FanPost

Bobby Abreu: the Case Against WAR

Race to 400 Points

Hitting: 370 points

Fielding: 0 points

Baserunning: 30 points

Black Ink: 10 points

All-Star Bonus: 4 points

Gold Glove/Silver Slugger Bonus: 6 points

Solid but Unnoticed Postseason Performance: 5 points

Total: 425 points

Joe Posnanski calls Bobby Abreu the most boring good player of all time and it's not hard to see why. I anticipated writing an article about how Abreu is an underrated three way player, who did all things well (but nothing exceptional) but sadly I cannot write that article. Abreu leaves you with a sense of befuddlement which I cannot quite place.

First off, for a right fielder: Bobby Abreu is not an exceptional hitter. Do not mistake me Abreu was a good hitter, but typically not a great one. We just reviewed Larry Walker, who was a Hall of Fame hitter. Abreu's hitting falls a bit short. Even when you consider Grey Ink (ranking in the top 10 in categories) Abreu leaves something to be desired; his Grey Ink score of 88 falls well short of the Hall of Fame average of 144. His Black Ink score is nonexistent. However, looking at his rate stats we can see Abreu provided more with the bat than memory allows: .291/.395/.475. He falls just short in two of the slash categories of greatness; that on-base percentage is excellent and better than Vladimir Guerrero's.

I suspect the biggest issue with analyzing Abreu is most of his power stemmed from doubles. Abreu hit 574 doubles in his career, which is a lot; he ranks 25th all time in doubles, tied with Charlie Gerhinger. Overall in the biggest homerun era of all time, Abreu conspicuously fell short of the homerun power which defined the biggest hitters of his generation. This drags his slugging percentage down, and limits his offensive value.

However, where Abreu shines is his strong batting averages, and keen batting eye. In fact, Abreu ranks 11th all time in on-base percentage for right fielders (minimum 5,000 plate appearances). That's ahead of Frank Robinson, Tony Gwynn, & Al Kaline. While Abreu lacked home run power, he ranked in the top 10 in walks 13 times (leading the Majors in 2006). Eight times he ranked in the top 10 in on-base percentage (although never higher than 3rd). Abreu truly was an underrated offensive player, a table setter trapped in the wrong position as right fielders traditionally hit for far more power.

Then again, his underrated bat did not lead him to becoming one of the best players in baseball. He ranked in the top 10 in baseball in WAR for position players five times, and never higher than 7th. A good offensive player, he never ranked higher than 6th in offensive WAR. In some ways Bobby Abreu is a poor man's Ichiro Suzuki with more power. Like Abreu, Suzuki was a table setter playing in right field. The difference is Suzuki was not just a hit machine, but a transcendent defender and a great baserunner who reached 3,000 hits. Abreu was neither of those things and while he played a long time, fell well short of 3,000 hits (he didn't even reach 2,500).

Another thing hampering Abreu is the low profile of the teams he played on. He debuted in Houston and got two cups of coffee in Texas before playing on generally awful Phillies teams before being traded to New York. In New York Abreu played well, and finally made the postseason, but was overshadowed by Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, and Mariano Rivera. He signed a good free agent contract with Los Angeles (sadly the less famous LA team), struggled to recapture his old form, and retired after part time duty in Dodger's blue and with the Mets.

At the end of the day, how you evaluate Bobby Abreu stems from how important you view on-base percentage. Offensively it was his best skill, and while Abreu fielded well as a young man, and generally ran the bases well his entire career: he's really just an underrated hitter. I usually find people shrugging their shoulders and calling a player a 'compiler' misguided, but with Abreu I feel they're likely correct. Abreu ranks 20th in RF JAWS due to a pretty long career (60.0 bWAR). Frankly I do not see much difference between him and, say: Brian Giles.

The only thing perplexing me is his high WAR. By JAWS there was little difference in value between him and Vladimir Guerrero, which stuns me. I do think Vlady was a better player than Abreu, and yet WAR seems to think they're about the same. For this reason, I hope Abreu sticks around on the ballot, so we can take another look next year. I think WAR is overestimating his value, hence the title, but I want to consider him again next year.

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