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Signed OF Trot Nixon to a One-Year, $3M Contract

The deal includes $2M in incentives, which are based on playing time. He'll receive $250k for making 200 plate appearances, and then an additional $250K for each 50 plate appearances after that. The earnings are peaked at 550 plate appearances, but a number of things (platoons, durability) aren't going to allow him to reach that mark.

Let me get one thing out of the way before I get to Nixon's game: I'm not a huge long-term fan of Shin-Soo Choo. He has several major-league quality tools, but nothing that he does really stands out. With his arm, he's best served in right field, but I don't know if he'll hit for all that much power. He has holes in his swing. And although he has speed, hasn't been much of a base-stealer in the minors.

That being said, I think he'd be more productive this year than Nixon. Why? Nixon just can't stay healthy.

Trot is still a good defensive outfielder, probably even at this point better than Choo. He's had to play in probably the toughest right field in baseball his entire career, so playing the very conventional right field at the Jake won't be an issue. When he's been healthy, he's hit right-handers very well, and he can take a walk as well as make contact when needed. The Indians were planning on having Casey Blake play right field against left-handers, so they have a platoon partner on hand.

The Indians are trumpeting Nixon's post-season experience, which only matters if he's good enough to help the Indians get there in the first place.

But I still go back to his durability. Nixon's going to turn 33 in April, and he hasn't been able to stay off the DL for an entire season since 2003. I guess in some ways this is good for Shin-Soo Choo because it's not really matter of if, but when he gets another chance. Choo doesn't have anything to prove in AAA, and all this does is delay his full-time debut another season. He does become a trading chip, and if the Indians have already decided he's not part of the long-term plans, it might be better to stash him in AAA and let him put up some nice numbers.

This signing is pretty low-risk, and the money wasn't going to be used anywhere else. If Nixon gets hurt for an extended period of time, then Choo gets his shot anyway. Probably the worst case scenario is if Nixon tries to play his way through an injury, like he did last season. The move gives the Indians more depth, but besides that, was unnecessary.

Designated RHP Jeremy Guthrie for Assignment

This was going to happen sooner than later given the roster configuration. Guthrie's going to get claimed on waivers: for all his problems, he still has good stuff, and most importantly has been pretty durable. The Indians should be able to work a trade, and I'd be pretty disappointed if they didn't.

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I disagree with your ascertion that the money wasn't going to be used anywhere else.  While you may be correct for the time being, this signing all but ruins the Indians ability to add salary and be a "buyer" at the trade deadline - consider, that $3M now is about the same as a single year contract of $6M and a trade deadline contract of over $7M.  Add in the bonus' - I think another $1M is reasonable - and that is nearing a contract worth $9M!

So I think coming to the conclusion that the money would not be used isn't wise, this is also the major reason why I find this signing so disturbing.
There is no telling what this team will need come June/July, but with the roster they were putting onto the field as of 24 hours ago, I can confidently state that the OF was one of the deepest, if not THE deepest position on this team(5 OFers on the ML roster, atleast 1 capable in the minors).

I can understand where Shapiro is coming from with wanting a playoff pitcher and that follows suit with what he has done to this point this offseason.

As everyone mentioned in the thread below, its probable that there is a trade on the horizen.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Jan 19, 2007 8:33 PM EST reply actions  

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What on earth are you talking about?  How is this a $9M contract?

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 19, 2007 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

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Too many High Lifes...or is that me since I read it 6 times and still didn't get the math?

by The DiaTriber on Jan 19, 2007 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

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Okay, I'll explain.
I'll use the example of $9M.

A player who has a contract which is worth $9M (assuming all bonus' apply).  Contracts are paid on the 1st and 15th of each month, which isn't much of a factor, but worth noting.  Contracts are typically paid out evenly throughout the season.  So that means, a player who has a contract of $9M will presumably make $4.5M in the first half and $4.5M in the second half, or about $1.5M a month.  A trade at the trade deadline (typically July 31st) leaves two months of pay remaining...Follow me here...Two months is worth about $3M...

So the Indians still have that $3M kicking around in their "bank account" and can now sign a "$9M player", or up to $15M considering they are willing to pay Nixon up to $5.

This formula may not be perfect considering there are other payouts involved in trades, options and bonus' that may not make press, but it is pretty close.  $3M is $3M in April and in August.  But a contract lessens as the season goes along.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Jan 19, 2007 9:19 PM EST up reply actions  

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I think you're overreacting in this case. The Indians aren't a large-market team by any means, but I think they'd still be able to take on a average-sized contract in June or July, similar to the one you proposed. And a big trend is for the trading club to pay a portion of the deal in order to get a better prospect.

To me, this is small potatoes against long-term flexibility. Every one of their free agent signings except Dellucci could be let go after the season, leaving more money for a possible Hafner or Sabathia extension. That's mainly to what I was referring to.

by Ryan on Jan 19, 2007 10:33 PM EST up reply actions  

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But don't you think that Nixon is indeed going to be responsible for "blocking" Choo and Garko.  While neither may not be allstar caliber prospects, both should be quality major leaguers whom the Tribe can have as pieces for a contender...However with Nixon aboard - assuming there aren't any other moves - how does the team get a look at players who presumably won't be much, if at all, worse then Nixon?
Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Jan 19, 2007 10:56 PM EST up reply actions  

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Nixon is probably going to block only Choo - Garko is in essentially the same situation as he was before the trade.

My complaints are in the uses of the player resources. The money issue pales in comparison, at least as far as I'm concerned. I see a 33-year-old Nixon essentially as valuable as Choo, and that isn't that valuable. In fact, I'd go as far to say that neither player will be the everyday right fielder by the end of the season. If Ryan Garko could play acceptable defense, he'd be playing first and Casey Blake would be in right. Now there's two players standing in the way of that configuration.

This is Shapiro having money to spend and no real need to spend it on. Mark Mulder, who was essentially next year's fifth starter, was supposed to have received the money.

by Ryan on Jan 19, 2007 11:13 PM EST up reply actions  

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And I agree with your final comment, so why not bank the cash?  Save it for a player that the organization might not otherwise be able to draft.  Save it for the trade deadline and an actual team need...Just because he has the cash, does not mean he has to go out and spend it.  Although it has been mentioned that the bullpen is being put together of a "Big Brother"/"Survivor" deal, I'm not certain that is necessarily the best idea.

Although I will agree that Nixons playoff experience and pennent race knowledge will help this team, I just feel as though the money could have been better spent.  However, if it is true that this deal(maybe combined with say Hernandez's) would not affect the team being able to bring in a trade deadline player, they my initial comment is bogus.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Jan 19, 2007 11:40 PM EST up reply actions  

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just a thought, and i'm probably wrong, but with the signing of nixon and the young outfield prospects we have, is this maybe a prelude to a trade of some kind?  as ryan posted, there is little for choo to accomplish in AAA, and probably not for gutierrez, either--but that is where they are going barring injuries in spring training.

it's a very interesting team right now, and they seem to have room to maneuver in almost any direction--as i see it, they could as easily lose 90 games as win 90 games---i hope the latter--to improve at all with such slim pickings in this years free agent market, would be very impressive; add in the minor league talent and i think we have the makings of a deal somewhere down the road.

by the way--i still dont understand brandinis math on how a 3mm contract is really a 9mm contract.

by rustyparts on Jan 20, 2007 8:04 AM EST up reply actions  

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Okay...I'll try to be brief here.
$3M dollars in the Indians "bank" is $3M today, and $3M on July 31st.  A player who is signed in 2007 for a $9M contract gets paid about $1.5M a month as MLB pays out the contract in equal amount(barring there aren't any strange bonus or unknown incentives).  The "pay days" are the 1st and 15th of each month and as mentioned, for a $9M player will total $1.5M per month.  August+September=$1.5M+$1.5M=$3M.  It is not as if the player is paid out their entire contract on the final day of the season, or if they get traded they receive two $9M contracts, rather, they are literally on a $9M salary and are paid accordingly.
Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Jan 20, 2007 9:14 AM EST up reply actions  

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Nixon as the new Boone.  
The hope is that Nixon becomes Boone only he can still play.  Last year there were certain times when certain things needed to be said in the clubhouse but weren't because GS was too young, it wasn't TH's style and AB sucked too thoroughly that he wasn't worth listening to.  VM tried to fill that role but... Nixon is supposed to be that guy.  I've been told ownership is on board that if Trot plays like Boone that the leash will be short and Choo will be up...

by stuart dean on Jan 20, 2007 8:44 AM EST up reply actions  

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Wait a second.  They could sign a $3 million dollar player now, or trade for a $9 million dollar player on July 31st.  In the latter case, they would have the $9 million dollar player for a third of the season.  One third of a $9 million player's season should be worth, um, $3 million.

by dgcambridge on Jan 20, 2007 2:56 PM EST up reply actions  

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Well, I don't usually do this, but I agree with Brandini, sort of.  You're taking on a $3-$5 million contract right now.  If Nixon is hurt, or sucks, or both, there is no way you get rid of that contract this year, you're on the hook for the whole thing.  Meanwhile, say a guy you really want, a guy who can get you out of second place and into first if you acquire him, becomes available in mid-July.  He's got a $6 million contract.  But he's only under contract for half a season at that point - $3 million.  If you hadn't committed that $3 million to Nixon back in January, you could get a more valuable asset (for a shorter period of time) in mid-season.  

If Nixon is on pace to max out the incentives, its unlikely he's hurt or sucking, so I have no problem with the $2 million of incentives.  But committing the $3 million today does rule out some higher-end opportunities mid-season, if Nixon doesn't work out.

by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Jan 19, 2007 9:19 PM EST up reply actions  

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If Nixon is on pace to max out the incentives, its unlikely he's hurt or sucking

Good point...

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Jan 19, 2007 9:21 PM EST up reply actions  

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Gentlemen,

The money is only spent if you spend it.  If the tribe is looking to add a piece at the end of July it will be because they are in contention.  And if that is the case I would guess that attendance and viewership on STO will both be up and revenue will be on the high side of expectations.  Also, I think at this point both ownership and management (especially) will be eager to take advantage of their good fortune and spend a little extra.  Another way to look it is that they will only have spent an extra $1.5 MM as compared to $4.5MM that point that the $9MM contact would have cost.  And it doesn't seem that the $2MM wasted on JJ last year had detrimental effects on spending this year.

by JK in CBus on Jan 19, 2007 10:29 PM EST up reply actions  

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I think the added money to payroll is in anticipation of making the team better and thus having more seats filled.
Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Jan 19, 2007 10:53 PM EST up reply actions  

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There are major problems with the plan of 'saving' the money to get a player pro-rated at the deadline instead of spending it on nixon now.

Last year, when the team wasn't able to sign the FA it wanted to it said that it would give them more flexibility at the deadline to make an addition.  as we all know, they fell out of contention and ended up dumping not adding at the deadline.  if the 3m for nixon allows them to contend leading up to the deadline, then money for another addidtion i suspect would be found.

Moreover, at the deadline, you don't simply have to pay money for such an addition, you also ususally have to overpay in prospects too.

another thing i notice, dolan (and FO) get called out on a regular basis for not spending money.  they also get called out for spending money, when it's not on superstars, suddenly wanting dolan to be a spendthrift .  it seems like you always hear crazy stuff like, "if you take the money bryd, michaels, nixon, and dellucci make and add it together, you could have Manny instead".  or "why sign nixon for 3M now when you could trade for tim hudson at the deadline instead"...

certain players are available for a certain price (money and/or players) and then they have to want to come to cleveland, all possible acquisitions of course being predicated on need and budget.  for what was out there, i think shaprio came away after this offseason with quite the haul for quite the bargain.

by Brick. on Jan 22, 2007 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

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Is it just me or does Shapiro seem to be taking the same approach to the corner outfield spots that he took with the bullpen? Michaels, Blake, Dellucci, Choo, Nixon, Gutierrez, etc. Throw six good, used-to-be-good, or fringe prospect players at the wall and hope that a couple stick. (With the contracts thrown around this offseason, I think this was probably a wise strategy.)

by KeithHernandez on Jan 19, 2007 9:53 PM EST reply actions  

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I agree with Ryan's closing point that this seems to be an unnecessary move.  That, and the best way to get a handle on Choo might be to give him extended at-bats in Cleveland.  The worry becomes that he rides the Buffalo shuttle, doesn't get into a rhythm, and becomes negatively affected in the process.  

Of course, I also agree with Ryan that his ceiling might not actually be that high and that his value might be at its peak after an (extended) productive tour at Buffalo.  This is particularly the case if Shapiro's end-game involves dealing Choo for other commodities.  

by macasson on Jan 19, 2007 10:26 PM EST reply actions  

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Its really early in Choo's career but if he rides the bus between Buffulo and Cleveland this could turn into a Brandon Phillips ordeal all over again.    (i.e a prospect you traded for give him a short lived failed major league experience then demoted him and continue to use him until his options are out.  I wish this signing would have never happened.  Nixon has had quite a few injuries in his career and never was an everyday player to begin with.  Choo and Nixon both don't hit lefties very well so one of them will have to go and that will be Choo most likely since Wedge likes veterans and will hang with them even if they are struggling. (A. Boone)  I understand Shapiro's jitters when it comes to rookies (young players) because Peralta burned us last year.  That said we shouldn't be afraid to give them a try because they can bring us life.  Veterans are great but youth needs to be served for us to play 162 games and hopefully some more in the playoffs.  Veterans = declining value and more injury risk, Young players = inclining potential, unknown return

9 times out of 10 I would take inclining potential and unknown return over declining value and injury risk.

Swing and a big miss

by 5tribetipies on Jan 20, 2007 2:01 AM EST up reply actions  

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As the offseason began Shapiro talked a bit about wanting a RH hitter with power.  After all the noise of the offseason, Nixon seems to be the veteran still available who best fits the stated need (sort of).

If Nixon can play as well as he has in the past, particularly in the first third of the season-- and his play in the first two months of the season is usually outstanding-- he could really help.  This is one thing I really like about Nixon; we have so many players who start slowly, and he doesn't ( link ).

The only thing that doesn't sit well here is that Choo hit decently for us last season, and he seems to be ready to be a regular in the majors.  After last year Choo had the 8th best OBP MLE in AAA and the 6th best OPS ( link ).  He's not going to do much better than that with another year in the minors. Despite that fact,  we seem to be turning Choo into a depth player for the upcoming season.  With Nixon's injury history it's a good bet he'll still get some AB's in Cleveland and we'll see how he takes advantage of whatever opportunities he gets.

by MTF on Jan 19, 2007 10:49 PM EST reply actions  

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If Nixon can play as well as he has in the past, particularly in the first third of the season

So you're saying that, as long as he can play like a $9 million player for 1/3 of the season, it's okay to pay him $3 million?  Interesting.

After last year Choo had the 8th best OBP MLE in AAA and the 6th best OPS ( link ).

Nice catch.  And as a bonus, kind of hilarious to see Josh Phelps, Luke Scott and Ryan Ludwick rounding out the Top Ten.

by Jay on Jan 19, 2007 11:07 PM EST up reply actions  

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The point obviously being that they've gone as far as they can go in minor league ball as well.  Having finished up with the minor leagues, now you have to decide where they go next.  Choo?  Hopefully Cleveland.  Ludwick and Phelps? Japan, maybe.

by MTF on Jan 20, 2007 7:28 AM EST up reply actions  

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Initially, I wasn't thrilled with this signing.  But I've come up with an angle.  Nixon and Magglio Ordonez are just about the same age; in 2004-2005, Ordonez played just 137 games total, and while he was pretty decent when he played, he wasn't all-star quality.  Last year he bounced back and played 155 games; his numbers weren't as good as his prime, but park factors may have had an impact.

If Nixon can bounce back, at least most of the way, he can put up some pretty respectable numbers, and do it reasonably inexpensively.  It's a bit of a gamble, but if it doesn't pan out, there are plenty of OF's in Buffalo...

I recall reading in Bill James' extract (I think it was after the '85 season) how the Blue Jays realized that talent isn't necessarily scarce; they won the AL East with a 3B platoon of Rance Mulliniks and Garth Iorg, who hit .295 and .312.
I think Shapiro is taking a similar approach.

It makes some sense, but... when Delluci and Nixon start, we're going to see a lot of lefty relievers; hopefully, Sizemore continues to improve vs. LHP.  This also suggests that Luna, who has a lifetime .762 vs. LHP, is likely to be the backup IF/emergency OF.

by CaptainEasy on Jan 19, 2007 11:27 PM EST reply actions  

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i am all for defensive specialists, especially since the tribes defense is...searching for a politically correct word here....suspect?  we have plenty of hitters, in fact, probably too many platoon players who can hit but not play defense and suck up roster spots.  for once we have a very respectable group of starters, i'd like to see them protected a bit, but i dont see it happening.  when is the last time we someone not named omar win a gold glove in cleveland?

by rustyparts on Jan 20, 2007 8:28 AM EST up reply actions  

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Again, I don't see where all of this panic about Trot's injuries is coming from.

We need Trot to play around 100 games. He's only NOT played that many once in his career, as "injury-plagued" as its been.

So really, where's the problem?

by one size more on Jan 19, 2007 11:48 PM EST reply actions  

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must be trots agent

by rustyparts on Jan 20, 2007 8:29 AM EST up reply actions  

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"Again, I don't see where all of this panic about Trot's injuries is coming from."

It's not just his DL injuries that matter but all the other nagging ones in their entirety.  Due to the way he has played, he has the body of a 40 year old.  If he gets one or two nagging injuries than we can kiss goodbye to the possibility of his power returning...

by stuart dean on Jan 20, 2007 8:36 AM EST up reply actions  

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Trot has hit only 27 Hr in his last 938 at bats. I would say his power is gone.  At best his value is veteran leadership, defense and a good batting eye but certainly his power is gone.  This signing is Shapiro worrying about his young players again and not giving them a chance.  Shapiro is great at acquiring young talent but he is not good at handling their careers.  Wedge compounds these problems and does not seem to know how to relate to his players.  Wedge is responsible for the professional development of his young players and he has failed almost every time with the exception being Sizemore.  Wedge is not able to get his players to execute simple baseball plays (ie. hit and run, bunting, hitting the other way, putting the ball in play) he does not handle the pitching staff very well and he seem lost when it comes to working on VMart's throwing problems.  Wedge was a catcher in his career and given that, you would think he could get VMart's footwork straighten out.  I am not total sold that it is VMart's footwork causing his throwing woes however.  This team has some wonderful young talent and we seem to keep throwing up veteran road blocks in their way.  I agree that competition in spring training is a good thing but this is just becoming to much.  How much flexibility do we need, how many veterans do we need to bring these young guys along.  Having all these part time player just means that they are not complete players.  This teams biggest problems are simple fundamentals.  I guess the hope is all these veteran can help them out but if the veterans do not preform all the words of wisdom will ring hollow.
Swing and a big miss

by 5tribetipies on Jan 20, 2007 1:36 PM EST up reply actions  

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Sometime management thinks veteran leadership means having older players, but they are wrong. To have veteran leadership requires the player to have many skills. 1st he must be able to perform at very high level not a part time player. 2nd he must command the respect from the other veterans on the team. 3rd he needs to have the good working relationship with the manager. There are many more, but the question is does this fit Nixon or anyone else on our team?
Fan in Texas

by fanintexas on Jan 20, 2007 9:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I think it would fit Hafner or Martinez more!
Hello fanintexas,

More so than Trot, I think it would fit Hafner, Martinez, or Sabathia more - the reason why is because, they've been Indians for many years (especially CC) - I think that factors into being a leader as well.  Trot may have experience in that regard, but that was in Boston, not here in Cleveland.  

I think more players will look toward those who have been with an organization for a while to be leaders of that team, not necessarily a newcomer.  Trot can lend his experiences, but who do you think of when you think of the Indians - Trot Nixon, or Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, and C.C. Sabathia.  Even Grady Sizemore might be looked more upon as a leader of the Indians than Trot Nixon, just because Grady has been here.  Granted, that might be from a fan's perspective, but the players, both old and new, know who's been with this organization for a while and who hasn't - which group of players would you likely turn to for advice in terms of being a Cleveland Indian.  For baseball knowledge, yes, you might ask Trot some questions, but in terms of being an Indian, how the atmosphere and the clubhouse are, how the teammates react to each other, I would say you'd go to a player who has been an Indian for a few years at least.

I think that is a big key to being a leader on a team - I don't think you can expect a newcomer to become a leader, especially right away.  They can assist with their baseball experience and knowledge, but for a true leader to emerge, in my opinion, it has to be someone who has been on that team for a few years, at least.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Jan 20, 2007 11:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: I think it would fit Hafner or Martinez more!
I agree with you 100% that it should be one of our young vets, but do they have the makeup to tell their team mates to clean up their act, when needed?
Fan in Texas

by fanintexas on Jan 21, 2007 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: I think it would fit Hafner or Martinez more!
While it may not be as common, I think there are plenty of examples of veteran players becoming clubhouse leaders even in their first year with a new team.  Millwood and Elarton were considered two of the biggest leaders on the team in 2005.

Grady, with his Jeteresque aura, seems primed to be a key leader for the team later in the decade, but for the moment, he's still younger than practically the entire roster.  Victor emerged as the leader of the new generation of Indians in 2005, but that seemed to evaporate in 2006.  I'd speculate that his defensive shortcomings had something to do with it.  The main job of a leader is to create an environment of accountability to your teammates.  It's hard to do that when you've let a key skill slip, and it's costing the team on the field.  On a semi-related note, I think no matter how tremendous a person Boone is, it's hard to lead when you're one of the very worst performers on the whole team, even if it's through no character fault of your own.

So maybe Grady gets older, Victor gets his act together, whatever.  I don't know what can solve the leadership problem, or how much of a problem there is or ever was.  I know that once we're leading the division, we won't be having this conversation anymore.

by Jay on Jan 21, 2007 7:40 PM EST up reply actions  

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rumor has it we will be signing satchel paige... and max alvis to platoon with marte at 3B--for veteran leadership of course--never mind they can't catch a stray bingo chip flying their way. negotiations are underway with sam mcdowell and luis tiant for bullpen spots--thereby making a clean sweep of all bullpen spots and sending any young pitcher with potential into dantes inferno.

by rustyparts on Jan 21, 2007 7:45 AM EST up reply actions  

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Yeah, those young pitchers with potential REALLY thrived last year.  The 2006 season wasn't undermined at all by inexperience in the pen.

Let's give tham another shot and hope that it goes better for us in 2007.

It's as sound a strategy as any...right?

by The DiaTriber on Jan 21, 2007 10:41 AM EST up reply actions  

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The young pitchers did as young pitchers will do -- all over the place.  But it was mostly veteran relieves that tanked the season -- Mota, Sauerbeck, Miller, Betancourt.

by Jay on Jan 21, 2007 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

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im good with the moves we have made, don't get me wrong--hell, its not my money--but do you think we might keep one or two younger guys around to kind of grow at the actual major league level or see if they are up to that challenge?

by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 10:12 AM EST up reply actions  

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if we could somehow re-animate Satchel Paige, i think he might outperform Paul Byrd.  he could definitely go deeper into games than Cliff Lee.  i for one am all for it.

i think i read somewhere that the Tribe has a crack medical staff; maybe this is what they've been working on.

by nctribefan on Jan 21, 2007 4:55 PM EST up reply actions  

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That's not a bad idea. You go dig up Hal Trosky, i'll get working on Nap Lajoie.
If I had a nickel for every time I heard "...and Victor Martinez grounds into a double play", i'd be rich.

by Rayman @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 21, 2007 6:46 PM EST up reply actions  

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Larry Doby would look nice in left.
Railing against the sacrifice bunt since 2000.

by jdudas on Jan 21, 2007 9:14 PM EST up reply actions  

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Hal Trosky isn't walking through that door.  Nap Lajoie isn't walking through that door.  Larry Doby isn't walking through that door.  And if you expect them to walk through that door, they're going to be gray and old.  What we are is young, exciting, hard-working, and we're going to improve.  People don't realize that, and as soon as they realize those three guys are not coming through that door, the better this town will be for all of us because there are young guys in that room playing their asses off.

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 21, 2007 9:34 PM EST up reply actions  

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Yeah, but is Rocky coming back?

by kov on Jan 21, 2007 10:21 PM EST up reply actions  

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yeah; I think it was a joke.
Railing against the sacrifice bunt since 2000.

by jdudas on Jan 22, 2007 7:27 AM EST up reply actions  

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oops; always check the link before responding...
Railing against the sacrifice bunt since 2000.

by jdudas on Jan 22, 2007 7:28 AM EST up reply actions  

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the fab 4 relievers we signed are young?

by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

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No, but they are bionic, like Steve Austin.
The Unofficial Andy Marte, Joe Borowski and Mark Shapiro apologist.

by woodsmeister on Jan 22, 2007 10:49 AM EST up reply actions  

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Crikey!
If I had a nickel for every time I heard "...and Victor Martinez grounds into a double play", i'd be rich.

by Rayman @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 22, 2007 1:49 PM EST up reply actions  

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Whoops, that's Steve Irwin. Sam Adams has got me all in a tizzy.
If I had a nickel for every time I heard "...and Victor Martinez grounds into a double play", i'd be rich.

by Rayman @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 22, 2007 1:54 PM EST up reply actions  

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its amazing cloning technology today

by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 10:14 AM EST up reply actions  

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Pretty well put, albeit depressing.  I don't think you can put all the blame on Wedge for lack of player development without giving him credit for C.C., Hafner, Crisp, Marte, and Peralta version 2005.  He well-earned such a great rep as a AAA manager, that's one of the biggest reason he was promoted.

by portlandtribefan on Jan 21, 2007 4:51 PM EST up reply actions  

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The current Indians absolutely lead the league in young talent, and they have (nearly) all been acquired on Shapiro's watch and established as major leaguers on Wedge's watch.  It is true that Wedge and his team bear some responsibility for Jhonny and Victor's pronounced troubles this past season, but Wedge's overall record for nurturing young talent is unmatched in the major leagues at this point.

Last week, BP's Kevin Goldstein published his list of the Indians Top Ten prospects.  For each team, in addition to a Top Ten Prospect list, he also ranks all the organization's best talent, majors and minors, who are 25 years old or younger.  Here's what he had to say about the Indians in this regard:

Wowsa. Most of these extra lists have had 1-3 candidates for inclusion, while the Indians added seven, and an eighth, righthander Fausto Carmona, who the club still has strong faith in, would rank 11th.

I don't know how to say it any better than "wowsa" -- and that list didn't even include Hafner, Martinez and Crisp -- three of the best players who have established themselves on Wedge's watch.

The idea that Wedge is weak in this area is equivalent to saying that Pronk can't hit righties.  It's the opposite of "beyond contradiction."  It's "beyond diction" I guess.

by Jay on Jan 21, 2007 7:46 PM EST up reply actions  

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i have said over and over that this is a first class organization in drafting and "nurturing" talent--its not a secret.

by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 10:25 AM EST up reply actions  

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My comments were not in reply to yours.  They were in reply to the statement:  "Wedge is responsible for the professional development of his young players and he has failed almost every time with the exception being Sizemore."

by Jay on Jan 22, 2007 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

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WHICH 100 games i'd guess is the concern. in a platoon, he'll see fewer games per week, meaning he needs to be healthy for a greater number of weeks to be valuable.

by fleerdon on Jan 20, 2007 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

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so does this mean we'll see Nixon's Vixens?

by nctribefan on Jan 20, 2007 12:07 AM EST reply actions  

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Credit for saying it first.  Nice job.

by Jay on Jan 20, 2007 12:38 AM EST up reply actions  

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How about Hot to Trots?  That felt good.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Jan 20, 2007 2:26 AM EST up reply actions  

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More like Trot's Hotties.

by Jay on Jan 20, 2007 1:41 PM EST up reply actions  

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I think you guys are failing to recognize that we're going to have to platoon the groupies as well.  Unfortunately, I couldn't come up with an appropriate name for the hybrid Micucci girls...or the Blarko ones...and the Blixon's can still be the vixens.

by APV on Jan 20, 2007 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

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Oh yes, finally a group capable of hanging with Dellucci's Hoochies.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jan 20, 2007 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

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On the Guthrie front there is something that I don't understand. You say that Shapiro should be able to work a trade. If that is true, why wouldn't you work the trade before the DFA was necessary? Why wait until the clock is ticking to try to find a home for the guy? If he is tradeable why isn't he already gone? This stuff drives me crazy and it's not just in the Guthrie case. It happens over and over again and I promise I won't mention HIS name.

by exileincincy on Jan 20, 2007 8:00 AM EST reply actions  

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In both cases, apparently you're looking at a bag-of-balls trade.  In HIS case, the top bid among 29 teams was a C prospect in A ball.  Top bid being the key point here.  It represents his maximum tradeability, and the fact that someone has been DFA'ed ups the ante but doesn't radically change the trade value.  Everyone knew we had to get rid of Milton Bradley, but we still had a nice little bidding war for him.

by Jay on Jan 20, 2007 1:43 PM EST up reply actions  

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How do you know that the best offer was a C level A ball prospect? This DFA just makes the FO look bad for signing a guy as a high draft pick and failing to even get any trade value for him a few years later.
Swing and a big miss

by 5tribetipies on Jan 20, 2007 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

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You're right, we probably didn't take the best offer on the table. I bet someone offered us a #1 starter. How do we know that was the best offer? Because that is the one we took. Do you honestly think we would have taken a worse offer just for fun?
Wait 'til next year... or something like that

by Brad D on Jan 20, 2007 1:49 PM EST up reply actions  

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no offense but guthrie seems to have little value--

by rustyparts on Jan 21, 2007 7:48 AM EST up reply actions  

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"And although he has speed, hasn't been much of a base-stealer in the minors."

This is a minor point (no pun intended), but he did swipe 40 in AA, then 20 and 26 in two AAA seasons. Not huge totals by any means, but good for a guy with a little power. One could surmise that as/if he gets adjusted in the majors, he would be good for about 20 SB--which only becomes impressive for an outfielder if he develops 20-25 HR power, which is doubtful. Also, his K/BB rates in the minors never even got to the 2/1 level, suggesting that his 46/18 rate in his first major-league stint might be the sign of growing pains rather than contact problems.

by DocNo on Jan 20, 2007 8:11 AM EST reply actions  

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Not a minor point, DocNo.  In fact, it helps us get some perspective here.  'Member back in the mid-90s when the Red Sox had essentially given up on Trot Nixon because he had stalled out in AA and AAA and had not shown enough power (though he always had good plate discipline).  Then in 1998, at age 24, he blossomed at Pawtucket:  .400 OBA and .513 slugging.  The next year he was a regular with the BoSox.

Let's not forget that in 2005, Choo, at age 23, put together some stats very similar to Nixon's '98 stats with the PawSox:  .408 OBA and .545 slugging.  (The comparison breaks down with the K/BB ratios, however.)

Bottom line:  I'm not going to knock this trade because the Blixon platoon in right seems okay to me.  But I do wonder why the Tribe is so intent on blocking young players at the very moment they need to be letting them show what they can do.  Okay, I'll say it:  Brian Giles.

ken from alexandria

by ken from alexandria on Jan 20, 2007 8:40 AM EST up reply actions  

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I too am neither down on the signing nor completely sold on Choo. But if they are blocking him, the reason must be this: the FO believes they can win now. Nixon and Delucci are proven OBP guys and not as prone to the fluctuations of a first- or second- year starters, and the Indians will be starting 3 of them already (Peralta, Marte, Barfield). Choo as a 4th might arouse the fear of prolonged offensive slumps. I cannot think of any other reason (barring trade). Let's hope it works out.

by DocNo on Jan 20, 2007 9:20 AM EST up reply actions  

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DocNo has a good point about the higher OBP of Nixon and Delucci vs the young infielders. I believe that Michaels does not generate a high enough OBP either, which is why the Tribe is gathering more outfielders and potential #2 hitters.

Where my math is different than DocNo's is the number of years as starters. By my count Peralta will be a 3-yr starter, Barfield a 2-yr, and Marte a 1-year (still all very light in experience).

by kov on Jan 20, 2007 10:50 AM EST up reply actions  

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yes- of course Peralta is 3rd year, but we witnessed his fluctuation between 2005 & 2006, and as for this year, well, the jury is out.
Barfield is more solid v. LHP, and OBP drops significantly v. RHP.

by DocNo on Jan 20, 2007 12:24 PM EST up reply actions  

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Michaels OBP was miserable last year for a guy that was supposed to be our 2-hole hitter.  But when used properly (i.e. ONLY against LHP), his numbers are quite good:  .387 career, .349 last year.

by emil minty on Jan 20, 2007 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

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yeah Micheals had 305 ABs against righties and 189 against lefties, so his overall numbers cover up the one thing we knew about him before the Indians traded for him and made him into a regular LF, that he hits lefties for an very good OBP and pretty good overall OPS.

by hans on Jan 20, 2007 6:28 PM EST up reply actions  

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Giles is not an example of someone being blocked.  In Giles' two full seasons with the Indians, he had almost 881 plate appearances.  He started 60% of the games and appeared in almost 80%.  That is not blocking, it's the lion's share of an everyday job.

by Jay on Jan 20, 2007 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

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You're right, of course, about 1997 and 1998.  But Giles was blocked for three years before that.  He played three frickin' years in AAA, good for 1,165 ABs, a period over which he had an OBP + SLG of better than .900.  Now, you can say, yes, but look at the players who were blocking him (Manny Ramirez, for one).  And you can say yes, but Choo is not a top prospect.  But the Indians didn't think Giles was a top prospect either, when they were making him repeat AAA over and over, and also when they traded him for Ricky Ricardo Rincon.  That's my point.
ken from alexandria

by ken from alexandria on Jan 20, 2007 4:54 PM EST up reply actions  

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He did play 2.5 years in Triple A, but you're misrepresenting the numbers.  His first season, he had an 869 OPS -- solid, but not great.  His next season, he had a 896 OPS -- a little better, but mostly more of the same.

These are not the kind of performances that force a team's hand -- unlike, say, Kouzmanoff in 2006.  The following year, he had a 989 OPS, he was promoted July 12 and never looked back.  Slowed a little, yes.  But "blocked" implies that he unequivocally was ready for the majors.  I don't see that in the numbers.

by Jay on Jan 20, 2007 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

PLEASE CONTACT ME
Hello.  I run www.bigdawgbaseball.com.  Would the webmaster for Let's Go Tribe contact me about how we might be able to work together?

I would appreciate it.

Chris McDonnell
chris@bigdawgbaseball.com
Big Dawg Baseball

Chris McDonnell Big Dawg Baseball

by Chris McDonnell on Jan 20, 2007 8:35 AM EST reply actions  

Re: PLEASE CONTACT ME
Chris,

I'm very easy to get a hold of. Just click on my name and e-mail me.

by Ryan on Jan 20, 2007 10:26 AM EST up reply actions  

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everyone,

this Trot signing seems so out of character for the Indians since they usually watch every $1M so tight.  It seems like an Aaron Boone category deal but Trot does seem to play hard all the time.
Diving into walls will shorten a career.

Combined with the other pitcher signings, it seems the club is looking at this year and maybe next year as the contention window before we lose some big money free agents like Haf, Westbrook, and CC.

Hopefully the club contends at a high level, goes deep into the post season and we get big upside money from STO/attendence/etc to sign one or two of those guys.

Does anyone think the Tribe can gen the cash needed to keep these guys or will the Dolan's just not pay the kind of money needed to any one player?

Thoughts?

by Dallas Tribe on Jan 20, 2007 12:10 PM EST reply actions  

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No matter how much cash that Dolan gets from STO or etc, he will still have to outbid teams with deeper pockets. I will never stop beating that "dead horse" of MLB refusing to revenue share. After following Indians baseball for 50 years and seeing the contrast to the pro football business model, this is the one area that continues to irk me.

by elsandito on Jan 20, 2007 4:48 PM EST up reply actions  

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first, cleveland is not a small market team--second, baseball should have a salary cap, not revunue sharing

by rustyparts on Jan 21, 2007 7:57 AM EST up reply actions  

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As you and the good ship Pessimism keep plugging along I thought I wouldn't mention something. Last time I checked, 2005, the Indians were in the 16th largest market in the big. Given the disparity between Cleveland and cities like LA and NY it is fair to call us "small market."
Wait 'til next year... or something like that

by Brad D on Jan 21, 2007 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

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ok, so given the MLB business model, our 16th market position, out bidding LA and NY is not going to happen for all three CC, Westbrook, and Haf.  

It seems Haf is our only big bopper so it would be good to keep him somehow.

Too be honest CC's comments didn't seem to encouraging about staying "....big decisions to make.." or something like that.  We've heard this before.

I don't think Shapiro has a choice but to trade CC or Westbrook if he does not think he has a chance to sign one or both of them.  

by Dallas Tribe on Jan 21, 2007 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

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I hope you don't see this next point as counterpoint, but, let's say the Tribe did have the second largest budget in the majors and it was $80M. But the largest budgeted team had $200M to spend. The rank of second would be irrelevant. It's not where you rank, it's how much money you have to spend. We can agree that there are a number of teams that have more to spend and because of that, teams like KC, Milwaukee and Cleveland see the star athletes that have developed into stars on our teams, bolt for larger contracts elsewhere. It wouldn't bother me if this weren't so consistent a pattern. If that makes me a pessimist, ok.

by elsandito on Jan 21, 2007 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

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Yes, but the three biggest cities have a total of six teams, all six of which have a higher revenue base than the Indians.

by Jay on Jan 21, 2007 7:48 PM EST up reply actions  

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If we consider this team a contender, then you have to put a limit on the number of unproven players you run out there every day. In my opinion, every infielder is unproven one way or another (assuming Garko plays), and I do not expect all of them to have great years. Therefore, going with veterans instead of high-risk, potentially high-cieling players like choo in the outfield adds more uncertainty.

I like the move because at the very least, we know what won't get (high strikeouts) and worst case scenario becomes playing prospects who already have some major league experience.

by buckwild460 on Jan 20, 2007 12:41 PM EST reply actions  

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And in fairness, not to defend the move, but Choo is not really considered a high-ceiling guy, and if he were, this move wouldn't have gotten made.

by Jay on Jan 20, 2007 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

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Not sure what do you mean by High-ceiling guy? Choo minor league stats do not look that bad, I would think he has a good chance to be at least a average player with the bat and above average with the glove and arm.    
Fan in Texas

by fanintexas on Jan 20, 2007 10:02 PM EST up reply actions  

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If I may butt in...I think you answered your own question.  A high-ceiling player needs to be better than average with the bat.  I think if Choo goes back to Buffalo, learns to hit lefties, develops more power, and/or becomes a premier basestealer, he could raise the roof somewhat.

Here's one guy who thinks Choo is Grade A and will develop into a power hitter:

http://detectovision.com/?p=622

...at least he felt that way while Choo was still a Mariner.  Not sure if I totally agree with him...I'd like to see the ability to hit lefties and the power before I'd rank him too high.  So far, he's got a platooner/4th OF future, imo.

by Chiefroy on Jan 21, 2007 3:27 AM EST up reply actions  

The Legend of Choo
"...In 2005, Cindy and I went to a game in which Choo hit a pitched baseball over the Cheney CF fence ... Now, granted, it was blowing out pretty good that day, but the Cheney CF fence is 85 feet high and 600 feet away from home plate."

lol

by homelytourist on Jan 21, 2007 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

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After dissecting as much as we possibly can:

*They probably had more cash to work with then anticipated after the offseason shopping was done (and Mulder chose St. Louis)
*PECOTA, ZIPS, and Bill James basically have them both washing out in terms of OPS, but I think they're all under-reporting Nixon's SLG PCT because of Fenway's deep right field
*To what Ryan said, I too would agree that Nixon is ever so slightly better than Choo defensively
*Maybe they are more alarmed about Choo striking out in one third of at bats then we think
*Nixon was quoted as saying he always loved hitting at the Jake, although I don't know his numbers there
*Obviously there was some concern over the number of 1st/2nd/3rd-year players in the field (warranted or not)
*Maybe this forecasts a deal, maybe not

And all of this is moot if Nixon can't stay healthy.  

by cheech99 on Jan 20, 2007 1:14 PM EST reply actions  

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Nixon was quoted as saying he always loved hitting at the Jake, although I don't know his numbers there

.242/.315/.535 in 99 AB.

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 20, 2007 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

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I assume you're being sarcastic, but what if the low batting average is just a fluke, as it probably is?  Based on his walk and power numbers at the Jake, if he "normalizes" his batting average he's going to have over a 900 OPS.

by Jay on Jan 20, 2007 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

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If Nixon "normalizes" other stats, the Tribe may have made a great deal. For instance his career OPS against the White Sox is .536, a number even Mendoza would surpass. Against the Twins and the Royals, Nixon's a solid mediocrity. It's only against the Tigers that Trot reaches Ruthian levels: 1.131 career OPS. Assuming a movement towards the mean, Nixon should schedule his injuries accordingly. There's no reason for him to show up against Detroit. As far as his numbers at Jacobs Field, they were obviously recorded against Indian pitchers, whom he will no longer face.

by Rochester on Jan 20, 2007 5:11 PM EST up reply actions  

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(also, I find Yahoo the quickest/easiest way to get splits.  If you use Firefox, you can get to a player's card in two clicks through the search box)

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 20, 2007 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

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That seems like a good summary, although you may be underestimating the amount of dissecting yet to come.

By the way, a minor point, for PECOTA at least, you can look at their "equivalents" which should take the Fenway dip out of Nixon's numbers.  Or look at EQA, where Choo is projected at .285, and Nixon at .273.  

I'm interested to hear why people are projecting Nixon's defense to be better.

by dgcambridge on Jan 20, 2007 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

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For all the Gonnie Garko lovers out there:
http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/sports/baseball/mlb/cleveland_indians/16506070.htm
Pluto (the hack i trust more than the other, bigger hacks) at least assumes that with the new RF configuration, Garko will be the other half of the 1B platoon (as opposed to the 'Victor gets regular starts at 1B' fantasy).

Makes sense to me.  Signing Trotts seems to increase Garko's chance of making the roster.  More important to have a RH bat on the bench (whereas Choo wasn't considered to be THAT much of a liability against LHP).

by emil minty on Jan 20, 2007 2:33 PM EST reply actions  

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I don't really think the Trot-for-Choo swap affects Garko's chances much.  I believe the amount of playing time they decide to give to Shoppach is more important, as they will surely not leave Victor on the bench for too many games.

Perhaps more important is the backup IF position.
If they give the job to Luna, his ability to play third should assure Garko a spot.  I don't think we'll depend on Blake or Inglett to backup Marte.  If we have to grab another backup SS, HIS versatilty would determine who we needed to keep  between Luna, Inglett, or Garko.

I'm hoping Jhonny, Hector, and Victor ALL show improved defensive play in the spring, allowing us to keep Garko's bat available on the big league bench.  

by Chiefroy on Jan 20, 2007 5:29 PM EST up reply actions  

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solid point.  i'm for bringing back bill selby.  

by emil minty on Jan 20, 2007 5:56 PM EST up reply actions  

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STO recently showed the Yankees' game when Selby hit a walk-off salami off of Mo Rivera.

For that, and that moment alone, Selby will forever be remembered fondly.

by The DiaTriber on Jan 20, 2007 6:05 PM EST up reply actions  

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and for his male-porn facial hair.

by emil minty on Jan 20, 2007 6:31 PM EST up reply actions  

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I attended that game with my boys when Bill Selby had the big blast.  The Indians came from way behind and the game seemed out of reach - everyman's Selby gave us all a great memory - really a miracle finish - and huge cheer against the dreaded Yankees.

I think he hit .220 after that.

by Dallas Tribe on Jan 20, 2007 8:07 PM EST up reply actions  

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Hitting 2nd base HARD on his run to the outfield...somewhere.

by The DiaTriber on Jan 20, 2007 8:45 PM EST up reply actions  

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defense is apparently an after thought for this team, chief--its gonna bite em in the ass down the road if they actually become contenders this year, which i have some serious doubts about.  i hope, like we all do, that things will work out for this one year--but i see so many flaws in the lineup and the bullpen that it may take divine intervention to be within 20 games of the tigers, twins, and white sox at the end of the year.

by rustyparts on Jan 21, 2007 8:15 AM EST up reply actions  

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The only way you can make a statement like that is by being completely oblivious to what other teams' bullpens and lineups actually look like.  Our outfield looks like the '95 Indians compared to the White Sox.

by Jay on Jan 21, 2007 9:35 AM EST up reply actions  

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not trying to be pessimistic, just have the run of the mill questions we all have at this time of year--pretty natural behavior.  i'm a "homer" too, just not all that myopic.  its all moot, anyway, until the first ball is pitched and we see what we have assembled for the fans, who, after all, pay for the product on the field. the tribe has done a wonderful job.  if i gave the wrong impression to any of you, you have not read closely enough.

by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 12:14 PM EST up reply actions  

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it may take divine intervention to be within 20 games of the tigers, twins, and white sox at the end of the year.

To say this, while more than one national expert consider the Indians the favorites, is just rampant pessimism.  To hem and haw about "flaws in the lineup," which is the runaway favorite to be the best in the division, is more of a neurotic tic than an opinion.  Maybe you're the one who needs to read your own posts more closely.

by Jay on Jan 22, 2007 12:24 PM EST up reply actions  

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You're just a basketful of sunshine.  Sure that's the downside, but have you looked at our competitition in the central?  They ALL have issues.  Unless we had $200 million to spend on salaries, we have to employ people who have some weaknesses.  Thome's back could give out. Minnesota's rotation could collapse.  Verlander and Kenny Rogers could come up lame.  Everyone has variables, and a lot more where that came from.  Maybe one of the teams runs away with it. But we have as good a chance at being one of those as they do.  

by Bogalusa Bomber on Jan 21, 2007 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

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The defense is going to be a little better in the infield but most likely worse overall.  The bullpen is more or less a crap shot.  The starting pitching is solid but will we see maybe Westbrook regresses and Cliff Lee continues to struggle to get out of the 5th inning.  The lineup should be solid but maybe they will be inconsistent like last year.  With all the platoon players we have, that could hurt our consistency.  Wedge does not seem to get the best out of his players and does not handle the bullpen well at all.  This team has the potential to win 85-90 games but that clearly will not be enough to win the division and would be lucky to win the wild card spot.
Swing and a big miss

by 5tribetipies on Jan 21, 2007 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

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You should write the Indians ad campaigns:

We're your 2007 Indians! We'd be lucky to win the wild card

Tribe baseball: most likely worse overall!

Come out to the Jake, it's more or less a crap shoot!

Or course, they thing is, you're probably right.  By which I mean, the chance that the Indians win the division is less than 50%.  No one in this division is a more than 50% favorite.  When BP put up there playoff odds at the start of 2006, only one team (the A's) was given better than 50% to win their division.  Moreso, only three teams had over a 50% chance of making the playoffs in any way, with the A's topping out at 62%.  This just in:  the Suns probably won't win the NBA title, and the Patriots probably won't win the Super Bowl.

My point is, feel free to keep saying that the Tribe won't win it all, and won't win the division, and won't win the wild card.  You're more likely than not to be patting yourself on the back next year, and gloating on this board.  But we don't care.

by dgcambridge on Jan 21, 2007 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

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From The Naked Gun:
Ed: Doctors say that Nordberg has a 50 - 50 chance of living, though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

If we have a 50% chance of winning the division, with 3 other serious competitors, that means we are the favorite.  I'll take that.

How about some more good PR quotes:

Swiss cheese has nothing on our defense.

Tribe Baseball: Sure the team is terrible, but at least the food is bad

Don't Expect Heaven in '07

by Bogalusa Bomber on Jan 22, 2007 12:07 AM EST up reply actions  

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BTW, I'm joking about the PR quotes.  I'm one of those myopic homers.  Also couldn't get the cool blue box to work for the Nordberg quote.  Blew that one.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Jan 22, 2007 8:06 AM EST up reply actions  

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overall I see the transactions as giving us much more run scoring with OBP and some added power, less batting order dead spots, a solid rotation, and high probability/hope in the bullpen.

If Peralta has his shoes weighted in concrete again, you're right about ass bite.  I saw him play in TX and he just didn't look like a ss.

We need a ss and a closer to emerge to win in the post season.

If it looks like we can't sign Westbrook or CC, what about trading one of them for a top ss and bring up one of our AAA pitchers?  Or is it too late for a trade?

by Dallas Tribe on Jan 21, 2007 2:55 PM EST up reply actions  

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I'm sorry, but this lineup is going to strike fear in every RHP. They are setting themselves up to kick the shit out of the right-handed-pitcher dominated AL Central.
And how many prominent LHP's are there in the Central? Santana. Buehrle. Rogers. Maroth. Finished.
If the pitching (and bullpen) holds together reasonably well, the defense should be better, and the offense should be on a rampage.
Nay-say as you will, but this team is to be reckoned with.

by DocNo on Jan 21, 2007 7:09 PM EST up reply actions  

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This is a good point that may be flying under the radar, but with the way team schedules are weighted toward more intradivisional games, and the derth of quality LH pitching beyond the four guys you named in the division, coupled with this lineup that should destroy RH pitching, its definetly an advantage for the Tribe.

As is, we have a fairly balanced rotation ourselves (two righties, three lefties) so I'm not sure we'd be effected the same way as the rest of the rotations in the division which all have more righties than lefties.

by hans on Jan 21, 2007 11:48 PM EST up reply actions  

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That is interesting.  A year ago, we were talking about how important it was to deal with all the lefties in the AL Central.  Now, outside of Santana and the Indians, there really isn't much to fear.  FYI, PECOTA thinks that Rogers, Maroth and Buehrle aren't likely to be much above average, if at all.  And Johnson, Zito and Lilly, three of the better starters in the AL, have all gone to the NL in the offseason, with only Pettitte coming back the other way.

by Jay on Jan 21, 2007 11:59 PM EST up reply actions  

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Unfortunate that the Chi Sox and Tigers have so much of their power contribution from RH hitters.  Konerko, Dye, the entire Chicago infield;  Guillen, Maggs, Pudge, Thames, Monroe, Shef, Inge, (will Shelton be back for another terrifying April of collision hitting?).  

by emil minty on Jan 22, 2007 12:43 AM EST up reply actions  

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I have to be honest, I think you'd be happier on another forum.  There are people here who are more obnoxious than you, but nobody posts comments with zero basis in reality more than you do, and always to the negative.  You don't seem interested in or capable of any real discussion about these subjects.  Have you tried cleveland.com forums?  Seems about your speed.

by Jay on Jan 21, 2007 7:53 PM EST up reply actions  

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Jay said:

"There are people here who are more obnoxious than you, but nobody posts comments with zero basis in reality more than you do ..."

Jay, please be more explicit and tell us you REALLY feel ?

by SpringTrainingFun on Jan 24, 2007 5:49 PM EST up reply actions  

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Give me a break, I said he wasn't the most obnoxious person here.  That's me, always looking for something nice to say.

by Jay on Jan 25, 2007 1:41 AM EST up reply actions  

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The defense is going to be a little better in the infield but most likely worse overall.

I don't see how that's possible. Nixon, if he's healthy, is one of the better right fielders around. The only obvious "downgrade" is Michaels to Dellucci, and that's not going overshadow the infield gains.

This team has the potential to win 85-90 games but that clearly will not be enough to win the division and would be lucky to win the wild card spot.

Why not? There's four pretty good teams in the AL Central, and thanks to the unbalanced schedule, it'll be very difficult for two teams to both win more than 90 games.

by Ryan on Jan 21, 2007 10:55 PM EST up reply actions  

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I'd like to echo Jay.  This site is the thinking man's refuge from the Brinda/Roda/Cleveland world.  Please don't lower the bar and make this site less than it is.  Like Rome's Rule you should have a take and not s_ck.  Please come back when you can express a defensible thought and have lost that whiney negativity emblematic of the above-referenced mediums.

by stuart dean on Jan 22, 2007 7:46 AM EST up reply actions  

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This is nothing more than the usual head-in-the-sand, Cleveland sucks, pessimism that kills this city and drives most of us crazy.

You see holes in a lineup that scored the second most runs in the league last year and got better over the offseason? You see holes in a bullpen that, even if Brandini thinks the money could have gone elsewhere, without argument got better in the offseason as well?

Divine intervention to be close? Use your head a little bit. We got better, Detroit played over their heads last year and the White Sox and Twins are arguably worse than we are, not better. So, are you pessimistic? Yes. I am not even a homer and I can see that.

Wait 'til next year... or something like that

by Brad D on Jan 22, 2007 12:32 PM EST up reply actions  

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<<not sold on garko even one little bit--playing victor at first against lefties and letting shoppach catch cant possibly hurt us defensively--not that its ideal-- i repeat my own personal mantra--fielding will cost this team dearly over the course of the year.

by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 10:53 AM EST up reply actions  

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The problem is that the Indians have gone a long way towards making your personal mantra superfluous.  Last time: if you don't think that the Indians defense is now significantly better than it was last year you are living on a plane of existence that is beyond reailty.  
Railing against the sacrifice bunt since 2000.

by jdudas on Jan 22, 2007 12:03 PM EST up reply actions  

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just my belief judas--i could be wrong and hope you are right--hate to keep harping on fielding winning games--so i will drop the subject, forever.

by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

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Mantra ... I do not think it means what you think it means.  I am picturing you sitting cross-legged on the floor, chanting over and over again ... "fielding will cost this team dearly over the course of the year" ... I'm no expert, but you are never going to levitate with a mantra like that.

by Jay on Jan 22, 2007 12:11 PM EST up reply actions  

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i said i would drop it

by rustyparts on Jan 22, 2007 12:35 PM EST up reply actions  

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Not with your negative energy weighing him down.
Wait 'til next year... or something like that

by Brad D on Jan 22, 2007 12:35 PM EST up reply actions  

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Ha!
Railing against the sacrifice bunt since 2000.

by jdudas on Jan 22, 2007 2:46 PM EST up reply actions  

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Maybe we should get the other Nixon back for our OF...Otis. I'll bet he can still out run Trot (and would cost less than $3M)..

by kov on Jan 20, 2007 11:12 PM EST reply actions  

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Hey, if Tony Graffanino can get $3.5 million, maybe Trot's a bargain...

by CaptainEasy on Jan 20, 2007 11:37 PM EST up reply actions  

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Maybe this was mentioned on the other thread, but... with the additions of Nixon and Foulke, Shapiro has brought two players (and contributors) from the Red Sox last World Series team.  

Each of them has something to prove after their departures from Boston.  And, they are young enough to have something left in the tank to do it.

by Spidey on Jan 21, 2007 11:27 AM EST reply actions  

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I agree, we replaced young and a little goofy inexperienced/inconsistent players with true pros; they'll help the players (and maybe Wedge) tremendously with leadership, if they are healthy.

by Dallas Tribe on Jan 21, 2007 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

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Well, between two separate posts, we reached almost 500 posts on the addition of Trot "Veteran Presence" Nixon. And most of them actually stayed on topic. I can only imagine what the number of posts will be the day we trade CC (hopefully not til next year I hope if at all).

But I digress ......

Do I like the move? I'm not thrilled with it but I think it will work out for the best barring injuries (which you can say about most deals btw). I liked Choo, but I also see why the FO was reluctant to count on him as a platoon player with the holes in his swing he showed late last year.

The thing that has really hurt this tema the last two years has been the god-awful slow starts (even with the 6-1 start last year too). I think with Choo in the lineup, we would have had more of a chance to start out slow because of all tht young players in the lineup (Marte, Barfield, Peralta, and Choo/Garko). That is a lot of young bats that could go cold collectively very easily.

Now our lineups look like this:

vs. LHP
Sizemore CF L
Michaels LF R
Hafner DH L
Martinez 1B S
Blake RF R
Peralta SS R
Shoppach C R
Marte 3B R
Barfield 2B R

vs. RHP
Sizemore CF L
Dellucci LF L
Hafner DH L
Martinez C S
Nixon RF L
Blake 1B R
Peralta SS R
Marte 3B R
Barfield 2B R

Against RHP, we only have 3 young bats. And if Jhonny is closer 2005 and Barfield is similar to 2006, Marte is really our only weak link.

by talonk on Jan 22, 2007 2:14 AM EST reply actions  

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Yeah, wait til Shapiro does the move-that-hurts.  Ryan and Jay will need more server space.

Or as Bruce Springsteen once said of Kid Leo at an Agora Concert "[Kid Leo]'s praying for more watts.  He needs to blow this thing all the way back to New Jersey."  I'm getting old.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Jan 22, 2007 2:34 AM EST up reply actions  

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Kid Leo references should get super duper fantastic bonus points on this blog.
The Unofficial Andy Marte, Joe Borowski and Mark Shapiro apologist.

by woodsmeister on Jan 22, 2007 8:48 AM EST up reply actions  

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Since I live overseas and don't get back too often, my memories of Cleveland are in suspended animation.  I'm not distracted by recent events.  Sometimes I'm walking down the street and the names Steve Hargan and Sonny Siebert will pop into my head for no apparent reason. Akron Armory, Johnny Powers, The Ghoul, Houlihan and Big Chuck, SuperHost, World Series of Rock, 10 cent beer night, The King Biscuit Flower Hour, Quiana shirts...try wearing a necktie with a quiana shirt, I dare you.  Growing up in the 70s is kind of a curse. The memories are like plucking fruit off of a petrified tree.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Jan 22, 2007 9:13 AM EST up reply actions  

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Daffy Dan's?

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 22, 2007 9:57 AM EST up reply actions  

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Kid Leo has a show on Little Steven's Underground Garage on Sirius.  Great stuff.

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 22, 2007 9:57 AM EST up reply actions  

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my curiosity led me to ask Wikipedia who the devil Kid Leo might be, and the resulting history lesson has made it a little clearer to me why my dad speaks so highly of what -- to my young ears at least -- has always seemed like a run-of-the-mill "modern rock" radio station.

another moment of enlightenment brought to you by Let's Go Tribe.

by nctribefan on Jan 23, 2007 3:08 AM EST up reply actions  

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I believe your lineups are there with the following tweaks
Trot will hit #2 and dellucci will go right before or after Blake.  Trot is expected to be the OBP and Dellucci is expected to have a higher SLG.
I would not be surprised if Marte hits 9 agains t LHP and RHP.

by stuart dean on Jan 22, 2007 9:08 AM EST up reply actions  

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Agreed.  The chance to bat between Sizemore and Hafner while facing only righties had to look good to a free agent like Nixon.  If Dellucci didn't have a multi-year deal, Wedge could've probably put the spot up for bid and got a kickback.

by Chiefroy on Jan 22, 2007 10:03 AM EST up reply actions  

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My mani point was to show how the lineups have less young guys, not necessarily where they bat.

But I am fine with Nixon hitting second and Delluci/Blake protecting Vic.

The reason I put Barfield 9 instead of Marte, is I believe they actually want guys on base in front of Grady. Besides, hitting Barfield 9 is a nice easy way to protect against a sophomore slump. If he slumps, so what, he's hitting 9. I don't know, I'd rather see Barfield 9.

by talonk on Jan 22, 2007 11:32 AM EST up reply actions  

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I would think we would want Barfield batting 9th, he would have a better chance to score from 1st on one of Sizemore's extra base hits.  
Fan in Texas

by fanintexas on Jan 22, 2007 12:49 PM EST up reply actions  

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Yeah, I think Barfield likely ends up at #9 unless he's moved to #2 at some point.  My guess is that we'll see Nixon and Michaels "platooning" in the 2-hole, as Michaels despite the off-year still has a .387 career OBP vs LHP.

vs RHP:  Sizemore, Nixon, Hafner, Martinez, Dellucci, Blake, Peralta, Marte, Barfield

vs LHP:  Sizemore, Michaels, Hafner, Martinez, Blake, Garko, Peralta, Marte, Barfield

The lineup is scarier vs. RHP but also more top-heavy.  The lineup is more balanced vs. LHP, who are not going to like having to face Hafner and then six righties, every one of them a legit power threat.

by Jay on Jan 22, 2007 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

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These lineups ARE scary. This team will be an offensive force this season.

I'm having trouble waiting for opening day. Perhaps it is because of the way last season turned out, but this offseason seems unusually long.

by Jeffrey R on Jan 22, 2007 4:28 PM EST up reply actions  

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I know the benfits of Hafner batting 3rd (more AB), but I would prefer to see Martinez batting 3rd and Hafner 4th. I think it would be a more balanced RH/LH lineup.
Fan in Texas

by fanintexas on Jan 23, 2007 12:45 AM EST up reply actions  

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Hafner had virtually the same slg/OPS against both lefties and righties in '06, and is our best hitter vs either.  I want Travis to be assured of a 1st inning AB, when many pitchers have not yet settled in.  Batting 4th behind Victor's GIDPs would leave him leading off innings too often, imo.  

RH/LH lineup balance may look better, but results are what matter.  

One adjustment COULD be made perhaps....if our leadoff hitter continues to hit .214/.290/.427 vs lefties and Barfield continues to hit them at an
.331/.378/.587 clip.  If that trend continues after a couple of months, I'd have to consider dropping Grady to sixth when a lefty starts, and moving Barfield to leadoff(provided he's not needed in the #2 spot).
Grady is almost certain to be moved to the middle when Crowe or another leadoff-type emerges, so a phase-in early next year could be an advantage.

I DO expect some improvement from Grady vs the lefties, perhaps enough that no such move would be considered.  And it's certainly premature and maybe a little too optimistic, to assume Barfield will put up those same type numbers in a new league....of course, he WAS in a new league last year....

by Chiefroy on Jan 23, 2007 2:13 AM EST up reply actions  

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dropping Grady against lefties seems like a great idea... if Barfield proves capable of filling the spot.

there seems to be a perception that Major Leaguers don't like to be shifted around from day to day, but i don't see why it should bother them.  Sizemore seems like the sort who wouldn't be too worried about it.

by nctribefan on Jan 23, 2007 3:34 AM EST up reply actions  

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regarding RH/LH balance: someone proposed on here sometime last season that the traditional practice of alternating righties and lefties in the lineup should be abandoned entirely.  i don't remember how that discussion turned out, but the proposal made sense to me.  it seems reasonable to bunch your production against the guy who's pitching the first six innings instead of worrying about the guys pitching the last three, especially for a team like the Tribe who need to score a lot of runs off of doubles and singles rather than HR.

i also wonder if the prevalence of platoons in this year's lineup makes bunching RHs or LHs an even better idea, since we'll have a whole bench full of high-percentage guys ready to pinch hit in such late-inning situations.

by nctribefan on Jan 23, 2007 3:35 AM EST up reply actions  

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I'm on the nerd tip of batting your hitters in descending order of ability. Hafner would lead off for us, then Grady, then probably Vic, etc.

More ABs is more important over a season than getting the batting order the "correct" way through the first time you bat in every game.

by afh4 on Jan 23, 2007 10:51 AM EST up reply actions  

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talonk,

I think we might see Trotman batting second behind Grady, instead of Dellucci.

Looking at their 3-year splits vs righties:

Nixon  .297/.378/.471/.849  100/BB 98/K
Dellucci .264/.366/.509/.875  140/BB 242/K

Not a huge difference, but I'd go with the guy less likely to strikeout batting #2, and the guy with more power at #5.  Most likely, the spot will be decided in spring training, when we see what these guys have left in the tank.  

While Choo may have been fine over the course of the season batting in the 6th spot, as a #2 hitter he'd be a risk at this point in his career.  An injury or slump by Dellucci would've probably meant Michaels back at #2 vs righties, or else we'd have had to move up Choo.  Signing Nixon allows us to have two capable lefties to bat second in case of injury/slump.  By batting Nixon in the #2 hole, I think we may upgrade over Dellucci there, while upgrading over Choo with Dellucci lower down.

by Chiefroy on Jan 22, 2007 9:48 AM EST up reply actions  

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I think Wedge said something similar the other day, and Trot may in fact be the early tip for the 2 hole, against righties.

by MTF on Jan 22, 2007 11:12 AM EST up reply actions  

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I'm sure I've raised this before:
It seems to be generally accepted in the local press and on this board that Vic will get regular starts at 1B vs. LHP.  Have we seen any evidence that this will actually be the case?  Wasn't that supposed to happen last year too?  I just don't see it happenning.

by emil minty on Jan 22, 2007 11:18 AM EST up reply actions  

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OK, it may not be a full-time split with Vic at 1B. But I could see it happening at least at the beginning of the season until they decide if Garko will stick. This is the most likely scenario to get Shoppach's D in while resting Vic but keeping his bat in the lineup.

by talonk on Jan 22, 2007 11:34 AM EST up reply actions  

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It isn't beyond reason that KShop will quickly develop into the kind of offensive threat that would allow us to leave Victor at 1B most of the time. KShop hasn't had all that many plate appearances in the bigs. Just consider how the Tribe's defensive profile would improve with his arm behind the plate. That situation has a lot of upside.

by elsandito on Jan 22, 2007 12:18 PM EST up reply actions  

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Barring an injury or a commitment to use Victor at 1B, it's hard to see Shoppach emerging as anything at all.  It's easier to see him forgetting how to be a good defensive catcher.

by Jay on Jan 22, 2007 12:25 PM EST up reply actions  

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Not sure I took this the right way...but are you saying that you don't think Shoppach can evolve into at least a league avg. offensive C?

by hans on Jan 22, 2007 10:49 PM EST up reply actions  

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Not while sitting on the bench.

by Jay on Jan 22, 2007 11:31 PM EST up reply actions  

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ok, yeah that makes sense.

by hans on Jan 25, 2007 12:43 AM EST up reply actions  

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The reason for the slow start last year was the "vets". Boone, Byrd's 8.03 ERA in Apr, Johnson, Belliard, Graves, Mota, Martinez in May, Michaels.

The young players that underpefrormed were Peralta and Cabrera.

Having "vets" on the team does not assure getting off to a good start.

by ronh on Jan 22, 2007 2:52 PM EST up reply actions  

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In all fairness to Boone, he got off to an increbible start. He may have been rotten the rest of the year but he played well out of the gate.
Wait 'til next year... or something like that

by Brad D on Jan 22, 2007 6:21 PM EST up reply actions  

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Having "vets" on the team does not assure getting off to a good start.

Actually, nothing can assure a team getting a good start besides playing good baseball. And both youngsters and veterans can play good baseball.

by Ryan on Jan 22, 2007 7:44 PM EST up reply actions  

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I would be concerned about the re-habbing bullpen shaking off the injuries early in the season.

If we can get a closer going early out of that group we should be ok.

by Dallas Tribe on Jan 22, 2007 8:02 PM EST up reply actions  

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i've seen a lot of comments about our rehabbing bullpen, but i'm not sure what that's about.  granted, they're all injury risks, but unless i'm missing something, two of the new guys pitched all season last year, and Foulke had his "rehab" moments in Boston last August, then pitched the rest of the season rather expertly.

i don't think any of those three guys will be a liability on the mound in April.  if their arms don't fall off, they'll be ready to pitch.

by nctribefan on Jan 23, 2007 3:02 AM EST up reply actions  

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good point, I feel better.

by Dallas Tribe on Jan 23, 2007 8:38 AM EST up reply actions  

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Best caveat of the young year...if their arms don't fall off.

by The DiaTriber on Jan 23, 2007 8:50 AM EST up reply actions  

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i thought i should at least acknowledge the possibility. :)

by nctribefan on Jan 23, 2007 11:24 PM EST up reply actions  

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That is true -- none of these guys are rehabbing.  The concerns are all based on their history, not their present condition.

by Jay on Jan 23, 2007 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

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Hopefully vs. lefties, we'll see more of Garko at 1B and Victor still behind the plate.

by DixonCayne on Jan 23, 2007 7:05 AM EST up reply actions  

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