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Signed OF Trot Nixon to a One-Year, $3M Contract
The deal includes $2M in incentives, which are based on playing time. He'll receive $250k for making 200 plate appearances, and then an additional $250K for each 50 plate appearances after that. The earnings are peaked at 550 plate appearances, but a number of things (platoons, durability) aren't going to allow him to reach that mark.
Let me get one thing out of the way before I get to Nixon's game: I'm not a huge long-term fan of Shin-Soo Choo. He has several major-league quality tools, but nothing that he does really stands out. With his arm, he's best served in right field, but I don't know if he'll hit for all that much power. He has holes in his swing. And although he has speed, hasn't been much of a base-stealer in the minors.
That being said, I think he'd be more productive this year than Nixon. Why? Nixon just can't stay healthy.
Trot is still a good defensive outfielder, probably even at this point better than Choo. He's had to play in probably the toughest right field in baseball his entire career, so playing the very conventional right field at the Jake won't be an issue. When he's been healthy, he's hit right-handers very well, and he can take a walk as well as make contact when needed. The Indians were planning on having Casey Blake play right field against left-handers, so they have a platoon partner on hand.
The Indians are trumpeting Nixon's post-season experience, which only matters if he's good enough to help the Indians get there in the first place.
But I still go back to his durability. Nixon's going to turn 33 in April, and he hasn't been able to stay off the DL for an entire season since 2003. I guess in some ways this is good for Shin-Soo Choo because it's not really matter of if, but when he gets another chance. Choo doesn't have anything to prove in AAA, and all this does is delay his full-time debut another season. He does become a trading chip, and if the Indians have already decided he's not part of the long-term plans, it might be better to stash him in AAA and let him put up some nice numbers.
This signing is pretty low-risk, and the money wasn't going to be used anywhere else. If Nixon gets hurt for an extended period of time, then Choo gets his shot anyway. Probably the worst case scenario is if Nixon tries to play his way through an injury, like he did last season. The move gives the Indians more depth, but besides that, was unnecessary.
Designated RHP Jeremy Guthrie for Assignment
This was going to happen sooner than later given the roster configuration. Guthrie's going to get claimed on waivers: for all his problems, he still has good stuff, and most importantly has been pretty durable. The Indians should be able to work a trade, and I'd be pretty disappointed if they didn't.
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So I think coming to the conclusion that the money would not be used isn't wise, this is also the major reason why I find this signing so disturbing.
There is no telling what this team will need come June/July, but with the roster they were putting onto the field as of 24 hours ago, I can confidently state that the OF was one of the deepest, if not THE deepest position on this team(5 OFers on the ML roster, atleast 1 capable in the minors).
I can understand where Shapiro is coming from with wanting a playoff pitcher and that follows suit with what he has done to this point this offseason.
As everyone mentioned in the thread below, its probable that there is a trade on the horizen.
by Brandini on Jan 19, 2007 8:33 PM EST reply actions
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by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 19, 2007 8:46 PM EST up reply actions
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by The DiaTriber on Jan 19, 2007 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
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I'll use the example of $9M.
A player who has a contract which is worth $9M (assuming all bonus' apply). Contracts are paid on the 1st and 15th of each month, which isn't much of a factor, but worth noting. Contracts are typically paid out evenly throughout the season. So that means, a player who has a contract of $9M will presumably make $4.5M in the first half and $4.5M in the second half, or about $1.5M a month. A trade at the trade deadline (typically July 31st) leaves two months of pay remaining...Follow me here...Two months is worth about $3M...
So the Indians still have that $3M kicking around in their "bank account" and can now sign a "$9M player", or up to $15M considering they are willing to pay Nixon up to $5.
This formula may not be perfect considering there are other payouts involved in trades, options and bonus' that may not make press, but it is pretty close. $3M is $3M in April and in August. But a contract lessens as the season goes along.
by Brandini on Jan 19, 2007 9:19 PM EST up reply actions
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To me, this is small potatoes against long-term flexibility. Every one of their free agent signings except Dellucci could be let go after the season, leaving more money for a possible Hafner or Sabathia extension. That's mainly to what I was referring to.
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by Brandini on Jan 19, 2007 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
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My complaints are in the uses of the player resources. The money issue pales in comparison, at least as far as I'm concerned. I see a 33-year-old Nixon essentially as valuable as Choo, and that isn't that valuable. In fact, I'd go as far to say that neither player will be the everyday right fielder by the end of the season. If Ryan Garko could play acceptable defense, he'd be playing first and Casey Blake would be in right. Now there's two players standing in the way of that configuration.
This is Shapiro having money to spend and no real need to spend it on. Mark Mulder, who was essentially next year's fifth starter, was supposed to have received the money.
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Although I will agree that Nixons playoff experience and pennent race knowledge will help this team, I just feel as though the money could have been better spent. However, if it is true that this deal(maybe combined with say Hernandez's) would not affect the team being able to bring in a trade deadline player, they my initial comment is bogus.
by Brandini on Jan 19, 2007 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
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it's a very interesting team right now, and they seem to have room to maneuver in almost any direction--as i see it, they could as easily lose 90 games as win 90 games---i hope the latter--to improve at all with such slim pickings in this years free agent market, would be very impressive; add in the minor league talent and i think we have the makings of a deal somewhere down the road.
by the way--i still dont understand brandinis math on how a 3mm contract is really a 9mm contract.
by rustyparts on Jan 20, 2007 8:04 AM EST up reply actions
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$3M dollars in the Indians "bank" is $3M today, and $3M on July 31st. A player who is signed in 2007 for a $9M contract gets paid about $1.5M a month as MLB pays out the contract in equal amount(barring there aren't any strange bonus or unknown incentives). The "pay days" are the 1st and 15th of each month and as mentioned, for a $9M player will total $1.5M per month. August+September=$1.5M+$1.5M=$3M. It is not as if the player is paid out their entire contract on the final day of the season, or if they get traded they receive two $9M contracts, rather, they are literally on a $9M salary and are paid accordingly.
by Brandini on Jan 20, 2007 9:14 AM EST up reply actions
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The hope is that Nixon becomes Boone only he can still play. Last year there were certain times when certain things needed to be said in the clubhouse but weren't because GS was too young, it wasn't TH's style and AB sucked too thoroughly that he wasn't worth listening to. VM tried to fill that role but... Nixon is supposed to be that guy. I've been told ownership is on board that if Trot plays like Boone that the leash will be short and Choo will be up...
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If Nixon is on pace to max out the incentives, its unlikely he's hurt or sucking, so I have no problem with the $2 million of incentives. But committing the $3 million today does rule out some higher-end opportunities mid-season, if Nixon doesn't work out.
by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Jan 19, 2007 9:19 PM EST up reply actions
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Good point...
by Brandini on Jan 19, 2007 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
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The money is only spent if you spend it. If the tribe is looking to add a piece at the end of July it will be because they are in contention. And if that is the case I would guess that attendance and viewership on STO will both be up and revenue will be on the high side of expectations. Also, I think at this point both ownership and management (especially) will be eager to take advantage of their good fortune and spend a little extra. Another way to look it is that they will only have spent an extra $1.5 MM as compared to $4.5MM that point that the $9MM contact would have cost. And it doesn't seem that the $2MM wasted on JJ last year had detrimental effects on spending this year.
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by Brandini on Jan 19, 2007 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
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Last year, when the team wasn't able to sign the FA it wanted to it said that it would give them more flexibility at the deadline to make an addition. as we all know, they fell out of contention and ended up dumping not adding at the deadline. if the 3m for nixon allows them to contend leading up to the deadline, then money for another addidtion i suspect would be found.
Moreover, at the deadline, you don't simply have to pay money for such an addition, you also ususally have to overpay in prospects too.
another thing i notice, dolan (and FO) get called out on a regular basis for not spending money. they also get called out for spending money, when it's not on superstars, suddenly wanting dolan to be a spendthrift . it seems like you always hear crazy stuff like, "if you take the money bryd, michaels, nixon, and dellucci make and add it together, you could have Manny instead". or "why sign nixon for 3M now when you could trade for tim hudson at the deadline instead"...
certain players are available for a certain price (money and/or players) and then they have to want to come to cleveland, all possible acquisitions of course being predicated on need and budget. for what was out there, i think shaprio came away after this offseason with quite the haul for quite the bargain.
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by KeithHernandez on Jan 19, 2007 9:53 PM EST reply actions
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Of course, I also agree with Ryan that his ceiling might not actually be that high and that his value might be at its peak after an (extended) productive tour at Buffalo. This is particularly the case if Shapiro's end-game involves dealing Choo for other commodities.
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9 times out of 10 I would take inclining potential and unknown return over declining value and injury risk.
by 5tribetipies on Jan 20, 2007 2:01 AM EST up reply actions
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If Nixon can play as well as he has in the past, particularly in the first third of the season-- and his play in the first two months of the season is usually outstanding-- he could really help. This is one thing I really like about Nixon; we have so many players who start slowly, and he doesn't ( link ).
The only thing that doesn't sit well here is that Choo hit decently for us last season, and he seems to be ready to be a regular in the majors. After last year Choo had the 8th best OBP MLE in AAA and the 6th best OPS ( link ). He's not going to do much better than that with another year in the minors. Despite that fact, we seem to be turning Choo into a depth player for the upcoming season. With Nixon's injury history it's a good bet he'll still get some AB's in Cleveland and we'll see how he takes advantage of whatever opportunities he gets.
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So you're saying that, as long as he can play like a $9 million player for 1/3 of the season, it's okay to pay him $3 million? Interesting.
After last year Choo had the 8th best OBP MLE in AAA and the 6th best OPS ( link ).
Nice catch. And as a bonus, kind of hilarious to see Josh Phelps, Luke Scott and Ryan Ludwick rounding out the Top Ten.
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If Nixon can bounce back, at least most of the way, he can put up some pretty respectable numbers, and do it reasonably inexpensively. It's a bit of a gamble, but if it doesn't pan out, there are plenty of OF's in Buffalo...
I recall reading in Bill James' extract (I think it was after the '85 season) how the Blue Jays realized that talent isn't necessarily scarce; they won the AL East with a 3B platoon of Rance Mulliniks and Garth Iorg, who hit .295 and .312.
I think Shapiro is taking a similar approach.
It makes some sense, but... when Delluci and Nixon start, we're going to see a lot of lefty relievers; hopefully, Sizemore continues to improve vs. LHP. This also suggests that Luna, who has a lifetime .762 vs. LHP, is likely to be the backup IF/emergency OF.
by CaptainEasy on Jan 19, 2007 11:27 PM EST reply actions
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by rustyparts on Jan 20, 2007 8:28 AM EST up reply actions
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We need Trot to play around 100 games. He's only NOT played that many once in his career, as "injury-plagued" as its been.
So really, where's the problem?
by one size more on Jan 19, 2007 11:48 PM EST reply actions
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It's not just his DL injuries that matter but all the other nagging ones in their entirety. Due to the way he has played, he has the body of a 40 year old. If he gets one or two nagging injuries than we can kiss goodbye to the possibility of his power returning...
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by 5tribetipies on Jan 20, 2007 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
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I think it would fit Hafner or Martinez more!
More so than Trot, I think it would fit Hafner, Martinez, or Sabathia more - the reason why is because, they've been Indians for many years (especially CC) - I think that factors into being a leader as well. Trot may have experience in that regard, but that was in Boston, not here in Cleveland.
I think more players will look toward those who have been with an organization for a while to be leaders of that team, not necessarily a newcomer. Trot can lend his experiences, but who do you think of when you think of the Indians - Trot Nixon, or Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, and C.C. Sabathia. Even Grady Sizemore might be looked more upon as a leader of the Indians than Trot Nixon, just because Grady has been here. Granted, that might be from a fan's perspective, but the players, both old and new, know who's been with this organization for a while and who hasn't - which group of players would you likely turn to for advice in terms of being a Cleveland Indian. For baseball knowledge, yes, you might ask Trot some questions, but in terms of being an Indian, how the atmosphere and the clubhouse are, how the teammates react to each other, I would say you'd go to a player who has been an Indian for a few years at least.
I think that is a big key to being a leader on a team - I don't think you can expect a newcomer to become a leader, especially right away. They can assist with their baseball experience and knowledge, but for a true leader to emerge, in my opinion, it has to be someone who has been on that team for a few years, at least.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: I think it would fit Hafner or Martinez more!
Re: I think it would fit Hafner or Martinez more!
Grady, with his Jeteresque aura, seems primed to be a key leader for the team later in the decade, but for the moment, he's still younger than practically the entire roster. Victor emerged as the leader of the new generation of Indians in 2005, but that seemed to evaporate in 2006. I'd speculate that his defensive shortcomings had something to do with it. The main job of a leader is to create an environment of accountability to your teammates. It's hard to do that when you've let a key skill slip, and it's costing the team on the field. On a semi-related note, I think no matter how tremendous a person Boone is, it's hard to lead when you're one of the very worst performers on the whole team, even if it's through no character fault of your own.
So maybe Grady gets older, Victor gets his act together, whatever. I don't know what can solve the leadership problem, or how much of a problem there is or ever was. I know that once we're leading the division, we won't be having this conversation anymore.
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by rustyparts on Jan 21, 2007 7:45 AM EST up reply actions
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Let's give tham another shot and hope that it goes better for us in 2007.
It's as sound a strategy as any...right?
by The DiaTriber on Jan 21, 2007 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
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by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
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i think i read somewhere that the Tribe has a crack medical staff; maybe this is what they've been working on.
by nctribefan on Jan 21, 2007 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
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by Rayman @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 21, 2007 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
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by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 21, 2007 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
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by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
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by woodsmeister on Jan 22, 2007 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
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by Rayman @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 22, 2007 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
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by Rayman @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 22, 2007 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
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by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
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by portlandtribefan on Jan 21, 2007 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
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Last week, BP's Kevin Goldstein published his list of the Indians Top Ten prospects. For each team, in addition to a Top Ten Prospect list, he also ranks all the organization's best talent, majors and minors, who are 25 years old or younger. Here's what he had to say about the Indians in this regard:
Wowsa. Most of these extra lists have had 1-3 candidates for inclusion, while the Indians added seven, and an eighth, righthander Fausto Carmona, who the club still has strong faith in, would rank 11th.
I don't know how to say it any better than "wowsa" -- and that list didn't even include Hafner, Martinez and Crisp -- three of the best players who have established themselves on Wedge's watch.
The idea that Wedge is weak in this area is equivalent to saying that Pronk can't hit righties. It's the opposite of "beyond contradiction." It's "beyond diction" I guess.
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by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
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by fleerdon on Jan 20, 2007 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
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by nctribefan on Jan 20, 2007 12:07 AM EST reply actions
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by Bogalusa Bomber on Jan 20, 2007 2:26 AM EST up reply actions
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by exileincincy on Jan 20, 2007 8:00 AM EST reply actions
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by 5tribetipies on Jan 20, 2007 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
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by rustyparts on Jan 21, 2007 7:48 AM EST up reply actions
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This is a minor point (no pun intended), but he did swipe 40 in AA, then 20 and 26 in two AAA seasons. Not huge totals by any means, but good for a guy with a little power. One could surmise that as/if he gets adjusted in the majors, he would be good for about 20 SB--which only becomes impressive for an outfielder if he develops 20-25 HR power, which is doubtful. Also, his K/BB rates in the minors never even got to the 2/1 level, suggesting that his 46/18 rate in his first major-league stint might be the sign of growing pains rather than contact problems.
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Let's not forget that in 2005, Choo, at age 23, put together some stats very similar to Nixon's '98 stats with the PawSox: .408 OBA and .545 slugging. (The comparison breaks down with the K/BB ratios, however.)
Bottom line: I'm not going to knock this trade because the Blixon platoon in right seems okay to me. But I do wonder why the Tribe is so intent on blocking young players at the very moment they need to be letting them show what they can do. Okay, I'll say it: Brian Giles.
by ken from alexandria on Jan 20, 2007 8:40 AM EST up reply actions
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Where my math is different than DocNo's is the number of years as starters. By my count Peralta will be a 3-yr starter, Barfield a 2-yr, and Marte a 1-year (still all very light in experience).
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Barfield is more solid v. LHP, and OBP drops significantly v. RHP.
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by ken from alexandria on Jan 20, 2007 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
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These are not the kind of performances that force a team's hand -- unlike, say, Kouzmanoff in 2006. The following year, he had a 989 OPS, he was promoted July 12 and never looked back. Slowed a little, yes. But "blocked" implies that he unequivocally was ready for the majors. I don't see that in the numbers.
PLEASE CONTACT ME
I would appreciate it.
Chris McDonnell
chris@bigdawgbaseball.com
Big Dawg Baseball
by Chris McDonnell on Jan 20, 2007 8:35 AM EST reply actions
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everyone,
this Trot signing seems so out of character for the Indians since they usually watch every $1M so tight. It seems like an Aaron Boone category deal but Trot does seem to play hard all the time.
Diving into walls will shorten a career.
Combined with the other pitcher signings, it seems the club is looking at this year and maybe next year as the contention window before we lose some big money free agents like Haf, Westbrook, and CC.
Hopefully the club contends at a high level, goes deep into the post season and we get big upside money from STO/attendence/etc to sign one or two of those guys.
Does anyone think the Tribe can gen the cash needed to keep these guys or will the Dolan's just not pay the kind of money needed to any one player?
Thoughts?
by Dallas Tribe on Jan 20, 2007 12:10 PM EST reply actions
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by rustyparts on Jan 21, 2007 7:57 AM EST up reply actions
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ok, so given the MLB business model, our 16th market position, out bidding LA and NY is not going to happen for all three CC, Westbrook, and Haf.
It seems Haf is our only big bopper so it would be good to keep him somehow.
Too be honest CC's comments didn't seem to encouraging about staying "....big decisions to make.." or something like that. We've heard this before.
I don't think Shapiro has a choice but to trade CC or Westbrook if he does not think he has a chance to sign one or both of them.
by Dallas Tribe on Jan 21, 2007 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
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I like the move because at the very least, we know what won't get (high strikeouts) and worst case scenario becomes playing prospects who already have some major league experience.
by buckwild460 on Jan 20, 2007 12:41 PM EST reply actions
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Here's one guy who thinks Choo is Grade A and will develop into a power hitter:
http://detectovision.com/?p=622
...at least he felt that way while Choo was still a Mariner. Not sure if I totally agree with him...I'd like to see the ability to hit lefties and the power before I'd rank him too high. So far, he's got a platooner/4th OF future, imo.
The Legend of Choo
lol
by homelytourist on Jan 21, 2007 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
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*They probably had more cash to work with then anticipated after the offseason shopping was done (and Mulder chose St. Louis)
*PECOTA, ZIPS, and Bill James basically have them both washing out in terms of OPS, but I think they're all under-reporting Nixon's SLG PCT because of Fenway's deep right field
*To what Ryan said, I too would agree that Nixon is ever so slightly better than Choo defensively
*Maybe they are more alarmed about Choo striking out in one third of at bats then we think
*Nixon was quoted as saying he always loved hitting at the Jake, although I don't know his numbers there
*Obviously there was some concern over the number of 1st/2nd/3rd-year players in the field (warranted or not)
*Maybe this forecasts a deal, maybe not
And all of this is moot if Nixon can't stay healthy.
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.242/.315/.535 in 99 AB.
by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 20, 2007 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
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by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 20, 2007 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
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By the way, a minor point, for PECOTA at least, you can look at their "equivalents" which should take the Fenway dip out of Nixon's numbers. Or look at EQA, where Choo is projected at .285, and Nixon at .273.
I'm interested to hear why people are projecting Nixon's defense to be better.
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http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/sports/baseball/mlb/cleveland_indians/16506070.htm
Pluto (the hack i trust more than the other, bigger hacks) at least assumes that with the new RF configuration, Garko will be the other half of the 1B platoon (as opposed to the 'Victor gets regular starts at 1B' fantasy).
Makes sense to me. Signing Trotts seems to increase Garko's chance of making the roster. More important to have a RH bat on the bench (whereas Choo wasn't considered to be THAT much of a liability against LHP).
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Perhaps more important is the backup IF position.
If they give the job to Luna, his ability to play third should assure Garko a spot. I don't think we'll depend on Blake or Inglett to backup Marte. If we have to grab another backup SS, HIS versatilty would determine who we needed to keep between Luna, Inglett, or Garko.
I'm hoping Jhonny, Hector, and Victor ALL show improved defensive play in the spring, allowing us to keep Garko's bat available on the big league bench.
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For that, and that moment alone, Selby will forever be remembered fondly.
by The DiaTriber on Jan 20, 2007 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
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I think he hit .220 after that.
by Dallas Tribe on Jan 20, 2007 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
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by The DiaTriber on Jan 20, 2007 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
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by rustyparts on Jan 21, 2007 8:15 AM EST up reply actions
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by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
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To say this, while more than one national expert consider the Indians the favorites, is just rampant pessimism. To hem and haw about "flaws in the lineup," which is the runaway favorite to be the best in the division, is more of a neurotic tic than an opinion. Maybe you're the one who needs to read your own posts more closely.
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by Bogalusa Bomber on Jan 21, 2007 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
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by 5tribetipies on Jan 21, 2007 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
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We're your 2007 Indians! We'd be lucky to win the wild card
Tribe baseball: most likely worse overall!
Come out to the Jake, it's more or less a crap shoot!
Or course, they thing is, you're probably right. By which I mean, the chance that the Indians win the division is less than 50%. No one in this division is a more than 50% favorite. When BP put up there playoff odds at the start of 2006, only one team (the A's) was given better than 50% to win their division. Moreso, only three teams had over a 50% chance of making the playoffs in any way, with the A's topping out at 62%. This just in: the Suns probably won't win the NBA title, and the Patriots probably won't win the Super Bowl.
My point is, feel free to keep saying that the Tribe won't win it all, and won't win the division, and won't win the wild card. You're more likely than not to be patting yourself on the back next year, and gloating on this board. But we don't care.
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If we have a 50% chance of winning the division, with 3 other serious competitors, that means we are the favorite. I'll take that.
How about some more good PR quotes:
Swiss cheese has nothing on our defense.
Tribe Baseball: Sure the team is terrible, but at least the food is bad
Don't Expect Heaven in '07
by Bogalusa Bomber on Jan 22, 2007 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
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by Bogalusa Bomber on Jan 22, 2007 8:06 AM EST up reply actions
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overall I see the transactions as giving us much more run scoring with OBP and some added power, less batting order dead spots, a solid rotation, and high probability/hope in the bullpen.
If Peralta has his shoes weighted in concrete again, you're right about ass bite. I saw him play in TX and he just didn't look like a ss.
We need a ss and a closer to emerge to win in the post season.
If it looks like we can't sign Westbrook or CC, what about trading one of them for a top ss and bring up one of our AAA pitchers? Or is it too late for a trade?
by Dallas Tribe on Jan 21, 2007 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
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And how many prominent LHP's are there in the Central? Santana. Buehrle. Rogers. Maroth. Finished.
If the pitching (and bullpen) holds together reasonably well, the defense should be better, and the offense should be on a rampage.
Nay-say as you will, but this team is to be reckoned with.
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As is, we have a fairly balanced rotation ourselves (two righties, three lefties) so I'm not sure we'd be effected the same way as the rest of the rotations in the division which all have more righties than lefties.
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"There are people here who are more obnoxious than you, but nobody posts comments with zero basis in reality more than you do ..."
Jay, please be more explicit and tell us you REALLY feel ?
by SpringTrainingFun on Jan 24, 2007 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
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I don't see how that's possible. Nixon, if he's healthy, is one of the better right fielders around. The only obvious "downgrade" is Michaels to Dellucci, and that's not going overshadow the infield gains.
This team has the potential to win 85-90 games but that clearly will not be enough to win the division and would be lucky to win the wild card spot.
Why not? There's four pretty good teams in the AL Central, and thanks to the unbalanced schedule, it'll be very difficult for two teams to both win more than 90 games.
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You see holes in a lineup that scored the second most runs in the league last year and got better over the offseason? You see holes in a bullpen that, even if Brandini thinks the money could have gone elsewhere, without argument got better in the offseason as well?
Divine intervention to be close? Use your head a little bit. We got better, Detroit played over their heads last year and the White Sox and Twins are arguably worse than we are, not better. So, are you pessimistic? Yes. I am not even a homer and I can see that.
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by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
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by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
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by CaptainEasy on Jan 20, 2007 11:37 PM EST up reply actions
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Each of them has something to prove after their departures from Boston. And, they are young enough to have something left in the tank to do it.
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I agree, we replaced young and a little goofy inexperienced/inconsistent players with true pros; they'll help the players (and maybe Wedge) tremendously with leadership, if they are healthy.
by Dallas Tribe on Jan 21, 2007 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
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But I digress ......
Do I like the move? I'm not thrilled with it but I think it will work out for the best barring injuries (which you can say about most deals btw). I liked Choo, but I also see why the FO was reluctant to count on him as a platoon player with the holes in his swing he showed late last year.
The thing that has really hurt this tema the last two years has been the god-awful slow starts (even with the 6-1 start last year too). I think with Choo in the lineup, we would have had more of a chance to start out slow because of all tht young players in the lineup (Marte, Barfield, Peralta, and Choo/Garko). That is a lot of young bats that could go cold collectively very easily.
Now our lineups look like this:
vs. LHP
Sizemore CF L
Michaels LF R
Hafner DH L
Martinez 1B S
Blake RF R
Peralta SS R
Shoppach C R
Marte 3B R
Barfield 2B R
vs. RHP
Sizemore CF L
Dellucci LF L
Hafner DH L
Martinez C S
Nixon RF L
Blake 1B R
Peralta SS R
Marte 3B R
Barfield 2B R
Against RHP, we only have 3 young bats. And if Jhonny is closer 2005 and Barfield is similar to 2006, Marte is really our only weak link.
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Or as Bruce Springsteen once said of Kid Leo at an Agora Concert "[Kid Leo]'s praying for more watts. He needs to blow this thing all the way back to New Jersey." I'm getting old.
by Bogalusa Bomber on Jan 22, 2007 2:34 AM EST up reply actions
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by woodsmeister on Jan 22, 2007 8:48 AM EST up reply actions
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by Bogalusa Bomber on Jan 22, 2007 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
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by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 22, 2007 9:57 AM EST up reply actions
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by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 22, 2007 9:57 AM EST up reply actions
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another moment of enlightenment brought to you by Let's Go Tribe.
by nctribefan on Jan 23, 2007 3:08 AM EST up reply actions
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Trot will hit #2 and dellucci will go right before or after Blake. Trot is expected to be the OBP and Dellucci is expected to have a higher SLG.
I would not be surprised if Marte hits 9 agains t LHP and RHP.
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But I am fine with Nixon hitting second and Delluci/Blake protecting Vic.
The reason I put Barfield 9 instead of Marte, is I believe they actually want guys on base in front of Grady. Besides, hitting Barfield 9 is a nice easy way to protect against a sophomore slump. If he slumps, so what, he's hitting 9. I don't know, I'd rather see Barfield 9.
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vs RHP: Sizemore, Nixon, Hafner, Martinez, Dellucci, Blake, Peralta, Marte, Barfield
vs LHP: Sizemore, Michaels, Hafner, Martinez, Blake, Garko, Peralta, Marte, Barfield
The lineup is scarier vs. RHP but also more top-heavy. The lineup is more balanced vs. LHP, who are not going to like having to face Hafner and then six righties, every one of them a legit power threat.
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I'm having trouble waiting for opening day. Perhaps it is because of the way last season turned out, but this offseason seems unusually long.
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RH/LH lineup balance may look better, but results are what matter.
One adjustment COULD be made perhaps....if our leadoff hitter continues to hit .214/.290/.427 vs lefties and Barfield continues to hit them at an
.331/.378/.587 clip. If that trend continues after a couple of months, I'd have to consider dropping Grady to sixth when a lefty starts, and moving Barfield to leadoff(provided he's not needed in the #2 spot).
Grady is almost certain to be moved to the middle when Crowe or another leadoff-type emerges, so a phase-in early next year could be an advantage.
I DO expect some improvement from Grady vs the lefties, perhaps enough that no such move would be considered. And it's certainly premature and maybe a little too optimistic, to assume Barfield will put up those same type numbers in a new league....of course, he WAS in a new league last year....
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there seems to be a perception that Major Leaguers don't like to be shifted around from day to day, but i don't see why it should bother them. Sizemore seems like the sort who wouldn't be too worried about it.
by nctribefan on Jan 23, 2007 3:34 AM EST up reply actions
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i also wonder if the prevalence of platoons in this year's lineup makes bunching RHs or LHs an even better idea, since we'll have a whole bench full of high-percentage guys ready to pinch hit in such late-inning situations.
by nctribefan on Jan 23, 2007 3:35 AM EST up reply actions
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More ABs is more important over a season than getting the batting order the "correct" way through the first time you bat in every game.
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I think we might see Trotman batting second behind Grady, instead of Dellucci.
Looking at their 3-year splits vs righties:
Nixon .297/.378/.471/.849 100/BB 98/K
Dellucci .264/.366/.509/.875 140/BB 242/K
Not a huge difference, but I'd go with the guy less likely to strikeout batting #2, and the guy with more power at #5. Most likely, the spot will be decided in spring training, when we see what these guys have left in the tank.
While Choo may have been fine over the course of the season batting in the 6th spot, as a #2 hitter he'd be a risk at this point in his career. An injury or slump by Dellucci would've probably meant Michaels back at #2 vs righties, or else we'd have had to move up Choo. Signing Nixon allows us to have two capable lefties to bat second in case of injury/slump. By batting Nixon in the #2 hole, I think we may upgrade over Dellucci there, while upgrading over Choo with Dellucci lower down.
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It seems to be generally accepted in the local press and on this board that Vic will get regular starts at 1B vs. LHP. Have we seen any evidence that this will actually be the case? Wasn't that supposed to happen last year too? I just don't see it happenning.
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The young players that underpefrormed were Peralta and Cabrera.
Having "vets" on the team does not assure getting off to a good start.
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Actually, nothing can assure a team getting a good start besides playing good baseball. And both youngsters and veterans can play good baseball.
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If we can get a closer going early out of that group we should be ok.
by Dallas Tribe on Jan 22, 2007 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
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i don't think any of those three guys will be a liability on the mound in April. if their arms don't fall off, they'll be ready to pitch.
by nctribefan on Jan 23, 2007 3:02 AM EST up reply actions
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good point, I feel better.
by Dallas Tribe on Jan 23, 2007 8:38 AM EST up reply actions
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by The DiaTriber on Jan 23, 2007 8:50 AM EST up reply actions
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by nctribefan on Jan 23, 2007 11:24 PM EST up reply actions

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