Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis

by Ryan on Dec 4, 2007 8:49 PM EST in News Comment 66 comments

This is shaping up to be quite an offseason for trades. First, the Twins and Rays make a deal including, among others, Delmon Young, Jason Bartlett, and Matt Garza. Johan Santana is probably going to be traded soon. And now this blockbuster:

The Tigers acquired Florida Marlins slugger Miguel Cabrera and pitcher Dontrelle Willis for star prospects Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller, plus four other players.

Cabrera is one of the top five hitters in baseball, regardless of position, and he's only 24. Sure, he's a free agent in two seasons, but the Tigers aren't going to be outbid by many teams if he does test the market. And besides, Detroit as presently constituted isn't a team that's going to be good three or four years down the road. Most of the team's starting position players are over the age of thirty, and the manager's not going to be around for the long haul.

The Tigers essentially stripmined the farm to get Cabrera and Willis. Cameron Maybin is just about major-league ready at the age of 21. Andrew Miller could probably step into the rotation this spring. Maybin and Miller are very valuable commodities because they are young, talented, and controllable for the next six seasons. The Marlins may have the most miserly ownership in sports, but their player development decisions have been impeccable given the tough moves they've had to make. They weren't going to keep Cabrera, so they made as good a haul as I think possible. I would imagine this deal is another huge blow to the Marlins' public perception, but by now it's blows of diminishing returns given that there aren't that many Marlin fans left to tick off.

Dontrelle Willis is overrated by conventional wisdom, but he's thrown over 195 innings the past four seasons, and given how many runs the Tigers are going to score, should be an excellent 4th starter. I believe he's two years from free agency as well.

The Tigers are going to be a scary team this season.

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Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Their lineup just got substantially better, and their rotation is deeper. They were already right there, and they definitely improved on paper. I'm interested to see how age treats them this year, though, and their depth doesn't seem to scare anyone. And their bullpen is obviously weak. Nonetheless, this was a shot across the bow to the AL Central, particularly Mark Shapiro.

I'm interested to see what Mark's response is, if any. Anybody else interested in Dan Haren? What would you trade, if anything, for him? He'd provide good, cheap insurance if CC is too expensive, and if we can sign CC then we've got a rotation to match the Red Sox (still the only team I'm worried about).

He's only had one dominant year, though, so I'm concerned with overpaying. Is he worth Adam Miller? Gutz? The 3 Leftys? I don't know, but he's very intriguing, and he's under contract for 3 more years for $16M. Seems like Shapiro's kind of contract. Depends a lot on what one might expect out of Cliff Lee and Sowers going forward, and whether Gutz is going to learn to hit RHP.

by pdxtribefan on Dec 4, 2007 9:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

There is no way I can get behind the idea that the pitching got deeper.

by afh4 on Dec 4, 2007 9:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

In one start against us last year he struck out 8, gave up two earned, and issued 0 free passes. I don't think he's the Cy Young pitcher he was for one year, but I don't think last year was more indicative of his future, either. He's got decent stuff and can eat innings, is only 26, has playoff experience, and 4 of his 5 seasons have been good. I think that dismissing him is far riskier than assuming he'll be great. I would pencil him in as their 3/4 starter all year and he'll be better than Nate Robertson (who also stuck it to us a couple times, I'll admit).

by pdxtribefan on Dec 4, 2007 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Yeah, Andrew Miller and Willis are a wash at best (at best for DET), they also traded away a SP from their AAA team. Depth did not improve.

by hans on Dec 4, 2007 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

I'm not sure I believe that Willis v. Andrew Miller is a wash for 2008. I think this is definitely a grab for 2008-09 run at a championship while you have the rotation of :

Verlander
Rogers
Bonderman
Willis
Robertson

'pen options of:
CL - Jones
Setup - Rodney
Second half - Zumaya (well-rested for playoff run if he comes back healthy)

And the lineup is just sick:

Renteria
C Granderson
M Cabrera
Sheffield
Ordonez
I Rodriguez
C Guillen
Jacques Jones/ Thames
Polanco

I'm having a tough time even putting them in the right order ... pudge batting 6th? Carlos Guillen batting 7th? Wow.

That's a team that can compete with Indians, Red Sox, Yankees, Angels - the team they had prior to trade I don't think could have.

They may suck in 3 years, but they're going for the kill now.

by steincat on Dec 4, 2007 10:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

That said, I think Ordonez is not the second-best hitter in the AL next year, I think Sheffield is lucky to play 100 games, Pudge is still going to be overrated while earning a gold glove, and I think it's hilarious that news of Cabrera's excellent conditioning program came out the day before the winter meetings started... but the team is definitely scarier than they were this morning.

by steincat on Dec 4, 2007 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Lineup will probably be...

Granderson
Polanco
Sheffield
Cabrera
Ordonez
Guillen
Renteria
Rodriguez
Thames/Jones

by Tribe Alive on Dec 5, 2007 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

I hear what you're saying, but Miller didn't look ready last year any more than Willis. The only difference is that Willis has a track record of getting it done at the major league level and is still only 26. Miller could be way better this year, though, I'll admit it, in which case I'm totally wrong.

by pdxtribefan on Dec 4, 2007 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

I tend to think Miller, Willis is a wash but even if it's not, that's not what I'm talking about.

They lost depth at worst, and stood pat at best. Depth is not the same thing as evaluating Miller and Willis in a vacuum.

by afh4 on Dec 4, 2007 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

When you say depth, do you mean organizational depth for the future, or do you mean depth from a 2008-09 perspective of not having injury protection in OF and Starting Pitching?

by steincat on Dec 4, 2007 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Some people are talking about organizational depth. I was talking only about the depth of the 2008 starting 5, and I'll take the blame for not being specific.

by pdxtribefan on Dec 4, 2007 11:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

The Tigers' 5th starter last year was a combination of Miller, Maroth, Jarrijens, and Kenny Rogers. Eyeballing it, it looks like they put up collectively around an ERA of 5, good for an ERA+ of around 90.

Willis put up an ERA of 5.17 with an ERA+ of 83. In the freaking NL.

Were I the Tigers, I'd much rather bet on that foursome again than bet on Rogers and Willis. All the other ones are gone, and Miller clearly has the most upside and Jurrjens was probably the best of the entire group, including Willis, when you account for durability, league, and performance.

I understand you're betting on Willis to improve. That's not a crazy thing to believe. But I don't even think the rotation is deeper, let alone the staff.

To me, we've got a group of 5 or 6 pitchers (if you want to throw in a Ledezma or Durbin) that were all lousy last year. I'll take the Shapiro approach and say, hey let's maximize the number of guys and see what works.

Reducing the number of guys, both at the major and minor league levels, and betting on one who was among the worst last year, doesn't seem prudent to me.

by afh4 on Dec 5, 2007 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Jurrjens was already gone, so that wasn't what I was referring to, and Ledezma and Durbin aren't part of this deal either. The only "depth" at issue this year is Miller and the other two guys. You clearly think Willis will get shelled. I think it is more likely Willis improves dramatically than either of the other pitchers in the deal arrives as an established starter. We disagree, and I'll admit my opinion is based on little personal knowledge of Willis' troubles last year or Miller's potential. Hopefully, for the Tribe's sake, you're right.

by pdxtribefan on Dec 5, 2007 1:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Both. For the far future (i.e. past 2009) I don't think there's any doubt that they've lost depth. You don't trade 5 (or was it 6?) young players for 2 and somehow acquire depth.

As for 08-09, De la Cruz and Trahern both could've possibly helped this year, out of the pen or in the rotation. Willis is going to have to be freakin' incredible to make having two less pseudo-ML ready pitchers on a team with bullpen and rotation problems.

In 2009, I think you can say very confidently that at least one of those guys could've helped and pretty confidently that the combination of Miller + DLC/Trahern is more valuable than Willis, going off Willis' trends.

I was just talking pitching but OF is a decent point too, with the injury/cliff risk to Ordonez and the cliff risk to a fringey guy like Thames. I don't know the system that well but losing Maybin is obviously a huge loss to any farm.

Add to this the trading of the Dutchman (JJ) and I think the Tigers pitching has taken a big step backwards this offseason, especially when you look at a decline curve for Kenny Rogers.

None of this really represents my actual opinion, it's just trying to point out that I can't see anyway you say the Tigers added pitching depth in this deal or over the entire offseason. I don't understand how one can evaluate this situation and say that. Forgive me if I've forogotten a move they made.

My actual opinion is that Willis is going to get hammered.

by afh4 on Dec 5, 2007 12:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera Dontrelle Willis

let's blow up the team, trade CC, Lee, Westbrook, Victor, and Hafner. Hell we only won 96 games. What chance do we have next year.

Fan in Texas

by fanintexas on Dec 4, 2007 9:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera

There is a silver lining to this deal. His name is Dontrelle Willis.

by Joe on Dec 4, 2007 9:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera

It's amazing how a solid hour of meditating upon this deal really relaxed me. Sure Miggy will likely be a monster, but an offseason where they Tigers have lost Jurjens, Miller and Raybin really doesn't scare me beyond two years from now.

by supermarioelia on Dec 4, 2007 9:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and

Ryan, as usual, has it right. Detroit's ownership appears to be willing to shell out the big bucks, so there isn't any reason for me to suspect they can't continually reload like the Yankees.

by Roger Dorn on Dec 4, 2007 9:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and

That may be, but they effectively traded away all of their young pitching talent in the their system in the past two years. It has become increasingly difficult to acquire good starting pitching through FA. They are making a push for this year and the next, they're going to be in shambles after that.

by hans on Dec 4, 2007 9:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis

There's not much to say. This announcement feels like Joe Borowski blowing a 2 run lead ... in consecutive nights.

Yes, the Tigers have a scary lineup .. but their pitching staff still isn't A+ level. All of their starters are beatable and Zumaya isn't invincible.

by Toxicadam on Dec 4, 2007 9:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis

Zumaya is having major surgery isn't he?

by Roger Dorn on Dec 4, 2007 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis

Out until around midseason in 2008 with surgery already performed.

by steincat on Dec 4, 2007 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis

I forgot about that .. so who is going to close for Detroit? Didn't they let Jones walk?

by Toxicadam on Dec 4, 2007 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis

They resigned Jones this year, just for 2008.

by steincat on Dec 4, 2007 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

What is interesting to me is that this deal seems to have come out of nowhere. Maybe it's just me, but there didn't seem to be much press/speculation about the Tigers going after Cabrera AND Willis. Wonder what else is brewing under the radar.

by CaptainPenny on Dec 4, 2007 10:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

I'm sure if any of the MSM bothered to look up the tail of a non-Boston or NY team, they would have seen it coming. But no.

by nickjs21 on Dec 4, 2007 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Im glad I came here, reading about this really felt like a punch in the stomach. Your realism is slowly bringing me back to ground, but I still do feel a bit nervous about how much better this makes Detroit in the here and now. Seems like a marvelous deal for them.

God truly does hate cleveland sports.

by Gradysmanldy on Dec 4, 2007 10:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit

Boy did I pick a wrong 6 hours to be away from the computer. My phone hasn't stopped ringing. OK, now let me catch up.

My initial reaction to the trade was a very deadpan, "Wow. That's a big deal." I couldn't decide if this made Detroit more of a threat or not. On one hand, they've gained one of Baseball's Greatest Hitters. On the other hand, they gutted their farm. So at first I just called it a wash and basked a little in its blockbusterness.

Not much has changed in my reaction since.

I will say this, however: In a really f*cked up way, I am so excited to see Miguel Cabrera bat in our division. I mean it.

by nickjs21 on Dec 4, 2007 10:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle

Can't assess whether or not it's a good trade until about five years from now. Detroit just got substantially better for opening day, no doubt. They're trading most of their farm system to win in '08 and '09, and while the general sentiment here seems to be that they're not going to be a threat past that point, that's around the time that we start having to resign free agents, too.

by maledicta on Dec 4, 2007 10:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel

Cabrera is very very good and I personally like Dontrelle and rooted for him on the Marlins, but I'm deeply skeptical of his performance moving to the AL Central. The guys at Beyond the Box Score say it better and more compactly than me:

Willis' 2007 was nasty, in fact his hitter's VORP of 14.7 was far superior to his 0.7 VORP for pitching, far cries from 2006 when he had a 40.5 VORP or 2005's 65.2 VORP. His ERA hit 5.17 last year, and for the third straight year his innings dropped, hits raised, runs raised, homeruns raised, walks raised, strikeouts dropped, and ERA as well as WHIP also shot up. In other words; despite only being 25 Willis' star seems to be in danger of fading from baseball phenomenon and superstar to back of the end rotation arm. You have to wonder how much all that abuse put on his arm by Joe Girardi plays into the downward trend, if any, it doesn't appear to be a luck factor either - his BABIP was .329, not too above his career averages, and below his xBABIP of .334.

If Miller's better than Willis next season, this deal really hinges from a Detroit perspective on exactly how monstrous Cabrera can be...

by APV on Dec 4, 2007 10:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel

Does anyone have quick access to projections for Andrew Miller v. D-Train for 2008 handy? Realize that league shift will be an issue, but just as a rough comparison...

by steincat on Dec 4, 2007 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel

Maybe they just got Willis for his pinch hitting skills.

by Toxicadam on Dec 4, 2007 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel

You have to wonder how much all that abuse put on his arm by Joe Girardi plays into the downward trend

As well as the other injuries Marlins' starters suffered in 2007 after being pushed hard in 2006.

For the love of God, New York, trade for Santana. As a baseball fan, Phil Hughes needs to get out of there.

by nickjs21 on Dec 4, 2007 10:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

As others have mentioned - it's great to have this board to read. Thanks for all the insightful comments!!!

I would really like to know how this deal came together. Did Detroit approach Florida with an offer for both? Or was one of the players an "afterthought"?

by Spidey on Dec 4, 2007 10:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

According to this article, the Marlins sought out the Tigers, and it all happened very quickly:

http://www.miamiherald.com/589/story/331900.html

by rden on Dec 5, 2007 12:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Thanks!

by Spidey on Dec 5, 2007 2:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit

In other news, Rotoworld is reporting that Two Junior Bacon Cheeseburgers were acquired by Nick for cash considerations and a stomach ache to be named later.

They were delicious, and a valuable addition to my intestines.

by nickjs21 on Dec 4, 2007 11:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit

So did the Pirates sort of

by Brick. on Dec 4, 2007 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit

Hmm. I figured after the Indians were done doing Whatever Trades We're Doing This Offseason, there'd be a roster spot left to resign Gomez.

by nickjs21 on Dec 5, 2007 12:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Personally, I'm having a hard time getting all worked up about this trade. Then again, I'm prone to moments of extreme naivete.

I don't see Willis improving the Tiger's staff much, if at all. Pitching was an issue for Detroit going in and it still is after this trade, in my opinion.

Like others have said above, age and regression to the mean for a few of Detroit's major run producers will likely detract from what appears to be a NY caliber offense on paper. Sheffield and Rodriguez don't scare me and I seriously doubt Ordonez can come close to his 2007 numbers again. Their offense will be better than ours, but I think our pitching still closes the overall gap.

I'm probably going to sound like an idiot, but I'm more concerned about how it's going to be nearly impossible to beat Boston in the playoffs once they get Santana. So thanks for that, Minnesota.

by Pronk33 on Dec 4, 2007 11:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

OK, I'll drop it after this because nobody seems interested (and please let me know if there is a more appropriate place to have this discussion), but what would anybody out there think is an appropriate offer for Dan Haren? As I said, I'm not completely sold, as he's only had one good year, but his contract is solid for the Tribe and his innings are consistent. Would he give us another #1, #2 type starter, thus giving our current rotation more depth (not organizational depth), or would we merely be shuffling chairs at the cost of top prospects?

I know we need a bat, but given contract values, if we could seriously upgrade our starting pitching for 3 years/$16M and prospects, instead of marginally upgrade our LF/3B for prospects and way more money, I lean towards the pitching.

by pdxtribefan on Dec 5, 2007 12:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

It's just that there's probably four different diaries with the same discussion somewhere internally.

A lot, is the short answer. Beane isn't going to get pushed around like the Twins are, because he doesn't have to trade Haren.

by nickjs21 on Dec 5, 2007 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Great point about Beane's general approach AND stronger position. That just about brought me back to earth. Just the idea of he and Shapiro trying to work out a deal should have clued me in to how unlikely it is. Thanks.

Aside, do you think Haren is worth what he'll get, and what do you think Beane really thinks he's worth?

by pdxtribefan on Dec 5, 2007 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

As Nick said, there are diaries. But I'll play. If I'm Beane I start at:

Gutz, Shoppach, and Miller and Mills or Weglarz. That's probably crazy high but that's where I start, with the idea that I might take Shoppach out if I can do something like Josh Rodriguez and Chuck Lofgren.

This is just me guessing though and I'm not terribly good at this kind of thing.

by afh4 on Dec 5, 2007 12:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

I'd amend that to get two pitchers back.

by nickjs21 on Dec 5, 2007 12:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Thanks! Just found the diaries. Never even seen that part of the site. Wow, there goes what work might have gotten done tonight. Appreciate the heads up, (you too Nick)!

by pdxtribefan on Dec 5, 2007 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Appropriate? 3 years, $15M, 3.50ish ERA pitcher?

Honestly, I think he's worth more than Santana because you don't have to file for bankruptcy after trading for him. Plus, there's always the option of trading him later on.

Piece #1: Organization's top prospect
- Adam Miller

The A's are set at two outfield positions (Swisher, Buck), second base (Ellis), first base (Barton) and catcher (Suzuki).

Piece #2: Package of three prospects
- Marte/Hodges, Brown/Crow/Gutierrez and Lofgren

I think Haren is worth this much. But I'd rather take the chance Adam Miller turns into the next Roy Hallady. Don't give up on Miller prematurely. It took Halladay a while to overcome injures and put it together too. Give him time. The guy posted a 4.82 ERA last year and is rated by milb.com as the #10 prospect!!!!

by crazymoloh on Dec 5, 2007 12:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Harden is probably more of an injury concern than Miller is and Miller has the higher upside.

by hans on Dec 5, 2007 12:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Oh man, sorry. Didn't realize we were talking about trading for Har(d)en. With all the Haren talk buzzing out around, I get confused.

by crazymoloh on Dec 5, 2007 1:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Harden?

by nickjs21 on Dec 5, 2007 1:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Eh?

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Dec 5, 2007 1:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Alright guys, I'm an idiot.... its late, I think time for bed.

Haren damn it Haren... this and my misquote of a line from Ghost Busters earlier today really sent me off the tracks...

I'll go get'em tomorrow!

by hans on Dec 5, 2007 1:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Good game, slugger.

by nickjs21 on Dec 5, 2007 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands

Final thought:

The scariest thing about this, for me, is that Dombrowski did it and Dombrowski is really great at his job, financial freedom understood.

If Bowden had done this, I'd probably be a lot harder on it. I think Willis is absolutely in the can.

by afh4 on Dec 5, 2007 12:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Detroit got a shiny new toy.

NYY got a shiny new(ish) toy.

LAA got a shiny new toy.

BoSox are getting a shiny new toy.

I want a shiny new toy.

by gte619n on Dec 5, 2007 8:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Any other reaction is just idealism. Even if they did deplete their farm system (they didn't), this trade probably made Shapiro re-evaluate his off-season plans. Let's face it, the Indians' simulation of the upcoming season just took a tumble. Granted, this does not including defense, but Inge's MLV (runs created in a manner) was -17 last year, Cabrera's was 59. That's a swing of 5-8 victories next year...ouch.

by Thommy on Dec 5, 2007 8:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wil

Nate Silver also put up a pretty positive take. But he is a Tigers fan.

by NickFantana on Dec 5, 2007 9:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera

I hope Larry Beinfest makes a lot of money, because otherwise his talents are terribly wasted in Miami.

by MTF on Dec 5, 2007 9:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera

I think this trade is more interesting in how it affects the Marlins. They have--dare I say--the most exciting young club in baseball.

This is a damn good move for them, adding up to lots of depth for the rotation to go with several high potential guys, plus the one they've added in Miller. Josh Johnson is coming back from injury; VandenHurk looks like he could be awesome. They're unbelievably loaded in the most important category.

And they're all young. Here we go again.

And they get Maybin, whom I think is incredible.

by homelytourist on Dec 5, 2007 11:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera

Just for fun, who are these pitchers (career comps)?

W-L% ERA H/IP K/BB WHIP SLG. OBA
A .600 4.64 1.03 2.15 1.38 .458 .327

B .557 3.78 1.02 2.20 1.36 .405 .332

by MTF on Dec 5, 2007 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera

Cliff Lee and Dontrelle Willis. (I have no idea.)

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Dec 5, 2007 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera

A. Cliff Lee
B. Dontrelle Willis

by Pronktastic on Dec 5, 2007 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera

You are both right. I was surprised at some of the similarities in those numbers.

by MTF on Dec 5, 2007 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera

Hooray.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Dec 5, 2007 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera

That's terrific... a quick, concise way to let the Detroit homers know that Willis isn't the guy they remember pitching lights out a few years back.

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Dec 5, 2007 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit lands Miguel Cabrera

The K/BB ratio is really important here. A ratio around 2 is "acceptable" for a back end of the rotation pitcher in the NL. But, as we see with Lee, this is not the case in the league with the DH hitting instead of the pitcher.

Willis might bounce back, but I think it will be in 2009, not 2008 if at all. This does add a little pressure to us improving how we hit lefties though...which I don't recall was that well last year. Det now has three (although they are the worst of their five starters).

by hans on Dec 5, 2007 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs