FanPost

Extending the Window: Finding Bullpen Help for 2019-2021

With the Indians' starting rotation all locked up through 2020 and Francisco Lindor on the team through at least 2022 (praying for a lengthy extension this offseason or next), I hope and believe the Indians' front office will be looking to stretch the proverbial competitive window for three more years, 2019-2021. By that time, the Indians should have some pretty stiff competition from the White Sox, who are quietly stockpiling elite talent that should be major-league ready in a couple years, and possibly from the Twins, if they can find some pitching.

One big question the Indians will have to answer is how to maintain and strengthen their bullpen, with Andrew Miller and Cody Allen becoming free agents after this year. I think most of us would agree that re-signing either or both would be our dream option, but with Bryan Shaw (don't get me wrong - I love and appreciate Shaw, but he's no Miller or Allen) getting 27 million over 3 years, it's hard to fathom the Indians devoting anything like the amount of salary money required to keep either of their shutdown late-inning guys following this year. As I said, I dream that I could be wrong and Miller and Allen could finish their careers as Tribe players, but at the same time, I also hope the Indians don't allocate a ton of money to keep a closer, because I'd rather they spend it on people like Lindor and Bauer and Carrasco.

So, what are the options for replacing Andrew Miller and Cody Allen? Here are some possibilities I can see:

Internal Options:
The Indians' bullpen this year will likely include Nick Goody, Tyler 0.00lson, Dan Otero and Zach McAllister. The first three are under team control through 2020, and McAllister is a free agent in 2019. There are no guarantees with bullpen arms, but we can feel reasonably confident about Goody, Olson and Otero being solid, reliable relievers from what we have seen so far. Goody had an excellent year, actually pitching better against lefties (in an admittedly small sample size of 18.1 innings allowing a .243 wOBA) than against righties (.288 wOBA against), but was, obviously, not tested in high-leverage scenarios. Those opportunities might be the next natural step in his development, with his solid low-90's four-seam fastball and a slider that can be devastating at times. Tyler Olson had a brilliant stretch to end the season, and pitched well against left-handed and right-handed hitters alike, but I think it's safe to assume the Indians would like to have him in a mostly left-handed specialist role. Indians fans know Otero's reliability in the past two years, and, for what it's worth, he did well in his 32 innings of Medium Leverage scenarios over the past two years (.217 and .208 wOBA against, respectively). I wonder, however, if the Indians this year will allow McAllister to step into the role vacated by Shaw, and test the waters to see if he can be a high-leverage option. Without a track record of being a high leverage reliever, the time to extend McAllister might be now, with the hope of having him as option to be an 8th or 9th inning guy starting in 2019. In 2017, McAllister found increased success by dropping his changeup in favor of his curveball, and it was an effective pitch, allowing only a .261 wOBA against while throwing it. Perhaps with another year of using it and locating his fastball, he could become a Cody Allen clone. However, there's no denying that McAllister's command is often a struggle, and, despite being given high leverage opportunities in the past, he has yet to demonstrate the consistency needed for a late-inning option.

The Indians' minor league system provides some intriguing candidates for bullpen help. Of the Indians top 30 prospects listed by MLB, 9 are pitchers. At least three of those pitchers seemed destined for a role in the starting rotation - Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, and Shane Bieber have too much command and stuff at this early point in their careers to even consider putting them in a relief role. Brady Aiken, James Karinchak and Juan Hillman are too new in the development process to project their being able to help in a bullpen role in 2019-2021.

On the other hand, I believe Julian Merryweather, Shawn Morimando and Ryan Merritt have potential to get reliever experience in 2018 and perhaps provide some help for the back-end of the bullpen in 2019 and beyond. We are all aware of Merritt's abilities - he is a strike thrower who uses some smoke-and-mirrors and a nerves of steel to get batters out inexplicably. It's hard to find a ton of examples of soft-tossing lefties who make it long-term in a starting role, let alone a bullpen role, but at this point, I refuse to count Ryan Merritt out of any competition. Sure, he's a tremendous long-shot to become a late-inning reliever, but I can't help hoping he makes the roster as a long-relief guy this year so he can stay with the Tribe. Meanwhile, Merryweather throws 93-96 with the fastball and has an average changeup to go with it. He has climbed all the way to Triple-A and should be knocking on the door of the majors this year. Would the Indians have him try closing at Columbus? Will they bring him up to do some 5th or 6th inning work this year? Possibly, but, of course, the value of a young starter is not something they will allocate to a less valuable bullpen role unless Merryweather's skill-set dictates such a move, or the major league club's needs demand it. Similarly, Shawn Morimando certainly still has the chance to develop as a major league starter, but with a great out-pitch in his slider and a fastball sitting in the low 90's, he certainly presents an intriguing option as a left-handed reliever. He has shown durability, throwing 150 innings in three straight years, and he has proven about as much as he can in the minors. I would be surprised not to see Morimando make some spot starts this year and possibly spend some time in the bullpen, where he could earn himself a chance to help cover for Miller and Allen in 2019.

The minor-league additions this offseason of Alexi Ogando and Lisalverto Bonilla could also be pieces of the puzzle. Ogando, particularly, has shown flashes of being a valuable major leaguer, but it's impossible to project anything certain from these two reclamation projects.

Finally, we know the Indians could also turn to Mike Clevinger, Danny Salazar or even Cody Anderson, returning from serious elbow injury, to help staff their bullpen. I think this is a make or break year for Salazar, and if his conditioning and discipline remain a question mark this year, he certainly has the stuff to be an effective reliever. Does he have the makeup? That seems to be a key question for him in all respects. I would be shocked if the Indians look at Clevinger as a possible option for a long-term bullpen role, especially considering the high-end starter look he had at several points in 2017. But, with that said, there's no question Clevinger seems to have the stuff and the composure to excel in high leverage spots. And, there's no way to know what to expect from Anderson, but, IF he makes a successful comeback, he certainly could be looked at as a bullpen option.

External Options
The Indians could also look to trade for a late-inning option, of course, and I think they are likely to make at least one of these moves either this summer or next offseason. Perhaps a team like Milwaukee or Seattle falls out of playoff contention, looks to take a step back and is willing to part with a Corey Knebel or Edwin Diaz. A young, controllable closer like that would cost a lot in prospects (see, the Andrew Miller trade) but it might be the best way to fill a Miller-Allen sized hole. More likely, I think the Indians would trade for or sign a young, controllable set-up man they view with closing potential and an older, proven arm (a Joe Smith-type) to supplement their internal options. One thing's for certain - the Indians are not going to go on a Colorado-like bullpen-shopping spree next offseason, nor should they. One significant bullpen signing of a proven major-league arm would be the most I would expect.

Final Verdict:
The Indians are going to need to do some work to fill the 8th and 9th inning roles on their team for 2019-2020 or 2021. The good news is that Antonetti, Chernoff and Francona have shown the ability to put together reliable bullpens using their minor league system, their overall major-league ready pitching depth, reclamation projects, and trades. The bad news is that there are no sure things when it comes to relief pitching, which is why consistent players like Shaw, Miller and Allen are valuable, but also why it's probably not worth giving players like them $8-15 million dollars a year for three-four years. Relief pitchers are simply failed starters, after all, and proven relievers should almost always be replaceable at cheaper costs, though the replacements may take some developing. This season will be a crucial chance for the Indians not only to compete while enjoying the riches of Miller and Allen in the bullpen, but also a critical opportunity to work on developing and experimenting with options to replace them in the years to come.

FanPosts are reader-generated, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Covering the Corner or the Covering the Corner staff.