The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
It's July, which means one thing for baseball teams: lots and lots of trade talk. Whether anything gets done is one matter, but we can try to guess who the Indians are talking to and who they are trying to obtain.
(1) Should the Indians be looking to buy?
Absolutely. The Indians are currently 52-35, and will be in the worst case scenario one game out of first place at the All-Star Break. This is a team that is certainly good enough to make the playoffs, and as we saw last postseason, any playoff team is a World Series contender.
(2) Will the Indians need to buy in order to make the playoffs?
This question comes more into play later on when you decide who you can part with, but for now, let's assume that improving the team certainly couldn't hurt. Even if the Indians were competing against the 1999 AL Central, they still should be looking for ways of getting better.
(3) What areas/positions should the Indians try to improve?
In other words, what areas would be the easiest to upgrade? First, let's review what the starting lineup did in the first half:
C: Victor Martinez - 302 AB, .325/.384/.546, 67 RC (1st)
Kelly Shoppach - 83 AB, .349/.409/.602, 20 RC (1st)
No problems here.
1B: Ryan Garko - 238 AB, .294/.358/.466, 35 RC (11th)
The rate stats are good, so again, no problem.
2B: Josh Barfield - 304 AB, .257/.282/.339, 35 RC (10th)
Barfield's bat is a major concern, especially his alarming lack of both power and walks. If the Indians do make an upgrade here, it will be a complimentary player, not an everyday starter.
SS: Jhonny Peralta - 312 AB, .276/.348/.465, 54 RC (4th)
No problem.
3B Casey Blake - 321 AB, .277/.362/.474, 40 RC (5th)
Surprisingly good on defense, so no need for an upgrade.
CF Grady Sizemore - 338 AB, .281/.395/.464, 71 RC (2nd)
Next.
LF Jason Michaels - 159 AB, .289/.350/.459, 29 RC (9th)
David Dellucci - 175 AB, .234/.301/.389, 18 RC (15th)
Ben Francisco - 24 AB, .417/.440/.917, 6 RC
Shin-Soo Choo - 17 AB, .294/.350/.294, 3 RC
Both Dellucci and Choo are sidelined with fairly serious injuries, Michaels' numbers reflect platooning, and Francisco has just 24 MLB at-bats. So the position is at best unsettled. Definitely a candidate for an upgrade.
RF Trot Nixon - 221 AB, .240/.335/.326, 25 RC (14th)
Franklin Gutierrez - 66 AB, .288/.338/.485, 9 RC
Nixon just isn't an everyday starting outfielder anymore. That leaves Gutierrez, who's had trouble against right-handed pitching in his short MLB career. A left-handed right fielder would seem to be a good fit.
DH Travis Hafner - 293 AB, .259/.396/.451, 48 RC (3rd)
Pronk's having one of his worst seasons, and he's still one of the best DHs in the league. No upgrade needed.
IF Mike Rouse - 56 AB, .125/.206/.143, 1 RC
He's been good defensively, but a supermassive black hole at the plate. An upgrade would be nice.
Defensive Concerns?
Ryan Garko still has difficulty making some routine plays at first base, and Trot Nixon has little range in right.
Injury Concerns?
David Dellucci probably won't be back until August.
Now let's look at the pitchers:
SP CC Sabathia - 133.1 IP, 3.58 ERA, 68 PRC
Fausto Carmona - 102.1 IP, 3.78 ERA, 46 PRC
Paul Byrd - 93.2 IP, 4.71 ERA, 34 PRC
Cliff Lee - 75.2 IP, 5.23 ERA, 25 PRC
Jake Westbrook - 47.1 IP, 6.27 ERA, 13 PRC
Jeremy Sowers - 62.1 IP, 6.97 ERA, 13 PRC
Everyone's finally healthy, and while Westbrook and Lee need to pitch better, a starting pitcher should be a low priority.
RP Joe Borowski - 32.2 IP, 5.51 ERA, 1.789 WXRL
Rafael Betancourt - 37.2 IP, 1.19 ERA, 3.489 WXRL
Rafael Perez - 23.2 IP, 1.90 ERA, 0.726 WXRL
Aaron Fultz - 21.0 IP, 1.71 ERA, 0.426 WXRL
Tom Mastny - 35.0 IP, 4.63 ERA, 0.372 WXRL
Fernando Cabrera - 32.1 IP, 4.73 ERA, 0.160 WXRL
Jason Stanford - 21.0 IP, 4.71 ERA, -0.018 WXRL
These are the current guys in the bullpen, excepting Edward Mujica, who will go down after the All-Star Break. The top four on the list have been productive, but the last three spots could be upgraded.
Injury Concerns? Aaron Fultz is currently on the DL, but should return next weekend.
So by my estimation, the Indians should be looking for a left-handed outfielder, at least one reliever, and possibly an infielder. Next, I'll try to come up with some realistic targets.
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79 comments
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by Pronk33 on
Jul 8, 2007 1:41 AM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Along with Fultz, we can expect Matt Miller back soon too, right?
by mkwng on
Jul 8, 2007 9:51 AM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by Ryan on
Jul 8, 2007 6:49 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by MTF on
Jul 8, 2007 9:19 AM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Relief pitching's another matter. It's highly unlikely that both Mastny and Cabrera will revert to their "good" self's anytime soon. At least one veteran is needed here - somebody who's been through a pennant race and knows how to pitch. You know - somebody who can perform in the clutch. I'll await for your list of candidates but there's only one guy out their who I think we've got a shot at and am certain will make an impact - Octavio Dotel. Him I can get excited about.
by mauichuck on
Jul 8, 2007 9:24 AM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I'll mention David Aardsma's name for the last time here as my buy-low candidate.
by nickjs21 on
Jul 8, 2007 9:35 AM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by mauichuck on
Jul 8, 2007 9:41 AM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by hans on
Jul 8, 2007 12:32 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by mauichuck on
Jul 8, 2007 12:35 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by hans on
Jul 8, 2007 12:38 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by hans on
Jul 8, 2007 12:41 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
9 years/$116.5M (2000-08), plus $16.5M 2009 club option
Forget all of the hocus-pocus regarding deferred money, you're still responsible for the $116.m plus the vigorish so it's $116.5M/9 or damn near $20M a year. Pro-rate this year's salary ~$10M and, viola, $30M.
by mauichuck on
Jul 8, 2007 12:52 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Also, cash flow does have inherent value. The fact that $9.5 million is deferred 15-plus years is most definitely another plus. It most definitely matters that Griffey only needs to be paid $3 million in 2007 (remaining), $6 million in 2008, and $4 million in 2009 (buyout).
Salary will not stop the Indians from acquiring Griffey. The cost in talent might, and competitive bidding might, but payroll will not.
by Jay on
Jul 8, 2007 1:45 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by mauichuck on
Jul 8, 2007 2:01 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by Jay on
Jul 8, 2007 2:29 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
- $3 million
- $6 million
- $4 million (assuming we don't pick up his option)
- $4 million
- $7 million
- $7 million
In 2006, $7 million was the salary of the 112th best-paid player. (A seven-way tie, actually, including Byrd and Sabathia, for 109-115.)
In 1990, 16 years earlier, $1.17 million was the salary of the 112-114th best-paid player.
In 2006, the median payroll was $72 million. So that $1.17 million is about 1.6% of median team payroll, 16 years later. It's about 40% of the average major league salary, which was $2.87 million.
So if we see similar salary inflation over the next 16 years, the impact of Griffey's deferred payments will be less than than three years of Aaron Fultz, or Jason Michaels.
by Jay on
Jul 8, 2007 2:54 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Remember we have the extra $5M slated for Foulke, and even with that I think we still had $2-3M available since Nixon/Dellucci/releivers all came cheaper than expected.
Taking on payoll would not be the issue at this point, it would be how much of the minor league talent that Shapiro stockpiles that he'd be willing to give up.
by talonk on
Jul 9, 2007 6:44 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by mauichuck on
Jul 9, 2007 7:10 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
*Dellucci on the shelf, hopefully back by mid-August (so sort of a semi-acquisition in itself)
*Dellucci with a somewhat difficult contract to move
*Marte still around (and out of options next year)to possibly push Blake back to RF in 08
*Choo and Gutierrez out of options next year (not sure about Francisco)
I understand that Michaels' contract is totally moveable, and we may end up moving one of Choo/Gutz/Francisco anyway for a reliever but that's still a big logjam to sort through.
by cheech99 on
Jul 8, 2007 12:06 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by NickFantana on
Jul 8, 2007 1:22 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
But all other things are not equal, however, as the Reds' not-contending-anytime-soon status makes Dunn basically worthless to them. Krivsky needs to figure out, however, that Dunn is nothing more than a solid (and not spectacular) two-month rental, and that it's his value to another team that will determine what he can get in a trade.
Until and unless Krivsky figures that out, Dunn will not be traded. I think he will figure it out, but we'll also need to see if Krivsky has the maturity and integrity to do a deal that benefits one of his old team's rivals.
by Jay on
Jul 8, 2007 1:52 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by Ryan on
Jul 8, 2007 6:44 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by Brick. on
Jul 8, 2007 12:34 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by hans on
Jul 8, 2007 12:34 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I really dig the LGT community.
I have thought that the suggestion of trading Cliff Lee and F. Gutierrez for Griffey was a reasonable one ever since it was suggested at this site. Does anyone agree? It would definitely be cool if Griffey was an Indian for his 600th HR.
I also agree that we need a RP. If Dotel is too expensive, what about Dan Wheeler from Houston? He hasn't been consistent this year but has a good track record and a change of leagues may be the ticket.
by Kenyafan on
Jul 8, 2007 4:48 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I was also thinking about a deal including Gutz and maybe another player, for Dunn.
by hans on
Jul 8, 2007 5:40 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
And you wonder how much of an impression Gutz left with Cincy with that phenomenal game-saving catch in that Saturday night game.
Would Cincy be looking to move David Weathers too? I'd be more inclinded to want Griffey and Weathers.
Thing is, if we extend Hafner over the ASB, I'd have to think any Griffey deal would likely be shelved, but perhaps not.
by cheech99 on
Jul 8, 2007 5:56 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by woodsmeister on
Jul 8, 2007 6:24 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I think you're undervaluing Lee's contract. It's one of the best deals for a pitcher in baseball, even if Lee is just a 4/5. He's incredibly cheap clear through to 2010 when inflation is considered.
Lee right now has a weirdly alluring quality: he actually will win games for you, almost all by himself. Other days he will be absolutely terrible, but he's not a consistently mediocre pitcher right now. He's a pitcher who's great one day and terrible the next.
As someone else pointed out, the Reds would be insane to put Lee in GAB. Especially after the Joe Mays, Eric Milton disasters.
by afh4 on
Jul 9, 2007 11:22 AM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by mauichuck on
Jul 8, 2007 6:38 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by homelytourist on
Jul 8, 2007 7:04 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by mauichuck on
Jul 8, 2007 8:23 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Crowe for Kenny. Ummm, yes. Crowe's got a little hitting streak going, right?
by homelytourist on
Jul 8, 2007 8:27 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
A - we have Grady in center
B - we have a lead off hitter
C - we need power not speed
D - we need a corner OF
E - Lofton has no arm to play a corner OF position
F - Crowe is one of our top prospects
I think those are enough reasons...
by Tribe Alive on
Jul 9, 2007 10:49 AM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
B- Why can't Kenny bat 6-8, he doesn't hafta replace Grady, he's replacing Trot.
C - With Trot we've got neither
D - See A
E - He's got enough arm to play center right? Why not LF?
F - Change is to was and you're right. But Crowe is almost indistinguishable for Gutz, Francisco et al. If not Crowe let the Rangers choose from one of our other 5-7 OF prospects.
Nope - not enough reasons to drop the idea.
by mauichuck on
Jul 9, 2007 11:04 AM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
WORST OUTFIELD EVER! Can't Gutz or Francisco provide the speed and average of Lofton? And, arent they a hell of a lot better fielders at those positions (considering Lofton never even played there).
WOW...that would be no upgrade and it would mean we get rid of some young talent.
I would rather Sosa for what we need as a team...
by Tribe Alive on
Jul 9, 2007 1:23 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by APV on
Jul 9, 2007 1:49 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Somewhere #6-8? Or, what about moving Kenny into the #2 hole and dropping Blake down to #7?
Just a thought . . . but fun to speculate, nonetheless.
by mplswahoo on
Jul 9, 2007 1:57 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by APV on
Jul 9, 2007 2:14 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by mauichuck on
Jul 9, 2007 1:54 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by drerikbrady on
Jul 9, 2007 4:58 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by mauichuck on
Jul 9, 2007 5:02 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by afh4 on
Jul 9, 2007 2:07 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by mauichuck on
Jul 9, 2007 2:17 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I think Lofton and Michaels basically platooned in CF for the 2005 Phillies. And it worked pretty damned well from what I recall. (Go ahead, look it up and embarass me.)
by Jay on
Jul 9, 2007 10:56 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by hans on
Jul 9, 2007 11:06 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
My sense is that we're looking for a left-handed complement to Gutierrez, Francisco and Michaels who isn't a liability in the field. Basically, we signed Dellucci and Nixon ... and yet we're still looking for them.
Lofton has been a consistently good hitter against RHP, and while his defense has always been overrated, I have no doubt he can manage to be a league-average RF or above-average LF.
Also, Crowe's prospects as a prospect are suspect, and the odds of his becoming an impact player (not just making it, but really mattering) are very, very long.
by Jay on
Jul 9, 2007 11:53 AM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
anyways, it's a hell of a lot better than giving up crowe for lofton
by prudential18 on
Jul 8, 2007 8:13 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by mauichuck on
Jul 8, 2007 8:24 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by fwembt on
Jul 8, 2007 10:16 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I make this trade in a heartbeat. Gutz doesnt even play everyday.
What about this idea...we get Sosa and Otsuka for Gutz, a starter, and a minor leaguer.
Sosa is owed nothing and essentially that deal is what you wanted for Griffey but with no years and less money.
by Tribe Alive on
Jul 9, 2007 10:51 AM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by homelytourist on
Jul 9, 2007 2:21 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by Tribe Alive on
Jul 9, 2007 3:24 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
We need to stop living in the dream world where teams make trades with us because we think they are a good idea. Lofton for Crowe works for both teams. Gutz for Otsuka would be absolutely stupid for the Rangers.
by fwembt on
Jul 9, 2007 3:28 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by Tribe Alive on
Jul 9, 2007 4:06 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Do you know what Crowe's numbers look like?
by afh4 on
Jul 9, 2007 4:16 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by Tribe Alive on
Jul 9, 2007 4:24 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by JK in CBus on
Jul 9, 2007 4:32 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by afh4 on
Jul 9, 2007 4:34 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
You never know...either way...Lofton is not worth either one of them. PERIOD.
Lofton will get a couple average minor leaguers in a deal. Not a ML ready guy and a top prospect in the system.
by Tribe Alive on
Jul 9, 2007 5:29 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by homelytourist on
Jul 9, 2007 6:35 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by world dictator on
Jul 9, 2007 7:09 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by world dictator on
Jul 9, 2007 7:11 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Look what the Mariners parted with for their 2006 "playoff push", Choo and Asdrubal were, IIRC, to of the Mariner's top 10 prospects going into last year; and those two were in better standing than Crowe at the time of the deals. Because Shapiro isn't Bavasi, he'll fare much better, but even a deal for Lofton will necessitate a sacrifice.
The more I think about it, the more I like the Lofton idea. Symbolism aside, he'd be a very nice LH compliment to J-Mike over in Left field if the prognosis on Dellucci isn't good. Where does he fit in the order? Wherever Ben Francisco's batting.
by homelytourist on
Jul 9, 2007 7:20 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Whaddya think?
by talonk on
Jul 9, 2007 7:28 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
There's the bad defense, but we have other guys who could sub there.
Yeah, he's a guy I'd like for the stretch run. I don't know where to get his contract info, but I think it's safe to assume that his deal is a friendly one.
It's a great idea, IMO.
by homelytourist on
Jul 9, 2007 7:52 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
He's no Dunn, in other words.
by homelytourist on
Jul 9, 2007 7:57 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by homelytourist on
Jul 9, 2007 9:20 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
He has about $7.5M left this year and a $2M buyout for his $16M team option in 08.
If we eat all the salary, lesser prospects to give up. If NY eats the $$, higher prospects.
As much as I like Abreu, I don't think he's a great fit $$ wise. But he hits LH and plays RF dcently enough.
by talonk on
Jul 10, 2007 6:33 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Abreu has a complete no-trade clause -- freakin' idiot that Ed Wade -- and he extracted a $1.5 million payment from the Phillies in exchange for waiving it.
Would he ask for it again, or would it be enough to just be traded to a contender right before free agency?
In a lineup that already exhausts pitchers, Abreu would be one of the most exhausting, just as when he joined the Yankees a year ago. He draws walks like crazy.
by Jay on
Jul 11, 2007 10:37 AM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
Gutz is certainly useful but he is not an everyday player at this point, Lofton is. Either way, we are not mortgaging the future here. We are talking about a ML bench player or a player who can't hit in AA in exchange for someone who is a consistent lefthanded bat with good speed. I am dumbfounded at the resistance to this. You act as if we are offering Adam Miller.
by fwembt on
Jul 9, 2007 8:50 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
As to who the Rangers would want - and this gets even more speculative - me, myself, personally, would trade just about any of our outfield prospects - mostly cuz I can't tell which one is gonna be Grady and which one is gonna be Alex Escobar.
It's just baseball bar talk. Lot's of what-ifs base solely on wild-ass conjecture. Nothing worth getting your blood pressure elevated for.
by mauichuck on
Jul 10, 2007 7:51 AM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
so it's a very reasonable proposal, and i'd say Otsuka not only fills a bigger need than lofton, he also is a better player
by prudential18 on
Jul 9, 2007 8:37 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
I will say that there must be something, tools wise, that the Rangers love about Gwynn to make that offer. It just doesn't make much sense to me otherwise.
And I'm assuming whatever unique quality Gwynn has isn't shared by Gutz or Crowe. It just seems like they could ransom him much, much higher.
by afh4 on
Jul 9, 2007 10:35 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by zempf on
Jul 9, 2007 11:12 AM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by fwembt on
Jul 8, 2007 10:17 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
He's still better than Lawton circa 2004, though.
by Ryan on
Jul 8, 2007 11:13 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by nickjs21 on
Jul 8, 2007 11:30 PM EDT
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Re: The Summer Shopping Season, Part I
by mplswahoo on
Jul 8, 2007 11:59 PM EDT
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