FanPost

Playoff Roster Outlook: Alonso is a Flop

The Tribe's playoff roster presents several questions to Terry Francona, and the Front Office. Josh Donaldoson already throws a wrench into the picture, and forces two position players to move off their regular positions to accommodate the former MVP. However, despite the hand-wringing over Jason Kipnis: there presents another real hole in the Tribe's lineup. I am, of course, discussing current first baseman Yonder Alonso.

The Stat Line

Yonder Alonso signed a 2 year, $16M deal with the Indians this offseason. The deal pays Yonder $7.0M in 2018, $8.0M in 2019, with an option for the 2020 season, including $1.0M buyout (option vests at 550 plate appearances in 2019). The Indians hoped to sign the breakout player who mashed homers for the Mariners and Athletics in 2017. In 521 plate appearances, Alonso batted:

.266/.365/.501, 28 HR, 22 2B, 68 BB, 118 SO, OPS+ 135

Last year was hands down Alonso's best offensive performance in his career. However, it stemmed from his decision (along with the decision of many other players) to hit more balls in the air. Outside of Alonso's 2017 season, Alonso accumulated a 103 OPS+, primarily playing first base. Thus far in 2018, Alonso's offensive performance resembles his career norms, and not his 2017 season. This year, in 524 plate appearances, Alonso has batted:

.237/.302/.414, 22 HR, 18 2B, 45 BB, 114 SO, OPS+ 91

Overall, Alonso managed to keep much of power, knocking over 20 home runs the second consecutive season. However, his walks are down, and his batting average dipped nearly 30 points. As a result, his offense went from well above average to below average. Unfortunately, his performance is not improving over time. Since the All-Star break, Alonso is batting a paltry: .199/.261/.380 with only 9 home runs, in 188 plate appearances. For the year, he's posted less than a single bWAR.

With all of this in mind, my first proposal for the Tribe's playoff roster is simple: dump Yonder Alonso.

Replacing Yonder Alonso

Alonso is effectively a dead player on the roster. First base is an offense first position, and Alonso is a below average contributor on this team. Many fans complain Kipnis will remain on the roster, but the true dead weight is not Kipnis, but Alonso. If Yonder Alonso is left off the roster, Tito can replace him with one of many players:

Option 1: Yandy Diaz

The simplest solution is to replace Yonder Alonso with Yandy Diaz as the starting first baseman on the ballclub. In limited duty, Diaz has produced much better results than Alonso, batting:

.314/.351/.443, 1 HR, OPS+ 113

Granted: this stat line screams small sample size, as Yonder has only batted 74 times this season. It also shows a few major issues with his production. Yandy does not walk much, walking only 4 times this season. Yandy also does not hit for much power; it is notable that his SLG% is under .500 despite hitting over .300. He's only knocked a single ball out of the park in his career. However, even a minimal upgrade offensively would improve the ballclub. Yonder Alonso is hitting worse with time and is overexposed against left handed pitchers; Yandy Diaz would make the roster better.

Option #2: Play Edwin at First, and Josh Donaldson at DH

This is an intriguing option, as it protects Donaldson from playing the field, while theoretically greatly improving on the offense. Ironically, in one of Donaldson's worst offensive seasons, his OPS+ of 110 is still much better than Yonder Alonso's. This also allows Tito to keep Jose Ramirez & Jason Kipnis at their original positions to start the season. The only downside is defense. Edwin Encarnacion is a pitiful fielder this late in his career, and may not perform as well offensively if forced to play the field.

Option #3: Play Kipnis or Michael Brantley at First

This is my least favorite option. However, if the Tribe is insistent on playing Donaldson at third, it's certainly better to play one of these veterans at first base. While Kipnis' batting line is worse for the season than Alonso's, his on base percentage is certainly higher, AND he's trending in the right direction, posting a 120 OPS+ over the past 28 days. If Kipnis played first base, we would limit the defensive mis-alignments. However, if Brantley played first, we would have to put Kipnis in left field. It's a less than ideal solution, but probably a better lineup than our current one.

Conclusion

It is a little too early to construct the entire post season roster, but Yonder Alonso has certainly failed as the Tribe's first baseman this season. We'd be better off with Carlos Santana, or Jesus Aguilar, and probably Yandy Diaz than spending $7.0M on Yonder. There is no reason he should remain on the roster in the most important games of the season.

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