Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Indians will deal Ronnie Belliard to St. Louis:
More to come.
Update [2006-7-30 18:0:54 by Ryan]:It's all but official now: Hector Luna for Ronnie Belliard.
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Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Due to the complicated manner of when a team can negotiate with it's own FA, this will make it easier to re-sign Belliard in the off-season?
I don't think this one is going to go over real well.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Polanco got 4 years, $16M
Belliard will get somewhere near 3 years, $12M.
If the Indians can pluck Luna, he can throw up a .700 something OPS and play second base for 327,000 AND provide backup at shortstop.
by rick @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jul 30, 2006 4:09 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
However, I'm not sure Luna is going to be the answer at 2B. Isn't he too similar to a Joe Inglett to justify handing him the 2B job?
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
I'm a little wary of moves weakening our infield defense (particulary if they don't improve our offense).
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
This makes for an interesting platoon posibility at 2B.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
for the 25-man roster for the next 2 months
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
OK, I'll stop drinking now. :-)
by Mark @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jul 30, 2006 4:40 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by Kos @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jul 30, 2006 4:58 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
result depends mainly on how money is spent if
offseason
Cards losing in top of 8th, 1 more inning of
suspense
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
the season with Belliard?
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
it started with moving Perez, so it's been going
on for over a month now
he has done everything but use the word rebuild
Amazing - I said Luna and a prospect - half-right!
No bragging intended, but I thought maybe Luna and a (minor) prospect for Belliard. Looks like I was half-right - I thought Belliard would be worth a decent prospect, no offense to Luna.
Luna's not bad for a backup (he is almost hitting .300 at .296,) but Belliard is one of the better 2B in the league (especially offensively, and at times, isn't bad defensively,) so I thought a decent prospect would have been attainable.
However, because the Cardinals' farm system is still relatively poor, outside of a few notable prospects, I'm not sure any of their other prospects would be worth getting. So maybe that's why they decided to take Luna.
WTAM 1100 is reporting from the Baltimore media that Belliard could head to St. Louis and Mota could be part of the deal. I would think if Mota is involved, you would have to get another player in that deal - no offense, I can't see where Luna is worth that much, unless the Indians are getting substantial financial relief, but I don't think this deal is giving the Indians that much financial relief, are they?
I know Mota hasn't been good this year, but with his electric arm and the possibility of him doing better against weaker NL lineups, you think he would be worth a prospect of some type.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: Amazing - I said Luna and a prospect - half-ri
I agree that it would be unwise to sell low on Mota, but I wouldn't exactly be heartbroken if he were dealt either.
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
The trade will be announced after the STL game!
WTAM 1100 is reporting that the official trade will be announced after the Cardinals-Cubs game, which is in the bottom of the 7th inning.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by concuss on Jul 30, 2006 5:09 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by Kos @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jul 30, 2006 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by willthompson @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jul 30, 2006 5:14 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
I always enjoyed watching Belliard hit... too bad...
by concuss on Jul 30, 2006 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
According to Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll, Hector Luna will be going the other way if the Ronnie Belliard-to-St. Louis trade is finalized. Maybe. Carroll also said the Yankees were giving up Eric Duncan and Tyler Clippard for Bobby Abreu (which would have been a much better deal for the Phillies). Luna would be a fair return for Cleveland, his original organization.
by Kos @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jul 30, 2006 5:37 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Belliard is an above average second baseman in the league, I don't think there is any questioning that. However, it's time to finally give the new guys a chance, and it's better to do that now rather than next year.
As far as getting Luna, why can't he be our utility backup next season? Peralta at shortstop, Inglett at second base, and Luna as the utility man. Marte will be at third, and Blake can platoon between first and the outfield. I certainly don't want Vasquez back, so that's where Luna fits in.
indignity
Obviously this is irrelevant in the sense of "what can Luna do for us now" but... the principal bugs me..
by concuss on Jul 30, 2006 5:49 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by exileincincy on Jul 30, 2006 6:04 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
"The 26-year-old Luna, known for a solid bat but inconsistent glove, will join the Indians in Boston on Monday. "
Isn't that wonderful?
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
a) could we have held onto belliard and signed him again in the offseason? now, that's highly unlikely.
b) luna could be an interesting bench player. i like having a guy with a strong OBP with speed in the later parts of the game. i also like having a guy who can field :) (and luna doesn't appear to be it).
c) still, there's something intriguing about a guy who can hit 15 HR's and steal 15 bases and play a bunch of different positions. especially when that guy is only 26.
maybe not an awful deal, but a let down since that last three moves by shapiro appeared extremely solid.
please tell me that there is more in store than inglett and luna at second though for next year though.
by willthompson @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jul 30, 2006 6:28 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Luna is a solid hitter against lefties. If nothing else, he and Inglett make for nice insurance in case we fail to acquire a more solid everyday player for 2B before April.
The last thing we'd want to do is to rush AstroCab, who has already been rushed to an alarming degree by his former employers.
Ingluna could make a very reasonable platoon at 2B, at a total cost of less than 900K.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Still, people always expect prospects, Luna is a legitimately useful major league player. Most prospects don't end up being that useful. Goes double for draft picks.
I'm kind of amused that Luna will end the season just about 10 days shy of Super Two status ... obviously not something they could have planned, but you know they had to be aware of it. Maybe it's worse than I thought. Maybe the front office is in fact totally obsessed with Super Two!
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by homelytourist on Jul 31, 2006 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions
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Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
that being said, the deal obviously makes sense in terms of looking forward. since the tribe is obviously (taboo word coming up!) re... um... tooling for the future, seeing what we have on hand is strategically sound.
inglett, crowe, marte, kouzmanoff et al., etc.
but who brings the chutzpah?
by jorge orta on Jul 30, 2006 7:14 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by tmif on Jul 30, 2006 7:25 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
i like having something to anticipate.
but i'm a native --
i NEVER expect to win now.
cubs fans might be able to relate ...
by jorge orta on Jul 30, 2006 7:31 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by bob48burg on Jul 30, 2006 7:42 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
IMO, it's not necessarily a bad move, but with all the problems we've had on defense this year, I'm surprised by it. Maybe we're planning on getting a Gold Glove 1B, and maybe Shapiro thinks Marte and Jhonny will both be excellent in the field in 2007. Still, I'm just surprised that we're now all but locked into this platoon for 2007.
by Kos @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jul 30, 2006 8:00 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
I'd accept this deal if its Shapiro's intention to use this as a plan "B" to not either resigning Ronny B., promotion of AstroCab, or signing of a better defensive 2B (the market is pretty bare, I'm going to go out and say not having Ronny B next year will be a downgrade at the position for us).
But if this is the "answer" for next year, I'm pretty disapointed.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
My thoughts on Luna!
Looking more closely at Luna's stats, I can see that he can hit for some average, can hit for a little power, has some speed, and has fairly good knowledge of the strike zone - a solid combination of skills.
When I think about that, combined with the keen observation of his being used with Inglett as a platoon at 2B, I don't think it's a bad deal. Combine that with the fact that outside of some solid prospects, the rest of the St. Louis system is relatively weak, so any prospect we could have netted for Belliard probably wouldn't have been any more of a sure thing than Luna, and probably less.
Luna is proven to a certain extent in the MLs, unlike any prospect we could have gotten, so I can see why Shapiro made this trade.
This also makes me believe they might spend that money on pitching, particularly a front-of-the-rotation pitcher, which I really believe could help this team be much better, rather than a free agent 2B.
Of course, there could be more to come (Boone, Mota, Hollandsworth) in the next 20 or so hours, not to mention the offseason (Westbrook/Lee/Byrd, etc.) It will be interesting to see what happens.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
I think that people need to slow down on the Belliard/Inglett love. Luna has a better OPS than Belliard this year and plays a lot better 2nd base than Ronnie even though I love the guy. And Super Joe despite his effectiveness in limited ABs, put up a 750 OPS in AAA last year at the age of 27. There is serious doubt whether he can maintain his current hitting. Luna isn't a star by any means but he's a good young 2B who, if we sign a better 2b can be a great utility player.
by Ghostof WillHartley on Jul 30, 2006 8:12 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
- Hector is about to turn 27, so should be entering his prime.
- He's cheap
- He has hit equivently, if not better this year, than Belliard and it doesn't look like he's above his head.
- Most sources I have read have him as an average defensive second baseman, so maybe slightly better than Belliard.
- He's shown inklings of a platoon split this year, and did show one in 2005 (310/385/483 vs. 266/314/354). Not that Belliard didn't, but he wasn't used as a platoon guy b/c of his salary.
- I don't think this trade hurts us next year, and in fact would aid us by saving several million dollars that can be more effectively used elsewhere - if we don't bring Belliard back, of course.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
I'm starting to get concerned about the possibility of having platoons in RF/LF, at C/1B, and at 2B.
Does the presence of Casey Blake and his versatility allow the team to do this?
Understanding, of course, that you don't need an All-Star at every position to win the WS, I would be disappointed by an Inglett/Luna platoon for 2007 as both of those players' values is significantly increased if they remain utility players.
This off-season is going to be very interesting to watch with the way the roster is now shaping up.
If baseballcube is correct, Inglett's OPS was...
Hello Ghostof WillHartley,
I agree that I like the trade.
However, unless thebaseballcube is incorrect, it lists Inglett as having an .841 OPS at AAA Buffalo last year, plus had an .848 OPS at AA back in 2004. His career Minor League OPS is .798, so even if he had put up a .750 OPS at AAA last year, I still would think he could do better than that, and put up at least a .750 OPS in the Majors based on his overall career in the Minors.
Plus, looking at his Minor League career, it takes him a little while to get used to a new level, then his OPS really jumps up, so it wouldn't have surprised me if Inglett's OPS would have started off low, then jumped up a bit over time. Instead though, his OPS has jumped up from the very beginning (.927!)
Therefore, I'm not so sure I have the same doubts you are having about Inglett's hitting ability. I'm not sure he'll keep hitting .330-.350, but I don't think .280-.300 is out of the question, especially if he gets regular playing time.
Plus, look at his nice at-bat against Putz in the 9th inning - how many other Indians' players could you have seen fighting off pitch after pitch from Putz like that? Maybe Hafner, and the way he has been going lately, I'm not sure he would have put up that at-bat either. Another reason why I don't think Inglett's hitting is a fluke.
In fact, Inglett's OPS in the Minors was considerably higher than Luna's, so it wouldn't surprise me if Inglett does the same in the Majors.
While I think Luna is a nice addition, I'm not sure he's superior to Inglett - I think a platoon involving both of them might make them better together than they would be separately - if it works out, Shapiro may have pulled off another solid deal, even though it doesn't have the "flair" of the Choo/Broussard trade he completed a few days ago.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
But looking at Luna's stats...
According to TheBaseballCube, he's just 24. His OPS for '05 and '06 are pretty close to Belliard's.
In 2003, in Akron, he hit .297/.368/.359; not bad for a 21-yr old in AA.
In 2004, as a Rule 5, he spent the year with St. Louis and hit .249/.304/.364; not great, but not disastrous for a 22-yr old with no AAA experience.
(For comparison, Coco Crisp's first shot at MLB, also as a 22-yr old with minimal AAA experience, yielded .260/.314/.386. So Luna is in the ballpark.)
He's got a little bit of speed and base-stealing potential.
For those who want to see Sizemore hit #3, Luna might be useful as a #9 hitter, who can get on base (and run) ahead of Sizemore.
So, yea, it's hard to get too excited about this deal, but maybe Luna isn't a total stiff.
by CaptainEasy on Jul 30, 2006 8:42 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by Tribefan48 on Jul 30, 2006 8:53 PM EDT reply actions
Luna is 26 according to MLB.com, not 24!
CaptainEasy - I seen the same thing on thebaseballcube, but MLB.com has Luna's birthdate being 1980, not 1982 as thebaseballcube mentions. Thebaseballcube has been known to have inaccuracies in the past, and this could be another one of them. So, if that is true, Luna may not be quite that valuable, but he's certainly not bad at 26 years old with some ML experience behind him.
Tribefan48 - Belliard is not a bad player, but considering that the Cardinals' farm system is one of the worst in baseball, outside of some notable prospects, none of whom Belliard would have acquired (I don't think - he's not THAT valuable,) the rest of their prospects are suspect. Luna is probably as much or more of a sure thing than any of the prospects Belliard could have gotten for us.
Personally, I'm amazed at some of the deals Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty has been able to pull off with such a weak farm system, especially when he hasn't traded his top prospects like Anthony Reyes, Colby Rasmus, etc.
The argument could be made that we might have gotten more by trading him to the Padres, who were considering such 2B who could play 3B, like Belliard, but I presume Shapiro looked into that and wasn't fond of what the Padres were offering (i.e. not some of the Padres' best prospects like 2B Josh Barfield or C George Kottaras,) so that's why he made the deal with the Cardinals for Luna.
Personally, I don't think it's a bad trade - see some of my earlier posts on why I don't think it is. :-)
Just my 2 cents.
I think they might be more valuable in a platoon!
While I can understand the concerns about their value as utility players, if the Inglett/Luna platoon at 2B gives us Belliard's production with as good or even a bit better defense, that could help the team be better next year, and at a cheaper price than you would have paid for Belliard.
Besides that, with the money you do save, you can upgrade the pitching, especially the rotation, which will likely need to be done if we want to compete in the AL Central any time soon - Detroit and Minnesota's rotations may actually get better with the likes of Joel Zumaya or Jordan Tata entering the Tigers' rotation and Matt Garza entering the Twins' rotation. Our rotation must be improved - throwing C.C. out there with 4 #3s behind him is not going to consistently compete with and outperform their rotations.
So, if you can upgrade the starting rotation with a front-of-the-rotation arm and still get relatively the same or better performance from 2B, I think this team will be better in 2007.
Plus, how often does Wedge use his bench? Personally, I think it's a bit of a weakness that he doesn't use the bench to rest the regulars more often (Sizemore, Hafner, and Martinez CANNOT play everyday - very few, if any MLers do.)
I think slowly, Wedge is figuring out that Martinez can't catch everyday, so he plays him at 1B a few times a week, but he still doesn't use the bench that often, so what value will Inglett and Luna bring if they just sit on the bench all the time? How can you expect them to help the team when they only get a few ABs a week? We've already experienced that with more accomplished and experienced bench players like Alex Cora, Todd Hollandsworth, and Tim Laker - their offensive contributions weren't much to write home about.
At least in a platoon situation, Inglett and Luna will get regular playing time and likely be able to better produce for the Indians by getting consistent playing time. Inglett certainly has not hurt the Indians by getting regular playing time so far in 2006 - in his last 10 games he's played in (over a period of about 2 weeks,) only ONCE has he gone hitless, while getting 1 hit in 4 games, 2 hits in 3 games, and 3 hits in 2 games. I'd think he be more valuable to us by playing him on a regular basis - otherwise, his bat may become rusty and have less value to us.
If Luna can produce against lefties in a similar fashion, I think an Inglett/Luna split at 2B makes great sense for us.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re:
If they do not, there comes a point when even the most pro-Dolan, pro-Shapiro advocates look for a bigger commitment from ownership.
by The DiaTriber on Jul 30, 2006 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by Tribefan48 on Jul 30, 2006 9:02 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by Tribefan48 on Jul 30, 2006 9:06 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by Kos @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jul 30, 2006 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
I trust Shapiro to spend money wisely, and correctly identify the needs of the club; and he would never give that kind of deal to Schmidt (he's not J.P. Ricciardi).
It's a matter of if the Indians are saving money with these moves, they're going to further alienate their fanbase if their payroll continues to be dwarfed by the White Sox, the Tigers, and even the Twins.
Fair or not, that's the reality.
by The DiaTriber on Jul 30, 2006 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
pitching, pitching, pitching. We need to upgrade the pitching and add one "impact" (take that for whatever you want to take it as) player on offense.
We are going to be in the toughest division next year, and the teams ahead of us are spending more money (but not THAT much more money), we are going to need to upgrade the talent on this team.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Keep in mind that signing free agents isn't free. You're overpaying in two ways: 1) free agents are more expensive BECAUSE you don't have to give up players for them, and 2) depending on the player, you may have to surrender draft picks. If you can find a fair deal for a solid free agent, then neither of these is an issue. However, most of the time, free agents are going to cost much more than they're worth, and you're better off biting the bullet and giving up your own players to trade for a non-free agent.
by Kos @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jul 30, 2006 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
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by Kos @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jul 30, 2006 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
But this year's FA crop is not as poor as last years, (not saying its great, but it is much better than last), They were active last year but did not pull off multiple deals (BJ Ryan, Hoffman, Giles, Nomar) some of it as it turns out was for the better, but I'd have been happy with either of the closers, and Giles on this team instead of who they have now. This years crop should make it easier for us to add some talent even if the top names end up in NY, Chicago, LA or wherever. But they need to add the talent, cause A. Miller will not be ready by the start of next season and that goes for Lofgren as well, and I don't think we have any other front end starters in our minor leagues.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by Kos @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jul 30, 2006 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
I guess I just find it hard for us to trade for a front end rotation guy without giving up Either A. Miller or Lofgren, if Shapiro can pull it off, more power to him, I think he is a very good GM, but aquiring a front end rotation guy is going to push Shapiro to do something I can guess he pretty much despises (for good reason) overpaying (either with money or prospects), based on the premium on SP in the league.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
I don't see either guy being a realistic option for us. After them, it's a bunch of scrubby fourth starters who want $7M a year to pitch as well (or worse) than Paul Byrd. I just don't see much out there that's worth the money, so as much as I hate to give up prospects in a deal, there might not be another option.
by Kos @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jul 31, 2006 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by homelytourist on Jul 31, 2006 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe he will this time around - if he doesn't...
Hello Tribefan48,
I know these are frustrating times, but I can't believe the Indians will just pocket the money - it would cause too much negative publicity and persistent rumors about Dolan being cheap.
Personally, I could definitely see them signing a big-name FA, preferably a dominant starting pitcher, to help them rebound significantly in 2007, without giving up their top prospects and the future.
Of course, I don't think they'll just going to spend it on anyone - if no dominant starting pitcher is worth the money, they may use it on a premium FA OF or 1B, they may use it on several quality relievers, and/or they may save it for the high draft pick they will likely select next year in the 2007 MLB Draft, a prospect that will likely be able to make a substantial difference for the Indians in the next few years (one that could really boost the farm system's ranking and quality - more of an Adam Miller/Chuck Lofgren type impact.)
I think the Indians have a plan in mind on using that saved money - my guess is the starting rotation because we need a dominant starter to team up with C.C. if we are going to make headway in this division and reach the playoffs - C.C. and 4 #3s are not enough against the likes of Minnesota and Detroit.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: Maybe he will this time around - if he doesn't
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Maybe he will this time around - if he doesn't
That said, there are a few intriguing names whom I think are potential bargains: Travis Lee, Woody Williams, Mark Mulder?, Eric Gagne, and our old pal David Riske.
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Maybe he will this time around - if he doesn't
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions
My thoughts!
I agree that the FA market isn't all that great this year, but a Meche, Schmidt, Padilla signing MIGHT be worth a gamble if it's a 3-4 year deal, depending on whether they are healthy or not. Maybe.
Regarding your "bargains" list - Doubtful on Gagne - he just had surgery recently on his arm or shoulder, so he likely is not going anywhere. I also have concerns about Mulder's health - he really has not been the same dominant force with St. Louis like he was with Oakland. I think I would rather sign one of the three above who are performing better this year than Mulder.
Williams might not be bad, though he's not a front-line dominant starter. As for Lee, he wouldn't be a bad pickup at a cheap price, though I don't think he's a regular - I think he does better as a part-time player.
As for Riske, no offense, but I've heard he's lost some MPH off of his fastball. Combine that with his several shaky performances when he had a better fastball and Wedge's lack of trust in him, and I doubt the Indians go after Riske. Especially since they have Guthrie, Brown, Davis, Mastny, Mujica, Carmona, Cabrera all waiting in the wings. That doesn't include guys like Tony Sipp and Rafael Perez either. They all likely won't be in the bullpen next year, but I think the Indians have several more intriguing options than David Riske to consider for their bullpen.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: My thoughts!
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: My thoughts!
by homelytourist on Jul 30, 2006 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Maybe he will this time around - if he doesn't
The gem out thier is going to be Schmidt in my eyes, look we're paying Byrd seven mill a year and he's three years older than Schmidt, Byrd was never as good as Schmidt was and even if it takes a five year deal I'd do it. Is it overpaying, yes, will this team have to overpay for one or two players, in my opinion yes.
Re: Maybe he will this time around - if he doesn't
I think there is an understanding that the team will have to overpay for any free agent, but there are limits.
Re: Maybe he will this time around - if he doesn't
I guess I'm (rightly or wrongly) getting the impression from some on here that it will be ok if they just skip next years FA class, and refuse to make prospects for SP trades where they are going to have to overpay because of the lack of front end SP in the league (I'd perfer the former over the ladder). If this is the case and the point is not to contend next year with the hope of continuing to rebuild, for 2008 than that is fine, I want them to contend next year.
Does anyone know the 2007-08 FA class?
I admit that the 2006-07 FA class isn't that inspiring, though there may be a decent sign or two on that list.
Does anyone know the upcoming 2007-2008 FA class? - Anyone have a link?
If we can't sign a dominating frontline starter, then I would rather trade Lee for a good package (see if we could get a #1 or #2 pitching prospect in return) and possibly sign a decent starter like Woody Williams.
I'd really rather wait for Miller and Lofgren to arrive rather than trade them for pitchers who could be good, but have question marks behind them. After all, Miller may be ready as late 2007-early 2008; Lofgren might be ready by late 2008-early 2009. That's not that far away.
Even when I look at Dontrelle's numbers, it seems he was better in 2003 and 2005, but not quite as good in 2004 and 2006. He seems inconsistent, just like C.C., and this is facing weaker NL lineups.
How would he fare against stronger AL lineups? Would his performance decline further? If it does, I'm not sure he'd qualify as a frontline starter - a fringe #2 maybe, but looking at his 2006 numbers, he's well over a H/IP, well under a K/IP, and he's walking one nearly every 3 IP - his K/BB ratio is less than 2/1.
Don't get me wrong; I like Dontrelle, but I'm having second thoughts trading either Miller or Lofgren, along with 2-3 others, for Willis. What if he falters and isn't as good as we expect him to be? Then we weaken ourselves for the future and aren't significantly better in the present either.
I'm starting to think that maybe it would be better to bide our time for Miller and Lofgren, trade Lee, sign someone like a Williams or maybe Mulder on the cheap and hope to catch lightning in a bottle, since I'm not sure any FA signing nor a trade for Willis will definitely make this rotation that much better where we can match up with Minnesota and Detroit. (Yes, we'd be better with Willis, but THAT much better? I'm not sure we can definitely say for sure that we will be significantly improved with Willis or any FA signing.)
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Thanks, hans!
Thanks for the link - I didn't realize that site also had 2007-08 potential free agents as well. :-)
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by Tribefan48 on Jul 30, 2006 9:19 PM EDT reply actions
I can understand Omar, but Thome and Manny...
Hello Tribefan48,
Again, I can understand the frustration, but I'm not sure getting a dominant starting pitcher and signing Thome or Ramirez are exactly the same type of deal.
I'm not sure a dominant starting pitcher will be worth over $100 mill., especially if you only sign him to a 3-4 year deal, especially since Meche is 28, Padilla is 29, and Schmidt is 34. They're not as young as Beckett, so I don't think it would have to be a 5-6 year deal and have to cost that much in order to get a dominant starting pitcher signed.
Plus, Manny's contract came during the 2000-2001 free-spending spree offseason when A-Rod got his monstrous contract; Thome's came in the 2002-2003 offseason where he got an over $100 mill. contract (the only FA that offseason to get one if I remember correctly.) I don't blame Shapiro for letting those two go; the Indians were in the majority of teams who couldn't sign those two without sinking their franchises with several years of mediocrity and futility.
Only the very big markets like the New Yorks and Bostons can comfortably afford those contracts and still build competitive teams. Look at Texas with A-Rod - what happened after they got arguably the best player in baseball? 4 straight years of last place - that could have very well happened to the Indians if they had signed Thome or Manny - where would the money come from to sign the pitching, the rest of the offense, or the draft picks?
Without enough money to sign pitching, Texas fell apart and had to get rid of A-Rod - ironically, they nearly made the playoffs the very next season AFTER they traded A-Rod to the Yankees. Ironically, the Yankees have not won the WS since A-Rod has been on the roster either.
So, signing a very big free agent isn't necessarily the best way to win it all.
No, I'm referring to making a very smart big FA signing - personally, I think it has to be the pitching, not the offense. The offense must be more consistent in fundamental execution and not be prone to so many slumps, but the pieces are more-less here, outside of a complementary piece or another piece at Buffalo (especially at 1B or LF,) but the rotation must be upgraded - there is too big of a gap between C.C. and the other 4 starters; we essentially have no second front-of-the-rotation starter, something we certainly could use to counteract and compete against Minnesota and Detroit's strong starting rotations.
That's how I feel the Indians will greatly improve next year, not by adding another expensive offensive piece. A complementary offensive piece or two would be helpful, but not an expensive FA offensive acquisition in my opinion.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by Tribefan48 on Jul 30, 2006 9:19 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by Tribefan48 on Jul 30, 2006 9:25 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Anyhow, somehow this all seems a little familiar to me: the challenged grammar, the knee-jerk anti-Dolan and anti-Shapiro rants, the irrational defenses of Omar. Could it possibly be? Is that you, TribeInne?
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by Tribefan48 on Jul 30, 2006 9:29 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by Tribefan48 on Jul 30, 2006 9:33 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by Tribefan48 on Jul 30, 2006 9:33 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
no problem.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
The point it, the FO has made a lot of smart decisions and been very fiscally prudent over the last four or so years. We really don't have a bad contract on the team. Which means we should be players on the FA market for a big time player. The problem is there aren't a lot of big time players available and the market over the last several years has forced teams to overpay (at least in terms of risk) on the top talent. Until Shapiro decides its ok to take on the risk of big contract, I don't see them getting any premier FAs or even trading for another team's good player w/bad contract.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Again, I'm probably being picky, or maybe I wanted to flush out my thoughts.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Shapiro has done a good job of taking on short-term risk (e.g. Kevin Millwood) and getting good results. We haven't really invested in any long-term risk outside of arbitration eligible and younger players within the organization.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
It's a lovely sentiment, but it's just not true. Baseball doesn't have a true free market, if such a thing really exists outside the textbooks. More importantly, it's nowhere near a large enough market to weed out inefficiencies in the way that you suggest.
If there were 900 teams in 30 leagues competing for a pool of 20,000 players, then nobody would overpay. As it is, there are only a handful of difference-makers available, and decisions are made not based on long-run value, but short-run perceptions of value. Analysis is difficult and often overruled by impulsive owners gazing at the backs of their childhood baseball cards.
And owners overpay, every significant player, every single year.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
But I stick with my point about nobody overpaying. They pay that money because they percieve it to be worthy, or at least a way that they feel they can compete, or that they NEED to spend the money. Regardless, the player isn't overpayed but in relation to what you or the rest of the baseball universe thinks or values. What it is overpayment to you and me makes sense to somebody else, so it, by definition, isn't overpaying to the buyer. The exception to this, of course, is when teams get caught up in a bidding war with themselves (e.g. Rangers/ARod).
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
In a tightly constrained seller's market, the winner always overpays.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
That team will then pay him according to its successful overvaluation. But they are not overpaying him, which would be something different.
What overpaying is, then, I don't know. Does anyone ever feel, at the outset of a deal, that they have overpaid?
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Does anybody feel they overpaid? I'd guess so, or at least some may experience buyer's remorse. But I suspect than anytime this large of a contract is handed out, it's been debated for quite a while and shouldn't have a large emotional component, which I think is the largest contributer to post purchasing remorse (feeling that they overpaid).
I suppose in any bidding scenario, the "winner" will always have an outlier's perspective on the value of the item - I mean he has to, right? So to most it will seem like overpaying. Anyway, we can't afford to be that outlier unless 1) other teams value a player improperly and we don't, 2) if the other teams who do value him properly don't require his services, and 3) if there are other factors besides money that make him want to play for the tribe (picking up Grady's scraps?)
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Well, at the risk of getting into another semantic disagreement, I don't know if there's any difference between a "large emotional component" and "holding onto a delusional over-valuation for weeks or months."
It's clear to me that deals like Hampton's or A-Rod's or Beltre's could not happen without a large emotional component clouding the judgment of otherwise fairly capable individuals. I don't see how anyone can sit down to assess dispassionately the value of those players, and come up with those numbers.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Somebody stop me - I think just triple alliterated an O.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
The best way to think of players is to think of them as investments, not as goods. Choosing to sign a free agent for a certain salary is essentially agreeing to a futures contract. The most common market of this type is oil: speculators buy and sell contracts to deliver an amount of oil at a certain future time for X amount of dollars, in the hope that the spot price of oil at the time (Y) is higher or lower at the future time, depending on whether you are buying or selling.
If we assume that a team is trying to maximize wins subject to a certain budget constraint (not necessarily true, but let's believe that it's true for all of our sakes), then what teams and GMs are trying to determine is how many wins a player will be worth over the course of the contract. This decision is also made in context of the GMs estimate of the remainder of his team (a team that can count on high runs scored can theoretically expect more Ws from a lesser pitcher (on this note, the high-scoring Indians might be acting economically by trying to get by with lesser pitching).
In short, it's impossible to say whether a player was over- or underpaid at the time of contracting. Furthermore, since, in the above sequence, the economic outcome is to spend to win the exact minimum amount of games to win the league (or perhaps even to qualify for the playoffs), the Yankees probably should pay more for players than the Tribe and take far greater risks.
I've already gone on too long and this is a very dry and complicated subject (futures markets), but I think it's somewhat illustrative. If anyone wants to explore the idea further, I'd be interested.
by dave @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jul 31, 2006 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
- There is a large difference in that in the futures market, multiple parties can bid on one item. Imagine that a future came up for purchase and only the higgest bidder could purchase it. In other words, you can't make a bid and see who made the best bid, only one person can win and see if they did over/under price the player.
- The metrics associated with a players worth are multiple and in flux compared to with the value of a future, which only cares about the dollar. Sure, there are many things that contribute to what the dollar amount will be, and those need to be speculated on. But since there is no single, perfectly understood metric, and, additionally, there are multiple parties making decisions that affect the outcome of your investment (who the Yankees sign, what pitchers/hitters develop in other organization, etc), it is a much more dependent outcome than futures. (Some parts of that could certainly be debated, just throwing it out there).
- It assumes that the owners are more rational creatures than I'm likely to give them credit for. There are pressures to impress the fans, keep your team spirits elevated, win in a constrained time frame, etc., that don't allow most or many or several GM's to take the "proper" viewpoint that geeks like us think they should.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
1. Probably the biggest flaw in the comparison, although I think it is more a problem with trying to explain the "market" for baseball players. Your contrast would exist if we considered a player to be more of a good than a future. It is also true that the "signing process" is like an auction, which is generally how futures work. Whereas we can all go to the Honda dealership and buy an Accord, you can only buy one Travis Hafner. There are close substitutes (say, David Ortiz or Jim Thome) which give similar production, and more imperfect substitutes (say maybe either side of Benuardo) who give less production at a lower "price." If the Accord you want is sold, you can wait and get another one, or get a Camry or Fusion instead, which are fundamentally the same car.
2 and 3. I agree wholeheartedly, but the simplifications made were neccessary to start my thinking for at least the simple outline of the model. Measurement is by far the hardest part of the model.
All for now
by dave @ Let's Go Tribe! on Aug 1, 2006 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
I must say that I have never seen a thread on a baseball blog that compared trading in futures to the valuation of baseball players.
There exists on this blog one of the following (or any combination thereof):
- Some very cerebral individuals who trade the capital markets.
- Some diehard Tribe fans who are looking for any nugget of information to make the 2006 Cleveland Indians season relevant.
- Some bored traders who like discussing the Tribe.
- Business geeks who attempt to extrapolate real world numbers into the "fairytale" that is professional sports.
by SpringTrainingFun on Aug 1, 2006 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
by Jay on Aug 1, 2006 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
So I suppose thats a little of everything.
by dave @ Let's Go Tribe! on Aug 2, 2006 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
5 years. Some teams are higher, some have lower
payrolls, but the average annual increase since
2001 must be in low single digits, no more than
inflation and below the rate of increase in overall baseball revenues.
In addition, the runup in Yankee spending is resulting in additional "tax" payments to many
of the other teams.
When Minnesota, Detroit, and St. Louis have 3 of the best teams, the middle-market excuse is fairly lame.
KC and Pittsburgh's problems are due more to incompetence than to small market.
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
Re: Report: Belliard to St. Louis
rebuilding, there are a lot of pieces still
needed to become a contender and its unrealistic
to fill them all for 2007
the Tigers went from worst to first in 3 years;
it's not yet clear whether Indians or KC will be
the worst this year, but if Shapiro or his replacement learns from Detroit's success, he could put together a contender for 2008
it will be interesting to see how many players
from opening day 2006 are on team opening day
2008; at the current pace, it may be no more than 5 or 6; that should qualify as rebuilding
even if Sizemore and Hafner survive

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