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Bluejayperched

hugo

Mar 29, 2008 Oct 10, 2008 371 7025

28-year old father, lawyer for Uncle Sam, and singer/guitarist based in Washington D.C. Thanks for stopping by Bluebird Banter!

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Padres Waive Michael Barrett, Should the Jays Take a Look?

Well, the title pretty much says it all. Barrett missed most of this season because of injuries and wasn't any good last year, but he did have 3 solid seasons prior to that and we're not exactly flush at the catcher position. The Jays have all but said that they won't bring Zaun back, and they didn't really appear to like Thigpen at the position. Barrett might give some cover for J.P. Arencibia so that he's not rushed up until ready, and he could even discover his former form, where he was an above-average offensive performer.  His defense might not be particularly good, but his career OPS+ of 89 sure looks a lot better than Big Rod's 77.  It might be worth taking a look, since he's unlikely to cost any more than Zaun did this season.  What do y'all think?

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Final 2008 Report Card, Bullpen

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Well, when we last met, we looked at the starting pitching and previously, Rince took a look at the hitting.  This time, we'll take a look at the Jays who were responsible for protecting leads, holding the line in hopes of a Jays comeback that, let's face it, usually didn't come, and mopping up. 

B.J. Ryan:  B.J. came back incredibly fast from T.J. surgery, over 6 months early in fact, and worked himself quickly back into the closer's role.  B.J. wasn't his old self, but he was an effective closer for the Jays this season, despite what some fans would have you believe.  Ryan struck out exactly one batter per inning but did walk a few more than he had in the past.  Ryan managed a healthy 146 ERA+ (2.95 ERA) and his groundball and other batted ball stats were back to his 2006 levels (with the noted exception that he wasn't getting as many popups).  The one thing that was interesting was that B.J. was throwing almost no changeups.  Since his delivery is deceptive, I think rediscovering that pitch could be a big help to B.J. I look for him to be even better in 2009.  A-

Jeremy Accardo:  Accardo, who broke through last season to fill in as closer, pitched only 12 innings this season before a weird forearm injury sidelined him.  Jeremy couldn't get healthy and missed the rest of the season.  Incomplete

Scott Downs:  Downs was basically unbelievable, having one of the best seasons of any reliever in the league and one of the Jays' all-time best setup man seasons.  Downs, who was used more as a LOOGY last season (and having a fantastic season in 2007 as well), stepped up and became a shutout 8th inning man.  The Jays actually talked about making Downs a starter.  All told, Downs had a sparkling 1.78 ERA (246 ERA+!) over 66 games and 70 2/3 innings.  He wasn't striking out quite as many as in 2007, but he continued to get lots of ground balls and was also walking fewer men.  Now, no one whose name isn't Mariano Rivera can put up a season like that every year, but Downs' season wasn't a fluke either.  He's had two shutdown years for the Jays in a row, in two different roles.  He did wear down at the end of the season.  A+

Brandon League:  The young Hawaiian power arm rediscovered the form that made him so effective in 2006 and became one of the most important parts of the Jays bullpen.  League started off the season walking way too many, but he really settled down after the break, walking only 3 in August and September.  Similarlly, his K numbers came on strong, striking out 17 in 20 2/3 innings through the last two months of the season.  All told, League had a very good season and looks poised to be even better next season.  A-

Jesse Carlson:  The man we call "Cy" came out of nowhere this season and boy was it fun to watch.  The lanky lefty bewildered opposing hitters, right and left-handed, with his breaking ball and his ability to get ahead in the count.  Who can forget Cy's amazing performance when he came in with the bases loaded and no out and proceeded to strike out the side?  Unfortunately, the Jays lost that game (it was the A.J. relief game, I think), but a legend was born.  Carlson did not let up the rest of the season either, pitching 60 innings over 69 games, and putting up exceptional numbers: a 198 ERA+, 55 Ks, 21 walks, and a 1.033 Whip.  Carlson was probably a bit lucky, but he was also extremely good.  A

Brian Tallet:  The tall lefty had another quietly effective season in 2008, finishing with a 150 ERA+ in a mix of high and low-leverage roles.  Tallet continues to improve his peripherals, particularly his walk rates, and was a valuable member of the pen, striking out 47 and walking 22 over 56 innings.  I'm not sure that Tallet will be back next season, but he was a good find for J.P., putting up 3 quality seasons. B+

Jason Frasor:  Frasor just keeps disappearing more and more.  With a dearth of righties in the pen this season, one would think it would've been his time to step up, but neither Gibbons nor Cito seemed inclined to trust Frasor, who isn't likely to be back.  Jason had a league average (103 ERA+) season, but for a reliever that's certainly nothing special, and neither were his peripherals stats.  C

Brian Wolfe:  Wolfe battled arm problems but ultimately solidified some of the gains that made him so effective in 2007.  Wolfe pitched only 22 innings but ended up with very fine numbers, including a 1.09 Whip.  Wolfe is not a strikeout pitcher, but he limits his walks enough to be effective.  B

John Parrish:  Parrish wasn't very good as a starter but he was great out of the pen, putting up a 1.86 ERA and holding batters to a .656 OPS.  He wasn't used in many high-leverage situations, but he held down the fort so that the Jays' principal arms could be saved for the close games.  B

Shawn Camp:  Camp, coming off an awful 2007, added a changeup and was okay, putting up decent numbers out of the pen. Unfortunately, no one seemed to be able to figure out that Camp is terrible against lefties, and so he wasn't used properly, despite pretty much everyone on Bluebird Banter figuring it out rather quickly, and despite the fact that there was really no need for him to pitch to lefties, with the Jays sporting 4 and even 5 lefties in the pen this season.  Camp's splits:  lefties OPSed a Bondian .976 against him, while righties put up a J-mac-ish .515 OPS.  C+ (though through no fault of his own)

And

Cito Gaston:  I find it really hard to evaluate managers, but Cito seemed to get the best out of his players, and that's what counts.  Would the hitting have improved under Gibbons (and was some of it due to change in personnel) ?  Probably, but it was great to see Cito actually sitting with his young players and talking to them - Alex Rios looked lost at the plate until the last few months, and Gibby just ignoring him sure didn't seem to help.  Cito's management of pitchers isn't really to my taste, he can really leave a starter in too long, but it didn't hurt the Jays too much this season as their rotation was so good. Next season could be a different story, though. Cito also inexplicably seemed to hate Eckstein, which is pretty much the opposite of every other MLB manager - I don't really know what to think about that, but I doubt it made too much of a difference.    B+

J.P. Ricciardi:  The Wilkerson/Mench thing sure didn't work out.  Ditching Reed for Stewart didn't either.  Sending Lind down after 19 at-bats was inexplicable.  Marcum and Litsch were both weirdly sent to AAA, showing what seemed to me to be a lack of patience.  But J.P. put together a good team this season, a team good enough to compete for the playoffs in most situations.  The Jays never really did, but I'm not sure that was J.P.'s fault.  The real work for J.P. starts now, as there is so much up in the air.  B.

 

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Republished: Final 2008 Report Card, Starting Pitchers

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Roy Halladay:  What more needs be said?  Doc was incredible, having one of his best seasons.  246 innings of 155 ERA+ (more than 50% better than the average pitcher in the league), going the distance 9 times, and striking out a whopping 206 while walking only 39.  Doc was just dominant, with a 1.053 WHIP, and lead the league in Whip, complete games, shutouts, and strkeouts to walk ratio, while finishing second in ERA.  That he lost 11 games can only be blamed on the Jays lousy offense, as he gave up 3 or less runs in 6 of the 11 losses.  Find me another pitcher who gave up 3 or less runs in more than half the games he lost.  Okay, find one who's not on the Jays.  He once again anchored the pitching staff and seemed to rediscover his strikeout stuff, while still getting just as many ground balls.  Masterful.  The only concern is that he was throwing less fastballs and sinkers and more cutters this season, and I hope that doesn't come back next season.  A+

A.J. Burnett:  Despite what you may have heard, it hasn't been a career year for A.J., except perhaps in one sense:  his health.  A.J. pitched the most innings of his career, and put together a quality season, leading the league in strikeouts (231) and strikeouts per 9 innings.  A.J. gave up a few too many baserunners, though, with 86 walks and 211 hits (which isn't a lot at all for his 221 innings, but A.J. is usually a lot more hit stingy).  For all the ink that's been spilled, A.J. wasn't all that much better than a league average pitcher this season (106 ERA+) but he was good enough and healthy enough to win 18 games, which all but assures he will opt out of his contract and become a free agent, though the Jays have made an honest effort to resign him.  In A.J.'s defense, he seems to have gotten rather hit unlucky (a .328 BABIP accompanying a big reduction in his HR rate is a bit tough to swallow) and his peripherals were as good as they've ever been, with a Fielding Independent ERA a nice 3.45.  B+

Dustin McGowan:  McGowan only made 19 starts before a labrum injury ended his season and cast his career into doubt.  Dusty was almost exactly league average (ERA+ of 99), but mostly he was just inconsistent in his results, though his peripherals weren't bad.  He also put up a FIP lower than his ERA, at 3.81 (weird that he and A.J. had poor FIP/ERA results when the Jays defense is so good), and was unlucky both with hits and runners left on base, though not ridiculously so.  McGowan's K numbers were down, and he was also giving up more fly balls and less ground balls, but it's hard to judge him too harshly since he really only pitched half a year and it's not clear whether the injury affected his performance (he had four mediorcre starts in a row before getting hurt).  A healthy McGowan for half the season next year would be a big boost for the team.   C+ but Incomplete

Shaun Marcum:  Marcum had a strange year.  For most of the season, he was lights-out when he pitched, finishing with a 127 ERA+ and generally serving as the Jays de facto number 2 starter when A.J. was scuffling.  It wasn't luck either, as Shaun posted excellent peripheral numbers (7.31 K/9, 2.97 BB/9) and improved his home run rate measurably, which was great to see.  Marcum's 1.16 WHIP probably was helped by some luck with batted balls, since his FIP was only about league average.  Marcum hit the DL with some elbow issues, and his return seemed rushed by the Jays.  He had a few good starts, and then after one mediocre start against Boston, he was suddenly sent down to AAA.  Reports were that the Jays had slowed down Marcum's delivery temporarily with the goal of improving the consistency of his mechanics and command.  Anyway, Marcum was great when he returned, with lights out starts against the Rays and the White Sox.  And then, the sadness.  TJ and the best we and Shaun can do is hope for 2010.  I love the guy and can't wait to see him pitch again - he's a blast to watch as he drops any pitch at any count and gets strikeouts despite having a fastball that rarely gets above 90.  A-

Jesse Litsch:  I'm not sure what people expected of Jesse Litsch, who came out of nowhere last season, but I think it's fair to say that he exceeded almost everyone's expectations.  Litsch posted a 13-9 record and a very fine 3.58 ERA.  Even more impressively, Litsch increased his strikeouts (by a whole strikeout per 9 innings), decreased his walks (ditto) from 2007 and did it all without too much luck on balls in play (though he certainly was helped by the Jays fine defense).  A 120 ERA+ from a second-year, 23 year old pitcher is very impressive, and Litsch also seems quite durable, which is great for a rotation with so many question marks going into 2009.  Litsch will have a lock on a rotation spot going into 2009, and there's no question but that he deserves it.  Really, the only blip on his season was a few bad starts, which the Jays felt necessitated a short trip to AAA, and Litsch was great upon his return.  Jesse is the kind of pitcher who will have to prove himself again and again, but so far, so good.  A-

David Purcey:  Purcey's overall numbers are not very impressive, but he showed flashes of briliance in 12 starts this season, with a couple of clunkers in there too.  Purcey's K numbers (better than 8 per 9 innings) are excellent for a starter but he walked too many (4 per 9) and those kind of walk numbers will kill you unless you are truly dominant, which David wasn't.  On the bright side, his FIP was almost a run better than his ERA, so he was a little unlucky with runners left on and the like.  Indeed, just pitching to his FIP this season would make him an acceptable, though not great, 5th starter.  However, this was Purcey's first taste of the bigs, and though he's not a kid, pitchers develop at different times.  It's nice to have a lefty in the rotation, and if Purcey can cut down on his walks, he certainly can contribute.  The Jays may be forced to hand Purcey a rotation spot next season, so let's hope he's ready.  C-

Scott Richmond:  Richmond only started 5 games, but he may be a contributor next season so let's take a look, with the usual small sample size caveats.  Richmond started 5 games, and never stunk up the place, which I actually find quite impressive for a rookie pitcher, and his overall numbers were quite good (108 ERA+).  Richmond's last two seasons were his best, even throwing a shutout in his last start (ok, rain-shortened, but still an impressive showing).  Richmond's walk numbers were absurdly low (.67/9 innings, and he was nowhere near that stingy in the minors) so that's  not going to continue, but you have to love a 10/1 K/BB ratio, even Doc didn't manage that.  Richmond wasn't at all lucky on batted balls, so there's room for improvement in that area that could partially offset the increase in walks that would be expected.  Richmond basically throws fastballs and sliders (his fastball has some pop and his slider has a nice tight break), with the occasional changeup and the very occasional curve, so if he doesn't work out in the rotation I think he could be a very good late-inning righty reliever with that combo, coupled with his proclivity for pounding the strike zone. Incomplete, but if I had to give a grade, it'd be a solid B. 

John Parrish actually started one more game than Richmond, but since he was good as a reliver and stunk as a starter, and certainly doesn't fit into the Jays long-term rotation plans, I'll do him a favor and evaluate him there.  Stay tuned for the pen and for management, and of course post your comments and criticisms below!

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I'm Coming Home, Via Chicago: Recap, Day 4 of Playoffs

Well, might as well make it an even hundred. 

Los Angeles Dodgers 3, Chicago Cubs 1: The Cubs once again failed to advance as Hiroki Kuroda, James Loney (fast becoming my favourite non-Jay player not named Ichiro) and the Dodgers swept the Cubs out of the ALDS.  Russell Martin, Manny Ramirez, and Rafael Furcal also had excellent series for the Blues, who enjoyed great starting pitching from Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, and Kuroda as well as excellent work out of the bullpen (with the exception of Takashi Saito). Great starting pitching, shutdown bullpen work, and fantastic hitting out of the whole top half of the lineup - Now that's how you win a DS.  Reed Johnson, who by the way, ended the season with an OPS 1 point lower than Joe Inglett (.779) never got into the series, unfortunately.

Milwaukee 4, Philadelphia 1:  The Brewers did their best to make this a series by staving off elimination behind a good performance from ex-Jay David Bush (good thing he didn't have to face an AL East team since we all know he's not an AL East pitcher (not that I'm complaining about the Overbay trade, since it was an excellent trade for the Jays - I just found that to be a pointless post-hoc potshot by J.P.))  The ageless one, Jamie Moyer, didn't have a great start, and the bullpen did not perfom well either for the Phils.  Matt Stairs pinch-hit but unsuccessfully, while former Jay Jayson Werth continued to have a great series with two more hits.  Mike Cameron and Bill Hall, the Brew Crew's 1-2 hitters, each got on base 3 times, which is a good way to win a game.  J.J. Hardy was the big stick man with 3 hits, scoring and driving in a run.  Bluebird Banter's other Brewer dream target, Prince Fielder, had a sacrifice fly and walked.  Pat Burrell is still hitless in the series (though with 2 bases on balls), not helping his value on the market.  Game 4 between the two teams doesn't feature an exciting playoff pitching matchup with Cupcakes Blanton facing off against Clone Warrior Jeff Suppan.

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Day 3 of Playoffs Recap

Yesterday was a good day for teams that won their first ALDS game, as the Rays and Red Sox went 2-0 up on their ALDS foes.  Chicago at least is going home, but the Angels seem pretty much done. 

Tampa Bay 6, Chicago 2:  Tampa beat Chicago behind a good start from Scott Kazmir and solid work from it's bullpen.  Former Bluebird Banter target Akinori Iwamura hit a 2-run home run, Dioner Navarro and Carl Crawford had good days at the plate, B.J. Upton tripled and scored, and Rocco Baldelli chipped in with an RBI single. Toronto media favourite Orlando Cabrera did do a nice job leading off for the Chi Sox, with 2 hits in 4 appearances.  Matt Garza will face John Danks in game 3 on Sunday with the Sox facing elimination. 

Boston 7, Los Angeles of Anaheim 5:  It has been years and I still cannot get over how stupid that name is.  Ervin Santana gave up 4 runs in the first inning to put Boston out on top, but the Angels fought back to tie this game at 5 going into the 9th inning.  Enter K-Rod, perhaps having one of the most overrated seasons for a closer of all time.  J.D. Drew hit a 2-run bomb, Papelbon shut down the Angels, and the Sox won again. Boston and the Angels will also play their game 3 on Sunday with the Halos facing elimination and turning to Joe Saunders.  Josh Beckett pitches for the Sox.

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Return of the Grievous Angel

Hi, everyone. I apologize for being awol for a while - the craziest thing happened. I cut myself while cooking way back last Monday, and somehow the cut got infected with what turned out to be MRSA, a nasty antibiotic-resistant type of staph infection. Trying to treat it as a normal infection didn't work, of course, and so before I knew it I was in the hospital with a hand the size of Shaq (though considerably more red and excruciatingly painful). Luckily, I responded fairly well to the IV antibiotics and surgery to porotect the hand wasn't necessary, but I was in the hospital for 4 days on the IV. I got home from the hospital yesterday and am feeling much better, though I have probably a week or so before I can use my left hand again (one-handed typing sucks, btw).

Crazy story, right? On the plus side, I missed the Mets collapse (at least the end of it), I got to watch some playoff baseball, and am a little more like Alex Rios now. So, the lesson - don't get MRSA.

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Well you know I went to Baltimore / So confident and wise / And as I breathed she breathed no more / And she did surely die : Game Thread, Jays at O's



 

Tonight's post title comes from "Baltimore," a great song of the best-titled (though not my favourite) Lyle Lovett record, Joshua Judges Ruth.  The Jays head in to Baltimore to end their series, and J.P. Ricciardi must be feeling pretty confident and wise after the Jays gave him another year to make the playoffs, despite the fact that the team looks to end this season in 4th place and with a record not significantly better than they've done in the past two seasons. Please do let us know what you think about J.P. being back for another year in the comments and poll for the post below, and stop by and chat about that, as well as the game and anything else on your mind, tonight in the game thread. 

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Return. You Were Supposed to Return: J.P. Ricciardi Back for 2010

A little OK Go on this rainy friday here in D.C.  So the Jays made it official - J.P. Ricciardi will be returning as Jays General Manager next season. Paul Godfrey, though, Jays president, hasn't yet decided whether he will be back next season.

Predictably, some believe the move to keep J.P. on to be quite head-scratching. But I have to say, though some of J.P.'s individual moves have been poor, others have been great, and I do think J.P. has the right idea in terms of building a baseball team.  He put together an incredible pitching staff over the last two years, both in the rotation and the bullpen, and with so many rotation questions going into next season, the Jays could use his acumen in assembling their starting staff.  He's done a fine job retaining his players, even though in the case of some of them, it may have been better to let them go. 

Like any GM, he has his strengths and weaknesses.  My biggest concern with J.P. is his tendency to approach problem areas by throwing several mediocre players at a problem and hoping that one sticks.  This isn't always a bad strategy, but it hasn't really worked out well for the team so far and the result has basically been that the Jays' problem areas remain as problem areas year after year after year.  I am also concerned that he lacks the creativity to put the Jays over the top in a tough division.  I'm afraid he is treading water with the team, never rebuilding, but never going all in - tying up his payroll and playing time by locking in average and slightly-above average players, and just hoping that one year, things break the Jays' way.  This might work, but it doesn't seem to me that it is what GMs get paid for. 

What do y'all think?  Vote and more importantly, leave your comments below.

 

Poll
What do you think about the Jays retaining J.P. Ricciardi as GM for the 2009 season?
  • Good move. Ricciardi has the team on the right track
  • Awful move. He's the longest-serving GM without a playoff appearance, is a PR joke, and doesn't know what he's doing

  24 votes | Results

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Camden Chat Picks the 2008 AL East All Star Team

Hey y'all, not much going on in the world of Jays, so I thought I send a great post from a sister SB Nation site y'all's way. 

Camden Chat has selected the 2008 AL East All-Star Team, and the Jays did not fare too well in the selections.  In fact, only one Jay made the team, Doc Halladay. No other Jays were selected. 

I might quibble and say that Downs should've been the setup man, but other than that, not too much argument.  If more pitchers were selected, surely the Jays would've had better representation.

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So It's Better, My Sweet, That We Hover Like Bees, Because There's No Sure Footing - Game Thread, Yankees at Jays



Not sure that there's any particular reason that Zaun is starting again, after his stellar performance yesterday, another poor offensive performance for the team that allowed Mike Mussina, one of the biggest jerks in major-league baseball, to inch closer to that 20-win mark. 

But that's not important.  What is important is that A.J. Burnett will be making tonight what is overwhelmingly likely to be his final start as a Jay.  Today's title, coming from a great song by the lovely Neko Case, struck me as appropriate.  Anyone think it's at all likely that the Jays keep A.J.?  

Well, A.J., the local media hated you for some reason, but you seem like a good guy to me, and everyone says you're a great teammate.  You deserve the big bucks and a fanbase that will appreciate your talent.  You're 9th on the Jays all-time list for ERA, 8th in Whip, and 3rd in K/9.  Let's give the Yankees one more beating before they offer you the big bucks to play for them.

The highly touted Phil Hughes (though the shine is off that apple a bit) pitches for the Yankees.  Knowing us, today will be the first day of the rest of his career.  Let's go Jays!

 

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