FanPost

Manager of the Year

I recently wrote about Cleveland's award chases this year, and nobody commented on one missing award: the 2018 AL Manager of the Year Award. Now, unlike the Rookie of the Year (where the Indians lack a candidate), the MVP and the Cy Young: the Manager of the Year Award lacks the same 'chase' feel. You will notice most 'Award Watch' articles omit the Manager of the Year: Cliff Corcoran does, ESPN recently did. Despite being a major BBWAA award: Manager of the Year inevitably becomes the after thought award, and for that reason I hate it.

Look, here are the twelve recent winners of the Manager of the Year Award:

2017: Paul Molitor/Torey Lovullo
2016: Terry Francona (2)/Dave Roberts
2015: Jeff Bannister/Joe Maddon (3)
2014: Buck Showalter (2014)/Matt Williams
2013: Terry Francona/Clint Hurdle
2012: Bob Melvin (2)/Davey Johnson (2)
2011: Joe Maddon (2)/Kirk Gibson
2010: Rod Gardenhire/Bud Black
2009: Mike Scioscia/Jim Tracy
2008: Joe Maddon/Lou Pinella (3)
2007: Eric Wedge/Bob Melvin
2006: Jim Leyland/Joe Girardi

The list is a mixed bag, to say the least. Some of these managers are storied, with good, Hall of Fame careers (Terry Francona for sure, Joe Maddon is on his way). Some are long tenured managers, with average resumes (Rod Gardenhire falls into this category, Lou Pinella & Mike Scioscia are arguably both in this category as well, Bob Melvin has managed longer than I thought). The rest? Weird choices. Looking back at it: Paul Molitor was certainly not the best manager in 2017. Kirk Gibson, Jim Tracy, and Eric Wedge probably got lucky. Davey Johnson and Matt Williams were both fired the year after they won their awards. Joe Girardi was fire before he won his award. In short, we've seemingly mastered the art of determining the best position players, and pitchers, we have no idea how to quantify the value of a good manager.

A Radical Proposal

I have two proposals for this award. The first involves timing, and the second involves context:

Idea #1: When reconsidering the award, I take Joe Posnanski's proposals seriously: the BBWAA should hand the award at least every two years. Perhaps every three. At a minimum this eliminates the pesky "my team had a surprisingly good year, so I won the Manager of the Year Award" stereotype. By my calculations the above list includes several of these winners:

2006: Joe Girardi.

Girardi's Marlins finished 4th, and they gave him the award. To be fair, there were no glaring winners that year, and no team (besides the Mets) dominated the league.

2007: Eric Wedge

In retrospect Wedge was a terrible choice. 2007 remains Wedge's only playoff appearance, and his 2006 & 2008 teams wildly underachieved. In retrospect, Terry Francona was probably the better choice.

2011: Kirk Gibson

Gibson's Diamondbacks were expected to stink, and wound up in first place. They gave him the Manager of the Year Award, and the Diamondbacks never could return to the playoffs.

2017: Paul Molitor

This brings us up to date. Molitor's Twins were a surprise to everyone, including the Twins. They managed the 2nd Wild Card, and Molitor beat out Tito for the Award. This year the Twins stink, and I doubt Molitor gets any consideration this season.

Now, if we gave the award for managers every two years instead of one, we'd get radically different results, I think. Here are the two year award winners in my book (skipping 2006 for ease):

2008:

AL: Mike Scioscia
NL: Lou Pinella

Eric Wedge's Indians faltered in 2008, and Terry Francona's Red Sox were riddled with issues. I don't think Joe Maddon gets full credit for his surprise run. Joe Torre no longer managed the Yankees in 2008. Therefore I think Scioscia gets the award. The Angles won the West two seasons in a row, and won 100 games. They were a favorite in that year's playoffs.

Lou Pinella actually won the award in 2008. I think this goes to either Pinella or Manuel; and Pinella was always considered a better manager than Manuel ever was, so I think he gets the nod.

2010:

AL: Joe Maddon
NL: Charlie Manuel

Manuel's Phillies won the East twice, and both convincingly. Joe Torre could not three-peat in Los Angeles, and the remainder of the league was inconsistent.

Joe Maddon in Tampa Bay won the AL East for the 2nd time, against a dominant Yankees team. I think he squeaks out the award.

2012:

AL: Joe Girardi
NL: Bruce Bochy

The NL is another cluster. The Phillies won 102 games in 2011, and went .500 in 2012. The Giants scraped .500 in 2011, and won big in 2012. The Diamondbacks, Reds, Braves, and Brewers all fill in occasionally. I think Bochy, who by now has won a World Series and just made the playoffs again, takes the award.

Girardi's Yankees repeat as East winners, and his length of excellence wins out.

2014:

AL: Bob Melvin
NL: Mike Matheney

There were two repeat winners in the NL, I chose Matheny because Mattingly's tenure in Los Angeles was constantly questioned and ridiculed. He would leave LA in 2015. Matheny was not quite as ridiculed yet, and the consistent play gives him the award.

Bob Melvin took a cash strapped Athletics team to the playoffs twice. Jim Leyland may have won had he not retired in 2013, and the Red Sox cratered after winning the World Series.

2016:

AL: Jeff Bannister
NL: Joe Maddon

I was tempted to pick Ned Yost, which goes back to the awkwardness of this award. Had the years been 2014-2015 instead of 2015-2016 I do not doubt Yost takes home a Manager of the Year Award. Bannister's Rangers repeated in the West, and won 90+ games twice. I think that seals the deal.

Maddon took over the Cubs and took them to the playoffs twice. In 2016 the team felt special, and I think it shows.

2018:

AL: Terry Francona
NL: Joe Maddon

Which brings us to the present. There is a chance AJ Hinch takes home this award (the Astros did win the World Series after all). But I think Tito's 22 game streak takes the cake here, especially if they are forced to exclude the World Series from their consideration. Maddon, again, is consistent and is widely regarded as a great experimenter.

However, while I do think the 2 year model gives us a better overview of managers, it still is not perfect. A better idea is to simply include the playoffs in our analysis of managers. It is unusual we ignore the playoffs for managers, considering how important they enter the Hall of Fame.

Idea #2: If we included the playoffs, the MOY voting changes radically. This would also eliminate many of the weird choices we get in the voting. It would also credit the managers for what we value in them anyway. There's no way AJ Hinch loses out the 2017 Manager of the Year Award if we include the playoffs. There's no way Eric Wedge beats Francona in 2007. Bruce Bochy* would have won a Manager of the Year, at least ONCE in the past 10 years, if we included the playoffs.

*Bruce Bochy is going to the Hall of Fame someday, and won Manager of the Year once: 1996. He was barely considered the three times he won a World Series.

In short: while it could be considered fair to exclude the playoffs for players, it is ridiculous to not consider them for managers. No manager has ever been inducted into the Hall of Fame without at least two Pennants. Plenty of players have entered the Hall of Fame without World Series rings, or pennants.

I do not believe the BBWAA will reconsider the Manager of the Year Award: but it is time they considered it, and made the award relevant for once.

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