Sabathia rules out contract extension
Through a statement posted on his official web site, C.C. Sabathia has ruled out further negotiations on a contract extension until after the 2008 season.
Let me be really clear about this: This means C.C. will not be a Cleveland Indian after 2008. Despite his polite encouragement, there is no real rational reason to believe he will choose to re-sign with the Indians once he is eligible for free agency at the end of the season. This announcement also contradicts directly his prior statements, in which he said he intended to engage with his agents in the process of working out a deal once he reported to Spring Training.
Even the most elite players often opt to extend contracts with their current teams before they reach free agency, passing up significant potential money in the process. While it would have been an uncharacteristic risk, the Indians conceivably could have extended C.C.'s contract along the lines of other top pitchers in similar circumstances. Indeed, the Indians reportedly made an opening offer to Sabathia in the range of $70 million over four additional years, ending in 2012, an offer more generous than those accepted by Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay, Mark Buerhle and Jake Peavy over the past 18 months.
It is unknown whether Sabathia's agents ever seriously engaged the Indians in negotiations after that initial offer. No subsequent offer, counter-offer or discussion was ever reported. What is known is that the Indians will not be serious bidders in a free agent market which in Sabathia's case conceivably will exceed $150 million. And hometown discounts, to the extent that they are ever given, are rarely given by major players who are already looking at competing offers from other teams.
If Sabathia had any serious intention of accepting a shorter (and thus smaller) contractual commitment from the Indians, at any time, there is no conceivable reason why he wouldn't instruct his attorneys to strike the best deal possible right now. At this moment, his value is at its peak, and he faces significant risk of a devaluing (or even career-ending) injury in the coming year. He simply stands far more to gain by re-signing with the Indians now rather than doing so at the end of the season, and the Indians' bottom line is not going to move much in that time. The inescapable conclusion, therefore, is that he does not intend to settle for a shorter contractual commitment with the Indians, now or at any future point.
So unless Sabathia unexpectedly does a 180 on his negotiating stance mid-year, he really is as good as gone. That being the only reasonable supposition, the Indians are now obliged to consider seriously any trade offers involving Sabathia over the next month, and one can assume that they will take seriously any offer that preserves their overall ability to compete in 2008.
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by maledicta on
Feb 14, 2008 2:06 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
CC will get a chance early to show if he is still improving. His 2nd start of the season will be in Oakland (essentially his home-town team), where he has been nototiously unsuccessful during his career.
by palcal on
Feb 14, 2008 2:38 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by DocNo on
Feb 14, 2008 5:48 AM EST
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by pdx on
Feb 14, 2008 5:34 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by Spidey on
Feb 14, 2008 8:55 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by mkwng on
Feb 14, 2008 9:17 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by tribe204854 on
Feb 14, 2008 11:09 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
While they may see some appealing offers early on, there is always going to be the temptation that one of the big spenders will be a couple games out around the all-star break and willing to shell out prospects and some show-ready talent for an impact pitcher like CC.
CC just moved you into check Shapiro, tough move.
by bigbrabbs on
Feb 14, 2008 6:26 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by Rachie on
Feb 14, 2008 7:07 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by mauichuck on
Feb 14, 2008 7:26 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by NickFantana on
Feb 14, 2008 8:50 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by mauichuck on
Feb 14, 2008 9:32 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by supermarioelia on
Feb 14, 2008 10:32 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by stuart dean on
Feb 14, 2008 7:49 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by rog on
Feb 14, 2008 10:41 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by maledicta on
Feb 14, 2008 7:53 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Fausto
Westbrook
Laffey
Cliff Lee
Byrd
Miller?
does not scare anybody.
by gte619n on
Feb 14, 2008 7:58 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
It's time to look to a future that does not include C.C. in a Tribe uniform as he has made it very clear as to his long term intentions.
Business is business. Trade him to the highest bidder, preferably a NL team, but I wouldn't preclude a trade to ANY team if the Indians get a great offer.
by SpringTrainingFun on
Feb 14, 2008 8:11 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by mauichuck on
Feb 14, 2008 8:16 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
CC to the Dodgers
Kershaw and Kemp to the Tribe?
by gte619n on
Feb 14, 2008 8:15 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by Fundamentals on
Feb 14, 2008 10:54 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by ASP on
Feb 14, 2008 8:33 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Can we lift the swearing ban for the day? CC has really broken my heart with this.
by NickFantana on
Feb 14, 2008 8:52 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by supermarioelia on
Feb 14, 2008 9:02 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
My first reaction though is frustration at not even knowing who to be most upset with since we have no clue what the last offer was. Is Shap being cheap? Is C.C. demanding too much? Of course based on how the negotiations have gone so far we'll have no idea what the answers are until he either signs or is traded. So for now we just sit in limbo being mad at the world in general.
by supermarioelia on
Feb 14, 2008 9:14 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Like I said before, $20M per year is just too damn much money for anyone on the Tribe's payroll - and CC will get every nickel of that as a free agent. But it's not too much for half a dozen other ML teams. Here's all you really need to know. Cleveland's the 24th largest market in America and shrinking. There's no way in hell the Indians can generate the same revenue as the top five metro areas. Simple economics.
Like Michael Corleone usta say,"it's just business".
by mauichuck on
Feb 14, 2008 9:41 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_of_United_States_Combined_Statistical_Areas
by randallhank on
Feb 15, 2008 2:36 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
No, anyway you slice it we can't compete economically with the Big Boyz. We gotta out smart 'em that's all.
by mauichuck on
Feb 15, 2008 7:08 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by Voltaire on
Feb 14, 2008 9:27 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by Roger Dorn on
Feb 14, 2008 9:29 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by afh4 on
Feb 14, 2008 9:37 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The tribe cannot get Philip Hughes and another prospect for CC. They can't even get just Hughes.
CC has the most value for a team competing for the playoffs. He only gets traded if the tribe falls out of contention in 08. And I don't want to think about that.
Jay, you have been correct on the CC situation for over 2 years now. I'm impressed.
by oxforddave on
Feb 14, 2008 9:43 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Unfortunately, the Santana trade screwed things up on a second front as well, setting a poor precedent for what the Tribe would get back in a trade (not Hughes). That really bothers me and was my biggest fear once NY and Boston took their initial offers off the table for Santana.
It's not that the front office moved too late in negotiations (I think they did as much as possible, both in terms of the contract and the timing), but I think the Santana trade may have thrown a wrench in their plans.
Before Santana, I would have traded Sabathia, but now I say hold on to him and go for it in 2008.
by Pronk33 on
Feb 15, 2008 4:23 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Hughes was always a ridiculous expectation for Santana or Sabathia, in my view, and it's not at all clear that the Yankees would have gone through with it at any point. What really got screwed up is that the two biggest rich-sucker teams, the Mets and Mariners, have already gotten their aces. Those two teams being out of play alone makes it far less likely that we'll get a truly tempting offer.
by Jay on
Feb 15, 2008 8:20 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Sigh.
by afh4 on
Feb 14, 2008 9:45 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Feel free to reply with comments you too would like thrown CC's way. PG-rated of course.
by supermarioelia on
Feb 14, 2008 9:53 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by KevinV on
Feb 14, 2008 10:03 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
My open letter to CC:
CC, if you want the cash that you believe that you are worth, you might try to perform in the playoffs this year.
by oxforddave on
Feb 14, 2008 9:54 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Isn't C.C. tight with LeBron? Doesn't LeBron speak openly about his goal to be the wealthiest man alive?
by ploni on
Feb 14, 2008 12:04 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by oxforddave on
Feb 14, 2008 1:31 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Like the general once said, "sometimes ya gotta destroy a village to save it."
by mauichuck on
Feb 15, 2008 8:35 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by NickFantana on
Feb 15, 2008 9:14 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I guess subtleness is not my strong suit - or sarcasm for that matter.
by mauichuck on
Feb 15, 2008 9:27 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
For what it's worth, I haven't watched a second of Cavs basketball since LeBron wore that hat to the Indians game. He and the team are dead to me, until he goes. So as far as villages go, burn em all down.
by NickFantana on
Feb 15, 2008 10:08 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by Thommy on
Feb 14, 2008 9:59 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by KevinV on
Feb 14, 2008 10:04 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by woodsmeister on
Feb 14, 2008 10:12 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
"a primal deity in Norse mythology who was renowned for his knowledge and wisdom. "
Sounds about right to me.
by KevinV on
Feb 14, 2008 10:21 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by fwembt on
Feb 14, 2008 10:03 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
And hey, pitchers and catchers report today, so let's bring on the actual baseball & stop thinking about all this depressing stuff. If CC goes 20-6 on the way to winning a World Series, I'll congratulate the guy & hope he sucks for the next team that signs him.
by zempf on
Feb 14, 2008 10:05 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
If it's simple economics, as many of you say, then C.C.'s decision is not reprehensible. I know I will always be rooting for him.
by Voltaire on
Feb 14, 2008 10:14 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by zempf on
Feb 14, 2008 10:17 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by supermarioelia on
Feb 14, 2008 10:19 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by Voltaire on
Feb 14, 2008 10:22 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by supermarioelia on
Feb 14, 2008 10:25 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I know you're making a joke (but seriously communicating your views). Nonetheless, they seem kind of silly to me. That's all.
by Voltaire on
Feb 14, 2008 10:27 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by supermarioelia on
Feb 14, 2008 10:27 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Really, I'm just sad.
Trade him and see if he'll waive that not going sign a contract before the end of the season nonsense. The Tribe is just not offering "Fair market value."
F*$K!
by mjmarble on
Feb 14, 2008 10:17 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
That said, this also gives Indians fans an idea of exactly what's going on. Here's hoping that the average fan understands this one a little better then they did the other free agent signings...
Keep C.C. this year and see if he can man up in the playoffs. If you tank, then worry about trading him to one of those desperate contender types.
by painaxl on
Feb 14, 2008 10:17 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by APV on
Feb 14, 2008 10:19 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by Voltaire on
Feb 14, 2008 10:29 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by cheech99 on
Feb 14, 2008 10:31 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by Voltaire on
Feb 14, 2008 10:37 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The only thing that bugs me is the assumption behind both stances - ie, "the going rate". A little over a year ago, CC remarked with a laugh "you give me Oswalt money and I'm here to stay", referring to the 5 yr/73 ml contract Oswalt had recently inked.
The laugh had two sides to it: one, that that was a stinkload of money and he'd be glad to sign up for that, it'd be a no brainer. Two, the recognition (backed by the silent assent of everyone from fans to management to press), that it would be a warm day in hell for the Indian's to make an offer like that, since it was clearly out of their comfort zone.
So, a mere year and change later and that laugh rings very hollow: "Oswalt money" is suddenly very affordable for the Tribe, and "the going rate" has moved to where CC would laugh at that same offer not because it was too much but because it was obviously too little.
Who wants to bet that within a couple years, we will look back similarly on this situation? The point being that despite success in '07, the Tribe's money situation has not changed so radically so that what was inconceivable a year ago is eminently affordable now. But our comfort zone has remained the same - we can't afford "the going rate".
I don't want to pay him a $100m either, but I'm just wondering if we'll end up thinking that was not such a big deal for a stud pitcher in his prime.
by mcrose on
Feb 14, 2008 10:34 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
CC's value rises as he continues to stay healthy. He made it through 2007 without injury, so his asking price goes up. If he gets injured in '08, he will not get $20M. It does not mean the Tribe will still be able to afford him (our top offer will go down, just like with every other team). So, CC might get $15M on the open market (while the Tribe would only offer $12M), but that's the risk CC is taking.
by Spidey on
Feb 14, 2008 10:56 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by woodsmeister on
Feb 14, 2008 11:01 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
eh, $3M isn't what it used to be. Maybe you could get a decent reliever for it.
If he gets injured in '08, he will not get $20M.
Depending on the injury, I doubt he'll get less than $20M on the open market. An injury might shorten the deal, but I doubt it will lower the $/season.
by Ryan on
Feb 14, 2008 11:10 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by mcrose on
Feb 14, 2008 11:27 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
A third factor is price of other options, which also is rising all the time. We can condone certain salary levels in 2008 that could not have been condoned in 2006, because of other available options. For all three reasons, the Indians quite non-magically can afford at one point in time what they could not have considered two or three years ago.
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 12:27 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
No, get used to it - as long as there is no salary cap the Indians will always be in the lower half of salaries.
by mauichuck on
Feb 14, 2008 12:39 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
mcrose pointed out that contracts that seem unthinkable often seem totally thinkable a couple of years later, implying that there is something either dumb or fraudulent about believing right now that we can't afford X dollar amount, when in a few years we'll be wishing the player would stay for that same X dollar amount.
My reply was just to say, yes, that does happen, but it isn't dumb or fraudulent, it's caused by specific factors that raise the norms for the Indians in particular (at this moment) and all teams in general.
I never said anything to the effect that this would move the Indians out of the bottom tier. It may move them out of the basement, but they probably will not be in the top half of payrolls even at the peak of the current generation of players. The absolute numbers may move considerably, but the relative numbers will not.
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 1:10 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
2007 $61,673,267
2006 $56,031,500
2005 $41,502,500
2004 $34,319,300
2003 $48,584,834
2002 $78,909,499
2001 $93,360,000
2000 $76,500,000
In 2001 I woulda bet money that they'd exceed $100M by 2003 - but they didn't. But I also woulda bet that they wouldn't pay anybody more than $15M out of that $100M.
Here's what I'm getting at: even if they hit $100M a year in salary they still won't pay any one player more than $18M a year - bargain or no. Meanwhile, top tier teams with $120M+ salaries now can afford to take on a $20M player this year and hope he's a bargain in 2013. We can't.
by mauichuck on
Feb 14, 2008 1:43 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by emil minty on
Feb 14, 2008 2:02 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
You seem to acknowledge that the payroll may go over $100 million, and to me this is obvious. We peaked appropriate at around $80 million before, and central fund revenue is up well over $30 million. If we are more or less selling out, we may well surpass $100 million in 2010, when $48 million basically has already been allocated for six players under contract (or club option). Had we signed C.C. even to our opening offer, that would have meant $65 million for seven players, plus a slew of other guys (pick five from among Carmona, Garko, Shoppach, Gutierrez, Perez, Sowers, Barfield) already in arbitration. So it would end up as something like $85 million for 12 players -- trust me, that offer assumed a payroll approaching $100 million.
So with that settled ...
Here's what I'm getting at: even if they hit $100M a year in salary they still won't pay any one player more than $18M a year - bargain or no.
I'm not sure what you're arguing here, that they can't or they won't. The Indians' initial offer was for @ 17.5 per year, and it would be foolish to assume they weren't prepared to go at least to 19.5. So I would say that they are already, right now, prepared to break your rule, if all the circumstances are right.
Whether they should do so is another question. I know you think they shouldn't, but it's pretty clear to me that they disagree.
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 2:09 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Instead of "magical", how bout "not completely tied to absolute dollars and cents"? For example, let's say the contracts to compare CC to (Peavy, Zambrano, Santana, etc.) had accelerated slightly faster than they actually did, that they were 10-15% bigger than they are. Do you think that Shap would not have made an offer because he couldn't afford it in absolute dollars? No - he would have made a similar type offer - one that was related to the market but median or just shy once everything was triangulated. It would be within the comfort zone and the self-image of "a team without limitless funds", even though that absolute figure would be one that he wouldn't be comfortable offering today, because it would be outside the zone.
In other words, he can't offer 20/4-5 now because the calculations don't warrant it, but if the market had accelerated slightly, those same market calculations might make that same absolute dollar figure palatable.
by mcrose on
Feb 14, 2008 1:22 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by mcrose on
Feb 14, 2008 1:37 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The risk inherent in rich moves mitigates the differences in payroll to the tune of tens of millions -- "the Yankees actually waste three times more than the Indians actually spend" -- but it potentially mitigates even more to the extent that we avoid those same moves.
Rob Neyer has written some interesting pieces on the subject of how spending just a little more actually doesn't help -- that mid-level teams shouldn't try to compete with the richest teams, because it doesn't take an extra $20 million to do it successfully, it takes an extra $100 million. (He was discouraging Billy Beane from diving deeper into the free agent pool a year or two ago.)
I think he's basically right, but I also subscribe to the theory that that extra $20 million or $10 million can buy you depth, and depth is very underrated. Nobody is excited by Byrd, Dellucci, Nixon and Borowski, $18 million total, but realistically, what does our 2007 roster look like without them? When Shin-Soo Choo goes down and Gutierrez looks horribly exposed after four months, what then? And who's setting up for Betancourt after we cut four other relievers? And what happens if we promote a few guys too soon? Probably not 96 wins.
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 1:48 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The "comfort zone" in negotiations (a term Shap uses frequently) is just that - an area they don't feel comfortable being outside of, not a particularly analytic description. My point is that the comfort zone for us can be seen as partly related to market positioning rather than absolute dollars.
by mcrose on
Feb 14, 2008 2:37 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Comfort zone is a vague term, but proper risk management analytics doesn't yield absolute yes/nos, it yields gradations of yes and no. Venturing outside your comfort zone in this sense means being willing to go into somewhat riskier territory, or to take the same risk level with higher stakes, or a combination.
I also think it's one thing to go outside the comfort zone (as he's said) in doing a multi-year deal with a reliever for $6.5 million, quite another thing to go outside it with an elite starting pitcher for $120 million.
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 2:48 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by mcrose on
Feb 14, 2008 3:14 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
If they make an exception, they lose that principle in all future dealings. That will have consequences when it comes time to negotiate with Victor in 2010 and Grady in 2012.
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 2:51 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I think it's fair to say that the team is probably influenced somewhat by comfort zone and self-image, but let us not forget, they probably are the most rigorous pure analysts of all 30 teams, from Shapiro to Woolner, and reports of the internal culture always paint a picture of openness to ideas from all sources. Your idea suggests that at no point does somebody say, "Hey, let's start with the assumption that we can afford a $120 million deal."
I think rather that they ask themselves questions like that all the time. But leaving aside the general question of organizational mentality, there is still the extraordinarily bleak history of long-term pitcher deals staring everyone in the face, and even the most crude analysis has to conclude that a deal like that is only appropriate for a team that is desperate, rich and stupid, e.g., the Mets. The Indians are none of those three things.
Reaching back to your first point, I think the Indians very much consider the fact that certain dollar amounts will become more affordable over time. The problem is, this point is so obvious that the richest teams are also considering it, so I think it's moot.
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 1:40 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I wouldn't offer that $$ and length to pretty much any other pitcher - to me the edict of no long term contracts for pitchers is another good general rule that you pick your spots to make exceptions to, and CC perfectly matches those circumstances. If the negotiations are truly over I have to say we could and should have made a better initial offer, both in dollars and years.
Now we are boxed in a corner (not a bad corner, but still) - faced with letting our best player walk for nothing in return, just as he is entering his prime and we are back to being competitive. I'm frustrated that the negotiations ended so abruptly - now part of me wants to trade him for a younger pitcher that has his ceiling, and part of me wants to get the most out of him this year to make the best grab for the ring.
Might make a good LGT poll...
by mcrose on
Feb 14, 2008 2:57 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by maledicta on
Feb 14, 2008 10:52 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by Brick. on
Feb 14, 2008 10:59 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by fanintexas on
Feb 14, 2008 11:12 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I guess this just puts more pressure on Jeremy Sowers to bounce back this year.
by Toxicadam on
Feb 14, 2008 11:06 AM EST
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by gte619n on
Feb 14, 2008 11:06 AM EST
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by gte619n on
Feb 14, 2008 11:06 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I don't want to lose CC either, but the Indians pitching is still decent without him (and might be better than that if the younger guys -- Miller, Sowers, Laffey -- develop as we had hoped they would.
by peter m on
Feb 14, 2008 11:26 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I think this is the best reason to trade CC. 2009 comes around and obviously our rotation is significantly worse. The question is if we have enough internal talent to replace Sabathia+Byrd and I don't believe we do. I will grant that Sowers, Lee, Laffey and Miller (I'd also probably add Lofgren) could replace some, or most, of the production but I am skeptical about depending on that to replace production.
I would assume we're not going to be playing in a free agent market where all prices will be inflated thanks to the big man so we're probably running out there what we've got on hand organizationally. Therefore, the best way to increase our odds of replacing his production is to use his value to bring in cheap, productive talent that increases our odds of replacing his value.
by NickFantana on
Feb 14, 2008 11:50 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
A year ago we had: Sabathia, Westbrook, Lee, Sowers, Byrd, Carmona, Miller
And people felt pretty damned good about it, and national analysts said the rotation was underrated and damned good and really deep -- not having any idea how good Carmona really could be.
A year from now, it could be: Carmona, Westbrook, Lee, Sowers, Miller, Laffey, Lofgren
And depending on whether some of those guys bounce back, we rightly could feel pretty damned good about that rotation.
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 11:55 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I think a lot of the national analyst talk about our 07 rotation was based on a return to form of Lee and Sowers building on previous success, plus Carmona and Miller for depth. Contrasting that with next spring's picture is obviously difficult because you're trying to predict an extra year of data but it seems to me that none of the four needed to fill our 09 rotation (Miller, Lofgren, Lee, Sowers) have as nice looking a resume as Carmona or Miller did going into last year's spring.
In summary, it's hard to argue that "we could rightly feel pretty good about that rotation" but it is hard to do without predicing either a Laffeyian out-of-nowhere arrival or a "bounce back" from Lee or Sowers.
Meanwhile, I believe Sabathia's trade value is high enough that we can replace his production this year (in offense or pitching) and also restock the cabinet for 09.
by NickFantana on
Feb 14, 2008 1:16 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I was a big Carmona fan at all times, but you can't say that Sowers and Lee aren't more accomplished now than Carmona was a year ago. That's just silly. He was a very good prospect, but those other two have already had major league success, Lee for a sustained period of time, and Sowers is still just three years out of the draft!
It's a mistake to think that major league struggles diminish a player who's still young enough to be a prospect. Sowers turns 25 in May and is younger than (for example) Rafael Perez, Josh Barfield, Brian Barton, Shin-Soo Choo and Ben Francisco. Not super-young, but young enough to be a very good prospect albeit with a limited ceiling, same as he ever was.
it is hard to do without predicing either a Laffeyian out-of-nowhere arrival or a "bounce back" from Lee or Sowers.
I am predicting exactly one of those three things.
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 1:29 PM EST
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by zempf on
Feb 14, 2008 2:04 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
That goes to your second point in predicting that either Sowers or Lee will rebound or Santo Frias will come out of nowhere and win some games in 2009. I can sense why you would predict one of those three things and I am sympathetic to that line of thinking. In addition, I'm sure you have some good reasons for predicting one of those three that you haven't brought to bear in this conversation yet. However, I find the fourth option, trading Sabathia, to be the most compelling.
Given a choice between predicting that Lee or Sowers bounce back, Pitcher X comes out of the night to win some games or Prospect A B C and D, received as the result of a Sabathia trade help to replace his production this year and for many more to come, at a reduced price, wouldn't you say that the Sabathia trade scenario is most likely to replace his lost production and solve rotation issues in 09?
by NickFantana on
Feb 14, 2008 2:10 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Now, I suppose you could play the whole hindsight card and say we shouldn't have done the Hafner deal, but that deal wouldn't have precluded us giving C.C. what he wants (I don't think). We were just never going to go that 5th year.
by cheech99 on
Feb 14, 2008 11:07 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by peter m on
Feb 14, 2008 11:13 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
"Win the whole ... thing"
by painaxl on
Feb 14, 2008 11:14 AM EST
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by FaustosSinkingFastball on
Feb 14, 2008 11:27 AM EST
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by fwembt on
Feb 14, 2008 12:06 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
This argument smells just like that made by Roger Clemens yesterday when he said how he backed the USA. USA! USA! USA! The last refuge of scoundrels.
This how the system works; The team gets to underpay a player for the first six years of his service, including some of his prime years. A form of indentured servitude, though not without its perks. In return, after the player has made his bones, he gets his freedom and go for the money.
There is really nothing to be angry about. The fates were probably sealed when Barry Zito got his $126 million seven year contract.
by Bogalusa Bomber on
Feb 14, 2008 12:25 PM EST
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by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 12:28 PM EST
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by Bogalusa Bomber on
Feb 14, 2008 12:37 PM EST
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by supermarioelia on
Feb 14, 2008 11:28 AM EST
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by gte619n on
Feb 14, 2008 11:42 AM EST
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by mkwng on
Feb 14, 2008 11:54 AM EST
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by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 11:58 AM EST
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by KevinV on
Feb 14, 2008 1:40 PM EST
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by Turkmenbashi on
Feb 14, 2008 11:58 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Of course, Sabathia's gone after this season. What's the question? And who in his right mind (there's that brain thing again) would take a chance on a pitcher, especially one of this particular physical type, with a contract of the duration he is demanding.
Answer: NYY, NYM, CHC, LAA or any of the other "grotesque" teams out there.
Mark, you're thinking straight. Don't slip up!
by ploni on
Feb 14, 2008 11:59 AM EST
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by Brick. on
Feb 14, 2008 11:59 AM EST
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by gte619n on
Feb 14, 2008 12:03 PM EST
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by fwembt on
Feb 14, 2008 12:07 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by hans on
Feb 14, 2008 12:19 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Unlike the Manny, Thome & Belle situations, we don't have to wonder what will happen in 2009. CC's departure is an accomplished fact unless his 2008 is unsuccessful. I'd prefer that he have a classic contract year / age 27 performance for us this season and then leave, as opposed to a freak scenario that enables us to afford him.
So, assuming CC isn't traded (and don't believe he will be), we have all season to resign ourselves it. I'll be rooting for him.
by jhon on
Feb 14, 2008 12:17 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
It's not happening, but it may be the likeliest way that he could stay.
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 12:30 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
An unlikely scenario as you stated, but it would be interesting if it ever happened.
by SpringTrainingFun on
Feb 14, 2008 12:38 PM EST
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by jhon on
Feb 14, 2008 12:41 PM EST
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by Brick. on
Feb 14, 2008 12:35 PM EST
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by zempf on
Feb 14, 2008 12:51 PM EST
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by oxforddave on
Feb 14, 2008 1:29 PM EST
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by zempf on
Feb 14, 2008 2:09 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I'm not on board with the few people that think he must be traded. Obviously if the injury bug bits badly early on or for another reason we are out of contention come the trade deadline, I'd ship him off for as many pitching prospects as I could get.
I also don't necessarily think we need to "ride him hard and put him away wet." Obviously a healthy, effective CC gets the Indians to where we want them this year a lot easier than it would otherwise, but getting a useless CC in the playoffs because he's exhausted from the regular season doesn't help either of us. Leaving the Tribe for money doesn't make me like CC right now, but he's been one of my favorites for a few years and I will wish him well after the year is over ... until he signs with the Yankees or the Red Sox.
by CU Adam on
Feb 14, 2008 12:50 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by emil minty on
Feb 14, 2008 12:51 PM EST
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TRADE!
by crazymoloh on
Feb 14, 2008 12:58 PM EST
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Re: TRADE!
by mauichuck on
Feb 14, 2008 1:04 PM EST
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Re: TRADE!
The harsh reality of the regular season will reveal that the Yankee stud prospects are still merely prospects, that the Red Sox rotation, already leaking Schilling, is not so deep as assumed, and that the Dodgers are involved in a dogfight, not a waltz to the pennant.
The regular season will also reveal whether the Indians can contend for the Central title. If they cannot, Sabathia would be most valuable to those teams that see themselves as one great left arm away from the Series.
Finally, I would take with a mountain of salt C.C.'s claim that negotiations will not go on in the regular season. Negotiations with his new club would certainly take place before a trade was completed, as in the Santana situation.
It is even possible that Sabathia could still re-up with the Tribe. I would never, however, expect the often mentioned "home town discount" from him. Cleveland is not his hometown: he is a California boy, and every Californian I have ever met thinks there is but one state in this union worthy of human habitation. C.C.'s majestic "crib" was not built in Cuyahoga County.
by Rochester on
Feb 14, 2008 1:51 PM EST
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Re: TRADE!
Besides, I think you have to keep CC on the team for this year because we have a completely legit shot of winning the World Series. If we won a World Series, I'd be okay with the team devolving the way the White Sox have, for crying out loud. But we wouldn't -- CC would be the only core player we'd lose. It'd be a tough loss, but not one that would be insurmountable.
I guess it's a risk/reward analysis. Watching the Tribe win the World Series is worth a lot of risks in my mind, and CC this year makes that a lot more likely than it would be without him.
by CU Adam on
Feb 14, 2008 1:28 PM EST
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Re: TRADE!
I haven't seen anyone talking about a middle ground (though admittedly I'm trying to read this thread while pretending to work, though at least I'm not in class, Adam). Keep CC until close to the trading deadline, and trade him if we're out of serious contention. Another team might pay a lot if they thought CC could bring them across the finish line, and we'd at least have gotten some value back. If we're undeniably in contention, hold onto him and pray.
by Denver Tribe Fan on
Feb 14, 2008 2:03 PM EST
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Re: TRADE!
The Tigers are only slightly better at 4/1 to win the pennant, and you have to consider that they're lowering the payoff on that bet because they'll expect elevated volume on it.
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 2:16 PM EST
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Re: TRADE!
Kidding aside, I don't think that using Vegas odds is exactly the best way to determine a given teams chances of winning anything (It's certainly the easiest, and there's not really a way to do it otherwise, but hear me out). Vegas doesn't set lines at a spot relative to what the setters think will happen -- they set it to a point that will result in 50% of the money being on either side (obviously this is skewed for odds, but the same idea exists; insure yourself from getting burned if a longshot comes through or if everyone bets on one team. The Cubs are consistently "favored" over where they'd be because so many people bet on them, for example.
Long way of saying that 10:1 doesn't really reflect the Indians' chance of winning, in my opinion. I think it may be higher than that, but even if it's just one in ten, I'll take it.
by CU Adam on
Feb 14, 2008 2:27 PM EST
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Re: TRADE!
It's in the house's best interest to bias the odds a little in the direction opposite the prevailing traffic. They won't veer very far away from the 50/50 point, but the guys making the odds generally are a lot smarter than the guys placing the bets.
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 2:33 PM EST
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Re: TRADE!
If you don't plan on hedging at some point, they are sucker bets (not as nicely put as your last sentence, but meaning the same).
by rolub on
Feb 14, 2008 4:37 PM EST
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Re: TRADE!
Btw, Indians at Rockies tix go on sale Saturday morning.
by Denver Tribe Fan on
Feb 15, 2008 1:44 AM EST
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Re: TRADE!
I will be at all three. Studying-for-the-bar schmudying-for-the-bar.
by CU Adam on
Feb 15, 2008 11:41 AM EST
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Re: TRADE!
by mauichuck on
Feb 15, 2008 11:44 AM EST
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Re: TRADE!
by Harry Doyle on
Feb 15, 2008 11:52 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Job one is to field an entertaining and competitive team in most years so that major league baseball stays in Cleveland.
That is best accomplished by assuring that we get as much as possible for CC so as to meet job one.
It would feel good to go "all in" trying to win a World Series, but the hangover in succeeding years isn't worth it, no matter the outcome.
I know I come off as a wet blanket, but, better to be a wet blanket than to return to the days where our team is not competitive and there is the threat that some owner wants to move our team to a growing market. I welcome your rebuttal.
by elsandito on
Feb 14, 2008 2:02 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_of_United_States_Combined_Statistical_Areas
by randallhank on
Feb 15, 2008 2:53 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
So, I have a question to all of you. What are we cheering for? Do we want all average players (Westbrooks, Lees, Byrds, Blakes) with a couple cheap superstars (Hafner, Sizemore, V-Mart)? It seems like this is all we can afford and all we are willing to spend on. We havent brought in a significant free agent in this decade. We do many things very good such as extending the current players and making beneficial trades. Dont get me wrong what we do is great and I love it. These things are what put us ahead of 75% of all the other organizations but that last 25% will not be beat without breaking the bank every now and then.
We have one of the smartest front offices in all of sports and they dont spend on oft injured or over the hill vets which is great but they do need to spend on guys like this.
This brings me back to my question...what are we cheering for...CC to be traded for a young pitcher who becomes as good as CC and then walks also because we dont have the money for him? Or do we trade for average talent so we can keep them for 10 years and finish second or third in the division and hope for a playoff run in there at some point???
by Tribe Alive on
Feb 14, 2008 2:51 PM EST
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by Brick. on
Feb 14, 2008 2:58 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Yes.
It seems like this is all we can afford and all we are willing to spend on.
Willing to spend, or can spend? The Indians barely broke even last season, while the Yankees made well over $50 million in real profits. That is not a problem of "willingness," it's a problem with the system. There is no owner in baseball -- none -- who has been willing to tolerate sustained losses of tens of millions of dollars in order to contend.
We havent brought in a significant free agent in this decade.
And yet we had the best record in baseball last year, and we got to 93-plus wins two years out of three. What is your point?
We have acquired significant talent. Free agent talent is the most expensive and least effective kind. And by the way, Westbrook is not average.
what are we cheering for...CC to be traded for a young pitcher who becomes as good as CC and then walks also because we dont have the money for him? Or do we trade for average talent so we can keep them for 10 years
I think you're losing count of the years. We'll have had eight years of C.C., and we've got Grady locked up for his first eight years plus. Yes, that is all we're going to get in most cases. Eight years is a long time for any player to be with any team, so let's not act like it's a really short tenure.
My point being, we can have superior talent for 6-8 years, and that's pretty damned good -- and it's a lot better than the leftovers other teams get. Did we not get the best part of Belle's career, Thome's career, even Manny's career? Of course we did. That's how it works.
Westbrooke's $33 million contract is the second-richest ever by the Indians, surpassed only a few months later by Hafner's $57 million. I believe the Indians were willing to go to $80 million for Sabathia, so they essentially agree with your statement, "they do need to spend on guys like this."
But there are limits. Do you really think they should spend $120 million to keep Sabathia?
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 3:06 PM EST
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by fwembt on
Feb 14, 2008 3:59 PM EST
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by Tribe Alive on
Feb 14, 2008 4:21 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
My point was that (I believe) the Indians were willing to break the bank, giving Sabathia a contract three times larger than anything we had ever given prior to 2007, and setting a new record for contract extensions given to a pitcher. That is breaking the bank in my book. Do you disagree?
What do you consider breaking the bank? Is there no limit?
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 4:37 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
It's one big tease. CC never intended to sign and we never intended to sign him.
by mauichuck on
Feb 14, 2008 4:51 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I dont think we should go out and spend money on guys like Zito, Magglio, Torii Hunter, Soriano, etc. But, I do think we do whatever we can to make sure CC ends up an Indian for his career. He is a homegrown, amazing talent that needs to be here over the next 5-10 years. This team will not be the same without him...period.
Without him we are 3rd place at best...who is going to replace him? Let's look at some of the pitchers on the market this past year that could have...Glavine, Fogg, Livan, Silva, Tomko, Wolf. I think you all see my point here. Who are we gonna get next year once CC walks? Mussina, Prior???
by Tribe Alive on
Feb 15, 2008 9:52 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The first assertion is BS. We have no idea how high the Indians can finish without CC - none. I keep coming back to the Pronk/Pronk-lyte situation between 06 and 07. There was a precipitous drop in production in our DH slot between those two years and a quantum increase in number of wins. No one - no one - woulda predicted that outcome in April of 07.
And, in my opinion, CC was not our number one starter in 07 - Fausto was. Again, unimaginable in February of 07.
I find this idea that you can project how a season will unfold in February ill considered. In fact I find the whole idea of projecting team performance based on previous performance ill considered. You could just as easily ask, "who will replace Victor if he gets hurt/slumps?" or Grady or Fausto or a number of others and not have a satisfactory answer. Similarly I find the idea that you can predict how valuable a 300-pound pitcher will be in seven years even more incredible.
All I know is this: there are guy(s) unknown to us now who will prove to be critical components in the Tribe's drive to the pennant this year. Bank on it.
by mauichuck on
Feb 15, 2008 10:43 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
just out of curiosity, where are you getting those numbers from?
by 7foot3 on
Feb 14, 2008 7:54 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
If I am not mistaken we had one of the lowest payrolls and winningest teams. And, out of all the lowest payrolls in baseball, we had some of the largest attendance numbers.
And we still only break even...sounds fishy.
by Tribe Alive on
Feb 15, 2008 9:45 AM EST
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by fingolfin on
Feb 15, 2008 11:35 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
If I go with Chuck's analysis, we're in the 24th largest market, but there are actually only three teams in smaller markets (Reds, Royals, Milwaukee). Mr. Naharodny's figure of 15th is probably a better one for this purpose, since combined statistical areas are probably defined more along the same lines as media markets. Here again, though, you have to consider that the top six CSA's are home to 10 teams, and all five two-team CSA's are more than twice the size of Cleveland's.
So the big difference between the two methods is that the Indians market sneaks ahead of the Cardinals market by a hair, which still makes ours the fifth-smallest. (I'm thinking St. Louis has more regional appeal, but the Indians must get some benefit from the Columbus market, 24th biggest CSA, even if it is shared with Cincinnati.)
Anyway, I'll dig up some links on team revenues, but what you're going to find is that the Yankees had more than a $200 million revenue advantage over the Indians yet spent "only" $160 million more on payroll.
by Jay on
Feb 15, 2008 6:21 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by brandon on
Feb 14, 2008 2:52 PM EST
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by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 3:09 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Like last year when they said this about Hafner... then signed him early in the season
by brandon on
Feb 14, 2008 3:20 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
And you're missing the key point, which is that Hafner was not only a few months away from free agency. We still had a team option on him for 2008, so even had a deal not gotten done last season, it might have gotten done this offseason.
by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 3:22 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by palcal on
Feb 14, 2008 2:57 PM EST
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by VermilionGuy on
Feb 14, 2008 3:00 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I don't think your negativity is rational.
by palcal on
Feb 14, 2008 3:14 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by VermilionGuy on
Feb 14, 2008 3:24 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
What is your basis for saying that?
by palcal on
Feb 14, 2008 3:30 PM EST
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by Jay on
Feb 14, 2008 3:36 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I would argue that the 2008 team has not been built to contend without Sabathia. If Sabathia is traded before the trading deadline, the Indians would need to get some players in return that could make a significant contribution this year if they are serious about making it to the World Series.
I'm sure that Shapiro will listen to offers, but I
don't think it is probable he will be tempted while the Indians are in contention.
by palcal on
Feb 14, 2008 3:55 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
But contend they did, cuz it's a team game. Who's to say that Fausto and Jake don't improve from last year to this year? And that Marte doesn't turn into a RBI machine and Garko's power numbers jump up? We contended last year with four or five guys playin' much better in '07 than expected - Grako, Fausto, Raffies, Vic. It's Spring Training for chrissake - anything can happen.
We'll do fine with or without CC - we've got guys down in the minors right now who've got the potential to light it up. Chill Bro - we've got this World Series thing in the bag.
by mauichuck on
Feb 14, 2008 4:04 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Translating those to wins contributed above a starter named Jason: 6, 4, 3, 3.5.
How about Win Shares? 24, 14, 13, 12. Above bench: 18, 9, 7, 6.
Translating those to wins contributed above a starter named Jason: 6, 3, 2.3, 2.
My point being, it's not as though we can just pencil in C.C. to contribute six extra wins, any more than we can Pronk. In fact, prior to last season, it would be fair to say C.C. usually contributed three extra wins, and Pronk contributed six.
How about that?
In a typical year, losing C.C. is like losing three wins in the standings, as long as we don't have a fatal collapse of pitching depth. We seem well prepared against that.
It also is unlikely that C.C. has established a "new level" for himself with his six-win season in 2007. Regression is the most powerful statistical force in baseball projection, and the likelihood is that he established his level over the three years prior, something in the range of 3 or 4 marginal wins, and 2007 was an outlier produced mainly by an aberrant (though impressive) pile of innings pitched.
It is a shame for us to lose C.C., but it certainly is not unrecoverable. As Chuck says, it is a team sport, and there is only so much impact one player can have. C.C. is not a freakish outlier contributor of marginal wins, he's just a great player.
For reference, top Indians WSAB seasons since 2004:
- Hafner, 2005
- Martinez, 2007
- Sabathia, 2007
- Hafner, 2006
- Carmona, 2007
- Sizemore, 2007
- Hafner, 2004
- Peralta, 2005
- Sizemore, 2005
- Sizemore, 2006
- Westbrook, 2004
- Martinez, 2004
- Martinez, 2005
- Peralta, 2007
- Betancourt, 2007
- Crisp, 2005
- Millwood, 2005
- Sabathia, 2005
- Broussard, 2004
- Hafner, 2007
- Lee, 2005
- Sabathia, 2005
- Westbrook, 2006
- Martinez, 2006
- Sabathia, 2004
- Vizquel, 2004
- Belliard, 2004
- Howry, 2005
- Belliard, 2005
- Byrd, 2007
- Hafner
- Martinez
- Sizemore (49 pace)
- Sabathia
- Peralta (35 pace)
- Westbrook
by Jay on
Feb 15, 2008 7:04 PM EST
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by fwembt on
Feb 14, 2008 3:58 PM EST
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by Fundamentals on
Feb 14, 2008 8:40 PM EST
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by supermarioelia on
Feb 14, 2008 8:56 PM EST
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by Fundamentals on
Feb 14, 2008 9:36 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Triv is also among the reasons I first purchased mlb.tv. Too often I accidentally turned my radio to 1100 AM the afternoon following a Tribe game. The yelling made my ears bleed.
by supermarioelia on
Feb 14, 2008 9:55 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I do like Dan Patrick but I recognize that this is an acquired taste and Mike and Mike can be entertaining for about 5 minutes. Mike Tirico is the best of the bunch but he's only good for about 15 minutes a day.
Sports talk just isn't all that interesting, not since Scott Raab and Pete Franklin went off the air anyway.
by mauichuck on
Feb 15, 2008 8:26 AM EST
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by randallhank on
Feb 15, 2008 3:02 AM EST
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by Nat on
Feb 14, 2008 3:27 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The truth is that only four or five big-$$$$$$ teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox, etc. are capable of retaining a significant number of their superstars once they are eligible for free agency.
When Yankees fans point to their "home-grown" guys like Captain Choke, Rivera, and Posada to try to persuade people they haven't bought their team, it actually proves that they have, because if any of those guys had come up with a poor team, let's say the Royals, they'd be long gone by now.
Many teams can retain 1 or 2 potential superstars and they have to make the absolute right call or they'll pay for years. Do you think the A's would have liked right about now to have kept Miguel Tejada and let Eric Chavez walk? And how about the last few years of Mike Sweeney with the Royals?
The Tribe is at least innovative enough to extend the period before that first big free agency check from 6 to 7 or 8 years by buying out a couple years of potential free agency at a bargain price. Many teams are unable to do even that and get only 5 or 5.5 years out of their potential superstars.
You can say that the Indians are cheap if you want. It does put you in a class with the Triv-listening blame Dolan first crowd. It is more realistic to say that the Tribe is in touch with the economic realities of the game that the vast majority of teams operate, and while they've identified strategies to mitigate some of the pain while they work within those constraints, they cannot function as if those constraints don't exist.
by woodsmeister on
Feb 14, 2008 3:46 PM EST
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by elsandito on
Feb 14, 2008 4:36 PM EST
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by APV on
Feb 14, 2008 5:49 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
All of this talk of the extra year being the sticking point...you're telling me that after what would be 7 years of serious contending for the AL Central crown, that we wouldn't be willing to waste one year of overpaying a potentially underperforming or injured CC? This idea of a club acting as a sort of perpetual motion machine of greatness is a great philosophy, and I applaud Shap, but I wish they would just step back and take a broader view of things. I would think that more financial damage would be done in the eyes of casual fans by not signing C.C. than would be done by some down years from the club caused by the overpayment of C.C.
In not giving C.C. the extra year, they're pretty much saying that one extra bad year of C.C. is not worth taking the risk for potentially four good years. And where do they plan on spending this money now? As has been stated a million times here, we have no valuable in-house FAs coming up for eons. So that leaves FAs on the open market...yay.
After some thought I almost have to semi-agree with Chuck...it wouldn't surprise me if they never intended to get a deal done at all, because that one extra year shouldn't make or break a deal considering this team's context.
by supermarioelia on
Feb 14, 2008 7:13 PM EST
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by Turkmenbashi on
Feb 15, 2008 10:19 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The real risk assessment on starting pitchers is that you don't want to commit to more than three years. Never mind Sabathia, they were willing to go one extra year on Westbrook -- who got a three-year extension with one year still remaining on his deal. In other words, a four-year commitment at the time of the deal.
As for Sabathia, they were willing to offer two extra years, and probably would have tossed on a vesting third extra year. But they were not willing to guarantee three or four extra years beyond what they most prudently would do, which is only three years.
The Indians previously made four-year commitments to Sabathia at the starts of the 2002 and 2005 seasons. They made two-year commitments to Westbrook in 2005, Byrd in 2006 and Betancourt just a month ago. They made a 3.5-year commitment to Lee in mid-2006.
Here are all of the Indians' multi-year contractual commitments to pitchers under Shapiro:
4 years - Sabathia, March 2005
4 years - Sabathia, March 2002
4 years - Westbrook, March 2007
3.5 years - Lee, June 2006
3 years - Wickman, March 2002
2 years - Byrd, March 2006
2 years - Westbrook, March 2005
2 years - Betancourt, March 2008
See what I mean? The number is three -- two if you can get away with it. Four is for very special cases. Five is for a once-in-a-generation situation, like this one.
Six or seven is for suckers.
by Jay on
Feb 15, 2008 8:07 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
But I still don't see what Plan B is when we don't sign him. Just going along our merry way signing lesser FAs for the next 4 years?
by supermarioelia on
Feb 15, 2008 8:36 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
The Plan is always to develop as many talented young players as possible, keep the best ones you can keep, and sign free agents only when absolutely necessary, where necessary.
We've kept Sabathia for an extra two years and Westbrook for an extra three (so far). We signed Byrd because we needed one more guy for the next couple of years, Millwood before that, and we keep on developing more, with a dozen or more works in progress at any given time.
That's the plan, and that's always been the plan.
by Jay on
Feb 15, 2008 8:44 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I'm talking about the money that the club is taking in, that they were willing to spend on player salary, and is now for all intents and purposes just "sitting there". If four years down the road we use some of it to sign our current pre- and peri-arbitration players to long-term contracts, then I'm satisfied. I just want fans not to forget about this cash when things when revenues and expenses are tallied years from now.
I've never criticized ownership for being cheap, because I understand that spending money frivolously, as some on this site ludicrously advocate for, is foolish when it can be spent more wisely at a later date. So if this failure to sign CC opens things up later on for other signings, then great.
But I'm on high-alert as of yesterday.
by supermarioelia on
Feb 15, 2008 9:20 PM EST
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by Jay on
Feb 15, 2008 9:54 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
But whatever the prevailing thought was a year ago, the fact is that based on our budget right now the FO was ready to give CC a fairly hefty contract. So either the money is actually there to spend, or they were prepared to be financially-squeezed for the next little while. Knowing our philosophy, there's no way they were going to spend money that wasn't there.
So all I'm saying is that I'm at peace (sort of) with this C.C. business as long as we don't cry poor with our own guys for at least the next 5 years. In all likelihood, this lets us make another round of Martinez-Hafner-Westbrook-Peralta-Sizemore type signings with the new crop of youngsters between 2009 and 2012....so I'll live.
by supermarioelia on
Feb 15, 2008 10:32 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
So I don't think it would be accurate to say that not keeping C.C. allows us to do those things, simply because I don't believe they'd for one moment have considered spending money on C.C. that would foreclose our being able to keep even one good young player for the full six-plus years.
Where this does potentially help is in (a) keeping flexibility to sign those totally unexciting depth players, and (b) potentially reaching a little further to retain our next round of free agents. Victor, Westbrook, Lee and Betancourt are locked up through 2010, Peralta through 2011. As I've said before, it takes a little optimism to assume, at this early date, that any one of them will be particularly desirable for another long-term deal.
But with C.C.'s contract off the books, does that inspire the team to get with Victor's agents a year from now and do a small extension as they did with C.C. in 2005? (Meaning, picking up the 2010 option a year early and adding two more years to the deal.) Yeah, I think very possibly it does.
So I'm not sure what parts of that you will like or won't like, but that's how I see it.
by Jay on
Feb 16, 2008 12:18 AM EST
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by supermarioelia on
Feb 16, 2008 12:38 AM EST
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by Jay on
Feb 16, 2008 2:24 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
"But with C.C.'s contract off the books, does that inspire the team to get with Victor's agents a year from now and do a small extension as they did with C.C. in 2005? (Meaning, picking up the 2010 option a year early and adding two more years to the deal.) Yeah, I think very possibly it does."
Garko appears to be the 1B for the forseeable time period and Hafner is signed as the DH. So are you assuming Victor stays behind the plate for the majority of his playing time in 2001 and 2012 ?
by SpringTrainingFun on
Feb 16, 2008 2:59 AM EST
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by SpringTrainingFun on
Feb 16, 2008 3:00 AM EST
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- Victor will remain the starting catcher as long as his defensive contribution doesn't exceed in the negative the difference (in offensive production) between an average first baseman and an average catcher (say, about 30 runs) and as long as he is healthy enough to do so.
- In the event Victor starts spends more time at first base than catcher, he is likely to be both a better hitter and a better defender than Garko -- that is, even taking into account Garko is three years younger, Victor is simply a superior hitting talent and all-around athlete.
- Victor will be cheaper to re-sign if he's moved out of the starting catcher spot.
That suggests to me that if Victor can't stay behind the plate but remains viable as an everyday player in the lineup, he will end up the starting first baseman, and that we would trade Garko in order to extend Victor's tenure with the team beyond 2010.
There are a lot of different things that could prevent that from happening. Victor might not stay healthy, or he might stay extremely productive as a catcher. Garko could turn out to be better than currently projected. We have several prospects that could emerge at first base, too.
An interesting side-note on this is that Jordan Brown is a pretty good bet to be an extremely similar player to Garko -- an aggressive hitter with good strike-zone instincts, but just-okay power and defense as a first baseman -- except batting from the left side rather than the right. This sets up an interesting scenario where Shoppach and Brown form a two-spot platoon, with Victor moving to first base against every lefty starter. If Brown tears up Buffalo in 2008, we could see Garko traded in favor of this configuration as early as 2009.
by Jay on
Feb 16, 2008 2:49 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
*Sabathia - #9MM
*Blake - $6MM
*Byrd - $7MM
*Borowski - $4MM
*Fultz - $2MM
*Michaels - $2MM
And that's if we don't trade Cliff Lee (which is certainly less likely with Sabathia as good as gone). We never spend free agent dollars frivolously. Impossible to guess, but I wonder what we would spend it on.
by cheech99 on
Feb 16, 2008 4:29 PM EST
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by Jay on
Feb 16, 2008 5:43 PM EST
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I just wonder, what does the team do with $15MM or so in the offseason, when more teams are smarter about locking up their talent, less free agents are available, we're less likely to bid on these free agents because they're less talented, etc.
by cheech99 on
Feb 16, 2008 6:21 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
This is, to me, a key difference between the Hart and Shapiro approaches, the proactive approach and spending flexibility on retention. Among the five guys who will reach free agency in 2010-11, I won't be surprised if we keep two of them -- and possibly the only two we really want, whoever that may turn out to be.
The other option is to spend a chunk of flexibility to acquire an overpaid player from another team, someone with perhaps two years left on his contract, like a Bobby Abreu situation. Our $15 million is as good as any other team's.
by Jay on
Feb 17, 2008 10:48 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
2 years - Kobayashi, March 2008
by Jay on
Feb 15, 2008 9:02 PM EST
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by Brick. on
Feb 14, 2008 7:37 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I hope that what I wrote adequately laid out why the two sides are doing what they are doing.
C.C. thinks he'll get his 6 to 7 years guaranteed based on Zito and Santana while the Indians (based on the success, or lack thereof of contracts that long) rightly balked on guaranteeing the 6th year.
I had surmised that anything past a 4-year, $89M extension (which gives him 5 years of $20M per and was probably a stretch in terms of dollars) was foolish for the Tribe to do.
Knowing that C.C. WILL get more than that from someone after 2008, I don't think anyone's surprised.
Disappointed? Probably in that Sabathia will exercise his right to test the market that surely won't include the Indians' offer, but not surprised.
by The DiaTriber on
Feb 14, 2008 9:19 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
"so, uh, all that stuff about CC, uh, nevermind - he wants all the benjamins he can get for as long as he can get them. next week, i'll discuss how long a deal we should extend fausto for and the dollars that might make sense."
by Brick. on
Feb 14, 2008 9:36 PM EST
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by The DiaTriber on
Feb 15, 2008 9:06 AM EST
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by APV on
Feb 15, 2008 10:27 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
CC:
I have been an Indians fan for many years. I can remember watching you come up with the organization and the excitement of seeing you develop into one of the best pitchers in the league. The great games you put together, especially last season, will stay in my memory for years to come.
During this off-season, I was hopeful that you'd stay with the team, since all of the signals seemed to point to you putting together a long term deal. Everyone was saying the right things and making indications that a deal could get done.
From what I know, the team made an offer to you that amounts to its largest financial commitment to any player. Over the winter, you commented that you were looking forward to getting to Spring Training to continue discussions on a contract before the season began.
Yesterday, you unilaterally called off negotiations.
I can understand not wanting to be distracted with contract issues during the season. I cannot understand why you no longer want to engage in discussions during Spring Training. I can only conclude that your initial comments about negotiating were disingenuous and that you never really intended to engage the Indians in meaningful negotiations for a long term deal.
Since I do not see any realistic way the Indians can sign you to a long term deal, I would like to thank you now for all that you have done for the team. I look forward to seeing you compete with the team in 2008, and hope that you'll leave us a World Series Championship to remember you by.
Leonard Seaman
Edison, New Jersey
</tongue-in-cheek>
by Harry Doyle on
Feb 15, 2008 11:01 AM EST
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www.dictionary.com......u-n-i-l-a-t-e-r-a-l-l-y.
cc: "Huh?"
by Brick. on
Feb 15, 2008 11:22 AM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Some handler's going to tell him there's a guy in NJ who's pissed that he's gonna make boatloads more $$$ as a FA for a major market team.
CC: "Oh, ok...."
by Harry Doyle on
Feb 15, 2008 11:28 AM EST
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by rustyparts on
Feb 15, 2008 12:35 PM EST
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by supermarioelia on
Feb 15, 2008 1:53 PM EST
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by Gradyforpresident on
Feb 15, 2008 2:01 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
CC's out the door, and I really thought he'd stay. I think he probably was looking at giving us a discount - just not a $40 million and two extra years discount.
I don't think we can jump on him, because if he puts together another year like he had last year he could easily top the Zito deal from some idiot team (Dodgers?) I know the argument, "Well at some point how much money do you need", but $40 million more is a. lot. of. money. Can't fault him for that.
I also think we should stick with him, unless the Dodgers offer Kershaw-Kemp-Broxton-etc or some other crazy team decides to offer up its entire farm system.
Fausto's our #1. Starting now.
by Gradyforpresident on
Feb 15, 2008 12:54 PM EST
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This was a major Gaffe in my opinion by the front office. Why put the guy in a bind like this and force him to reject your pathetic offer. I wouldn't sign C.C because of his future and current health and injury risks but plenty of teams would love the opportunity to trade for and sign a play of C.C history. Now is the time to start rebuilding for the future. Shapiro didn't make any strike while the iron is hot deals this winter and none can be excepted from this front office. Shapiro's best asset as a GM is finding value in a rebuilding mode so why don't we do that instead of playing out the string and only recouping a draft pick, especially since Shapiro does not seem to draft particularly well.
by E5 on
Feb 15, 2008 1:47 PM EST
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You are looking for a "strike while the iron is hot" type of deal? What do you think holding on to a Cy Young caliber pitcher for 1 year is? Shapiro could easily get more talent that we will in the draft (especially considering Shapiro's drafting skills), but he won't to that.
Shapiro is in WIN NOW mode. He will not mortgage the future to do it with bad contracts, but he will surely hold on to a Cy Young winning ace on a 1 year below market deal. He would have to get blown away to let go of CC and for good reason. We are going to be an excellent team in 2008 and have as good a chance as anyone to win it all.
by KevinV on
Feb 15, 2008 2:35 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
"a smear campaign to make CC look like the bad guy"
"Why put the guy in a bind like this and force him to reject your pathetic offer."
"Now is the time to start rebuilding for the future"
"especially since Shapiro does not seem to draft particularly well."
Edgar, none of these things are true and you can't prove any of them. Please refrain from blatantly mischaracterizing the work of our Front Office and our current level of talent. The Cleveland Indians won as many games as your favorite team last year and they are well-positioned to do the same this year.
by NickFantana on
Feb 15, 2008 2:38 PM EST
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Thanks for the Cliffnotes version of this E5 rant. It made it easier (and funnier) to read.
by Harry Doyle on
Feb 15, 2008 3:00 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Like I said earlier: a deal mid-way between what the Tribe could pay and what CC can get on the open market would be a bad deal for CC and a bad deal for the Tribe. It was doomed from day one.
by mauichuck on
Feb 15, 2008 3:17 PM EST
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by Nat on
Feb 15, 2008 11:01 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Year Total Payroll Biggest Contract % of Payroll
2007 $61,673,267 $8,750,000 14.19%
2006 $56,031,500 $7,000,000 12.49%
2005 $41,502,500 $7,000,000 16.87%
2004 $34,319,300 $7,250,000 21.13%
2003 $48,584,834 $7,166,667 14.75%
2002 $78,909,499 $8,000,000 10.14%
2001 $93,360,000 $10,000,000 10.71%
2000 $76,500,000 $8,666,667 11.33%
1999 $73,857,962 $8,225,000 11.14%
1998 $59,033,499 $7,500,000 12.70%
1997 $54,130,232 $7,050,000 13.02%
1996 $45,317,914 $5,500,000 12.14%
1995 $35,185,500 $4,500,000 12.79%
1994 $28,490,167 $3,000,000 10.53%
1993 $15,717,667 $1,700,000 10.82%
1992 $8,236,166 $950,000 11.53%
1991 $18,270,000 $2,500,000 13.68%
1990 $15,152,000 $1,750,000 11.55%
You'll note that on only one occasion, 2004, did the largest contract exceed 20% of the total payroll - and that, I content - was an aberation: Matt Lawton. In every other year the largest contract did not exceed 15% of the total payroll. BTW the largest contract in '92 was Felix Fermin for godsakes. In '90 it was Keith Hernandez. Oh my aching head!
Historically the Indians have never committed that high a percentage of payroll to any one single player - never. And I don't think they were about to break with precendent with CC - even if you project the payroll to jump to $120 to $150M. It just doesn't fit with their model or their history.
by mauichuck on
Feb 16, 2008 12:38 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
In reality, I don't think it would be bad for either side. I'm not going to rehash everything that everyone else has said more eloquently than I can regarding salary structures, market shares and win shares, etc. And there are valid points to both sides. If it was cut and dry either way we wouldn't have a thread with >200 comments.
The only known fact is that one of the two parties thought it was a bad deal. I disagree, and think that in reality it wouldn't have been bad for either side to make the deal that was the compromise. It seems that CC was less willing to compromise and that's his prerogative. All I meant is that he would be getting $100M for 5 years of work (I'll assume he's working out the entire offseason and give him 5 full years), plus the option of signing another deal with significant time to be a quality pitcher. Seriously, it's kind of ridiculous to complain about that and say it's a "bad deal".
The irony is that it seems management was more willing to compromise by making an offer that is considerable higher (both $ and years) than what they might have been comfortable with. So even though they came more than halfway (IMO), they're left standing in the cold.
by Nat on
Feb 16, 2008 1:47 PM EST
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That said, it can't be denied that all of those pitchers left tens of millions on the table by passing up free agency. Just because it's normative doesn't mean that it's a solid business decision. My take on this is that you make that decision for reasons far beyond business, having to do with your family situation, your day-to-day quality of life, the potential contribution of your current organization (coaching, training, medical care) to your future success, and your sense of your own legacy. If you have factors in those areas that are worth more to you than adding another $25M or so to your pile of $100M-plus, then you do a contract extension. If you don't, then you opt for free agency, which as a pure business is the only sound one.
Now look at the team side. As a fan, I badly wanted this to happen, and I felt comfortable that as far as Shapiro was willing to go, it couldn't be that stupid of a move.
(As a side-note, I've talked in the past about a "historic significance" value that might have gone into budgeting for Thome beyond what makes sense to pay for on-field value year-to-year. I don't know that I felt that C.C. is quite at the same level as Thome in this regard, where you could talk seriously that there very well might be a statue of him next to Bob Feller's someday. C.C.'s extension was unlikely to get him past Lemon's 207 wins (let alone Harder's 223), or even up to 2160 strikeouts to surpass Sudden Sam as our top lefty -- or to get him into the HOF. Thome, on the other hand, was/is already the franchise leader in home runs, and over the course of his extension was likely to end up more than 200 HR ahead of Albert Belle while surpassing Averill's 3200 total bases (and Speaker and Lajoie along th way) and more or less finalizing a HOF resume. The point being, Sabathia might be just as great of a player as Thome, but he doesn't yet have Thome's historic significance to the franchise, and one more extension would not get him there.)
What was I saying? Oh, yeah, whatever Shapiro was going to be willing to pay couldn't have been that stupid. Right. But what it would be is on the outer limits of sensibility if not slightly past it. So speaking dispassionately as a guy "rooting for the laundry," one can't be too disappointed that it won't happen, since it would have been a coin-flip at best as to whether it was purely a "smart" move.
Since we're not just fans of the laundry but of the individual players, it's hard to see it that way. I am disappointed. I openly rooted for us to do something a little more risky than we probably should in order to keep this one great player. That was and is in my heart, and my brain was willing to go along with it. But once you get my heart out of the room, and out of earshot, my brain will pull you close and tell you that extending C.C. would have been a gamble, and not a particularly smart one.
by Jay on
Feb 16, 2008 3:11 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Hafner, with 141, will very likely pass Belle and Manny to move into second place during the 2011 season. Favorite Toy projects him for 331 home runs, but only about 300 by the end of his current deal (2012).
Taking this tangent totally off the rails ... this season, Victor will probably surpass Alomar and Hegan as our leading catcher in HR and RBI, and in hits, doubles and total bases in 2009. Hegan's 45 triples and Alomar's 24 SB appear to be safe, however, as Victor's career total in each category is exactly 1.
Sizemore needs only 10 HR to pass Kenny Lofton, and he's already passed Speaker, but he has quite a ways to go to catch either man in most any other category.
by Jay on
Feb 16, 2008 3:39 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I sure hope you're right about Hafner. I'm afraid he might go the way of another Tribe legend, Hal Trotsky a guy who lit it up from age 21 to 27 - note the ages - and hit 204 home runs in that period but only 23 more afterward.
Sizemore and Tris Speaker in the same sentence - one can only hope. And Victor he's damn good, damn good. If only he could hit and field like Johnny Romano. But I'll take him over any - any - catcher in the majors right now.
And I think we've found a middle ground regarding CC after months of posts. Signing CC - for the right price - would/could be a big gamble. My head overrides my heart on this one - sounds like yours does too. Loved to have him along for our next 4 or 5 WS wins, but if he doesn't wanna come along for the ride that's his tough luck
by mauichuck on
Feb 16, 2008 3:56 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
by Brick. on
Feb 15, 2008 3:41 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
Your boyz just barely got by us last year - and we're gonna be even stronger this year - with no change in the line-up whatsoever. I'm looking forward to slapping those whiney bitches from Boston around this year - almost as much as beating the crap outta those douche nozzles from New Yawk.
by mauichuck on
Feb 15, 2008 3:56 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
This would actually be tons of fun, pretending that Edgar is a Sox fan all year whenever he gets ridiculous.
Edgar: "The Indians stink, they can't hit, blow up the team"
LGT: "Alright there Mr. Sox fan, how's Schilling's arm holding up. We'll see you in October."
I'm giddy.
by supermarioelia on
Feb 15, 2008 5:01 PM EST
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Re: Sabathia rules out contract extension
I don't see why we even bothered to play that series. Shoudda just forfeited it and avoided the humiliation.


