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Around SBN: The Gift Of The 2003 Tigers

Cover Boy

Oh, he looks so serious!

SI goes on a bit of a team-building frenzy this month.  In addition to the fawning Sizemore profile, Tom Verducci picks 10 players to start a franchise with, and Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver updates his Top 50 Most Valuable Properties in the game today.

Verducci's list puts Sizemore at #2, behind only Miggy Cabrera, and Joe Mauer at #6.  The rest of the AL Central is shut out, although two Royals make the three-man "needs more time" list.

Silver's "properties" ranking is based on projections of performance over the next five seasons, as per the well regarded PECOTA system.  It does not take into account contract value, e.g., the fact that A-Rod will make ten times more money than Sizemore, just value on the field.  Mauer and Johan Santana have moved up into the #2 and #3 spots.  Sizemore has jumped from #14 to #5, and the Pronk from #33 to #21.  C.C., unranked last year, debuts on the list at #17 with this glorious prose:

"... if you really want to talk about freaks of nature, the discussion probably has to begin with Sabathia ... not only has Sabathia's strikeout rate improved in each of the last three seasons running, but his walk rate has also declined. He's the most intimidating specimen on the mound since Don Drysdale, and his peak may be just as good." -- Nate Silver
Victor holds steady in the mid-30's, notably just ahead of pretend-MVP Justin Morneau.  Verlander and Bonderman make the list, too, though Detroit fans may complain that they're only ranked #30 and #49 respectively.  And in the latest chapter of a heartwarming story we'll be enjoying for years to come, the #43 slot goes to Chris Young, a manifestly talented center fielder who was traded idiotically by the White Sox for Javier Vazquez.  As for current White Sox: Zero -- for the second year in a row.  They didn't even score one of the 13 honorable mention spots.

Jhonny Peralta headlines the "dropped off the list list," having been slotted at #15 a year ago, joining other partly faded young stars like Michael Young and Eric Chavez.  (Silver notes that Jhonny's 2007 resurgence is "inconclusive," which it is, based on sample size, but then oddly notes his low batting average as the reason, as though he doesn't know about peripherals.)  On a similar note, I think Silver would say that a year ago, he expected Andy Marte to crack the list this year, but it hasn't happened.  And Barfield, for all his charms, is not quite on the same talent level as the other players here.

The SI.com baseball blog "Fungoes" also suggests -- strictly tongue-in-cheek -- that Travis Hafner demand a trade, lest he fall prey to the slump afflicting the division's best hitters.  The blog entry notes that even Victor Martinez, who has not been in a slump, did a stint on the Disabled List -- which, of course, he didn't.

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Re: Cover Boy
He's giving the ladies (and AngG) that come hither stare.

by Brick. on May 8, 2007 3:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
I'm definitely a lady, dude. Just not a Grady's Lady. :)

by AngG on May 8, 2007 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
I know, should have Capitalized Ladies to make it clear

by Brick. on May 8, 2007 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Just was gonna post about those articles Jay ..... great minds (nah!) think alike ...

I saw we have 4 of the Top 50 ....

by talonk on May 8, 2007 3:54 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Verducci's list was only 10 deep wasn't it?  Are you counting honorable mentions, etc?
-Erik

by drerikbrady on May 8, 2007 3:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Still updating the article for that stuff ...

by Jay on May 8, 2007 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Sorry, jumped the gun then.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on May 8, 2007 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
South Side Sox scorring a credit on Fungoes.

by Brick. on May 8, 2007 3:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
I cannot believe Ortiz is ahead of Hafner. When will it end?

by afh4 on May 8, 2007 4:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Hafner is the better hitter but the difference is nearly negligible. It's not that big a deal.

by Joe. on May 8, 2007 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Obviously it's not a big deal. It's just a silly list.

But still, Hafner is clearly, clearly better. The only thing I can see is if you made an argument that Hafner is doing something that causes him to get hit by pitches.

by afh4 on May 8, 2007 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
PECOTA knows when players miss playing time, but it doesn't know why.  So it knows that Ortiz has made it to the plate an average of 118 times more per sesaon than Hafner has -- 2004-2006 -- and it doesn't question whether it was a fluke or not.  Hafner is compared with other players throughout history who missed some games every year, both the flukes and the non-flukes.  I imagine that has something to do with why Ortiz gets the nod.

Yes, that was really 118 extra PA's per season.

by Jay on May 8, 2007 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Yeah, but Silver is compiling the list, not Pecota, right? At least the way he writes it he talks like he's making judgement calls left and right.

And he knows Hafner has just had bad luck and he has to know Hafner is appreciably better.

Alright, I'm done with it. I'd probably think Ortiz was better too if I didn't cheer for the Indians. I mean, he's on tv every day, right?

by afh4 on May 8, 2007 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
I'm sure national exposure is a part of the overall perception of the difference between Pronk and Ortiz.  But you'd hope that a writer might be able to step away from that.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on May 8, 2007 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
I would actually expect the writer to be more of a contributing factor to that. The media is the biggest part of Ortiz getting more exposure.
Founding member of DrBradyQuinn's Medicine Ladies.

by Brad D on May 8, 2007 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Their OPS were identical last year. Appreciably better? This isn't like comparing Sizemore to Taveras.

by Joe. on May 8, 2007 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Hafner's OPS was 1097. Ortiz' was 1049.

Hafner's RC/G was 10.4. Ortiz' was 8.6.

These aren't huge differences but they're the differences that separate elite hitters in the AL.

Plus Hafner is younger.

by afh4 on May 8, 2007 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Right. Hafner is the better hitter. But the difference is not appreciable.

by Joe. on May 8, 2007 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
This is semantics. If you think he's better than you agree with how I was using appreciably, as in "enough to be measured." If you want to pick a different word, go for it.

by afh4 on May 8, 2007 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
  1. Age - Pronk is 19 months younger.

  2. Park - Using OPS+, Pronk has 183-170-158, Ortiz has 164-161-145.

For the purpose of this exercise, those are both significant differences.

by Jay on May 8, 2007 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Coming full circle, to combine Pronk's performance advantage with Ortiz's durability advantage, we can just use Runs Created, which also is park adjusted.

Pronk - 130, 116, 111
Ortiz - 146, 146, 134

And there you have it.  I am now arguing with myself.

by Jay on May 8, 2007 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
But my point is that you have to reasonably throw the 'durability' advantage out unless you can prove to me that Pronk gets hit by pitches by his own volition.

I should've used OPS+ to start with but why doesn't THT list it? Do they not have 'stat rights' to it or something?

by afh4 on May 8, 2007 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
You can't throw out the durability advantage. There are definite correlations with durability from year to year. I'd personally put them as almost exactly equal, but if forced to take one over the other, I'd choose the guy who has played full seasons.

by oxforddave on May 8, 2007 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
HBP is definitely a persistent skill/tendency as any number of studies have shown -- if it weren't, all the smarty statty folk wouldn't incorporate it into OBP, Runs Created and every other advanced stat.

Craig Biggio is the most prolific human-target in the history of the game -- just four shy of the all-time HBP mark of 287 -- a record that has not changed hands since 1901 by the way.  By the time he was Pronk's age, Biggio had been nailed 58 ties, compared with 45 for Pronk.

Despite this, Biggio reached 600-plus plate appearances for the fifth time that season -- would've been six but for the strike -- and has now reached 600 a stunning 15 times, eight times reaching 700 in fact.  Pronk has never reached 600 even once.

So there is a tendency to be HBP, and I believe there is a tendency to acquire trivial injuries in the course of normal play (or not to).  At this point, I think the burden of proof has shifted to those who want to say that Pronk missing 20-30 games a year isn't a fluke.

by Jay on May 8, 2007 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
I see what you're saying but with Hafner, the last two seasons are not just run of the mill HBPs. He gets hit in the head once and way up on the hand once. I'm willing to believe that those two instances are freak accidents.

Hafner's not gonna miss more than 10 games this year due to injury.

Regardless, I'm tired of this. Hafner's better to me, whatever that means.

by afh4 on May 8, 2007 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
I don't think Pronk's penchant for being on the DL can be entirely dismissed as flukey.  And Erik, I don't think Nate Silver, the creator of PECOTA, is particularly swayed by national media coverage to favor Ortiz.  Nor, I expect, is he unduly suckered by WPA.

by Jay on May 8, 2007 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
"I cannot believe Ortiz is ahead of Hafner. When will it end?"

It will all end when they start comparing players' values objectively, instead of subjectively.

There's a REAL VALUE formula to determine this, but it has too many greek symbols for me to interpet.

by kov on May 8, 2007 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Hafner was 33 last year.

by Joe. on May 8, 2007 4:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
He means ranked 33, by the way.

by Jay on May 8, 2007 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
...because drawing walks was the one area in which Sizemore was merely very good, as opposed to supernaturally great.

YES YES YES

GOD BLESS YOU MARK SHAPIRO, GOD BLESS YOU.

by afh4 on May 8, 2007 4:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
That's from Silver. I tried to get a block quote but somehow failed and ended up with nothing. Hmmm.

by afh4 on May 8, 2007 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Crazy that Bobby Crosby is now "no better than league average."

Baseball changes so, so fast.

by afh4 on May 8, 2007 4:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
And Michael Young is 30? Sorry for this thread hi-jack, I'm just reeling with all this information over here.

by afh4 on May 8, 2007 4:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
If I read this correctly, Silver's list was a combination of PECOTA and his own biases. For instance, I think that PECOTA had Peralta basically the same in value as Reyes and H. Ramirez, but they are in the top 10 here, and Peralta does not even garner an honorable mention.    

I'm not saying that Peralta should be equal to these guys, but is just the plain PECOTA list available somewhere?  I don't remember seeing it at BPro.

by oxforddave on May 8, 2007 5:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Don't miss the Fungoes link (the last bullet on the blog) to a PD article about Christopher Trot Nixon's pie-throwing abilities.

by JulioBernazard on May 8, 2007 5:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
I like Grady and I'm glad to see him on the cover of sports illustrated. However I think the tab of "one of the greatest players of our generation" by Tom Verducci is a little too much to ask for Grady. He has two fine seasons but nothing, at least not yet, to greatest of our generation. I think Grady has a big career ahead of him but I do not want the pressure of coverboy or the SI jynx to affect him.

by Wild Thing on May 8, 2007 6:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
36 comments before the notion of a jinx was brought up.  better than i expected to be honest.

by Brick. on May 8, 2007 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
that's actually a quote from Shapiro. maybe he wants to make sure Grady still likes him enough in four years to sign another extension.

by nctribefan on May 8, 2007 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Is it too early for the chicken littles to start panicking over this?

by Jay on May 8, 2007 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Of course not. We can't handle good things happening.

by Ryan on May 9, 2007 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Best article ever written in any magazine, on any topic, in any language, by like a million percent.

by fleerdon on May 8, 2007 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
No problem.
http://disappointmentzone.wordpress.com/

by osoc13 on May 8, 2007 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
the article does a good job of pointing out that Grady is almost as gritty as Trot Nixon.

"He's the kind of player every manager wants," Toronto manager John Gibbons says. "He can do it all, but what's so great is he plays the game the right way and he gives your team energy every day. He's a dirtbag. He'll do whatever he can to beat you."

Says the elder Sizemore, "He only knew one way to play: the right way."

"He was the most disciplined teenage hitter I have ever seen," says LaCava. "Twenty-pitch nights were not uncommon for him. And he played the game the right way from Day One. He ran hard 90 feet to first base all the time and had a quiet confidence and determination. The package was all there."

i'm calling bullsh*t on this one, though:

Asked what he loves most about baseball, Sizemore makes no mention of any individual skill or event. "What's great is it really takes nine guys working together to win," he says. "Just to see it happen ... you take batting practice, ground balls, study the pitcher, then come together as a team.... There are one-on-one moments inside a game, but when everybody comes together and you win as a team, that's the best part."

there's no way that's more true of baseball than of football.

by nctribefan on May 8, 2007 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Pitchers who throw as hard as Zambrano and do as good a job of keeping the ball down are rare -- the last really good one was Kevin Brown --

Should make us appreciate even more what we have been seeing lately from our Number 6 starter.

by SuddenSam on May 8, 2007 8:57 PM EDT reply actions  

CC most intimidating?
He's the most intimidating specimen on the mound since Don Drysdale,

More intimidating than Randy Johnson, at his peak?  

by CaptainEasy on May 8, 2007 9:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Cover Boy
Great to see our Tribe in the spotlight!
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on May 8, 2007 9:40 PM EDT reply actions  

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