Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twins 0
Recap
Box Score
Win Probability @ Fangraphs
Highest WPA:
CC Sabathia .329
Ben Francisco .079
Travis Hafner .069
Lowest WPA:
Franklin Gutierrez -.037
Chris Gomez -.025
Casey Blake -.004
That was quite a reversal. A day after playing one of the worst games of the season, the Indians beat Johan Santana for the fifth time, dominating the Twins in virtually all aspects of the game. Everything worked, whether it be starting Victor Martinez with Ryan Garko at the plate, getting runners home with less than two outs, or even sitting Grady Sizemore.
CC Sabathia was great again, going eight innings on exactly 100 pitches, allowing seven base runners on six hits and a walk. Of course, the Twins lineup included Rondell White and Nick Punto, who apparently were in the lineup because they were right-handed.
Even in the era of expanded divisional play, it's rare to face a starting pitcher six times in a season. It's even rarer still to beat him five times, no matter how good or how bad he is. It hasn't happened to a Twins pitcher since 1974. This is probably on the same plane as the 2006 grand slam bonanza: it's a great accomplishment, but it's not happening again.
Six up. Twenty-five to play.
Next Up: Laffey vs. Slowey, 8:10 PM
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Re: -even: Indians 5, Twins 0
Re: -even: Indians 5, Twins 0
In a perfect world, Trot Nixon would have been DFA'd or pulled a Dellucci and allowed for Ben to stay with us the entire time.
I do NOT want to see this guy being traded in the off-season. But, the reality is that he may very well be.
Re: -even: Indians 5, Twins 0
Re: -even: Indians 5, Twins 0
The Kids Are Alright!
by JulioBernazard on Sep 4, 2007 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: -even: Indians 5, Twins 0
That being said...
Francisco's turning 26 in October. He just got done dominating AAA (which he should have done, by the way, considering his age and experience). There's little the Indians can find out by sending him back to AAA. So they should definitely explore dealing Jason Michaels if they can get a good return because they have a cheaper and possibly better option in Francisco.
Re: -even: Indians 5, Twins 0
So why not Guterierez instead of Dellucci too? Mostly for the same reasons.
Course I'd still like to keep Kenny - for nostolgia purposes mostly - but the boy still can play.
Re: -even: Indians 5, Twins 0
It's a given that Nixon will be gone, and a good chance Lofton won't even play next season.
The reason I'd advocate both Dellucci and Francisco on the same roster is reducing your risk. Dellucci if playing up his career averages is a decent starter. Besides, with his platoon splits, it gives a natural opportunity for Francisco to get at least semi-regular playing time. There's no need to make a rash move when you can have the two players compete for a spot during the season.
Re: -even: Indians 5, Twins 0
Re: -even: Indians 5, Twins 0
I disagree that Kenny might shut it down next year: someone will be willing to give him a look.
by JulioBernazard on Sep 4, 2007 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: -even: Indians 5, Twins 0
by JulioBernazard on Sep 4, 2007 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: -even: Indians 5, Twins 0
How did we get from "Michaels is replaceable" to "Michaels stinks?"
Re: -even: Indians 5, Twins 0
by JulioBernazard on Sep 4, 2007 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: -even: Indians 5, Twins 0
by JulioBernazard on Sep 4, 2007 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: -even: Indians 5, Twins 0
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
"Boy, these guys are NEVER going to be happy, are they?"
lol
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
That also means that here's a 7% chance that we'll lose the divsion and a 3% chance we'll miss the playoffs.
From a Clevelander's persective those odds are still too high. Fans from somewhere else just wouldn't understand.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
by ghost of omar on Sep 4, 2007 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
by JulioBernazard on Sep 4, 2007 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
It doesn't work like that, logically speaking, but they're massively in our favor nonetheless.
by homelytourist on Sep 4, 2007 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
My point was, odds massively in our favor or not, if there's a team that can defy those odds and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, you can probably see Lake Erie from its home stadium. We are, by no means, out of the woods yet.
For that reason, keep the header to this web site as it is. Who cares what visitors from other cities think. Do their teams hold some of the longest championship droughts in each of the three major sports? They don't understand, and they should hope and pray that they never will.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Regarding the odds, it's obviously looking like a lock. But we're never going to see a lock any better than we had in 2005, and it wasn't enough. If we were three games up with three games to go, that still wouldn't be as much of a lock as we had a week before the end of the 2005 season.
So for "feeling damned good about the situation," we're already really deep into that territory. As for anything more than that ... the only lock is a clinch.
by Jay on Sep 4, 2007 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
I don't think we're really all that special, but I never knew the trauma of those Browns and Cavs losses, so that's probably why.
Not everyone here suffers Clevaland sports equally. Some people even root for the Dallas Cowboys! I kid you not.
by homelytourist on Sep 4, 2007 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
One of the only good things I can say about Philly sports fans is, they really hate the Cowboys.
by Jay on Sep 4, 2007 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
A) Booed Mike Schmidt
B) Booed Santa Claus
C) Thrown Batteries at J.D. Drew
D) Booed Bobby Abreu an inning after hitting a 3 run homerun to take the lead, for bobbling a ball and throwing a guy out at home.
and my favorite:
E) At a Phillies game, allowed me to start the "Bring in Mesa" chant. I had the whole right field bleacher area doing it, and when they brought him in we booed the $hiz out of him.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
- Yankees
- Cowboys
- Lakers
- Notre Dame
Working in Philly has given me a new appreciation for their fans. They maybe even nuttier than Cleveland fans. One of my colleagues who grew up on the Southside of Philly gave me 40 minutes of why Mike Schmitt isn't a real Philly and would never make his, or any other Philly fan's, list of all-time great Phillys.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
by new zealand tribe fan on Sep 4, 2007 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
by new zealand tribe fan on Sep 4, 2007 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Either way you can't get Toohey's in Hawaii. Pretty sure you can get it in NZ - right?
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
You are heading this way? If you need somewhere to stay in Auckland, no problem putting you up. Goes for anyother LGTer.
by new zealand tribe fan on Sep 5, 2007 5:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Looks like I'll either be working in Arkansas or Kazakhstan - pretty much indistinguishable one from the other - probably won't be getting to NZ any time soon. But I do appreciate the invite.
Same here - you get to Maui you've got a place to stay.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
This is just recent precedent. Doesn't necessarily indicate that we have a 97% chance this season, (although--conincidentally--we do have roughly those odds, follow?)
by homelytourist on Sep 4, 2007 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
I'm agnositc when it comes to the Sports Gods.
by homelytourist on Sep 4, 2007 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
As you and I have discussed in person, I think it's arrogant in a way for someone to attribute to luck any effect that has not been otherwise quantified and correlated as of the present time.
But "choking" has even less credibility when it comes to a season-long record. How many times did they choke exactly? Five? Ten? Twenty? And did they choke in individual plate appearances or over the course of an entire game?
Just as with the "Wins" and "Losses" credited to starting pitchers, people like to talk about a player "knowing how to win" or "choking," but it's always at a distance, looking across a whole season. Whenever you scrutinize it down to an individual game, it falls apart completely.
So go ahead ... let's have that list of the specific instances where the 2006 team choked.
For what it's worth, my own "official" explanation was that the relievers sucked and the entire infield simultaneously became incompetent. Both of these will open the door both to bad luck and to things that merely look like bad luck -- BABIP doesn't make that distinction for us.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
And yes, luck was envoked by one of the self appointed stats mavens - I didn't just pull it outta my ass. But I gotta admit I don't have a link.
My official/unofficial explanation is there is no explanation. The Indians record is 2-3 standard deviations outside the norm - these things happen. Much like Garko's performance in the majors and your hoped for performance by Marte - once he gets up the big club.
But ya gotta admit a lossing record with an almost 100 run bulge is pretty weird.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
If the "God hates Cleveland" talk is old school, then yeah, I'm new school. Otherwise I'm just a highly interested fan.
by homelytourist on Sep 4, 2007 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
By the way, Pie Traynor couldn't tell his glove from a brick, and neither could anyone who watched him play third base.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
And I thought it'd be a good idea for him to just shut it down for a while, so I will gladly eat that crow.
by homelytourist on Sep 5, 2007 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
And it's not that I'm anti-stats - hell I use stats in my profession every day. There are two things that stick in my craw about how they're used in the baseball world. One, the users are sloppy. No standard deviation, no confidence interval, no way to check precision and accuracy. Sloppy. And two, there used uncritically. A while back Ryan quoted some study that purported to show that $4M in free agent salary equated to 1 win above replacement. This shoulda been pretty easy to check - only nobody did any reality checking - they just swallowed in whole. Sloppy. This kinda anlysis would get you laughed outta the meeting room in my business.
But it looks like we're headed for good times, even after all the hand wringing in late July/early August. Who woulda guessed?
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
It is true that without confidence intervals or an understanding of deviation, all baseball stats should be taken with a grain of salt, and offered up with at least a dash of humility. A sense of arrogance is what results when those armed with stats are answering those armed with only their subjective observations. And whatever you can say about laughable stats, I can promise you that subjective observations are way way way more overrated by their offerers than stats.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
I'm not saying that Ankiel is/was a lock to make it as a major league outfielder. I don't think anyone - including his mom - thought Rick Ankiel would have the kinda major league start he's had so far. But ya gotta give him a little better than above average shot.
See, it's easy to quote stats but its hard to evaluate players. It takes a lot more skill than calculating which number is bigger than another.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Which is why I'm just a blogger, not a well-paid baseball executive.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Worst. World Champions. Ever.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
(Former STL resident and Cards fan)
by smtp on Sep 5, 2007 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Huh...
by Rusnakjd @ Let's Go Tribe! on Sep 4, 2007 12:28 AM EDT reply actions
Re: Huh...
What a douche bag.
by homelytourist on Sep 4, 2007 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
2007 - $2M
2008 - $2.15M
2009 - $2.6M club option
He's very cheap. You can get most contract information from Cot's Baseball Contracts.
by APV on Sep 4, 2007 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven:
It was awesome to see scores of people dawning Tribe gear again, scoreboard watching and talking baseball - talking Indians baseball. It was great to see two robust crowds at the games I attended and really excellent to see the place go nuts when Casey hit that double. I won't get back to the Jake for the rest of '07 so those will be my strongest memories for this season no matter the eventual outcome.
Still looking forward to next week's series on the Southside though to close out my season at the ballpark(s).
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven:
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven:
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven:
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
by Gradyforpresident on Sep 4, 2007 1:44 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
SportsNation Rob Neyer: Well, okay. But in terms of what the voters look at -- wins, losses, ERA, strikeouts -- there's really not much separating him from Beckett and Lackey, not to mention Haren and Escobar, both of whom have sub-3.00 ERA's. The award probably goes to whoever's lucky enough to win 20 games.
Tom (Stratford): Looks like you were right about the Indians. How much does Borowski put them at risk in the playoffs? I know the closer position may be a little over-rated, but they don't strike me as a team that's going to have many 8 runs games that make the closer moot in the playoffs.
SportsNation Rob Neyer: I touched on this in the blog last week ... Borowski's obviously not a top closer, but I do think he's somewhat better than his lousy ERA. I also think we might see him demoted between now and October if he has a few more rough outings. But you know, it's not like Betancourt and Rafael Perez aren't pitching important innings already, and the Indians are not loaded with great relievers.
Brad (Columbus, OH): I know this is still early, but let's say that the Red Sox, Indians, Angels, and Yankees all make the playoffs in the AL. Who's your early pick?
SportsNation Rob Neyer: I like the Indians is Hafner's healthy, and the Red Sox otherwise. But they're all quite good, and none would be surprising World Champs.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
by kov on Sep 4, 2007 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
by ASP on Sep 4, 2007 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Boston vs Wild Card
Indians vs Angels
I think the Sox are going to win it all this year, at least on paper which is of course...paper
by world dictator on Sep 4, 2007 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
- CHW nearly coughed up a 15 game lead to the Indians and limped into the playoffs. No one gave them a snowball's chance of doing shit in the playoffs. Wiped out BOS in 3, Angels in 5 and Astros in 4.
- DET limps into playoffs getting passed by MIN on the way there. Everyone begins crowing NYY and DET beats them in 4 and OAK in 4. STL limps into playoffs worse than DET, barely gets by the Mets and are penciled in to be swept by DET in 4. They beat DET handily.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
For the first time I can remember, the Indians seem to have a roster better suited to the postseason than the regular season. The rotation is deep yet still heavily weighted to the top two spots. The bullpen is extremely top-heavy, which again favors us in the postseason despite the shaky closer.
We'll have a deep bench that will lend itself to all kinds of situational nonsense. Finally, we have an outfield that is composed almost entirely of competent center fielders, which significantly curbs our vulnerability to wild variance, i.e., the fine line between outs and doubles.
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
Re: Game One Hundred Thirty-Seven: Indians 5, Twin
by Jay on Sep 5, 2007 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

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