 47 appearences who had a sub-3.00 ERA. Matt Miller and Fernando Cabrera, in roughly 20 games each, had sub 2.00 ERAs. Obviously, ERA doesn't account for inhereted runners that scored, and this may not be a direct cause of loss in too many games, but this appears to be a major change between 2005 and 2006. The 2004 team had an awful performance by its bullpen, and that season is eerily reminiscient of this one. Unfortunately, the division has improved since 2004, and the Tribe have to defeat more than just a mediocre Twins team this year.
Let's Go Blue!!

by Ann Arbor Expat on Jun 14, 2006 12:20 PM EDT reply actions  

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