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Sabathia rules out contract extension

Through a statement posted on his official web site, C.C. Sabathia has ruled out further negotiations on a contract extension until after the 2008 season.

There will be time after the season for the Indians and my representatives to discuss my contract status.  I remain hopeful that these discussions will result in a contract extension that will keep me with the franchise for many years to come.

Let me be really clear about this:  This means C.C. will not be a Cleveland Indian after 2008.  Despite his polite encouragement, there is no real rational reason to believe he will choose to re-sign with the Indians once he is eligible for free agency at the end of the season.  This announcement also contradicts directly his prior statements, in which he said he intended to engage with his agents in the process of working out a deal once he reported to Spring Training.

Even the most elite players often opt to extend contracts with their current teams before they reach free agency, passing up significant potential money in the process.  While it would have been an uncharacteristic risk, the Indians conceivably could have extended C.C.'s contract along the lines of other top pitchers in similar circumstances.  Indeed, the Indians reportedly made an opening offer to Sabathia in the range of $70 million over four additional years, ending in 2012, an offer more generous than those accepted by Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay, Mark Buerhle and Jake Peavy over the past 18 months.

It is unknown whether Sabathia's agents ever seriously engaged the Indians in negotiations after that initial offer.  No subsequent offer, counter-offer or discussion was ever reported.  What is known is that the Indians will not be serious bidders in a free agent market which in Sabathia's case conceivably will exceed $150 million.  And hometown discounts, to the extent that they are ever given, are rarely given by major players who are already looking at competing offers from other teams.

If Sabathia had any serious intention of accepting a shorter (and thus smaller) contractual commitment from the Indians, at any time, there is no conceivable reason why he wouldn't instruct his attorneys to strike the best deal possible right now.  At this moment, his value is at its peak, and he faces significant risk of a devaluing (or even career-ending) injury in the coming year.  He simply stands far more to gain by re-signing with the Indians now rather than doing so at the end of the season, and the Indians' bottom line is not going to move much in that time.  The inescapable conclusion, therefore, is that he does not intend to settle for a shorter contractual commitment with the Indians, now or at any future point.

So unless Sabathia unexpectedly does a 180 on his negotiating stance mid-year, he really is as good as gone.  That being the only reasonable supposition, the Indians are now obliged to consider seriously any trade offers involving Sabathia over the next month, and one can assume that they will take seriously any offer that preserves their overall ability to compete in 2008.

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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
May as well win the whole thing this year, then.

by maledicta on Feb 14, 2008 2:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
This is not unexpected.  However, I think Shapiro would be willing to accept an AL pennant, with a chance at the WS title for the 1st time in 60 years, in 2008 in exchange for letting CC walk at the end of the season.  If CC is moved while the Indians are still in contention, the lost attendance and interest may be far more costly than the benefit of what is received in trade.  If the Indians fall out of contention, then it would make sense to trade him to a contender.

CC will get a chance early to show if he is still improving.  His 2nd start of the season will be in Oakland (essentially his home-town team), where he has been nototiously unsuccessful during his career.

by palcal on Feb 14, 2008 2:38 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
+1 . . . except for that little 'aside' paragraph at the end, which makes no sense whatsoever.

by DocNo on Feb 14, 2008 5:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Ride him hard, put him away wet.

by pdx on Feb 14, 2008 5:34 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Yep.  I think this is why Shapiro is not sounding any alarm bells.  The Indians still have one last hurrah with a pitcher in his prime.  

by Spidey on Feb 14, 2008 8:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Nolan Ryan's age 27 season?  332 IP.  The bar has been set, CC.

by mkwng on Feb 14, 2008 9:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
 I was thinking the same thing after reading the article

by tribe204854 on Feb 14, 2008 11:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
This is a really tough call for the FO. I dont envy their position.

While they may see some appealing offers early on, there is always going to be the temptation that one of the big spenders will be a couple games out around the all-star break and willing to shell out prospects and some show-ready talent for an impact pitcher like CC.

CC just moved you into check Shapiro, tough move.

As General Manager of this team, I demand to know when I'm getting a start.

by bigbrabbs on Feb 14, 2008 6:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Well it doesn't really bother me that he's going after the money and contract length.  However, I yelled "BOOOOOO" at my computer when I read this.

by Rachie on Feb 14, 2008 7:07 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Well what can I say?  I wasn't holding out much hope for a contract extension, mostly cuz a "reasonable" extension would probably be a bad deal for CC and a bad deal for the Tribe.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 14, 2008 7:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Hey Chuck, you want that six pack in bottles or cans?  

by NickFantana on Feb 14, 2008 8:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Kegs bro, kegs
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 14, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Yeah I've gotta hand it to you. You definitely called this.

by supermarioelia on Feb 14, 2008 10:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Is it possible that he said this just so he has a good reason to not have to answer questions about it all season?  I would have to believe that agents & FO are still talking but CC wants to concentrate on pitching...

by stuart dean on Feb 14, 2008 7:49 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Dude, CC's just not that into you (us).

by rog on Feb 14, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
This team and this front office have never been about betting the farm on one player, and if we were to commit 17-18 million to C.C. over a course of 4-5 years, that's what we'd be doing (barring a dramatic increase in payroll).  This should leave us with additional flexibility to shore up our corner positions, or to make a trade mid-season to get a number of high-level prospects in return.  The Yankees may not put together the same package they did for Santana, but that was the offseason.  Middle of a pennant race, looking up at Boston, pitching staff sucking wind, jobs on the line, let's see how close they come.  I'll bet they could be squeezed.  Of course it depends primarily on whether or not we're competing at that point.

by maledicta on Feb 14, 2008 7:53 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Trade him. May-ish to June-ish would be great. Maybe Miller will be ready by then, or maybe Cliff will have pulled his head out of his compound noun. I will admit though, that

Fausto
Westbrook
Laffey
Cliff Lee
Byrd
Miller?

does not scare anybody.

by gte619n on Feb 14, 2008 7:58 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Very well stated Jay.  

It's time to look to a future that does not include C.C. in a Tribe uniform as he has made it very clear as to his long term intentions.

Business is business.  Trade him to the highest bidder, preferably a NL team, but I wouldn't preclude a trade to ANY team if the Indians get a great offer.

by SpringTrainingFun on Feb 14, 2008 8:11 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Ya know those pinstripes are slimming.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 14, 2008 8:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
How about:

CC to the Dodgers
Kershaw and Kemp to the Tribe?

by gte619n on Feb 14, 2008 8:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Find a way to include Broxton in the deal and I'll sign off right now.  

by Fundamentals on Feb 14, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
As far as I'm concerned they absolutely HAVE to trade him, especially since he did them the favor of coming right out and saying it rather than continuing to "negotiate" which, as Jay points out above, may not have ever occurred in earnest.  

Can we lift the swearing ban for the day?  CC has really broken my heart with this.

by NickFantana on Feb 14, 2008 8:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Couldn't agree more with your sentence, especially about the swearing. I actually feel sick here.

by supermarioelia on Feb 14, 2008 9:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I'll probably be posting on this diary sporadically throughout the day since my head is spinning right now from the news.

My first reaction though is frustration at not even knowing who to be most upset with since we have no clue what the last offer was. Is Shap being cheap? Is C.C. demanding too much? Of course based on how the negotiations have gone so far we'll have no idea what the answers are until he either signs or is traded. So for now we just sit in limbo being mad at the world in general.

by supermarioelia on Feb 14, 2008 9:14 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
No, I don't think anyone inside the Cleveland organization is beign cheap - just realistic.  So in the end CC is no different than Belle or Manny or Thome.  

Like I said before, $20M per year is just too damn much money for anyone on the Tribe's payroll - and CC will get every nickel of that as a free agent.  But it's not too much for half a dozen other ML teams. Here's all you really need to know.  Cleveland's the 24th largest market in America and shrinking.  There's no way in hell the Indians can generate the same revenue as the top five metro areas.  Simple economics.

Like Michael Corleone usta say,"it's just business".

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 14, 2008 9:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Well, that's not an entirely accurate statement.  You must look at the COMBINED statistical area to see Cleveland's market size, which is really 15th in the nation.  And Cleveland's potential market outside of the CSA is strong as well, since the state has fairly dense population even in the extreme outer reaches, perhaps all the way into Columbus market (Canton, for instance, is not in the CSA yet would clearly be part of the Indians market.  Even Youngstown could be fertile territory since the Pirates are not natural rivals).  But, yeah, I still get your point.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_of_United_States_Combined_Statistical_Areas

by randallhank on Feb 15, 2008 2:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
OK, say you're estimate is better.  Now we're 15th at just under 3M, while the NY area is a little over 21M.  The over top eight are at least twice as large as Cleveland - and they're all growing while the Cleveland CSA is still shrinking.

No, anyway you slice it we can't compete economically with the Big Boyz.  We gotta out smart 'em that's all.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 15, 2008 7:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I think we need to hold onto him this year and go for it.

by Roger Dorn on Feb 14, 2008 9:29 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
With CC's stated intention of not signing a contract extension, he will not have nearly as much trade value. The Twins were able to get what they did for Santana as the Mets were basically trading for 1 year of Santana plus exclusive bargaining rights.

The tribe cannot get Philip Hughes and another prospect for CC. They can't even get just Hughes.

CC has the most value for a team competing for the playoffs. He only gets traded if the tribe falls out of contention in 08. And I don't want to think about that.  

Jay, you have been correct on the CC situation for over 2 years now. I'm impressed.

by oxforddave on Feb 14, 2008 9:43 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I agree, Sabathia's situation is different than Santana because he is not currently open to negotiations like Santana was.

Unfortunately, the Santana trade screwed things up on a second front as well, setting a poor precedent for what the Tribe would get back in a trade (not Hughes).  That really bothers me and was my biggest fear once NY and Boston took their initial offers off the table for Santana.  

It's not that the front office moved too late in negotiations (I think they did as much as possible, both in terms of the contract and the timing), but I think the Santana trade may have thrown a wrench in their plans.    

Before Santana, I would have traded Sabathia, but now I say hold on to him and go for it in 2008.

by Pronk33 on Feb 15, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I would not assume that C.C. won't discuss an extension with another team right now, it would just have to be something that approached Santana's numbers.  Essentially, he's done the same thing that Santana did, he just turned down a potentially record-setting extension with his team.

Hughes was always a ridiculous expectation for Santana or Sabathia, in my view, and it's not at all clear that the Yankees would have gone through with it at any point.  What really got screwed up is that the two biggest rich-sucker teams, the Mets and Mariners, have already gotten their aces.  Those two teams being out of play alone makes it far less likely that we'll get a truly tempting offer.

by Jay on Feb 15, 2008 8:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Oh, and happy valentine's day.

Sigh.

by afh4 on Feb 14, 2008 9:45 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Oh I cannot WAIT for March 13th to be within feet of this man. He'll definitely be getting a piece of my mind.

Feel free to reply with comments you too would like thrown CC's way. PG-rated of course.

by supermarioelia on Feb 14, 2008 9:53 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
"Hey CC, I'm glad you have a severly elevated risk of heart disease."

by KevinV on Feb 14, 2008 10:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
One other thing. If CC remains healthy and pitches the way he is capable of pitching (e.g. the last 2 years), he will obtain the largest contract ever for a pitcher. I really think this is big motivation for CC.

My open letter to CC:
CC, if you want the cash that you believe that you are worth, you might try to perform in the playoffs this year.

by oxforddave on Feb 14, 2008 9:54 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
". . . the largest contract ever for a pitcher. I really think this is big motivation for CC."

Isn't C.C. tight with LeBron? Doesn't LeBron speak openly about his goal to be the wealthiest man alive?

by ploni on Feb 14, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
One of my first thoughts about this is that LeBron is a goner also. I guess Chuck will be happy that the Cavs will spend another 10 years below .500.

by oxforddave on Feb 14, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Don't mischaracterize my intentions here.  I want LeBron gone - out of Cleveland - and the sooner the better.  The only way I can see him leaving before his contract is up is if he demands a trade.  A think a year or two of him working his butt off and losing might- might - motivate him to demand a trade.  That's the only reason I want the Cavs to lose.

Like the general once said, "sometimes ya gotta destroy a village to save it."

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 15, 2008 8:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Hey Chuck, just my two cents here but when you're quoting US strategies from Vietnam to augment your sports philosophies, it might be time to take a step back.

by NickFantana on Feb 15, 2008 9:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
See Nick I was trying - subtly  - to underscore the ridiculousness of my position.  Self-destructive hate is one of my family traditions.

I guess subtleness is not my strong suit - or sarcasm for that matter.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 15, 2008 9:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Now I'm just shocked that you stepped out of character and took me serious.  I was just trying to give you a hard time.  And prove that I knew enough to know what foreign policy debacle that quote came from.

For what it's worth, I haven't watched a second of Cavs basketball since LeBron wore that hat to the Indians game.  He and the team are dead to me, until he goes.  So as far as villages go, burn em all down.

by NickFantana on Feb 15, 2008 10:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
In Shaprio I trust.  Did we ever decide what type of deity he is?

by Thommy on Feb 14, 2008 9:59 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I'd like to think he's part of the Norse Pantheon.

by KevinV on Feb 14, 2008 10:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
If I had to say whose avatar he is, I think it would be Mímir.

"a primal deity in Norse mythology who was renowned for his knowledge and wisdom. "

Sounds about right to me.

by KevinV on Feb 14, 2008 10:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Well I think we all saw this one coming. It's still somewhat depressing to hear.
I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Feb 14, 2008 10:03 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
After dealing with the Belle, Manny, and Thome negotiations, I'd kinda resigned myself to this outcome, though it's still depressing to hear it. On the plus side, it does nothing to diminish our chances this year & as they say, flags fly forever.

And hey, pitchers and catchers report today, so let's bring on the actual baseball & stop thinking about all this depressing stuff. If CC goes 20-6 on the way to winning a World Series, I'll congratulate the guy & hope he sucks for the next team that signs him.

by zempf on Feb 14, 2008 10:05 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Why hope he sucks after that? Why can't we all just root for the guy to win it all with us this year and give him a fond farewell?

If it's simple economics, as many of you say, then C.C.'s decision is not reprehensible. I know I will always be rooting for him.

by Voltaire on Feb 14, 2008 10:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
No, I totally understand his decision & will still like the guy, but if he signs with the Yankees or the Red Sox I'll definitely be hoping he gives up 5 runs a game. Nothing against the guy, just rooting for the best interests of the Tribe in the end.

by zempf on Feb 14, 2008 10:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I have the simple rule that if you're a professional athlete making over 5 mil/yr and you leave my team for more money from another team (when we present you with an offer), you become nothing to me. And I boo you mercilessly. And may Jeebus have mercy on your soul.

by supermarioelia on Feb 14, 2008 10:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
So you are really close to hating, with a passion...Scott Elarton?

by Voltaire on Feb 14, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
When did we offer Scott Elarton over 5 mil and he bolted to another team? Am I forgetting something?

by supermarioelia on Feb 14, 2008 10:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
After '05 he signed with the Royals for $4 million. I'm pretty sure we entertained signing him to some sort of super-cheap deal but then the Royals wanted to sign our #5 guy as their ace, so...gone.

I know you're making a joke (but seriously communicating your views). Nonetheless, they seem kind of silly to me. That's all.

by Voltaire on Feb 14, 2008 10:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
And I realize you're looking into the future of Elarton's dominance out of the pen, followed by us being unable to match an offer of 5.5/yr from KC...and in that case, yes Elarton would join the list of the hated. I'm just a volatile guy.

by supermarioelia on Feb 14, 2008 10:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I've started typing this post 5 times, and every time what comes out is "I say we trade him."  Maybe it was the fan in me, but I held out hope, undiminished hope, that we'd be able to sign him.  This is obviously not going to happen now.  I don't know why I continue to expect that baseball players are any different than you or I in wanting that last buck for our "work".  Maybe it's because I see mid-market team after mid-market team able to sign players with the supposed hometown discount.  I mean, we got a bit of one with Pronk (who hopefully slimmed down/found the downstroke in his swing/reclaimed his mojo) so I really can't complain, but still.  I just want to see players I've rooted for have loyalty like I have loyalty.  

Really, I'm just sad.

Trade him and see if he'll waive that not going sign a contract before the end of the season nonsense.  The Tribe is just not offering "Fair market value."

F*$K!

Now that the Bedard bandwagon has officially crashed into the Maritime Seas, solely the local "Barfield Bounces Back Believer."

by mjmarble on Feb 14, 2008 10:17 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Well, to be honest, I was still holding out some hope, so I guess this is a little upsetting.

That said, this also gives Indians fans an idea of exactly what's going on.  Here's hoping that the average fan understands this one a little better then they did the other free agent signings...

Keep C.C. this year and see if he can man up in the playoffs.  If you tank, then worry about trading him to one of those desperate contender types.

by painaxl on Feb 14, 2008 10:17 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I don't agree with Nick and Mario that CC MUST be traded now.  But my acceptance of trading him before or mid-season did just go up a few notches.  But it's still behind the 'strike when the irons hot' and ride CC to the finish this season attitude.

by APV on Feb 14, 2008 10:19 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Is it bad that this taught me C.C. HAS an official website?

by Voltaire on Feb 14, 2008 10:29 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Seriously, to me that was bigger news than the fact that he had tabled negotiations.  

by cheech99 on Feb 14, 2008 10:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
So, CC thinks we can't give him enough money for what he's worth, and the front office thinks we can't afford him at the going rate. Fine.

The only thing that bugs me is the assumption behind both stances - ie, "the going rate". A little over a year ago, CC remarked with a laugh "you give me Oswalt money and I'm here to stay", referring to the 5 yr/73 ml contract Oswalt had recently inked.

The laugh had two sides to it: one, that that was a stinkload of money and he'd be glad to sign up for that, it'd be a no brainer. Two, the recognition (backed by the silent assent of everyone from  fans to management to press), that it would be a warm day  in hell for the Indian's to make an offer like that, since it was clearly out of their comfort zone.

So, a mere year and change later and that laugh rings very hollow: "Oswalt money" is suddenly very affordable for the Tribe, and "the going rate" has moved to where CC would laugh at that same offer not because it was too much but because it was obviously too little.

Who wants to bet that within a couple years, we will look back similarly on this situation? The point being that despite success in '07, the Tribe's money situation has not changed so radically so that what was inconceivable a year ago is eminently affordable now. But our comfort zone has remained the same - we can't afford "the going rate".

I don't want to pay him a $100m either, but I'm just wondering if we'll end up thinking that was not such a big deal for a stud pitcher in his prime.

by mcrose on Feb 14, 2008 10:34 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
In five years, the annual salary will look more reasonable - if he is healthy.  But, currently there is a big difference between $20M and $17M.  That $3M can buy a solid player.

CC's value rises as he continues to stay healthy.  He made it through 2007 without injury, so his asking price goes up.  If he gets injured in '08, he will not get $20M.  It does not mean the Tribe will still be able to afford him (our top offer will go down, just like with every other team).  So, CC might get $15M on the open market (while the Tribe would only offer $12M), but that's the risk CC is taking.

by Spidey on Feb 14, 2008 10:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Again, I don't think the issue with CC will be annual $$$ - it will be length of contract.  The Indians will offer a very competitive annual salary for CC, just not for the length of time that he wants - certainly not a five-year extension (six total counting 2008) that Santana received.
Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Feb 14, 2008 11:01 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
That $3M can buy a solid player.

eh, $3M isn't what it used to be. Maybe you could get a decent reliever for it.

If he gets injured in '08, he will not get $20M.

Depending on the injury, I doubt he'll get less than $20M on the open market. An injury might shorten the deal, but I doubt it will lower the $/season.  

by Ryan on Feb 14, 2008 11:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
That reflects the point - we have defined ourselves as the team that "can't pay top dollar". Problem is, what that really means is "this year's top dollar". By next year, even without a commensurate change in resources, we will pay that same money that was then inconceivable, because it no longer is "top" and is now magically within our comfort zone as second tier budget team.

by mcrose on Feb 14, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
That effect is real, but it isn't magic.  We really can afford more in successive years, because as the market is changing, revenues from the MLB central fund have gone up dramatically.  At the same time, as we've moved from rebuilding into the thick of contending, our own revenues have gone up, as well as has the projected ROI on a major signing.

A third factor is price of other options, which also is rising all the time.  We can condone certain salary levels in 2008 that could not have been condoned in 2006, because of other available options.  For all three reasons, the Indians quite non-magically can afford at one point in time what they could not have considered two or three years ago.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Even with increasing revenue forms - cable and the internet - along with inflation, I don't think you're gonna see a $100M payroll for the Tribe in the next half dozen years.  Meanwhile the Yankees have doubled that, the BoSox surpassed it a few years ago and teams like the Angels, Dodgers and Mets will/have surpassed that salary level.

No, get used to it - as long as there is no salary cap the Indians will always be in the lower half of salaries.  

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 14, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I don't disagree, but your knee-jerk reply is totally off-topic.

mcrose pointed out that contracts that seem unthinkable often seem totally thinkable a couple of years later, implying that there is something either dumb or fraudulent about believing right now that we can't afford X dollar amount, when in a few years we'll be wishing the player would stay for that same X dollar amount.

My reply was just to say, yes, that does happen, but it isn't dumb or fraudulent, it's caused by specific factors that raise the norms for the Indians in particular (at this moment) and all teams in general.

I never said anything to the effect that this would move the Indians out of the bottom tier.  It may move them out of the basement, but they probably will not be in the top half of payrolls even at the peak of the current generation of players.  The absolute numbers may move considerably, but the relative numbers will not.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Here's what I'm talking about.  Here's the Indians team salaries for the last eight years:
2007    $61,673,267
2006    $56,031,500
2005    $41,502,500
2004    $34,319,300
2003    $48,584,834
2002    $78,909,499
2001    $93,360,000
2000    $76,500,000

In 2001 I woulda bet money that they'd exceed $100M by 2003 - but they didn't.  But I also woulda bet that they wouldn't pay anybody more than $15M out of that $100M.

Here's what I'm getting at: even if they hit $100M a year in salary they still won't pay any one player more than $18M a year - bargain or no.  Meanwhile, top tier teams with $120M+ salaries now can afford to take on a $20M player this year and hope he's a bargain in 2013.  We can't.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 14, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
oof, 2004.  i think i've blocked most of it out.  i vaguely remember something about drafting jeff d'amico in my roto league.  can't remember if it was a joke or not.  

by emil minty on Feb 14, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
This is still totally off the point, but I'll respond anyway.  The 2001 payroll was an aberration, but the fact that you didn't understand that at the time is not really proof of anything.  At the team's peak of payroll and revenue, they still couldn't afford more than $80 million.  What happened after that was a function of rebuilding, with its attendant low payrolls and low revenue, and much less a function of the macro economic situation, even though that was terrible.

You seem to acknowledge that the payroll may go over $100 million, and to me this is obvious.  We peaked appropriate at around $80 million before, and central fund revenue is up well over $30 million.  If we are more or less selling out, we may well surpass $100 million in 2010, when $48 million basically has already been allocated for six players under contract (or club option).  Had we signed C.C. even to our opening offer, that would have meant $65 million for seven players, plus a slew of other guys (pick five from among Carmona, Garko, Shoppach, Gutierrez, Perez, Sowers, Barfield) already in arbitration.  So it would end up as something like $85 million for 12 players -- trust me, that offer assumed a payroll approaching $100 million.

So with that settled ...

Here's what I'm getting at: even if they hit $100M a year in salary they still won't pay any one player more than $18M a year - bargain or no.

I'm not sure what you're arguing here, that they can't or they won't.  The Indians' initial offer was for @ 17.5 per year, and it would be foolish to assume they weren't prepared to go at least to 19.5.  So I would say that they are already, right now, prepared to break your rule, if all the circumstances are right.

Whether they should do so is another question.   I know you think they shouldn't, but it's pretty clear to me that they disagree.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
What about one year ago? If the factors that allow them to pay next year what they couldn't pay this year are real, measurable, and realistically projected, then they shouldn't have much of a problem paying top dollar - because they realize top dollar NOW is affordable later, and the "comfort zone" would include competing straight-up with the richer teams for selected players.

Instead of "magical", how bout "not completely tied to absolute dollars and cents"? For example, let's say the contracts to compare CC to (Peavy, Zambrano, Santana, etc.) had accelerated slightly faster than they actually did, that they were 10-15% bigger than they are. Do you think that Shap would not have made an offer because he couldn't afford it in absolute dollars? No - he would have made a similar type offer - one that was related to the market but median or just shy once everything was triangulated. It would be within the comfort zone and the self-image of "a team without limitless funds", even though that absolute figure would be one that he wouldn't be comfortable offering today, because it would be outside the zone.

In other words, he can't offer 20/4-5 now because the calculations don't warrant it, but if the market had accelerated slightly, those same market calculations might make that same absolute dollar figure palatable.

by mcrose on Feb 14, 2008 1:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Palatable as in affordable. And BTW, I'm not implying anything fraudulent at all or even dumb in the strictest sense - just that the belief that we can't compete in absolute dollars against the big-budget teams is very deeply held to the point where the actual $$ involved can actually be less weighted than our perceived position in the market at any given time.

by mcrose on Feb 14, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I understood how you meant it (or didn't mean it).  I think the deeply held belief is not that we can't compete with the richest teams, but that imposing discipline on high-risk moves is one of the most powerful ways that we can compete with those teams, i.e., by differentiated strategy.

The risk inherent in rich moves mitigates the differences in payroll to the tune of tens of millions -- "the Yankees actually waste three times more than the Indians actually spend" -- but it potentially mitigates even more to the extent that we avoid those same moves.

Rob Neyer has written some interesting pieces on the subject of how spending just a little more actually doesn't help -- that mid-level teams shouldn't try to compete with the richest teams, because it doesn't take an extra $20 million to do it successfully, it takes an extra $100 million.  (He was discouraging Billy Beane from diving deeper into the free agent pool a year or two ago.)

I think he's basically right, but I also subscribe to the theory that that extra $20 million or $10 million can buy you depth, and depth is very underrated.  Nobody is excited by Byrd, Dellucci, Nixon and Borowski, $18 million total, but realistically, what does our 2007 roster look like without them?  When Shin-Soo Choo goes down and Gutierrez looks horribly exposed after four months, what then?  And who's setting up for Betancourt after we cut four other relievers?  And what happens if we promote a few guys too soon?  Probably not 96 wins.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I agree completely as a general strategy. For specific players at specific times, I'm just pointing out that we can take a calculated risk and match the top end market when necessary, for a specific player - that it can turn out to be affordable rather than unthinkable.

The "comfort zone" in negotiations (a term Shap uses frequently) is just that - an area they don't feel comfortable being outside of, not a particularly analytic description. My point is that the comfort zone for us can be seen as partly related to market positioning rather than absolute dollars.

by mcrose on Feb 14, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I disagree that "comfort zone" is a term used without analytic context.  I think it has some pretty specific analytic meanings.

Comfort zone is a vague term, but proper risk management analytics doesn't yield absolute yes/nos, it yields gradations of yes and no.  Venturing outside your comfort zone in this sense means being willing to go into somewhat riskier territory, or to take the same risk level with higher stakes, or a combination.

I also think it's one thing to go outside the comfort zone (as he's said) in doing a multi-year deal with a reliever for $6.5 million, quite another thing to go outside it with an elite starting pitcher for $120 million.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Absolutely. You have to pick your spots to be uncomfortable. On the shortlist of elite pitchers out there, CC's about the only one I would consider making an exception for: home grown, young, durable, still improving, etc. In his case, I think you have to make the best offer you can afford, not the one that keeps you comfy.

by mcrose on Feb 14, 2008 3:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The other thing to keep in mind is the ripple effect that a "reach" signing will have on future negotiations.  The Indians' posture that they will not (and cannot reasonably) pay the top dollars given by the market is a positive force in all their negotiations.

If they make an exception, they lose that principle in all future dealings.  That will have consequences when it comes time to negotiate with Victor in 2010 and Grady in 2012.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
First, I think the Indians could have been pushed to about exactly what you write, 20/4-5, meaning a vesting fifth year, and I think Sabathia's decision was not to pursue that.  As for the calculations making things more palatable, if that's true, it might be annoying, but would that make the calculations wrong?

I think it's fair to say that the team is probably influenced somewhat by comfort zone and self-image, but let us not forget, they probably are the most rigorous pure analysts of all 30 teams, from Shapiro to Woolner, and reports of the internal culture always paint a picture of openness to ideas from all sources.  Your idea suggests that at no point does somebody say, "Hey, let's start with the assumption that we can afford a $120 million deal."

I think rather that they ask themselves questions like that all the time.  But leaving aside the general question of organizational mentality, there is still the extraordinarily bleak history of long-term pitcher deals staring everyone in the face, and even the most crude analysis has to conclude that a deal like that is only appropriate for a team that is desperate, rich and stupid, e.g., the Mets.  The Indians are none of those three things.

Reaching back to your first point, I think the Indians very much consider the fact that certain dollar amounts will become more affordable over time.  The problem is, this point is so obvious that the richest teams are also considering it, so I think it's moot.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
That's all so - but if they could afford 20/5 and that's the market to match NOW then they should offer that, realizing that whatever their current comfort zone/triangulation is, they will end up outside it to get the deal done.

I wouldn't offer that $$ and length to pretty much any other pitcher - to me the edict of no long term contracts for pitchers is another good general rule that you pick your spots to make exceptions to, and CC perfectly matches those circumstances. If the negotiations are truly over I have to say we could and should have made a better initial offer, both in dollars and years.

Now we are boxed in a corner (not a bad corner, but still) - faced with letting our best player walk for nothing in return, just as he is entering his prime and we are back to being competitive. I'm frustrated that the negotiations ended so abruptly - now part of me wants to trade him for a younger pitcher that has his ceiling, and part of me wants to get the most out of him this year to make the best grab for the ring.

Might make a good LGT poll...

by mcrose on Feb 14, 2008 2:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Nine months from now, when we're celebrating our first world championship in 60 years, we'll all be able to look back at what an inauspicious start to the year this was.  

by maledicta on Feb 14, 2008 10:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
i'm sure glad he chose the day pitchers and catchers report to announce this.  buzz killing douche.

by Brick. on Feb 14, 2008 10:59 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
good point, trade the douche!
Fan in Texas

by fanintexas on Feb 14, 2008 11:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Well, this is a bummer.

I guess this just puts more pressure on Jeremy Sowers to bounce back this year.

by Toxicadam on Feb 14, 2008 11:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Compound noun man... compound noun. Not much more to say.

by gte619n on Feb 14, 2008 11:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Fausto, Sowers, Miller, Lee, Laffey, Byrd, Westbrook. That rotation is not scaring anybody.

by gte619n on Feb 14, 2008 11:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
True, but think about this one:  Beckett, Schilling (ancient version), Wakefield (ancient version), Matsusaka, young pitcher (pick one from the several possibles).  Is that really a HUGELY better rotation?  It would have been if Schilling and Wakefield were 10 years younger, but it doesn't scare me at this point.

I don't want to lose CC either, but the Indians pitching is still decent without him (and might be better than that if the younger guys -- Miller, Sowers, Laffey -- develop as we had hoped they would.

by peter m on Feb 14, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
To be honest it scares me a little bit, as in; "Yeesh, that's not such a great rotation."  Also, remember this is Byrd's last year.

I think this is the best reason to trade CC.  2009 comes around and obviously our rotation is significantly worse.  The question is if we have enough internal talent to replace Sabathia+Byrd and I don't believe we do.  I will grant that Sowers, Lee, Laffey and Miller (I'd also probably add Lofgren) could replace some, or most, of the production but I am skeptical about depending on that to replace production.

I would assume we're not going to be playing in a free agent market where all prices will be inflated thanks to the big man so we're probably running out there what we've got on hand organizationally.  Therefore, the best way to increase our odds of replacing his production is to use his value to bring in cheap, productive talent that increases our odds of replacing his value.

by NickFantana on Feb 14, 2008 11:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
No matter how good your rotation is, it never looks good to you if you remove your number-one guy.  The fact is, we have an above-average rotation without Sabathia, because we had two number-one starters last season, even though we didn't know it at the start.

A year ago we had:  Sabathia, Westbrook, Lee, Sowers, Byrd, Carmona, Miller

And people felt pretty damned good about it, and national analysts said the rotation was underrated and damned good and really deep -- not having any idea how good Carmona really could be.

A year from now, it could be:  Carmona, Westbrook, Lee, Sowers, Miller, Laffey, Lofgren

And depending on whether some of those guys bounce back, we rightly could feel pretty damned good about that rotation.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 11:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Even if you assume Carmona 09=Sabathia 07 and Westbrook 07=Westbrook 09, both tenuous propositions in my mind, then Laffey 09 would have to equal or approximate Carmona 07 and someone from 09 Lee, Sowers, Miller and Lofgren would have to equal 07 Byrd and 07 Miscellaneous Fifth Starter.  So essentially you've got four options for your 4 and 5 spots, two of which showed real fundamental problems with pitching in the majors last year, one with a concerning injury history and one that hasn't pitched in AAA and wasn't very impressive in AA.  That picture does not look as good.  

I think a lot of the national analyst talk about our 07 rotation was based on a return to form of Lee and Sowers building on previous success, plus Carmona and Miller for depth.  Contrasting that with next spring's picture is obviously difficult because you're trying to predict an extra year of data but it seems to me that none of the four needed to fill our 09 rotation (Miller, Lofgren, Lee, Sowers) have as nice looking a resume as Carmona or Miller did going into last year's spring.

In summary, it's hard to argue that "we could rightly feel pretty good about that rotation" but it is hard to do without predicing either a Laffeyian out-of-nowhere arrival or a "bounce back" from Lee or Sowers.  

Meanwhile, I believe Sabathia's trade value is high enough that we can replace his production this year (in offense or pitching) and also restock the cabinet for 09.

by NickFantana on Feb 14, 2008 1:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
it seems to me that none of the four needed to fill our 09 rotation (Miller, Lofgren, Lee, Sowers) have as nice looking a resume as Carmona or Miller did going into last year's spring.

I was a big Carmona fan at all times, but you can't say that Sowers and Lee aren't more accomplished now than Carmona was a year ago.  That's just silly.  He was a very good prospect, but those other two have already had major league success, Lee for a sustained period of time, and Sowers is still just three years out of the draft!

It's a mistake to think that major league struggles diminish a player who's still young enough to be a prospect.  Sowers turns 25 in May and is younger than (for example) Rafael Perez, Josh Barfield, Brian Barton, Shin-Soo Choo and Ben Francisco.  Not super-young, but young enough to be a very good prospect albeit with a limited ceiling, same as he ever was.

it is hard to do without predicing either a Laffeyian out-of-nowhere arrival or a "bounce back" from Lee or Sowers.

I am predicting exactly one of those three things.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 1:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Don't forget that last offseason, Carmona was a guy about whom you could say "major league struggles diminish a player who's still young enough to be a prospect." Things can change fast.

by zempf on Feb 14, 2008 2:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
1) Definitely the wrong choice of words to use resume where I did.  I would even call it sill y myself.  Obviously, resume connotes previous major league experience and what I meant was an overall view of current talent and potential talent.  While I agree 100% that Lee and Sowers are more accomplished now (and certainly will be by 09) than Carmona (and Miller, for that matter) was last year, I would argue that one could have (and many of us did) anticipated Carmona and/or Miller having a significant positive impact on the rotation in 2007.  Meanwhile, I do not anticipate being able to make the same prediction about Sowers or Lee going into 2009.

That goes to your second point in predicting that either Sowers or Lee will rebound or Santo Frias will come out of nowhere and win some games in 2009.  I can sense why you would predict one of those three things and I am sympathetic to that line of thinking.  In addition, I'm sure you have some good reasons for predicting one of those three that you haven't brought to bear in this conversation yet.  However, I find the fourth option, trading Sabathia, to be the most compelling.  

Given a choice between predicting that Lee or Sowers bounce back, Pitcher X comes out of the night to win some games or Prospect A B C and D, received as the result of a Sabathia trade help to replace his production this year and for many more to come, at a reduced price, wouldn't you say that the Sabathia trade scenario is most likely to replace his lost production and solve rotation issues in 09?

by NickFantana on Feb 14, 2008 2:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
All along, there was the discussion about Westbrook, Hafner, Sabathia, we'd be fortunate to get 2 out of the 3.  Well, we got 2 out of the 3.  

Now, I suppose you could play the whole hindsight card and say we shouldn't have done the Hafner deal, but that deal wouldn't have precluded us giving C.C. what he wants (I don't think).  We were just never going to go that 5th year.  

by cheech99 on Feb 14, 2008 11:07 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I'd love to sign CC, but I'm sure it's the years, not just the money, that's the issue.  The Indians don't do long-term pitching deals (i.e., beyond three years or so), which means they cannot hope to sign CC, even if they wanted to pay the big bucks for a few years.  I don't know if they're right.  You look at Colon, who was traded in his prime and is a shell of himself five years later, and you think maybe they're right.  But, it's still tough to take.  I have the feeling that CC will be a good pitcher for a while; maybe he'll get hurt, but I think expecting him to be productive in five or six years is reasonable.

by peter m on Feb 14, 2008 11:13 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
"Well, I guess there's only thing left to do..."

"Win the whole ...  thing"

by painaxl on Feb 14, 2008 11:14 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Is anybody else really kind of angry right now, because Cleveland has really backed CC over his career, including after his horrendous post-season meltdown this year that cost us a WS bid (and probably title cuz the Rockies sucked)?  I mean, if I performed that badly at my job in crunch time like 4 times in a row, I would definitely be grateful for an opportunity to make up for it.  At least we have an ace in the hole, so here's to Fausto being an even better ace than CC.

by FaustosSinkingFastball on Feb 14, 2008 11:27 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
No, it's a business and he is a businessman.
I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Feb 14, 2008 12:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Round up the usual suspects.

This argument smells just like that made by Roger Clemens yesterday when he said how he backed the USA. USA! USA! USA!  The last refuge of scoundrels.

This how the system works; The team gets to underpay a player for the first six years of his service, including some of his prime years. A form of indentured servitude, though not without its perks.  In return, after the player has made his bones, he gets his freedom and go for the money.

There is really nothing to be angry about.  The fates were probably sealed when Barry Zito got his $126 million seven year contract.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 14, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I agree; ultimately the Zito contract is a much bigger problem as a comp than the Santana contract.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 12:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The Santana contract, and to a great extent, the A-Rod Rangers contract could be considered outliers, for arguments sake.  But you know CC compared himself to Zito and said to himself "Whassup with that? I'm better than him on my middling days."

by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 14, 2008 12:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Let's just sign Fausto to a 10-year deal right now just to see the look on CC's face.....that's the one.

by supermarioelia on Feb 14, 2008 11:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
10 years? That'll just break my heart in 2018. How about 100 year deal? Does the CBA allow that?

by gte619n on Feb 14, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Carmona will get a record-setting deal (for a player with less than two years service time) before Opening Day, I'm pretty sure of that.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 11:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
That is a fantastic idea. I hope that happens.

by KevinV on Feb 14, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Man, I guess I should have seen this coming. Call me naive, but what a punch in the gut. I will really miss CC. And now Valentine's Day is even more depressing.
Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Feb 14, 2008 11:58 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Oh! Finally someone is speaking on this subject with his head, not his heart.

Of course, Sabathia's gone after this season. What's the question? And who in his right mind (there's that brain thing again) would take a chance on a pitcher, especially one of this particular physical type, with a contract of the duration he is demanding.

Answer: NYY, NYM, CHC, LAA or any of the other "grotesque" teams out there.

Mark, you're thinking straight. Don't slip up!

by ploni on Feb 14, 2008 11:59 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The way I see it, there's only one solution.  FREE JASON BAY!

by Brick. on Feb 14, 2008 11:59 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I'm pretty sure that Dustin Pedrioa talked CC out of that 4-year, $70m deal.

by gte619n on Feb 14, 2008 12:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
What a douche.
I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Feb 14, 2008 12:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I heard it was literally pen in hand, CC about to sign the contract, and a last minute call comes in from Pedrioa and CC responded to Shapiro following the call, "Nada", and walked away into the horizon, clouds following his trail, and sun extinguishing...

by hans on Feb 14, 2008 12:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I'm not too fazed by this.  Alex Rodriguez leaves the Mariners, and they survived (for a time). I know the FO will not sit idle while the roster deteriorates.  I feel better about this years team than I did last years version, which I knew would be better than what came before.

Unlike the Manny, Thome & Belle situations, we don't have to wonder what will happen in 2009.    CC's departure is an accomplished fact unless his 2008 is unsuccessful.  I'd prefer that he have a classic contract year / age 27 performance for us this season and then leave, as opposed to a freak scenario that enables us to afford him.

So, assuming CC isn't traded (and don't believe he will be), we have all season to resign ourselves it.  I'll be rooting for him.      

by jhon on Feb 14, 2008 12:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
If you're looking for a freak scenario to root for, I'm going with a mid-May to mid-June stint on the DL that freaks him out a little, so he tells his agents to negotiate the best extension possible with the Indians, to be sealed at the break.

It's not happening, but it may be the likeliest way that he could stay.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
That is hilarious.  

An unlikely scenario as you stated, but it would be interesting if it ever happened.

by SpringTrainingFun on Feb 14, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
If all other systems are 'go', and our intra-division competition isn't looking so formidible, I'm totally rooting for that to happen.

by jhon on Feb 14, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I'm thinking Dodgers. The allure of hitting will be too great, and if he goes to the NL I'll feel OK rooting for him again.

by zempf on Feb 14, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I don't know if they want to be paying both CC and Zito upwards of $18 mil/year for the next 6-7 years, otherwise I'd say he'd head to San Francisco too.

by zempf on Feb 14, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I can't say I'm surprised; I don't think anyone is.  It was nice to hold out hope and find reasons to think that maybe we would get CC for another 4 years, but c'est la vie as an Indians fan.

I'm not on board with the few people that think he must be traded.  Obviously if the injury bug bits badly early on or for another reason we are out of contention come the trade deadline, I'd ship him off for as many pitching prospects as I could get.

I also don't necessarily think we need to "ride him hard and put him away wet."  Obviously a healthy, effective CC gets the Indians to where we want them this year a lot easier than it would otherwise, but getting a useless CC in the playoffs because he's exhausted from the regular season doesn't help either of us.  Leaving the Tribe for money doesn't make me like CC right now, but he's been one of my favorites for a few years and I will wish him well after the year is over ... until he signs with the Yankees or the Red Sox.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Feb 14, 2008 12:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
in other news, the new banner is hi-larious.

by emil minty on Feb 14, 2008 12:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

TRADE!
If a Sabathia trade can net us Phil Hughes or (Ian Kennendy + Austin Jackson), do it. Do it now!

by crazymoloh on Feb 14, 2008 12:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: TRADE!
See I think our best shot for a trade is mid-season - with one of the lower tier teams.  Like Toronto.  If they're within striking distance of the play-offs I think we can pry Rios loose from them for CC.  I could go for that.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 14, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: TRADE!
I agree--spring training is a bad time to solicit trades. Most gm's are stubbornly optimistic about their clubs, and their emphasis is on reducing rosters, as if they are burdened with too much talent.

The harsh reality of the regular season will reveal that the Yankee stud prospects are still merely prospects, that the Red Sox rotation, already leaking Schilling, is not so deep as assumed, and that the Dodgers are involved in a dogfight, not a waltz to the pennant.

The regular season will also reveal whether the Indians can contend for the Central title. If they cannot, Sabathia would be most valuable to those teams that see themselves as one great left arm away from the Series.

Finally, I would take with a mountain of salt C.C.'s claim that negotiations will not go on in the regular season. Negotiations with his new club would certainly take place before a trade was completed, as in the Santana situation.

It is even possible that Sabathia could still re-up with the Tribe. I would never, however, expect the often mentioned "home town discount" from him. Cleveland is not his hometown: he is a California boy, and every Californian I have ever met thinks there is but one state in this union worthy of human habitation. C.C.'s majestic "crib" was not built in Cuyahoga County.

by Rochester on Feb 14, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: TRADE!
I don't think CC would net us that right now.

Besides, I think you have to keep CC on the team for this year because we have a completely legit shot of winning the World Series.  If we won a World Series, I'd be okay with the team devolving the way the White Sox have, for crying out loud.  But we wouldn't -- CC would be the only core player we'd lose.  It'd be a tough loss, but not one that would be insurmountable.

I guess it's a risk/reward analysis.  Watching the Tribe win the World Series is worth a lot of risks in my mind, and CC this year makes that a lot more likely than it would be without him.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Feb 14, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: TRADE!
Well, you have to calculate that against the chance that we don't win the WS in 2008 and we have lost CC  and received nothing in return.  Vegas is now putting the odds of the Indians winning this year's WS at 10-1.  And that's WITH C.C. and after having come within 5 wins of winning it last year.

I haven't seen anyone talking about a middle ground (though admittedly I'm trying to read this thread while pretending to work, though at least I'm not in class, Adam).  Keep CC until close to the trading deadline, and trade him if we're out of serious contention.  Another team might pay a lot if they thought CC could bring them across the finish line, and we'd at least have gotten some value back.  If we're undeniably in contention, hold onto him and pray.

by Denver Tribe Fan on Feb 14, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: TRADE!
10-1 is actually damned good.  Even if you've already made the playoffs, your odds are rarely much better than 8-1.  We're 9/2 to take the pennant, which is damned good considering who we'll have to beat.

The Tigers are only slightly better at 4/1 to win the pennant, and you have to consider that they're lowering the payoff on that bet because they'll expect elevated volume on it.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: TRADE!
Aren't you a professor, though?  So doesn't working involve teaching class?  I'm skipping copyright today, by the way, so I'm not in class until 2:30.

Kidding aside, I don't think that using Vegas odds is exactly the best way to determine a given teams chances of winning anything (It's certainly the easiest, and there's not really a way to do it otherwise, but hear me out).  Vegas doesn't set lines at a spot relative to what the setters think will happen -- they set it to a point that will result in 50% of the money being on either side (obviously this is skewed for odds, but the same idea exists; insure yourself from getting burned if a longshot comes through or if everyone bets on one team.  The Cubs are consistently "favored" over where they'd be because so many people bet on them, for example.

Long way of saying that 10:1 doesn't really reflect the Indians' chance of winning, in my opinion.  I think it may be higher than that, but even if it's just one in ten, I'll take it.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Feb 14, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: TRADE!
The house can self-insure.  That's why they're the house.

It's in the house's best interest to bias the odds a little in the direction opposite the prevailing traffic.  They won't veer very far away from the 50/50 point, but the guys making the odds generally are a lot smarter than the guys placing the bets.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: TRADE!
And these future prop bets are much more in the house's favor than the 50/50 they shoot for on sides and totals.  Despite the Giants being huge dogs to win the Super Bowl at any given point in the season, playoffs, and up until kickoff (no better than 3:1 anywhere), Vegas cashes in big on these types of bets.  If it wasn't for all the lost prop bets on the other 31 NFL teams, the books would have lost much more than $2.6M.

If you don't plan on hedging at some point, they are sucker bets (not as nicely put as your last sentence, but meaning the same).

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Feb 14, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: TRADE!
Believe me, I get what you and Jay are both saying, and I realize Vegas odds aren't necessarily a great way to measure the real chance of a team winning it all in a given year.  My point was just that there are a lot of factors that go into winning a championship in any given year and that the FO has to measure the chance that we could take the ultimate prize against the chance that we'll end the season without the WS and lose CC to free agency and get nothing in return for the following year.  If we think we have a solid core of players now and have a window of opportunity to win the WS sometime in the next few years, it might be a good idea to get value for CC now (assuming we could right now, which I admit is not clear) and have some good players to complement the current roster and make a run.  I don't know HOW to make that comparative calculation, but I think that's the rational way to approach the decision to trade him or let him run out his contract.

Btw, Indians at Rockies tix go on sale Saturday morning.

by Denver Tribe Fan on Feb 15, 2008 1:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: TRADE!
WOOO!

I will be at all three.  Studying-for-the-bar schmudying-for-the-bar.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Feb 15, 2008 11:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: TRADE!
Hey look around at all the doofuses with licenses - how tough can that exam be anyway?
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 15, 2008 11:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: TRADE!
Judging by the number of med-mal cases, probably only a little tougher than the medical boards.
"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Feb 15, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Let's remember that Cleveland is the 24th largest market and shrinking. This puts us somewhere between the team fielded to play the King's Court and the Washington Generals.
Job one is to field an entertaining and competitive team in most years so that major league baseball stays in Cleveland.
That is best accomplished by assuring that we get as much as possible for CC so as to meet job one.
It would feel good to go "all in" trying to win a World Series, but the hangover in succeeding years isn't worth it, no matter the outcome.
I know I come off as a wet blanket, but, better to be a wet blanket than to return to the days where our team is not competitive and there is the threat that some owner wants to move our team to a growing market. I welcome your rebuttal.

by elsandito on Feb 14, 2008 2:02 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
NOT the 24th largest market, just the 24th largest metropolitan area.  Markets more closely correlate with CSA, in which case Cleveland is 15th.  PLease see my post above for more detail.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_of_United_States_Combined_Statistical_Areas

by randallhank on Feb 15, 2008 2:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
At some point the Indians are going to have to spend money to contend year in and year out.  So far (with Belle, Thome, Ramirez), we have not been willing to do this.

So, I have a question to all of you.  What are we cheering for?  Do we want all average players (Westbrooks, Lees, Byrds, Blakes) with a couple cheap superstars (Hafner, Sizemore, V-Mart)?  It seems like this is all we can afford and all we are willing to spend on.  We havent brought in a significant free agent in this decade.  We do many things very good such as extending the current players and making beneficial trades.  Dont get me wrong what we do is great and I love it.  These things are what put us ahead of 75% of all the other organizations but that last 25% will not be beat without breaking the bank every now and then.

We have one of the smartest front offices in all of sports and they dont spend on oft injured or over the hill vets which is great but they do need to spend on guys like this.

This brings me back to my question...what are we cheering for...CC to be traded for a young pitcher who becomes as good as CC and then walks also because we dont have the money for him?  Or do we trade for average talent so we can keep them for 10 years and finish second or third in the division and hope for a playoff run in there at some point???

by Tribe Alive on Feb 14, 2008 2:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
you're right.  let's all just go be redsox and yankees fans.  get on the E5 train to frontrunnerville.

by Brick. on Feb 14, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Do we want all average players (Westbrooks, Lees, Byrds, Blakes) with a couple cheap superstars (Hafner, Sizemore, V-Mart)?

Yes.

It seems like this is all we can afford and all we are willing to spend on.

Willing to spend, or can spend?  The Indians barely broke even last season, while the Yankees made well over $50 million in real profits.  That is not a problem of "willingness," it's a problem with the system.  There is no owner in baseball -- none -- who has been willing to tolerate sustained losses of tens of millions of dollars in order to contend.

We havent brought in a significant free agent in this decade.

And yet we had the best record in baseball last year, and we got to 93-plus wins two years out of three.  What is your point?

We have acquired significant talent.  Free agent talent is the most expensive and least effective kind.  And by the way, Westbrook is not average.

what are we cheering for...CC to be traded for a young pitcher who becomes as good as CC and then walks also because we dont have the money for him?  Or do we trade for average talent so we can keep them for 10 years

I think you're losing count of the years.  We'll have had eight years of C.C., and we've got Grady locked up for his first eight years plus.  Yes, that is all we're going to get in most cases.  Eight years is a long time for any player to be with any team, so let's not act like it's a really short tenure.

My point being, we can have superior talent for 6-8 years, and that's pretty damned good -- and it's a lot better than the leftovers other teams get.  Did we not get the best part of Belle's career, Thome's career, even Manny's career?  Of course we did.  That's how it works.

Westbrooke's $33 million contract is the second-richest ever by the Indians, surpassed only a few months later by Hafner's $57 million.  I believe the Indians were willing to go to $80 million for Sabathia, so they essentially agree with your statement, "they do need to spend on guys like this."

But there are limits.  Do you really think they should spend $120 million to keep Sabathia?

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 3:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
It's when you get like this that I remember why I love you.
I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Feb 14, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I am not talking about the past.  I think I said 3 or 4 times that I like what we have done.  I just think we should break the bank every now and then if it means we are going to keep a superstar around.  We have something great right now...a homegrown team with talent and depth in every area of the game.  The only problem is, we will not win a World Series without 2 or 3 of those top pieces.  Grady and Victor arent going anywhere right now but CC might and I am nervous that this will bring us from a 93 win team to an 85-90 win team.  Dont get me wrong, that isnt bad but it isnt what we all really want.

by Tribe Alive on Feb 14, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Right, but you haven't defined "break the bank."

My point was that (I believe) the Indians were willing to break the bank, giving Sabathia a contract three times larger than anything we had ever given prior to 2007, and setting a new record for contract extensions given to a pitcher.  That is breaking the bank in my book.  Do you disagree?

What do you consider breaking the bank?  Is there no limit?

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I'm of a completely different mindset here.  I don't for one second believe that CC ever intended to sign an extension.  Similarly, I don't think that Shapiro et al ever wanted him to agree to a "bank breaking" deal.  I think all the players involved knew it would come to this.

It's one big tease.  CC never intended to sign and we never intended to sign him.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 14, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
There is a limit and I dont think signing Thome would have been a good idea (we would have only had him and no depth) but I do think Manny wouldnt have been the worst idea (Hall of Fame numbers from then to present) with a decent team around him at the time.

I dont think we should go out and spend money on guys like Zito, Magglio, Torii Hunter, Soriano, etc.  But, I do think we do whatever we can to make sure CC ends up an Indian for his career.  He is a homegrown, amazing talent that needs to be here over the next 5-10 years.  This team will not be the same without him...period.  

Without him we are 3rd place at best...who is going to replace him?  Let's look at some of the pitchers on the market this past year that could have...Glavine, Fogg, Livan, Silva, Tomko, Wolf.  I think you all see my point here.  Who are we gonna get next year once CC walks?  Mussina, Prior???

by Tribe Alive on Feb 15, 2008 9:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Without him we are 3rd place at best...who is going to replace him(?)

The first assertion is BS.  We have no idea how high the Indians can finish without CC - none.  I keep coming back to the Pronk/Pronk-lyte situation between 06 and 07.  There was a precipitous drop in production in our DH slot between those two years and a quantum increase in number of wins.  No one - no one - woulda predicted that outcome in April of 07.  

And, in my opinion, CC was not our number one starter in 07 - Fausto was.  Again, unimaginable in February of 07.  

I find this idea that you can project how a season will unfold in February ill considered.  In fact I find the whole idea of projecting team performance based on previous performance ill considered.  You could just as easily ask, "who will replace Victor if he gets hurt/slumps?" or Grady or Fausto or a number of others and not have a satisfactory answer.  Similarly I find the idea that you can predict how valuable a 300-pound pitcher will be in seven years even more incredible.

All I know is this: there are guy(s) unknown to us now who will prove to be critical components in the Tribe's drive to the pennant this year.  Bank on it.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 15, 2008 10:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
"the Indians barely broke even last season"

just out of curiosity, where are you getting those numbers from?

by 7foot3 on Feb 14, 2008 7:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I was wondering the same thing.  I think that if every tiem was losing money or barely breaking even there should be some articles out there.  

If I am not mistaken we had one of the lowest payrolls and winningest teams.  And, out of all the lowest payrolls in baseball, we had some of the largest attendance numbers.

And we still only break even...sounds fishy.

by Tribe Alive on Feb 15, 2008 9:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
7 teams had a lower payroll than the Indians in 2007, and 3 of those (Padres, Rockies, D-Backs) had a higher attendance.  The Indians attendance was in the bottom third of the MLB.

by fingolfin on Feb 15, 2008 11:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Nothing fishy about it.  Local media contracts are now overwhelmingly the major source of revenue for every team, a development that was still emerging in the Indians' last period of contention ten years ago.  Central MLB revenue and local ticket sales are significant but smaller pieces of the pie.

If I go with Chuck's analysis, we're in the 24th largest market, but there are actually only three teams in smaller markets (Reds, Royals, Milwaukee).  Mr. Naharodny's figure of 15th is probably a better one for this purpose, since combined statistical areas are probably defined more along the same lines as media markets.  Here again, though, you have to consider that the top six CSA's are home to 10 teams, and all five two-team CSA's are more than twice the size of Cleveland's.

So the big difference between the two methods is that the Indians market sneaks ahead of the Cardinals market by a hair, which still makes ours the fifth-smallest.  (I'm thinking St. Louis has more regional appeal, but the Indians must get some benefit from the Columbus market, 24th biggest CSA, even if it is shared with Cincinnati.)

Anyway, I'll dig up some links on team revenues, but what you're going to find is that the Yankees had more than a $200 million revenue advantage over the Indians yet spent "only" $160 million more on payroll.

by Jay on Feb 15, 2008 6:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The same thing happened to hafner. So there is some hope.

by brandon on Feb 14, 2008 2:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
What same thing?  Hafner never announced that there would be no negotiating until the end of the season, and anyway, Hafner was two years away from being a free agent, not just one.  Those differences are everything.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
they always say this so that nobody asks them quesitons about it rather they negotiate or not.

Like last year when they said this about Hafner... then signed him early in the season

by brandon on Feb 14, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The thing is, they say that at the end of spring training, not at the start.

And you're missing the key point, which is that Hafner was not only a few months away from free agency.  We still had a team option on him for 2008, so even had a deal not gotten done last season, it might have gotten done this offseason.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 3:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Without having to allocate a huge chunk of money for Sabathia for the next 5 years (including a raise this year), Shapiro has a lot of flexibility to rent players for the stretch drive this year.

by palcal on Feb 14, 2008 2:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Look people this is our reality. All of our superstars leave us. Belle, Ramirez, Thome, and now Charles Sabathia. The Cleveland Indians never pay out when it comes time to fork up the bucks for the big contract. The Indians usually dish out the first contract extension, but when it comes time to pay our players prime dollars the Indians revert back to their farm system for help. I say trade CC and get something in return, whether before Spring training or before the trading deadline. After his piss-poor performance in the 07 playoffs I'd rather watch Westbrook,Byrd, or Laffey throwing off the mound.  Later CC...So long and thanks for the fish

by VermilionGuy on Feb 14, 2008 3:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
It seems like you and many others are going into the season thinking that the Indians can't contend this year.

I don't think your negativity is rational.

by palcal on Feb 14, 2008 3:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I beleive they will contend this year and many years to come. Will can do it with or without CC. Since CC obviously is gong to test the open waters why ride him into October and get nothing in return. Get what you can now or in mid July. Mike Triv. said something that we all need to remember ROOT for the TEAM and not the PLAYER!

by VermilionGuy on Feb 14, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Do you really think that the Indians would be as good without CC this year?

What is your basis for saying that?

by palcal on Feb 14, 2008 3:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
He didn't say that.  He said the team can contend with or without C.C., not that they'd be equally good either way.

by Jay on Feb 14, 2008 3:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
OK, there is a distinction.

I would argue that the 2008 team has not been built to contend without Sabathia.  If Sabathia is traded before the trading deadline, the Indians would need to get some players in return that could make a significant contribution this year if they are serious about making it to the World Series.

I'm sure that Shapiro will listen to offers, but I
don't think it is probable he will be tempted while the Indians are in contention.

by palcal on Feb 14, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
So you think they were "constructed" last year to contend with a .266/.385/.451 DH instead of a .308/.439/.659 DH?  Me neither.

But contend they did, cuz it's a team game.  Who's to say that Fausto and Jake don't improve from last year to this year?  And that Marte doesn't turn into a RBI machine and Garko's power numbers jump up?  We contended last year with four or five guys playin' much better in '07 than expected - Grako, Fausto, Raffies, Vic.  It's Spring Training for chrissake - anything can happen.

We'll do fine with or without CC - we've got guys down in the minors right now who've got the potential to light it up.  Chill Bro - we've got this World Series thing in the bag.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 14, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Expanding on your point, C.C.'s VORP over the past few years:  65.2, 46.5, 32.8, 39.4.

Translating those to wins contributed above a starter named Jason:  6, 4, 3, 3.5.

How about Win Shares?  24, 14, 13, 12.  Above bench:  18, 9, 7, 6.

Translating those to wins contributed above a starter named Jason:  6, 3, 2.3, 2.

My point being, it's not as though we can just pencil in C.C. to contribute six extra wins, any more than we can Pronk.  In fact, prior to last season, it would be fair to say C.C. usually contributed three extra wins, and Pronk contributed six.

How about that?

In a typical year, losing C.C. is like losing three wins in the standings, as long as we don't have a fatal collapse of pitching depth.  We seem well prepared against that.

It also is unlikely that C.C. has established a "new level" for himself with his six-win season in 2007.  Regression is the most powerful statistical force in baseball projection, and the likelihood is that he established his level over the three years prior, something in the range of 3 or 4 marginal wins, and 2007 was an outlier produced mainly by an aberrant (though impressive) pile of innings pitched.

It is a shame for us to lose C.C., but it certainly is not unrecoverable.  As Chuck says, it is a team sport, and there is only so much impact one player can have.  C.C. is not a freakish outlier contributor of marginal wins, he's just a great player.

For reference, top Indians WSAB seasons since 2004:

  1. Hafner, 2005
  2. Martinez, 2007
  3. Sabathia, 2007
  4. Hafner, 2006
  5. Carmona, 2007
  6. Sizemore, 2007
  7. Hafner, 2004
  8. Peralta, 2005
  9. Sizemore, 2005
  10. Sizemore, 2006

  11. Westbrook, 2004
  12. Martinez, 2004
  13. Martinez, 2005
  14. Peralta, 2007
  15. Betancourt, 2007
  16. Crisp, 2005
  17. Millwood, 2005
  18. Sabathia, 2005
  19. Broussard, 2004
  20. Hafner, 2007

  21. Lee, 2005
  22. Sabathia, 2005
  23. Westbrook, 2006
  24. Martinez, 2006
  25. Sabathia, 2004
  26. Vizquel, 2004
  27. Belliard, 2004
  28. Howry, 2005
  29. Belliard, 2005
  30. Byrd, 2007

Four-year totals

  1. Hafner
  2. Martinez
  3. Sizemore (49 pace)
  4. Sabathia
  5. Peralta (35 pace)
  6. Westbrook

by Jay on Feb 15, 2008 7:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I don't think quoting Triv ever helps an argument.
I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Feb 14, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Triv is a huge part of why I got satellite radio.  Thanks, Triv!

by Fundamentals on Feb 14, 2008 8:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I've been staring at that sentence for 5 minutes trying to convince myself that there was sarcasm there. Please clarify.

by supermarioelia on Feb 14, 2008 8:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I got satellite radio so I didn't have to deal with Triv on a daily basis.  Its worth the $10/month to hear intelligent sports talk and not the incoherent babblings of a moron who hosts a show that is at its best when he isn't on the air.

by Fundamentals on Feb 14, 2008 9:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Haha alright I understand now.

Triv is also among the reasons I first purchased mlb.tv. Too often I accidentally turned my radio to 1100 AM the afternoon following a Tribe game. The yelling made my ears bleed.

by supermarioelia on Feb 14, 2008 9:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
So you like Jim Rome, or Stephen A. Smith or Doug Gottlieb or Colin Cowherd?  Me neither.

I do like Dan Patrick but I recognize that this is an acquired taste and Mike and Mike can be entertaining for about 5 minutes.  Mike Tirico is the best of the bunch but he's only good for about 15 minutes a day.

Sports talk just isn't all that interesting, not since Scott Raab and Pete Franklin went off the air anyway.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 15, 2008 8:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
CC gave you fish??  Man, now I'm really dissapointed: I didn't get any fish.

by Nat on Feb 14, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Cleveland is not alone in their general inability to pay for their own superstars once they hit free agent status.  Don't you think the Royals would like to still have an outfield of Jermaine Dye, Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon?  

The truth is that only four or five big-$$$$$$ teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox, etc. are capable of retaining a significant number of their superstars once they are eligible for free agency.  

When Yankees fans point to their "home-grown" guys like Captain Choke, Rivera, and Posada to try to persuade people they haven't bought their team, it actually proves that they have, because if any of those guys had come up with a poor team, let's say the Royals, they'd be long gone by now.

Many teams can retain 1 or 2 potential superstars and they have to make the absolute right call or they'll pay for years.  Do you think the A's would have liked right about now to have kept Miguel Tejada and let Eric Chavez walk?  And how about the last few years of Mike Sweeney with the Royals?

The Tribe is at least innovative enough to extend the period before that first big free agency check from 6 to 7 or 8 years by buying out a couple years of potential free agency at a bargain price.   Many teams are unable to do even that and get only 5 or 5.5 years out of their potential superstars.

You can say that the Indians are cheap if you want.  It does put you in a class with the Triv-listening blame Dolan first crowd.  It is more realistic to say that the Tribe is in touch with the economic realities of the game that the vast majority of teams operate, and while they've identified strategies to mitigate some of the pain while they work within those constraints, they cannot function as if those constraints don't exist.

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Feb 14, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Thanks, woody, I thought yours was one of the most entertaining and thoughtful posts I've seen in a long time.

by elsandito on Feb 14, 2008 4:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
It's days like this that as a fan I hate our FO for being so analytical. Most days I love it, but today it stinks.

All of this talk of the extra year being the sticking point...you're telling me that after what would be 7 years of serious contending for the AL Central crown, that we wouldn't be willing to waste one year of overpaying a potentially underperforming or injured CC? This idea of a club acting as a sort of perpetual motion machine of greatness is a great philosophy, and I applaud Shap, but I wish they would just step back and take a broader view of things. I would think that more financial damage would be done in the eyes of casual fans by not signing C.C. than would be done by some down years from the club caused by the overpayment of C.C.

In not giving C.C. the extra year, they're pretty much saying that one extra bad year of C.C. is not worth taking the risk for potentially four good years. And where do they plan on spending this money now? As has been stated a million times here, we have no valuable in-house FAs coming up for eons. So that leaves FAs on the open market...yay.

After some thought I almost have to semi-agree with Chuck...it wouldn't surprise me if they never intended to get a deal done at all, because that one extra year shouldn't make or break a deal considering this team's context.

by supermarioelia on Feb 14, 2008 7:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Well said, Mario. I tend to agree that the risk isn't as large as the FO might make it out to be.
Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Feb 15, 2008 10:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Well, here's the fault with this line of thinking.  You're thinking that whatever the Indians are offering, "one extra year" isn't any big deal.  But your selection of their offer (five years of risk) as the official "right number of years" is totally arbitrary.

The real risk assessment on starting pitchers is that you don't want to commit to more than three years.  Never mind Sabathia, they were willing to go one extra year on Westbrook -- who got a three-year extension with one year still remaining on his deal.  In other words, a four-year commitment at the time of the deal.

As for Sabathia, they were willing to offer two extra years, and probably would have tossed on a vesting third extra year.  But they were not willing to guarantee three or four extra years beyond what they most prudently would do, which is only three years.

The Indians previously made four-year commitments to Sabathia at the starts of the 2002 and 2005 seasons.  They made two-year commitments to Westbrook in 2005, Byrd in 2006 and Betancourt just a month ago.  They made a 3.5-year commitment to Lee in mid-2006.

Here are all of the Indians' multi-year contractual commitments to pitchers under Shapiro:

4 years - Sabathia, March 2005
4 years - Sabathia, March 2002
4 years - Westbrook, March 2007
3.5 years - Lee, June 2006
3 years - Wickman, March 2002
2 years - Byrd, March 2006
2 years - Westbrook, March 2005
2 years - Betancourt, March 2008

See what I mean?  The number is three -- two if you can get away with it.  Four is for very special cases.  Five is for a once-in-a-generation situation, like this one.

Six or seven is for suckers.

by Jay on Feb 15, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
So what you're saying is that they were already incredibly uncomfortable with their current offer? I guess that's fair.

But I still don't see what Plan B is when we don't sign him. Just going along our merry way signing lesser FAs for the next 4 years?

by supermarioelia on Feb 15, 2008 8:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Plan B?  I guess I just don't see it that way.

The Plan is always to develop as many talented young players as possible, keep the best ones you can keep, and sign free agents only when absolutely necessary, where necessary.

We've kept Sabathia for an extra two years and Westbrook for an extra three (so far).  We signed Byrd because we needed one more guy for the next couple of years, Millwood before that, and we keep on developing more, with a dozen or more works in progress at any given time.

That's the plan, and that's always been the plan.

by Jay on Feb 15, 2008 8:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Oh I get the plan, and as I've said before I'm totally fine with it.

I'm talking about the money that the club is taking in, that they were willing to spend on player salary, and is now for all intents and purposes just "sitting there". If four years down the road we use some of it to sign our current pre- and peri-arbitration players to long-term contracts, then I'm satisfied. I just want fans not to forget about this cash when things when revenues and expenses are tallied years from now.

I've never criticized ownership for being cheap, because I understand that spending money frivolously, as some on this site ludicrously advocate for, is foolish when it can be spent more wisely at a later date. So if this failure to sign CC opens things up later on for other signings, then great.

But I'm on high-alert as of yesterday.

by supermarioelia on Feb 15, 2008 9:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
It strikes me that the prevailing thought just one year ago was that we would lose Sabathia, Westbrook and Hafner.  We're keeping two out of three, and while Sabathia might have been our first choice, would you not rather have Westbrook and Hafner than just Sabathia -- and for less money?

by Jay on Feb 15, 2008 9:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Even with Hafner's struggles, yeah I'd agree that I'd take him and Westbrook for less money over Sabathia.

But whatever the prevailing thought was a year ago, the fact is that based on our budget right now the FO was ready to give CC a fairly hefty contract. So either the money is actually there to spend, or they were prepared to be financially-squeezed for the next little while. Knowing our philosophy, there's no way they were going to spend money that wasn't there.

So all I'm saying is that I'm at peace (sort of) with this C.C. business as long as we don't cry poor with our own guys for at least the next 5 years. In all likelihood, this lets us make another round of Martinez-Hafner-Westbrook-Peralta-Sizemore type signings with the new crop of youngsters between 2009 and 2012....so I'll live.

by supermarioelia on Feb 15, 2008 10:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I'm not sure if you'll consider this good news or bad news, but my strong sense is that those youngster lockup signings were never in question.  Fausto, Garko, AstroCab, whoever -- if you can't afford to pay your own young talent through arbitration, then you've done something horribly wrong and can't win.  The lockup deals are considerably cheaper than actually going through arbitration, and in the aggregate are not particularly risky.

So I don't think it would be accurate to say that not keeping C.C. allows us to do those things, simply because I don't believe they'd for one moment have considered spending money on C.C. that would foreclose our being able to keep even one good young player for the full six-plus years.

Where this does potentially help is in (a) keeping flexibility to sign those totally unexciting depth players, and (b) potentially reaching a little further to retain our next round of free agents.  Victor, Westbrook, Lee and Betancourt are locked up through 2010, Peralta through 2011.  As I've said before, it takes a little optimism to assume, at this early date, that any one of them will be particularly desirable for another long-term deal.

But with C.C.'s contract off the books, does that inspire the team to get with Victor's agents a year from now and do a small extension as they did with C.C. in 2005?  (Meaning, picking up the 2010 option a year early and adding two more years to the deal.)  Yeah, I think very possibly it does.

So I'm not sure what parts of that you will like or won't like, but that's how I see it.

by Jay on Feb 16, 2008 12:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Very interesting stuff. I find this sort of talk more stimulating and cathartic than talk of strictly CC, looking towards the future and what this lack of a signing means. Maybe the term "Plan B" was a bit of a misnomer, but the reason I brought it up was that I was genuinely interested in what else they could have up their sleeve and where this will lead us.

by supermarioelia on Feb 16, 2008 12:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
More stimulating and cathartic and ultimately more meaningful.  Any roster-building analysis that is centric toward one particular player is not going to be particularly meaningful, and I think that should be obvious to anyone who pauses to think about it.

by Jay on Feb 16, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Jay said:

"But with C.C.'s contract off the books, does that inspire the team to get with Victor's agents a year from now and do a small extension as they did with C.C. in 2005?  (Meaning, picking up the 2010 option a year early and adding two more years to the deal.)  Yeah, I think very possibly it does."

Garko appears to be the 1B for the forseeable time period and Hafner is signed as the DH.  So are you assuming Victor stays behind the plate for the majority of his playing time in 2001 and 2012 ?

by SpringTrainingFun on Feb 16, 2008 2:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I assume nothing in terms of what will happen, but let's start by assuming a few basic operating principles:

  • Victor will remain the starting catcher as long as his defensive contribution doesn't exceed in the negative the difference (in offensive production) between an average first baseman and an average catcher (say, about 30 runs) and as long as he is healthy enough to do so.

  • In the event Victor starts spends more time at first base than catcher, he is likely to be both a better hitter and a better defender than Garko -- that is, even taking into account Garko is three years younger, Victor is simply a superior hitting talent and all-around athlete.

  • Victor will be cheaper to re-sign if he's moved out of the starting catcher spot.

I see Garko as a similar player to Crisp.  He's a solid everyday player, but not so valuable that you'd hesitate to trade him given a strategic opportunity, particularly after he hits arbitration, and he will be attractive to other teams in a Lyle Overbayish kind of way.

That suggests to me that if Victor can't stay behind the plate but remains viable as an everyday player in the lineup, he will end up the starting first baseman, and that we would trade Garko in order to extend Victor's tenure with the team beyond 2010.

There are a lot of different things that could prevent that from happening.  Victor might not stay healthy, or he might stay extremely productive as a catcher.  Garko could turn out to be better than currently projected.  We have several prospects that could emerge at first base, too.

An interesting side-note on this is that Jordan Brown is a pretty good bet to be an extremely similar player to Garko -- an aggressive hitter with good strike-zone instincts, but just-okay power and defense as a first baseman -- except batting from the left side rather than the right.  This sets up an interesting scenario where Shoppach and Brown form a two-spot platoon, with Victor moving to first base against every lefty starter.  If Brown tears up Buffalo in 2008, we could see Garko traded in favor of this configuration as early as 2009.

by Jay on Feb 16, 2008 2:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
It's interesting, I know there's a lot of built in extensions coming in 2009 (Victor, Grady, Peralta, etc) but there's what, now $30MM coming off the books after this season?  I'm rounding, but:

*Sabathia - #9MM
*Blake - $6MM
*Byrd - $7MM
*Borowski - $4MM
*Fultz - $2MM
*Michaels - $2MM

And that's if we don't trade Cliff Lee (which is certainly less likely with Sabathia as good as gone).  We never spend free agent dollars frivolously.  Impossible to guess, but I wonder what we would spend it on.  

by cheech99 on Feb 16, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Um, yeah, but you're missing the other piece of the puzzle, which is all the salary increases built into contracts from 2008 to 2009, plus maybe one or two guys hitting arbitration.  It adds up fast.

by Jay on Feb 16, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Well I led of my post with acknowledging the other piece of the puzzle; don't see how I'm missing it, but yeah, I hear what you're saying.  Anyway, yeah, I get about $11.5MM in salary increases to Hafner, Betancourt, Sizemore, Peralta, Martinez and whatever Fausto gets in either a multi-year deal or in arbitration.

I just wonder, what does the team do with $15MM or so in the offseason, when more teams are smarter about locking up their talent, less free agents are available, we're less likely to bid on these free agents because they're less talented, etc.  

by cheech99 on Feb 16, 2008 6:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Right, and that is a big part of the argument for over-spending on C.C.:  What else are we going to spend it on?  Might as well get the best deals you can from your homegrown talent, and extend them early, because those are going to be better values than free agency by far.

This is, to me, a key difference between the Hart and Shapiro approaches, the proactive approach and spending flexibility on retention.  Among the five guys who will reach free agency in 2010-11, I won't be surprised if we keep two of them -- and possibly the only two we really want, whoever that may turn out to be.

The other option is to spend a chunk of flexibility to acquire an overpaid player from another team, someone with perhaps two years left on his contract, like a Bobby Abreu situation.  Our $15 million is as good as any other team's.

by Jay on Feb 17, 2008 10:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Forgot at least one ...

2 years - Kobayashi, March 2008

by Jay on Feb 15, 2008 9:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
i feel bad for the DT'er.  Dude wrote a veritable book on CC possiblities this offseason.

by Brick. on Feb 14, 2008 7:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
No worries, Brick...it was cathartic.
I hope that what I wrote adequately laid out why the two sides are doing what they are doing.

C.C. thinks he'll get his 6 to 7 years guaranteed based on Zito and Santana while the Indians (based on the success, or lack thereof of contracts that long) rightly balked on guaranteeing the 6th year.

I had surmised that anything past a 4-year, $89M extension (which gives him 5 years of $20M per and was probably a stretch in terms of dollars) was foolish for the Tribe to do.

Knowing that C.C. WILL get more than that from someone after 2008, I don't think anyone's surprised.
Disappointed?  Probably in that Sabathia will exercise his right to test the market that surely won't include the Indians' offer, but not surprised.

by The DiaTriber on Feb 14, 2008 9:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
i think if i were you i'd have been tempted to post something today like:

"so, uh, all that stuff about CC, uh, nevermind - he wants all the benjamins he can get for as long as he can get them.  next week, i'll discuss how long a deal we should extend fausto for and the dollars that might make sense."

by Brick. on Feb 14, 2008 9:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
That was the knee-jerk reaction, if it could be found somewhere amidst a stream of profanity.

by The DiaTriber on Feb 15, 2008 9:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
With this story getting wide coverage right now, I wonder if Shapiro is all of a sudden fielding a few extra calls from league GMs...

by APV on Feb 15, 2008 10:27 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Here's my two cents on this ... an email I sent to C.C. thought the contact info on his website


CC:

I have been an Indians fan for many years.  I can remember watching you come up with the organization and the excitement of seeing you develop into one of the best pitchers in the league.  The great games you put together, especially last season, will stay in my memory for years to come.

During this off-season, I was hopeful that you'd stay with the team, since all of the signals seemed to point to you putting together a long term deal.  Everyone was saying the right things and making indications that a deal could get done.

From what I know, the team made an offer to you that amounts to its largest financial commitment to any player.  Over the winter, you commented that you were looking forward to getting to Spring Training to continue discussions on a contract before the season began.

Yesterday, you unilaterally called off negotiations.

I can understand not wanting to be distracted with contract issues during the season.  I cannot understand why you no longer want to engage in discussions during Spring Training.  I can only conclude that your initial comments about negotiating were disingenuous and that you never really intended to engage the Indians in meaningful negotiations for a long term deal.

Since I do not see any realistic way the Indians can sign you to a long term deal, I would like to thank you now for all that you have done for the team.  I look forward to seeing you compete with the team in 2008, and hope that you'll leave us a World Series Championship to remember you by.

Leonard Seaman
Edison, New Jersey

</tongue-in-cheek>

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Feb 15, 2008 11:01 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
cc:  "Huh?"

www.dictionary.com......u-n-i-l-a-t-e-r-a-l-l-y.

cc:  "Huh?"

by Brick. on Feb 15, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Like he's really going to read it.

Some handler's going to tell him there's a guy in NJ who's pissed that he's gonna make boatloads more $$$  as a FA for a major market team.

CC:  "Oh, ok...."

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Feb 15, 2008 11:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
its difficult for me to say i said so---months ago---just my opinion, but i see no reason for mid-season to trade the guy and have the distraction and media and fan circus around every start the guy makes.  i imagine shapiros phone may be ringing right now.  i have no issue getting some warm bodies for him--right now--and letting the chips fall where they may. its just me, i know, but i see no sense in waiting, i think its dangerous to do so--the man is obviously leaving, i say get what you can while he is a hot commodity and his value will not likely get higher---as long as we throw in marte in any deal....maybe we can trade back for kouzmanoff...

by rustyparts on Feb 15, 2008 12:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
When Brick fails to capitalize words, it's at least charming. This blather is just painful to read.

by supermarioelia on Feb 15, 2008 1:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
At least he got in his anti-Marte shot ... oh wait.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Feb 15, 2008 2:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Haven't been around in the last week, been dealing with an illness in the family, so that has put this into perspective.

CC's out the door, and I really thought he'd stay. I think he probably was looking at giving us a discount - just not a $40 million and two extra years discount.

I don't think we can jump on him, because if he puts together another year like he had last year he could easily top the Zito deal from some idiot team (Dodgers?) I know the argument, "Well at some point how much money do you need", but $40 million more is a. lot. of. money. Can't fault him for that.

I also think we should stick with him, unless the Dodgers offer Kershaw-Kemp-Broxton-etc or some other crazy team decides to offer up its entire farm system.

Fausto's our #1. Starting now.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Feb 15, 2008 12:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The Indians had no real intention of offering C.C the kind of contract he is looking for.  This was just a dog and pony show to appease the fans and a smear campaign to make C.C look like the bad guy.  Lets be honest here, the Indians will never break the bank on any player, ever.  We will never commit to a player the kind of money C.C is looking for.  It would be in our best interests to trade him at his highest value (i.e now) as opposed to going into the season where it is likely he will go on the D.L at least once maybe more or even for a prolonged period of time.

This was a major Gaffe in my opinion by the front office.  Why put the guy in a bind like this and force him to reject your pathetic offer.  I wouldn't sign C.C because of his future and current health and injury risks but plenty of teams would love the opportunity to trade for and sign a play of C.C history.  Now is the time to start rebuilding for the future.  Shapiro didn't make any strike while the iron is hot deals this winter and none can be excepted from this front office.  Shapiro's best asset as a GM is finding value in a rebuilding mode so why don't we do that instead of playing out the string and only recouping a draft pick, especially since Shapiro does not seem to draft particularly well.

All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident LGT kinesiologist! Straw,Drink

by E5 on Feb 15, 2008 1:47 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I think they made him the best they could. But we just can't afford that kind of risk in Shapiro's eyes. I don't think it came down to salary/year. It was most likely contract lenght. CC will want 6-7 and he will get that from some other team. To say that it was smear is just silly.

You are looking for a "strike while the iron is hot" type of deal? What do you think holding on to a Cy Young caliber pitcher for 1 year is? Shapiro could easily get more talent that we will in the draft (especially considering Shapiro's drafting skills), but he won't to that.

Shapiro is in WIN NOW mode. He will not mortgage the future to do it with bad contracts, but he will surely hold on to a Cy Young winning ace on a 1 year below market deal. He would have to get blown away to let go of CC and for good reason. We are going to be an excellent team in 2008 and have as good a chance as anyone to win it all.

by KevinV on Feb 15, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I went ahead and distilled this immense travesty into a sequence of smaller travesties:

"a smear campaign to make CC look like the bad guy"

"Why put the guy in a bind like this and force him to reject your pathetic offer."

"Now is the time to start rebuilding for the future"

"especially since Shapiro does not seem to draft particularly well."

Edgar, none of these things are true and you can't prove any of them.  Please refrain from blatantly mischaracterizing the work of our Front Office and our current level of talent.  The Cleveland Indians won as many games as your favorite team last year and they are well-positioned to do the same this year.

by NickFantana on Feb 15, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Nick,

Thanks for the Cliffnotes version of this E5 rant.  It made it easier (and funnier) to read.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Feb 15, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I hate to be on the side of the Devil, but I agree with 5 about one thing: both the Indians and CC knew months ago that it wasn't gonna work out.  

Like I said earlier: a deal mid-way between what the Tribe could pay and what CC can get on the open market would be a bad deal for CC and a bad deal for the Tribe.  It was doomed from day one.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 15, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I disagree...how would an extension that ended up being 5 yrs/$100MM have been bad?

by Nat on Feb 15, 2008 11:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Nat I day or two ago I posted a half-baked 2explanation as to why it would be bad or at least unthinkable to give CC $20/year.  It consisted mostly of the Tribe's historical payrolls.  I assumed everybody could figure out the percentages on the fly - shoudda said that.  Anyway here's the Tribe's yearly payrolls, the biggest contract that year and the percent of total.

Year    Total Payroll    Biggest Contract    % of Payroll
2007    $61,673,267     $8,750,000     14.19%
2006    $56,031,500     $7,000,000     12.49%
2005    $41,502,500     $7,000,000     16.87%
2004    $34,319,300     $7,250,000     21.13%
2003    $48,584,834     $7,166,667     14.75%
2002    $78,909,499     $8,000,000     10.14%
2001    $93,360,000     $10,000,000     10.71%
2000    $76,500,000     $8,666,667     11.33%
1999    $73,857,962     $8,225,000     11.14%
1998    $59,033,499     $7,500,000     12.70%
1997    $54,130,232     $7,050,000     13.02%
1996    $45,317,914     $5,500,000     12.14%
1995    $35,185,500     $4,500,000     12.79%
1994    $28,490,167     $3,000,000     10.53%
1993    $15,717,667     $1,700,000     10.82%
1992    $8,236,166     $950,000     11.53%
1991    $18,270,000     $2,500,000     13.68%
1990    $15,152,000     $1,750,000     11.55%

You'll note that on only one occasion, 2004, did the largest contract exceed 20% of the total payroll - and that, I content - was an aberation: Matt Lawton.  In every other year the largest contract did not exceed 15% of the total payroll.  BTW the largest contract in '92 was Felix Fermin for godsakes.  In '90 it was Keith Hernandez.  Oh my aching head!

Historically the Indians have never committed that high a percentage of payroll to any one single player - never.  And I don't think they were about to break with precendent with CC - even if you project the payroll to jump to $120 to $150M.  It just doesn't fit with their model or their history.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 16, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Yeah I read that, and I should have elaborated more on what I meant.  I don't disagree with your statement that management hasn't done that in the past.  What I do disagree with is your statement that:

a deal mid-way between what the Tribe could pay and what CC can get on the open market would be a bad deal for CC and a bad deal for the Tribe

In reality, I don't think it would be bad for either side.  I'm not going to rehash everything that everyone else has said more eloquently than I can regarding salary structures, market shares and win shares, etc. And there are valid points to both sides.  If it was cut and dry either way we wouldn't have a thread with >200 comments.

The only known fact is that one of the two parties thought it was a bad deal.  I disagree, and think that in reality it wouldn't have been bad for either side to make the deal that was the compromise.  It seems that CC was less willing to compromise and that's his prerogative.  All I meant is that he would be getting $100M for 5 years of work (I'll assume he's working out the entire offseason and give him 5 full years), plus the option of signing another deal with significant time to be a quality pitcher. Seriously, it's kind of ridiculous to complain about that and say it's a "bad deal".  

The irony is that it seems management was more willing to compromise by making an offer that is considerable higher (both $ and years) than what they might have been comfortable with.  So even though they came more than halfway (IMO), they're left standing in the cold.

by Nat on Feb 16, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I don't think for C.C. to take such a deal would be stupid, and I don't think it was insulting for the Indians to offer it.  As I've illustrated many, many times, it was well in line with contracts accepted by similarly skilled starting pitchers in similar contract situations.

That said, it can't be denied that all of those pitchers left tens of millions on the table by passing up free agency.  Just because it's normative doesn't mean that it's a solid business decision.  My take on this is that you make that decision for reasons far beyond business, having to do with your family situation, your day-to-day quality of life, the potential contribution of your current organization (coaching, training, medical care) to your future success, and your sense of your own legacy.  If you have factors in those areas that are worth more to you than adding another $25M or so to your pile of $100M-plus, then you do a contract extension.  If you don't, then you opt for free agency, which as a pure business is the only sound one.

Now look at the team side.  As a fan, I badly wanted this to happen, and I felt comfortable that as far as Shapiro was willing to go, it couldn't be that stupid of a move.

(As a side-note, I've talked in the past about a "historic significance" value that might have gone into budgeting for Thome beyond what makes sense to pay for on-field value year-to-year.  I don't know that I felt that C.C. is quite at the same level as Thome in this regard, where you could talk seriously that there very well might be a statue of him next to Bob Feller's someday.  C.C.'s extension was unlikely to get him past Lemon's 207 wins (let alone Harder's 223), or even up to 2160 strikeouts to surpass Sudden Sam as our top lefty -- or to get him into the HOF.  Thome, on the other hand, was/is already the franchise leader in home runs, and over the course of his extension was likely to end up more than 200 HR ahead of Albert Belle while surpassing Averill's 3200 total bases (and Speaker and Lajoie along th way) and more or less finalizing a HOF resume.  The point being, Sabathia might be just as great of a player as Thome, but he doesn't yet have Thome's historic significance to the franchise, and one more extension would not get him there.)

What was I saying?  Oh, yeah, whatever Shapiro was going to be willing to pay couldn't have been that stupid.  Right.  But what it would be is on the outer limits of sensibility if not slightly past it.  So speaking dispassionately as a guy "rooting  for the laundry," one can't be too disappointed that it won't happen, since it would have been a coin-flip at best as to whether it was purely a "smart" move.

Since we're not just fans of the laundry but of the individual players, it's hard to see it that way.  I am disappointed.  I openly rooted for us to do something a little more risky than we probably should in order to keep this one great player.  That was and is in my heart, and my brain was willing to go along with it.  But once you get my heart out of the room, and out of earshot, my brain will pull you close and tell you that extending C.C. would have been a gamble, and not a particularly smart one.

by Jay on Feb 16, 2008 3:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Very small correction ... Thome would have extended his HR lead to well over 300.  He already is 265 ahead of Belle's 242 with another hypothetical season left to go on that hypothetical extension.

Hafner, with 141, will very likely pass Belle and Manny to move into second place during the 2011 season.  Favorite Toy projects him for 331 home runs, but only about 300 by the end of his current deal (2012).

Taking this tangent totally off the rails ... this season, Victor will probably surpass Alomar and Hegan as our leading catcher in HR and RBI, and in hits, doubles and total bases in 2009.  Hegan's 45 triples and Alomar's 24 SB appear to be safe, however, as Victor's career total in each category is exactly 1.

Sizemore needs only 10 HR to pass Kenny Lofton, and he's already passed Speaker, but he has quite a ways to go to catch either man in most any other category.

by Jay on Feb 16, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Why Jay, you ol' softy, you let your emotions influence your analysis - who woulda guessed?

I sure hope you're right about Hafner.  I'm afraid he might go the way of another Tribe legend, Hal Trotsky a guy who lit it up from age 21 to 27 - note the ages - and hit 204 home runs in that period but only 23 more afterward.

Sizemore and Tris Speaker in the same sentence - one can only hope.  And Victor he's damn good, damn good.  If only he could hit and field like Johnny Romano.  But I'll take him over any - any - catcher in the majors right now.

And I think we've found a middle ground regarding CC after months of posts.  Signing CC - for the right price - would/could be a big gamble.  My head overrides my heart on this one - sounds like yours does too.  Loved to have him along for our next 4 or 5 WS wins, but if he doesn't wanna come along for the ride that's his tough luck

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 16, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Blanket statements with no evidence is just plain silly.

by Brick. on Feb 15, 2008 3:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Oh yeah, one other thing.  What's this about rebuilding?  Dude we're built now!  

Your boyz just barely got by us last year - and we're gonna be even stronger this year - with no change in the line-up whatsoever.  I'm looking forward to slapping those whiney bitches from Boston around this year - almost as much as beating the crap outta those douche nozzles from New Yawk.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 15, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Your boyz just barely got by us last year

This would actually be tons of fun, pretending that Edgar is a Sox fan all year whenever he gets ridiculous.

Edgar: "The Indians stink, they can't hit, blow up the team"

LGT: "Alright there Mr. Sox fan, how's Schilling's arm holding up. We'll see you in October."

I'm giddy.

by supermarioelia on Feb 15, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Whatya mean pretending.  Haven't you followed Edgar's post with bated breath like me?  Edgat clearly worships at the Shrine of Epstein and thinks that every player on the BoSox team is superior to ours.   He knew just knew that those Beantown Heroes would come back from 3 down to beat us.

I don't see why we even bothered to play that series.  Shoudda just forfeited it and avoided the humiliation.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 16, 2008 1:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
See what I mean?  It's like when I called all the Yankee fans jabrones and they came over here screamin' like a bunch of jabrones.  I love this.
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 16, 2008 1:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I didn't know that it would happen only that it was likely.  The Red Sox have very talented players with confidence and mental toughness.  The Indians players as a whole lack mental toughness and that was very evident during our collapse in the ALCS.  This lack of confidence is a consequence of lacking superior talent and a manager without confidence.  You also can't discount the poor physical conditioning of some of your key players and lack of post season experience as major reasons we fell apart like soggy bread.
All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident LGT kinesiologist! Straw,Drink

by E5 on Feb 16, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Blanket statements with no evidence is just plain silly.

by Brick. on Feb 16, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Where was all your talk of mental toughness when the Indians eliminated the Twins just as they were starting to surge, and then eliminated the Tigers two weeks later?

Where was it when the Indians won 6 out of the first 8 playoff games, against the more veteran Yankees and Red Sox -- despite getting a total of two quality starts out of six from their top three pitchers?

This kind of talk is cheap and stupid.  There are any number of those games that could not have been won without mental toughness.

by Jay on Feb 16, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Jay, goomba, don't you get it?  It's all about the laundry - the uniforms.  Guys in Red Sox uni's are much more mentally tough than players in those sissified Indian uniforms.  It's not like they're professional athletes who've overcome adversity all their lives or anything like that.

And the conditioning thing.  Haven't you read E's tag - resident LGT kinesiologist?  That's a kinda trainer, I think.  See E thinks that if the Tribe FO was really smart they'd fire all of those degreed, professional trainer/hacks and replace them with his marvelousness.  Why he'd have 50 pounds offa CC's big ass in no time.  And that troublesome hammy that DD's got?  Why E would have that straightened out by Opening Day.  And the Pronkster - E would have that hidden hitch in his swing cured before the St. Patty's Day Parade.

Nope, you can't argue with E's logic - mostly cuz there ain't any.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 16, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
You know, if I didn't know better, I'd think that E5 is really Frank Lane.  Ain't he dead Chuck?

"Rebuild NOW, trade Grady to the Red Sox!"

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Feb 18, 2008 10:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Clearly, E5 is here to "stir the pot" and has somehow gained a shred of credibility within this posting community. Let us assume that he somehow could know anything about the Indians' mental toughness and physical conditioning. Wait, since that couldn't be possible, he is obviously full of Dybzinski.

by elsandito on Feb 16, 2008 5:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Two disagreements!
Hello E5,

First, with this statement:

"The Red Sox have very talented players with confidence and mental toughness.  The Indians players as a whole lack mental toughness and that was very evident during our collapse in the ALCS."

If the Red Sox are that "talented" and that "mentally tough," how then did they go down 3-1 to the "mentally weak" Indians?  If they were that superior, don't you think they would have swept us?  They swept an Angels' team that have players with more postseason experience than us, yet they barely get past us in 7 games?

Sorry, but that's a weak argument in my opinion.  And from what I read at "Over The Monster," even diehard Red Sox fans weren't as confident as you were about the Red Sox coming back - they were fortunate in a sense that neither CC or Fausto could finish them off.  Westbrook matched Dice-K pretty well, but between Skinner's debacle at 3B (sorry to bring that up again) and the fact Blake couldn't come through in the clutch, that gave the Red Sox the opening they needed to widen the lead and finish it off, and to their credit, they did.

Certainly, they're having prior postseason experience didn't hurt, but being that they barely got past us should speak more volumes about the Indians than about the Red Sox.  Heck, few, if any, had us getting past the Yankees to even face the Red Sox, let alone forcing the Red Sox to 7 games, and especially without CC and Fausto winning a single game in any of their 4 starts, though we did win Fausto's first start.

The second disagreement I have is about this statement:

"You also can't discount the poor physical conditioning of some of your key players and lack of post season experience as major reasons we fell apart like soggy bread."

The first part, the "poor physical conditioning" - seems inaccurate in my opinion.  The Indians' training staff was just honored for having the fewest hours of disabled list time (by Will Carroll and Baseball Prospectus, I believe.)  

Now, I presume you're referring to the Indians being "winded" during the ALCS?  I'm not sure there's any way to avoid that when you've never been played in the ALCS before and I don't think there's much the Indians' training staff could have done about any of the players being "winded" or feeling the effects of the long season.  But certainly, they didn't look like they were huffing and puffing any more than the Red Sox players, and they hadn't been to the ALCS since 2004 (missed the playoffs in 2006 and lost to the White Sox in the ALDS in 2005,) so again, I don't think that's a strong argument, no offense.

Just my 2 cents.

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Feb 16, 2008 9:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Should be
"... when you've NEVER PLAYED..." - sorry about that!
May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Feb 16, 2008 9:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Can someone please remember that Edgar predicted CC to go on the DL for a long time this season?  Please?  So we can shut him up come playoff time?

Not that his insistent talk about Hafner's impending off-season elbow surgery has made him any less ridiculous.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Feb 15, 2008 10:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
My question is does C.C. even care about winning?  Seriously, where is he going to sign that will offer him a better chance at a championship than Cleveland for the next few seasons?  

This whole situation, from the rejected offer (4-5 years, $17-18 mil) to the refusal to even try and reach a compromise by Sabathia's agents, makes it painfully obvious that its all about the money.

by Pronk33 on Feb 15, 2008 4:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Red Sox have just as good of chance or better at being a very good team and will offer C.C the kind of money he is looking for.  Seriously a Cy Young award winning lefty is worth a boat load of cash on the open market.  He is going to hold out for the last dollar and still be on a very good team.  At best the Indians offer was low ball and more likely insulting given his resume.
All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident LGT kinesiologist! Straw,Drink

by E5 on Feb 15, 2008 5:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I bet he would sign with a San Francisco or Texas type team if they threw enough money at him.  That was my point.  Calling Cleveland's offer a "low ball" and "insulting" doesn't make much sense when you compare it to the contract Oswalt, Buerhle, Peavy, and other comparable pitchers received (there was a lengthy discussion on how Santana and Zito are outliers in terms of contract size, just scroll up).

by Pronk33 on Feb 15, 2008 7:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No offense, but $17-$18 mill./year is not a
"boat load of cash on the open market"?

No offense, but the Indians' offer is not "low ball and more likely insulting given his resume."  As Pronk33 mentioned - Zambrano, Peavy, Oswalt, and others have taken similar (though slightly less than I think the Indians were offering) deals, and arguably, only Peavy matched or came close to matching CC's year in 2007, plus is probably the only one who is remotely close to CC's present and predicted future ability, yet he took a deal similar to the one CC rejected.

Really, the problem is not the Indians - the problem is with the system MLB has, including the lack of a salary cap; the tax threshold they installed is not stopping the Yankees and Red Sox from signing FAs for $20-$30 mill./year (A-Rod, Dice-K, etc.) - how is a significantly smaller market like the Indians with much fewer resources supposedly to compete with that?  Don't forget that the Angels have signed 2 CFers for exorbitant amounts over the past two offseasons as well, so the Angels aren't really being stopped by the tax either.  That of course gives them an advantage of being a better team than the Indians in the future because they can sign that premium talent pretty easily, whereas we can't, certainly not if we want to build a solid TEAM, and more often than not, one solid TEAM will beat one great player, which is the philosophy the Indians and other small-market teams stand by, with convincing results, as evidenced by the Indians' play over most of the last 15 years and the Twins' play for most of the last 7 years.

The tax provides some relief, but not enough to level the playing field, so blaming the Indians for not going exorbitant on Sabathia, regardless of how well he performs, is inaccurate in my opinion.  The large-market teams can do that easily and do quite well even if the signing is a total or partial bust.  If the Indians, Twins, A's, Blue Jays, and others do that and it's a partial or total bust, they're crippled for the next several seasons - look at the Blue Jays' dilemmas with both Burnett and Ryan - it severely limited their ability to make any significant upgrades, which is why they had to look for a closer from within (with very limited success) and why they really couldn't add any significant starter while Burnett was out (only getting McGowan into the rotation after AJ returned.)

Therefore, the Indians' offer is not "low-ball" and the Indians aren't the problem; MLB's salary structure is the real problem behind teams like the Twins and Indians not being able to keep guys like Santana and Sabathia.  Those two teams can't sign those guys without destroying the chance to build a competitive team around them, something that is not beyond the Mets' or other large-market teams' reach.  They benefit by the current system we have, we don't, and they take advantage of it, which makes the Indians' and Twins' ability to match or outplay them on the playing field that much more impressive.

Just my 2 cents - no offense.

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Feb 16, 2008 2:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: No offense, but $17-$18 mill./year is not a
I wish people would stop lumping Toronto in with small market teams who can't afford to sign players. They're owned by the biggest media mogul in Canada who has given Ricciardi carte blanche to make whatever signings he has felt necessary from year to year. Any issues the Jays have with money crunches is because Ricciardi makes terrible decisions, not because they're limited financially. Burnett, Ryan, Thomas...it's only a matter of time until JP gets the axe because fans are tired of the fact he flip flops between "building for the future" and "competing now" every year or so with no real long-term plan.

by supermarioelia on Feb 16, 2008 10:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: No offense, but $17-$18 mill./year is not a
And I wish that people would stop referencing the owners finances when estimating what is and isn't a reasonable team payroll.  Successful businessmen - and every team in MLB is owned by a successful businessman - run their enterprises as stand-alone operations.  That is each and every division must be profitable by itself and not supported by their other enterprises.  Ted Rogers - the Jays owner - maybe worth a buck or two, but so is Carl Pohlad - the guy behind the Twins.  But the only relevant financial parameter is team income - not the net worth of the owner.  
"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Feb 16, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: No offense, but $17-$18 mill./year is not a
I agree with you, and the same thing bothers me when people criticize Dolan for being filthy rich and not spending, but this is somewhat immaterial to what I was talking about.

The fact is that Rogers has shown that he's willing to spend in the upper 1/3 of team salaries (at least for the time being) even before he sees revenues increase, and any issues that Ricciardi has with being financially handcuffed he has brought upon himself with foolish contracts.

That's not to say that they have the flexibility of the Sox, Yanks or I guess even the Mariners. But to lump them in with the markets of the Indians and Twins always irks me.

by supermarioelia on Feb 16, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
It may be wrong to assume that we will never get more for CC than we can now. Let's say a large market team sustains injury to a front end of the rotation guy. And let's say CC is pitching well and it's only 6 -10 weeks into the season. I would think CC's value to that team could look a bit higher and a CC trade may fetch more talent at that time. I trust "Cool Hand" Shapiro to play his hand well.

by elsandito on Feb 15, 2008 5:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Many astute observations by Jay.  I don't think the inability to sign Sabathia is all that crippling.  the last 2 years have been outstanding, but this is a pitcher with a lifetime 3.82 ERA and a total bust in the playoffs in 2007.   The Dodger prospects of Kershaw, Kemp and Broxton would be a great deal.  I would take Hughes and Cano from the Yankees as well.  I trust Shapiro to make a shrewd play.  But he may be too timid in going after a deal now, when it may be a good time.  It is hard to believe that physically CC can hold up for 5-6 more years without some injuries.  

by DenverIndian on Feb 16, 2008 10:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
C.C is set up for a similar fate to Carl Pavano.
All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident LGT kinesiologist! Straw,Drink

by E5 on Feb 16, 2008 10:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

In regards to perhaps faltering due to an injury
like Pavano, perhaps - only time will tell on that.  

But even if that would occur, C.C. will be remembered as a FAR better pitcher than Pavano, being that Pavano only had one great season (2004 w/FLA) and one above-average season (2000 w/MON.)  

CC has had 2 great seasons (certainly 2007, and in my mind, 2006 - his ERA was only 3.22 and his BB and K ratios both went up, yet only won 12 games due to poor run support - CC has been far more consistent since 2005, making me think both 2006 and 2007 have been great seasons for him) and 5 above-average seasons (2001-2005,) so in terms of them having "similar fates," I don't think that would be an accurate phrase, since CC would be remembered as the better pitcher by a good margin even if his career would end tomorrow (hopefully not.)

Just my 2 cents - no offense.

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Feb 17, 2008 5:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: In regards to perhaps faltering due
Joe, I admire you for having the patience to answer his idiotic posts with well thought out answers. He really doesn't deserve your time though.

by supermarioelia on Feb 17, 2008 6:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Both will pitch for the Yankees?
I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Feb 18, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: CC sez "Have Faith"!
Let's go out on the silly limb and pretend it's true. Why would he rather sign after the season than before?

by Voltaire on Feb 19, 2008 5:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: CC sez "Have Faith"!
He claims the last reup negotiations distracted him during ST and the beginning of the season. Whatever - its just a fig leaf on an olive branch at the end of the silly limb.

by mcrose on Feb 19, 2008 10:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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