Cover Boy
SI goes on a bit of a team-building frenzy this month. In addition to the fawning Sizemore profile, Tom Verducci picks 10 players to start a franchise with, and Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver updates his Top 50 Most Valuable Properties in the game today.
Verducci's list puts Sizemore at #2, behind only Miggy Cabrera, and Joe Mauer at #6. The rest of the AL Central is shut out, although two Royals make the three-man "needs more time" list.
Silver's "properties" ranking is based on projections of performance over the next five seasons, as per the well regarded PECOTA system. It does not take into account contract value, e.g., the fact that A-Rod will make ten times more money than Sizemore, just value on the field. Mauer and Johan Santana have moved up into the #2 and #3 spots. Sizemore has jumped from #14 to #5, and the Pronk from #33 to #21. C.C., unranked last year, debuts on the list at #17 with this glorious prose:
Jhonny Peralta headlines the "dropped off the list list," having been slotted at #15 a year ago, joining other partly faded young stars like Michael Young and Eric Chavez. (Silver notes that Jhonny's 2007 resurgence is "inconclusive," which it is, based on sample size, but then oddly notes his low batting average as the reason, as though he doesn't know about peripherals.) On a similar note, I think Silver would say that a year ago, he expected Andy Marte to crack the list this year, but it hasn't happened. And Barfield, for all his charms, is not quite on the same talent level as the other players here.
The SI.com baseball blog "Fungoes" also suggests -- strictly tongue-in-cheek -- that Travis Hafner demand a trade, lest he fall prey to the slump afflicting the division's best hitters. The blog entry notes that even Victor Martinez, who has not been in a slump, did a stint on the Disabled List -- which, of course, he didn't.
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51 comments
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Re: Cover Boy
by Brick. on
May 8, 2007 3:52 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by AngG on
May 8, 2007 9:58 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by Brick. on
May 8, 2007 10:05 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
I saw we have 4 of the Top 50 ....
by talonk on
May 8, 2007 3:54 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by drerikbrady on
May 8, 2007 3:55 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by Jay on
May 8, 2007 3:56 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by drerikbrady on
May 8, 2007 4:00 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by Brick. on
May 8, 2007 3:58 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by afh4 on
May 8, 2007 4:25 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by Joe. on
May 8, 2007 4:35 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
But still, Hafner is clearly, clearly better. The only thing I can see is if you made an argument that Hafner is doing something that causes him to get hit by pitches.
by afh4 on
May 8, 2007 4:38 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
Yes, that was really 118 extra PA's per season.
by Jay on
May 8, 2007 4:43 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
And he knows Hafner has just had bad luck and he has to know Hafner is appreciably better.
Alright, I'm done with it. I'd probably think Ortiz was better too if I didn't cheer for the Indians. I mean, he's on tv every day, right?
by afh4 on
May 8, 2007 4:44 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by drerikbrady on
May 8, 2007 4:48 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by fwembt on
May 8, 2007 4:54 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by Joe. on
May 8, 2007 4:53 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
Hafner's RC/G was 10.4. Ortiz' was 8.6.
These aren't huge differences but they're the differences that separate elite hitters in the AL.
Plus Hafner is younger.
by afh4 on
May 8, 2007 4:59 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by Joe. on
May 8, 2007 5:03 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by afh4 on
May 8, 2007 5:05 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
- Age - Pronk is 19 months younger.
- Park - Using OPS+, Pronk has 183-170-158, Ortiz has 164-161-145.
by Jay on
May 8, 2007 5:06 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
Pronk - 130, 116, 111
Ortiz - 146, 146, 134
And there you have it. I am now arguing with myself.
by Jay on
May 8, 2007 5:09 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
I should've used OPS+ to start with but why doesn't THT list it? Do they not have 'stat rights' to it or something?
by afh4 on
May 8, 2007 5:12 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by oxforddave on
May 8, 2007 5:20 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
Craig Biggio is the most prolific human-target in the history of the game -- just four shy of the all-time HBP mark of 287 -- a record that has not changed hands since 1901 by the way. By the time he was Pronk's age, Biggio had been nailed 58 ties, compared with 45 for Pronk.
Despite this, Biggio reached 600-plus plate appearances for the fifth time that season -- would've been six but for the strike -- and has now reached 600 a stunning 15 times, eight times reaching 700 in fact. Pronk has never reached 600 even once.
So there is a tendency to be HBP, and I believe there is a tendency to acquire trivial injuries in the course of normal play (or not to). At this point, I think the burden of proof has shifted to those who want to say that Pronk missing 20-30 games a year isn't a fluke.
by Jay on
May 8, 2007 5:33 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
Hafner's not gonna miss more than 10 games this year due to injury.
Regardless, I'm tired of this. Hafner's better to me, whatever that means.
by afh4 on
May 8, 2007 5:44 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by Jay on
May 8, 2007 4:59 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
It will all end when they start comparing players' values objectively, instead of subjectively.
There's a REAL VALUE formula to determine this, but it has too many greek symbols for me to interpet.
by kov on
May 8, 2007 5:26 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by Jay on
May 8, 2007 5:34 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
YES YES YES
GOD BLESS YOU MARK SHAPIRO, GOD BLESS YOU.
by afh4 on
May 8, 2007 4:32 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by afh4 on
May 8, 2007 4:33 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
Baseball changes so, so fast.
by afh4 on
May 8, 2007 4:39 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by afh4 on
May 8, 2007 4:40 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
I'm not saying that Peralta should be equal to these guys, but is just the plain PECOTA list available somewhere? I don't remember seeing it at BPro.
by oxforddave on
May 8, 2007 5:15 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by JulioBernazard on
May 8, 2007 5:18 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by Wild Thing on
May 8, 2007 6:39 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by Brick. on
May 8, 2007 6:42 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by nctribefan on
May 8, 2007 9:23 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by Jay on
May 8, 2007 10:18 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by Ryan on
May 9, 2007 1:03 AM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by osoc13 on
May 8, 2007 7:04 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by fleerdon on
May 8, 2007 8:59 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by osoc13 on
May 8, 2007 8:50 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
i'm calling bullsh*t on this one, though:
there's no way that's more true of baseball than of football.
by nctribefan on
May 8, 2007 9:21 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
Should make us appreciate even more what we have been seeing lately from our Number 6 starter.
by SuddenSam on
May 8, 2007 8:57 PM EDT
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CC most intimidating?
More intimidating than Randy Johnson, at his peak?
by CaptainEasy on
May 8, 2007 9:00 PM EDT
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Re: Cover Boy
by Turkmenbashi on
May 8, 2007 9:40 PM EDT
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