FanPost

An Early Look at the Tribe's Payroll

I intended to save this post for after the World Series, but all my other article ideas involved payroll discussions. So instead of investigating the outfield, our qualifying offer candidates, and other potential strategic discussions: I'd like to get an overview of where this team stands in 2019 for our payroll. I will break this down in expiring contracts, guaranteed deals, Team Options, and our arbitration cases.

Expiring Contracts

The Indians have several players with contracts which expire at the end of this season, overall with an enormous amount of money shedded from the payroll, and they are:

Michael Brantley, $11.5M

Andrew Miller, $9.0M

Cody Allen, $10.75M

Josh Tomlin, $3.0M

Lonnie Chisenhall, $5.59M

Melky Cabrera, $1.0M

Oliver Perez, $1.75M

Rajai Davis, $1.75M

Overall, $44.34M is coming off the books for the Indians this season, not an insignificant amount of money. Included in this amount is practically the entirety of our bullpen, several key bench pieces, and two starting outfielders.

Guaranteed Contracts

Unfortunately, the Indians do have an enormous amount of payroll already committed for 2019. Overall, $80.7M is already committed to in 2019, besides options and arbitration raises. These contracts include:

Edwin Encarnacion. 1 Year remaining: $26.67M guaranteed (2020 option worth $20M)

This is the largest contract in team history, and despite a general decline in the slugger's offensive production it's largely been worth it for the Indians thus far. Although his salary is only a little over $21M in 2019, he has $5M guaranteed in his 2020 option, which is likely to be declined unless Edwin produces big this season.

Jason Kipnis, 1 Year remaining: $17.17M guaranteed (2020 option worth $16.5M)

Another big extension for Cleveland. His option is also likely to be declined, even if he produces big.

Corey Kluber, 1 Year remaining: $18.2M guaranteed (2020 & 2021 options worth $13M)

Kluber's contract included riders which increased his base salary by $4M if he won/finished in the Cy Young Award races. He also has a guaranteed $1.0M buyout in next year's option. This contract is an absolute steal for Cleveland; for all the complaining of generational talents leaving, Corey Kluber is a notable exception and an exhibit A of a player remaining for the entirety of his prime. If he continues on this path: he could enter the Hall of Fame.

Yonder Alonso, 1 Year remaining: $8.08M guaranteed (2020 option vests at 550 plate appearances)

This contract hasn't quite worked out as planned, but he will at least play one more season. Granted his playing time may wind up being reduced.

Yan Gomes, 1 Year Remaining: $8.08M guaranteed (2020 option has a $1M buyout, worth $9.0M, 2021 option $11M)

Gomes' contract has been about average, another contract with several team options attached to it.

Roberto Perez, 2 Years Remaining: $8.67M guaranteed (2021 option worth $5.5M, and 2022 option worth $7M)

Another decent contract, worth about what you'd expect him to make on the open market, with less guaranteed years.

Dan Otero: 1 Year remaining: $1.3M guaranteed (2020 option worth $1.5M)

Jose Ramirez: 3 years remaining: $22.2M guaranteed (2022 & 2023 options)

This deal is a steal. Jose is only making $4.15M in 2019.

Overall, these contracts represent the bulk of what Cleveland will pay its players in 2019. In this group the Tribe sees an $16M payroll increase, just on salary raises on currently guaranteed players. However, there is still plenty of money remaining to discuss.

Team Options

Some players are on guaranteed contracts, with team options. The Indians have a knack for signing players to deals with several team contracts at the end. This year those players include:

Carlos Carrasco: $9.0M Team Option, $665k buyout

This option gets picked up as a matter of course. No chance they decline it. The Tribe has another option year for 2020.

Brandon Guyer: $3.0M Team Option, $250k buyout

Part of me really hopes this gets declined, but I anticipate the Indians exercising this option. He's not a terrible platoon player for $3.0M, and with so few outfielders on the rosters, we need bodies to fill in. As a lefty masher: Guyer serves a purpose.

Overall, only two options to discuss. The increase in payroll here, assuming both options are exercised which is likely, the Tribe's payroll increases a little over $1M.

Arbitration Players

This is where the money really hurts the Indians in 2019. Several players are in line for huge raises going into 2019, starting with:

Francisco Lindor: First Year of Arbitration. Projected around $10M

This is the big one. Lindor will go from making the league minimum to at least $10M. Barring some kind of multi year deal which limits his current salary for future wage increases, I cannot see Lindor falling short of this number.

Trevor Bauer, Second Year of Arbitration, Projected over $10M

Another big one, Bauer famously said he would never sign a long term contract. After an excellent season where he competed for the Cy Young Award before an injury derailed his season, he will receive a hefty raise this year.

Danny Salazar, Second Year of Arbitration

Danny is a non-tender candidate. The current indication is the team will retain Danny; he made $5.5M this year, but could see a paycut since he failed to appear in a game in 2018.

Leonys Martin, Third Year of Arbitration

Martin only earned $1.75M, and did not complete the season with an illness which threatened his life. As morbid as it may be: that will affect his pay, and I am not sure how much we can reasonably expect him to make.

Nick Goody, First Year of Arbitration

This one will probably be pretty cheap. Goody was injured all season, and did not pitch well when healthy.

Cody Anderson, First Year of Arbitration

Another non-tender candidate, as Anderson recovered from Tommy John Surgery all year.

Overall, the Indians will face at least $15M in salary increases from their arbitration cases this season.

Conclusion

When considering the salary increases on guaranteed contracts, team options, and arbitration pay increases: the Tribe will likely see an increase in salary of about $32M for 2019. When combined with the $44.3M coming off the books, the Indians are only left with about $10-11M in payroll savings in 2019. That's not a ton of room to maneuver for a team trying to compete on a budget. With holes in the outfield, and the bullpen, we will struggle to find improvements to the team.

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