FanPost

Should We Fix Major League Baseball's Playoff Structure?

Joel Sherman reported on February 10th that Major League Baseball discussed, and will openly consider, amending its playoff structure. The theory being with tanking at a cyclical high (and without a logical end in sight): the league must do something to encourage teams to stop tanking and at least try to reach the .500 mark. If more teams earn a chance at the playoffs, there's more incentive to compete.

What is the Point of a Playoff Season?

Before we continue I want to ask a question I posed on Ron Y's recent article (which is worth a read): what's the point of the playoffs? Obviously, to crown a champion, and in most sports a tournament offers a good opportunity to provide one. In football, for example, during a short 16 game season, a single game represents 1/16th of a whole season. NCAA basketball plays a lengthy tournament consisting of six rounds, with a final champion crowned after six consecutive wins. The NBA & the NHL play lengthy regular seasons followed by marathon post seasons with roughly half of each league participating. Overall, in American sports: tournaments and champions are largely determined by short, decisive, series.

Baseball is no different. Since 1904 Major League Baseball crowned a 'World Champion' after a nine or seven game series. However, baseball, with its 162 game marathon of a regular season is less volatile: we typically know, or have a strong general idea, who the best team is in each division and league. The World Series' seven game set represents less than 5% of the baseball regular season. In short: baseball plays more games to crown a champion decided by a subset of games representing a smaller percentage of the entirety of its season than football.

Overall, the purpose of any postseason format is to definitively crown a single champion from a large league. In baseball the goal is to whittle down 30 teams to 1 champion. After a lengthy 162 game season (the longest in sports): this is no easy task.

The Baseball Playoff Structure

When the National & American leagues originally conceived of the World Series two pennant winning teams, representing the team with the best record from both leagues, would automatically earn entrance to the World Series. With only eight teams in each league a single series of games sufficed to determine a champion. Given the nature of both the leagues, and the series: a single round tournament fairly crowned a winner each season. Since 1969 Major League Baseball expanded the playoffs by splitting each league into divisions. First only an Eastern & Western division participated necessitating two playoff rounds. 1995 saw the introduction of an additional round with the new Central Division and a Wild Card playing in the new Division Series. Today, since 2012, the addition of a second Wild Card team forced the two Wild Cards to play each other to earn their way into the Division Series, adding a fourth playoff round.

Overall, since 1969 the number of times the 'best' team wins the World Series has decreased over time. If we consider the team with the best record the best team in the league: the number of times the 'best' team wins will decrease dramatically. Before 1969 the 'best' team had roughly a 50/50 shot of winning the crown, today the odds decrease with every additional round of the playoffs. In modern baseball the playoff structure is widely considered a crapshoot. The team with the best record has won the World Series a total of five times since 2000 (if I give ties half credit). That's a 25% win rate, which is not particularly high.

Which brings us to the proposal from Rob Manfred to expand the playoffs: again. The idea is convoluted compared to previous playoff expansions. Instead of two Wild Card teams: Rob Manfred would have four. Instead of the Wild Card teams playing each other to earn the right to play division champions, Manfred would have the Division champions choose their opponents. Instead of a moderately intuitive structure: Manfred wants TV drama. It goes against, I think the nature of the sport.

Look, the 1969 & 1995 expansions were tied to more teams and new divisions. In '69 Major League Baseball had expanded from a regional sport centered in the Mid-Atlantic to a truly national sport with 24 teams. Baseball had to expand the playoffs, otherwise a vast majority of the teams would rarely sniff the playoffs (especially with the Yankees constant dominance in the American League). In '95 Major League Baseball added four more teams, and the country had changed. NFL's dominance (and the NBA's rise) created a new thirst for postseason play. Dividing the league again made sense, along with the additional Wild Card, made sense. The NFL had a Wild Card team in the playoffs since the 1970s. The NBA had an eight team structure despite only fielding 10 teams nationwide since the '60s. In short: baseball was not radically chartering a new playoff course, but merely joining its major sport cohorts in a longer playoffs. The 2012 changes were relatively more radical. Major League Baseball now fielded 30 teams (since 1998), but only supported eight playoff teams or a bit over a quarter of the league. To help support additional competitiveness a second Wild Card team was added to expand the playoffs to a third of the league, and add a fourth round. To add complexity, the team with the best record in each league (the number one seed) gets a bye in the first round.

Overall, besides the 2012 expansion, Major League Baseball generally increased the size of the playoffs by adding more champions: champions of a similarly sized pie. Major League Baseball basically combined after the scandal of the 1919 Black Sox in 1920. In 1920: the American League Champion Cleveland Indians defeated seven American League opponents to face the Brooklyn Dodgers who also defeated seven teams. In short: each team needed to defeat seven opponents to enter the playoffs. Since there were only 16 teams Major League Baseball required only a single round for the playoffs. In 1969 Major League Baseball divided into four six team divisions. Instead of beating seven teams, each team only needed to beat five. However, to advance to the World Series (which mattered a lot) you needed to advance through a second playoff round. In 1995 Baseball split into, roughly, six five team divisions.

Over history the number of teams required to beat dropped (by one), but you added a round to the playoffs to compensate. There's a pattern: legitimacy comes from champions advancing against, largely, other champions. Since the 1995 Wild Card Era six teams won the World Series without winning a division (the '97 and '03 Marlins, the '02 Angels, '04 Red Sox, '11 Cardinals, and '14 Giants). This percentage is still relatively low, less than a quarter of total World Series champions. However, the new system will almost certainly increase this number. For the first time: more non-champion teams will earn playoff berths than champions. By shear mathematics the likelihood of a Wild Card to win the World Series will increase. More concerning is the quality of the teams entering the playoffs. In many seasons teams with a losing record will earn playoff berths. To me, this is intolerable. Especially for a sport like baseball.

Does the Playoff Structure Require Fixing?

Before we consider this question, lets critique the proposed changes.

The reason why Manfred is considering expanding the playoffs is simple: lots of teams are tanking. If we add more playoff teams more teams will compete, the thinking goes. I disagree. There are several reasons why the expanded playoffs will not offer the intended result. First: the best team skips the most volatile round. While this is intended as a feature, it is actually a bug. By forgoing the most volatile round of the playoffs the better team becomes more difficult to beat, which reduces the value of a playoff berth. If super teams can still dominate in the playoffs, more teams will tank in order to offer themselves the best chance to become said super team (and therefore ignore the value of the lower level playoff berths). Second, financially lower level teams gain little benefit from a playoff berth. A big problem with the current structure is the Wild Card teams are not guaranteed a playoff game in their home park. The new structure does nothing to fix this problem. If teams do not get a big financial benefit from playing in the postseason they will not spend crucial resources in reaching them (especially if their odds against the best team remain poor).

The third problem with the structure is it reduces the importance of the regular season. Not only does it reduce the legitimacy of the World Series: it reduces the point of fighting for a playoff spot. Why attempt to get much better, if the difference between a 90 win season and an 80 win season is the same three game series? If only the best record matters, its likely the same two teams will dominate each league perennially.

In short: I hate the new idea, and I hope Manfred dumps it, at his earliest convenience.

Now, does the playoff structure require fixing? In some ways yes, but not because the structure currently sucks. The fact Major League Baseball reduced the strength of a Wild Card berth is a good thing. If Major League Baseball insists on divisions (which I think it should): they should matter. Of the six Wild Card teams which won a World Series, five of them came before the addition of a second Wild Card. However, we can do better. Here's my proposal to improve, not fix, the postseason:

1. Add two teams. This gives each league 16 teams instead of 15. This will allow the league to add two new divisions

2. Eliminate the Wild Card. This means every team which makes the playoffs is a champion of their own division. No more second place finishers.

3. Eliminate inter-league play. If baseball requires it: keep it to one team. This way, the schedule is focused on winning your own division. Rivalries play a larger role in the league.

4. Make the initial round seven games. This adds games, without adding complexity. It also ensures each team gets at least two playoff games, and their only game is never an elimination game. This is the financial incentive to reach the playoffs.

Overall, this makes an eight playoff team structure, which increases legitimacy. It creates less confusion, and increases rivalries.

Conclusion

There are many ways to skin the cat. I am a fan of keeping baseball tied to its traditions. Baseball does best when its hewing to its history. Divisions remind older fans of the old pennant races, and also eliminates frustration of a second place team winning. Win your division, make the playoffs. No gimmicks, only champions.

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