FanPost

Indians Top Prospects: #11 to #22

Thanks for all comments and well thought out responses to my honorable mention section posted last week. I'm sorry if I am late to respond but I sometimes get caught up with less fun stuff during the week. I expect to post #1 through #10 around Wednesday of this week. I appreciate the audience for my hobby!

11. Bo Naylor (C): Evaluating catchers has always been a challenge for me but I like the athleticism he has behind the plate and there are good hitting talents. I did not see any apparent reason for him to move off catcher, but he is athletic enough to play 3B or even RF in my opinion if it is ever necessary. His arm strength looked fine at catcher and should be MLB average when he’s developed. He's smaller than the average MLB catcher. He had a decent season as a hitter though a little underwhelming which kept him out of the top 10. Catching is a really difficult position to play and it takes a long time to develop so it may require patience. I generally prefer taking young guys you like as hitters and moving them off catcher because less wear-and-tear on the body and it is such a difficult position that it may slow his development, but this is just general theory from me and not specific to Naylor.

12. James Karinchak (RHP RP): Incredible strike out totals in 2019. His FB is good (95-97 mph) that he runs up in the strike zone very well (high spin and swing and miss) but his 84-85 mph CB is a plus-plus pitch. I was underwhelmed with the CB when I saw him come back from the hamstring injury, but it kept getting better and better. He still needs some refinement because his FB command is below what you’d expect for an impact MLB reliever. If he improves the FB command meaningfully (not easy) he can put up Craig Kimbrel-type numbers in MLB – Karinchak has a touch less velo but his CB is better than Kimbrel’s SL in my opinion. Karinchak’s #’s in Cleveland were very good but I don’t think he pitched as well as the numbers indicate b/c his FB command was below MLB relief standards. There is a lot of upside here, but relievers are quite volatile year-to-year. Adding him to the 40-man roster this September had its risks and they didn’t work out, but getting the MLB experience for him was worth it because he could be a very important piece to the bullpen in 2020. Excellent CB and he commands it well. If he can get his FB command improved he will be very good.

13. Bobby Bradley (1B): Bradley has excellent power and bat speed. He has defensive limitations at 1B/DH and he has struck out a lot in the minor leagues which has always concerned me. His talents are not unique at the MLB level because there are so many home runs and the strike outs indicate he has holes in his swing and/or plate coverage that MLB pitchers can exploit. Surprisingly, Bradley actually (lefty hitter) hit LHP (.295/.336/.605) better than RHP (.249/.348/.549) in 2019 so it is encouraging to see progress like that. He is capable of putting up Pedro Alvarez-like numbers at the MLB level, although at 1B/DH this does not product much WAR which is why I have him outside of the top 10 prospects. He has clear value as a plus power player in pre-arb years (2021-2024).

14. Scott Moss (LHP SP/RP): 6’5"-6’6" LHP with good leverage. His FB is most comfortably in the 90-92 mph range, though he has 93-94 mph (T 95) in his back pocket for when he wants it in tight situations. While his FB velocity is below MLB average, he releases the ball from an advantaged release point (6’5", ¾ slot) so it comes in on a harder-to-hit downward plane. I think his FB plays just fine at the MLB level. He also got some good swing and miss off his FB which surprised me. I do not think his FB is a weakness. Moss’ best offspeed pitch is an 82-85 mph CH that he throws hard. It looked like a slightly above average MLB pitch to me but he is not able to command it consistently yet (only saw two starts), which he must do if he’s going to be a good MLB pitcher. Moss throws an 82-84 mph SL and a Cut FB/Hard SL in the 85-87 mph range. I think his SL is below MLB quality right now but he commands it well. Moss gets good downward leverage but he does not throw a CB which could be helpful to work vertically more. Moss works really well inside to RHH with his FB that he also cuts in vs. them and when he is commanding his above average CH he is tough on RHH. I do not at all think Moss is a guy that needs to be a LHH-only pitcher – I think he is probably even be better vs. RHH when he is on with his CH. His most recent start @Louisville he pitched very confidently so things are clicking for him. Rule V eligible this winter and I’d certainly add him to the 40-man. I graded his FB command below MLB average (as was his CH command) so I do not think he is ready for MLB now and probably not ready in spring of 2020, but some improvement next year and this guy can log some good innings for the MLB team. He has 3’ish (I’m lumping his SL and Cut FB/SL together) MLB quality pitches, good leverage and I think can be an effective, though probably not >2 WAR, MLB pitcher capable of starting in the future.

15. Aaron Bracho (2B): Signed out of Venezuela for $1.5MM in 2018, Bracho is an offensive-oriented 2B. Unlike Brayan Rocchio, Bracho is already physically mature. He has a strong, sturdy body and generates really good bat speed. He resembles Rougned Odor to me, but encouragingly he made good contact in Arizona and had a 23:21 BB-to-K in 108 AB’s. His range in the middle infield will be below average and I don’t see a future SS at all but he’s got infield actions so he can play at 2B. I am anxious to see how he makes contact in full-season ball because he’s done well already and the swing is impressive. I don’t know that he’s got the power potential Odor has now, but there are physical similarities there. If he makes good contact next year and continues to show good BB/K ratios, we can get excited.

16. Lenny Torres Jr. (RHP SP): 1st supplemental round pick in 2018 although had Tommy John surgery this spring. I saw Torres before his senior year in HS and I really liked him because of his command orientation. He is not a flashy HS prospect because he’s 6’1", 190 lbs but is polished and he generates good velocity (I saw 90-95 mph in the high school showcases). Compared to other HS pitching prospects, Torres has plus command of his pitches which is surprising considering (1) he is as old as a handful of HS guys just taken in the 2019 draft (Torres was very young for a HS player in the 2018 draft) and (2) he is a cold-weather pitcher (from New York). I don’t think his breaking ball or CH stood out as plus pitches, but he’s still very young and I really liked the polish. If he bounces back from TJ well, he could move quickly but the first year back from TJ normally requires working off the rust.

17. Carlos Vargas (RHP RP/SP): I think Vargas arguably has the best raw pitching talents of anyone on this prospect list. 6’3", 180 lbs with a very quick arm that generates a 92-97 mph FB, plenty of physical projection and an excellent SL (85-88 mph) that is a clear swing-and-miss pitch. Some of the SL’s Vargas threw in Mahoning Valley would have received swings and misses from good MLB hitters. Vargas does have effort in his delivery, has a modest head jerk and falls off the mound – these are generally attributes of relievers but he is still so young and early in his development that he needs to develop as a SP. Vargas can lose his mechanics at times and frequently demonstrates emotion on the mound, letting things he cannot control bother him too much. These things need to be improved. If developed well, it is not difficult to see Vargas sitting 95-99 mph with an elite SL (a 6’3" version of K-Rod) but there is a long way to go.

18. Sam Hentges (LHP SP): Hentges is big (6’7", 230 lbs -- this is very good weight, not heavy) and he is surprisingly athletic and coordinated for his size. Very long legs which give him clear leverage advantages. Hentges looks very major league. Only saw one start but he sits 91-93 mph with good movement and he also throws a CT FB often. His SL is a good pitch with good depth and movement. I did not see much of a CH. His FB, SL and CT FB were all MLB caliber pitches, and his advantageous release point makes all of those pitches play up. I did not see good command of his FB in the start that I saw, and I’d categorize it as below average for a Double-A pitcher but this was just one start. He is very large so nailing down a consistent delivery is challenging. I love the leverage advantages but sometimes pitchers are too big and long in that it is more challenging to command your pitches consistently (syncing long levers is tough) and you have to do that at the MLB level so I worry about that with Hentges. Hentges fell off the map a little this year with some ugly numbers (5.11 ERA and 1.65 WHIP), but he was the victim of a .355 BABIP in Akron and his FIP was 3.84. I think his stuff looked good and he projects very well to the MLB level. He’s on the 40-man roster and he needs to remain on it in my opinion. Guys this big take longer to develop.

19. Eli Morgan (RHP RP/SP): Morgan is 5’10", 190 lbs and has been successful at all levels. He has a strong upper body and is strong than you’d think. His FB is only 88-92 (T 94) and often types like him struggle once they get to AA, but Morgan just had a fairly successful season in Akron. Morgan has a great CH (looks ridiculous at times) and I think he has a good CB and SL, too. I believe he has two CH’s, one in the 74-75 mph range and another in the 78-80 mph range. Morgan’s SL is 81-85 mph and his CB is 79-80 mph. I was surprised but I saw Morgan throw a 4-seam FB routinely at 93 mph and a couple 94’s in the first inning of work in one of his starts, but this was with poor command. Morgan has effort in his delivery when he’s in the low 90’s and it contributes to poor FB execution. I do not think Morgan profiles as a starter in MLB because his FB is not a good enough pitch – at 5’10" the FB comes in more flat than you want if you’re only 87-90 mph (this is his comfort velocity IMO). I think his future is in the bullpen and I think he can potentially make it work. In the three starts I saw, Morgan was 44% FB, 35% breaking balls (CB & SL) and 21% CH. His offspeed pitches are all MLB caliber and he commands them well, so I think a focus on these pitches could translate to getting MLB outs. The upside comp that works best for me on Eli Morgan is Yusmeiro Petit. Petit is 6’0", sits 88-90 mph and throws his FB 45-48% of the time, relying on a SL, CH and CB. Petit is a plus command guy with his FB so Morgan needs to improve in this regard (FB command), but it is within him. Morgan is very crafty with numerous pitch offerings and I can see him being a useful MLB pitcher in 1-2 inning relief appearances with an off-speed heavy attack similar to Petit if all goes well.

20. Adam Scott (LHP RP/SP): 6’4", 225 lbs LHP. A senior sign out of a smaller college in 2017. Scouts likely scoffed at him b/c he was pronounced short-armer as an amateur. Today, while I still see the short-armer in him, he is materially improved from where he was in college which allows him to better use his leverage. Scott is probably the most underrated prospect in the farm system. Scott throws low 90’s (I have seen him hit 93 multiple times in one his starts) and he has a MLB quality slider that is thrown 85-87 mph. Scott doesn’t look like what scouts want b/c he’s got a lower arm slot and he still is a short armer by MLB standards, but he’s deceptive/funky and can pump his FB by both LH and RH hitters. Scott still has room to improve b/c there is inconsistency there on his release point (misses spot badly at times) but he is quite precise with command more often than other pitching prospects. Potentially a plus command guy with more refinement and he is effective with a MLB quality SL. Scott also throws a CB occasionally and a CH occasionally, both pitches have potential but he is not as effective with them yet. If healthy, I think this guy is a MLB pitcher. He definitely can be a LHP reliever because the FB/SL combo with the lower arm slot works well for him, but he has potential that should be developed to be a SP if he develops his other pitches. Scott has a very good pick-off move. These are the types of guys that do very well with the Indians – potentially above average command, MLB quality leverage and a MLB quality breaking ball. Also the year-to-year improvement is encouraging and Scott has shown that. If the Indians wanted, he reasonably could be in a MLB bullpen in 2020 but I’d prefer him to develop as a SP and work on his other pitches. Scott is underrated.

21. Oscar Gonzalez (Corner OF): Gonzalez, 6’2", 190 lbs, is one of the better kept secrets in the farm system, mainly because he generates very good bat speed and a short, compact swing for a powerful guy. He is an impatient hitter that historically has swung at bad pitches but despite weak plate discipline he has managed to put up good production because I believe he has good hitting talents. Only 21 years old and he’s .292/.325/.444 in full-season A-ball (Lake County and Lynchburg). Gonzalez is a FB hitter and has a line-drive swing. Seeing him turn on FB’s inside with his bat speed is quite a treat, although he is vulnerable to SL’s from RHP’s. He has a tendency to pull off on the ball so there is stuff to clean up and pitch recognition needs to improve. I recognize he struggles with important pieces of the formula needed to be a good MLB hitter (mainly plate discipline), but he has the requisite talents you want in an offensive contributor at the MLB level. I honestly think it’s a joke he is not on the FG or MLB Pipeline prospect lists.

22. Cody Morris (RHP SP): I saw Morris a good deal in college at South Carolina and he’s developed well since. Always had talent with a pitcher’s body. In college he was 91-95 mph with a good CH, though I never saw him throw a good breaking ball on a reliable basis at South Carolina. With Lake County this year I saw 91-94 (T 95) with movement and it was evident to me that he’s improved his CB very well and it looks MLB quality. Morris at times looks like he’s short-arming a bit which I think has turned some scouts off – it’s not how you’d draw up a delivery but if he can make it work that is fine. He had TJ surgery in 2015 before college. His stuff is MLB caliber and he has a projectable body frame and I think he was a really good value in the 7th round last in 2018. Definitely had a good year in 2019 and I think it was because he’s developed a good CB.

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