After the Jacobs and Crisp trades, I thought it would be instructive to see where the payroll stands.  So, below you'll see the Royals current payroll.  I have included arbitration and pre-arbitration estimates.  I included arbitration numbers for just about all eligible players, except for Gobble and Gathright, as I think they either will be non-tendered or traded before opening day.

Before you jump to the numbers, I want to mention this from today's KC Star:

Even with a projected payroll pushing a club-record $70 million, the Royals, apparently, aren’t yet tapped out.

"There’s flexibility for us to do some other things," Moore said. "We have the opportunity to improve our payroll maybe 20-25 percent over last year."

Moore previously cited $70 million as a likely ceiling, which would represent roughly a 20 percent increase over last year’s $58.2 million payroll on opening day. A 25 percent hike boosts the total to about $72.7 million.

First, that $58.2M 2008 payroll number is, to put it succinctly, bullshit.  That is a weak, lazy and very soft job of journalism.  That was the payroll of the 25 men who happened to be on the MLB roster on opening day.  It was not the Royals actual 2008 major league payroll (total of all outlayed major league contract expenditures), nor even what it was projected to be back on opening day.  That number doesn't include Berroa's $5.25M salary as well as some others.

When all was said and done, the Royals 2008 MLB payroll was actually about $67M.  So when Moore says that he can improve payroll by 20-25 percent, I think that means that the payroll budget is potentially $80-84M.  Or that could just be fan-placating rhetoric on Moore's part.  But Moore certainly knows what the real major payroll was.  Currently, the Royals payroll projects at about $71M.

With respect, this isn't of a great deal of importance, but what else do we have to do?  Complain about the next "Royals are interested in Player X" rumor?  Anyway, there are no clear metrics for determining the winner of this little prediction contest.  But I think there were 3 clear finalists.  The semi-final election results were:

Obama +6.3

364 Electoral votes (wins North Carolina but not Missouri)

McCain concession speech starts at 11:16 EST

and your finalists:

DarthYoshi

Obama +5 points

338 Electoral votes

11:20 pm EST

RoyalRetro

Obama +6

352 Electoral votes

10:30 EST

KCBear

Obama +7.3%

364 Electoral votes

11:36 ET

All three were pretty close on each prediction.  Of the three, Retro was closest on popular vote margin.  KCBear nailed the electoral vote.  DarthYoshi was only a few minutes off on the concession speech time.

We're going to try this.  Let's all be polite and respectful of others.  Some of us want one candidate to win.  Some want another.  Some might even want a third guy to win.  Whatever.  Politics can get emotional.  Elections even moreso.  Election Day, triply so.  So let's avoid any nastiness before, during and after the returns come in.  

To spice things up a bit, let's have a prediction contest.  No prize or anything, just for bragging rights. [EDIT - I'll send the winner a free Royals Review T-Shirt]

Popular vote margin (such as: Barr +3.8)

Electoral votes of winning candidate 

Time that the loser begins his concession speech (be sure to include the time zone you're using)

I'll start things off with mine:

Obama +8.2

353

11:52 EST

One other thing.  If you haven't voted yet, GO VOTE!

Today is St. Crispin's Day.  This antiquated holiday commemorates a pair of twins who were martyred in A.D. 286, and on this day in 1415, the English fought the French in a mildly important battle near Agincourt, France.  The Battle of Agincourt would have likely faded to merely a footnote in the long history of French and English fighting over the two shores of the English Channel, if it had not been immortalized by Shakespeare in his play, Henry V.  The play’s climactic scene involves this battle. 

The English forces have been campaigning throughout France and are on their way home to England, but a French force cuts them off.  Exhausted from the campaign, the English face fresh troops which, as legend has it, outnumbers them 10-to-1.  The morale of the English soldiers is understandably low.  Enter young King Henry V, who gives arguably the best pre-game speech in history.  A pregame speech which would make Gandhi pick up a sword.  A pregame speech which makes Knute Rockne look like Tony Muser.

My fantasy for St. Crispin's Day 2009 is that Trey Hillman has to give a pregame speech to the Royals before Game 7 of the ALCS (I chose the ALCS, because the Yankees make for a more powerful foe than some NL team).  And this is the speech I would like for him to give (my apologies to The Bard).

[To see how this speech should be delivered, view Kenneth Branagh's version (Act 4, Scene 3)]

BUTLER

O I wish we had better players against these Yankees

HILLMAN

What's he that wishes so?

My friend Butler? No, my young friend;

If we are mark'd to lose, we are enow

To do Kansas City loss; and if to win,

Let it be us, we deserve the honour.

God's will! I pray thee, wish not one new player.

By Jove, I am not covetous for big contracts,

Nor care I who doth feed upon my cost;

It yearns me not if fans my jersey wear;

Such outward things dwell not in my desires.

But if it be a sin to covet winning,

I am the most offending soul alive.

No, faith, my friend, wish not for better players.

God's peace! I would not lose so great an honour

As one man more methinks would share from me

For the best hope I have. O, do not wish one more!

Rather proclaim it, Billy, through my host,

That he which hath no stomach for this game,

Let him depart; he will be given his unconditional release,

And he can even keep his per diem;

We would not play side by side with the man

That fears his fellowship to play with us.

This day is call'd the feast of Crispian.

He that plays this day, and comes safe home,

Will stand a tip-toe when this day is nam'd,

And rouse him at the name of Crispian.

He that shall play this day, and see old age,

Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,

And say 'To-morrow is Saint Crispian.'

Then will he strip his sleeve and show his championship ring

And say 'This ring I won on Crispian's day.'

Old players forget; yet all shall be forgot,

But he'll remember, with advantages,

What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,

Familiar in his mouth as household words-

Hillman the manager, Greinke and Meche

Gordon and Butler, DeJesus and Aviles-

Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.

This story shall the good fan teach his son;

And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,

From this day to the ending of the world,

But we in it shall be remembered-

We few, we happy few, we band of Royals;

For he to-day that takes this field with me

Shall always be a Royal; no matter where his career takes him,

This day shall make us all champions;

And gentlemen in Kansas City now-a-bed

Shall think themselves accurs'd that they didn't set their VCR's,

And hold their fanhoods cheap whiles any speaks

That played with us upon Saint Crispin's day!

KUNTZ

Skip, we better get out there;

The Yanks are taking the field,

And it’s almost time for the first pitch

HILLMAN

All things are ready, if our grit be so.

BUTLER

To hell with anyone who isn’t ready to play now!

HILLMAN

You don’t want better players, Billy?

BUTLER

Hell no.  I think you and me could take ‘em alone!

When talking about starting pitchers, we like to throw around labels like “ace” or “#2 SP” or “#3-quality pitcher.”  And when we do this, we all have some idea in our heads as to what that means.  The problem is that everyone has a somewhat different conception of these classifications, and I don’t know how accurately those ideas reflect reality.  I think that if those terms are to be meaningfully descriptive, they must reflect how a pitcher compares to the other starting pitchers in his league.  For instance, if you are in the top 1/5th of starting pitchers in your league, you’re an “ace” or “#1 SP”.  So I devised a simple study to describe statistically what a #1, #2, #3, #4 and #5 pitcher is, and what that says about the Royals starters. 

Continue reading this post »

Way back in the salad days of March, I posted the Big Prediction Contest.  Well, the results are in.  Below you’ll find the various stat categories, the actual result and then the average or plurality prediction from the contest in parentheses.

Record – 75-87 (79-83)

Runs Scored – 691 (766)

Runs Allowed – 781 (774)

Batting Average - .269 (.273)

OPS - .717 (.748)

HR – 120 (135)

ERA – 4.48 (4.53)

Runs – Gordon (DeJesus)

Doubles – Guillen (Butler)

Triples – DeJesus (Teahen)

Home Runs – Guillen (Gordon)

RBI – Guillen (Guillen)

Walks – Gordon (DeJesus)

Stolen Bases – Gathright (Gathright)

Batting Average  (min 125 AB) – Aviles (Butler)

OBP (min 125 AB) – DeJesus (DeJesus)

SLG (min 125 AB) – Aviles (Guillen)

OPS (min 125 AB) – Aviles (Butler)

Wins – Meche (Meche)

Saves – Soria (Soria)

Quality Starts – Greinke (Meche)

Holds – R. Ramirez, Mahay (Gobble)

Innings Pitched – Meche (Meche)

Strike outs – Meche, Greinke (Greinke)

K/9 (min 40 IP) – Soria (Soria)

BB/9 (min 40 IP) – Tomko (Bannister)

ERA (min 40 IP) – Soria (Soria)

Tie breaker: Games out of first place – 13 (15)

The top 10 out of the 37 entries are as follows:

1.  Gopherballs 45 (won on tie breaker)

2.  RoyalsRetro 45

3.  kcisbetterthanstlateverything 43

4.  loyal2’sdad 41

5.  RoyalsNation 40 (tb)

6.  Firebell 40

7.  Billex Gordler 39

8.  dman126 37

9.  MileHighKCfan 36 (tb)

10. I need more Esteban 36

Congrats to Gopherballs on his prescience.  The Big Prediction Contest will be back next March, probably with some tweaks.