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Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

by Jay on Jun 8, 2007 10:25 AM EDT in News

I recently asked Jeff Albert what, if anything, was wrong with Travis Hafner's swing. Jeff writes occasional articles for Baseball Analysts and is probably the only contributor to the blogosphere who can speak to a player's mechanics with any real authority. He also is an avid follower of the Indians lineup in general who predicted good things for Peralta and Marte at the end of March.

Here are Jeff's full remarks regarding Hafner, unedited.

This clip compares Travis Hafner's swing from 2006 (left) to 2007 (right). Both swings are HRs to RF off of fastballs.

Although Hafner's OBP is on par with recent year, his SLG% is obviously down. Judging from these swings alone, there does not appear to be anything that is significantly different. Maintaining a high OBP and also a steady K% reinforces how similar the timing of his current swing appears to be to last season.

Normally, I do not like to point out differences unless they are very obvious. This one is getting picky, but it looks like Hafner arrived at contact last year with a spine angle tiltled slighty more towards the catcher. In theory, this would create more loft for fly balls. And the only reason I am pointing this out is because Hafner is hitting more ground balls this year.

Again, going from this video comparison, it is hard to attribute the increased ground balls to a change in swing mechanics, but it is something I would keep an eye on if I was monitoring Hafner's swing on a daily basis.

- Jeff Albert

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Comments

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

Keep the help coming for Pronk.

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jun 8, 2007 10:33 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

Impressive HTML work! I may stare at this all day.

by JulioBernazard on Jun 8, 2007 10:43 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

I think you mean the animated-GIF work, which is all Jeff.

by Jay on Jun 8, 2007 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

His shirt seemed darker in color last year.

by portlandtribefan on Jun 8, 2007 10:55 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

The Plain Dealer's sports guys wanted to do a feature like this . . . but then they woke up and had to go to work.

by ploni on Jun 8, 2007 11:16 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

Thanks, Jeff!

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 8, 2007 11:42 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

I notice that last year he was playing the Royals, whereas his HR this year came off the Yankees. I think he is stepping up his game against the tougher competition while last year he feasted off the dregs of the league. (Pro-Pronk spin, I'm a supporter).

I've changed my mechanics and now I throw over 100.

by Brad D on Jun 8, 2007 11:58 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

Tecnically speaking.....WOW!

by stuart dean on Jun 8, 2007 12:23 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

Unreal. Thanks.

by The DiaTriber on Jun 8, 2007 12:34 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

When was the 2007 video taken? If it was taken in April (when Pronk was hot) then we might be missing something. The video needs to be from a period when he was struggling. Lately it seems like he is starting his swing with his hands too far forward. I also think pitchers have been getting more of the inside corner this year - which is Pronk's weak spot. I suspect that this part of the reason for Sheffield's blow up. If you noticed during the Tiger's series, most of his complaining came on inside called strikes.

by notsince48 on Jun 8, 2007 12:43 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

Just to add. Shouldn't this year's swing example be a bad result? I mean, comparing two swings that led to good results doesn't really tell you much, other than he put a good swing on the ball.

by notsince48 on Jun 8, 2007 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

I believe the point is to minimize the external differences in the ABs (pitch, location, result) in order to effectively identify real differences in the swing. In other words, you want to, as best as possible, make sure you are comparing apples and apples.

by APV on Jun 8, 2007 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

What he said. In order to isolate year-over-year differences, you have to make the situations as similar as possible. Bowing to Jeff's expertise on this.

by Jay on Jun 8, 2007 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

That still doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Shouldn't we be looking at the swings where he didn't put a good stroke on the ball to determine what he is doing wrong? I mean, if you show two swings that resulted in homeruns, odds are the swings are (1) going to be similar; and (2) exhibit proper mechanics.

by notsince48 on Jun 8, 2007 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

Just to add. How about comparing fastball, inner half that resulted in homerun to fastball, inner half that resulted in chopper to second? I mean, the result is what we are trying to explain here.

by notsince48 on Jun 8, 2007 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

Although I've not extensively studied power sluggers swings via video record I have used video equipment to capture visual data for experimentation purposes, and I've got to say I agree with Jay, APV & Jeff. You need to isolate as much as possible what you can up to what your looking for. In this case its differences in swing mechanics. So if a bad swing is desired, say a weak grounder, then both cases need to be a weak grounder. And it goes much further than that. It needs to be the same pitch, the same type of swing (not one full swing versus an excuse-me swing), same pitch location, etc.

I'm quite impressed that the pitches/swings demonstrated are in two different ballparks and are from two different cameras are matched so closely in the physical action of what was happening and in camera aspect and size ratio.

by JK in CBus on Jun 8, 2007 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

I agree that you need the same pitch, location and count for a worthwhile comparison. But I disagree on result, and when I say result I mean whether or not he hit the ball hard. Whether the ball went over the fence or hit the top of the wall is meaningless. We are trying to explain why Travis is not hitting as well this year. Looking at swings that resulted in hard hit balls is not going to explain this. It will tell you what Travis needs to do mechanically to hit the ball well, but it will not tell you why he didn't in other at bats. To figure out what is breaking down mechanically, you need to look at those at bats (with similar pitch, location and count) when he didn't hit the ball hard and compare it to those where he did. Of course, there are some variable we cannot account for: what pitch was he looking for, what location was he looking for, where is his confidence level. But at the end of the day, if you want to understand why an orange is different from an apple, you need to compare the two.

by notsince48 on Jun 8, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

I think the point is that he's only looking for mechanical problems here. There are other things he might be doing wrong.

I think we're also supposed to take it as a given that these swings are representative of Pronk's swings in each year and not unusual. The author is familiar with Pronk's swing.

by Jay on Jun 8, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

We're also looking for very fine differences in mechanics. Pronk remains one of the greatest hitters in the world, an above-average major league hitter, even in a bad year. So his mechanics are always going to be "good."

by Jay on Jun 8, 2007 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

I understand that we are looking for mechanical problems. But how does looking at swings in April that resulted in well struck balls explain why Travis is not hitting in May? You need to look at the May at-bats where he did not hit the ball hard to determine if his failure is a result of his mechanics breaking down.

by notsince48 on Jun 8, 2007 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

To put a finer point on the Jeff Albert analysis - it seems as though there is a critical assumption at the heart of that analysis (that perhaps hasn't been stated explicitly enough) that goes to the very core of the back-and-forth dialogue/debate between Jay/APV/Jeff and notsince48.

The critical assumption (which, I also believe is a correct one) in the comparison between the 2006 Hafner home-run-swing and the 2007 Hafner home-run-swing is that the 2006 swing is the "good Hafner" swing and the 2007 swing (even though it resulted in a HR) is the "bad Hafner" swing. That is, even though a successful HR swing was used to compare 2007 Hafner to his 2006 counterpart, it is likely that the same inherent flaw in his swing this year was present during that 2007 home run.

If so, then two home-run-swing at bats would seem to provide the best basis for comparison (ie., the swing scenario where the most variables can be controlled).

by mplswahoo on Jun 8, 2007 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

So why are we concerned about minor flaws that still result in homeruns? The focus should be on the at-bats (I can recall at least 10) where Travis got a belt high fastball on the inner half of the plate and fouled it back. And to find out whether something went wrong mechanically in those at-bats (or on that pitch to be more precise) you have to look at that at-bat (that pitch specifically) and compare it to an at-bat where he hit the same pitch in the same location hard.

by notsince48 on Jun 8, 2007 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

So why are we concerned about minor flaws that still result in homeruns?

Because all good coaches and scouts focus on the method and not the result. Ask any coach or scout, you'll get the same answer. An astute scout can be dismissive of a home run if he thinks the hitter just got lucky or hit a mistake pitch. Likewise, he can be impressed by a tough out on a great pitch if the hitter showed a great eye, approach and swing all the way through the at bat.

The minor flaw results in fewer home runs and more ground balls. He didn't used to hit all home runs and he isn't hitting all ground balls now.

by Jay on Jun 8, 2007 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

I'm not saying you don't focus on the method. I'm saying you look at different pictures to identify the flaw. The flaw in these pictures is so minute we cannot even identify it (probably because there is no flaw). We're basically guessing. That's what I meant when I said we shouldn't be concerned with a "flaw" that leads to a homerun. I agree that the pitch, location, and count should all be the same. But to identify a flaw that results in ground balls (or pop outs or whatever), you have to look at pictures of swings that result in ground balls (or pop outs or whatever). In fact, you should probably look at a week's worth of swings on fastballs when the batter is not hitting well and then compare them to his "good swing". This way, you can identify the flaw or deviation that the batter is repeating. But looking at two good swings that are virtually identical tells you nothing about why the hitter is struggling during a given period. A hitter's mechanics can literally break down in the course of a week. When it happens, you have to look at that week's swings to figure out what is wrong.

by notsince48 on Jun 8, 2007 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

I think what you may have missed here is that the author, Jeff Albert, is not the general "you," as in you or me or one of our fellow smart boys and girls watching baseball. He's an up-and-coming "swing doctor" who has already worked with pro ballplayers, minor leaguers and college guys, to improve their swings.

As in, he does this professionally. You and I are guessing. He's not, or at least, he's guessing with a lot more knowledge and experience.

by Jay on Jun 9, 2007 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

I'm not questioning his expertise, I question the value of the comparision he is relying on. After looking at the two swings, he concludes that "there does not appear to be anything that is significantly different" between the swings and that the increase in ground balls might result from less tilt in his spine angle. The implication is that Hafner's struggles this year are not the result of mechanical flaws.

My point is that the second clip is not necessarily representative of the swing Hafner has been using when he has struggled this year. In fact, in light of the result and the fact that it is from mid-April (when Hafner was raking), the second clip is more indicative of Hafner's proper mechanics. Comparing these two clips, then, doesn't tell you much about what has gone wrong in May. It only tells you what Hafner's proper mechanics look like.

Therefore, while I fully recognize Jeff's ability to identify a flaw, the second clip probably isn't reflecting the flaw (if any) that occurs when Hafner has struggled this year. That is why I characterized Jeff's analysis as a guess. To determine whether Hafner's struggles are caused by a certain flaw, you would have to compare the first clip with video taken during a week that he struggled. Then you can identify the deviation or flaw that Hafner is repeating. Frankly, I think Jeff acknowledges this when he says the spine tilt is just "something I would keep an eye on if I was monitoring Hafner's swing on a daily basis."

by notsince48 on Jun 10, 2007 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

While I would say they are better then average hitters he currently is not in a good mechanical swing path to the baseball. Granted this is one swing verse another but if this is a consistent problem you will see his numbers decline. With baseball one of the hardest things to do is maintain a consistent mechanical approach to the baseball. I am sure as good of a hitter that Haftner is, he realizes what he is doing wrong and is working to correct this mechanical flaw. Please reference my post below to understand what Haftner is doing incorrectly. It is not easy to spot and it is not easy to fix as bad habits are hard to break.

This is also the same problem that Marte is having when he is hitting. The only difference is that Haftner has more muscle memory of his good swing and therefore is not always pulling off. Marte has poor muscle memory and it will be much harder for him to correct his mechanical flaw.

Champion of the Kelly Shoppach for Catcher campaign.

by E5 on Jun 8, 2007 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

True about result. But what about the 'bad' swing. This means he did something to alter his good swing, which is the swing that is repeated the most and is the critical piece of whether something has changed or not with the swing. So is the difference that he isn't using the 'good' swing as much? Anybody?

And I guess that's the point of Jeff's analysis. It's not something mechanical in his 'good' swing that has changed, more than likely.

by JK in CBus on Jun 8, 2007 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

I agree with this completely. I didn't think we were trying to figure out if his good swing has holes. I thought we were trying to figure out if he was failling to repeat his good swing on a consistent basis.

by notsince48 on Jun 8, 2007 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

Also, for whatever it's worth, Pronk's K/BB numbers actually improved from April to May. But I will ask Jeff if he remembers what game the 2007 shot is from.

by Jay on Jun 8, 2007 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

I feel he got much more conservative in his approach in May. I remember at least a half dozen at-bats when it looked like Travis was just feeling for the ball, especially with two strikes.

by notsince48 on Jun 8, 2007 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

Looks like the Yankees game on April 17th.

by FranklinScott on Jun 9, 2007 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

We really don't have to worry about Pronk too much unless they have to sync groundballs to the 2B as an example swing.

by Thommy on Jun 8, 2007 1:19 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

Technically very impressive - however, it doesn't address what I think is Pronk's problem. It's not the low inside pitch he's missing it's the low and away pitch that he can't hit.

Since the opposition has been shifting their infield to the right side it would make sense that they'd pitch inside. But they're not - they're pitching him away and occasionally busting one in tight. I'm sure it's something with his mechanics, but I can't see it. It's starting to look like a fatal flaw.

Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jun 8, 2007 2:41 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

I have seen him miss a number of breaking pitches low and in

by Roger Dorn on Jun 8, 2007 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

If you look very closely you will see that Haftner's outside shoulder is at a higher position therefore driving his bat head up slightly more. This will cause him to hit below the baseball. He is not maintaining level shoulders as he swings. This is often call pulling off the baseball. This high outside shoulder is being caused by him not driving his hands forward through the baseball. He is staring his back shoulder at a higher position and as the saying goes what goes up must come down. His swing is not as level as it should be. He is not keeping his hands as close to his body as he should. He is tending to have a linear path to the baseball as opposed to having a circular path. I am sure he will correct this slight mechanical flaw as the season goes on. However with that said if he does not, expect his batting average and slugging percentages to take a 10% drop.

Champion of the Kelly Shoppach for Catcher campaign.

by E5 on Jun 8, 2007 3:58 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

This will cause him to hit below the baseball.

Which would result in a fly ball - right? But he's not hitting more fly balls - I didn't look this up - but more weak grounders. I buy all of this analysis except it doesn't seem to jibe with what I'm seeing. Pronk hitting low and away pitches weakly on the ground. And pitches he was crushing last year - belt high inside fastballs - he's hitting for outs. What's up with that?

Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jun 8, 2007 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

I alway say this wrong by mistake, what I meant to say is that he hits the top part of the baseball therefore his bat is over the ball leading to ground outs.

Champion of the Kelly Shoppach for Catcher campaign.

by E5 on Jun 10, 2007 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

Hopefully Pronk can start hitting taters at a prodigous rate again. Not just for the tribe, but because I am only 1 homer from first place in brderby.com, and none of my close competitors have Hafner (I do). My kids are really hoping for a Wii, because they know I am not going to buy them one.

by oxforddave on Jun 8, 2007 4:02 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Guest Analysis :: Pronk Swings

Very nice, thanks!

Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 8, 2007 5:14 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks for the video and the analysis - greatly

appreciated.

One question: Just to make sure I understand what Jeff means when he says "spine angle," do you mean that Hafner's body was tilted slightly more toward the catcher last year compared to this year when he made contact through the hitting zone? I just want to make sure I understand exactly what is meant by "spine angle." I'd greatly appreciate any info. - thanks!

And again, thanks for the video and analysis - it's quite helpful! Keep up the great work!

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Jun 8, 2007 7:04 PM EDT reply actions

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