The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
This time, let's look at the outfielders that are probably available:
Corey Patterson, Baltimore
Jermaine Dye, Chicago
Reggie Sanders, Kansas City
Shannon Stewart, Oakland
Kenny Lofton, Texas
Adam Dunn, Cincinnati
That's pretty much it, a very thin and, for the most part, unsatisfying cadre of outfielders. Because the Indians are essentially looking for a left fielder, let's concentrate on offense. Here are the 6 ranked by Runs Created:
(1) Dunn - 66
(2) Stewart - 55
(3) Lofton - 51
(4) Patterson - 36
(5) Dye - 31
(6) Sanders - 13
Sanders has spent much of the season on the Disabled List.
We can very quickly remove Patterson from this list, as he is hitting a svelte .233/.277/.338 this season against right-handed pitching. The Indians, in a perfect world, would like an outfielder to platoon with Jason Michaels, so a left-handed outfield with a reverse platoon split is the last thing they'll be looking for.
Since that leaves just five, some quick thoughts on each:
Adam Dunn. By far the best outfielder, but the most expensive to obtain. Dunn has a "poison pill" clause in his contract that nulls his 2008 if option if traded before the end of the 2007 season. Which, from any acquiring teams' point of view, makes Dunn a very expensive rental.
Shannon Stewart. Having a good season with Oakland, he's a left fielder by trade, though has he regressed defensively. He'd be an improvement over Trot Nixon, but then again, every outfielder on this list is. Should be at most a fallback option.
Kenny Lofton. As mentioned many times before here and other places, Lofton seems the best fit: a left-handed hitter that can still steal a base and would improve the outfield defense. This is one of the few instances where bringing back a Glory Days player actually makes sense.
Jermaine Dye. Wouldn't be a bad buy-low deal, and he's hitting well recently (.302/.373/.679 since the All-Star Break), but there's probably a reluctance from both sides to trade within the division. If Mark Teixeira stays in Texas, Dye seems to me the best player available on the trade market.
Reggie Sanders. The same intra-divisional principles that applied to Dye apply to Sanders, although that hasn't stopped supposed negotiations for the services of Octavio Dotel. Sanders would probably come relatively cheap.
My priorities would be Lofton or Dye, then Dunn if he's not too expensive, and finally Sanders or Stewart.
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33 comments
Comments
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
Not my style
Good idea but for what price
No
Perfect
It would cost an arm and a leg.
by E5 on Jul 26, 2007 11:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
Now I agree with the buying low on Dye, vs. overpaying for Dunn. But Dunn is the best guy (aka will improve the offense the most) available regardless of the Ks.
by hans on Jul 27, 2007 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
(Not to bring up that whole clutch argument everyone loves, but it doesn't exist)
by CarnegieAndOntario on Jul 27, 2007 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
Dunn did have this incredible streak where he went almost two years without a sac fly. That got him a lot of notoriety, but the "criticism" had a rather hilarious flaw -- nearly half of Dunn's flyballs over that period went for home runs.
So basically, the Clutch Nazis went out and concocted this stat because Dunn was hitting home runs rather than sac flys.
by Jay on Jul 27, 2007 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by E5 on Jul 27, 2007 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by world dictator on Jul 27, 2007 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by GermanysTribeFan on Jul 27, 2007 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by nickjs21 on Jul 27, 2007 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by GermanysTribeFan on Jul 27, 2007 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by nickjs21 on Jul 27, 2007 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by Jay on Jul 27, 2007 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by maledicta on Jul 27, 2007 1:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
AVG. OBP. SLG. OPS.
.325 .401 .486 .887
Explain to me how this isn't better than Trot Nixon's line vs. RHP:
AVG. OBP. SLG. OPS.
.249 .347 .344 .691
by hans on Jul 27, 2007 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by maledicta on Jul 27, 2007 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No offense, but why do you have that reaction
Hello maledicta,
Personally, I'd have more of that reaction against Thome or Ramirez, for obvious reasons, than I would Lofton.
As for being better than Nixon, he's significantly better than Nixon in almost every category except perhaps clubhouse leadership and grit, :-).
Seriously though, he might be the best return on our payment - he'd cost cheaper than Dunn, and arguably, provide more of a spark to our offense than a guy who hits HRs, draws some walks, and strikes out a ton. Plus, Lofton is a considerably better defender than Dunn.
Really, I don't see why bringing back Lofton would be that bad. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if it put a few more butts in the seats because it would reconnect fans to those mid-90s teams.
Personally, I'd love to see them get Lofton, but not for Adam Miller - I wouldn't trade Miller for Teixeira (we already have a solid 1B who is younger and under our control for a lot longer than Teixeira, plus Teixeira would cost too much in prospects for him in my opinion,) let alone for Lofton, no offense.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
by indiansfan on Jul 27, 2007 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No offense, but why do you have that reaction
Is defense really that glaring of a concern for us? Right now we're bleeding in the back of the starting rotation and in our offense - and I'm much more worried about the pitching in the long run than I am the hitting. I wouldn't do the deal for Lofton primarily because I think we have bigger needs, my personal dislike of him notwithstanding. I agree that Teixiera isn't worth what the Rangers will be asking.
by maledicta on Jul 27, 2007 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No offense, but why do you have that reaction
Give the old gripes a rest on this guy. Whether we get him or not, see him for what he is today.
by Jay on Jul 27, 2007 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that Lofton seems to have changed!
From what I recall, Lofton was no Albert Belle (and I don't just mean with the bat; I mean with the attitude,) so this idea that Lofton was "that bad" seems overblown to me, no offense.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
by indiansfan on Jul 27, 2007 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No offense, but why do you have that reaction
But regardless of character, the more important thing is that we have other needs. I was pleasantly surprised to see how little we had to give up for him, but how many games will a corner outfielder, who doesn't hit for power, who won't even play every day, really win for you down the stretch? Conversely, how many games will we lose because of relievers other than Borowski, Betancourt, and Perez?
by maledicta on Jul 27, 2007 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No offense, but why do you have that reaction
by E5 on Jul 27, 2007 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No offense, but why do you have that reaction
by Jackdaw on Jul 27, 2007 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No offense, but why do you have that reaction
So he's bounced around the league in part because he's remained so useful. At the same time, at every stop since 2001, at the end of the year, he's been replaced by younger and/or cheaper talent: Milton Bradley, Marquis Grissom, Corey Patterson, Johnny Damon, Aaron Rowand, Juan Pierre.
So I don't think character has anything to do with it, except that he doesn't have the infectious personality that gets deals on its own, like Erstad or Julio Franco. He has a solid skill-set but not a compelling one.
Your "corner outfielder who doesn't hit for power" lacks context. Lofton is an inexpensive upgrade for our specific situation, in that it gets one more quality lefty bat in the lineup against righthanded starters, one that comes with an upsdie on defense and baserunning rather than a downside (Nixon). Ask an opposing manager, or his righty starter, whether they'd rather see this guy in the lineup rather than Francisco, Michaels or Nixon in the same spot. There's your answer right there.
As noted by others, this move has nothing to do with whether they can also acquire a reliever, so I'm not sure what your point you're trying to make there.
by Jay on Jul 28, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Besides the great points others have made,
Therefore, he'll likely play more often than all our OFers except Sizemore, and possibly Gutierrez (though I'm not even sure Gutierrez will get as much playing time as Lofton will - in fact, his ABs could be shared by both Nixon and Michaels, so it wouldn't surprise me if Lofton got more ABs than Gutierrez as well, being that Lofton is a 16-year veteran, while Gutierrez is moreless a rookie or 2nd-year player.) Main point: Lofton won't sit on the bench very often.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
by indiansfan on Jul 30, 2007 3:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by hans on Jul 27, 2007 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by Ryan on Jul 27, 2007 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by AngG on Jul 27, 2007 2:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
plz, mr shapiro! consider my sanity!
by AngG on Jul 27, 2007 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
Browsing over his career splits, I'm sure the weak-ish Close & Late numbers get trotted out on the "con" side for this guy. What strikes me is that he only has 62 plate appearances for that split -- over his whole career!
The numbers are a little low, but not that low, and mostly 62 just seems like a ridiculous with which to make a judgment. Bill James has implied that you need thousands of plate appearances to get past the noise in clutch data, so I know we can't make anything out of 62.
This concludes the "is Adam Dunn good" debate.
by Jay on Jul 27, 2007 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by supermarioelia on Jul 27, 2007 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by Jay on Jul 27, 2007 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
Clutch. Put it on the board.
by nickjs21 on Jul 27, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
ANH - N Haynes
BAL - Gibbons
KC - Gload
OAK - Kotsay
TEX - Lofton
TOR - Stairs
CIN - Dunn, Griffey
COL - Sullivan
HOU - O Palmiero
SF - Mark Sweeney, D Roberts
STL - Schumaker
WAS - Church, Langerhans
Note, not all of those options are good, they are just LH hitting OF that could be available. If I had my pick, I'd go for Stairs, wouldn't cost much at all. His D sucks, but he can rake. Another veteran guy I like is Palmeiro, lots of playoff experience. Lofton we've already discussed, as well as Griffey/Dunn.
Sullivan was intriguing, and I've always liked Gibbons too, but his numbers are bad this year.
Anyone to bring back Church??
by talonk on Jul 27, 2007 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part III
by CarnegieAndOntario on Jul 27, 2007 1:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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