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Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs

Exactly how does a small-market club assemble a championship roster?  The longest-tenured Indian may not be who you think it is.  The 2007 champs are in bold, but every transaction listed led, directly or indirectly, to acquiring a 2007 contributor.

June 1977 - Drafted Jerry Dybzinski.

April 1983 - Traded Jerry Dybzinski to Blue Jays for Pat Tabler.

June 1988 - Traded Pat Tabler to Royals for Bud Black.

Dec 1988 - Re-signed Bud Black.

Jun 1989 - Drafted Alan Embree.

Sep 1990 - Traded Bud Black to Blue Jays for Mauro Gozzo, PTBNL Alex Sanchez and PTBNL Steve Cummings.
Oct 1990 - Signed amateurs Einar Diaz and Jose Cabrera.
Nov 1990 - Traded Alex Sanchez to Blue Jays for Willie Blair.
Dec 1990 - Traded a minor leaguer to the Mets for Kyle Washington.

Apr 1991 - Claimed Eddie Taubensee off waivers from Athletics.
Dec 1991 - Traded Eddie Taubensee and Willie Blair to Astros for Kenny Lofton and David Rohde.

Jul 1992 - Traded Kyle Washington to Orioles for Jose Mesa.

Jun 1993 - Signed amateur Bartolo Colon.
Jun 1993 - Drafted Richie Sexson.

Jul 1994 - Signed amateur Marco Scutaro.

Jun 1996 - Drafted John McDonald, David Riske, Paul Rigdon, Mike Bacsik and Danny Peoples.
Jul 1996 - Signed amateur Victor Martinez.

Mar 1997 - Traded Kenny Lofton and Alan Embree to Braves for David Justice and Marquis Grissom.
May 1997 - Traded Jose Cabrera to Astros for Alvin Morman.
May 1997 - Extended David Justice.
Jun 1997 - Drafted Tim Drew.

Feb 1998 - Signed free agent Shawon Dunston.
Jun 1998 - Drafted C.C. Sabathia and Ryan Drese.
Jul 1998 - Traded Shawon Dunston, Jose Mesa and Alvin Morman to Giants for Steve Reed and Jacob Cruz.
Dec 1998 - Signed free agent Roberto Alomar.

Apr 1999 - Signed amateur Jhonny Peralta.
Dec 1999 - Signed free agent Kane Davis (released by Pirates).
Dec 1999 - Signed free agent Chuck Finley.

Jun 2000 - Traded David Justice to Yankees for Ricky Ledee, Zach Day and Jake Westbrook.
Jul 2000 - Traded Paul Rigdon, Richie Sexson, Kane Davis and PTBNL Marco Scutaro to Brewers for Bob Wickman, Jason Bere and Steve Woodard.
Dec 2000 - Signed amateur Fausto Carmona.

Jun 2001 - Traded Jacob Cruz to Rockies for Jody Gerut and Josh Bard.
Jul 2001 - Traded Zach Day to Expos for Milton Bradley.
Dec 2001 - Traded Roberto Alomar, Mike Bacsik and Danny Peoples to Mets for Matt Lawton, Alex Escobar, Jerrod Riggan, PTBNL Billy Traber and PTBNL Earl Snyder.

Jan 2002 - Signed amateur Rafael Perez.
Jun 2002 - Drafted Ben Francisco.
Jun 2002 - Traded Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew to Expos for Lee Stevens, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore.
Aug 2002 - Traded Chuck Finley to Cardinals for Luis Garcia and PTBNL Coco Crisp.
Dec 2002 - Signed free agent Casey Blake (released by Twins).
Dec 2002 - Traded Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese to Rangers for Travis Hafner and Aaron Myette.

Jan 2003 - Signed free agent Rafael Betancourt (released by Red Sox).
Jun 2003 - Drafted Ryan Garko, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Aaron Laffey.

Apr 2004 - Traded Milton Bradley to Dodgers for Franklin Gutierrez and PTBNL Andrew Brown.
Jun 2004 - Drafted Jeremy Sowers.
Nov 2004 - Re-signed Bob Wickman.
Dec 2004 - Traded Matt Lawton to Pirates for Arthur Rhodes.
Dec 2004 - Traded John McDonald to Blue Jays for PTBNL Tom Mastny.

Apr 2005 - Extended C.C. Sabathia.
Jun 2005 - Drafted Jensen Lewis.
Dec 2005 - Re-signed Bob Wickman.
Dec 2005 - Signed free agent Paul Byrd.

Jan 2006 - Signed free agent Eduardo Perez.
Jan 2006 - Traded Coco Crisp, Josh Bard and David Riske to Red Sox for Andy Marte, Kelly Shoppach and Guillermo Mota.
Jan 2006 - Traded Arthur Rhodes to Phillies for Jason Michaels.
Jun 2006 - Traded Eduardo Perez to Mariners for Asdrubal Cabrera.
Jul 2006 - Traded Bob Wickman to Braves for Max Ramirez.
Sep 2006 - Claimed Mike Rouse off waivers from Athletics.
Nov 2006 - Traded Kevin Kouzmanoff and Andrew Brown to Padres for Josh Barfield.
Dec 2006 - Signed free agents Dave Dellucci, Joe Borowski and Aaron Fultz.

Jan 2007 - Signed free agent Trot Nixon.
Jan 2007 - Trot Nixon was in Fever Pitch (2005) with Eric Bruno Borgman
Jan 2007 - Eric Bruno Borgman was in Mystic River (2003) with Kevin Bacon
Jul 2007 - Traded Max Ramirez to Rangers for Kenny Lofton.
Aug 2007 - Claimed Chris Gomez off waivers from Orioles.

Star-divide


Breakouts

A huge number of the above transactions led to acquiring only a handful of players. Here's a few breakouts to help follow the links better ...

Westbrook, Gutierrez and Barfield

June 1977 - Drafted Jerry Dybzinski.
April 1983 - Traded Jerry Dybzinski to Blue Jays for Pat Tabler.
June 1988 - Traded Pat Tabler to Royals for Bud Black.
Dec 1988 - Re-signed Bud Black.
Jun 1989 - Drafted Alan Embree.
Sep 1990 - Traded Bud Black to Blue Jays for Mauro Gozzo, PTBNL Alex Sanchez and PTBNL Steve Cummings.
Nov 1990 - Traded Alex Sanchez to Blue Jays for Willie Blair.
Apr 1991 - Claimed Eddie Taubensee off waivers.
Dec 1991 - Traded Eddie Taubensee and Willie Blair to Astros for Kenny Lofton and David Rohde.
Mar 1997 - Traded Kenny Lofton and Alan Embree to Braves for David Justice and Marquis Grissom.
May 1997 - Extended David Justice.
Jun 2000 - Traded David Justice to Yankees for Ricky Ledee, Zach Day and Jake Westbrook.
Jul 2001 - Traded Zach Day to Expos for Milton Bradley.
Jun 2003 - Drafted Kevin Kouzmanoff.
Apr 2004 - Traded Milton Bradley to Dodgers for Franklin Gutierrez and PTBNL Andrew Brown.
Nov 2006 - Traded Kevin Kouzmanoff and Andrew Brown to Padres for Josh Barfield.

Jason Michaels

Jun 1996 - Drafted Mike Bacsik and Danny Peoples.
Dec 1998 - Signed free agent Roberto Alomar.
Dec 2001 - Traded Roberto Alomar, Mike Bacsik and Danny Peoples to Mets for Matt Lawton, Alex Escobar, Jerrod Riggan, PTBNL Billy Traber and PTBNL Earl Snyder.
Dec 2004 - Traded Matt Lawton to Pirates for Arthur Rhodes.
Jan 2006 - Traded Arthur Rhodes to Phillies for Jason Michaels.

Marte and Shoppach

Oct 1990 - Signed amateur Jose Cabrera.
Dec 1990 - Traded a minor leaguer to the Mets for Kyle Washington.
Jul 1992 - Traded Kyle Washington to Orioles for Jose Mesa.
Jun 1996 - Drafted David Riske.
May 1997 - Traded Jose Cabrera to Astros for Alvin Morman.
Feb 1998 - Signed free agent Shawon Dunston.
Jul 1998 - Traded Shawon Dunston, Jose Mesa and Alvin Morman to Giants for Steve Reed and Jacob Cruz.
Dec 1999 - Signed free agent Chuck Finley.
Jun 2001 - Traded Jacob Cruz to Rockies for Jody Gerut and Josh Bard.
Aug 2002 - Traded Chuck Finley to Cardinals for Luis Garcia and PTBNL Coco Crisp.
Jan 2006 - Traded Coco Crisp, Josh Bard and David Riske to Red Sox for Andy Marte, Kelly Shoppach and Guillermo Mota.

Kenny Lofton (third time around)

Jun 1993 - Drafted Richie Sexson.
Jul 1994 - Signed amatuer Marco Scutaro.
Jun 1996 - Drafted Paul Rigdon.
Dec 1999 - Signed free agent Kane Davis (released by Pirates).
Jul 2000 - Traded Paul Rigdon, Richie Sexson, Kane Davis and PTBNL Marco Scutaro to Brewers for Bob Wickman, Jason Bere and Steve Woodard.
Nov 2004 - Re-signed Bob Wickman.
Dec 2005 - Re-signed Bob Wickman.
Jul 2006 - Traded Bob Wickman to Braves for Max Ramirez.
Jul 2007 - Traded Max Ramirez to Rangers for Kenny Lofton.

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Breakouts
A huge number of the above transactions led to acquiring only a handful of players.  Here's a few breakouts to help follow the links better ...

by Jay on Sep 23, 2007 6:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Breakouts
I moved these into the "after the jump" section in the article, see above.

by Jay on Sep 24, 2007 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Peter Gammons just fully endorsed C.C. for the Cy Young, by the way.

by Pronk33 on Sep 23, 2007 6:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Won't matter.  The newspaper writers can't resist the "2" at the start of the win total, and I doubt very much C.C. will get two more five-inning starts.  He's in line to start the last game of the season, but that would put him in Game One of the ALDS on short rest.  That simply will not happen.

C.C.'s numbers are simply not better than Beckett's, other than IP, and the newspaper writers are going to go for the "Big Winner" again.

by Jay on Sep 23, 2007 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
I was under the impression Sabathia's numbers were marginally better than Beckett's, but I guess I was mistaken.  What stats stood out to you on that?  If the writers are so obsessed with wins though, you would hope they'd look at that 10 start stretch where C.C. gave up 2 runs or less in every start, but only got 3 wins out of it (of course, they won't).

by Pronk33 on Sep 23, 2007 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the article; question also on why
you think Beckett's numbers are better than CC's.

Hello Jay,

Great work on the article.

Like Pronk33, I too wonder why you say "Sabathia's numbers are not better than Beckett's, other than IP."

By my count, not only are his IP better, but CC's K/BB ratio is better, CC has thrown more CGs, CC has more SHO, and CC has a higher PRC (127 to 118 when I checked late Friday-early Saturday.)

I'm not saying Sabathia is that far ahead of Beckett, but I think he is slightly ahead of Beckett in a very close race.

I DO agree with you though that Beckett will likely win the Cy Young for two reasons (you mentioned the first one):

  1. Beckett has reached that 20-win number, and likely will be the only pitcher to do that, and the writers almost always go for the highest-winner, even though that doesn't necessarily make him the best pitcher in the league.

  2.  The other reason in my opinion is because Fausto Carmona is a worthy Cy Young candidate in his own right, and that will take votes away from CC.  

Beckett really has no one else on his team to take votes away from him (unless you consider Papelbon, but I doubt he gets that many votes, and certainly not as many as Carmona will get):

Schilling - has been injured for a good part of the year and won't factor into the decision.

Wakefield - has had a solid year (though has faltered a bit of late,) but I'm not sure how much support a knuckleballer will get for the Cy Young, and certainly, not as much as Carmona will get.

Matsuzaka - arguably the surprise factor, as most expected him to really be involved in the Cy Young race, and if his second-half struggles are any indication, he won't factor into the decision as much as most probably thought he would have because he hasn't pitched as well as most thought he was going to.

If he had, that would have taken more votes away from Beckett, giving CC a better chance to win it, or perhaps even more likely, giving someone like Wang or Bedard a good to great chance to win it, since like Beckett, they really have no one else from their own pitching staffs to take votes away from them, unlike Sabathia/Carmona and Lackey/Escobar.

So, overall, I agree with you that Beckett likely will win the AL Cy Young; however, and I am biased, I think Sabathia has outpitched Beckett by the narrowest of margins - there's no doubt in my mind CC should have won 22-23 games this season if the Indians' offense hadn't gone through that offensive slump from June to August (realize that CC lost 3 games where he gave up 2 ERs or less, had 3 NDs giving up 2 ERs, and even had one ND in June where he threw 9 IP, giving up 0 runs.)  Both he and Carmona should have won at least 20 games this year with the way both have pitched if the Indians' offense hadn't struggled to such an extent from June to August, and usually against pitchers you wouldn't expect an offense as talented as the Indians to struggle against.

Conversely, Beckett only suffered 2 losses giving up 2 ERs or less and only 1 ND giving up 2 ER or less, so the Indians' offensive struggles really hurt Sabathia's record more than the Red Sox's offensive struggles have hurt Beckett's record.  That's why I think Sabathia has outpitched Beckett by a slim margin.

Overall, both are worthy of it, and I agree with you Beckett will likely win it, which could benefit the Indians in the sense that Sabathia's next contract won't be as "pricey" as if Sabathia did win the AL CY (Sabathia's next contract will still be pricey even if he comes in 2-3 in the AL CY race, but probably not quite as much as if he actually did win the award.)

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Sep 24, 2007 4:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Thanks for the article; question also on why
Another bizarre tangent ... why are you evaluating the entire Red Sox pitching staff?

Any semi-worthy candidate may siphon votes away from another candidate.  It makes no difference if they're on the same team.  What makes a difference is if the arguments for the two candidates were similar -- which is a legitimate reason for votes to be siphoned.

Looking at ERA, there are seven guys who are more or less separated from the pack, ranging from Carmona (3.03) to Santana (3.29).  We know they're not going to give it to Santana, Bedard or Haren, but that doesn't change the general impression that there are a bunch of guys who had similarly great years, with no one of them standing out.

There is a good argument for Sabathia, but there also are good arguments for Carmona and Beckett and Lackey -- and of course, there is a bad argument for Beckett, which is why he'll actually win.

Instead of wasting six column inches droning on about the Red Sox, why not try to make the argument for Lackey?  Or Beckett?  Because you don't want to.  But if you wanted to see this thing clearly, you would try to make the case for each of these guys, and then you'd realize that there is no clear-cut case for Sabathia.  You'd see that Sabathia's PRC lead is based mostly on his IP lead, and in Beckett's case, mostly on having four more starts.  Sorry to tell you, the voters will not be disqualifying Beckett for making "only" 30-31 starts.

Here's where Beckett is killing Sabathia:  Runs Allowed.  Not just earned runs, but all runs -- which the statistically devout will tell you is a more accurate measure of performance, despite its faults.  Beckett allowed only three unearned runs all year, to Sabathia's eight.  Thus we see that while Sabathia has pitched 39 more innings, he's allowed 20 more runs in those innings, while only getting 17 more strikeouts.

Oops.

And there's the rub, indiansfan.  If Sabathia is to overcome a deficit of two in the Win column, he needs an absolutely unassailable case for being superior to everybody else.  And he doesn't have that.  He's not even the ERA leader.  What in the world makes anyone think someone's going to win the Cy Young without leading the league in Wins or ERA?  And he's not even 2nd!  He's 6th!  And he's behind the Wins leader!

And for the 90th time, can someone please explain to me why Sabathia "deserves" to be higher than 2nd in the league in Wins when he's 6th in ERA?  Why is no one whining about Carmona, whom we all damned well know has pitched just as well and has the same number of Wins?  Is it just a party-line vote around here?

Sabathia is not going to win the Cy Young.  He won't win it because (a) he is not the league leader in Wins, and (b) he is not demonstrably, significantly better than all the other pitchers.  And because of that second fact, we should not be upset about it.  A bunch of guys had a great season, including C.C., and one of them is going to win the Cy Young.  No tragedies here.

by Jay on Sep 24, 2007 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Thanks for the article; question also on why
Thank you, Jay.  As much as I'd like to see CC recognized for his great year, the combination of Beckett's 20 wins, the general similarity of statistics, and the fact that Beckett plays for Boston and therefore taps into the built-in East Coast bias of the media machine will be hard to overcome.

by woodsmeister on Sep 24, 2007 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Thanks for the article; question also on why
Point well taken.  I feel kind of guilty in getting caught up in the whole Cy Young race BS now, since I honestly never gave Carmona or Lackey much thought in that regard.  Besides the fact Sabathia and Beckett happen to be the frontrunners in the eyes of the media, doesn't mean that should impact how one would view the other candidates (who you could also obviously make a legit argument for, as you said).  Yeah, I'd like C.C. to win it, but judging two pitchers by automatically eliminating the rest of their peers, just because they're the popular picks, is a very poor way to evaluate the pitchers as a group.  Kind of embarrasing.  

by Pronk33 on Sep 24, 2007 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Thanks for the article; question also on why
Dude, you guys didn't hear? They already gave the Cy Young award to Joba. I know first time in history where they gave the award before the season was over.,,, He's supposedly that good.

by hans on Sep 24, 2007 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the explanation; further thoughts!
Hello Jay,

Thanks for the explanation - I can see what you mean about Beckett giving up fewer unearned runs than Sabathia, though if I recall correctly, the Red Sox's defense is higher-ranked (much higher-ranked if I remember correctly, though I couldn't find defensive team rankings for this season) than the Indians, so Sabathia likely has had to deal with more errors than Beckett has - would Beckett have given up more unearned runs than Sabathia if he had the Indians' defense behind him and vice versa for Sabathia if he had the Red Sox's defense behind him?  We can't say for sure, but the overall difference probably isn't THAT much, though I understand your point that for Sabathia to win the Cy Young, he'd have to be leading Beckett in that category by a decent margin to overcome the difference in wins between the two.

As for Lackey and Carmona, Lackey's numbers don't quite match up to Sabathia's or Beckett's in my mind:  He's pitched well, but compared to Sabathia, he has a lower K rate (around .5 K/9 IP,) he has a higher WHIP (mostly due to a higher BB rate in fewer innings,) and Lackey has given up 4 more unearned runs and just 1 less HR in 17 fewer IP.  That would seem to place him outside those two for me.

As for Carmona, I do think Carmona has pitched every bit as well as Sabathia has, and even better because he is in his first full season as a starter (without looking it up, I'd say Carmona's "rookie" season as a starter blows away Sabathia's solid rookie season back in 2001,) but for some reason, I keep thinking he's not going to get full consideration for the award because he's in his first full year starting and because Sabathia is considered the #1 for this team, and CC's year has been virtually as impressive as Carmona's, outside of the fact that Carmona is in his first full year starting, whereas CC is in his 7th season.

Looking back at some of the past Cy Young races, I see Tim Hudson in his second season, first full season starting (2000; he started for half a ML season in 1999,) he did finish second to Pedro Martinez in the AL CY, so perhaps Carmona will get full consideration after all - maybe I'm thinking a young pitcher won't get full consideration because not too many young pitchers in their first or second season have pitched as well as Carmona has in 2007.

Maybe I'm also thinking that Carmona will take votes away from Sabathia because of the local writers who vote for the Cy Young Award; I guess national writers won't be as caught up in that as local writers often seem to be, but it seems to me in some past award races that local writers always seemed to split their votes between two quality candidates from the same team, never seeming to fully agree on which one from "their" own team was the better one, which seems to dilute the vote between the two and making each one less likely to win than a player from a team where he was clearly the best on his own team.

Plus, if I may ask, didn't you contradict yourself a bit when you used Beckett's better K/9 IP ratio to justify his being more worthy than Sabathia to win the AL CY, yet essentially ignored Carmona's K/9 IP ratio when saying that Carmona has had as good of a season as Sabathia has had?  No offense.

Like I said, I don't disagree with you; in some ways, I think Carmona has even outpitched CC, especially when you take the experience factor into account, but I guess I'm just wondering how much importance or significance a pitcher's K/9 IP ratio should be taken into the equation of determining who the best pitcher is amongst the four of Beckett, Sabathia, Carmona, Lackey?  If one gets a higher GO ratio (like Carmona does,) does that help to "justify" one having a lower K ratio, and if so, by how much?

Overall, I agree CC won't win the Cy Young and I agree it's no tragedy; like I said, CC's price-tag probably won't go up as high due to the fact he won't win the CY Award, which could make it a bit easier for the Indians to keep him.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Sep 24, 2007 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Thanks for the explanation; further thoughts!
Well, for me anyway, the K's are a small part of the "will win" question and almost-zero part of the "should win" question.  "Almost" because the K's are part of establishing how lucky a pitcher has been on balls in play.

I don't know if K's hurt a pitcher with Cy Young voters, but a gaudy K total can help a guy.  I don't see C.C. as having a total that quite qualifies as "gaudy" though, and his K rates are not better than Beckett's.  So he doesn't get an edge there with the voters, that's my main point.

Let's pause to remember that the voters are cattle -- special-needs cattle in fact.

As far as the should-win discussion, I wouldn't count Carmona's K's against him just because he's kinda-sorta an extreme groundballer, so you can't quite judge how he's doing just by the K's.

by Jay on Sep 24, 2007 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Thanks for the explanation; further thoughts!
Take it easy Jay, let's not insult cattle with special needs quite so freely.
-Erik, Appalachian State Alum, Class of 1996

by drerikbrady on Sep 24, 2007 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the clarification!
Hello Jay,

I was thinking along the same lines with Carmona - I know that was a constant complaint against him when he was coming up (especially among the MinorLeagueBall posters,) but his stuff, especially his power sinker, seem good enough where he only has to strike out 5-7 K/9 IP to be able to be a dominant pitcher, whereas someone without a power sinker like his might have to have more of a 7-9 K/9 IP ratio to be comparably dominant to Carmona against the same lineups.

As for Sabathia, I agree, his K rates aren't as good as Beckett's - that's why I wondered how much that might "hurt" him in terms of the AL CY.  But I agree, the overall runs given up, and in the voter's minds, the big "20" especially will give the AL CY to Beckett.  No big loss - while this might be just "speak," it seems Sabathia is genuinely more interested in winning a WS, and of course, I'd think we'd all take a WS Championship over a Cy Young winner if we could only have one.  :-)

Just my 2 cents.

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Sep 24, 2007 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Thanks for the explanation; further thoughts!
would Beckett have given up more unearned runs than Sabathia if he had the Indians' defense behind him and vice versa for Sabathia if he had the Red Sox's defense behind him?

Hypotheticals really shouldn't be part of this. We aren't trying to predict which pitcher will be better, we're trying to determine which pitcher was  better. If Paul Byrd had an ERA of 2.50 with his usual hit ratios and low WHIP, he'd be a legitimate candidate even though there's way he's ever going to repeat that kind of ERA again.

Carmona's going to get some votes because of his record and how the Indians did this season, but I really don't see anyone choosing Fausto over CC - especially those voters who've followed the Indians. CC's a team leader, the ace of the staff, so anyone who takes those qualities into consideration isn't going to vote for Fausto over CC.

 

by Ryan on Sep 24, 2007 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Thanks for the explanation; further thoughts!
Excellent point.  While some of the advanced stats may do better to predict future success, the traditional stats are pretty effective in determining who actually had the better season (W-L record mostly excluded).

For what its worth ESPN does a nice job keeping track of Bill James/Neyer predictor of Cy Young awards.  The formula is at the bottom of the page and it involves IP's, K's, ERs, Saves, Wins and Losses.

It has Sabathia with a slight edge of Beckett.  The top five is filled out by Lackey, Carmona and K-Rod.  For what its worth, the actual winner in each league has ranked in the top three using the equation in each of the last 3 years.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy?season=2006

by Ryan Kelsey on Sep 24, 2007 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Thanks for the explanation; further thoughts!
I'd forgotten about that.  C.C.'s slim lead will vanish if/when Boston clinches the division, which will give Beckett six more points by itself.  Both guys have one start left.

In 2005, the system predicted:  Mariano Rivera.  And the newspaper writers picked:  the guy with the most wins.

The 2004 AL vote shows what it takes for anyone to win over the Wins leader:  ERA leader and K leader for a playoff team.

by Jay on Sep 24, 2007 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Thanks for the explanation; further thoughts!
right, I forgot to mention the division title bonus.  Still, its close enough to go to any of the top few guys, and you are probably right that wins will be the tiebreaker in most voters' minds.

by Ryan Kelsey on Sep 24, 2007 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Thanks for the explanation; further thoughts!
Maybe I'm being naive, but I feel as if I've seen reporters (not all of them very good) at various outlets (ESPN, CBS, FoxSports, CNNSI) highlight the large disparity in innings pitched between CC and Beckett as a stat that pushes him over the edge.  That was before Beckett had the pretty 20 number, but...

by APV on Sep 24, 2007 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Thanks for the article; question also on why
FYI, I did a comparison between CC and Beckett the other night. This data does not include their last start each:

Against Top Pitchers

CC 6-3, 3 ND
Beat Burnett, Verlander twice, Johan 3 times; Lost to Verlander, Meche, and Blanton; ND - Harang, J Shields, Bannister

Beckett 5-2, 2 ND
Beat Hudson, Peavy, Halladay, Guthrie, Wang; Lost to Carmona, Bedard; ND - Guthrie, Pettite

Against Mediocre Pitchers

CC 4-3, 1 ND
Beat Silva, Lieber, Gaudin, Robertson; Lost to Matsuzaka, Garza, Greinke; ND - Garland

Beckett 5-3
Beat Loewen, Gaudin, D Davis, Batista, Garland; Lost to Francis, Litsch, Clemens

Against Bad Pitchers

CC 8-1, 4 ND
Beat Contreras 2, E Santana 2, Burres, de la Rosa, JP Howell, Loe; Lost to Carlyle; ND - E Jackson, Padilla, Baek, Bonderman

Beckett 9-1, 1 ND
Beat Od Perez, Jeff Weaver, E Santana, Karstens, V Zambrano, Sowers, JP Howell, Contreras, Olson; Lost to Tejeda; ND - E Santana

Between the two looks like a tossup overall to me.

Average Game score for the two (this stat does not recognize wins): Beckett 58, CC 58, (Carmona was a 56).

Again neck and neck.

The one thing I will give to CC is that he only got to face an NL squad 3 times (Harang CIN, Carlyle ATL, Lieber PHI). While Beckett got 4 cracks at an NL lineup (Davis AZ, Francis COL, Hudson ATL, Peavy SD) but had tougher SP going against him.

Other comparisons:

Against Top AL offenses (NYY, DET, BOS, LAA, CLE, TEX, SEA): CC 5-2, 2 ND; Beckett 6-2, 2 ND, again very even.

Adjusted ERA+ has Bekeet at 145 and CC at 139.

All in all, this is a toss-up.

CC

by talonk on Sep 24, 2007 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
I remember my excitement the day in 1986 when the Indians drafted 11 year old flamethrow, Paul Rigdon.

correction: Rigdon was drafted in '96.  This storyline started with Bud Black in '88.

by Matt in LA on Sep 23, 2007 7:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Ha!  Thanks for the correction ... how embarassing.

by Jay on Sep 23, 2007 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
I absolutely love this s__t; like tracing Omar back to Bob Owchinko...  Thank you, thank you!

by stuart dean on Sep 23, 2007 7:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Informative article.  Does Wedge have a better chance to win the manager of the year award than CC does of winning the Cy Young or Victor the MVP? Does it seem that everything is slanted towards NY, Boston, and Bristol, Connecticut?

by LAIndianfan on Sep 23, 2007 8:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Manager and Exec of the year are voted on by their peers, and I'm not aware that they show any particular bias.  Wedge was runner-up in 2005 and Shapiro won that year.

I would say Wedge is the favorite, because no other AL team can be said to have overperformed.  Some folks are saying Manuel could in it in the NL.

I wouldn't be surprised if Cashman won this year, for sticking to his guns and not blinking when the team was tanking, though it would be stupid if he did.

by Jay on Sep 23, 2007 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
I'd say Wedge is close to a lock for AL Manager of the Year.  They usually give it to managers of teams that are both good and surprising (based on the previous year).  Cleveland fits that model better than anyone.  I can see an argument for Seattle (didn't Hargrove retire mid-year) and Toronto (who has actually regressed since last year).  
Cleveland is far more compelling than either of those teams, mostly because they are significantly better, and every other over .500 team was good (or was in the Boston) last year as well.

I feel that this is the one award that they do not   slant towards NY/BOS.  It's hard to win an award whose recipients generally lead teams that come out of nowhere when you play in Boston or NY.

- Jake

by jakesinger777 on Sep 23, 2007 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Torre may get some run because of where the Yankees were early in the season.

And while we're talking about awards, what about Fausto Carmona for Comeback Player of the Year?

by Ryan on Sep 24, 2007 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
I almost feel as if Carmona has been too good to get the Comeback Player Award.  I know that makes no sense, but I just feel as if Carmona's season will make most people forget he was 1-10 last season and just think he is a rookie or something close to a rookie.

by APV on Sep 24, 2007 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

A recent MinorLeagueBall thread seems to agree
with you for pretty much the same reason.

Hello APV,

In this MinorLeagueBall thread, they too thought that Carmona hadn't been good enough before to get real consideration for the "Comeback Player of the Year" award over other candidates like Carlos Pena or even Zack Greinke.

I reminded them that Carmona actually had a very good run as a setup man before faltering as the closer, so it's not entirely true that he was NEVER good before where he couldn't be worthy for the "Comeback Player of the Year" award, but I understood why they thought he might be a better candidate for the "Most Improved Player of the Year" award, though I'm not sure such an award exists at this time.  :-)

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Sep 25, 2007 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Whoops - sorry, I think I misinterpreted your
last post.

Hello APV,

Rereading your last post, I think I missed the part where you were suggesting that people would forget about Carmona's 1-10 season, rather than MinorLeagueBall posters thinking that Carmona wasn't good enough before to now be considered for Comeback Player of the Year - not exactly the same thing.

Sorry about that.

I think you both agree that Carmona probably won't get the award, but really for different reasons - again, sorry for the mix-up.

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Sep 25, 2007 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Whoops - sorry, I think I misinterpreted your
I don't see how he can ever forgive you for a mix-up like that.

by Jay on Sep 25, 2007 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
2002 was truly the worst of times (74-88, Manuel fired, Thome left) and the best of times for Cleveland (acuiring Perez, Francisco, Sizemore, Lee, Crisp, Blake, Hafner).

by APV on Sep 23, 2007 10:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Dec 2000 - Signed amateur Fausto Carmona.

Fuck* Yeah.

*pardon the game thread potty mouth, but seriously.

by Brick. on Sep 23, 2007 10:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Hard to believe I thought our "core" was going to be Gerut, Crisp and Bradley at one time. lol

It's a shame we didn't "hit" with a few of those players in the Robbie Alomar trade. We may have won the division title much earlier (2004) if we did.

by Toxicadam on Sep 23, 2007 10:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Hell, I remember reading once that the core was supposed to include an outfield of Milton Bradley, Alex Escobar, and Vernon Wells.  Still waiting to hear how that one turned out.  

by maledicta on Sep 24, 2007 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
I know it's because of how international signings shake out, but seeing Victor and Fausto listed as amateur signings made me chuckle a little.

by Pronk33 on Sep 23, 2007 10:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
It's after midnight and I'm still reading this post. POTY, no question.

by supermarioelia on Sep 24, 2007 12:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Reading this the thought came to me that there's no way I could handle the pressures of the GM job.

Shapiro & Antonelli conceived, planned, and reconceived the 2007 Tribe multiple times. Hats off to you both, gentlemen.

by ploni on Sep 24, 2007 1:20 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
AntoneTTi.  I don't mean to nitpick but a lot of people are making that mistake lately.

by nickjs21 on Sep 24, 2007 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
The "longest-tenured Indian"?

That would have to be the player who made the big-league roster first.

In other words, Westbrook, no?

by ploni on Sep 24, 2007 1:23 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Depends how you want to define it.

Lofton was the first to arrive in both the organization (the first time) and the big-league club and has spent the longest total time on the major league team -- more than eight years.

Victor has been in the organization the longest -- more than 11 years.

C.C. started (and won) his first game in the big leagues on April 8, 2001.  He's finishing his seventh full season in the majors.  He's been with the Indians organization for 9+ years, which is longer than Lofton, but not as long as Victor.

Jake first appeared for the Indians as a reliever three days later, April 11, 2001 -- he pitched 3.1 in relief of a Dave Burba disaster, giving up one run while inducing groundouts from Carlos Lee, Frank Thomas, Paul Konerko, and Royce Clayton twice.

by Jay on Sep 24, 2007 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
By the way, were any of those draft picks above due to compensation for some free agent that we let go?

by talonk on Sep 24, 2007 11:52 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Jay: why did you leave Lee Stevens off of the Montreal trade?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/colonba01.shtml

Also, is the Luis Rivera from the Finley trade the 1B coach now (and the guy who translates for Fausto)?

by JulioBernazard on Sep 24, 2007 1:56 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
I am pretty sure the guy we got for Finley had the last name Garcia. That is without looking it up

by Roger Dorn on Sep 24, 2007 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/finlech01.shtml

You're right: Luis Garcia.

Sometimes, B-Ref's transaction page is not aligning with this post. Jay has "Luis Rivera" where he should have "Luis Garcia."

But the post rocks, nonetheless.

by JulioBernazard on Sep 24, 2007 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Corrected both things, thanks.

I have to admit, I had no idea how much people were going to just sit and stare at this thing.  I guess it's a nice little toy for the obsessive.

by Jay on Sep 24, 2007 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
I shudder to think about how many mistakes I would have made trying to compile this before giving up in frustration.  It's all I can do just to keep up with the name changes to the Angels franchise.  Kudos.

by Fiddlesticks on Sep 24, 2007 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Any time. Nice work on the list.

[should be here, not @Fiddlesticks.]

by JulioBernazard on Sep 24, 2007 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
I wonder if anyone wants to try to figure out who we traded to the Mets to get Kyle Washington?  I couldn't find it, but I didn't look for that long.  It's the only missing piece of the puzzle.

by Jay on Sep 24, 2007 4:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
I'll check my Cleveland Indians History book when I get home, but I suspect this was considered a minor league transaction as Kyle was in A- that year, so I don't think it will appear in the book.

by talonk on Sep 24, 2007 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
I'm starting to think there was no trade.  I had the thought that he'd been the PTBNL in a 1990 trade between the two teams.  Problem is, I can't find any indication that the Indians and Mets made any trades during that time period.

He was drafted in 1988 and put up mediocre numbers in short-season ball both that year and the next.  In his third pro season, 1990, he was sent to full-season low-A and put up relatively poor numbers yet again -- and only played in 63 games, about half the schedule.  That suggests an injury.

So I'm beginning to think the Mets released him after 1990, and the Indians picked him up as a minor league free agent.  It seems more likely that those two transactions would go unrecorded than a trade.

By the way, the kid mashed his way through A-ball, low and then high, in his one full season with the Indians in 1991 -- at age 21.  But though he always had great walk rates, he never really found his stroke again after that season.

by Jay on Sep 25, 2007 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
As I suspected, the Indian's Encyclopedia only listed "major" transactions, so nothing for Kyle Washington in there.

But it did have the 10 best trades the Tribe ever did (FYI this was printed in 1996):

1 1916 SP Sad Sam Jones, 3B Fred Thomas and $55k to Boston for Tris Speaker
2 1946 C Sherman Loller and 2B Roy Mack to Yankees for SP Gene Bearden, Al Gettel and OF Hal Peck
3 1948 P Joe Haynes and Eddie Klieman and 1B Eddie Robinson to Senators for P Early Wynn and 1B Mickey Vernon
4 1971 P Sam McDowell to Giants for P Gaylord Perry and SS Frank Duffy
5 1946 P Allie Reynolds to Yankees for 2B Joe Gordon and 3B Eddie Bockman
6 1989 OF Joe Carter to Padres for C Sandy Alomar Jr, 3B Carlos Baerga, and OF Chris James
7 1910 OF Bris Lord to Athletics for IF Moris Rath and OF Shoeless Joe Jackson
8 1919 OF Broggi Roth to Athletics for 3B Larry Gardner, OF Charlie Jamieson and P Elmer Myers
9 1991 C Eddie Taubensee and P Willie Blair for OF Kenny Lofton and 2B Dave Rohde
10 1978 P Jim Kern and SS Larvell Blanks to Rangers for P Len Barker and OF Bobby Bonds

And now the 10 worst:

1 1960 OF Rocky Colavito to Tigers for OF Harvey Kuenn
2 1960 1B Norm Cash to Tigers for 3B Steve Demeter
3 1957 P Early Wynn and OF Al Smith for OF Minnie Minoso and 3B Fred Hatfield
4 1974 3B Pedro Guerrero to Dodgers for P Bruce Ellingsen
5 1950 1B Mickey Vernon to Senators for P Dick Weik
6 1965 P Tommy John, C John Romano and OF Tommy Agee to White Sox (with Athletics) for OF Rocky Colavito and C Camilo Carreon.
7 1978 P Dennis Eckersley and C Fred Kendall to Red Sox for P Rick Wise, Mike Paxton, 3B Ted Cox and C Bo Diaz
8 1915 OF Joe Jackson to White Sox for OF Braggo Roth, Larry Chappell, P Ed Klepfer and $31.5k
9 1969 P Sonny Siebert Vicente Romo and C Joe Azcue to Red Sox for OF/1B Ken "the Hawk" Harrelson and P Dick Ellsworth and Juan Pizarro
10 1988 SS/2B Julio Franco to Rangers for 1B Pete O'Brien, 2b Jerry Browne, and OF Oddibe McDowell

Just an FYI for all.

by talonk on Sep 24, 2007 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Man you better hope Judah doesn't see this - he's real sensitive about that Eckersley thing.
LeBron must GO!

by mauichuck on Sep 25, 2007 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
This demonstrates just how hard it is for a small to medium market team like the Indians to acquire talent that is necessary to win a division.

What's also telling are these moves in drafting or signing players as amateurs/non-marque free agents.

Jul 1996 - Signed amateur Victor Martinez
Jun 1998 - Drafted C.C. Sabathia and Ryan Drese
Apr 1999 - Signed amateur Jhonny Peralta
Dec 2000 - Signed amateur Fausto Carmona
Jan 2002 - Signed amateur Rafael Perez
Jun 2002 - Drafted Ben Francisco
Dec 2002 - Signed free agent Casey Blake (released by Twins)
Jan 2003 - Signed free agent Rafael Betancourt (released by Red Sox)
Jun 2003 - Drafted Ryan Garko, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Aaron Laffey
Jun 2004 - Drafted Jeremy Sowers
Jun 2005 - Drafted Jensen Lewis

It seems that the FO has done a good job of keeping the talent that they have been able to get while trading others to get better value back in the deal.

If Shapiro doesn't win executive of the year again, there ought to be an investigation.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Sep 24, 2007 5:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
I definitely thought about what kind of ridicule might have been incited by the acquisitions of Blake and Betancourt.

Even Baseball Prospectus actually mocked the Indians for dallying with Betancourt, then considered a three-time loser as a prospect:

"Wow, another Raffy Betancourt comeback? He's gotta be in Roman numerals territory by now, the kitsch of talking about Betancourt 2.0 is so 2001. Like, totally."

No, seriously.

by Jay on Sep 24, 2007 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Comments like this are why I stopped reading BPro about 3 years ago.

by mrich on Sep 25, 2007 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Awesome job.

I kept looking for "Kevin Bacon" in there somewhere.

by CaptainEasy on Sep 24, 2007 8:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Ask and you shall receive:

Trot Nixon was in Fever Pitch (2005) with Eric Bruno Borgman
Eric Bruno Borgman was in Mystic River (2003) with Kevin Bacon

by Roger Dorn on Sep 24, 2007 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
Jeez, and I was so pissed when they traded Bud Black.

by FranklinScott on Sep 25, 2007 1:55 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
This is a great great list.  Many thanks for the work that went into it.  I will print it for reference over the next month.  Only thing that's missing is Part B of the grand strategy, the part where we salted opponents' bullpens with crummy relief pitchers so our batters could feast in late innings!

(and maybe there is a subliminal thing there, too, with opposing pitchers who subconsciously think pitching to Indians = batting practice)

by sullidav on Sep 25, 2007 7:22 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Timeline: Acquiring the New Champs
I'll add to the kudos - - nice work, Jay!  This was a fun read.

by Joe Charboneau on Sep 26, 2007 12:49 PM EDT reply actions  

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