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The Summer Shopping Season, Part III

This time, let's look at the outfielders that are probably available:

Corey Patterson, Baltimore
Jermaine Dye, Chicago
Reggie Sanders, Kansas City
Shannon Stewart, Oakland
Kenny Lofton, Texas
Adam Dunn, Cincinnati

That's pretty much it, a very thin and, for the most part, unsatisfying cadre of outfielders. Because the Indians are essentially looking for a left fielder, let's concentrate on offense. Here are the 6 ranked by Runs Created:

(1) Dunn - 66
(2) Stewart - 55
(3) Lofton - 51
(4) Patterson - 36
(5) Dye - 31
(6) Sanders - 13

Sanders has spent much of the season on the Disabled List.

We can very quickly remove Patterson from this list, as he is hitting a svelte .233/.277/.338 this season against right-handed pitching. The Indians, in a perfect world, would like an outfielder to platoon with Jason Michaels, so a left-handed outfield with a reverse platoon split is the last thing they'll be looking for.

Since that leaves just five, some quick thoughts on each:

Adam Dunn. By far the best outfielder, but the most expensive to obtain. Dunn has a "poison pill" clause in his contract that nulls his 2008 if option if traded before the end of the 2007 season. Which, from any acquiring teams' point of view, makes Dunn a very expensive rental.  

Shannon Stewart. Having a good season with Oakland, he's a left fielder by trade, though has he regressed defensively. He'd be an improvement over Trot Nixon, but then again, every outfielder on this list is. Should be at most a fallback option.  

Kenny Lofton. As mentioned many times before here and other places, Lofton seems the best fit: a left-handed hitter that can still steal a base and would improve the outfield defense. This is one of the few instances where bringing back a Glory Days player actually makes sense.  

Jermaine Dye. Wouldn't be a bad buy-low deal, and he's hitting well recently (.302/.373/.679 since the All-Star Break), but there's probably a reluctance from both sides to trade within the division. If Mark Teixeira stays in Texas, Dye seems to me the best player available on the trade market.

Reggie Sanders. The same intra-divisional principles that applied to Dye apply to Sanders, although that hasn't stopped supposed negotiations for the services of Octavio Dotel. Sanders would probably come relatively cheap.

My priorities would be Lofton or Dye, then Dunn if he's not too expensive, and finally Sanders or Stewart.  

0 recs  |  Comment 33 comments

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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
No Way we don't need more K's and low clutchness
Not my style
Good idea but for what price
No
Perfect
It would cost an arm and a leg.
Champion of the Kelly Shoppach for Catcher and Franklin Gutiérrez for Right Fielder campaigns.

by E5 on Jul 26, 2007 11:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
Dunn has a .932 OPS, Dye has a .736 OPS. Are you crazy? Tell me how Dye is a better producer than Dunn...go ahead and tell me.

Now I agree with the buying low on Dye, vs. overpaying for Dunn. But Dunn is the best guy (aka will improve the offense the most) available regardless of the Ks.

by hans on Jul 27, 2007 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
Dunn's a "clutch" hitter that's why.
(Not to bring up that whole clutch argument everyone loves, but it doesn't exist)
"We've talked about it so many times," Wedge said, "but this is a special group."

by CarnegieAndOntario on Jul 27, 2007 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
We don't know that clutch doesn't exist.  All we know is that the data in baseball is too noisy to quantify it, i.e., to identify it with any real confidence.

Dunn did have this incredible streak where he went almost two years without a sac fly.  That got him a lot of notoriety, but the "criticism" had a rather hilarious flaw -- nearly half of Dunn's flyballs over that period went for home runs.

So basically, the Clutch Nazis went out and concocted this stat because Dunn was hitting home runs rather than sac flys.

by Jay on Jul 27, 2007 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
My comments are related to the first list not the bottom one if that clarifies anything for you.
Champion of the Kelly Shoppach for Catcher and Franklin Gutiérrez for Right Fielder campaigns.

by E5 on Jul 27, 2007 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
Even though Dunn strikes out a lot he gets on base a lot. Thats what we need.

by world dictator on Jul 27, 2007 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
its the strikeouts that are killing us and if we get another player in that lineup whos on pace to K over a hundred times a season, im gonna hangmyself from the upperdeck by my balls....we need players who dont strike out!!! low K rates is what we need from our position players, because at least that means were getting the moved up a base (like on a ground out)...OBP is not the ansewer here, its moving them over!!! get a freakin player who will move others over, because do to all thes K's were stranding way to many runners, what how was the tribe doing in the first 2 games vs Boston? wasnt it something like 1-22 with RISP?
c'mon now dawg....

by GermanysTribeFan on Jul 27, 2007 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
But we'd strand less runners with a high-OBP high-K hitter than we would with, say, David Eckstein.

by nickjs21 on Jul 27, 2007 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
at least he can bunt...
c'mon now dawg....

by GermanysTribeFan on Jul 27, 2007 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
I hope this is sarcasm, I hope this is sarcasm ...

by nickjs21 on Jul 27, 2007 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
You seem to like the grossout exaggerated commentary.  You can stop, you're not impressing anyone.

by Jay on Jul 27, 2007 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
I realize the pickins are slim, that we need help in the outfield, and that he may be the best we can do, but I just can't help but have this visceral reaction:  Lofton?  Really?  40 years old, now on his tenth major league team, a guy I couldn't wait to see gone in 2001 because of both poor production and attitude... that's the missing piece?

by maledicta on Jul 27, 2007 1:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
So explain to me what you don't like about this line vs. RHP:
AVG.   OBP.  SLG.  OPS.
.325  .401  .486  .887

Explain to me how this isn't better than Trot Nixon's line vs. RHP:
AVG.  OBP.  SLG.  OPS.
.249  .347  .344  .691

by hans on Jul 27, 2007 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
Whoa, there.  Being better than Trot Nixon does not make one a good player, nor does it make him worth trading for at this point.  Lofton's hit for average the past three years, and he still gets some steals, but if we're serious about making a move that will take us up that one extra level, I don't see how that's it.  And besides which, it's Lofton.  I said at the top my reaction was visceral, and any other player with those same stats probably doesn't make my stomach churn the way the thought of bringing Lofton back does.

by maledicta on Jul 27, 2007 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No offense, but why do you have that reaction
against Lofton?  Just curious.

Hello maledicta,

Personally, I'd have more of that reaction against Thome or Ramirez, for obvious reasons, than I would Lofton.

As for being better than Nixon, he's significantly better than Nixon in almost every category except perhaps clubhouse leadership and grit, :-).  

Seriously though, he might be the best return on our payment - he'd cost cheaper than Dunn, and arguably, provide more of a spark to our offense than a guy who hits HRs, draws some walks, and strikes out a ton.  Plus, Lofton is a considerably better defender than Dunn.

Really, I don't see why bringing back Lofton would be that bad.  In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if it put a few more butts in the seats because it would reconnect fans to those mid-90s teams.

Personally, I'd love to see them get Lofton, but not for Adam Miller - I wouldn't trade Miller for Teixeira (we already have a solid 1B who is younger and under our control for a lot longer than Teixeira, plus Teixeira would cost too much in prospects for him in my opinion,) let alone for Lofton, no offense.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Jul 27, 2007 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: No offense, but why do you have that reaction
He overstayed his welcome the last time he was here.  I remember counting down the games in 2001 until we were able to get rid of him, and it wasn't just because he didn't produce - he carried himself like an asshole on and off the field.  The dude has a DHL commercial dedicated to how often he switches teams, for chrissakes.  I'm not one to put much stock in the idea of clubhouse chemistry, but there is something to be said for avoiding known bad apples.  I'm just not sure what the upside is to an older player with a bad attitude who has no power numbers to speak of, when we already have several players with comporable speed.

Is defense really that glaring of a concern for us?  Right now we're bleeding in the back of the starting rotation and in our offense - and I'm much more worried about the pitching in the long run than I am the hitting.  I wouldn't do the deal for Lofton primarily because I think we have bigger needs, my personal dislike of him notwithstanding.  I agree that Teixiera isn't worth what the Rangers will be asking.

by maledicta on Jul 27, 2007 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: No offense, but why do you have that reaction
I think we should allow for the possibility, ten teams later, that Lofton has adopted a different attitude as a veteran player.  He is credited with being a good teammate who works hard on his conditioning.  And he's no longer underproducing on a large-ish contract, which generally was injury-related anyway.

Give the old gripes a rest on this guy.  Whether we get him or not, see him for what he is today.

by Jay on Jul 27, 2007 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree that Lofton seems to have changed!
If I recall correctly, he wouldn't have considered moving out of CF 6 years ago, but he is now, saying that Grady is the CF, he's the LF, and he has no problems with it.

From what I recall, Lofton was no Albert Belle (and I don't just mean with the bat; I mean with the attitude,) so this idea that Lofton was "that bad" seems overblown to me, no offense.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Jul 27, 2007 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: No offense, but why do you have that reaction
What's possible is setting a pretty low bar, so yeah, sure.  What we know is that he was a bad guy when he left, and he's bounced all over the league since.  That doesn't happen by accident.

But regardless of character, the more important thing is that we have other needs.  I was pleasantly surprised to see how little we had to give up for him, but how many games will a corner outfielder, who doesn't hit for power, who won't even play every day, really win for you down the stretch?  Conversely, how many games will we lose because of relievers other than Borowski, Betancourt, and Perez?

by maledicta on Jul 27, 2007 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: No offense, but why do you have that reaction
How many post season games can he help you win?
Champion of the Kelly Shoppach for Catcher and Franklin Gutiérrez for Right Fielder campaigns. LGT resident kineisologist

by E5 on Jul 27, 2007 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: No offense, but why do you have that reaction
Well, it's not an either-or situation; acquiring Lofton does not preclude Shapiro from trading for an additional relief pitcher also (unless he was going to trade Max Ramirez to obtain said relief pitcher).

by Jackdaw on Jul 27, 2007 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: No offense, but why do you have that reaction
Lofton has played in a pennant race every year of his career.  His original team stayed in the race through August or later for all but 2003, 2004 and 2007.  In those three seasons, he's been traded to a contender.

So he's bounced around the league in part because he's remained so useful.  At the same time, at every stop since 2001, at the end of the year, he's been replaced by younger and/or cheaper talent:  Milton Bradley, Marquis Grissom, Corey Patterson, Johnny Damon, Aaron Rowand, Juan Pierre.

So I don't think character has anything to do with it, except that he doesn't have the infectious personality that gets deals on its own, like Erstad or Julio Franco.  He has a solid skill-set but not a compelling one.

Your "corner outfielder who doesn't hit for power" lacks context.  Lofton is an inexpensive upgrade for our specific situation, in that it gets one more quality lefty bat in the lineup against righthanded starters, one that comes with an upsdie on defense and baserunning rather than a downside (Nixon).  Ask an opposing manager, or his righty starter, whether they'd rather see this guy in the lineup rather than Francisco, Michaels or Nixon in the same spot.  There's your answer right there.

As noted by others, this move has nothing to do with whether they can also acquire a reliever, so I'm not sure what your point you're trying to make there.

by Jay on Jul 28, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Besides the great points others have made,
Lofton would be in there most of the time since he's a LHH; in fact, Wedge even said that Lofton won't necessarily sit against all LHP - it will depend on how his skills match up against that specific LHP; for someone like Johan Santana, he'll likely sit, but for someone else, like say maybe Mark Buerhle, Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson, or Jorge De La Rosa, he'd probably have a good shot of starting, depending on his career numbers against them.

Therefore, he'll likely play more often than all our OFers except Sizemore, and possibly Gutierrez (though I'm not even sure Gutierrez will get as much playing time as Lofton will - in fact, his ABs could be shared by both Nixon and Michaels, so it wouldn't surprise me if Lofton got more ABs than Gutierrez as well, being that Lofton is a 16-year veteran, while Gutierrez is moreless a rookie or 2nd-year player.)  Main point:  Lofton won't sit on the bench very often.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Jul 30, 2007 3:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
Platoon Micheals and Lofton in LF. Nixon would be the odd man out. We would theoretically get better than .800 OPS out of the position. Sizemore takes care of CF. And Gutz holds the fort down in RF. its a nice improvement.

by hans on Jul 27, 2007 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
Yeah, that's why Lofton would fit so well - it gets the most out of the existing players we do have.

by Ryan on Jul 27, 2007 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
i absolutely do not want dunn. not because i dislike dunn. i think he's a very fine player. but man, i have no desire to get the "is he or isn't he a good player?" argument here as well. :)
Disclaimer: this post doesn't mean what you think it means.

by AngG on Jul 27, 2007 2:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
i should add here i'm not saying this to bash anyone. i'm just saying it's a divisive issue on like every reds forum ever and it gets incredibly tedious.

plz, mr shapiro! consider my sanity!

Disclaimer: this post doesn't mean what you think it means.

by AngG on Jul 27, 2007 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
There shouldn't be any discussion as to whether he's good, only as to how good.

Browsing over his career splits, I'm sure the weak-ish Close & Late numbers get trotted out on the "con" side for this guy.  What strikes me is that he only has 62 plate appearances for that split -- over his whole career!

The numbers are a little low, but not that low, and mostly 62 just seems like a ridiculous with which to make a judgment.  Bill James has implied that you need thousands of plate appearances to get past the noise in clutch data, so I know we can't make anything out of 62.

This concludes the "is Adam Dunn good" debate.

by Jay on Jul 27, 2007 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
Did James not mean late and/or close when he said that? Because even Ortiz only has 50 PA in his career in Late & Close situations. A-Rod has 55, and Manny has 52.

by supermarioelia on Jul 27, 2007 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
Yeah, I'm saying that kind of proves his point.

by Jay on Jul 27, 2007 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
He does hit walk-off grand slams against the Indians.

Clutch.  Put it on the board.

by nickjs21 on Jul 27, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
When I was looking the other night, these are the LH OF bats I saw that could be available:

ANH - N Haynes
BAL - Gibbons
KC - Gload
OAK - Kotsay
TEX - Lofton
TOR - Stairs
CIN - Dunn, Griffey
COL - Sullivan
HOU - O Palmiero
SF - Mark Sweeney, D Roberts
STL - Schumaker
WAS - Church, Langerhans

Note, not all of those options are good, they are just LH hitting OF that could be available. If I had my pick, I'd go for Stairs, wouldn't cost much at all. His D sucks, but he can rake. Another veteran guy I like is Palmeiro, lots of playoff experience. Lofton we've already discussed, as well as Griffey/Dunn.

Sullivan was intriguing, and I've always liked Gibbons too, but his numbers are bad this year.

Anyone to bring back Church??

by talonk on Jul 27, 2007 1:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
Is it just me or do I recall Dye having issues with being a huge jerk? Maybe it's because he's on the White Sox and I hate him by association, but I thought I also disliked him for being a jerk.
"We've talked about it so many times," Wedge said, "but this is a special group."

by CarnegieAndOntario on Jul 27, 2007 1:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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