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The Forgotten: Pitchers

Serries so far: Centerfield, Left Field, Third Base, Right Field

I am running out of players to talk about, frankly there aren't many other players (in my judgment) who never got a shot. Well, that's not quite true: some didn't get a shot, but are talked about anyway. Everyone knows about Lou Whitaker & Bobby Grich at second base. The analytic types constantly wail and gnash their teeth on those two. Ted Simmons nearly got elected last year alongside Jack Morris & Alan Trammel. At first base the Yankee fans never shut up about Don Mattingly, and the rest of New York can't shut up about Keith Hernandez. Shortstop has an argument for being the most over-represented position in the Hall of Fame. That leaves us with pitchers, and even here many of the best pitchers outside the Hall of Fame got good conversations. However, there are a few I think deserve a fresh look.

Hall of Fame Pitchers

Starting with starting pitchers (relief pitchers are their own animal, but I do have two to mention here as well), the Hall holds most to a high standard. The JAWS standard for starters is: 73.4/50.1/61.8, which is about 20 wins higher than most position players. For reference, the last pitcher to reach 73 career bWAR was a tie between Curt Schilling & Mike Mussina; both made it to the mark in 2006. Since then starters workloads basically fell off a cliff and stayed there. Roy Halladay remained fairly durable until his untimely retirement, but even he fell short. Among active pitchers I'd argue only Zack Greinke & Clayton Kershaw have a good chance of eclipsing 70, maybe Justin Verlander. C.C. Sabathia will fall well short, and Max Scherzer has to repeat his continued dominance for a few more years before he can make it. In short: it's a tough standard.

Being good for a long time is also not enough. Kevin Brown was about as good as Schilling & Mussina and fell short. Pitchers who dominate briefly, but flame out, also fall short. The absolute brilliance of Doc Gooden was not enough, nor was Johan Santana's powerful run. Post season brilliance, on its face enough (AHEM Jack Morris), but not always. Bret Saberhagen dragged the 1985 Royals to the World Series. Orel Hershiser was brilliant for both the Dodgers and the Indians. Kenny Rogers twirled some great games himself. All fell well short. A pitcher must pitch a long time, and must reach good heights for induction (by the BBWAA at least).

In history some outliers exist, but they are usually exceptions which prove the rule. Sandy Koufax put together an epic peak, and was nearly un-hittable in the World Series, and then retired young. Two other old school pitchers, Dizzy Dean & Lefty Gomez, created mythologies before baseball expanded, and thus were inducted. But it was a different game then. Don Sutton lacked the peak you would typically expect for a Hall of Famer (as does Early Wynn) but both reached 300 wins, which is pretty much Papal Dispensation for starting pitchers. Which now leaves us to the Forgotten.

The Forgotten

Wes Ferrell (61.2/54.9/58.0) 39th

Not including 19th Century pitchers (who I completely discount when discussing modern players) & Roger Clemens (who is not in the Hall of Fame for steroids): Wes Ferrell has the highest peak score of any pitcher outside Cooperstown. I find this fascinating in its own right, why is Ferrell avoided while other pitchers ignored? Ferrell also intrigues me, because he is rather unique for a pitcher; about a sixth of his overall value came from his hitting.

Why does this matter? Who cares if Wes Ferrell was a good hitting pitcher; most pitchers are awful hitters anyway. Well, Wes Ferrell may be the best hitting pitcher of all time, and it's probably not close. For his career: Ferrell hit .280, which is pretty damn impressive. It's pretty hard to find information on oWAR for pitchers, because for the most part they don't accumulate enough plate appearances to qualify for much of anything. I looked at Silver Slugger Awards, Mike Hampton leads all pitchers in Silver Sluggers, and he was only worth about 7.5 oWAR for his career. Zambrano was worth 5. Overall, there are a handful of pitchers who probably posted decent careers as hitters, but (I think) Wes Ferrell is the best.

Well, again, why does this matter? The first thing is: Wes Ferrell was a highly underrated pitcher. Just his pitching, he was about as good as numerous excellent Hall of Famers. His peak score for pitching (not including his hitting) was 46.6, which is damn good. He was probably a better pitcher than numerous Hall of Famers at their best, I would argue, and without the hitting his 46.6 score places him among Max Scherzer & Justin Verlander for best pitching peaks of all time. Now, to be fair, Ferrell pitched in a much different time, where pitchers were expected to pitch all game long, and received fewer days of rest. Ferrell averaged over 250 innings over a regular season.

When you factor in the hitting, I think the picture becomes clearer. Ferrell's career batting line was pretty good: .280/.351/.446, which is solid. It's about a league average hitter for the time period; his OPS+ is exactly 100. His leaderboard is also quite strong. He led the league among all players once, and was top 10 five other times. He never led the league in pitching WAR, but was second four times and top 10 twice more. He led the league in ERA once, wins once, and complete games four times. Overall, Ferrell truly was an excellent pitcher in his time, and has the hitting advantage to go along with it. He nearly won the MVP award in 1935, finishing second to Hank Greenberg.

So why isn't Ferrell in the Hall of Fame? Simple: ERA. Ferrell's career ERA is over 4, which might as well be the kiss of death. Now, to be fair, Ferrell's career ERA+ of 116 is quite good. Better, in fact, than numerous obvious Hall of Famers including: Nolan Ryan, Fergie Jenkins, Robin Roberts, & Steve Carlton. Ferrell played in a big offensive era, and played much of his career in Fenway Park. When Ferrell was really good (his peak, in other words) from 1928 to 1936, Ferrell's ERA was 3.71. The rest of his career? 5.41. Ferrell cratered hard after his peak, which is why his ERA is inflated. It's also presents another problem for Ferrell: he failed to win 200 games. In Ferrell's time it's end of the road, pretty much the only two statistics worth examining were wins and ERA.

Wes Ferrel managed to enter the BBWAA ballot in 1948, and received a single vote. He got another one the next year, and never appeared on the ballot again. He was considered by the Veteran's Committee once, and got 50% of the vote, but received minimal support in 2016. There is a chance Ferrell will get more support on his next go around on next year's committee.

Bobby Shantz

Bobby Shantz is my unusual candidate, and he's technically not a starter. However, I think Shantz gets shafted in the discussions for relief pitchers in the Hall of Fame. Shantz was a contemporary of Hoyt Wilhelm, the first Hall of Fame relief pitcher, and Shantz was probably about as good. At his best: Shantz was an MVP starting pitcher. Not kidding, Shantz won the MVP award in 1952 in his only year as a full time starting pitcher. Shantz made no relief appearances, led the league in walk rate, WHIP & SO/BB, and posted a ERA+ of 159. He won 24 games (leading the league in that category as well).

Shantz would bounce around, at first as a starter, and then as a swiss-army knife starter/reliever combo. Shantz was durable, and a good fielder: he won 8 Gold Gloves as a pitcher. Overall, he finished his career at 38, although he probably could have continued.

Why Bobby Shantz? Well, if Hoyt Wilhelm was instrumental in creating the reliever (and I think he was), why not honor Shantz too? Shantz reached better heights than Wilhelm as a starter, but probably wasn't as good as a reliever. Shantz became a reliever around the same time Sarge debuted. What Shantz didn't do (but Hoyt did) is pitch forever. Shantz retired in 1964, appeared on the ballot before Sarge retired, received 2.3% of the vote, and dropped off. As best as I can tell, Shantz never appeared on the Veteran's Committee balloting.

Conclusion

There were numerous pitchers I considered for this essay. I personally think Luis Tiant belongs in the Hall of Fame, and really hope his case is reconsidered. Rick Reuschel & Kevin Brown remain quite underrated. I also think we don't give shorter careers quite enough attention; Bret Saberhagen, Doc Gooden & Orel Hershiser were amazing pitchers in their primes, and I would give them all another look. However, these two (I think) represent the most overlooked pitchers.

Of the two, Wes Ferrell is in my personal Hall of Fame for sure. I think we should take a more expansive look at each player, and Ferrell's hitting/pitching combination is enough for me. Especially when you take into consideration when and where he pitched. Shantz is more of a mixed bag. I don't think he was as good a reliever as Hoyt Wilhelm, or many of the other relievers who succeeded him. As a starter, his fame rests on one really good season where he won the MVP Award. One season isn't enough, and he's clearly not a good enough starter. When looking at the other starting pitcher/relief pitcher combinations:

Shantz wasn't as good a starter as Smoltz
Shantz wasn't as good a reliever or a starter as Eckersely
Shantz wasn't as good a reliever as Tom Gordon

Where does that leave us? Probably outside the Hall of Fame.

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