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The Summer Shopping Season, Part I

It's July, which means one thing for baseball teams: lots and lots of trade talk. Whether anything gets done is one matter, but we can try to guess who the Indians are talking to and who they are trying to obtain.

(1) Should the Indians be looking to buy?

Absolutely. The Indians are currently 52-35, and will be in the worst case scenario one game out of first place at the All-Star Break. This is a team that is certainly good enough to make the playoffs, and as we saw last postseason, any playoff team is a World Series contender.

(2) Will the Indians need to buy in order to make the playoffs?

This question comes more into play later on when you decide who you can part with, but for now, let's assume that improving the team certainly couldn't hurt. Even if the Indians were competing against the 1999 AL Central, they still should be looking for ways of getting better.

(3) What areas/positions should the Indians try to improve?

In other words, what areas would be the easiest to upgrade? First, let's review what the starting lineup did in the first half:

C: Victor Martinez - 302 AB, .325/.384/.546, 67 RC (1st)
     Kelly Shoppach - 83 AB, .349/.409/.602, 20 RC (1st)

No problems here.

1B: Ryan Garko - 238 AB, .294/.358/.466, 35 RC (11th)

The rate stats are good, so again, no problem.

2B: Josh Barfield - 304 AB, .257/.282/.339, 35 RC (10th)

Barfield's bat is a major concern, especially his alarming lack of both power and walks. If the Indians do make an upgrade here, it will be a complimentary player, not an everyday starter.

SS: Jhonny Peralta - 312 AB, .276/.348/.465, 54 RC (4th)

No problem.

3B Casey Blake - 321 AB, .277/.362/.474, 40 RC (5th)

Surprisingly good on defense, so no need for an upgrade.

CF Grady Sizemore - 338 AB, .281/.395/.464, 71 RC (2nd)

Next.

LF Jason Michaels - 159 AB, .289/.350/.459, 29 RC (9th)
      David Dellucci - 175 AB, .234/.301/.389, 18 RC (15th)

      Ben Francisco - 24 AB, .417/.440/.917, 6 RC
      Shin-Soo Choo - 17 AB, .294/.350/.294, 3 RC

Both Dellucci and Choo are sidelined with fairly serious injuries, Michaels' numbers reflect platooning, and Francisco has just 24 MLB at-bats. So the position is at best unsettled. Definitely a candidate for an upgrade.

RF Trot Nixon - 221 AB, .240/.335/.326, 25 RC (14th)
   Franklin Gutierrez - 66 AB, .288/.338/.485, 9 RC

Nixon just isn't an everyday starting outfielder anymore. That leaves Gutierrez, who's had trouble against right-handed pitching in his short MLB career. A left-handed right fielder would seem to be a good fit.

DH Travis Hafner - 293 AB, .259/.396/.451, 48 RC (3rd)

Pronk's having one of his worst seasons, and he's still one of the best DHs in the league. No upgrade needed.

IF Mike Rouse - 56 AB, .125/.206/.143, 1 RC

He's been good defensively, but a supermassive black hole at the plate. An upgrade would be nice.

Defensive Concerns?

Ryan Garko still has difficulty making some routine plays at first base, and Trot Nixon has little range in right.

Injury Concerns?

David Dellucci probably won't be back until August.

Now let's look at the pitchers:

SP CC Sabathia - 133.1 IP, 3.58 ERA, 68 PRC
      Fausto Carmona - 102.1 IP, 3.78 ERA, 46 PRC
      Paul Byrd - 93.2 IP, 4.71 ERA, 34 PRC
      Cliff Lee - 75.2 IP, 5.23 ERA, 25 PRC
      Jake Westbrook - 47.1 IP, 6.27 ERA, 13 PRC
      Jeremy Sowers - 62.1 IP, 6.97 ERA, 13 PRC

Everyone's finally healthy, and while Westbrook and Lee need to pitch better, a starting pitcher should be a low priority.

RP Joe Borowski - 32.2 IP, 5.51 ERA, 1.789 WXRL
      Rafael Betancourt - 37.2 IP, 1.19 ERA, 3.489 WXRL
      Rafael Perez - 23.2 IP, 1.90 ERA, 0.726 WXRL
      Aaron Fultz - 21.0 IP, 1.71 ERA, 0.426 WXRL
      Tom Mastny - 35.0 IP, 4.63 ERA, 0.372 WXRL
      Fernando Cabrera - 32.1 IP, 4.73 ERA, 0.160 WXRL
      Jason Stanford - 21.0 IP, 4.71 ERA, -0.018 WXRL

These are the current guys in the bullpen, excepting Edward Mujica, who will go down after the All-Star Break. The top four on the list have been productive, but the last three spots could be upgraded.

Injury Concerns? Aaron Fultz is currently on the DL, but should return next weekend.

So by my estimation, the Indians should be looking for a left-handed outfielder, at least one reliever, and possibly an infielder. Next, I'll try to come up with some realistic targets.

0 recs | Comment 79 comments

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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
What's the source on the player rankings you used?

by Pronk33 on Jul 8, 2007 1:41 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
RC = runs created, and you can find that at The Hardball Times.  Here are the C rankings, for example.

Along with Fultz, we can expect Matt Miller back soon too, right?

by mkwng on Jul 8, 2007 9:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I guess so - he's back pitching with Buffalo, and pitching quite well. You might as well bring him up here while he's healthy.

by Ryan on Jul 8, 2007 6:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
In looking for a left-hand hitting corner OF'er, I'd propose concentrating on a guy who hits well in Fenway Park.  Not everyone does.

by MTF on Jul 8, 2007 9:19 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I'm not worried about Barfield.  I think his hitting will steadily improve through the year.  RF is a real problem, Choo and Dellucci are done until at least September - by then it might be too late.  Francisco could be the answer - we're gonna hafta be lucky here with Ben because I don't see us picking up an impact OF with our payroll limitations.  So I'm pretty sure we're gonna stand pat with what we've got and hope the kids come through.

Relief pitching's another matter.  It's highly unlikely that both Mastny and Cabrera will revert to their "good" self's anytime soon.  At least one veteran is needed here - somebody who's been through a pennant race and knows how to pitch.  You know - somebody who can perform in the clutch.  I'll await for your list of candidates but there's only one guy out their who I think we've got a shot at and am certain will make an impact - Octavio Dotel.  Him I can get excited about.

Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jul 8, 2007 9:24 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Dotel's not that crazy of an idea, considering our medical staff and the Royals' willingness to sell.  

I'll mention David Aardsma's name for the last time here as my buy-low candidate.

by nickjs21 on Jul 8, 2007 9:35 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I like him too, but he's iffy - there's a reason he got sent down.  I see him as more of a long term project and not an immeadiate impact guy.
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jul 8, 2007 9:41 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I'm not sure I follow on the "payroll limitations". I'd figure if we can't pick up an impact corner OF it will be because of high demand-short supply and Shapiro not wanting to be on the wrong side of a trade. Now granted I don't see them picking up a guys with 5 years left on a contract or something crazy like that, but those guys aren't really out their right now anyways.

by hans on Jul 8, 2007 12:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I'm thinking about a guy like Griffey - real impact player - probably available for the right prospects - but it's almost a $30M committment over the remainder of the season plus next year.  The players we've got - the money we don't.
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jul 8, 2007 12:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Its actually not that much....His contract has a large deferment. At least according to Cot's

by hans on Jul 8, 2007 12:38 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I'm a little confused, but at most it looks like 12.5 mill per year....

by hans on Jul 8, 2007 12:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
This from your source:

9 years/$116.5M (2000-08), plus $16.5M 2009 club option

Forget all of the hocus-pocus regarding deferred money, you're still responsible for the $116.m plus the vigorish so it's $116.5M/9 or damn near $20M a year. Pro-rate this year's salary ~$10M and, viola, $30M.

Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jul 8, 2007 12:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
No.  He's owed $22 million.  No competent businessman would count the interest as part of the capital.  Deferring at a low interest rate reduces the cost rather than increasing it -- it just doesn't reduce it by much.  The Indians obviously have access to cash or credit at the best possible rate.

Also, cash flow does have inherent value.  The fact that $9.5 million is deferred 15-plus years is most definitely another plus.  It most definitely matters that Griffey only needs to be paid $3 million in 2007 (remaining), $6 million in 2008, and $4 million in 2009 (buyout).

Salary will not stop the Indians from acquiring Griffey.  The cost in talent might, and competitive bidding might, but payroll will not.

by Jay on Jul 8, 2007 1:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I was hoping no one would comment on this before I could correct it.  You're right the time value of the money here, assuming we don't go into a deflationary cycle, is about a wash.  Where I screwed up is I thought it was $116M in immeadiately payable salary plus $57M differed not with $57M deferred.  My bad.  So yeah it's ~$22M committment, although they might have back loaded the $116M so it's a little less in the first years and more in the end, but it still wouldn't be $30m for a year and a half.  Sorry.
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jul 8, 2007 2:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I'm actually relieved.  Anybody can mis-read or mis-remember something, but I was scratching my head thinking, "Is it really possible that Chuck doesn't understand the whole time-value-of-money thing?"  That would have been mind-blowing to me.

by Jay on Jul 8, 2007 2:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I just did some rough math on this.  It looks like the payment schedule would be:

  1.  $3 million
  2.  $6 million
  3.  $4 million (assuming we don't pick up his option)

  4.  $4 million
  5.  $7 million
  6.  $7 million

All numbers approximate but pretty close.  What will $7 million mean in a 2023 payroll?  It's probably pointless to speculate, but just for fun ...

In 2006, $7 million was the salary of the 112th best-paid player.  (A seven-way tie, actually, including Byrd and Sabathia, for 109-115.)

In 1990, 16 years earlier, $1.17 million was the salary of the 112-114th best-paid player.

In 2006, the median payroll was $72 million.  So that $1.17 million is about 1.6% of median team payroll, 16 years later.  It's about 40% of the average major league salary, which was $2.87 million.

So if we see similar salary inflation over the next 16 years, the impact of Griffey's deferred payments will be less than than three years of Aaron Fultz, or Jason Michaels.

by Jay on Jul 8, 2007 2:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I don't think we have any payroll limitations for this year.

Remember we have the extra $5M slated for Foulke, and even with that I think we still had $2-3M available since Nixon/Dellucci/releivers all came cheaper than expected.

Taking on payoll would not be the issue at this point, it would be how much of the minor league talent that Shapiro stockpiles that he'd be willing to give up.

by talonk on Jul 9, 2007 6:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
OK, say we have $5-8M to play with.  Can we get our left handed bat and a veteran reliever for that.  It'll be close, since we won't be trading veterans for veterans and off-setting salary.  All things considered, I think we need the RP more than a left handed bat.
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jul 9, 2007 7:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I just don't see how there's any realistic possibility we add an outfielder.  

*Dellucci on the shelf, hopefully back by mid-August (so sort of a semi-acquisition in itself)
*Dellucci with a somewhat difficult contract to move
*Marte still around (and out of options next year)to possibly push Blake back to RF in 08
*Choo and Gutierrez out of options next year (not sure about Francisco)

I understand that Michaels' contract is totally moveable, and we may end up moving one of Choo/Gutz/Francisco anyway for a reliever but that's still a big logjam to sort through.  

by cheech99 on Jul 8, 2007 12:06 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Dunn's contract is quite detrimental to trades.  The attractive team option for 2008 is canceled if he's traded, which makes him significantly more valuable to his current team than to any other -- all other things being equal.

But all other things are not equal, however, as the Reds' not-contending-anytime-soon status makes Dunn basically worthless to them.  Krivsky needs to figure out, however, that Dunn is nothing more than a solid (and not spectacular) two-month rental, and that it's his value to another team that will determine what he can get in a trade.

Until and unless Krivsky figures that out, Dunn will not be traded.  I think he will figure it out, but we'll also need to see if Krivsky has the maturity and integrity to do a deal that benefits one of his old team's rivals.

by Jay on Jul 8, 2007 1:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
If it's just a rental, I think there's space, if Nixon is sent the other way as salary balast.

by Ryan on Jul 8, 2007 6:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
blake's flexibility could mean an OF or 1B acquisition could be in the form of a 3B i suppose

by Brick. on Jul 8, 2007 12:34 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I'm guessing they will most likely add a RP. a Dotel would be great. There seems a little more available in that regard out there as of now.

by hans on Jul 8, 2007 12:34 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
"Long time listener; first time caller."

I really dig the LGT community.

I have thought that the suggestion of trading Cliff Lee and F. Gutierrez for Griffey was a reasonable one ever since it was suggested at this site.  Does anyone agree?  It would definitely be cool if Griffey was an Indian for his 600th HR.

I also agree that we need a RP.  If Dotel is too expensive, what about Dan Wheeler from Houston?  He hasn't been consistent this year but has a good track record and a change of leagues may be the ticket.

by Kenyafan on Jul 8, 2007 4:48 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Not that I'm against the trade or the idea...But who steps into Lee's spot in the rotation?

I was also thinking about a deal including Gutz and maybe another player, for Dunn.

by hans on Jul 8, 2007 5:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I think there's at least some merit to that proposal; not sure how crazy Cincy is about Lee's fly-ball tendencies at Great American Ballpark though, after the Eric Milton experiment.  

And you wonder how much of an impression Gutz left with Cincy with that phenomenal game-saving catch in that Saturday night game.  

Would Cincy be looking to move David Weathers too?  I'd be more inclinded to want Griffey and Weathers.  

Thing is, if we extend Hafner over the ASB, I'd have to think any Griffey deal would likely be shelved, but perhaps not.

by cheech99 on Jul 8, 2007 5:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I think Lee for Griffey is a terrible, terrible trade.  Griffey is healthy now, but might not be 5 minutes after we trade him.  That's even before we think about the fact that Lee is signed to a very team friendly contract while Junior is owed several Brinks trucks worth of money.  

by woodsmeister on Jul 8, 2007 6:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Welcome.

I think you're undervaluing Lee's contract. It's one of the best deals for a pitcher in baseball, even if Lee is just a 4/5. He's incredibly cheap clear through to 2010 when inflation is considered.

Lee right now has a weirdly alluring quality: he actually will win games for you, almost all by himself. Other days he will be absolutely terrible, but he's not a consistently mediocre pitcher right now. He's a pitcher who's great one day and terrible the next.

As someone else pointed out, the Reds would be insane to put Lee in GAB. Especially after the Joe Mays, Eric Milton disasters.

by afh4 on Jul 9, 2007 11:22 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Here's one more wild-assed trade idea: how about we reacquire Kenny Lofton?  Probably take a prospect (Trevor Crowe anyone?).  He's still playing D and looks like his stroke is still strong.
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jul 8, 2007 6:38 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
That's a fine idea, but would the Dodger's part with him?  Don't you think they'll ask for Marte and a pitcher?

by homelytourist on Jul 8, 2007 7:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Kenny's with the Rangers now.  My guess is they're gonna have a fire sale soon.
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jul 8, 2007 8:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Oof, it's so hard to keep track of Kenny.  He's playing for a new team every 5 minutes.
Crowe for Kenny.   Ummm, yes.  Crowe's got a little hitting streak going, right?

by homelytourist on Jul 8, 2007 8:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
You are crazy for wanting to trade Crowe for Kenny.

A - we have Grady in center
B - we have a lead off hitter
C - we need power not speed
D - we need a corner OF
E - Lofton has no arm to play a corner OF position
F - Crowe is one of our top prospects

I think those are enough reasons...

by Tribe Alive on Jul 9, 2007 10:49 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
A- Why can't Kenny play LF and move JMike to RF?
B- Why can't Kenny bat 6-8, he doesn't hafta replace Grady, he's replacing Trot.
C - With Trot we've got neither
D - See A
E - He's got enough arm to play center right? Why not LF?
F - Change is to was and you're right.  But Crowe is almost indistinguishable for Gutz, Francisco et al.  If not Crowe let the Rangers choose from one of our other 5-7 OF prospects.

Nope - not enough reasons to drop the idea.

Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jul 9, 2007 11:04 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Am I alone in thinking this would be an swful trade?!?!?!  Lofton in LF and Michaels in RF!!!

WORST OUTFIELD EVER!  Can't Gutz or Francisco provide the speed and average of Lofton?  And, arent they a hell of a lot better fielders at those positions (considering Lofton never even played there).

WOW...that would be no upgrade and it would mean we get rid of some young talent.

I would rather Sosa for what we need as a team...

by Tribe Alive on Jul 9, 2007 1:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I don't think Lofton is a completely terrible idea.  He's at .301/.386/.431 on the season so far.  Last year he was .301/.360/.403, the year before he was .335/.392/.420.  Assuming he can play a decent LF (which I think, given his speed, is a decent assumption), acquiring him would at least provide a more certain commodity than either Gutz or Francisco right now.

by APV on Jul 9, 2007 1:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
To stretch this what if just a bit further . . . where would Lofton bat in the order?

Somewhere #6-8?  Or, what about moving Kenny into the #2 hole and dropping Blake down to #7?

Just a thought . . . but fun to speculate, nonetheless.

by mplswahoo on Jul 9, 2007 1:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I guess against LHPs I'd want to see Blake #2 and against RHPs Lofton #2.  Otherwise, I'd want Lofton down in the #8 slot, ahead of Barfield.

by APV on Jul 9, 2007 2:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Are we watching the same outfield now?  Rocky Colavito - at age 70 - is an improvement over Trot.  That fused cervical vertebrae must be killin' him, cuz he sure can't play in the field now.
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jul 9, 2007 1:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Who is Rocky's agent?  Isn't it Boras?  He'd want way too much.  Pass.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jul 9, 2007 4:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Benny the Bull Vombatz represents the Rock.  If he makes you and offer, don't refuse.
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jul 9, 2007 5:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Gutz and Francisco have zoomed into the "wildly overrated" category about as fast as I can imagine, it appears.

by afh4 on Jul 9, 2007 2:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
It's hard not to love Ben when he's hitting damn near .500 and hittin GW HR's.  Keep that up and we'll build a shrine to him on the corner of 9th and Euclid.
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jul 9, 2007 2:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
T.A., we're talking about acquiring Lofton to use as a platoon player.  We have three righty bats for the corners and could use a lefty -- a lefty who isn't Nixon.

I think Lofton and Michaels basically platooned in CF for the 2005 Phillies.  And it worked pretty damned well from what I recall.  (Go ahead, look it up and embarass me.)

by Jay on Jul 9, 2007 10:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
It worked very well. Plus can you imagine having a kenny lofton bobble head night. the jake would be packed.

by hans on Jul 9, 2007 11:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
It's clear that Lofton doesn't fulfill your perfect image of a slugging corner-OF.  But that image in your mind is kind of beside the point.  The real question is, is Lofton the best upgrade available (assuming he's an upgrade)?

My sense is that we're looking for a left-handed complement to Gutierrez, Francisco and Michaels who isn't a liability in the field.  Basically, we signed Dellucci and Nixon ... and yet we're still looking for them.

Lofton has been a consistently good hitter against RHP, and while his defense has always been overrated, I have no doubt he can manage to be a league-average RF or above-average LF.

Also, Crowe's prospects as a prospect are suspect, and the odds of his becoming an impact player (not just making it, but really mattering) are very, very long.

by Jay on Jul 9, 2007 11:53 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Rosenthal on foxsports says that the Brewers turned down a Tony Gwynn jr. for akinori otuska. I feel like Franklin Guiterrez is as good or even a better prospect than Gwynn jr. and if that's all it would take to get significant relief help i'd be quite happy.
   anyways, it's a hell of a lot better than giving up crowe for lofton

by prudential18 on Jul 8, 2007 8:13 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
You think that Crowe's a better prospect that Gutz?  I'm not so sure.
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jul 8, 2007 8:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I'd much rather trade Crowe for Lofton than Gutz for Otsuka.
Cleveland: It's like punching yourself in the face.

by fwembt on Jul 8, 2007 10:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Otsuka is one of the top relievers in baseball and has been over the last 3 seasons.

I make this trade in a heartbeat.  Gutz doesnt even play everyday.

What about this idea...we get Sosa and Otsuka for Gutz, a starter, and a minor leaguer.

Sosa is owed nothing and essentially that deal is what you wanted for Griffey but with no years and less money.

by Tribe Alive on Jul 9, 2007 10:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Sosa sucks, quite frankly.

by homelytourist on Jul 9, 2007 2:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I am not a fan of him either.  I really am not...but I do think he helps us out.  I obviously only would get him if Otsuka is thrown in.

by Tribe Alive on Jul 9, 2007 3:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Sosa does suck and I don't want Griffey. Do you think the Rangers are not aware that Otsuka is good? Do you think are sitting there thinking "Hey, we should trade our backup plan for the perpetually injured Eric Gagne away for a corner OF who can't hit righties and doesn't play every day?" No, they are not.

We need to stop living in the dream world where teams make trades with us because we think they are a good idea. Lofton for Crowe works for both teams. Gutz for Otsuka would be absolutely stupid for the Rangers.

Cleveland: It's like punching yourself in the face.

by fwembt on Jul 9, 2007 3:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Is this a joke?

Do you know what Crowe's numbers look like?

by afh4 on Jul 9, 2007 4:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I am confused here...who do we value more?  Crowe or Gutz?

by Tribe Alive on Jul 9, 2007 4:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Gutz is raking at AAA and trying to break-through into the Majors.  Crowe is just starting to figure out AA.  Who'd you rather have, but don't believe me, Google those guys and read what others say.

by JK in CBus on Jul 9, 2007 4:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
You are going about this all wrong. Gutz has a lot more value right now but that's not even close to the point.

by afh4 on Jul 9, 2007 4:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Gutz and Crowe could end up being very, very similar players.  My question is that the Rangers might value someone with more upside than they value someone like Gutz.

You never know...either way...Lofton is not worth either one of them.  PERIOD.

Lofton will get a couple average minor leaguers in a deal.  Not a ML ready guy and a top prospect in the system.

by Tribe Alive on Jul 9, 2007 5:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I actually think that Crowe and a second-tier pitching prospect (Mujica?) for Lofton is a great deal under the circumstances.  We should be so lucky.  Deadline deals are a whole different ballgame.  The stakes are high, so we must overpay to fill positional needs that are common among the contenders.

by homelytourist on Jul 9, 2007 6:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I'd wait before selling low on crowe, especially that low. I think Lofton would be a good acquisition but not for Crowe.

by world dictator on Jul 9, 2007 7:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I'd wait before selling low on crowe, especially that low. I think Lofton would be a good acquisition but not for Crowe.

by world dictator on Jul 9, 2007 7:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Also, it's a stretch to call Crowe a top prospect, despite the lofty and outdated BA ranking (Does anyone still think of him as the number 3 prospect in the system?).  He's out of the top ten, and I'm not even sure I'd include him in my top 20.  Maybe he can be packaged as a "needs a change of scenery" guy?  

Look what the Mariners parted with for their 2006 "playoff push", Choo and Asdrubal were, IIRC, to of the Mariner's top 10 prospects going into last year; and those two were in better standing than Crowe at the time of the deals.  Because Shapiro isn't Bavasi, he'll fare much better, but even a deal for Lofton will  necessitate a sacrifice.

The more I think about it, the more I like the Lofton idea.  Symbolism aside, he'd be a very nice LH compliment to J-Mike over in Left field if the prognosis on Dellucci isn't good.  Where does he fit in the order?  Wherever Ben Francisco's batting.

by homelytourist on Jul 9, 2007 7:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I think someone mentioned Stairs in a game thread. I know he isn't all that great defensively (he's better than Nixon tho) and still is a good masher. He can even help as a LH 1B too.

Whaddya think?

by talonk on Jul 9, 2007 7:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
.896 OPS, .544 SLG.  Um, check.  Strikes out in fewer than 1/ 10 ABs so he'd be great as a PH in situations where you just need deep contact.  Only 4 GIDPs in 195 ABs.  
There's the bad defense, but we have other guys who could sub there.
Yeah, he's a guy I'd like for the stretch run.  I don't know where to get his contract info, but I think it's safe to assume that his deal is a friendly one.

It's a great idea, IMO.

by homelytourist on Jul 9, 2007 7:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
oops, I mean that he srikes out in fewer than 1/5 of his ABs... 36 in 195, or something like 110 over 600.  

He's no Dunn, in other words.

by homelytourist on Jul 9, 2007 7:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Stairs made $1.35 million last year, and signed a one year minor-league contract with the Jays this offseason.  Not sure how much, but it's not enough to worry about.

by homelytourist on Jul 9, 2007 9:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
What about if the Yankees decide to put Abreu on the market?

He has about $7.5M left this year and a $2M buyout for his $16M team option in 08.

If we eat all the salary, lesser prospects to give up. If NY eats the $$, higher prospects.

As much as I like Abreu, I don't think he's a great fit $$ wise. But he hits LH and plays RF dcently enough.

by talonk on Jul 10, 2007 6:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I think he'd be a decent fit, and the Yankees probably would be willing to eat some salary.

Abreu has a complete no-trade clause -- freakin' idiot that Ed Wade -- and he extracted a $1.5 million payment from the Phillies in exchange for waiving it.

Would he ask for it again, or would it be enough to just be traded to a contender right before free agency?

In a lineup that already exhausts pitchers, Abreu would be one of the most exhausting, just as when he joined the Yankees a year ago.  He draws walks like crazy.

by Jay on Jul 11, 2007 10:37 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I must raise the question of who appointed you the determiner of who was worth what. You saw the numbers Lofton has put up for the last three year, correct? I'll take that over Trot any day. Crowe looks, at this point, to be an average prospect. The love affair with him befuddles me.

Gutz is certainly useful but he is not an everyday player at this point, Lofton is. Either way, we are not mortgaging the future here. We are talking about a ML bench player or a player who can't hit in AA in exchange for someone who is a consistent lefthanded bat with good speed. I am dumbfounded at the resistance to this. You act as if we are offering Adam Miller.

Cleveland: It's like punching yourself in the face.

by fwembt on Jul 9, 2007 8:50 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Since I'm the one who started this little fracas, let me jump in here.  Like I said at the beginning it's a wild-ass guess.  Here's my thinking: Kenny's got maybe two good years left in him and could break down at any moment.  Crowe could - could - turn into a Lofton type player for the next ten years.  Would the Rangers, who are going no where for the forseeable future, trade the here and now Kenny for a guy who has a <25% chance of being an equivalent player for the next ten years?  Maybe.

As to who the Rangers would want - and this gets even more speculative - me, myself, personally, would trade just about any of our outfield prospects - mostly cuz I can't tell which one is gonna be Grady and which one is gonna be Alex Escobar.

It's just baseball bar talk.  Lot's of what-ifs base solely on wild-ass conjecture.  Nothing worth getting your blood pressure elevated for.

Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jul 10, 2007 7:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
uhhh.... according to Rosenthal, who i think is one of the more reliable sources out there, the rangers offered him for Gwynn jr., and i'd say both Gutz and Crowe are better prospects due to the fact they can at least hit for a little bit of power
   so it's a very reasonable proposal, and i'd say Otsuka not only fills a bigger need than lofton, he also is a better player

by prudential18 on Jul 9, 2007 8:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Rosenthal is generally reliable, so I'm not going to try to call bullshit.

I will say that there must be something, tools wise, that the Rangers love about Gwynn to make that offer. It just doesn't make much sense to me otherwise.

And I'm assuming whatever unique quality Gwynn has isn't shared by Gutz or Crowe. It just seems like they could ransom him much, much higher.

by afh4 on Jul 9, 2007 10:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I think the reason they turned down the Gwynn for Otsuka deal is that Bill Hall's on the DL for 2-6 weeks & they need someone to take his place in center. I read they're going to try calling up Grant Balfour (ex-Twin who had some serious arm problems the past couple of years) in the hopes that he can be a decent RP for them.

by zempf on Jul 9, 2007 11:12 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Only one quibble Ryan. Saying that Nixon has "little range in right" seems to imply that he actually has some range.
Cleveland: It's like punching yourself in the face.

by fwembt on Jul 8, 2007 10:17 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Well, he can get from the dugout to the field, so that's technically range.

He's still better than Lawton circa 2004, though.

by Ryan on Jul 8, 2007 11:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
You'd think horse steroids would add some speed.

by nickjs21 on Jul 8, 2007 11:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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