FanPost

Indians Top 100 prospects 2020, 19-39

Here's part 3 of the Top 100. 
Tier 5 Overachieving Perfomers
19. LHP S. Moss

Of 70 AA/AAA minor league pitchers with 130+ innings, the 6'5 Moss was 2nd in K/9 (10.95) and 5th in ERA and FIP. The top 10 in those categories features some of the best pitching prospects like Ian Anderson, Matt Manning and Justin Dunn. Moss doesn't have their stuff, but he's performed at their level. A better comp is probably another LHP on that top 10 list, Zac Lowther. Moss is what many hoped Hentges would develop into. He was added to the 40 roster and is immediate SP depth or LH pen depth if he struggles with control.

20. RHP E. Morgan

Morgan was just outside my top 10 last year along with Civale and he hasn't really done anything to hurt his stock, but because of the system's impressive depth, he drops to 20, which is still much higher than the known outlets. Morgan is another performing SP in the Indians system that scouts like to explain away, because he's 5'10 and his FB barely reaches 90 and sits 86-88. Yet, there he is in the top 10 of AA pitchers with a 13,2% SwStr, so he's missing bats. Of course that's because of that plus plus changeup he has in his arsenal that plays well off his FB and has enough separation. His change is one of the best in the minors and not many pitching prospects have a 70 pitch. Eli Morgan will pitch in the Majors, he's beaten odds and any level he was thrown at. Maybe it's time to give him some credit. He's something between Tomlin and Marco Estrada and be the next Indians SP that makes scouts look stupid.

21. MIF E. Clement

Welcome to the elite SwStr% portion of the rankings. Get this, out of almost 1500 qualifying bats in all of Milb, the Indians have 4 of the top 16 lowest SwStr%. Clement is tied for 10th on a list that is headed by Nick Madrigal and features Wander Franco, Xavier Edwards and our own Tyler Freeman and the following two on this list. Nice company. This elite contact ability is obviously something CLEFO values. But there's more good to say about Clement. For one, he's been able to stay at SS despite many scouts doubting his ability there, arguing he'd be a better fit at 2B or even CF. Per Clay Davenport's publicly available metric, Clement was above average at SS (+3). His slash line looks uninspiring, but he was BABIPed. He was back to normal in AFL play in the fall. He's a .280+ bat with speed. Won best hitter in Cape Cod play before his draft season. He significantly reduced his GB%, indicating he was work3on a swing change. He did impress last ST (80 grade bunter too, lol) and is immediate MIF depth in Columbus. He's certainly in the mix for the starting 2B job or even SS, if Lindor gets traded after our 2020 WS title.

22. MIF J. Fermin

Fermin checks in 8th on that SwStr% list and for the second straight season had more walks than Ks. He has a similar profile to Clement, but Fermin draws more walks and projects for better OBP. He's played both 2B and SS, with good grades at 2B and average at SS. He was a mid level IFA signing that struggled in rookie ball, but started to show his talent after natural growth. He'll turn 21yo at the start of the season and open in A+. He's overlooked a bit because of all the other MIF prospects, but his development has sleeper written all over it.


23. OF S. Kwan

Kwan had the 3rd best SwStr% in all of MiLB in his first full season as a pro. That alone is impressive, but he was also the only Indians 2018 draftee (and one of only a handful hitters overall) that jumped class A entirely and was assigned straight to A+. And if that's not enough, he was the youngest college junior out of the draft, so he was 21yo the entire season. Yet, non-Indians scouts hate him because he's tiny, 5'9ish. He had crazy college stats at the biggest and best college in Oregon State. He was their leadoff hitter with 3 times as many walks as strikeouts. Is there such a thing as a big school sleeper? Scouts say he has no tools, but I say the biggest tools are those scouts. Kwan will open as a 22yo in the Akron OF, well ahead of the age for the level.

24. OF K. Tom

It pains me to rank Tom this low, but there's just too many. We all know the story. AAA breakout, left unprotected for the Rule 5 draft, but no other team bothered taking him. Similar to Kwan, he was a tiny big school (Kentucky SEC) performer that dropped to the 5th round and continued to hit. Tom has posted wRc+ over 100 every year in theminors. He changed himself from a GB heavy hitter to fly ball heavy profile which helps explain his gradually improving ISO that exploded last year. He should get a ST invite and I hope he gets a chance along the way.

25. MIF R. Palacios

Like Kwan, Palacios had a good chance to start in A+ after impressing in his debut. Also a low SwStr% Bat, with plus plus speed and crazy BB/K in college. This is a very aggressive ranking considering he missed the entire 2019 season, but I believe he belongs here on talent.

26. RHP Gaddis

Gaddis was listed as a top 50-100 pick (late 2nd to 3rd) going into his junior year at Georgia State. He came off two good seasons there and had a good Cape showing against better competition. Then baseball happened. Despite improving his K/9 and K/BB, his ERA blew up. It was over 5 most of the season and he got it just under 5 before the draft. That's how CLEFO stole him at the end of round 5 (for 4th rd money though). He put up crazy numbers in his debut and should make quick work of A Ball. He's a huge dude at 6'6 with a solid FB (with room for more) and his best pitch is what FG calls a Bugs bunny changeup. If you're looking for another college arm that'll surprise, get to know Hunter Gaddis.

27. RHP JC Mejia

Mejia was added (and since kept) to the 40 roster. His 2019 was cut short to 8 starts and only 33IP in A+. Both his FIP and xFIP were well below 3. He has good solid stuff and good command of it. He just needs a healthy season to breakout.

28. LHP A. Scott

Another one I'd like to rank higher, but that's why ranking in tiers makes sense. There's no huge separation within a tier, just preference, nuances, gut feeling and bias. Scott was a budget saving, very old/class SR signing from a small school (Wofford). Still, FOs don't just punt high picks, so Scott has some talent and it's showing up in his stats. He's reached AA in his first pro season, so he managed to make up the years he was behind level. He'll be 24yo all season and is AA/AAA SP depth already. He's another Indians prospect performer scouts give zero credit to. Indians had him work out of the pen right after the draft, but shifted him to SP in 2019. That's a good sign, indicating that the stuff was even better as expected and he could be fast tracked as a SP too.

29. OF O. Gonzalez

I had him a bit higher initially, but I want to see him do it in AA first. His statistical profile is so odd. He hates taking walks, leading to a low OBP and suppressing his power in games. He had a breakout 129 wRc+ as a 21yo in A+, though on an unsustainable 353 BABIP, but I'm still in the fence. All I know is he should be ranked over Benson, which I did.

30. OF J. Rodriguez

Rodriguez was one of the youngest players in the 2017 draft, so a slow burn was to be expected. He finally got to some power as a teenager in MV, although at the cost of more Ks. Many may have forgotten about him by now, but he's still an interesting projection prospect with back to back wRc+ seasons over 120.

31. RHP L. Oviedo

His 2019 was derailed by injuries, so he gets a pass for now. The stuff is still in there and he's still only 20yo, so plenty of time left, even if he repeats A-Ball

32. RHP N. Sandlin

Another arm that went on the shelf. Sandlin was on the fast track to the Indians bullpen before the injury with K/9 rates over 14 at 3 different levels. His slider projects to be a weapon vs RHB, but will his FB play? Is he just a RH version of Crockett? The optimists see a Joe Smith-light. I'm taking the middle and say a better Cimber. Hey remember, good Cimber was good.

33. LHP K. Nelson

Everybody is rightfully talking about Karinchak, but Nelson has progressed just as fast and even though he was taken in the same draft, he's almost a year younger. Steady 12+K/9 through all levels, you're looking at our primary LH reliever option in Columbus.



Tier 6 Fallen Angels and Unknowns

34. 3B/2B Yu Chang
35. LHP S. Hentges
36. INF G. Rodriguez
37. INF Sanquintin
38. OF Benson
39. INF R. Delgado

Obviously, I'm lower than most on these prospects. It's a bit too early for the two big IFA signings, but I couldn't put them higher just on pedigree and their debuts were far away from from the 17 IFA group. Btw, I didn't rank any 2019 IFA signing that hasn't even played a DSL game yet, that's why you don't see Pastrano on this list. Same goes for the big pitching investment from 17 Soteldo (650K), who still a teenager but hasn't pitched yet because of injuries.

Back to this group, Chang has lost a lot of shine and now seems like a depth option among many. He needs a big year to stay relevant, even if that's just AAA, a level he hasn't mastered yet btw. Hentges is probably a reliever, but he could be useful there and he doesn't have much competition to break through. Chang and Hentges topped my trade chip list for 2-3 years, but at this point, I'd hold onto them since the return wouldn't be worth it. Benson by all accounts is a great dude and I hope something clicks or he finds a bat whisperer, but it's not looking good. I hope he makes me eat my words. Delgado landed here because I couldn't find an appropriate landing spot. Probably should have been in tier 8, but he has enough hit and power upside to barely remain here. He's still an unknown and for a guy that got 2nd rd money, the results have been meh, but not bad enough to lose hope. He was also young for the level as a 19yo playing against mostly college players.

Damn, I'm exhausted. As always, your comments and discussions are appreciated

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