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Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6

Recap
Boxscore
Win Probability Graph @ Fangraphs

Highest WPA:

Kelly Shoppach .172
Andy Marte .169
Joe Borowski .078

Lowest WPA:

Trot Nixon -.089
Roberto Hernandez -.082
Aaron Fultz -.014

First of all, huge props go to the fans of Milwaukee. The tickets were just $10 a piece, but getting 19,000 fans to Miller Park on such short notice is an amazing feat. You can't say enough about the atmosphere tonight.

As far as the game on the field is concerned, the  things that were good last year were good for this game, and the aspects that were horrible previously were the same tonight. The offense gave CC Sabathia a lead early, lead by home runs by Kelly Shoppach and Casey Blake. Andy Marte pulled two doubles down the left field line, and Grady Sizemore walked and stole thrice tonight.

The bullpen was awful. Roberto Hernandez relieved Sabathia in the eighth and committed the cardinal sin of relieving: walks. You could blame the lack of command on the layoff, but he did this in Chicago as well. Rafael Betancourt eventually got out of the inning, but the lead was but two runs. Joe Borowski got the save (and consequently, a high WPA), but it was Kelly Shoppach who ended the game by nailing Erick Aybar at second base. Borowski gave up two hits and a run, and was facing a red-hot Howie Kendrick when Aybar attempted to steal. Thank you, Mike Scioscia.

Next Up: Game Two against the Angels in Milwaukee.  The forecast outside is for copious amounts of snow, but the forecast inside is much better, thanks to the roof. Gametime is @7:05 PM.

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Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Just got back from the game.  I have always loved the Brewers, but the Indians sure are easy to root for.  I think I have a favorite AL team.  Love CC, Grady, Haefner and Peralta.  One thing though, you guys need a closer.

But seriously, it was a lot of fun tonight and I'll be back tomorrow, even though we are supposed to get a foot of snow before the scheduled first pitch it'll be cozy inside Miller Park!

Thanks for letting us borrow your team Cleveland!  And best of luck this year, if the baseball Gods smile on us we could see you guys again in October!!!

by RyDogg66 on Apr 10, 2007 11:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
I think Scioscia had to send him. It took a high fastball from Borowski and a perfect throw by Shoppach to get him, and I'll take those odds anyday if I'm managing.

Fultz looked good again, but Borowski and Hernandez, oh boy. I don't want to talk about it. Also, I've been very impressed with Peralta's ABs. It really does look like he is seeing the ball better.

Finally, I guessed that 1,000 would show up for the game. I was only off by one and a half orders of magnitude.

by oxforddave on Apr 10, 2007 11:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
I somewhat agree, but at the same time, Shoppach has been awesome this spring at nailing runners. It was an aggressive move, and would have worked had Vic been catching.

by hans on Apr 11, 2007 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
If Victor Martinez was catching, then it would be a good risk to take. But they knew that Shoppach's strength is his arm, and you also have a struggling pitcher facing a 4-for-4 Kendrick.

by Ryan on Apr 11, 2007 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
The Indians were able to win tonight, while the Mariners looked awful.  But that's not really fair, because BASEBALL ISN'T PLAYED WITH FOUR DAY LAY-OFFS!

Look, if we're having a hot dog eating contest, and a bunch of baboons kidnap the contestants for four days, and I'm the first to escape and finish the hot dogs, it doesn't make me the new Kobayashi.  It makes me a guy who can escape baboons.

Do you really think Josh Beckett would have rolled over the Mariners lineup if they had played on Sunday?  No way, BECAUSE YOU DON'T PLAY BASEBALL WITH FOUR DAYS OFF BETWEEN GAMES.

by dgcambridge on Apr 10, 2007 11:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Hahahahaha.  But you're posting it on the wrong blog, no?

by Jay on Apr 10, 2007 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Jay, can you post a link?  I'm missing the joke.

by painaxl on Apr 11, 2007 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
It's a parody on a Lookout Landing (SB Nation's Mariners blog) post after Friday's game.

by Ryan on Apr 11, 2007 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Wow.  I would insult the quality of that guy's post, but look out - COBRA ATTACK!

by rog on Apr 11, 2007 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Hysterical ... "Cleveland's used to the cold weather."  Yeah, all our guys spend their winters on the shore of Lake Erie to get used to playing in early April.  What a joke.

by CU Adam on Apr 11, 2007 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Tempting, but no.  It's too late now, I should have put it up before yesterday's game.  Now they just got run over, and considering the year they have ahead, it would be a weak move.

by dgcambridge on Apr 11, 2007 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Actually, it was a three-day layoff, since baseball was played on Friday, just not officially.  Though, given the way the Mariners couldn't hit Paul Byrd and couldn't field or throw the ball, it could be argued pretty reasonably that the Indians played on Friday and the Mariners did not.
Unofficial Andy Marte and Joe Borowski Apologist. My fantasy team - Swindon SpecOps 27.

by woodsmeister on Apr 11, 2007 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Two thoughts went through my head repeatedly tonight:
  1.  It was great to have baseball back, no matter where it was played.

  2.  What the heck does F-Cab have to do to get into a game?

by jds16 on Apr 10, 2007 11:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
My friend suggested that JD and F-Cab walk by the manager's office before the game in different moustaches and beards to see if Wedge will think he's got new relievers and give them a shot.

Seriously, though, what gives?  Roberto Hernandez has pitched in each official Indians game so far and F-Cab hasn't seen a batter?

by painaxl on Apr 11, 2007 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
They need to dress-up in their "good clubhouse guy" outfits and then walk by.

by rog on Apr 11, 2007 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
I agree about Fernando, but at this point, I don't want his first game to come in a high leverage situation ... let him shake some rust off in a meaningless inning.

Also, in the NL, does the Wave run counter-clockwise, like an Australian toilet?

by nickjs21 on Apr 11, 2007 12:20 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
No, it just goes in slow-motion.  That was a strange thing to see.

And the Australian toilet deal is a myth.  The Coriolis effect acts only on a large scale.

by jds16 on Apr 11, 2007 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
The A's scored the go-ahead run on a deep fly to left that hit Scott Podsednik on the head . . . flashback to Jose Canseco (except it didn't go over the wall this time).

by mplswahoo on Apr 11, 2007 12:51 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
I am still trying to grasp how WPA works. I thought Fultz did well so did he end up with a negative number? Also, the slow motion and fast forward waves were awesome.
Wait 'til next year... or something like that

by Brad D on Apr 11, 2007 1:49 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Fultz did give up a hit with the bases loaded. Granted it was a seeing eye three-hopper, but WPA does not know that.

by oxforddave on Apr 11, 2007 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
WPA seems to be crediting JoBo with Shoppach's game-ender as well -- yet Shoppach gets the highest rating for the game nonetheless.

So much for "rusty."

by Jay on Apr 11, 2007 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Yeah this is a problem with the automated WPA. Great defensive plays (e.g. Shoppach last night) are credited to the pitcher, while obvious defensive boners are subtracted from the pitcher. In other words, the defense as a whole is only reflected in the pitcher. To do WPA "correctly" these defensive adjustments need to be added by hand. I vaguely remember reading that some people do this, I haven't looked hard for them, especially as fangraphs has such a nice interface.

by oxforddave on Apr 11, 2007 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Not sure if someone else has posted this, but isn't it a little funny that this 3 game set has the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. the Cleveland Indians of Milwaukee?
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Apr 11, 2007 12:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
There's a nice discussion here of what a bad idea it likely was to send Aybar in last night's game.

H/T to Dave Pinto at Baseball Musings for the link.

by APV on Apr 11, 2007 1:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Interesting takes on the percentages. The breakeven percentage of 70% seems about right. If you think the success chance of Aybar stealing the base is less than 65%, he should stay. If you think the success chance of Aybar is greater than 75%, he should go. If it is between 65-75, that is too close of a call, and either decision is about equal.

I happen to think his success chance was greater than 75% (Borowski seems to be poor at holding the running game, while Shoppach is better than average), so I think it was a fine decision. Even if it is less than 65% chance, it is not that bad of an idea. At least not as bad as an idea of having Borowski as your closer in the first place.  

by oxforddave on Apr 11, 2007 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
The point about having Kendrick at the plate also has to be factored in.  He's an above average batter.

by APV on Apr 11, 2007 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Yeah, but Napoli was on deck (a below average batter), and without a SB you'll likely need hits from both of them to tie the game. With a stolen base you only need Kendrick to come through.

Again point being, this decision was pretty much a toss-up, and in that case a manager has to go with his gut. Your mileage may vary.

Apparently it smarts for Angels fans as so far they have lost three games with two of them ending on an Aybar caught stealing.

by oxforddave on Apr 11, 2007 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
I'm pretty sure it was in the MLB recap (maybe ESPN though) where Sciosia said that it was Aybar's choice to steal. He said the choice wouldn't have been there if they didn't think it was a good option but it's a distinction, I guess.

by afh4 on Apr 11, 2007 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
How long does take to type "hat-tip?"

by Jay on Apr 11, 2007 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
How long does it take to type "laugh out loud?"

by Joe. on Apr 11, 2007 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
i think that one went over your head like a fly ball to scott podsednik

by Brick. on Apr 11, 2007 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
I forgot about Jay's wrath towards the use of unnecessary acronyms.  Next time I'll remember to ask, WWJD...

by APV on Apr 11, 2007 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
I'm not anti-acronym, I'm anti-emoticon.

by Jay on Apr 11, 2007 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
I thought emoticons were those little faces made with key symbols...

by APV on Apr 11, 2007 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Right.  I don't do many acronyms either, though I will toss around FYI, FWIW, even an occasional BTW.  The only internet-invented one I like is IMNTLBFHO, for obvious reasons.

by Jay on Apr 11, 2007 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
BTW, TBH, FWIW IONO "H/T" should TYT, IMO

by Brick. on Apr 11, 2007 4:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
I wish I knew all of those .....INON? TYT??

by talonk on Apr 11, 2007 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
By The Way, To Be Honest, For What It's Worth I don't Know "H/T" should Take Your Time, In My Opinion.

Translates about as well as when I try to speak Spanish, but I didn't want to think any longer than I already did about it...

by Brick. on Apr 11, 2007 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
All of them make sense except the IONO one. I understand its translation (I=I, 0=don't, NO=know), but it isnt the most obvious. I knew all the others.

WE = whatever .....

by talonk on Apr 11, 2007 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Four: Indians 7, Angels 6
Looks like Bueherlelhe is getting knocked around early again...

by Brick. on Apr 11, 2007 4:10 PM EDT reply actions  

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